Moving Average

44
MAD = 115.56
43
MSE = 20,988.89
42

Period Actual Forecast Error |Error| Error2 41

1 650 40
2 700
39
3 810
4 800 720 80 80 6400 38

5 900 770 130 130 16900 37

6 700 836.666667 -136.666667 136.666667 18677.7778
36
7 800
35
1 2 3 4 5

Period

Actual Forecast
2 3 4 5 6

Period

Actual Forecast
Forecast Accuracy

Forecast
MAD = 0
MSE = 0
MAPE = #DIV/0!

Period Actual Forecast Error |Error| Error2 % Error |% Error|

1 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
2 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
3 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
4 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
5 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
6 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
7 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
8 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
9
220

218

216

214

212

210

208

206

204
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Period

Actual Forecast
Forecast Accuracy

Forecast
MAD = 2.75
MSE = 10.8571429
MAPE = 1.2837%

Period Actual Forecast Error |Error| Error2 % Error |% Error|

1 217 215 2 2 4 0.92% 0.92%
2 213 216 -3 3 9 -1.41% 1.41%
3 216 215 1 1 1 0.46% 0.46%
4 210 214 -4 4 16 -1.90% 1.90%
5 213 211 2 2 4 0.94% 0.94%
6 219 214 5 5 25 2.28% 2.28%
7 216 217 -1 1 1 -0.46% 0.46%
8 212 216 -4 4 16 -1.89% 1.89%
9
220

218

216

214

212

210

208

206

204
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Period

Actual Forecast
Moving Average

44
MAD = 1.67
43
MSE = 6.94
42

Period Actual Forecast Error |Error| Error2 41

1 42 40
2 40
39
3 43
4 40 41.6666667 -1.66666667 1.66666667 2.77777778 38

5 41 41 0 0 0 37
6 38 41.3333333 -3.33333333 3.33333333 11.1111111
36
7 39.6666667
35
1 2 3 4 5

Period

Actual Forecast
2 3 4 5 6

Period

Actual Forecast
Exponential Smoothing
50
45
a= 0.1 MAD = 15.00 40
35
MSE = 362.50 30
25
20
Period Actual Forecast Error |Error| Error2 15
10
1 3000 60 5
2 100 80 20 20 400 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 105 95 10 10 100 Period
4 90 75 15 15 225 Actual Fo
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Period
Actual Forecast
Exponential Smoothing
50

a= 0.1 MAD = 2.45 45

MSE = 8.21 40

35
Period Actual Forecast Error |Error| Error2
30
1 42
25
2 40 42 -2 2 4
3 43 41.8 1.2 1.2 1.44 20

4 40 41.92 -1.92 1.92 3.6864 15

5 41 41.728 -0.728 0.728 0.529984 10
6 39 41.6552 -2.6552 2.6552 7.05008704 5
7 46 41.38968 4.61032 4.61032 21.2550505
0
8 44 41.850712 2.149288 2.149288 4.61943891 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
9 45 42.0656408 2.9343592 2.9343592 8.61046391
10 38 42.3590767 -4.35907672 4.35907672 19.0015499 Period

11 40 41.923169 -1.92316905 1.92316905 3.69857919

12 41.7308521 Actual Forecas
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Period

Actual Forecast
Linear Trend Equation

800
Slope = 7.5091 MAD = 4.44
Intercept = 699.4 MSE = 32.91 780

760
Period Actual Forecast Error |Error| Error2
740
1 700 706.909091 -6.90909091 6.90909091 47.7355372
2 724 714.418182 9.58181818 9.58181818 91.8112397 720
3 720 721.927273 -1.92727273 1.92727273 3.71438017
700
4 728 729.436364 -1.43636364 1.43636364 2.0631405
5 740 736.945455 3.05454545 3.05454545 9.33024793 680
6 742 744.454545 -2.45454545 2.45454545 6.02479339
660
7 758 751.963636 6.03636364 6.03636364 36.437686
8 750 759.472727 -9.47272727 9.47272727 89.732562 640
9 770 766.981818 3.01818182 3.01818182 9.10942149 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 775 774.490909 0.50909091 0.50909091 0.25917355 Period

