Knowledge Portal BUSINESS

ECONOMICS

CHAPTER 5:
BUSINESS ECONOMICS

By CA SANCHIT GROVER
 CA SANCHIT GROVER
(Senior tax consultant with Big 4 firm)

About the Author

Completed his CA Course securing place in Top 6 All India Ranks - both at IPC and CPT level
Currently associated with Ernst & Young (one of the largest consultancy firms globally in the field of Tax Consultancy)
Wide range of experience in handling tax ralated matters (both direct tax and indirect tax)
for clients cutting across different sectors
Successfully handled GST Implementation projects for various Multi National Clients
Experience in handling issues related to UAE VAT and Australian GST
Speaker at various seminars on Taxation and Economics

What differentiates us from Others

Discussion on Real Life Practical Issues with each Topic
Use of tables and Flowcharts to summarize all Important Topics
Interesting Learning techniques to grasp complex
Complete Coverage of entire ICAI Question Bank including
RTPs and addtional questions on ICAI website
Revisionary Video & Voice Clips for Last Day Preparations Last
CA Sanchit Grover Business Economics for CA Foundation – New Syllabus 1

What to study in this chapter

Meaning of the term 'Business Cycles'

Different Phases of Business Cycles

What are features of each Busines Cycle

Causes of Business Cycles - Internal and External Causes

Relevance of stuyd of business cycles in business decision making

Understanding the meaning of term ‘Business Cycles”

One of the basic underlying feature of any economy across the globe is the fluctuation in economic activities over a
period of time. There have been periods of prosperity followed by periods of downturns in economic activity. These
rhythmic fluctuations in aggregate economic activity that an economy experiences over a period of time are called
business cycles or trade cycles

A business cycle is the natural rise and fall of economic growth that occurs over time.

In other words, business cycle refers to alternate expansion and contraction of overall business activity as
manifested in fluctuations in measures of aggregate economic activity, such as, gross national product, employment
and income.

Business cycles or the periodic booms and slumps in economic activities reflect the upward and downward
movements in economic variables

A typical business cycle or trade cycle consists of the following:-

Periods of good trade Characterized by:-

 Rising prices
 Low unemployment percentage
Periods of bad trade Characterized by:-
 Falling prices
 High unemployment percentage

Characteristics of Business Cycles or Economic fluctuations

 They are recurrent and occur periodically

 They occur again and again but not always at regular intervals, nor are they of the same length. (some business
cycles may be lasting for several years while others may be short ending in two to three years.)

Different Phases of Business Cycle

Experience of various countries suggest that their economies grow over a period of time but this growth story is filled
with business cycles (their GDP line going up, declining but gaining momentum again). Ultimately growth of any
economy can be projected in the following figure:-
CA Sanchit Grover Business Economics for CA Foundation – New Syllabus 2

Observations from above diagram

 Steady broken line in the middle represents steady growth of the economy (excluding the impact of
business fluctuation). This line basically shows overall ‘trend’ of the economy over a period of time
 The first stage in the above diagram is called ‘trough’ when the overall economic activities i.e. production
and employment, are at the lowest level.
 This is followed by ‘expansion path’ - when production and employment expand and the economy starts
reviving,
 The stage of expansion goes on till the economy reaches the point called ‘peak’, however beyond that this
stage cannot go on indefinitely. Hence after reaching the ‘peak’, the economy starts on ‘contraction path’
when the level of economic activity starts declining
 The contraction or downturn continues till it reaches the lowest turning point i.e. ‘trough’. However, after
remaining at this point for some time, the economy revives again and a new cycle starts.

