Low Emissions Analysis Platform

Training Exercises
July 22nd, 2024

Updated for LEAP 2024

Authors: Charles Heaps, Silvia Ulloa, Jason Veysey (SEI)

These exercises are for use with LEAP2024 for Windows.

Download the latest version of LEAP from https://leap.sei.org before using these exercises.
Stockholm Environment Institute – U.S. Center
11 Curtis Avenue, Somerville, MA 02144-1224
USA

https://leap.sei.org
https://www.sei.org
Email: [email protected]

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION __________________________________________________________ 5
GETTING STARTED WITH LEAP ______________________________________________ 6
1 INTRODUCTION TO LEAP ____________________________________________ 10
1.1 OVERVIEW OF FREEDONIA____________________________________________ 10
1.2 SETTINGS _________________________________________________________ 10
1.3 DEMAND _________________________________________________________ 11
1.4 TRANSFORMATION _________________________________________________ 20
1.5 EMISSIONS ________________________________________________________ 28
1.6 A SECOND SCENARIO: DEMAND-SIDE-MANAGEMENT ______________________ 30
2 DEMAND ___________________________________________________________ 34
2.1 INDUSTRY ________________________________________________________ 34
2.2 TRANSPORT _______________________________________________________ 36
2.3 COMMERCE: USEFUL ENERGY ANALYSIS ________________________________ 39
2.4 TOTAL FINAL DEMANDS _____________________________________________ 41
3 TRANSFORMATION _________________________________________________ 43
3.1 CHARCOAL PRODUCTION ____________________________________________ 43
3.2 ELECTRICITY GENERATION ___________________________________________ 43
3.3 OIL REFINING _____________________________________________________ 44
3.4 COAL MINING _____________________________________________________ 44
3.5 RESOURCES _______________________________________________________ 45
3.6 VIEWING RESULTS__________________________________________________ 46
4 COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS ___________________________________________ 50
4.1 COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS IN LEAP: A BRIEF INTRODUCTION ________________ 50
4.2 CREATING POLICY SCENARIOS ________________________________________ 51
4.3 ENTERING COSTING DATA____________________________________________ 51
4.4 COST-BENEFIT RESULTS _____________________________________________ 57
5 INCLUDING EMISSIONS FROM NON-ENERGY SOURCES ________________ 60
5.1 CURRENT ACCOUNTS _______________________________________________ 60
5.2 BASELINE SCENARIO ________________________________________________ 64
5.3 POLICY SCENARIO: DIGESTING ANIMAL WASTES FOR POWER GENERATION _____ 66
6 A TRANSPORTATION STUDY_________________________________________ 70
6.1 SETTINGS AND STRUCTURE ___________________________________________ 70
6.2 CURRENT ACCOUNTS DATA __________________________________________ 71
6.3 BASELINE SCENARIO ________________________________________________ 74
6.4 BASELINE RESULTS _________________________________________________ 74
6.5 EMISSIONS FACTORS ________________________________________________ 75
6.6 BASELINE EMISSIONS _______________________________________________ 77
6.7 POLICY SCENARIOS _________________________________________________ 78
6.8 RESULTS _________________________________________________________ 79
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7 LEAST-COST ELECTRIC GENERATION ________________________________ 85
7.1 ENTERING ELECTRIC GENERATION DATA ________________________________ 85
7.2 CREATING LOAD SHAPES BY IMPORTING HOURLY LOAD DATA _______________ 88
7.3 SIMULATION SCENARIOS TO EXPLORE TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS ________ 91
7.4 INCORPORATING EXTERNALITY VALUES _________________________________ 93
7.5 INSTALLING NEMO ________________________________________________ 95
7.6 USING OPTIMIZATION TO IDENTIFY A LEAST-COST SCENARIO ________________ 95
7.7 MAKING THE MODEL MORE REALISTIC _________________________________ 98
7.8 USING CONSTRAINTS TO SPECIFY A CO2 CAP ____________________________ 100
7.9 AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH TO MODELING CO2 DAMAGES ________________ 103
7.10 MODELING STORAGE AND CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS _______________________ 103
7.11 USING YOUR OWN DATA ___________________________________________ 105

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TRAINING EXERCISES FOR LEAP
Introduction
These training exercises will introduce you to LEAP, the Low Emissions Analysis Platform, and
how it can be applied to energy and environmental analysis. The exercises are normally used as
part of LEAP training courses. They assume that you have some background in energy issues and
familiarity with Windows-based software, including spreadsheets (such as Microsoft Excel).

The training exercises are designed in a modular fashion. If you only have a few hours and want
to get a general impression of how LEAP works, then complete Exercise 1. Further exercises are
intended to give you a deeper understanding of additional LEAP capabilities.

• Exercise 1 will introduce you to the basic elements of energy demand and supply analysis,
of projecting energy requirements and calculating environmental loadings. You must
complete Exercise 1 before beginning Exercise 2.

• Exercises 2 and 3 allow you to develop a basic energy analysis, to create scenarios, and
to evaluate a handful of individual policy and technical options, such as energy efficiency
standards and switching power plants from coal to natural gas. The exercises cover
demand, supply, and scenario analysis, and can be done individually or together.

• Exercise 4 lets you explore the costs and benefits of several alternative scenarios. Scenarios
are implemented on both the demand and supply side, and you will explore the use of
LEAP as a cost-benefit calculator to find the costs of reducing emissions under each
scenario. Exercise 4 requires that you begin with a completed version of Exercise 3.

• Exercise 5 demonstrates how LEAP can be used to examine non-energy sector greenhouse
gases, using the examples of high global warming substances such as HFCs and methane
from agriculture. This exercise also shows how to import data from Excel and introduces
the use of "user variables", as a way of extending the capabilities of LEAP. Exercise 5
builds upon Exercise 4.

Each of these five exercises uses the backdrop of a fictional country called “Freedonia”, which
is based on data that are similar to information you may encounter in the real world. As in the
real world, in some cases you will need to convert data into a format suitable for entry into
LEAP. We provide you with hints to assist you and to help ensure that your approaches are
consistent. Most of the exercises come with answer keys, provided in this document that you
can use to check your work.

Within LEAP, you can use the Area: Revert to Version menu option to see the results of
individual exercises. For instance, users interested only in Exercise 3 can revert to the version
of the Freedonia area corresponding to a completed Exercise 3.

• Exercise 6 lets you use LEAP’s transportation analysis features to construct a range of
scenarios that examine different policies for reducing fuel use and pollution emissions

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 from cars and sport utility vehicles (SUVs). You can begin this exercise without having
completed any of the previous exercises.

• Exercise 7 lets you use LEAP’s optimization features to explore least-cost optimization
of energy systems, and modeling of energy storage. You also explore how to model a
cap on CO2 emissions – including how a cap might alter the set of technologies chosen
and the overall costs of a scenario. You can begin this exercise without having
completed any of the previous exercises.

Hardware Requirements: To complete these exercises, you will need a standard Windows-based
computer with Microsoft Windows 7, a minimum of 2 GB of RAM and a minimum of 1 GB of
free disk space. You will also need a pen, paper and a calculator, such as the one built-in to
Windows. Some exercises also require that you have access to Microsoft Excel.

Getting Started with LEAP

If LEAP is installed, start LEAP from the desktop icon or the Windows Start menu. If not, run the
installation program directly from the setup.exe file or download and run LEAP from
https://leap.sei.org/download, following the on-screen instructions. Once started, LEAP will
display a title screen, and then the main screen will be shown.

NB: To complete these exercises, you must be using a registered version of LEAP. The
evaluation version of LEAP does not allow you to save data, and so cannot be used for these
exercises. To learn more about licensing, please go to https://leap.sei.org/license.

The main screen of LEAP consists of multiple “views”, each of which lets you examine different
aspects of the software. The View Bar located on the left of the screen, displays an icon for each
view. Click on one of the View Bar icons or use the View Menu to change views,

Hint: If you are working on a lower resolution screen, you may want to hide the
View Bar to make more space on the screen. Use the menu option View: View
Bar to do this. When the View Bar is hidden, use the View menu above the tree
to switch views.
• The Analysis View is where you enter or view data and construct your models and scenarios.
• The Results View is where you examine the outcomes of the various scenarios as graphs and
tables.
• The Energy Balance View lets you see energy results calculated in LEAP as specially
formatted energy balances and Sankey diagrams.

For information on the other views, click on Help.

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 The Analysis View

The Analysis View (shown below) contains a number of controls apart from the view
bar mentioned above. On the left is a tree in which you view or edit your data structures.
On the right are two linked panes. At the top is a table in which you edit or view data
and create the modeling relationships. Below it is an area containing charts and tables that
summarize the data you entered. Above the data entry table is a toolbar that lets you select the data
you want to edit. The topmost toolbar gives access to standard commands such as saving data,
creating new areas, and accessing the supporting fuels, effects and references databases.

Select
The main menu and Data are Edit data by scenarios
toolbar give access to organized in a typing here. here.
major options. tree.

Switch Select
between units and
views of scaling
the Area factors
here. here.

The status bar notes Data can be

the current Area and reviewed in chart or
View. table format.

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The main parts of the Analysis View are described in more detail below:

Tree: The tree is the place where you organize your data for both the demand and supply
(also called transformation) analyses. In most respects the tree works just like the ones
in standard Windows tools such as File Explorer. You can rename branches by clicking
once on them and typing, and you can expand and collapse the tree outline by clicking
on the and symbols. Use the right-click menu to expand or collapse all branches or
to set the outline level.

To edit the tree, right-click on it and use the Add ( ), Delete ( ) and Properties ( )
buttons. All of these options are also available from the Tree menu option. You can
move selected tree branches by clicking and dragging them, or you can copy parts of
the tree by holding down the Ctrl key and then clicking and dragging branches.

The tree contains different types of branches. The type of a branch depends on its
context (for example whether it is part of your demand or transformation data structure,
or whether it is one of your own independent variables added under the “Key
Assumptions” branch. Different branch icons indicate different types of branches. The
main types of branches are listed below:

Category branches are used mainly for the hierarchical organization of data in
the tree. In a demand analysis, these branches only contain data on activity levels
and costs. In a supply analysis, category branches are used to indicate the main
energy conversion “modules” such as electric generation, oil refining and
resource extraction, as well as groups of processes and output fuels.

Technology branches contain data on the actual technologies that consume,

produce and convert energy. In a supply analysis, technology branches are shown
with the icon. They are used to indicate the particular processes within each
module that convert energy (for example a particular power plant in an electric
generation module). In a demand analysis, technology branches are associated
with particular fuels and normally have an energy intensity associated with them.
Demand technology branches appear differently depending on the type of
demand analysis methodology chosen. These methodologies are activity analysis
( ), total energy consumed ( ), stock analysis ( ) and transport analysis ( ).
In the first exercise, you will conduct an activity level-based analysis using
technology branches ( ). Later, in exercise six, you will conduct a transport
analysis using transportation technology branches ( ).

Key Assumption branches are where you create your own independent variables
such as macroeconomic or demographic indicators. These variables can then be
referred to in expressions under other branches.

Fuel branches are found under the Resources tree branch. They also appear
under each Transformation module, representing the Output Fuels produced by
the module and the Auxiliary and Feedstock Fuels consumed by the module.

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 Environmental Loading branches represent the various pollutants which are
emitted by energy demand and transformation technologies or which are tracked
in LEAP’s “Non Energy” emissions branches. Effect branches are always the
lowest level branches.

• Data Table: The Analysis View contains two panes to the right of the tree. The top
pane is a table in which you can view and edit the data associated with the variables at
each branch in the tree. As you click on different branches in the tree, the data screen
shows the data associated with branches at and immediately below the branch in the
tree. Each row in the table represents data for a branch in the tree. For example, in the
sample data set click on the “Demand” branch in the tree, and the data screen lists the
sectors of your demand analysis, then click on “Households” in the tree and the data
screen summarizes the household subsectors (in this case urban and rural).

At the top of the table is a set of tabs giving access to the different variables associated
with each branch. The tabs you see depend on how you specify your data structures, and
on what part of the tree you are working on. For example, when editing demand sectors,
you will normally see tabs giving access to the Activity Level and Demand Cost
variables, while at the lowest levels of the tree you will also see tabs for Final Energy
Intensity and Environmental Loading data.

• Chart/Table/Notes: The lower pane summarizes the data entered above as a chart or a
table. When viewing charts, use the toolbar on the right to customize the chart. Graphs
can be displayed in various formats (bar, pie, etc.), printed, or copied to the clipboard
for insertion into a report. The toolbar also allows you to export the data to Microsoft
Excel or PowerPoint.

• Scenario Selection Box: Above the data table is a selection box, which you can use to
select between Current Accounts and any of the scenarios in an area. Current Accounts
contains data for the historical years in your study. Different scenarios in LEAP all begin
with the same Current Accounts information. This box also shows you the basic
inheritance of each scenario. In LEAP, scenarios can inherit modeling expressions from
other scenarios. All scenarios ultimately inherit expressions from the Current Accounts
data set. In other words, unless you specifically enter scenario data for a variable, its
value will be constant in the future.

To create a new scenario, click on Scenarios ( ). When you create a new scenario, you
can specify that it be based on (i.e. inherits from) another scenario. Until you change
some expressions in the new scenario, it will give exactly the same results as its parent
scenario. Expressions displayed in the data table are color-coded so you can tell if they
were explicitly entered in the scenario (colored blue) or if they are inherited from the
parent scenario (colored black).

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1 Introduction to LEAP
1.1 Overview of Freedonia
To illustrate how LEAP can be used in a variety of contexts, we have structured the data in
Freedonia to reflect the characteristics of both an industrialized and developing country. For
instance, Freedonia’s urban population is fully electrified and living at OECD standards, while
its poorer rural population has limited access to modern energy services and is heavily reliant
on biomass fuels to meet basic needs. To simplify the exercises and reduce repetitive data entry,
we have deliberately left out several common sectors and end uses. For example, Exercise 1
considers only a partial residential sector: appliance energy use in Freedonia’s urban
households, and cooking and electricity use for Freedonia’s rural residents. Similarly, in
Exercise 2, there is no agriculture sector, and the only energy used by commercial buildings is
for space heating.

1.2 Settings
Before beginning the exercises, edit the settings of your study. These include the standard energy
unit for your study, the standard currency unit (including its base year), and basic monetary
parameters.

LEAP comes supplied with a completed Freedonia data set, so for the purpose of these exercises,
you will make a new blank data set called “New Freedonia”. Start by creating a new area in LEAP
called “New Freedonia” that is based only on default data (click on the menu option Area: New).

Review the Settings screen ( ) under the General menu option. In the Years tab, choose 2020 as
the Base Year, 2021 as the First Scenario Year and 2050 as the End Year. For exercises you will
do later on, set the Monetary Year to 2020 and the First Depletion Year to 2021. On the Scope &
Scale tab, you can initially leave all of the options unchecked since you will start by only
conducting a demand analysis. All other options can be left with their default values. Note: in this
exercise, you will be using only one year of historical data (2020).

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1.3 Demand
This preliminary demand analysis exercise considers only the energy used in Freedonia
households. You will start by developing a set of Current Accounts that depict household
energy uses in the most recent year for which data are available (2020). You will then construct
a Baseline scenario that examines how energy consumption patterns are likely to change in the
coming years in the absence of any new policy measures. Finally, you will develop a policy
scenario that examines how energy consumption growth can be reduced by the introduction of
energy efficiency measures.

1.3.1 Data Structures

The first step in an analysis is to design your data structure. The structure will determine what
kinds of technologies, policies, and alternative development paths you can analyze. It will be
guided by the information you collect (data and assumptions) and by the relationships you assume.
For instance, you might consider whether you want to include branches for all possible end-uses
or only for major categories of residential energy consumption, you might consider whether
residential energy intensities should be developed on a per capita (i.e. per person) or per household
basis, or you might consider whether energy demand be a direct function of income or prices. In
this simple exercise you do not need to include these factors.