11 782
12 789.509091 Actual Forecast
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Period

Actual Forecast
Trend and Seasonal
Slope = 7.5 Period Season Trend Index
Intercept = 124 1 4 131.5 0.95
2 1 139 1.2
3 2 146.5 1.1
Season Index 4 3 154 0.75
4 0.95 5 4 161.5 0.95
1 1.2 6 1 169 1.2
2 1.1 7 2 176.5 1.1
3 0.75 8 3 184 0.75
9 4 191.5 0.95
10 1 199 1.2
11 2 206.5 1.1
12 3 214 0.75
13 4 221.5 0.95
14 1 229 1.2
15 2 236.5 1.1
16 3 244 0.75
Forecast 300

124.925
166.8 250

161.15
115.5 200

153.425
150
202.8
194.15
100
138
181.925
50
238.8
227.15
0
160.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
210.425
Period
274.8
260.15
Trend Forecast
183
Compute Seasonal Indexes

Period Season Actual MA Center Index Season

1 Tues 67
2 Wed 75 Tues
3 Thur 82 Wed
4 Fri 98 71.8571429 1.3638171 Thur
5 Sat 90 70.8571429 1.27016129 Fri
6 Sun 36 70.5714286 0.51012146 Sat
7 Mon 55 71.8571429 71 0.77464789 Sun
8 Tues 60 70.8571429 71.1428571 0.84337349 Mon
9 Wed 73 70.5714286 70.5714286 1.03441296
10 Thur 85 71 71.1428571 1.19477912 1.6
11 Fri 99 71.1428571 70.7142857 1.4 1.4
12 Sat 86 70.5714286 71.2857143 1.20641283 1.2
13 Sun 40 71.1428571 71.7142857 0.55776892 1
14 Mon 52 70.7142857 72 0.72222222
0.8
15 Tues 64 71.2857143 71.5714286 0.89421158
0.6
16 Wed 76 71.7142857 71.8571429 1.05765408
0.4
17 Thur 87 72 72.4285714 1.20118343
0.2
18 Fri 96 71.5714286 72.1428571 1.33069307
0
19 Sat 88 71.8571429

Thur
Tues

Wed
20 Sun 44 72.4285714
21 Mon 50 72.1428571
 Average Standard
Index Index
0.8688 #DIV/0!
1.0460 #DIV/0!
1.1980 #DIV/0!
1.3648 #DIV/0!
1.2383 #DIV/0!
0.5339 #DIV/0!
0.7484 #DIV/0!
Fri

Sat
Thur
Tues

Sun

Mon
Wed
100
140 -40 100
110 30 140
150 -40 110
120 30 150
160 -40 120
620
January 650
February 700
March 810
April 800
May 900
June 700
Simple Linear Regression
0.5

Slope = 0.0159 r= 0.9166657 0.45

Intercept = 0.05060078 r = 0.840276
2
0.4

x y Forecast Error 0.35

7 0.15 0.1621124 -0.0121124 0.3

2 0.1 0.08246124 0.01753876
0.25
6 0.13 0.14618217 -0.01618217

Y
4 0.15 0.11432171 0.03567829 0.2
14 0.25 0.27362403 -0.02362403
0.15
15 0.27 0.28955426 -0.01955426
16 0.24 0.3054845 -0.0654845 0.1
12 0.2 0.24176357 -0.04176357 0.05
14 0.27 0.27362403 -0.00362403
20 0.44 0.36920543 0.07079457 0
0 5 10 15
15 0.34 0.28955426 0.05044574
7 0.17 0.1621124 0.0078876 X

Data Linear (Data)

 10 15 20 25

Data Linear (Data)