Features of different phases of Business cycles

Expansion  Increase in national output, employment, aggregate demand, capital and consumer
expenditure
 Increase in sales, profits of business entities resulting to rising stock prices, increased credit
availability from banks
 Negligible involuntary employment (almost Zero). Unemployment, if any, in the economy
would be because of following reasons:-
 Frictional unemployment (i.e. due to change of jobs, or suspended work due to
strikes or due to imperfect mobility of labour)
 Structural unemployment (i.e. unemployment caused due to structural changes in
the economy)
 Investment happening is good and hence demand for goods and services is also very high.
Resultantly, prices and costs tend to rise faster
 Increasing prosperity and people enjoy high standard of living due to high levels of
consumer spending, business confidence, production, factor incomes, profits and
investment
Point to note
The stage of expansion continues till there is full employment of resources and production is at its maximum
possible level using the available productive resources. The growth rate eventually slows down and reaches its
peak.
Peak The term peak refers to the top or the highest point of the business cycle. In other words, after
this point, stage of expansion ends and stage of contraction starts.
Reasons
 In the later stages of expansion, inputs are difficult to find as they are short of their demand
and therefore input prices increase.
 Output prices also rise rapidly leading to increased cost of living and greater strain on fixed
income earners.
 Consumers begin to review their consumption expenditure on housing, durable goods etc.
Consequently, actual demand stagnates.
CA Sanchit Grover Business Economics for CA Foundation – New Syllabus 3

Remember:
The economy cannot continue to grow endlessly. Point of ‘Peak’ is the end of expansion and it occurs when
economic growth has reached a point where it will stabilize for a short time and then move in the reverse direction

Contraction How ‘Contraction’ starts:-

1) There is fall in the levels of investment and employment. (Demand decreasing..!!)
2) Producers do not instantaneously recognise the pulse of the economy and continue
anticipating higher levels of demand. Therefore, they maintain their existing levels of
investment and production (with the hopes of a better future..!!)
3) The consequence is a discrepancy or mismatch between demand and supply. Supply far
exceeds demand.
4) Once this stage is reached, producers now realize that that they have indulged in excessive
investment and over production. Hence, they respond by holding back future investment
plans, cancellation and stoppage of orders for equipment and all types of inputs including
labour. (Supply side contracts..!!)
5) As producers contract their supply, there is a chain of reactions in the input markets as well
- producers of capital goods and raw materials in turn respond by cancelling and curtailing
their orders. (Fire of contraction starts spreading across sectors now…!!)

How consumers play a role in recession

1) Due to fall in prices of products (including inputs) incomes of wage and interest earners
gradually decline resulting in decreased demand for goods and services.
2) Producers lower their prices in order to dispose off their inventories and for meeting their
financial obligations.
3) Consumers, in their turn, expect further decreases in prices and postpone their purchases.
With reduced consumer spending, aggregate demand falls, generally causing fall in prices.
4) The discrepancy between demand and supply gets widened further. This process gathers
speed and recession becomes severe.

Stage of severe recession

 Investments start declining; production and employment decline resulting in further decline
in incomes, demand and consumption of both capital goods and consumer goods.
 Business firms become pessimistic about the future state of the economy and there is a fall
in profit expectations which induces them to reduce investments.
 Bank credit shrinks as borrowings for investment declines, investor confidence is at its
lowest.
 Stock prices fall and unemployment increases despite fall in wage rates.

The process of recession is complete and the severe contraction in the economic activities pushes
the economy into the phase of depression.
Trough and Depression is the severe form of recession and is characterized by extremely sluggish economic
Depression: activities. Main features of this stage are:-

 Growth rate becomes negative and the level of national income and expenditure declines
rapidly.
 Demand for products and services decreases, prices are at their lowest and decline rapidly
forcing firms to shutdown several production facilities.
 Companies are unable to sustain their work force, and hence job cuts. This leads to mounting
unemployment and consequently the consumers are left with very little disposable income.
CA Sanchit Grover Business Economics for CA Foundation – New Syllabus 4

 There is fall in the interest rate due to which people’s demand for holding liquid money (i.e.
in cash) increases. Despite lower interest rates, the demand for credit declines because
investors' confidence has fallen. Credit generation remains low due to possible banking or
financial crisis. (that are general consequences of depression)
 Industries, especially capital and consumer durable goods industry, suffer from excess
capacity.
 Large number of bankruptcies and liquidation significantly reduce the magnitude of trade
and commerce. At the depth of depression, all economic activities touch the bottom and the
phase of trough is reached.
Point to be note
The economy cannot continue to contract endlessly. It reaches the lowest level of economic activity called trough
and then starts recovering

Recovery After a rough patch, there is end of pessimism and the beginning of optimism which reverses the
process. This revival process generally happens in the following manner:-

 Pervasive unemployment forces the workers to accept wages lower than the prevailing rates.
 Due to this, the producers anticipate lower costs and better business environment. As business
confidence gets better, they start to invest again and to build stocks;
 Slowly, the banking system starts expanding credit; technological advancements require
fresh investments into new types of machines and capital goods;
 Employment increases, aggregate demand picks up and prices gradually rise.