Before using the software, it is therefore important to plan the way you will enter data into the
program. Read the following description of the relevant data (in sections 1.3.2 to 1.3.4) to get an
idea of the types of data structures that are possible. Note that there is more than one branch
structure that can be created with the data provided.

It is a good idea to sketch the structure before entering it into LEAP. Use the blank spaces below
for your sketch. If you are working as part of a training course, discuss your first sketch with your
instructor and revise your drawing if needed.

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First Sketch of Demand Tree Second Sketch of Demand Tree

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After reading though the following sections and finalizing a sketch of a demand tree, you should
now be ready to create a demand tree structure in LEAP that reflects the organization of
household demand data in Freedonia.

Create the tree structure using the

Add ( ), Delete ( ) and Properties
( ) commands available either by
right clicking on the Tree, or on the
Tree menu. In this exercise, you will
create various sub-sectors, end-
uses, and devices beneath the
“Households” branch. Upper-level
branches will be created as Category branches ( ), while the lower-level branches at which
you select a fuel and enter an energy intensity will be of the type Technology with Energy
Intensity ( ).

1.3.2 Current Accounts

In the year 2020, Freedonia’s 40 million people are living in 8 million households. Of these
households, 30% are in urban areas.

Urban Households

• 30% of urban households use electric stoves for cooking: the remainder use natural gas
stoves. All households have only one type of cooking device. The annual energy
intensity of electric stoves is 400 kWh per household, for natural gas stoves it is 60 cubic
meters per household.
• All urban households use electricity for lighting. The average urban household annually
consumes 400 kWh for lighting.
• 95% of urban households have refrigerators, which consume 500 kWh per year on
average.
• Other devices such as computers, televisions, and fans annually consume 800 kWh per
urban household.

Hint 1: In general, you can enter the above data as simple numeric values in the
Current Accounts Expression field. In the Scale and Units columns, select
appropriate units for the Activity Level and Final Energy Intensity for each
branch (scaling factors can be left blank).

Hint 2: When selecting units for Activity Level, it is important to select carefully
between “Saturation” and “Share”. Shares should be used only where activity
levels for adjacent branches need to sum to 100%, as in the case above of stove
fuel shares. LEAP calculations require that shares always sum to 100% across
immediately neighboring branches. Therefore, be sure to use “Saturation” for
items such as refrigerator ownership that need not sum to 100% to avoid later
error messages.

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 For stoves, specify “Share” as the unit of activity for each cooking stove (natural
gas or electric), and enter the percentage value for electric stoves. For gas
stoves, enter the expression Remainder(100) into the Activity Level variable,
and LEAP will use this expression to calculate the share of households using
gas stoves.

Hint 3: Expressions entered into the Final Energy Intensity variable are
interpreted by LEAP as annual values. For example, this means if you enter a
value of 400 kWh per household, LEAP will understand this as 400 kWh per
household, per year.

Rural Households

• A recent survey of all rural households (both electrified and non-electrified) indicates
the following types of cooking devices are used:

Cooking Fuel Consumed Share of Rural Annual Energy Intensity

Technology Households per Household
Charcoal Stove Charcoal 30 % 166 kg
LPG Stove LPG 15 % 59 kg
Wood Stove Wood 55 % 525 kg

• Only 25% of rural households have access to grid-connected electricity.

• 20% of the electrified rural households own a refrigerator, which consumes 500 kWh
per year on average.
• All electrified rural households use electricity for lighting, which consumes 335 kWh
per household. 20% of these households also use kerosene lamps for additional lighting,
using 10 liters per year.

Hint: Use “Saturation” for your activity units here since some households own
more than one lighting device. These units are often appropriate when
technologies may be used non-exclusively, such as electric lights AND kerosene
lamps.

• Other electric devices (TV, radio, fans, etc.), account for 111 kWh per household per
year.
• Non-electrified households rely exclusively on kerosene lamps for lighting, averaging
69 liters consumption per household per year.

Hint: This is a good place to save your data before going on. Do this by clicking
the icon or by selecting Area: Save. It is always a good idea to save your data
often.

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1.3.3 Viewing Results
Click on the Results View to check your results for Current Accounts. Notice that at
this stage we will only be viewing results for a single base year: 2020. Results can be
viewed in either chart or table format. For this exercise, click on the Table tab at the
top of the display window. On the toolbar above the table select Demand: Energy Demand
Final Units, then, using the Tree, select the demand branches you want to chart. Click on the
“Household” branch to display the household energy demands for Freedonia. Configure the
content of your table by displaying All Branches for the table's rows and All Fuels for the table's
columns. Use the decimal place buttons in the toolbar on the right of the table to show data with
one decimal place accuracy.

Adjusting the number of levels in the table will help you calculate category subtotals. Choose
an appropriate number by increasing the Levels to display the total fuel requirements for each
end use for “Rural” and “Urban”, “Electrified” and “Non Electrified” categories. You can save
this configuration for future reference creating a favorite chart under the Favorites: Save Chart
as Favorite menu option. This feature works much like the favorite/bookmark options in internet
browsers. Compare your results to the table below.

Current Accounts Energy Demand in 2020 (Million GJ)

Hint: To display subcategories, you will need to ensure that the Subtotals button
has been checked and set the number of levels to three (both of these options are
in the toolbar at the top of Results View).

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Current Accounts Energy Demand in 2020 (Million GJ)

Hint: to get this chart in Results View, select All Fuels on the X-axis and All Branches on the legend. Show two
levels of detail for branches.

Tip: to see a version of Freedonia matching the results shown here, first open the standard
Freedonia area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version 1.3.3

1.3.4 Baseline Scenario

You are now ready to create your first forward-looking scenario for the period 2021 to 2050.
This will analyze how household energy demands are likely to evolve over time under current
policy conditions. Click the Scenarios button ( ) and use the Scenarios screen to add a first
scenario. Give it the name “Baseline” and the abbreviation “BAS”. Add an explanatory note to
describe the scenario, e.g., “business-as-usual development; official GDP and population
projections; no new policy measures.”

Exit the Scenario screen and, if necessary, select the Baseline scenario from the selection box
at the top of the screen. Now enter the assumptions and predictions of the future data in
Freedonia as described below.

Hint: If you wish to edit the base year data, you need to first return to Current
Accounts. Always check that you are entering data into the correct scenario.

First enter the basic demographic changes that are expected to take place in Freedonia. The
number of households is expected to grow from 8 million in the year 2020 at 3% per year.

Hint: To enter a growth rate, press Ctrl-G or click on the button attached to
the expression field and select Growth Rate (you must be in a non-Current
Accounts scenario to see this option). You can also type Growth(3%) directly
into the Expression field.

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Urban Households
• By 2050, 45% of Freedonia’s households will be in urban areas.

Hint: This is an example of a common situation in LEAP, one in which you wish
to specify just a few data values (2020, implicitly, and 2050) and then have LEAP
linearly interpolate to calculate the values of all the years between. You can
enter interpolated data in a number of different ways. The simplest way is to
click on the button attached to the expression field and select End Year Value.
Then simply type in the value 45. When you click OK, LEAP will create an Interp
function expression. You can also type the function directly into the Expression
field as Interp(2050, 45.0).

Important: You may need to adapt the expressions you enter into LEAP to reflect
your computer’s local number formatting conditions. For example, in many
Spanish and French speaking countries the above expression would be entered
as Interp(2050; 45,0). In these exercises all the expressions are written assuming
English (US) number formatting.

• Increased preference for electric stoves results in a 55% market share by 2050.
• The energy intensity of electric and gas stoves is expected to decrease by half a percent
every year due to the penetration of more energy-efficient technologies.
• As incomes rise and people purchase larger appliances, annual refrigeration intensity
increases to 600 kWh per household by 2050.
• Similarly, annual lighting intensity increases to 500 kWh per household by 2050.
• The use of other electricity-using equipment grows rapidly, at a rate of 2.5% per year.

Hint: To specify a decrease, simply enter a negative growth rate.

Rural Households
• An ongoing rural electrification program is expected to increase the percentage of rural
households with electricity service to 28% in 2030 and 50% in 2050.
• As incomes increase, the energy intensity of electric lighting is expected to increase by
1% per year.
• The number of grid-connected rural homes using a refrigerator is expected to increase
to 40% in 2030, and 66% in 2050.
• Due to rural development activities the share of various cooking devices in all
households (both electrified and non-electrified) changes so that by 2050, LPG stoves
are used by 55% of households, and charcoal stoves by 25%. The remaining rural
households use wood stoves.

Hint: Save your data before going on by pressing the Save button ( ) or
keyboard shortcut Ctrl-S.

17
1.3.5 Baseline Results
Click on the Results View again and select the Chart tab at the top of the display window to
display your results graphically.
To configure your results:

• On the Chart, use the selection boxes to select which types of data you want to see on
the legend and X-axis of the chart. Typically, you will select years as the X-axis for
many charts and fuels or branches as the legend.
• Choose Demand: Energy Demand Final Units, as you did for the table in the Current
Accounts exercise. Then, using the Tree, select the demand branch you want to chart.
Click on the “Demand” branch to display the total energy demands for Freedonia.
• Double-click on the chart's Y-axis units to change the units of the report. You can further
customize chart options using the toolbar on the right of the chart. Use the toolbar to
select options such as the chart type (area, bar, line, pie, etc.) or whether the bar chart is
stacked or not.

Energy Demand by Fuel in the Baseline Scenario (Million GJ)

Compare your projections with the tables shown below (note that tables in LEAP are formatted
slightly differently than those shown here, but you should be able to find all of the relevant
information by adjusting the number of branch levels). Start by checking results at the highest
levels (i.e. start by clicking on “Demand” and then work your way down to more detailed levels
to investigate where any problems may lie. Adjust your data before proceeding. For this
exercise, you may ignore differences of less than 1%.

18
Energy Demand in the Baseline Scenario (Million GJ)

By Fuel By Branch

Tip: to see a version of Freedonia matching the results shown here, first open the standard
Freedonia area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version 1.3.4.

19
 Explore different results in LEAP and try to answer the following questions:
1. What is the share of electricity use in urban areas and rural areas in 2020?
How does this change in 2050?
2. What end-use predominates residential electricity consumption in 2020 and
2050?
3. Overall, does the energy use of biomass (wood and charcoal) increase or
decrease? To what extent?

1.4 Transformation
The Transformation sector uses special branches called “Modules” to model energy supply and
conversion sectors such as electricity generation, refining, or charcoal production. Each module
contains one or more “Processes”, which represent an individual technology such as a particular
type of electric plant or oil refinery and produces one or more “Output Fuels”. These represent
the energy products produced by the module. The basic structure of a module is shown below:

LEAP Transformation Module Structure

In this exercise you will develop a simplified model of the electricity transmission and
generation sectors in Freedonia. This model will be the basis for the more detailed and realistic
model you will create in Exercise 3.

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Return to the Settings screen ( ) and make sure the boxes marked Demand, Load Shapes, and
Transformation & Resources are checked. Next to the Load Shapes check box select the option
“Electricity”. These extra settings are needed to allow for modeling of Transformation systems.

1.4.1 Transmission and Distribution

You will start by adding a simple,
non-dispatched module to
represent electricity and
transmission and distribution
(T&D) losses and natural gas
pipeline losses. In the base year,
electricity T&D losses amount to
15% of the electricity generated in
2020. In the Baseline scenario
these are expected to decrease to
12% by 2050. Natural gas pipeline
losses amount to 2% in 2020 and
are expected to decrease to 1.5%
by 2050 in the Baseline scenario.

To create a simple module, right-click on the Transformation branch on the Tree and select the
Add command ( ). On the resulting Module properties screen (shown above), enter the name
“Transmission and Distribution”, and use the checkboxes to indicate the types of data you will
be entering.

Important: check the box marked “Simple non-dispatched module: one output
fuel per process”, and then mark that you want to enter efficiency data as Losses.

When you click OK, the module is added. Expand the branches beneath the newly created
module and you will see a new branch marked “Processes”. Click on this and add a new process
called “Electricity”. Select the Feedstock Fuel (electricity), and then enter percentage share of
electricity losses on the Energy Losses tab. Repeat this process to add a process for natural gas
then enter the data on natural gas pipeline losses.

Hint: Use the same features as in demand to enter time-varying data: switch to
the Baseline scenario and use the Interp function to specify how electric losses
change over time.

21
1.4.2 Electricity Generation
Next you will simulate how electricity is generated in Freedonia. Add a second Transformation
module called “Electricity Generation”.

Make sure that the Electricity

Generation module appears
below the Transmission and
Distribution module in the list
of modules. You may need to
use the up ( ) and down (
) buttons to reorder modules.
The sequencing of modules
reflects the flow of energy
resources from
primary/extraction (bottom of
the list) to final use (top of the
list). Electricity must be
generated before it is
transmitted and distributed.
Similarly, a module for
mining of coal that feeds electricity generation would need to be added lower down on the list.

Make sure that you set correct Properties ( ) for Electricity Generation module (see above).
Since you will be specifying data on plant Capacities and Efficiencies, be sure that these items
are checked. For now, you can leave costs unchecked. You will enter this data later.

Next you will add three processes to represent the various power plants available in the region.
Information on some of the basic characteristics of these plants is given in the following table:

Exogenous Efficiency Merit Maximum Historical

Plant Type Feedstock Capacity (MW) (%) Order Availability (%) Production (GWh)
Existing Coal Steam Coal Bituminous 1000 30 1 (base) 70 3343.2
Existing Hydro Hydro 500 100 1 (base) 70 1731.3
Existing Oil Combustion Turbine Residual Fuel Oil 800 25 2 (peak) 80 895.5

In this exercise you are going to simulate base year operations in a special way, since for that
year you have data describing known (historical) operation of power plants. In later years, for
which there are no operational data, you will simulate the dispatch of different power plants by
specifying a dispatch rule and various parameters that will allow LEAP to simulate the dispatch
of power plants by merit order.

To enable this type of simulation first make sure that the First Simulation Year variable is set
to its default expression of FirstScenarioYear in Current Accounts. If not, just delete any
existing expression to reset to this default. Next, set the Dispatch Rule to MeritOrderDispatch
for all processes. These rules will be obeyed from 2021 onwards. You can select the dispatch
rule from the list of available options from the button at the end of the expression box.

22
The electricity system operates with a minimum Planning Reserve Margin of 35%. Enter this
at the Electricity branch under the high-level Load Shapes branch.

You also need to specify a system load shape that describes how the electric load varies from
hour to hour within each year. Follow this process for entering a system load shape:

1. First, create the set of time slices into which the year will be divided. These are entered
on the General: Time Slices ( ) screen. Use the setup button to create nine slices as in
the screen shown here.

The time slices screen should then look like this:

2. Next, you need to create a yearly load shape with values for each of the hourly slices
you just specified. To do this, go to the General: Yearly Shapes screen (shown below)
and enter a “Peak Load Shape” for the entire system. Enter the values as shown in the
screen below. We suggest you call the shape SystemShape.

23
 Important:
Select Peak
Load Shape

Hint: The value in hour 0 implicitly is always 100%. This does need to be
entered explicitly. Make sure you enter the minimum value of 10% in the
Minimum: box at the bottom of the screen, which corresponds to the hour 8760.

3. Finally, return to the Analysis View screen and select Current Accounts.
Now create a link to this new load shape in the System Load Shape variable,
which is located at the Electricity branch under the high-level Load Shapes
branch.

The easiest way to do this is click on the button attached to the expression field and
select the YearlyShape: SystemShape option, or simply type the expression
YearlyShape(SystemShape).

1.4.2.1 The Baseline Scenario

You can now specify how the electric generation system is likely to change in the future in the
Baseline scenario.

