Lecture 4 Urban Transportation
Planning Concepts and
Travel demand
Transportation Planning/
forecasting
• is the attempt of estimating
• the number of vehicles or people that will
use a specific transportation facility (land ,
sea, air)
• in the future.
• Specifically ,It estimates:
• 1.number of vehicles on a planned road or
bridge,
• 2, ridership on a railway line,
• 3. number of passengers visiting an airport,
• 4.number of ships calling on a seaport.
Data Collected in Transpo Planning
• data on current traffic/ traffic volume
(ADT, AADT)
• population,
• Employment type
• trip rates,
• travel costs,
• distance
• Use of land
• (agri, commercial
• School?)
• etc.,
How is transportation planning/
forecast done?
• traditionally followed the sequential
• 4 step model or urban transportation
planning (UTP) procedure,
Four Step Model (4SM)
• Is a method for traffic forecasting
• Developed in 1950s by Detroit Metro
Traffic
• Basis for urban transportation
planning./ highway planning
• 1. used to project future traffic
• 2.Predict change in travel pattern
• 3. basis for new road capacity,
•
• 4.used in changes in land use policies
and patterns.
Choice of destination
Step 1 :Trip Generation(trip frequency)
• Trip generation is the first step in the conventional
four-step transportation forecasting process
• TRIP
• A trip is defined as a single journey made by
an individual between two points (A and B)
• Origin(production point) to destination
(attraction point)
Trip Generation
(Trip Frequency)
In simple terms Trip Generation / frequency
does two things:
• 1.It predicts number of trips that will occur from a
point of origin(production)
• 2. It also predicts the number of trips that will go
to a point of destination (attraction)
Trip Generation is dependent in the ff
factors
• Factors influencing Trip Production (origin)
• No. of workers in a household.(more workers
more trip)
• No. of Students. (more students more trip)
• Household size and composition.
• The household income.(more money more
trip made)
• number of cars (more vehicles more trip
made)
Factors influencing Trip
Attraction(destination)
• employment opportunities
(if more employment opportunities… people are
attracted to that place)
• Floor area for residence
• service, offices manufacturing and wholesale areas.
• School and college enrolment
• Other activity centers like transport terminals, sports
stadium, fitness gyms
• recreational/ cultural/religious places
• Religious activities, number of churches
Observed trip making from the Twin Cities (2000-2001) Travel Behavior Inventory by Gender
Trip Purpose Males Females Total
Work 4008 3691 7691
Work related 1325 698 2023
Attending school 495 465 960
Other school activities 108 134 242
Childcare, daycare, after
111 115 226
school care
Quickstop 45 51 96
Shopping 2972 4347 7319
Visit friends or relatives 856 1086 1942
Personal business 3174 3928 7102
Eat meal outside of home 1465 1754 3219
Entertainment,
1394 1399 2793
recreation, fitness
Civic or religious 307 462 769
Pick up or drop off
1612 2490 4102
passengers
With another person at
64 48 112
their activities
Analysis of Data
• Most trips made by both ,male and female are work related
• Females make MORE trips for shopping than males
• Females make more trips for personal business ventures
• Both male and female make same number of trips for
entertainment purposes(movies, fitness etc)
• Male and female avoid making trips with a companion
• They want to travel alone
Trip Generation
• Trip estimation may be analyzed by the ff:
• 1.Linear regression analysis
• 2.Multiple regression analysis
• 3.cross classification method
• 4,experience based analysis
Trip Generation
• By Linear Regression Analysis
Example in Trip Generation
Therefore if there is a household
cosisting of X= 9 members
• How many trips will they make?
• Using linear regression equation…
• Y= 1.4 + 1.4 (X)
• Y=1.4+ 1.4(9)
• Y= number of trips = 14 trips per day
Trip Generation by
• Cross Classification method
• measures the changes in one variable (trips)
when other variables
• income,
• car ownership ,
• employment,
• purpose of trip
• School enrolled .
• land use etc
• .) are taken into consideration.
Trip Generation by Cross Classification
• Their income as well as number of cars if any is obtained in this
study
Graph :Trip per household (Y) and Income(X) axis
Conclusion
Trip Generation
• By Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
• end
Trip Distribution
• Where to?
• (Destination choice)
• It matches origins with destinations,
• often using a gravity model–
• takes into account the activity at the origin and destination
as well as
• the travel cost to go between them
Trip distribution by Gravity or growth
factor model
Mode Choice
• What mode of transport?
computes the proportion of trips between each origin and
destination that use a particular transportation mode.
• (This modal model may be of the logit form, developed by
Nobel Prize winner Daniel McFadden.)
Route Assignment
• Which Route?
• determine the routes travelers choose to reach their
destinations.
• Route assignment, route choice, or traffic assignment
concerns the selection of routes between origins and
destinations in transportation networks.