Spurring of investment is the main factor that acts as a turning point from depression to
expansion. As investment rises, production increases, employment improves, income improves
and consumers begin to increase their expenditure. Increased spending causes increased aggregate
demand and in order to fulfill the demand more goods and services are produced. Employment
of labour increases, unemployment falls and expansion takes place in the economic activity

What are the different Indicators to detect which phase is going on

Meaning of It is very difficult to predict the turning points of business cycles. Economists use changes in a
Indicators variety of activities to measure the business cycle and to predict where the economy is headed
towards. These are called indicators.
Types of Indicators
Leading Meaning A leading indicator is a measurable economic factor that changes before the
Indicators economy starts to follow a particular pattern or trend. In other words, those
variables that change before the real output changes are called ‘Leading
indicators’. Leading indicators often change prior to large economic adjustments
Examples  Changes in stock prices,
 profit margins and profits,
 indices such as housing, interest rates and prices
 value of new orders for consumer goods, new orders for plant and
equipment, building permits for private houses,
 fraction of companies reporting slower deliveries,
 index of consumer confidence and money growth rate
Significance Leading indicators, though widely used to predict changes in the economy, are
not always accurate. Even experts disagree on the timing of these so-called
leading indicators.
For instance:- it may be weeks or months after a stock market crash before the
economy begins to show signs of receding. Nevertheless, it may never happen.
CA Sanchit Grover Business Economics for CA Foundation – New Syllabus 5

Lagging Meaning Lagging indicators reflect the economy’s historical performance and changes in
indicators these indicators are observable only after an economic trend or pattern has already
occurred. In other words, variables that change after the real output changes are
called ‘Lagging indicators’.
Examples  unemployment,
 corporate profits,
 labour cost per unit of output,
 interest rates,
 the consumer price index and
 commercial lending activity
Significance If leading indicators signal the onset of business cycles, lagging indicators
confirm these trends
Coincident Meaning Coincident economic indicators, also called concurrent indicators, coincide or
indicator occur simultaneously with the business-cycle movements. Since they coincide
fairly closely with changes in the cycle of economic activity, they describe the
current state of the business cycle
Examples  Gross Domestic Product,
 industrial production, inflation,
 personal income,
 retail sales and
 financial market trends such as stock market prices.
Significance These indicators give information about the rate of change of the expansion or
contraction of an economy more or less at the same point of time it happens

General Features of Business Cycles

Business Cycles may differ in terms of duration and intensity, but all of them share the following common features:-

No fixed Business cycles occur periodically although they do not exhibit the same regularity. The
duration duration of these cycles vary.
Variance in Fluctuations are common phenomenon in any economy, however, the intensity of each
intensity business cycle varies
Lack of All business cycles have distinct phases of expansion, peak, contraction and trough.
regularity in However, these phases seldom display any smoothness and regularity. Further, the length of
different phases each phase also differs (hence nobody can be sure when recession has ended…!!
Pervasive in Business cycles typically generally originate in free market economies (since forces of
nature demand and supply decide the direction of such economies). Accordingly, the effect of these
cycles is generally pervasive i.e. disturbances in one or more sectors get easily transmitted to
all other sectors.
Disproportionate Although all sectors are adversely affected by business cycles, some sectors such as capital
effect on goods industries, durable consumer goods industry etc, are disproportionately affected.
different sectors Moreover, compared to agricultural sector, the industrials sector is more prone to the adverse
effects of trade cycles
Complex in Business cycles are exceedingly complex phenomena. This is because of the reason that they
nature do not have uniform characteristics and causes and they are caused by varying factors.
Therefore, it is difficult to make an accurate prediction of trade cycles before their occurrence
Impact on all Repercussions of business cycles get simultaneously felt on nearly all economic variables
economic viz. output, employment, investment, consumption, interest, trade and price levels.
variables
CA Sanchit Grover Business Economics for CA Foundation – New Syllabus 6

Contagious from Business cycles are contagious and are international in character. They begin in one country
one nation to and mostly spread to other countries through trade relations.
another
For example, the great depression of 1930s in the USA and Great Britain affected almost all
the countries, especially the capitalist countries of the world. The recent sub prime crisis of
US is another example that quickly spread across the globe.
Impact on social Business cycles have serious consequences on the well being of the society. The period of
well being recession is a very agonizing period causing lots of distress for all.

