PROBABILITY PHR 107

PART 1

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 Probability is the measure of how likely something
will occur.

It is the ratio of desired outcomes to total possible

outcomes.

Definition (# desired) / (# total)

Probabilities of all outcomes sums to 1.

0 < P (A) < 1; where P = 0 means event A will never

happen and P = 1 means event A will always happen

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Example

For instance, the

If I roll a number Each possibility only
probability of rolling
cube, there are six has one outcome,
a 4 is 1/6, since there
total possibilities. so each has a
is only a single 4 on
(1,2,3,4,5,6) PROBABILITY of 1/6.
the number cube.

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 ◦If I flip a coin, what is the
Practice probability I get heads?

◦What is the probability I get tails?

◦Remember, to think of how many

possibilities there are.

◦What is the probability of getting 2

heads in two flips?

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 P(heads) = 1/2
Total possible outcome [H, T]

P(tails) = 1/2
Total possible outcome [H, T]

Answer
If you add these two up, you will get 1, which
means the answers are probably right.

P (2 heads) =1/4
Total possible outcome [HH, HT,
TH, TT] 5
Two or more events
◦ If there are two or more events, you need to
consider if it is happening at the same time or
one after the other.

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 “And”
• If the two events are happening at the same time
(or two events are dependent on each other),
you need to MULTIPLY the two probabilities
together.

• Usually, the questions use the word “and” when

describing the outcomes.
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 “Or”
• If the two events are happening one after the
other (independent of each other), you need
to ADD the two probabilities.

• Usually, the questions use the word “or” when

describing the outcomes.

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Practice

◦ If I roll a number cube and flip a coin:

◦ What is the probability I will get a heads and a 6?

◦ What is the probability I will get a tails or a 3?

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Answers

P(heads and 6) = 1/2 x 1/6 =1/12

P(tails or a 3) = 1/2 + 1/6 = 8/12 = 2/3

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Experimental Probability
An experimental probability is one that happens as the result
of an experiment.
(# of outcomes) / (# of trials)
The probabilities we have done so far are “theoretical
probabilities", because there was no experiment.

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Experiment
◦ Flip a coin 50 times and write down what happens
for each flip.
◦ In the end, find the experimental probabilities by
writing the how many times heads and tails occurred
over the total number of trials (flips)

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 What is probability?
•Probability is a numerical index of the likelihood that a certain event will occur.
•It is a value between zero and one, which reveals the relative possibility that an event
will occur.
•A probability of zero or close to zero implies that an event is very improbable to
occur, and a probability of one or close to one gives us higher assurance that an event
will occur.
•Between these two extremes, different values of probability are expressed as a decimal
such as 0.20, 0.90, or 0.5, or as a fraction such as 1/5, 9/10, or 1/2. Note that both ways of
expression can easily be expressed in percent (20%, 90%, or 50%).
Working problem 4.1:
◦In a year selected at random,
- What is the probability that Thanksgiving Day will come on a Wednesday?
- What is the probability that Thanksgiving Day will come on a Thursday?
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Experiment, outcome, event, and
Sample Space
◦ Experiment: A pre-planned process for the sake of producing
data that can reveal the purpose of the process application or
meet the objectives of the study in which the experiment is
conducted. In the context of probability, when the term
‘experiment’ is used it typically indicates a process that can
result in only one of several possible outcomes.
◦ An outcome: The result of a single trial of an experiment
◦ An event: A collection of one or more outcomes of an
experiment
◦ Sample space: All possible outcomes taken together represent
the ‘sample space’ for an experiment
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Example
◦ Example 1: In rolling a six-sided die,
◦ What is an experiment?
◦ What is an outcome?
◦ What is an event?
◦ What is a sample space?
◦ Solution: Rolling a six-sided die is the experiment. A number such
as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 is the outcome. Specifying a certain number,
such as odd or even number will be the event. The sample space for
this experiment is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