• In the Baseline scenario, existing coal power plants are expected to be retired. Five
hundred megawatts of existing coal-fired steam plants will be retired in 2030 and the
remaining five hundred megawatts are retired in 2040.

Hint: The resulting expression for coal capacity should appear as:
Step(2030, 500, 2040, 0)
When entering explicit capacity values to reflect existing capacity and/or
planned capacity and retirements, use the Exogenous Capacity tab.

• In the future, to meet growing demands and replace retired plants, new power plants are
expected to consist of base load coal-fired steam plants (built in units of 500 MW, with
a thermal efficiency of 35%) and new peak load fuel oil-fired combustion turbines (built

24
 in units of 300 MW with a thermal efficiency of 30%). Both types of plants have a life
expectancy of 30 years and a maximum availability of 80%.

Enter this data in LEAP by adding two new processes “New Coal Steam” and “New Oil
Combustion Turbine”, under Current Accounts. Use the above data to specify the Efficiency,
Maximum Availability and Lifetime of the plants. Note however that these two plants don’t
actually exist in the base year (they are candidates for addition in the future). Therefore, leave
Exogenous Capacity and Historical Production for these two plants set to zero in Current
Accounts. Before leaving Current Accounts, you should also set the Dispatch Rule for these
two processes to MeritOrderDispatch (the same rule used for all processes) and set the Merit
Order variable for these processes to “1” for New Coal Steam and “2” for New Oil Combustion
Turbine.

Next, return to the Baseline scenario. Here you are going to use the Endogenous Capacity
variable to specify the new capacity for these two plants will be added automatically by LEAP
in order to prevent the reserve margin falling below the planning reserve. In the Endogenous
Capacity screen, Use the button on the right to add each of these two new processes into the
screen. Next, enter the Addition Size Expression for each of the two new processes (500 MW
and 300 MW). It is important to ensure that New Coal Steam appears first in the list. If
necessary, you can adjust its position using the and arrows. Your screen should then look
like the following:

For more information on exogenous and endogenous capacity, please refer to

the help file, found in LEAP under Help: Contents.

25
1.4.3 Viewing Results
Click on the Results View to see the results of the Baseline scenario. Select the
Transformation\Electricity Generation\Processes branch and view the results for
categories such as capacities, energy outputs, and module reserve margins. Compare
your results to the tables and charts provided below.

Electricity Generation in Freedonia: Baseline Scenario (TWh)

Notes: base year = 5.97 TWh, 2050 = 34.58 TWh

Hint: To get this chart, click on the Processes under the Electricity Generation module in the Tree,
select Transformation: Outputs by Output Fuel. Next, on the chart legend, select All Branches. Use
the chart toolbar on the right to select an area chart. Finally, make sure units are set to Terawatt-hours
on the Y-axis. To save all these settings for future reference, click on the Favorites menu and choose
Save Chart as Favorite. Note that the order of processes is based on their order in the tree you set up
in Analysis View.

26
Electricity Generation Capacity: Baseline Scenario (MW)

Notes: base year = 2,300 MW, 2050 =10,900 MW

Reserve Margin (%) Power Dispatched in 2050 (MW)

Tip: to see a version of Freedonia matching the results shown here, first open the standard
Freedonia area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version 1.4.3.

27
1.5 Emissions
You will now use LEAP to estimate the
emissions of major pollutants in the
Baseline scenario. To do this, first you
must return to Analysis View and go to Settings
to switch on Energy Sector Effect Loadings.
Now select Current Accounts and then create
Effect branches immediately under each relevant
demand technology (those marked with the
icon) and under each relevant Transformation
feedstock fuel (those marked with the icon).

You can create these branches by selecting from

the default IPCC Tier 1 emission factors stored
in the TED database. To do this, right-click on a
technology and then select the Add multiple
effects option ( ). This will display the box
shown on the right.

Make sure the input fuels to the TED technology

are similar to fuels used by the LEAP
technology. In some cases, the IPCC Tier 1
technologies do not contain entries for all fuels.
In this case you will need to pick the closest
matching entry (e.g. the IPCC “Oil Residential” category can be linked to the LEAP “Kerosene
Lighting” category).

You do NOT need to add environmental loading data for any demand-side devices that consume
electricity, such as lights or refrigerators, since their environmental impacts occur upstream
(e.g. in the power plants that produce the electricity).

28
1.5.1 Viewing Results
Click on the Results View to see environmental results for the Baseline scenario.
Click on the top-level branch “Freedonia” and select the result Environment: 100-
Year GWP: Direct (At Point of Emissions). Compare your results to those shown
below. Also, check the results for other non-greenhouse gases, such as sulfur and nitrogen
oxides.

One Hundred Year Global Warming Potential of Emissions from Freedonia

Baseline Scenario (all GHGs)

Note: Base Year = 6.0, 2050 = 33.7 Million Tonnes CO2-equivalent.

Tip: to see a version of Freedonia matching the results shown here, first open the standard
Freedonia area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version 1.5.1.

29
1.6 A Second Scenario: Demand-Side-Management
You will now create a second
scenario to explore the
potential for electricity
conservation in Freedonia.
Enter the Scenarios ( ) screen
to add a new scenario. Add the
scenario under the Baseline
scenario so that by default it
inherits all of the Baseline
scenario assumptions and
modeling expressions.

Give the new scenario the name

“Demand Side Management”,
the abbreviation “DSM”, and
add the following notes:
“Efficient lighting, transmission and distribution loss reductions, and electric system load factor
improvements.”

Exit the scenario manager and select the Demand Side Management scenario on the main
screen, and then edit the data for the scenario to reflect the following notes:
Hint: Remember you must be in Analysis View to change scenarios. Use the
View Bar to select it if you are not.

The DSM scenario consists of four policy measures:

1. Refrigeration: Proposed new efficiency standards for refrigerators are expected to cut
the average energy intensities of refrigeration in urban households by 5% in 2030
compared to Current Accounts values, and by 20% in 2050. In rural households,
intensities are expected to remain unchanged.

Hint: You can enter this information in several ways.

• Use the Time Series Wizard, select interpolation, and enter the values
for refrigerator energy intensity in future years (calculate the values on
your own), or
• enter an expression which calculates the value for you, such as
Interp(2030, BaseYearValue * 0.95, 2050, BaseYearValue * 0.8)

2. Lighting: A range of measures including new lighting standards and utility demand-
side-management programs are expected to reduce the energy intensity of electric
lighting in urban households by 1% per year (-1%/year), and to reduce the expected
growth in electric lighting intensity in rural areas from 1% (Baseline scenario) to 0.3%
per year (+0.3%/year).

30
 3. Transmission and Distribution: Under the
planned DSM program, electric transmission
and distribution losses are expected to be
reduced to 12% by 2035 and to 9% by 2050.

4. Electric System Load Factor

Improvements: Various load-leveling
measures in the DSM plan are expected to lead
to gradual improvements in the system load
factor, which increases to about 64% in 2050.
Do not enter this load factor explicitly in
LEAP. Instead, to represent this new load
factor create a second yearly shape with the
data shown on the right and named
DSMShape.

Hint: Create a new yearly shape called “DSMShape” (see section 1.4.2 to
remind you how to do this), which will represent the load shape of the system in
2050. Then, you will have to tell LEAP to interpolate between the base and end
year load curves. In the DSM scenario go to the System Load Shape variable
under the high-level Load Shapes branch and click on the button to the right
of the expression field and choose YearlyShape: DSMShape or enter expression
YearlyShape(DSMShape). The chart below will show how LEAP interpolates
between the load curve in 2020 (System Load Curve) and the load curve in 2050
(DSM Load Curve).

Interpolation of System Load Curve through 2050 for DSM Scenario

31
1.6.1 DSM Scenario Results
Click on the Results View to see the results of the DSM scenario. Compare your
results with those shown below:

Electricity Generation: DSM Scenario vs. Baseline Scenario

Electricity Generation (TWh)

Capacity (GW)

Generation in DSM scenario in 2050 = 29.16 TWh. Capacity = 7.40 GW.

32
 Hint: To recreate the electricity generation graph in the results view, go to
Transformation: Outputs by Output Fuel, and set units and scenarios to match
the above graph. Make sure that the highlighted branch on the tree matches the
results that you want to see (in this case you should have
Transformation\Electricity Generation\Processes” selected). Click on the “No
Comparison” option above the chart and select Avoided vs Baseline. Check the
table view to see exact values in a given year.

Tip: to see a version of Freedonia matching the results shown here, first open the standard
Freedonia area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version 1.6.1.

Explore different results in LEAP and try to answer the following questions:
1. In the DSM scenario, what is the percent reduction in electricity demand in 2050
compared to the Baseline scenario? What is the reduction in lighting demand and
cooling demand?
2. How much less power generation (GWh) and generation capacity (MW) are
required in 2050 in the DSM, compared to the Baseline scenario?
3. How many tons of SO2 emissions are avoided in 2050?

33
2 Demand
Exercise 2 further develops the demand analysis begun in Exercise 1 covering three other
sectors: industry, transport, and commercial buildings. Use the information in section 2 to
complete the tree structure, Current Accounts data and Baseline scenario analysis for these
sectors.

2.1 Industry

2.1.1 Current Accounts

There are two principal energy-
intensive industries in Freedonia: Industrial Output (2020)
Iron and Steel, and Pulp and
Iron and Steel 600,000 tonnes
Paper. All other industries can be grouped Pulp and paper 400,000 tonnes
into a single category. The adjoining table Other Industry 1.8 billion USD
shows the output of each subsector.
Industrial energy analysis is typically done
in either economic (e.g., value added) or physical (e.g. tonnes) terms. The choice generally
depends on data availability and the diversity of products within a subsector. In this exercise,
both methods are used.

Hint: When adding the branch for “Industry”, set the activity level unit to “No
Data” (since for this sector you are specifying different activity level units for
each subsector).

Energy use in the Iron and Steel and Pulp and Paper industries can be divided into two end-
uses: process heat and motive power.

Iron and Steel

• Currently, process heat requirements average 24.0 GJ per tonne, and boilers using
bituminous coal produce all of this.
• Each tonne of steel requires an average of 2.5 GJ of electricity use.

Pulp and Paper

• Wood-fired boilers meet all process heat requirements of 40.0 GJ per tonne of pulp and
paper products.
• Each tonne of pulp & paper requires 3 MWh of electricity use.

Other Industry
• Freedonia’s other industries consumed a total of 36 Million GJ of energy in 2020.
• 40% of this energy was electricity and the remainder was residual fuel oil.

Hint: When adding the branch for “Other Industry”, set the branch type to the
green folder icon. This indicates that you want to enter an aggregate energy
intensity at this branch. You can then add two more branches for electricity and
fuel oil below this branch. These lower branches will only contain fuel shares,
34
 not energy intensities. Note that you will also need to calculate the energy
intensity in GJ/US Dollars using the total value added for the “Other”
subsectors (see above).

2.1.2 Baseline Scenario

Iron and Steel
• Total output is not expected to change: all plants are operating at maximum capacity
and no new plants are planned within the analysis period.
• Natural gas is expected to provide for 10% of process heat requirements by 2050.
• Natural gas boilers are 10% more efficient than coal boilers.

Hint: You will need to switch back to Current Accounts to add a new branch for
Natural Gas. You can use the following simple expression to calculate natural
gas energy intensity as a function of coal energy intensity:
Coal * 0.9
Hint: Remember to use the Interp and Remainder functions to help you calculate
boiler shares.

Pulp and Paper

• Two new paper
plants are expected:
one in 2025 and
one in 2030. Each
will add 100
thousand tonnes
per year to the total
output of this
industry.

Hint: Use the Step function in the Time Series Wizard to specify discrete
changes in activity levels or other variables (see right).

Other Industry
• Output of other industries is expected to grow at a rate of 3.5% per year.
• The fuel share of electricity is expected to rise to 55% by the year 2050.

35
2.1.3 Viewing Results

Now review your results and compare them to the answer sheet shown below.

Industrial Energy Demand in Freedonia: Baseline (Million GJ)

By Fuel By Branch

2.2 Transport

2.2.1 Current Accounts

Passenger Transport

• All passenger transportation in Freedonia is either by road (cars and buses) or rail. You
may ignore air and water transport for this exercise.
• In the year 2020, cars were estimated to have traveled about 8 billion km; buses traveled
about 1 billion km.
• Surveys also estimate that cars have a (distance-weighted) average number of occupants
(load factor) of 2.5 people, while the similar average for buses is 40 passengers.
• Surveys have found that the current stock of cars has a fuel economy of about 12 km/liter
of gasoline (roughly 28 MPG). Buses, in contrast, travel about 3 km/liter of diesel.
• The national railroad reports 15 billion passenger-km traveled in 2020.

36
 Hints:
o Assume that all current cars use gasoline fuel, and all current buses use diesel
fuel.
o You may wish to enter total population as the activity level at the sector level
(see section 1.3 for population data).
o Use the information above to calculate the total number of passenger-kms, the
percentage for each mode, and the average energy intensity (per passenger-
km). Fill out the form below to help you.

Calculating Passenger-Km
A Car Use (billion veh-km)
B Load Factor (pass-km/veh-km) 2.5
C=A*B = Total Car Pass-km

D Bus Use (billion veh-km)

E Load Factor (pass-km/veh-km) 40.0
F=D*E Total Bus Pass-km

G=F+C Road Passenger-km

H Rail Passenger-km
I=G+H Total Passenger-km

Calculating Energy Intensities

J Car Fuel Economy (veh-km/l) 12.0
K Load Factor (pass-km/veh-km) 2.5
L=1/(J*K) Energy Intensity (liters/pass-km)

M Bus Fuel Economy (veh-km/l) 3.0

N Bus Load Factor (pass-km/veh-km) 40.0
O=1/(M*N) Energy Intensity (liters/pass-km)

• 20% of rail transit is by electric trains, the remainder by diesel trains. The energy
intensity of electric trains is 0.1 kWh per passenger-km. The energy intensity of diesel
trains is 25% higher than that of electric trains.

37
Freight Transport
Units Cancellation in LEAP
• An average of 250 tonne-km of freight When specifying freight transport activities,
is transported per capita. notice how LEAP automatically cancels out the
• 85% of freight transport is by road, the numerator and denominator units of your data
rest by rail. as you step down through the branches of the
• Road transport uses an average of 4 MJ tree.
of diesel fuel per tonne-km.
• Diesel freight trains have an energy In this example, start by specifying population
at the sector level, at the next level you then
intensity of 3 MJ/tonne-km.
specify tonne-km/person. In other words,
LEAP cancels the units

[People] x [tonne-km]
[person]
2.2.2 Baseline Scenario
Passenger Transport

• The unit demand for passenger travel (passenger-km/person) is expected to rise slightly
faster than average income levels (the elasticity of demand for travel with respect to
income is 1.1).
• At the same time the total population is growing at 2.5% per year.
• Average income per capita is expected to grow from its current level, $3000, at a rate
of 3.5% per year through 2050.
• Cars are expected to account for 75% of passenger road traffic by 2050.

Hint: create new branches called “Income” and “Population” under “Key
Assumptions” on the Tree, then calculate future transport demands as a function
of these variables. Use the following expression to model the growth in per
capita transport demand, under the Baseline scenario:
GrowthAs(Key\Income, 1.1)

Freight Transport

• The per capita demand for freight transport is expected to grow at a rate of 2% per year
over the analysis period.
• The energy efficiency of all transport modes (both passenger and freight) is expected
improve by 0.5% per year through 2050, except for cars, which are expected to improve
by 1% per year.

38
2.2.3 Viewing Results

Now switch to Results View and compare your results with the tables shown below.

Transport Energy Demand in Freedonia: Baseline (Million GJ)

By Branch By Fuel

Explore different results in LEAP and your knowledge to try to answer the following
questions:

1. Which transport subsectors have the largest potential to reduce the consumption of
oil products over the next 30 years?