For instance:- The great depression of 1929-33 is still cited for the enormous misery and
human sufferings it caused.

Some Real Life Examples of Business Cycles

Great  Longest, deepest, and the most widespread depression of the 20th century during 1930s.
Depression of  Started in the US and became worldwide.
1930  Global GDP fell by around 15% between 1929 and 1932. Production, employment and
income fell.

What lead to it
 There is difference of opinion amongst economists regarding causes of Great
Depression.
 While British economist John Maynard Keynes regarded lower aggregate
expenditures in the economy to be the cause of massive decline in income and
employment,
 Monetarists opined that the Great Depression was caused by the banking crisis and low
money supply.
 Many other economists blamed deflation, over- indebtedness, lower profits and
pessimism to be the main causes of Great Depression.

Recovery
 The economies of the world began recovering in 1933.
 Increased money supply, huge international inflow of gold, increased governments’
spending due to World War II etc., were some of the factors which helped economies
slowly come out of recession and enter the phase of expansion and upturn.
Information  Also termed as Dot.Com bubble. It roughly covered the period 1997-2000
Technology
bubble burst of What lead to it
2000  During this period, many new Internet–based companies (commonly referred as dot-
com companies) were started.
 Due to rapid growth of internet, venture capitalists invested huge amount in these
companies. These companies were also able to borrow from the market at low interest
rates
 Due to over- optimism in the market, investors were less cautious. There was a great rise
in their stock prices
 These companies offered their services or end products for free with the expectation that
they could build enough brand awareness to charge profitable rates for their services
later (something we see even today in e-commerce space..!!)

The burst of Bubble

CA Sanchit Grover Business Economics for CA Foundation – New Syllabus 7


The "growth over profits" mentality led some companies to engage in lavish internal
spending, such as elaborate business facilities. These companies could not sustain long.
 The collapse of the bubble took place during 1999–2001.
 Many dot-com companies ran out of capital and were acquired or liquidated.
 Nearly half of the dot –com companies were either shut down or were taken over by
other companies.
 Stock markets crashed and slowly the economies began feeling the downturn in their
economic activities.
Global What lead to it
Economic  The recent global economic crisis owes its origin to US financial markets.
Crisis (2008-  After the year 2000, the US Federal Reserve (the Central Bank of US) reduced the rate
09): of interest which led to large liquidity or money supply with the banks.
 With lower interest rates, credit became cheaper and the households, even with low
creditworthiness, began to buy houses in increasing numbers.
 Excess liquidity with banks and availability of new financial instruments led banks to
lend without checking the creditworthiness of borrowers (Loans were given even to sub-
prime households and also to those persons who had no income or assets)
 Due to oversupply in the market, prices of houses (that were held as mortgages) declined
significantly and hence the sub – prime households started defaulting on a large scale in
paying off their instalments.
 This caused huge losses to the banks. Losses in banks and other financial institutions
had a chain eect and soon the whole US economy and the world economy at large felt
its impact.

Causes of Business Cycles

Internal
Causes External
Causes

Internal Causes
Fluctuations in According to Keynes, fluctuations in economic activities are due to fluctuations in aggregate
Effective effective demand
Demand *Effective demand refers to the willingness and ability of consumers to purchase goods at
different prices.

