Name: Elimar Galue Date: 11/07

Student Exploration: Estimating Population Size

Directions: Follow the instructions to go through the simulation. Respond to the questions and
prompts in the orange boxes.

Vocabulary: percent error, population, sample

Prior Knowledge Questions (Do these BEFORE using the Gizmo.)

1. A jar contains 100 marbles total. Some are black. If you pull 4 marbles out and 1 is black, how many out of
the 100 marbles would you guess are black? Explain.

I would guess 25 of the marbles are black because the sample being 1 out of 4 marbles
is black.

2. A different jar has 100 black marbles. (The total number of marbles is unknown.) If you pull 4 marbles out
and 1 is black, what is your guess for the total number of marbles? Explain.

I would guess 350 a total of 400 marbles because there is an estimated of 25%.

Gizmo Warm-up
In the Estimating Population Size Gizmo, you will estimate the total number of fish
in a pond. You will do this by tagging and releasing a certain number of fish, and
then “recapturing” some.

To change the number of fish to tag or catch, drag the slider, or click on the
number in the text field next to a slider, type a new value, and hit Enter.

1. Suppose a scientist tags 100 fish, and releases them. (Set the Tagged fish in pond to 100 to show this.)
Later, a fisherman catches 50 fish from the same pond. (Set Fish to catch to 50 to show this.) The
fisherman’s catch is a sample of all fish in the pond.
A. Click Catch and check. Look at the Results table. How 18 tagged fish
many tagged fish did the fisherman catch?

B. What percent of the fish in his sample were tagged? 36% of the fish

2. At the bottom of the Gizmo, select Show total fish in pond. How many fish are in this pond?

239 total fish in the pound

This number is the population of fish in this pond.

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 Activity A: Get the Gizmo ready:

Capture/recapture ● Be sure Show total fish in pond is selected on

method the POND tab.

The “capture/recapture” method lets you estimate the size of a population. To apply this to a fish pond, first
catch and tag some fish. (This is the “capture” part.) Then release the tagged fish into the pond and wait. Later,
catch a second group of fish. (This is the “recapture” part.) Count the tagged fish in the second group and use
a proportion to estimate the pond’s fish population.

1. Set the Tagged fish in pond to 50. Click New pond.

A. How many fish are in this pond?

308 fish in the pond.

B. If you catch one fish out of this pond, what is the probability that your fish is tagged?

50 Decimal (to nearest hundredth): 0.1623376623

Fraction: 3

308

C. Suppose you catch 100 fish out of this pond. About how many of these fish would you expect to be
tagged? Explain.

I would expect 16 fish to be tagged

D. Set the Fish to catch to 100. Click Catch and check. How does the number of tagged fish shown
in the Gizmo table compare to your estimate above?

the gizmo table states 11 fish

E. If you don’t know how many fish are in the pond, you can use the results from the catch to write a
proportion to estimate the fish population. Fill in the blanks below with words to write this proportion.

tagged fish caught tagged fish in pond

=
total fish caught total fish in pond

F. Now, in the space to the right, use the catch above to write the proportion to estimate the fish
population with numbers. Then, solve the proportion. Select the CALCULATE tab to check your
work.

454.545

G. How close is your estimate to the actual fish population?

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2. On the POND tab, turn off Show total fish in pond. Click New pond. Set the Tagged fish in pond and
the Fish to catch to the same number of your choice under 75.

A. How many fish were tagged and released?

B.Now click Catch and check. Fill in the blanks below to describe the number of tagged fish (and total
fish) in your sample.

79 out of 300 fish in the sample are tagged.

C. In the space to the right, write a proportion that

you can use to estimate the fish population.
Solve the proportion. Check your answer on the
CALCULATE tab.

D. Turn on Show total fish in pond. What is the actual fish population?

E. How far off was your estimated population from the actual value?

F. Do you think your estimate would be more accurate if you increased the number of fish to catch?

Explain. yes because you gonna get more fish so it will be better.

Use the Gizmo to check your prediction.

3. Suppose you use the “capture/recapture” method to come up with an estimate of 200 fish living in a pond.
Assume that this result is accurate to within 20% of the estimate.
A. If p is the actual number of fish, write an inequality to describe the minimum number of fish in the
pond.

B. Write an inequality to describe the maximum number of fish in the pond.

C. Combine your answers above into a compound inequality. p

Activity B: Get the Gizmo ready:

Sample size ● Select the POND tab.

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 ● Turn off Show total fish in pond.

The “capture/recapture” method lets you estimate the size of a population. To apply this to a fish pond, first
catch and tag some fish. (This is the “capture” part.) Then release the tagged fish into the pond and wait. Later,
catch a second group of fish. (This is the “recapture” part.) Count the tagged fish in the second group and use
a proportion to estimate the pond’s fish population.

1. Set Tagged fish in pond to 75 and Fish to catch to 10. Click New pond.

A. Click Catch and check. In the space to the right, 375

write and solve a proportion to estimate the total fish
in the pond. Select the CALCULATE tab to check.

B. Turn on Show total fish in pond. What is the actual fish population?

121 total fish in pond.

C. In the space to the right, find the difference between 209%

your estimate and the actual fish population. Then
express this as a percent of the actual population.

This is known as the percent error and is given by the formula below:

percent error = • 100

Note: If your estimate is less than the actual value, then the percent error is negative.

D. Fill in the first row of the table for the catch above. Then, change the Number of fish to catch to the
numbers shown in the first column and fill in the rest of the table.

Estimate
Number of Number of tagged of fish Es Actual fish Percent
fish caught fish in catch populatio population error
n
10. 10 . 75 291 -74%
30 . 23 . 97 176 -44%
80 . 60 . 100 166 -39%

2. On the POND tab, click New pond. Be sure Tagged fish in pond is still set to 75.

A. Fill in the following table for the new pond.

Number of Number of Estimate of fish Actual fish Percent
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 tagged fish in
fish caught population population error
catch
10 8 93 104 -10%
30 11 206 218 -6%
80 21 286 299 -4%

B. On the POND tab, click New pond again. Fill in the following table for this pond.
Number of Number of tagged Estimate of fish Actual fish Percent
fish caught fish in catch population population error
10 4 187 252 -26%
30 8 281 389 -28%
80 34 176 201 -12%

C. Compare the last three tables you filled in. What tends to happen to the percent error as the
number of fish caught (the sample size) increases?

what tends to happen to the percent error is that it is going down as the number
of fish caught increases.

D. Why do you think larger sample sizes usually lead to better estimates?

large sample sizes usually lead to better estimates because it is more

approximate to the population. There will also be a lesser percent error because
of it.

3. On the POND tab, click New pond. Be sure the Tagged fish in pond is still 75.
A. Select the CALCULATE tab. For each of the following sample sizes, click Catch and check 5
times. Record all 5 estimates below, and then fill in the rest of the table.
Actual
Number of Five estimates Mean of Percent
fish
fish caught of fish populations estimates error
populations
10 . 750
t. 375
. 250
. 187
. 150 . 342 . 350 -2%
30 . 173
. 204
. 187
. 173
. 257 . 197 . 208 -5%
80 . 187
. 166
. 230
. 240
. 199 . 187 . 187 7%

B. Compare the percent errors for this 5-sample method to the percent errors for the 1-sample method
above. Does the 5-sample method seem more reliable? Explain.

the 5-example method does seem more reliable as the percent error went down
from -2% to 7%.

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