2. List three measures that could be implemented to achieve these reductions and
indicate how they could be modeled in a transport scenario.

2.3 Commerce: Useful Energy Analysis

This exercise considers space-heating uses in commercial buildings and serves to
introduce the application of useful energy analysis techniques. Useful energy analysis
is particularly helpful where multiple combinations of fuels and technologies can
provide a common service at (such as heating), and in situations where you want to
independently model device efficiencies, and overall energy service requirements.

39
2.3.1 Current Accounts
 Commercial buildings in Freedonia utilized a total of 100 million square meters of floor
space in 2020.
 Total final energy consumption for heating purposes was 20 million GJ in
2020.Residual fuel oil and electricity each currently supply half of the total heating
energy. Natural gas is expected to be introduced later.
 Electric heaters have an efficiency of nearly 100%, while fuel oil boiler efficiencies
average 65%, and natural gas boilers have 80% efficiency.

Hint: For this exercise, you need to

setup a Category with Energy
Intensity branch for heating. Check
the boxes to indicate that you wish to
conduct a useful energy analysis and
that you wish to enter final energy
intensities in Current Accounts. Use
the branch properties screen to set
this up as shown right.

2.3.2 Baseline Scenario

• Floor space in the commercial sector is expected to grow at a rate of 3% per year.
• Due to expected improvements in commercial building insulation standards, the useful
energy intensity (i.e. the amount of heat delivered per square meter 1) is expected to
decline by 1% per year, until 2050.
• By 2050, natural gas boilers are expected to have reached a market penetration (i.e.
share of floor space) of 25%, while fuel oil boilers are expected to decline to only a 10%
market share. Electricity heating meets the remaining requirements. Notice that in future
scenarios, the Activity Level shares are different from the Fuel Share percentages that
you entered for Current Accounts to account for the different device efficiencies.
• Finally, gradually improving energy efficiency standards for commercial boilers are
expected to lead to improvements in the average efficiency of fuel oil and natural gas
boilers. Fuel oil systems are expected to reach an efficiency of 75% by 2050, and natural
gas systems are expected to reach an efficiency of 85% by 2050.

2.3.3 Viewing Results

After entering the above data, switch to Results View and compare your results with
the table shown below.

1
As opposed to the final energy intensity: the amount of fuel used per square meter.
40
Commercial Space Heating Energy Demand: Baseline (Million GJ)

2.4 Total Final Demands

Before proceeding to the Transformation exercises, check your overall energy demand results
by comparing them with these charts.

Energy Demand by Sector: Baseline Scenario (Million GJ)

Energy Demand by Fuel Group: Baseline Scenario (Million GJ)

41
 Hint: To see the energy demand by fuel group graph above, choose Demand:
Energy Demand Final Units and choose fuels on the right legend drop down
menu and then select the Fuel Groups check box from the menu above the chart.

Tip: to see a version of Freedonia matching the results shown here, first open the standard
Freedonia area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version 2.4.0.

Think about LEAP’s functionality to develop a demand analysis in your country,

and try to answer the following questions:

1. In what other situations might it be convenient to apply useful energy

analysis techniques?
2. What problems might be encountered when applying useful energy
analysis techniques in your country?

42
3 Transformation
In this third exercise you will further develop the simplified Transformation data set
you constructed in Exercise 1. In this exercise you will add new modules to examine
charcoal production, oil refining and coal mining.

3.1 Charcoal Production

No charcoal is imported or exported.
It is all produced by conversion from
firewood. All charcoal in Freedonia is
currently made using traditional earth
mounds. These have a conversion
efficiency (on an energy basis) of
around 20%. In the future, more
efficient “brick beehive” kilns are
expected to be available. These have
a conversion efficiency of 47%. They
are expected to be used to meet 5% of
total charcoal demand by 2030, and
20% of charcoal demand by 2050.

Hint: Create a standard (i.e. not a simple) module and select the option to enter
efficiency data as efficiencies (to match the data above).

3.2 Electricity Generation

With the addition of the extra demand sectors in Exercise 2, the demand for electricity
generation triples to around 16,200 GWh. Thus, you now need to specify a larger and more
realistic electric generation system to match the additional demand for electricity. Change the
data you entered in Exercise 1 in Current Accounts for the Electricity Generation module to
match those below:

Plant Type Year 2020 Base Year Output

Capacity (MW) (% of GWh)
Existing Hydro 1,000 34%
Existing Coal Steam 2,500 44%
Existing Oil Combustion Turbine 2,000 22%
Total 5,500 100% (16,200 GWh)

In addition, in the Baseline scenario, assume the capacity of “Existing Coal Steam” plants
decrease with 1,500 MW retired in 2030 and the remaining capacity all retired in 2040. You
can enter this in the Exogenous Capacity variable under the Baseline scenario using the Step
expression as follows:

Step(2030, 1000, 2040, 0)

43
3.3 Oil Refining
In 2020, Freedonia's oil refineries had the capacity to handle 6 million tonnes of crude oil
feedstocks 2. The efficiency of the refineries (on an energy basis) was about 95%. There are
currently no plans to increase refining capacity.

The refineries used only one feedstock fuel: crude oil, and produced seven types of products:
gasoline, avgas, kerosene, diesel, residual/fuel oil, LPG, and lubricants. The refineries can be
operated with sufficient flexibility that the mix of refinery products matches the mix of
requirements for those products. Any oil product requirements that cannot be produced from
the refinery are imported into Freedonia.

To set up oil refining in LEAP, first create a new module named "Oil Refining" and set the
properties to be a standard module that includes capacity data. Leave all other checkboxes
unchecked. Once the module has been created, add one process to represent all refining in
Freedonia. In Current Accounts, set the Dispatch Rule for this process to PercentShare. Also
set the First Simulation Year variable to BaseYear and make sure the Process Share is equal
to 100.

3.4 Coal Mining

All coal mined in Freedonia is bituminous. In the base year, the country’s coal mines produced
3.41 million tonnes of coal, mining capacity stood at 6 million tonnes, and the efficiency of coal
mining (including coal washing plants) was 80%.

The Baseline scenario assumes that coal mining capacity will increase, reaching 14 million
tonnes by 2030, and 23 million tonnes by 2050. It is assumed that mine capacity will expand
linearly in years between these data years. In spite of this expansion program, it is expected that
sometime after 2040 imports of coal will be needed to meet domestic requirements, not because
of resource limits, but because the capacity of the mines is unable to expand as fast as demand
for coal grows.

Hint: Known capacity should be entered in the Exogenous Capacity variable.

Imports of coal should not be entered as capacity, but instead are governed by
variables at the “Coal Mining\Output Fuels” branch. Make sure that the
Shortfall Rule is set to Import to meet shortfall to meet the modeling demands
described above.

2
Note: you are limited to entering capacity data in energy units (i.e. tonnes of oil equivalent per year). For the
purposes of this exercise, assume 1 tonne of crude oil = 1 TOE.
44
3.5 Resources
The final step in entering data is to specify which primary
resources are produced domestically and which need to be
imported. In LEAP you can specify the base year reserves of
fossil fuels and the maximum annual production of renewable
energy forms such as hydro. Unless you indicate otherwise,
LEAP will assume that any resources not available domestically
are imported.

Data on resources are stored under the “Resources” branches.

Notice that one branch is listed for each fuel used in the
Freedonia data set. These branches are updated automatically as
you edit the rest of the tree structure in LEAP. You cannot add
or delete branches in the resources part of the tree.

In Freedonia, the only domestic energy resources are coal,

hydropower, and biomass (wood). All natural gas and oil
resources have to be imported. No detailed data is available yet
on the coal, hydropower and biomass resource base, so for this
analysis assume that these resources are essentially unlimited.

To reflect this in LEAP, go to the “Resources” branches and enter base year reserves (for coal)
and maximum production (for wood and hydropower) of Unlimited GJ for each. Enter zeros for
the reserves of crude oil and natural gas. Notice that, by definition, you do not need to enter
resource availability data for any of the secondary fuels.

45
3.6 Viewing Results
Switch to the Energy Balance View and check your base and end year energy
balances against the following tables:

Energy Balance of Freedonia in 2020 (Million GJ)

Baseline Scenario Energy Balance of Freedonia in 2050 (Million GJ)

Hint: If your energy balance does not seem correct, troubleshoot demand and Current Accounts
(in this case 2020) before addressing any errors in your scenarios. Some other tips for
troubleshooting energy balances include:

46
 1. If the value of energy requirements (independently of whether they are
imported/exported/domestically produced) does not match the results, it is good to trace
your results to see if you can localize which demand, transformation and resources
branches are not functioning as you expect.

2. If the energy requirements seem correct, but imports, exports and/or domestic
production seem incorrect, then it is possible that numbers have been input correctly,
but branch properties are not set correctly. Here are some things to check:

o Check the output properties of each transformation module. This can be found
in Analysis View, in the "Output Fuels" folder in each transformation module
(i.e. Transformation\Oil Refining\Output Fuels). Check the Import Target and
Export Target variables to make sure those make sense.
o Check the Base Year Reserves and Maximum Production variables in the
“Resources” branches to ensure that you have sufficient primary and secondary
resources to produce resources and energy domestically.
o Check the import and export variables at the Primary and Secondary Resources
branch. These variables add additional imports and exports for resources that
have not been already specified as outputs of one or more Transformation
modules.

Within the Energy Balance View, switch from the Table display to show a Sankey Diagram
for 2050. This diagram is a representation of the flows through different elements of your
energy system.

47
 Now switch to Results View and compare your results with the charts shown below.

Electricity Generation: Baseline Scenario (TWh)

Notes: Base Year = 16.2 TWh, 2050 = 62.6 TWh

Electricity Generation Capacity: Baseline Scenario (GW)

Notes: Base Year = 5.5 GW, 2050 = 19.8 GW

48
Tip: to see a version of Freedonia matching the results shown here, first open the standard
Freedonia area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version 3.6.0.

Explore different results in LEAP and try to answer the following questions:
1. In what year do refineries and coal plants reach their maximum capacity?

2. Assuming that additional requirements are covered through imports, what

is the projection of the total imports of petroleum products in 2050 (in
millions of tonnes of oil equivalent)?

49
4 Cost-Benefit Analysis
In this exercise you are going to enter data to describe the costs of various demand and supply-
side technologies. You are then going to use LEAP to do an integrated cost-benefit analysis of
various policy scenarios.

Make sure you start with a data set that has all of the data entry completed through Exercise 3.

4.1 Cost-Benefit Analysis in LEAP: A Brief Introduction

LEAP performs cost-benefit calculations from a

societal perspective by comparing the costs of any two Demand
policy scenarios. LEAP can include all of the (costs of saved energy,
device costs, other non-fuel
following cost elements: costs)

• Demand costs, capital and operating and

maintenance costs expressed as total costs, Transformation
costs per activity, or costs of saving energy (Capital and O&M costs)
relative to some scenario,
• Transformation capital costs,
Primary Resource Costs
• Transformation fixed and variable operating
or
and maintenance costs, Delivered Fuel Costs
• Costs of indigenous resources,
• Costs of imported fuels,
• Benefits of exported fuels,
• Externality costs from emissions of pollutants, Environmental
Externality Costs
• Other miscellaneous user-defined costs such as
the costs of administering an efficiency
program.

To set up a costing analysis in LEAP it is first necessary to draw a consistent boundary around
your system, so that LEAP will not double-count costs and benefits. For example, if you count
the costs of fuels used to generate electricity you should not also count the cost of the electricity
in an overall cost-benefit calculation.

If you have not already done so, switch on costing by going to the Scope & Scale tab of the
Settings screen and enable Costs. Now go to the Costing tab and select the boundary that will
be drawn around the system for the purposes of costing. For this exercise you should select
Complete Energy System as the boundary, meaning that fuel costs are accounted for only when
they are imported or exported or when indigenously produced fuels are extracted as primary
resources. Set the Discount Rate to 5%.

You will now start by constructing a series of policy scenarios that will be analyzed. Next you
will enter the cost data relevant for these scenarios including Demand, Transformation and
Resource costs. Finally, you will examine some costing results including an overall cost-benefit
comparison of the various scenarios.

50
4.2 Creating Policy Scenarios
Go to the Scenarios screen ( ) and create the following five scenarios:

• Efficient Lighting
• Efficient Refrigerators
• CNG Buses
• Natural Gas + Renewables
• Industrial Efficiency

Hint: You can delete the DSM

scenario that you created in
Exercise 1.6

The Scenarios screen should look

like the one shown right. Make
sure each of the new policy
scenarios is created beneath the
Baseline scenario. In this way the
scenarios will inherit the expressions already entered for the Baseline scenario.

Finally, create a “Mitigation” scenario under the Baseline scenario that is a combination of the
five policy scenarios listed above. Use the Inheritance tab to set that this scenario also inherits
its expressions from these five policy scenarios.

4.3 Entering Costing Data

Next you will enter the data that will be used to evaluate how these scenarios differ from the
Baseline scenario.

In general, the unit costs of different technologies are the same for different scenarios, but the
scenarios will differ in terms of how much of each technology is implemented or how much of
each fuel is consumed. Thus, you first need to enter cost data in the Current Accounts scenario.
After that you will enter data describing the penetration of the technology in the different policy
scenarios.

You will start by specifying cost data for demand-side options. In general, you need to enter
three types of data describing:

• Technology Penetration: how many of the new (efficient) types of devices will be
installed in each policy scenario?

• Technology Performance: how efficient are the new devices?

• Technology Cost: how much do the new devices cost? You may either specify the total
costs of competing devices used in the Baseline and policy scenarios or you can simply
51
 enter the incremental cost of the new devices introduced in the policy scenarios relative
to the costs of the device used in the Baseline scenario.

4.3.1 Efficient Lighting Scenario

Hint: Before entering data, create a new technology branch under the urban
lighting category folder for your new efficient technology.

• Technology Penetration: A program to install efficient lighting systems could reduce

electricity consumed in urban households, using compact fluorescent (CFL) and other
technologies. Assume that the program starts in 2022 and can reach 40% of all
households by 2027 and 75% by 2050. Enter this data in the Efficient Lighting scenario
for the Activity Level variable.

• Technology Performance: Efficient lighting can be assumed to consume only 30% of

the electricity used by conventional lighting in urban households. Enter this data in the
Current Accounts scenario for the Final Energy Intensity variable.

• Technology Cost: Standard light bulbs cost 1$ each but have a lifetime of only one
year. Efficient light bulbs cost $6 each but are assumed to last for 3 years. Each
household is assumed to have 5 working lights. Enter this data in the Current Accounts
scenario for the Demand Cost variable. You will be entering data per household so
make sure you first select the “Activity Cost” method. You will also need to use the
AnnualizedCost function to specify the annualized cost of both the existing and the
efficient technology per household per year. For example, the annualized cost per
household for efficient light bulbs would be written as:

AnnualizedCost(6*5, 3)

This uses a standard mortgage formula to annualize the cost per household (5
bulbs at $6 per bulb) over the 3-year life of the bulb. Write a similar formula for
standard/existing light bulbs.

Hint: The Function Wizard (Ctrl+F) is helpful when entering arguments into
functions such as AnnualizedCost.

4.3.2 Efficient Refrigerators Scenario

• Technology Penetration: Government is considering introducing a new efficiency
standard for refrigerators. This would start in 2024. By 2035 all urban refrigerators in
the country (not rural) can be assumed to meet the new standard.

• Technology Performance: The standard would require that manufacturers produce

refrigerators with an average energy intensity of 380 kWh/year.