How aggregate demand leads to economic fluctuations

Higher  In a free market economy, where maximization of profits is the aim of
level of businesses, a higher level of aggregate demand will induce businessmen
demand to produce more. (since more production would mean more sale and hence
more profits)
 As a result, there will be more output, income and employment
 However, if aggregate demand outstrips aggregate supply, it causes
inflation
Lower  If the aggregate demand is low, there will be lesser output, income and
level of employment (since producers will cut their output to avoid situation of
demand excess supply)
CA Sanchit Grover Business Economics for CA Foundation – New Syllabus 8

 Investors sell stocks, and buy safe-haven investments that traditionally do

not lose value (such as bonds, gold and the U.S. dollar)
 As companies lay off workers, consumers lose their jobs and stop buying
anything but necessities. That causes a downward spiral
Impact of  The difference between exports and imports is the net foreign demand for
Foreign goods and services.
Trade  This is a component of the aggregate demand in the economy, and
therefore variations in exports and imports can lead to business
fluctuations as well.

Conclusion
Increase in Aggregate demand • Conditions of expansion and boom
Decrease in Aggregate demand • Conditions of recession and depression

Fluctuations in According to some economists, fluctuations in investments are the prime cause of business
Investment cycles.
Why do  Changes in the profit expectations of entrepreneurs.
investments  New inventions may cause entrepreneurs to increase investments in
fluctuate projects which are cost-efficient or more profit inducing.
 Investment may rise when the rate of interest is low in the economy.
Effect of  Investment spending is considered to be the most volatile component of
Fluctuations the aggregate demand.
in  Increases in investment shift the aggregate demand to the right, leading
Investment to an economic expansion (how increase in demand leads to boom is
already explained above)
 Decreases in investment have the opposite effect
Variations in  Fluctuations in government spending with its impact on aggregate economic activity
government result in business fluctuations (since it is an important component of aggregate
spending demand..!!)
 Government spending, especially during and after wars, has destabilizing effects on the
economy.
Macroeconomic Macroeconomic policies mainly includes monetary and fiscal policies of the government.
policies
How these policies lead to business cycles
Expansionary/ Examples  increased government spending
Inflationary  tax cuts
policies  softening of interest rates,
Impact  Boost to aggregate demand, resulting to expansion and
boom
 Inflationary effects (mainly due to interest rate cuts) and
decline in unemployment rates
Anti- Examples  reduction in government spending
Inflationary  increase in taxes
policies  Increase in interest rates
Impact  downward pressure on the aggregate demand leading to
slow down in the economy
 At times, such slowdowns may be drastic, showing
negative growth rates and may ultimately end up in
recession.
Money Supply According to Hawtrey, trade cycle is a purely monetary phenomenon. Unplanned changes in
supply of money may cause business fluctuation in an economy.
CA Sanchit Grover Business Economics for CA Foundation – New Syllabus 9

Increase in  Expansion in aggregate demand leading to boom in economic

supply of activities.
money  Capital is easily available, and therefore consumers and businesses
alike can borrow at low rates (This stimulates more demand, creating
a virtuous circle of prosperity)
 However, excessive increase of credit and money also set off inflation
in the economy
Decrease in  Decrease in money supply and/or contraction of credit creation by
money banks leads to lesser investible funds for businessmen and lesser
supply disposable funds for consumers
 Due to lesser investment and lesser demand, there is fall in output,
employment etc. and hence initiation of recession in the economy
Psychological Anticipation theory by Pigou
factors Theory  According to Pigou, modern business activities are based on the
anticipations of business community and are affected by waves of
optimism or pessimism.
 Business fluctuations are the outcome of these psychological states of
mind of businessmen
Stages of If entrepreneurs are optimistic about future market conditions, they make
Optimism investments, and as a result, the expansionary phase may begin.
Stages of  Investors tend to restrict their investments.
Pessimism  With reduced investments, employment, income and consumption also
take a downturn and the economy faces contraction in economic
activities.