◦ Example 2: In the process of rolling a pair of fair dice,

◦ What is an experiment?
◦ What is an outcome?
◦ What is an event?
◦ What is a sample space?
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Experiment, outcome, event, and
Sample Space: More Examples
Experiment Outcomes Event Sample space

Rolling a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 Odd S ={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

once number
Taking a test A, B, C, D, or F Passing the S = {A, B, C, D, F}
test
Selecting an age Old, middle, or Getting S = {old, middle, young}
young older
Birth Male or female Gender S = {male, female}
choice
Tossing a coin (H, H), (H, T), (T, H), Two heads S = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}
twice or (T, T)

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The Venn diagram and the tree diagram

◦ The Venn diagram: A picture

H T
representing events as circles
enclosed in a rectangle. The
rectangle represents the sample
space, and each circle represents an (a) Venn Diagram
event Outcome

◦ The Tree diagram: A probability tree H

diagram shows all the possible events.
The first event is represented by a dot.
From the dot, branches are drawn to
represent all possible outcomes of the
event. The probability of each
outcome is written on its branch.
T
(b) Tree 17
Diagram
 The Venn diagram and the tree diagram
Second
◦ Example: Display the Venn diagram and Toss
the tree diagram of the experiment of HH
H
tossing a coin twice.
◦Solution: First
◦In this experiment, the following sample space Toss
H T HT
represents all possible outcomes:
◦S = {HH, TT, HT, TH}.
◦The Venn and tree diagrams of this experiment are
shown on the right TH
H
T
HH TT
S
T TT
(a) Venn Diagram

HT TH
(b) Tree Diagram
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 • Subjective probability
Different types of probability • Objective probability

(1) Subjective probability- defined as the likelihood of a particular event estimated on

the basis of some expert judgment, individual intuition, or some general information

Examples of subjective probability are as follows:

• The probability that Google will buy Yahoo within the next 3 years is 0.1, or 10%.
• The likelihood that your business will begin to earn profit in one year is 80%.
• The chance that a new product will sweep the market is 90%.

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(2) Objective probability is defined as the relative possibility of occurrence of an event defined
either by the classic law of probability, or by using empirical means

Classic probability-The FOUR BASIC RULES

A, is determined by the ratio between the number of favorable

(I) The classic probability of an event,
outcomes, m, and the total number of possible outcomes, n:

(II) The probability of non-occurrence of the event A is called the probability of failure of occurrence and
is denoted by:

(III) For an event A, the probability will lie between 0 and 1, or

(IV) The sum of probabilities (occurrence & non-occurence) in a given experiment is always 1.
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 Example: If a pair of fair dice is rolled,

• What is the probability of rolling a sum of two? P(A)

• What is the probability of rolling a sum of seven? P(B)
• What is the probability of rolling a sum of four? P(C)

P(B) = P(roll a sum of seven) = 6/36 = 1/6

Solution:
P(C) = P(roll a sum of four) = 3/36 = 1/12 Sum of seven =
{(6,1), (1,6), (5,2), (2,5), (4,3), (3,4)}
Sum of four = {(1,3), (3,1), (2,2)}

P(A) = P(roll a sum of two) = = 1/36 Sum of two =

{(1,1)}

Sample Space

6 possible
outcomes per die.
We roll 2 dice,
sample space =
6*2 = 36

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Example: If E is the event of one head coming up in tossing a coin twice, G is the event of odd number
coming up in rolling a six-sided die once:

• What are the complements (chance) of these two events occuring?

• Calculate P(E), P(G), P(E’), and P(G’). note {[P(E’) = 1- P(E)], [P(G’) = 1 – P(G)}

• Draw a Venn diagram illustrating these events

Solution: P(X) = m/n; P(X’) = 1 – P(X)

In tossing a coin twice, the sample space is

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}, favourable outcomes E = {HH, HT, TH} then E'= {TT},

and P(E) = 3/4 or 75%, P(E’) = 1 – 3/4 = 1/4 or 25%

In rolling a die once, the sample space is

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, favourable outcomes G = {1, 3, 5}, then G'= {2, 4, 6},