• Technology Cost: The cost of improving refrigerator efficiency to 380kWh is

approximately $100 US per fridge. Both current and efficient fridges have a lifetime of
about 10 years. In this example you only have data describing the incremental cost of
the new efficient device. Thus, when entering data for the Demand Cost variable in the
52
 Current Accounts scenario, you will need to specify a cost of zero for the existing
refrigerator and then annualize the $100 incremental cost over the 10-year lifetime of
the efficient refrigerator. It is perhaps worth noting that to do a cost-benefit analysis you
do NOT need to specify all of the costs of a scenario. You need only specify how one
scenario’s costs differ from another’s.

4.3.3 Industrial Energy Efficiency Scenario

In the “Other Industrial” sector of Freedonia energy is used in a wide variety of different
processes. An energy audit of selected industries has estimated that energy consumption can be
reduced through a variety of measures at an average cost of about 5 cents per kWh saved (for
both electricity and oil). These measures have the potential to save up to 30% of the energy
consumed in the “Other Industry” sector by 2050.

Unlike in the previous two examples, for this type of analysis the cost information is not
available in a form that allows you to count up the number of new devices that will be installed.
Instead, you will have to specify the costs by entering the cost per unit of saved energy.

In Current Accounts, select the Demand Cost variable for the Electricity and Fuel Oil branches
under the “Other Industry” branch. Now select the “Cost of Saved Energy” method. When you
select this method a dialog box will appear. In it choose units of U.S. dollars per Kilowatt-Hour
saved versus the Baseline scenario. The dialog should look like the one shown here.

Once you have set the units,

click OK and then enter the data
of $0.05/kWh saved. Repeat this
for each fuel.

Now select the Industrial

Efficiency scenario and specify the energy savings that can be expected. One easy way to do
this is to select the Final Energy Intensity variable (specified at the “Other Industry” branch)
and then enter the following formula which tells LEAP that the energy intensity will be 30%
less than in the Baseline scenario by 2050:

BaselineValue * Interp(2020, 1, 2050, 0.7)

4.3.4 CNG Buses Scenario

Switching buses from diesel to CNG is seen as a good option both for improving air quality in
densely populated and polluted cities as well as being a good way of mitigating CO2 emissions.

• Technology Penetration: CNG buses could start to be introduced in 2022. By 2027

they could meet 7% of total bus passenger-kms, and by 2050 this could reach 70%.

• Technology Performance: Natural gas powered CNG buses use 0.29 MJ/passenger-
km: slightly less than the final energy intensity of diesel buses in the base year.

• Technology Cost: CNG buses cost US$0.1 per passenger-km more than existing buses
but these costs are annualized over the 15-year lifetime of the buses.
53
4.3.5 Transformation Costs

Wind and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants will all be included in the last mitigation
scenario. Before entering costing data, you must create new branches for both technologies and
specify their performance characteristics. Use the table below to set this up in Current Accounts.

Performance Characteristics for Future Electric Generation Facilities

New Wind New NGCC
Feedstock Fuel Wind Natural Gas
Dispatch Rule MeritOrder MeritOrder
Merit Order 1 1
First Simulation Year FirstScenarioYear FirstScenarioYear
Process Efficiency [%] 100 55
Maximum Availability [%] 35 80
Capacity Credit [%]1 30 100
Historical Production [GWh] 0 0
Exogenous Capacity [MW] 0 0
Lifetime [years] 30 30

1
The Capacity Credit variable takes into account the portion of capacity that is fixed due to the intermittency of
renewable technologies. This means that all technologies other than wind will have a capacity credit of 100%.

Additionally, you can assume that the wind resource is unlimited. Go to the "Resources" branch
and enter Unlimited as the annual maximum production for wind.

Each of your demand side policy options will have a variety of impacts on the size and operation
of the Transformation sectors. Therefore, unlike for the demand-side options where you only
needed to enter cost data to describe the new options you were studying, for Transformation
you need to specify costs for all of the various power plants and fuels that may be affected.

Start by specifying the capital costs and the fixed and variable operating and maintenance costs
of the various electric generation power plants in your system. Use the following table for the
data you need in LEAP.

54
Costs for Existing and Future Electric Facilities
Capital Fixed O&M Variable O&M Interest Rate
($/kW) ($/kW) ($/MWh) (%)
Existing Plants
Existing Coal Steam 1000 40 3.0 5
Existing Hydro 2000 0 1.0 5
Existing Oil Combustion 400 10 0.7 5
Turbine
New Plants
New Coal Steam 1000 40 3.0 5
New Oil Combustion Turbine 400 10 0.7 5
New NGCC 500 10 0.5 5
New Wind 800 25 0.0 5

Important: these costs do NOT include fuel costs. You will deal with fuel costs below when you
specify resource cost data.

4.3.6 Natural Gas and Renewables Scenario

In the Baseline scenario, Coal Steam and Oil Combustion turbines are assumed to be the main
types of power plants to be built in the future. Recall that these data were specified for the
Endogenous Capacity variable (located under the Electric Generation module’s list of
processes).

In this policy scenario you will instead examine the impact of building a different mix of power
plants in the future. This scenario will analyze the impact of building a mix of natural gas
combined cycle and wind power plants for our base load plus some oil combustion turbines to
meet our peak load requirements.

Select the Natural Gas + Renewables scenario, and in the Endogenous Capacity screen,
replace the Baseline scenario data with the following:

Capacity Addition Sizes in the Natural Gas and Renewables Scenario

Process Addition Order Addition Size (MW)
New NGCC 1 400
New Oil Combustion Turbine 2 200
New Wind 3 200

Hint: Make sure you enter these technologies directly into the Mitigation scenario as
well. You do not have to add the addition size (this value will be inherited), but you do
need to create the structure with the correct Addition Order as above.

55
4.3.7 Resource Costs
Under the Resources section of the tree, you will specify the unit costs for indigenously
produced and imported primary resources and secondary fuels. Use the following information
to enter these costs.

Primary Resources (Indigenous production and imports):

• Coal - $20/tonne in 2020, rising to $30/tonne in 2050
• Natural gas - $0.1/m3 in 2020, rising to $0.2/m3 in 2050
• Crude Oil - $30/tonne in 2020, rising to $50/tonne in 2050

Secondary Resources (Indigenous production and imports):

• Diesel, Gasoline, LPG, Kerosene, Residual Fuel Oil, Avgas and Lubricants -
$300/tonne in 2020, rising to $400/tonne in 2050
• Electricity is not priced here since you are modeling electricity costs instead on
the basis of input fuel and power plant costs.

Enter this base year cost data in Current Accounts, since all of the scenarios assume the same
unit costs. Cost projections need only be entered once, under the Baseline scenario.

Make sure that the Fuel Cost variable for each of the feedstock fuels associated with each
Electricity Generation process refers to the Production Cost variables in the Resources
branches. For example, the Fuel Cost variable for the “New Oil Combustion Turbine”
feedstock fuel should be the following expression:

Resources\Secondary\Residual Fuel Oil:Production Cost[USD/Tonne]

The screenshot below illustrates this:

Hint: You can add this type of expression by pressing Ctrl-B and using the
Branch/Variable selection wizard.

56
4.3.8 Environmental Loadings
To accurately calculate the cost of avoided emissions in your scenarios, you must ensure that
appropriate emission factors have been assigned wherever a fuel is combusted in LEAP.

As you did in section 1.5, add emission factors to all branches by right-clicking on the tree, and
selecting Add IPCC Tier 1 Factors to All Branches, checking each branch for which you want
to add emission factors. In this exercise, we focus only on combustion-related emissions –
therefore, add emission factors only to Demand branches and to the Electricity Generation
module. You should not add any emission factors in the Transmission and Distribution,
Charcoal Production, Oil Refining or Coal Mining modules.

4.4 Cost-Benefit Results Cumulative Costs and Benefits of

In the Scenarios screen you can click the check Mitigation Scenario, 2020-2050
Billion 2020 US Dollars. Discounted at 5.0% to year
boxes on the tree to indicate which scenarios 2020, Compared with the Baseline Scenario
should be calculated. To keep the results
reasonably simple at first you may want to
check only the Baseline and Mitigation
scenarios.

In the Cost-Benefit view you can

display the Net Present Value (NPV)
of the Mitigation scenario relative to
another selected scenario (in this case the
Baseline scenario). The NPV is the sum of all
discounted costs and benefits in one scenario
minus another (summing across all years of the
study).

You should see results similar to those shown

here. Notice that these indicate that on the
demand side the Mitigation scenario costs
more than the Baseline scenario (since here
you are investing into energy efficiency
measures) but that this is somewhat offset by
savings in the Transformation module and in
avoided fuel requirements due to the energy
saved on the demand side. The overall NPV of
$1.05 billion is how much more the Mitigation
scenario costs versus the Baseline scenario.
The cost of avoided GHG emissions (2.24
$/tonne CO2e) is given by dividing the NPV by
the tonnes of CO2e avoided.

57
 You may also want to look at cost results graphically. You can do this in the Results
View. Select the top branch in the tree and show the result Costs: Social Costs. In the
chart legend, show All Cost Categories. Often it is most useful to view costs in terms
of differences versus the Baseline scenario. For example, try to display the following chart that
shows the incremental cumulative discounted costs in each year of the Mitigation scenario
versus the Baseline scenario.

Cumulative Discounted Costs: Mitigation vs. Baseline Scenario

(discounted to 2020 at 5% per year)

Notice how the Mitigation scenario is more expensive than the Baseline scenario in terms of
demand-side costs and in terms of imported fuels (these items appear above the X-axis), but
this is somewhat offset by savings in transformation capital costs, fuel production and operating
and maintenance (O&M) costs (these items appear as negative values below the X-axis).

Tip: to see a version of Freedonia matching the results shown here, first open the standard
Freedonia area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version 4.4.0.

58
Explore the results for the other scenarios in LEAP and try to answer the
following questions:
1. Are there any individual scenarios that result in lower costs compared to
the Baseline?

2. If analyzed individually, which measure has the highest potential for

reducing GHG emissions?

3. If analyzed individually, which scenario has the lowest cost of avoided

GHG emissions? And the highest? How do you interpret a negative and a
positive cost?

59
5 Including Emissions from Non-Energy Sources
LEAP is primarily a tool for energy sector planning and for conducting emissions assessments
from the energy sector. However, it also allows you to include total emissions of pollutants
from outside the energy sector, so that your model can cover the complete inventory of a
country’s emissions all from within the LEAP interface. Following Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) GHG inventory guidelines 3, these “non-energy” sources include:

• Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU),

• Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU),
• Waste

Often, historical emissions of pollutants from these non-energy sectors would be determined
outside of LEAP using special software. Projections of future emissions can also be estimated
in the same way and incorporated into LEAP’s scenarios. In either case, once you choose to
include non-energy emission data within LEAP, you may then use all of its basic modeling and
mathematical functions to perform simple calculations or make scenario projections for the
non-energy sector from within LEAP itself.

In this exercise, you will expand your model of Freedonia to include total emissions of methane
and nitrous oxide from manure management, a subcategory of AFOLU. You will then also
include hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions arising from refrigeration and air conditioning
activities, a subcategory of IPPU. Finally, you will create a new scenario to show how biogas
electricity from an agricultural waste digester can be modeled in LEAP, which affects emissions
from both the energy sector (arising from the power sector) as well as the non-energy sector
(arising from agriculture).

5.1 Current Accounts

Begin by enabling both
the Non-Energy Sector
Effect Loadings and
Complex Effects options from
within Settings. You will then
see a new category branch called
“Non Energy” at the bottom of
the tree. For this exercise, both
of the options are needed
because LEAP classifies HFCs
as complex effects, which are
enabled separately.

3
IPCC 2006, 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Prepared by the National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, Eggleston H.S., Buendia L., Miwa K., Ngara T. and Tanabe K. (eds).
Published: IGES, Japan.
60
Within the Non-Energy category, you
may decide on any branch structure that
suits your needs. For clarity, it is
recommended that you use the same
category names that are outlined in IPCC
inventory guidelines. Use the to re-
create the branch structure shown below,
choosing Category in the screen that
appears.

2 Industrial Processes and Product Use

2.F Product Uses as Substitutes for Ozone
Depleting Substances (ODS)
2.F.1 Refrigeration and Air Conditioning
3 Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land
Uses
3.A Livestock
3.A.2 Manure Management

The relevant IPCC Inventory categories are shown to the right of the tree structure to emphasize
their compatibility. To keep this exercise brief, we will include only emissions from IPCC
Inventory categories 2.F.1 and 3.A.2.

5.1.1 HFCs from Refrigeration and Air Conditioning

Freedonia’s historical emissions of HFCs from category 2.F.1 are contained in an
accompanying Microsoft Excel document titled “HFC_Emissions.xlsx”, which can be found
under the LEAP Areas\Freedonia folder in your computer. Under the “Refrigeration and Air
Conditioning” branch in the tree, use the to add eight branches (choosing Effect in the screen
that appears), each representing the emission of a different HFC compound found in the
accompanying workbook.

Hint: When adding these branches, if you first select the effect from the list menu
then LEAP will automatically assign a name to the branch based on the name
of the effect.

Regular audits of HFC emissions from refrigerators and air conditioners in Freedonia mean that
annual inventories for these pollutants are available all the way back to the year 2010.
Sometimes it is useful to include large amounts of historical data within LEAP, for as many
years as are available. So, we will use this opportunity to learn how to input a time series of
data from Excel quickly and easily into LEAP. To do this, follow the steps below.

1. Copy source data from Excel. Viewing the “HFC_Emissions.xlsx” document,

select the whole range of cells containing historical emissions of HFC-23
(fluoroform). Copy the range to the clipboard, either right-clicking and selecting
“Copy” or using Ctrl-C.

61
 2. Paste data into LEAP.
Return to LEAP and place
your mouse cursor in the
Non-Energy Effect
Loading variable for the
HFC-23 branch and press
Ctrl-V to paste the data.
You will see the screen
shown right.

LEAP will recognize that

your clipboard contains
information from an Excel
range and will guess that the numbers in this range contain time-series data. This
screen helps you to paste these data as arguments into a LEAP function. Choose
LEAP’s Interp function in the first box and change the First Year to 2010 since your
data begins in the year 2010. Since your historical data are separated by one year,
leave the Interval option unchanged.

3. Finalize. Click OK, and LEAP will write the following function into the variable:

Interp(2010, 14.3, 2011, 15.4, 2012, 15.9, 2013, 16.9, 2014, 18.2, 2015, 19, 2016,
19.7, 2017, 21, 2018, 21.6, 2019, 22.8, 2020, 23.9)

Repeat this process for all other HFC compounds.

Note: Values for years prior to the base year do not appear in any of LEAP’s charts.
However, they may still be included in expressions, and conveniently remain inside
the model should you decide to change the base year to an earlier year.

5.1.2 Methane and Nitrous Oxide from Manure Management

Under “Manure Management”, use the again to add two branches representing emissions of
methane and nitrous oxide found under category 3.A.2. In 2020, Freedonia’s 65 million
livestock consisted mainly of poultry, but also of a mixture of cattle, swine and other animals.
Farms employed a number of different manure management practices. On average, manure
from these animals emitted 0.07 kg of CH4 and 0.1 kg of N2O per year for every head of
livestock 4.

In this exercise, the annual emissions of each GHG can then be calculated by multiplying the
number of livestock by the average emission factor. If we wish to perform this multiplication
in LEAP, we can create a special user-defined variable to hold our assumption for the total
number of livestock. To do this, follow the steps below. There are many different configuration
options while setting up user-defined variables. Unless described specifically in the steps below,
you may ignore these many additional options by leaving them at their default settings.

4
The annual emissions of methane and nitrous oxide vary widely among different types of livestock. Furthermore,
the way that their manure is managed (whether in an anaerobic lagoon, dry lot, pasture, etc.), the climate, and other
factors will affect the annual production of these gases. To keep this exercise simple, we provide only an average
emission factor for manure from all animals.
62
 1. Open the User Variables Manager.
From the main menu, select Analysis:
Variables: Add User Variable .