Other Theories
Innovation According to Schumpeter’s innovation theory, trade cycles occur as a result
Theory by of innovations which take place in the system from time to time
Schumpeter
Cobweb  This theory holds that business cycles result from the fact that present
theory by prices substantially influence the production at some future date.
Nicholas  The present fluctuations in prices may become responsible for
Kaldor fluctuations in output and employment at some subsequent period

External Causes
Wars  During war times, production of war goods, like weapons and arms etc., increases and most
of the resources of the country are diverted for their production.
 This affects the production of other goods - capital and consumer goods.
 Fall in production causes fall in income, profits and employment.
 This creates contraction in economic activity and may trigger downturn in business cycle

Post War  After war, when the country begins to reconstruct itself, expenditure is incurred for building
Reconstruction houses, roads, bridges etc. due to which economic activity begins to pick up.
 All these activities push up effective demand due to which output, employment and income
go up. (thereby pushing the economy upwards..!!)
Technology  Although growing technology enables production of new and better products and services,
shocks however these products generally require huge investments for new technology adoption.
 On account of this, technological advancement in any country leads to expansion of
employment, income and profits etc. and give a boost to the economy.
CA Sanchit Grover Business Economics for CA Foundation – New Syllabus 10

For example, due to the advent of mobile phones, the telecom industry underwent a boom and
there was expansion of production, employment, income and profits.
Natural Factors  These mainly include weather cycles which cause fluctuations in agricultural output. This
leads to instability in the economies, especially those economies which are mainly agrarian.
 Even in other economics, there is an indirect impact caused in the following manner:-
 In the years when there are draughts or excessive floods, agricultural output is badly
affected. With reduced agricultural output, incomes of farmers fall and therefore they
reduce their demand for industrial goods.
 Reduced production of food products also pushes up their prices and thus reduces the
income available for buying industrial goods.
 Reduced demand for industrial products may cause industrial recession.
Population  The rate of savings in the economy directly depends on population growth. Where the
growth population growth rate outpaces the economic growth rate, the result is lesser overall savings
in the economy.
 Fewer saving will reduce investment and as a result, income and employment will also be
less.
 With lesser employment and income, the effective demand will be less, and overall, there
will be slowdown in economic activities.

Other reasons  In the world of globalisation, it is natural that business fluctuations occurring in one part of
the world get easily transmitted to other parts.
 Changes in laws related to taxes, trade regulations, government expenditure, transfer of
capital and production to other countries, shifts in tastes and preferences of consumers are
also potential sources of disruption in the economy

Why is study of Business Cycles relevant for Business Decision Making

Direct Impact Understanding the business cycle is important for businesses of all types as they affect the demand
on profits for their products and in turn their profits which ultimately determines whether a business is
successful or not.
Formulation of Knowledge regarding business cycles and their inherent characteristics is important for a
appropriate businessman to frame appropriate policies. For example,
policies  Period of prosperity opens up new and superior opportunities for investment, employment
and production and thereby promotes business.
 Period of recession or depression reduces business opportunities and profits (businessmen
play defensive during this time..!!)
Planning  One of prime consideration to be kept in mind by any profit maximising firm while
regarding undertaking the function of forward planning, is study of the ecnmic environment in which
expansion and it is operating.
down sizing  The stage of the business cycle is crucial while making managerial decisions regarding
expansion or down-sizing.
 Businesses have to advantageously respond to the need to alter production levels relative to
demand. Different phases of the cycle require fluctuating levels of input use, especially
labour input.
 Capability to expand or rationalize production operations so as to suit the stage of the
business cycle is the key to long term success of any firm
Impact due to Products that  Businesses whose fortunes are closely linked to the rate of economic
nature of vary directly growth are referred to as "cyclical" businesses.
product with economic
cycle
CA Sanchit Grover Business Economics for CA Foundation – New Syllabus 11

 These include fashion retailers, electrical goods, house-builders,

restaurants, advertising, overseas tour operators, construction and
other infrastructure firms.
 During a boom, such businesses see a strong demand for their products
but during a slump, they usually suffer a sharp drop in demand
Products that  It may also happen that some businesses actually bene_t from an
vary inversely economic down turn.
with economic  This happens when their products are perceived by customers as
cycle representing good value for money, or a cheaper alternative compared
to more expensive products.
Ability to Understanding what phase of the business cycle an economy is in and what implications the
respond current economic conditions have for their current and future business activity, helps businesses
appropriately to better anticipate the market and to respond with greater alertness.

For instance:- Study of stage of business cycle helps a firm to determine the exact timing of its
new product launch (the ability to forecast the future economic climate is what determines the
success of newly launched product..!!)
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