• It is the fourth step in the conventional transportation
forecasting model, following Trip Generation,
Destination Choice, and Mode Choice.
Route assignment for 3 vehicles
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
where to?
• BY GRAVITY MODEL METHOD
• The most widely used and documented trip
distribution model is the gravity model,
• which states that the number of trips between
two zones is directly proportional to
• the number of trip attractions generated by
the zone of destination and inversely
• proportional to a function of time of travel
between the two zones
--
Trip Distribution
• By Uniform Growth Factor Method
• Growth factor methods assume that in the future the
tripmaking pattern will remain substantially the same
as today but that the volume of trips will increase
according to the growth of the generating and
attracting zones.
• These methods are simpler than synthetic methods
and for small towns where considerable changes in
land-use and external factors are not·expected, they
have often been considered adequate
Sample Traffic Growth Factors
Trip Distribution
• BY Fratar Method
• By T.J. fratar
• a mathematical formula that proportions future trip
generation estimates to each zone as a function of:
• 1. the product of the current trips between the two
zones Tij and
• 2.the growth factor of the attracting zone Gj.
Fratar Method is a
• Vehicular trip distributions by successive
approximations,
Fratar Formula given below
Fratar
5 year forecast
Matrix 1
Matrix 1
Compute Fratar Growth Factor (F) for
Matrix 1
• F= Pi= Future trips
pi present trip
F= 437 = 2.22 is not equal to unity (continue )
196 in iteration
Note if Fratar Growth Factor is 1, then iteration
may be stopped
Now use the Fratar formula obtain Tij , Li and Lj
And prepare a new Matrix 2
Matrix 1
obtain Li and Lj
Place values of Li and Lj in matrix 1
Obtain Values of Tij
Create Matrix 2 : Place computed values in new O/D
Obtain overall Growth factor (F) of matrix 2
If computed Growth Factor (F) is almost unity or (1),
Iteration may be stopped and ended
Matrix 2 is the distribution of Trips in 5 year forecast
Matrix 1
• End
Modal Split / Mode Choice
• What mode of transport?
computes the proportion of trips between each
origin and destination that use a particular
transportation mode.(car? Bus? Tricycle? Etc)
Modal Split/ Mode Choice
• After completing the Trip Distribution Analysis,
we need to determine what transportation
system each of those travelers will use.
• Mode choice models estimate how many people
will use public transit and how many will use
private automobiles.
• The most common form of the mode choice
model is the logit model.
Modal Split
• (This modal model may be of the logit form,
• developed by Nobel Prize winner Daniel McFadden.)
The Logit Model above is the probability of people to use a CAR
Logit form is widely used for transportation forecasting in
various forms
Logit Model
• states that the probability of choosing a particular mode for a
given trip is based on a number of factors such as
• 1.Cost of mode of transpo (cost of bus. Cost of tricycle fare )
• 2 level of service, of the transport mode
• 3 travel time.
What is a person trip?
• is “a trip by one person in any single mode of
transportation.”
• ex. 1200 person trips ? (500 bus?, 700 Car?)
• Note :
• Adding up all the person-trips generated
within a city will give you the transport
demand, which has to be serviced by vehicles
and the road system.
Route Assignment
• Which Route?
• determine the routes travelers choose to
reach their destinations.
• It is the fourth step in the conventional
transportation forecasting model
Route assignment
• To determine facility needs and costs and benefits,
we need to know the number of travelers on each
route and link of the network
• We need to undertake traffic (or trip) assignment.
• Suppose there is a network
of highways and transit systems and a proposed
addition.
• We first want to know the present pattern
of traffic delay and then what would happen if the
addition were made.
TRIP OR ROUTE ASSIGNMENT
• All or Nothing Method
• all trips between two zones were assigned
to the route having the minimum travel
time
“ All or Nothing” Method is explained in the
figure below, all 100 trips from zone A to B are
assigned on the route with least travel time
which is R1
Other methods of route assignment
are
• Equilibrium method
• System optimum
• Capacity restraint method
• Dynamic assignment
1200 PCU / lane (2 lane road)
Example 2
• Shown is a highway network with 5 traffic
analysis zones (TAZs) , zone 1,2 ,3,4, and 5
• The travel time from one zone to another is
also provided in minutes
• The origin /destination (O/D) matrix prepared
by a transpo engineer showing the assigned
number of trips for each origin and
destination zones are shown below:
• Use all or nothing trip
assignment method,
A. assign a link path for
all trips showing the
number of trips that will
pass to that link
Therefore , those trips going from
zone 1 to 4….
• Should follow the link path 1-5-4 , for faster
arrival
• Also total volume of vehicles assigned to link
path 1-5-4 is 200 vehicles as shown
4
• end