2. Configure basic information for your

variable. Give your variable a name,
such as “Livestock”. In the Basic Info
tab, type a unit name in the Scale/Units
box, and enter a short description of the
variable in the Notes section. An
example screen is shown to the right.

3. Configure the visibility for your

variable. In the Visibility tab, use the Branch Visibility section to control where the
variable appears in the tree. Configure your screen so that the variable appears for
branches of type Non-Energy Sector Categories, at the branch called “Non
Energy\Agriculture Forestry and Other Land Use\Livestock” and no branches beneath
it. When finished, your screen should look like the following:

Click OK, and then close the User Variables Manager window.

You should now see your new Livestock variable when you click on the Non
Energy\Agriculture Forestry and Other Land Use\Livestock branch. Use it to include the
number of livestock in Freedonia for the base year.

Finally, write an expression into each of the Methane and Nitrous Oxide Effect branches to
calculate total annual emissions in Current Accounts.

Hint: Multiply the average emission factor provided earlier by the number of
livestock, creating a reference to the Livestock variable as needed. For example,
the Non Energy Effect Loading variable for methane should contain the
following expression:
63
 0.07 * Non Energy\Agriculture Forestry and Other Land Use\Livestock:
Livestock[head]

5.2 Baseline Scenario

In the Baseline scenario, we will include two simple assumptions that relate changes in non-
energy emissions to Key Assumptions which we have already created.

Refrigeration and air conditioning activities are expected to increase with rising incomes, and
with them, emissions of HFCs. For all HFC emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning,
enter the expression GrowthAs(Key\Income) into the Non Energy Effect Loading variable.

If Freedonian’s diets do not change, then the number of livestock head can be expected to
increase at the same rate as the national population. Using the Livestock variable, enter a similar
expression to that above, which increases the number of livestock at the same rate as population.

64
5.2.1 Viewing Results
Switch to the Results View and examine the result Environment: 100-Year GWP:
Direct (At Point of Emissions). Compare your results to those shown below.

One Hundred Year Global Warming Potential, Baseline Scenario, all greenhouse gases

One Hundred Year Global Warming Potential, Baseline Scenario, Non-Energy

Emissions Only

Tip: to see a version of Freedonia matching the results shown here, first open the standard
Freedonia area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version 5.2.1.
65
5.3 Policy Scenario: Digesting Animal Wastes for Power Generation
To develop a source of natural fertilizer and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the
government of Freedonia is evaluating a small power plant project which consumes methane-
rich biogas to produce electricity.

First, add a new process into the Electricity Generation module, called “Animal Waste
Digestion”. The technical and cost parameters for this technology are given in the table below
(leave all other parameters at their default values). Be sure to enter these under Current
Accounts.

Technical Parameters
Feedstock Fuel Biogas
Dispatch Rule FullCapacity
Process Efficiency [%] 30
Maximum Availability [%] 85
Cost Parameters
Capital Cost ($/kW) 5800
Variable O&M Cost ($/MWh) 5
Fixed O&M Cost ($/kW) 150

You will also need to include a set of emission factors for the combustion of biogas in the
generator. Using the to add Effect branches beneath the process’ fuel, add each one of the
pollutants from the table below.

Emission Factor
Pollutant
(kg/TJ)
Carbon Dioxide Biogenic 54600
Carbon Monoxide 2.5
Methane 1
Non-Methane Volatile
5.6
Organic Compounds
Nitrogen Oxides 20
Nitrous Oxide 0.1
Sulfur Dioxide 4

Visit Scenarios ( ) to create a new scenario which inherits from the Baseline scenario, called
“Biogas Digestion”. This scenario is characterized by two changes:

• The utility in Freedonia will construct a 30 MW pilot project biogas generator, which is
expected to be completed in 2031.
• For each gigajoule of energy that the biogas generator consumes, 1.14 kg of
methane and 1.39 kg of nitrous oxide emissions are avoided annually from
manure management practices.

66
 Hint: In your new scenario, adjust the baseline non-energy emissions by
subtracting the avoided amount, calculated using the following LEAP
expression 5:

BaselineValue – (Transformation\Electricity
Generation\Processes\Biogas:Inputs[GJ] * 1.14)

5.3.1 Viewing Results

If you have set up your model correctly, you should be able to use LEAP’s Results
View to show emissions from two different parts of your tree: the Electricity
Generation sector and the Manure Management category. Reductions in GHG
emissions arise from both the energy (since biogas is used to displace other forms of fossil fuel
generation) and non-energy sectors (since producing and combusting the biogas means that it
is not vented to the air and improves manure management practices).

One Hundred Year Global Warming Potential, Avoided Emissions of Biogas

Digestion vs. Baseline Scenario

Note: Avoided emissions in 2050 = 1.42 Million Tonnes CO2-equivalent.

To get the same chart as above, make sure you are positioned at the top-level branch in the tree.
This shows the total avoided emissions compared to the Baseline scenario for all sectors in

5
Under some circumstances, LEAP will allow you to refer to “Result”-type variables (variables which are
calculated when you switch to the Results View) in your expressions. Use the “Result”-type variable called Inputs
in your calculation, which returns the energy inputs to a transformation process. When using “Result”-type
variables, always check that LEAP is using the variable in the way that you expect.
67
Freedonia. As shown below, you can also explore the avoided emissions per pollutant,
specifically in the livestock sector.

One Hundred Year Global Warming Potential, Avoided Emissions of Biogas

Digestion vs. Baseline Scenario in the Livestock Sector.

Tip: to see a version of Freedonia matching the results shown here, first open the standard
Freedonia area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version 5.3.1.

Explore additional results in LEAP and try to answer the following questions:
1. Which sectors give rise to the emissions abatement found under the Animal
Waste Digestion scenario?

2. What is the abatement of each pollutant in 2040 and 2050, in thousand

metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent?

3. In what other cases do you think it might be useful to make use of user-
defined variables?

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6 A Transportation Study
In this exercise you will use LEAP’s transportation analysis features to construct a range of
scenarios that examine different policies for passenger cars and sport utility vehicles (SUVs).
SUVs are the kind of large energy-intensive vehicles, the popularity of which is causing rapidly
growing fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, especially in the USA.

You will first use LEAP to construct a Current Accounts inventory of fuel use and selected
emissions from these vehicles. Next, you will create a Baseline scenario that projects fuel use
and emissions into the future under the assumption of no new policies to reduce fuel use and
emissions. Finally, you will create and compare a range of scenarios that examine measures
designed to reduce fuel use and emissions.

As with other exercises, you will start by creating a new area and then edit the Settings of the
study.

Select menu option Area: New Area or click on the New button on the main toolbar. Call
the new area “Transportia” (or any other name you like). Check the radio button to create the
area from default data then click OK.

6.1 Settings and Structure

Go to the Scope & Scale tab on the Settings screen and make sure only the Demand
and Energy Effects boxes are checked. This study will not make use of
Transformation, Costs or Resource data.

• On the Years tab, enter 2020 as the Base Year, 2021 as the First Scenario Year, 2040 as
the End Year, and 23 as the Number of Vintage Years.
• On the Calculations tab, make sure the Top-down sales and stock data box is checked.
• All other options can be left with their default values.

You are now ready to enter your Tree structure. First, you will create two major categories
under Demand, one for “Cars” and one for “Sport Utility Vehicles” (SUVs). To add each of
these click on the Add button ( ) above the tree and create each as a category branch ( ).

Under each category create subcategories for conventional “Internal Combustion Engine”
(ICE) vehicles, for “Hybrid” vehicles, and for “Electric” vehicles (see box in next page).

Next, you will add the technologies under each subcategory. Under each of the conventional
Internal Combustion Engine categories you will consider two alternative technologies,
“Gasoline” and “Diesel”. Under each of the hybrid categories you will only consider gasoline
vehicles, and under the electric categories, you will create a technology for electric vehicles.

When adding these technologies, make sure you create them as Transport Technology (Stock
Turnover Method) branches ( ), and select the correct fuel for each as shown below.

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 Hybrid-Electric and Electric Vehicles

Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) and electric

vehicles (EVs) both offer alternatives to
traditional gasoline-powered vehicles.

HEVs combine a small internal combustion

engine with an electric motor and battery to
reduce fuel consumption and tailpipe
emissions. Unlike EVs, hybrids do not require
external charging, as the battery is charged
through “regenerative braking”, a process in
which energy lost during braking is captured
Your completed tree structure should look something and returned to the battery. This makes hybrids
like this: more convenient for those who do not have
easy access to charging infrastructure. Hybrids
typically have greater range than EVs, as they
can rely on gasoline when the battery is
depleted. They offer improved fuel efficiency
compared to traditional ICEs, but do not
achieve the zero emissions of EVs.

EVs are powered entirely by electricity, using a

large battery pack to store energy that drives
an electric motor, resulting in zero tailpipe
emissions. Advances in battery technology are
increasing the range of EVs, making them
more practical for long-distance travel in places
where charging infrastructure is available.
While EVs often have a higher upfront cost, this
is usually offset by savings on fuel and
maintenance.

6.2 Current Accounts Data

You are now ready to enter the following base year (Current Accounts) data for your analysis:

• There were 6 million cars and 4 million SUVs on the road in the base year (2020), not
including new cars sold in that year. Enter this data in the Stock variable at the Demand
branch.

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• The existing stock of cars and SUVs is made up of vehicles of
different ages (vintages). The percent share of each of these vintages
is given in the table on the right.
Hint: Create a new Lifecycle Profile named “Existing Car
Stocks” to represent the distribution of vintages within the base
year stock. The Lifecycle Profiles screen is accessed under the
General menu. First add a profile and select the “Data Points”
type, then enter the data shown on the right. The figure below
shows how this information will look when entered into the
lifecycle profile screen.
Important: Note that LEAP requires that all stock vintage profiles
have zero vehicles of age zero years. This is because the data you
enter for base year stocks should not include those new vehicles
sold in the base year. These vehicles are specified using the Sales
variable.
• Back in Analysis View, go to the Stock share tab for each technology
branch and in the Stock Vintage Profile column, select the “Existing
Car Stocks” profile.

• In the base year, 0.8 million cars and 0.5 million SUVs were sold. Enter this data in the
Sales variable at the Demand branch. As these and other vehicles age, they will
gradually be retired from the vehicle stock (taken off the road). A survival profile
describing this retirement of vehicles can be represented by an exponential function of
the following type:

St = St −1 ⋅ e −0.02t
where 𝑆𝑆𝑡𝑡 is the fraction of surviving vehicles of age 𝑡𝑡 (in years).

71
 Hint: Create another Lifecycle Profile named “Private Car Survival”
to represent the percent survival of vehicles as they get older. First add
a profile then select “Exponential” as the type of curve and set the
constant parameter to –0.02. Back in Analysis View, go to the Sales
share tab for each technology branch and in the Survival Profile column,
select the “Private Car Survival” profile.

• Among internal combustion engine cars and SUVs, 2% of sales and 2% of the base year
stock is diesel vehicles. The remainder was gasoline vehicles.
• 3% of the base year stock of cars is Hybrid vehicles, and 1% of the stock is Electric.
• 10% of the cars sold in the base year were Hybrids, and 5% were Electric.
• No hybrid nor electric SUVs are currently available. Stock share and Sales share
variables for hybrid and electric SUVs categories should be set to 0 in Current Accounts.
Hint: For the technologies under hybrid and electric cars and SUVs, set
the Sales Share and Stock Share variables to Remainder(100).
• All new cars and new SUVs are assumed to be driven 15,000 miles in their first year on
the road. As the age of vehicles increases, they are driven less. This decrease in driving
can be represented by an exponential function, similar to the one above, with the
constant parameter –0.002. Create a new Lifecycle Profile called “Vehicle Distance”
and link it to the Degradation Profile column under the Mileage variable for each
technology.
• The base year fuel economy of the different types of vehicles is shown in the following
table. Fuel economy is assumed to stay constant as a vehicle’s age increases.

Gasoline ICE (MPG Diesel ICE (MPG Gasoline Hybrid (MPG Electric
Gasoline US eq.) Gasoline US eq.) Gasoline US eq.) (kWh/100km)
Cars 25 28 40 16
SUVs 15 17 23 22

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6.3 Baseline Scenario
You are now ready to create a Baseline scenario (BAS) that projects fuel use into the future
under the assumption of no new policies to reduce fuel use and emissions.

Go to the Scenarios screen ( ) and click the Add button ( ) to add a new a new scenario
named Baseline (BAS). Then enter the following data:

• Sales of vehicles are expected to double, reaching 2 million vehicles/year in 2040.

However, all this growth is expected within the SUV market segment. Annual car sales
remain at 0.8 million/year in 2040, while annual SUV sales more than double, reaching
1.2 million in 2040.
• Hybrid and electric market penetration for cars remains constant in the Baseline
scenario. No hybrid nor electric SUVs are introduced.
• In the absence of new standards, the fuel economy of all vehicles remains unchanged in
the future.

6.4 Baseline Results

You are now ready to view Baseline results for sales, stocks, mileage and fuel use.
Check your results against each of the following categories for the years 2020, 2030,
and 2040.

Device Sales (thousands of vehicles) Device Stocks (thousands of vehicles)

73
 Vehicle Mileage (billion vehicle-miles) Energy Demand (million gallons gasoline eq.)

Hint: if your results differ by more than a few percent from those shown above,
first check, and if necessary, debug, your Current Accounts data. First eliminate
the possibility of errors in your Current accounts data before trying to debug
future values.

Tip: to see a version of the Transport Exercise matching the results shown here, first open the
standard Transport Exercise area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version
6.4.

6.5 Emissions Factors

Next, you will enter environmental loadings data describing some of the pollution
loadings associated with the vehicles you are studying. To keep data entry to a
minimum, for this short exercise you will examine only four pollutants: the
greenhouse gas, Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and three pollutants contributing to local air pollution:
Carbon Monoxide (CO), Nitrogen Oxides (NOx), and Particulate Matter of size less than 10
microns (PM10).

CO2 emissions from vehicles are dependent only on the type of fuel used and the efficiency
(fuel economy) of the vehicle. Therefore, they can be specified in terms of emissions per unit
of energy consumed. The measurement units used are pounds of CO2 per MMBTU of fuel
consumed.

74
Local air pollutants are much more dependent on the type of control technology used in the
vehicle, and also tend to be regulated by the Government at certain levels. For this reason, these
emission factors tend to be specified per vehicle-mile traveled. The units used are grammes of
pollutant per vehicle-mile traveled. Because emissions of these pollutants depend critically on
the performance of the catalytic converter or other control technology used in the vehicle, they
can also be expected to increase per vehicle-mile quite substantially as vehicles get older. For
this reason, in addition to specifying the emission factors for new vehicles, you will also need
to specify degradation factors for each pollutant that specify how emissions increase as vehicles
get older.

The Government of Transportia is continually reviewing and improving its regulations for
vehicle emissions, based on recommendations from its Environmental Protection Agency.
Since 2010, the emissions standards for new vehicles have been tightened a number of times.
The following table specifies how average emission factors for each type of new vehicle have
evolved since 2010.

Car Pollutant Units 2010 2015 2024 New Standard?

Gasoline CO2 lbs/MMBTU 159.50
CO g/veh-mile 6.20 5.30 3.50 1.70
NOx g/veh-mile 0.44 0.35 0.04 0.03
PM10 g/veh-mile 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.05
Diesel CO2 lbs/MMBTU 161.00
CO g/veh-mile 1.05 0.54 0.20
NOx g/veh-mile 0.60 0.27 0.08
PM10 g/veh-mile 1.50 1.50 0.50 0.20

Data on emissions from hybrid vehicles is not yet available.

However, because they are regulated in the same way as
conventional internal combustion engine gasoline vehicles, they
are assumed to have the same emission factors as that type of
vehicle.

One set of standards is due to come into force for vehicles

manufactured in 2024. The Government is also considering
introducing a new set of emissions regulations, with the
proposed new emission factors, listed in the final column. This
proposed set of regulations has not yet been approved and thus,
the date when this will come into law and affect new vehicles
being manufactured has not yet been decided.

To enter the above data into LEAP you will first need to create
a series of Effect branches ( ) under each of the fuels ( )
below your technologies ( ). Use the Add button ( ) to add
CO2, CO, NOx and PM10 effects. Once complete, your tree
structure should appear as shown on the right. Note that no
Effect branches were added for vehicles using electricity.

It is important to set the correct units for each pollutant. For CO2,
set the Method to “Per unit energy consumed” and then select

75
units Pound per Million BTU. For the other pollutants select type “Per unit travel” and then
select units: Gramme per Vehicle-mile.

Since the above data represents emissions standards that came into force governing the
manufacture of new vehicles in a specific year, you will need to enter the data for 2010, 2015,
and 2024 using a step function. Since the year for the new standard has not yet been decided
you can specify that year using a Key Assumption named “New Reg Year”. Set the value of
this variable to 2060 so that the new standards will, in effect, not be used in any initial scenario
calculations.

So, for example, you might create an expression to represent CO emissions from gasoline
vehicles as follows:

Step(2010, 6.2, 2015, 5.3, 2024, 3.5, Key\New Reg Year, 1.7)

Hint: To avoid entering the above step function under every technology branch,
you may choose to create key assumptions for each set of emission factors and
link to them under each technology.

Finally, for the three local air pollutants you will also need to specify how the emission factors
increase over time, as each vintage of vehicles on the road gets older. To do this you will again
need to go to General: Lifecycle Profiles and create three named profiles to represent
degradation of CO, NOx and PM10. The degradation of these can each be represented by
exponential curve with the following constant parameters: 0.006 for CO, 0.008 for NOx, and
0.005 for PM10. Back in Analysis View, go to the New Device Environmental Loading tab
for each technology branch and in the final Degradation Profile column, select the appropriate
profiles.

Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) depend only on the amount of fuel burnt in the vehicle.
Therefore, a single constant emission factor can be used, and no degradation curve is required.
Hence, for CO2 emission factors leave the Degradation Profile set to constant.

6.6 Baseline Emissions

Projecting emissions into the future is simple for the Baseline, since this scenario
assumes no new policies to reduce emissions. Check your emissions results for the
years 2020, 2030, and 2040 against the following table.

Environmental Effects (Emissions) in Physical Units (thousand metric tonnes)

76
Tip: to see a version of the Transport Exercise matching the results shown here, first open the
standard Transport Exercise area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version
6.6.

6.7 Policy Scenarios

You are now ready to examine a series of policy scenarios. You will start by examining a range
of different measures individually, and then later combine them into different combinations of
integrated scenarios.

6.7.1 Improved Fuel Economy (IFE)

The first policy being considered by the Government is to introduce stricter fuel
economy standards for conventional (i.e. non-hybrid) internal combustion engine
gasoline and diesel vehicles. The proposed new standard will require new cars and
SUVs to increase their fuel economy by 5% in 2025, by 10% in 2030 and by 20% in 2035 (all
values relative to the base year fuel economy).

To model this policy, first go to the Scenarios screen ( ), and then create a new scenario below
the Baseline scenario called “Improved Economy”. To reduce data entry, you may want to
create a new Key Assumption to represent the above improvements. For example, you could
create a variable called “FE Target”, set its Current Accounts value to 1.0 and then in the
Improved Fuel Economy scenario, specify its future values using the following expression:

Step(2025, 1.05, 2030, 1.1, 2035, 1.2)

Next, go to the Fuel Economy tab for each appropriate vehicle type and enter the following
expression for the Improved Fuel Economy scenario:

BaselineValue * Key\FE Target

This will cause future fuel economy to be calculated as the product of the Baseline fuel economy
and the target fuel economy. Remember that you can drag and drop the Target Economy
variable from Key Assumptions.

6.7.2 Increased Market Penetration of Hybrid-Electric and Electric Vehicles

(EVS)
A second policy being considered is to increase the market penetration of hybrid-electric and
electric vehicles. This is likely to be done through a range of consumer and producer tax
incentives and subsidies. With these incentives in place, it is expected that by 2040, hybrids
will account for 30% of the car and SUV market penetration, while electric vehicles will capture
40%.

Create a new scenario called “Hybrids and EVs” and enter an Interp function to specify how
the future sales of cars and SUVs will be split between conventional ICEs, Hybrids, and Electric
vehicles.

Additionally, hybrid fuel economy is expected to improve as the technology matures. Hybrid
Gasoline cars reach a fuel economy of 60 MPG by 2040, while Hybrid SUVs reach 35 MPG.
77
Similarly, for electric vehicles, the fuel economies by 2040 reach 12 kWh/100 km for cars, and
16.5 kWh/100 km for SUVs.

6.7.3 Increased Market Penetration of Diesel Cars and SUVs (DSL)

Because of their higher efficiency and GHG benefits, the Government is also considering a
policy to increase the market penetration of diesel cars and SUVs. However, it is not clear
whether these benefits are justified given that diesel vehicles have higher emissions of local air
pollutants, especially particulates. It is expected that with various incentives diesels could
increase their market penetration to 30% of the market for conventional ICEs by 2040.

Create a new scenario called “Diesel” and enter an Interp function to specify how the future
sales of ICE cars and SUVs will be split between diesel and gasoline vehicles.

6.7.4 New Tailpipe Emissions Standards (TAIL)

As noted above in section 6.5, the Government is also considering introducing a new and more
stringent tailpipe emissions standard. The Government wants to see what the emissions
reductions benefits will be of introducing this new standard in 2030, both as a standalone policy
and also as part of a wider package of measures to reduce pollution and combat climate change.

Hint: Create a new scenario called “Tailpipe Standard” then simply edit the
value of the Key Assumption named “New Reg Year” that you created earlier
for this new scenario. This variable represents the date when the new tailpipe
emissions standard will be introduced. Change it to 2030.

6.7.5 Promotion of Cars over SUVs (CAR)

The Government is also considering a series of measures to discourage consumers from
purchasing large and fuel-inefficient SUVs. Using a series of policies such as fuel or carbon
taxes and motor vehicle insurance based on vehicle weight or fuel economy, it is expected that
annual SUV sales can be reduced to 700,000 vehicles by the year 2040, with car sales increasing
to 1,300,000 vehicles.

Create a new scenario called “Fewer SUVs” and enter Interp functions to specify the future
sales of cars and SUVs.

6.8 Results
You are now ready to view the results of your scenarios. Compare the results you get
to the charts on the following pages.

78
Energy Demand: Differences compared to Baseline Scenario

For this chart, results for the Tailpipe Emissions Standard scenario are the same as for the Baseline scenario.

Direct CO2 Emissions (100-Year GWP): Differences compared to Baseline

Scenario

For this chart, results for the Tailpipe Emissions Standard scenario are the same as for the Baseline scenario.

79
PM10 Emissions: Differences compared to Baseline Scenario

For this chart, results for the Improved Fuel Economy scenario are the same as for the Baseline scenario.

Notice that some scenarios result in environmental trade-offs. In particular, notice that increased
use of diesel vehicles leads to reductions in CO2 emissions but to significant increase in PM10.
You may also wish to check results for NOx.

You can try creating your own combinations of scenarios. Start by combing the following four
scenarios:

• Improved Fuel Economy

• Increased Market Penetration of Hybrid-Electric and Electric Vehicles
• New Tailpipe Emissions Standard.
• Promotion of Cars over SUVs.

Go to the Scenarios screen ( ) and create a new scenario named “Combined” that inherits
from the Baseline scenario. On the inheritance tab, click on the Add button ( ) to add each of
the above-named scenarios. You do not need to enter new data for this scenario, as it will
automatically inherit the data entry expressions used in each of the scenarios from which it
inherits.

Now compare these and other results for this new combined scenario to the individual policy
scenarios and to the Baseline scenario.

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Direct CO2 Emissions (100-Year GWP) by Scenario

PM10 Emissions by Scenario

81
Energy Demand in 2040 by Fuel and Scenario

Vehicle Stocks in 2040 by Type of Vehicle and Scenario

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Tip: to see a version of Transportia matching the results shown here, first open the standard
Transport Exercises area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version 6.8.

Explore additional results in LEAP and try to answer the following questions:
1. In the “Combined” scenario, what are the avoided emissions (compared
to the Baseline) in 2040 that resulted from lower consumption of
gasoline?

2. What additional measures could be implemented to further decrease the

emissions from the transport sector?

3. How do the mitigation measures in the transport sector affect the

emissions from other sectors upstream? What would you need to do in
order to capture them in the model?

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7 Least-Cost Electric Generation

In this simple exercise you will use LEAP’s optimization features to investigate a range of
different technologies for generating electricity. You will compare the costs of generating
electricity including the capital, operating and maintenance and fuel costs of those technologies
and you will perform sensitivity analyses to examine which options are the cheapest when the
externality costs of local air pollution are either included or excluded. You will then go on to
explore the implications of a cap on CO2 emissions – how it alters the set of technologies chosen
and how it affects the overall cost of the scenario.

This exercise will also show you how to import a year’s worth of hourly electrical load data
into LEAP as a way of describing how demands vary among seasons and times of the day.
Finally, the exercise will introduce energy storage modeling and optional constraints for
limiting the capacity of certain technologies in optimization.

Please note that this exercise is a highly simplified representation of an electric generating
system and the data values provided are not intended to be realistic. Please do not cite or use
the data shown in this exercise in any real study.

NB: this exercise requires Microsoft Excel as well as LEAP and NEMO.

7.1 Entering Electric Generation Data

Start by opening the LEAP area “Optimization Exercise”, by clicking Area: Open,
and then clicking Area: Revert to Version, selecting “Optimization Exercise Start”.
This data set is partially completed already. We recommend you immediately save
this area with a new name such as “Optimization Exercise [your name]”.

Under the Demand branches, a single branch specifies that the demand from electricity grows
from nothing in the base year (2020) to 200 thousand GWh in the end year (2030). This
information is entered in the Total Energy variable of a single Technology with Total Energy
( ) branch in the Current Accounts scenario. In this simple exercise the same energy demand
assumptions will be used in all scenarios.

Now look at the Transformation tree branches. You will see a single module describing
transmission and distribution losses. Here we have created a simple Transformation module
containing the simple assumption of 10% electrical losses. This value is assumed to stay the
same in all years and across all scenarios.

Your first data entry task is to create a new module that will be used to describe the various
possible electric generation technologies.

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Start by adding a new Transformation
module called “Electricity Generation”
and set its properties to include costs
and capacities. Efficiency data should
be set to be entered directly (as
percentage efficiency values). Leave
all other options unchecked. Make sure
the new module appears below the
“Transmission and Distribution”
module in the tree’s branch structure.
Once you have created the module you
can start to enter the basic data
describing its various technologies.
Enter all the following data for the
Current Accounts scenario.

At the Transformation\Electricity Generation\Output Fuels, make sure the module has

electricity as a single output fuel. Set the Shortfall Rule for electricity to
RequirementsRemainUnmet (this is required for optimization) and leave the other default
properties for the output fuel unchanged. No data should be entered for import and export
targets.

Next you can specify the set of electric generation technologies to be evaluated. Create each
one as a separate process within the Electricity Generation module and do this while editing the
Current Accounts scenario. The following table provides the data you will need to define these
processes.

Process NGCC Wind Coal Hydro

Feedstock Natural Gas Wind Coal Bituminous Hydro
Process Efficiency (%) 45 100 35 100
Maximum Availability (%) 85 47 90 60
Capacity Credit (%) 100 40 100 50
Capital Cost (Thousand $/MW of production capacity) 1900 2100 2200 9000
Fixed O&M (Thousand $/MW of production capacity) 10 20 40 30
Variable O&M ($/MWh of energy output) 3 4 3 5
Lifetime (yrs) 30 25 30 40
Fuel Costs $7/Million BTU n/a $100/Tonne n/a

Reminder: Make sure you select the correct scale and units!

Most of the above data in this table needs to be entered for the various variables defined for
each process. Feedstock fuel costs need to be specified within the Resource branches of the
tree. Enter the natural gas and coal fuel costs at both the Production Cost and Import Cost
variables (under the Resources\Primary branches). Ensure that these cost variables are correctly
referenced in the Fuel Cost variable for each power plant feedstock fuel, as you did in section
4.3.7.

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To ensure the energy balances are correctly calculated, make sure that you specify very large
reserves of natural gas and coal bituminous and very large availability of wind and hydro power.
In Current Accounts, enter Unlimited GJ as the Base Year Reserves for these fuels under the
Resources\Primary branches. Enter the same value for wind and hydro availability in the
Maximum Production variable.

In addition to the data in the above table, ensure that the Interest Rate variable under
Transformation\Electricity Generation\Processes is equal to the model’s discount rate of 5%.
Make sure the Exogenous Capacity variables are all set to zero and set the Dispatch Rule to
RunningCost.

In this simple exercise we are not trying to represent actual historical patterns of dispatch, and
thus we will not be using the Historical Production variable to tell LEAP how much of each
process to dispatch. Instead we will be using LEAP’s optimization calculations to calculate
process capacity values consistent with minimizing costs while meeting demands. Setting the
First Simulation Year to a date equal to or before the base year of the study tells LEAP to
ignore the Historical Production variable. To accomplish this, you may enter the expression
BaseYear into the First Simulation Year for all processes.

Before leaving the processes branches, make

sure you have specified a set of emission factors
for each process. Using the techniques you first
followed in Exercise 1.5, add IPCC Tier 1
emission factors for the coal and NGCC (natural
gas) power plants. Right-click each relevant
feedstock fuel branch (those marked with the
icon), and then select the Add multiple effects
option ( ). This will display the box shown on
the right. Select the appropriate emission factors
stored in the TED database.

Next, set the Planning Reserve Margin to 25%.

Enter this at the Electricity branch under the high-
level Load Shapes branch.

Finally, visit the Cost tab of Settings (shown below). Here you will need to set a few options
that will be used to calculate cost results. Make sure this screen has the following settings:

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 • The Cost-benefit calculation
boundary should be set to
“Complete Energy System”.
• Environmental externality
costs can initially be switched
off. Also, foreign exchange
costs are not used in this
exercise so that can also be
left off.
• Set the Discount rate to 5%.
• The Capital cost
annualization method should
be set to “Capital Recovery
Factor (Default)”. This
method is required when using optimization.

7.2 Creating Load Shapes by Importing Hourly Load Data

Next you will create a set of data that describes how the electric generation load varies among
different seasons and times of day. The variations in the electric load are important in
determining what mix of base load or peak load plants make should be built and operated.

Creating and using this load shape in LEAP is a four-step process.

1. Time Slices: First you will specify a set of time slices into which each year will be
divided. In this example we will divide each year into four seasons and each day will be
divided into 24 hours.

2. Hourly Data Spreadsheet: Second, you will select a set of predefined hourly data that
describes how the electric load varied across all 8760 hours of a single year. This hourly
data is predefined and stored in a separate Microsoft Excel spreadsheet provided to you.

3. Yearly Shape: Third, you will use LEAP’s Yearly Shapes screen to import the hourly
data contained in the spreadsheet and automatically map it to the time slices you have
created.

4. System Energy Load Shape: Finally, you will use this newly created load shape in your
LEAP data set by assigning it to the System Energy Load Shape variable in your
analysis.

Let’s follow each of those steps in detail.

1. Time Slices: First let’s create a detailed set of time slices. Go to the General: Time Slices
screen and click the Setup toolbar button ( ). Choose Detailed and then set up slices to
include four seasons and 24-hourly slices. In this exercise we will not use any
weekday/weekend slicing.

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 LEAP will now generate the detailed set of time slices shown to the right. Each slice will
include data describing its number of hours. You can now return to the main screen.

2. Hourly Spreadsheet Data: Next, open up a copy of Microsoft Excel and load the
spreadsheet Yearly Shape Data.xlsx found in the Optimization exercise area folder.

Notice that this spreadsheet Load Shape (kWh)

contains hourly data for all 8760 3,000,000

hours of a single year, from the

first hour of January 1st to the last 2,500,000

hour of December 31st. The

numbered hours are listed in the
2,000,000

“Hour” column (column A) from 1,500,000

1 to 8760 while the corresponding
electric demands are listed in the 1,000,000

“kWh” column (column B).

These values are plotted in the 500,000

“Load Shape” chart in the

0
spreadsheet (shown here). Notice - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

the large variations both among

seasons and between different Load Duration Curve (% of Peak)
times of the day and days of the 100

week. 90

80

In columns C, D and E these same 70

data have been reorganized by 60

sorting the values from high to 50
low and normalizing them in 40
percentage terms against the 30
annual peak value to produce a 20
standard load duration curve that 10
shows how demand varies from
-
the hour with the highest demand 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

to the hour with the lowest. This

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 load duration curve is also shown here. Notice that as a result of the sorting operation, the
load duration curve loses any information about seasons, days of the week or times of the
day.

3. Yearly Shape: You will now

import this hourly data into LEAP.
Keeping Excel open, go to the
General: Yearly Shapes screen and
select the toolbar option Import
> Import from Annual Shape (e.g.
Hourly). A dialog box will appear
as shown here. Set this up to import
values as an “Energy Load Shape
(% of annual energy)”, since this
type of load shape is required when
using optimization in LEAP. Choose the Excel range named “kWh” as the import range:
this range contains the kWh values in column B of the spreadsheet. Finally, remember to
enter a name for the new yearly shape. We suggest you name it “SystemShape”.

When you click OK, LEAP will import all of the hourly values in the spreadsheet and
automatically map these values to the time slices you specified in step 1 above. The result
will be a yearly shape that should look like the one shown below.

4. System Energy Load Shape: The final step in using this data requires that you assign this
newly created load shape to the System Load Shape variable. Exit the Yearly Shapes
screen and then in Analysis View locate the Load Shapes\Electricity branch. In Current
Accounts, enter the following expression for the System Load Shape variable:

YearlyShape(SystemShape)
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7.3 Simulation Scenarios to Explore Technology Characteristics
You are now ready to explore the
costs and emissions associated
with different technologies.
Before exploring a least-cost
scenario using LEAP’s
optimization features, let’s first
set up some very simple scenarios,
each of which looks at just a single
generation technology.

Go to the Scenarios screen ( )

and create a first scenario named
“Coal Only” that inherits from
your Current Accounts data. Next
create three more scenarios each
of which directly inherits from the Coal scenario. Name these: “Natural Gas Only”, “Wind
Only”, and “Hydro Only”. Once these have been created, the Scenarios screen will look like
the screen shown above. NB: to minimize data entry it is important that the three additional
scenarios inherit directly from the Coal Only scenario.

Once you have created these four scenarios return to the main screen and under
Transformation\Electricity Generation\Processes, select the Endogenous Capacity variable for
the Coal Only scenario. Use the Add button ( ) on the right of this screen to add the Coal
process to this list and enter the value of 100 MW for the Addition Size Expression for this
variable.

Doing this tells LEAP that in this scenario LEAP should automatically add coal capacity
whenever it is needed. In LEAP’s standard simulation calculations, it is up to you to tell LEAP
what types of power plants to add, although LEAP will decide when to add them. Later on,
when we come to use LEAP’s optimization calculations, you will see that LEAP will decide
both of these questions: what processes to add and when to add them.

Repeat this same process for the three other scenarios: Natural Gas Only, Wind Only, and
Hydro Only. In each case, add only the one process relevant for that scenario (deleting the coal
process), and use 100 MW as the Addition Size Expression.

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7.3.1 Results

You are now ready to see some results for these scenarios. Go to the Results View and
create two different charts as follows:

1. Capacity: First create a chart showing total installed capacity in 2030 in each scenario.
Save this chart as a favorite chart called “Capacity by Scenario”.

2. Social Costs: Next create a chart comparing the total cumulative, discounted social
costs in 2030 (at the top area branch) for each scenario. Make sure you configure the
chart to show All Scenarios on the X-axis and All Social Cost Categories in the legend.
Save this chart as a favorite chart called “Costs by Scenario”.

These two charts should look like those shown below:

Installed Capacity in 2030

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 Cumulative Discounted Social Costs in 2030

Tip: to see a version of this exercise matching the results shown here, first open the standard
Optimization Exercise area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version 7.3.1.

Use LEAP to analyze the results and try to answer the following questions:

1. Why is coal the cheapest option?

2. Why does LEAP incorporate more capacity for the Wind Only and Hydro Only
scenarios if the electricity demand is the same in all scenarios?

7.4 Incorporating Externality Values

The results you obtained above are influenced by the fact that we have so far ignored
a crucial factor: the damage costs associated with pollution associated with burning
fossil fuels. These costs are often ignored because they are not directly monetized in
most energy systems. However, they are a real cost and cause real economic impacts such as
damage to human health and crops.

Next you will enter data that describes these externality values. Go back to the Costs tab on the
Settings screen and make sure that Environmental Externality Costs is checked on. Now
return to the Analysis View and under the top level “Effects” branch in the tree, add two new
branches for the effects nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO2).

Now in the Externality Cost variable, enter the externality values Externality
given in the table to the right in $/kg. Enter this data for the Pollutant Value ($/kg)
Current Accounts scenario so that these externality values are NOx 7
used by all the scenarios. We will deal with climate-related SO2 2
damage costs a bit later on.

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 Now select the Results View again. Once LEAP has recalculated its results, show the
favorite result Costs by Scenario. You should see a chart like the one below. Notice
that LEAP has now calculated a new set of costs corresponding to externality costs.

Cumulative Discounted Social Costs in 2030

Use LEAP to analyze the results and try to answer the following questions:

1. How did the results change and why?

2. What other important types of externalities have we ignored in these calculations?

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7.5 Installing NEMO
If you haven’t already installed NEMO,
download the NEMO installer from
https://leap.sei.org/download/ (note: the
installer is a large file, so downloading
it may take a while). Then quit LEAP
and run the installer to install NEMO
and have it integrated with LEAP.
Finally, open LEAP again, and go to the
Help: About screen to check that LEAP
has properly recognized NEMO.

Finally, go to the General: Settings

screen and open the Optimization tab.
Check that NEMO is listed as an
installed optimizing framework and that
Cbc is listed as one of the installed
solvers. If not, try the Reset NEMO
option and restart LEAP.

7.6 Using Optimization to Identify a Least-Cost Scenario

You are now ready to try out LEAP’s optimization capabilities. These will allow LEAP to
automatically decide what combination of power plants will meet demands at the lowest cost.

Now set up a new scenario in which you will use these optimization features. Go to the
Scenarios screen and create a new scenario called “Optimization” that inherits directly from
Current Accounts.

Return to the main screen in analysis view and select the Optimization scenario. You
only need to set a simple setting to use optimization since you have already entered all
of the basic data needed by the optimization calculations. LEAP will automatically
make use of the same data you already entered in your simulation calculations.

Select the Transformation\Electricity Generation branch and then select the Optimize variable.
If you do not see this variable, check that you are currently editing the Optimization scenario
(this variable does not appear in Current Accounts). Type Yes to tell LEAP and NEMO to use
the fastest available solver installed on your PC.

Note also that you do not need to set the Dispatch Rule for this scenario, since LEAP will use
the optimization calculations to decide how much to dispatch each process. Thus, the Dispatch
Rule is hidden for any scenarios using optimization. That’s all you have to do to use
optimization in LEAP!

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 Now select the Results View. LEAP will again recalculate its results. You may notice
that during its calculations LEAP’s calculations will appear to pause. This is due to
its calling NEMO to carry out the optimization.

Once calculations are complete you can again show the favorite result Costs by Scenario. You
should see a chart like the one shown below. Notice that LEAP has now created results for the
new optimization scenario. You should see that total social costs are slightly cheaper than even
the cheapest of the other scenarios you created previously.

Cumulative Discounted Social Costs in 2030

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To see how this is possible, let’s look at another chart showing Transformation: Outputs by
Output Fuel by process for each scenario in 2030.

Outputs by Output Fuel in 2030

Notice that unlike in the other single-technology simulation scenarios, in the Optimization
scenario LEAP has chosen a mix of power plants. Since the load shape we entered earlier varies
by season and time of day there will be some periods where a very high peak demand exists.
These periods favor power plants that are relatively cheap to build but expensive to operate
(NGCC). Base load periods favor power plants that are more capital intensive, but which have
low running costs (e.g. wind).

Choose the results report Transformation: Power Generation, select All Branches for the
chart legend, All Time Slices for the X Axis and then select the Optimization scenario to see
how power was dispatched in each time slice. You should see a chart like the one below. Notice
how the Wind is being used as much as possible while the Natural Gas plant (with higher fuel
and operating costs) is used only to meet the peaks in demand.

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 Power Generation by Time Slice in 2030, Optimized Scenario

Tip: to see a version of this exercise matching the results shown here, first open the standard
Optimization Exercise area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version 7.6.

7.7 Making the Model More Realistic

One problem with this result is that we have used a constant Maximum Availability for wind
(47%). This implies that 47% of installed wind capacity is available to be dispatched in each
time slice. In reality, however, the availability of wind will depend both on the season and the
time of day. Let’s more accurately reflect that and see what effect this has on the above results.

Return to the Analysis View, then create a new scenario that inherits from the optimization
scenario. Call it “Better Wind” (BWIND). Next, return to the General: Yearly Shapes screen
while ensuring that you have the “Yearly Shape Data.xlsx” file (used earlier) open in Excel.

In the Yearly Shapes screen, click the

Import button and choose Import from
Annual Shape. Create a new shape called
“Wind Availability”, which must be marked
as an Availability Shape using the options in
the import dialog box. Import from range
named “Wind”. The dialog box should look
like the one shown here.

97
Once the shape has been imported, the Yearly Shapes screen should look like this:

Now return to the Analysis View and select the “Better Wind” scenario. For the Wind process
in the Electricity Generation module, specify the more realistic Maximum Availability values
for wind by replacing the constant 47 value with an expression that links to the yearly shape
you just created. The expression should read:

YearlyShape(Wind Availability)

You can either type this, or you can click on the button at the end of the expression box and
select from the list of available Yearly Shapes.

Now return to the Results view (which will require some recalculations) and view the Power
Generation chart again. The overall result is similar: a mix of wind and natural gas is still the
cheapest, although you should now see a more realistic picture of when wind and gas need to
be utilized as shown below.

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 Power Generation by Time Slice in 2030, Better Wind Scenario

7.8 Using Constraints to Specify a CO2 Cap

In this next part of the exercise, you will create an additional scenario that looks at how the least
cost choice of technologies will change if a maximum level of CO2 emissions is imposed on
the system.

To create an emissions constraint, first return to the Optimization tab in the Settings screen and
make sure that the Emissions Constraints box is checked on.

Now return to the main screen and add a new effect under the Effects branch for Carbon
Dioxide. For Currents Accounts and all existing scenarios, no constraint is needed so simply
leave the default Unlimited expression in the Annual Emission Constraint variable.

Next, go to the Scenarios screen and create a new scenario called “CO2 Limit” that inherits
from the Better Wind scenario. Return to main screen and for this scenario enter a value of 3
million Metric Tonnes in the Annual Emission Constraint variable for Carbon Dioxide.

Finally, select Results View again and look at results for electricity generation, total GHG
emissions and total social costs. You should see charts like those below.

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 Installed Capacity in 2030

Outputs by output fuel in 2030

100
 100-Year GWP: Direct (At Point of Emissions) by pollutant in 2030

Cumulative Discounted Social Costs in 2030

Tip: to see a version of this exercise matching the results shown here, first open the standard
Optimization Exercise area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version 7.8.

101
 Use LEAP to analyze the results and try to answer the following questions:

1. What effect does the emissions cap have on the optimal installed capacity?
2. How much do overall social costs increase because of the CO2 emissions cap?
3. Is there an effect on the power dispatch?

7.9 An Alternative Approach to Modeling CO2 Damages

Instead of specifying a CO2 emissions cap, an alternative way to model optimal energy systems
that account for climate damages is to use an externality value for CO2. Try this out yourself
by creating another scenario called “Social cost of CO2” that inherits from “Better Wind” and
instead of specifying the annual emission constraint for CO2, enter different values for the social
cost of CO2.

Through trial and error, try to find out the approximate CO2 externality value ($/tonne) that
yields the same level of GHG emissions as was achieved by specifying the emissions cap of 3
million MT in section 7.8. We recommend testing in increments of $200/tonne. Bear in mind
though that this simple model assumes that emissions can only be reduced by changing
generating options. It does not reflect other likely options such as energy efficiency or T&D
loss reduction. Therefore, cost estimates are likely high.

7.10 Modeling Storage and Capacity Constraints

Now you will add a storage process to the model and tell LEAP to include or exclude it in
certain scenarios. Note that LEAP can only model storage in scenarios that are optimized with
NEMO.

Return to the Analysis

View and add a new
process to the Electricity
Generation module. Name
the process “Batteries” and check the
Storage Process option in the Add
Process dialog box.

In the Current Accounts scenario, specify the following properties for Batteries:

• Process Efficiency: 90% • Capacity Credit: 95%

• Maximum Availability: 95% • Full Load Hours: 8
• Capital Cost: 2,500 thousand dollars/MW • Lifetime: 20 years
• Fixed OM Cost: 20 thousand dollars/MW • Interest Rate: DiscountRate
• Variable OM Cost: 1 dollar/MWh

Leave Minimum Charge and Starting Charge set to 0, and do not change the default values
for the Storage Carryover variables.

Then switch to the Optimization scenario and set the Maximum Capacity for Batteries to 0
MW. This will prevent Batteries from being built in all of your existing optimized scenarios.

102
Finally, in the Scenarios screen ( ), add a new scenario named “Better Wind With Batteries”
that inherits from Better Wind. Change to the new scenario in the Analysis View and set the
Maximum Capacity for Batteries to “Unlimited” (enabling Batteries as an option in this
scenario).

After entering these data and expressions, open the Results View, and look at power
generation in the Better Wind With Batteries scenario in 2030. You should see a chart
like the following.

Power Generation by Time Slice in 2030, Better Wind With Batteries Scenario

Negative generation by Batteries on this chart represents times when the process is charging,
and positive generation times when it is discharging. Notice how LEAP has added a “Net
Dispatch” line to highlight when surplus generation is being used to charge Batteries.

Compare these results to power generation in the Better Wind scenario. How do the
two scenarios differ?

Tip: to see a version of this exercise matching the results shown here, first open the standard
Optimization Exercise area in LEAP then use Area: Revert to Version and select version 7.10.

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7.11 Using Your Own Data
Now go back and review the capital, O&M and fuel costs used in this exercise, as well as the
technical parameters including lifetime, efficiency, maximum availability and capacity credit.

Bear in mind that the values used in this exercise are only sample values: they are not
necessarily intended to be realistic (and of course you should not use them in any real study!)

• How do these values compare to the costs of electric generation in your country?

• Try replacing the capital and fuel costs used in this exercise with your own data (if
available). How does the optimal mix of power plants change?

• Finally, think about which of these variables are likely to change in the future. For
example, you may want to consider how many renewable technologies such as solar and
wind energy have been getting significantly cheaper in recent decades, while fossil fuel
prices (especially oil) generally have been rising. Try entering some growth expressions
to describe these trends. What impact do these changes have on the optimal mix of
power plants?

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