And P(G) =3/6 =1/2 or 50%, then P(G’)= 1 – 1/2 = 1/2 or 50% 22
Example: If E is the event of one head coming up in tossing a coin twice, G is the event of odd number coming
up in rolling a six-sided die once:
• Draw a Venn diagram illustrating these events

HH

HT

(a) Tossing a Coin (b) Rolling a die once

Twice
TH

TT

G’
E E’ G 6
HH TH 3
1 4
HT TT 5 2

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 Example: In an experiment of rolling a die, find the probability of obtaining an
odd number in one roll of a die. What is the probability of obtaining a number less than
4?

Solution:

The total number of possible outcomes of this experiment is 6, and the sample space is
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
If A is the event that an odd number is observed on the die, the number of favorable outcomes will
be 3, {1, 3, 5}. Accordingly,

The probability of obtaining a number less than 4

involves three outcomes, namely {1, 2, 3}.
Accordingly,

(a) Rolling a
Die Once Event = Odd (b) Rolling a Die Once
Numbers Event Numbers < 4 24
Example: In the experiment of rolling a pair of ordinary dice, answer the following questions:

• What is the probability that both dice show the same face?

Solution:

To answer this question, we have to identify the sample space for rolling a pair of dice as shown
below

The total number of possible outcomes

of this experiment is 36 (S).

The number of times doubles (same face) are rolled is 6

or favourable outcomes {(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)}.

Thus, the probability of doubles is:

(a) Rolling two balanced dice: Event = Doubles

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Example: In the experiment of rolling a pair of ordinary dice, answer the following questions:

• What is the probability that a sum of four is rolled?

Solution:

To answer this question, we have to identify the sample space for rolling a pair of dice as shown
below

•The number of times a sum of 4 will

come up is 3 (see Figure b),
or {(1,3), ((3,1), (2,2)}.
Thus, the probability of sum of 4 is:

(b) Rolling two balanced dice: Event = Sum of 4

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 Example: In the sample space shown below, what is the probability that the two
faces will have different numbers?

Solution:

Here m = 30 and S=36; P(A) = 30/36 = 5/6.

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 Example: In the sample space shown below, what is the probability that the two
faces will have different numbers?

Solution:
Since the probability that the two dice has the same face is P(A) = 6/36. The complement event is
that the two faces are different. The probability of this event is given by

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Working Problem 4.4:

Assuming that in birth, boys and girls are equally likely and that the gender of any child is not influenced by the gender of any
other child.

What is the probability that when a couple has 3 children, they will have exactly 2 girls? What is the
probability that when a couple has 3 children, they will have one girl or more? What is the probability
that when a couple has 3 children, they will have no boys?
What is the probability that when a couple has 3 children, they will have no girls?

Working problem 4.5:

A box has 10 cards labeled 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9.

A represents the event “choose a number less than 3,” and
B represents the event “choose a number greater than 5.”

- What is P(A)?
- What is P(B)?

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Working problem 4.7:

In drawing one card from a standard 52-card deck,

- What is the probability the card will be a queen?

- Which approach to probability did you use to answer this

Question?

Working problem 4.8:

You roll a six-sided die. Find the probability of the following events:
(1)Event A: rolling a 2
(2) Event B: rolling a 6
(3) Event C: rolling a 9
(4) Event D: rolling less than 5

Working problem 4.9:

You roll a pair of ordinary dice. Find the probability of the following events:
(1)Event A: rolling a 2
(2) Event B: rolling a 6
(3) Event C: rolling a 9
(4) Event D: rolling less than 5 30
Empirical probability

Empirical probability is a type of experimental probability that depends on past

data or historical data. Empirical probability is the likelihood of an event to occur
based on some previous years data. It is also termed as Experimental Probability.

Mathematically, the formula for empirical probability can be given as:

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Example: In a recent CNN poll, 2000 people were selected to ask whether second-hand smoke is
harmful. 1450 said second-hand smoke is harmful, and 300 said it is not harmful, and the remainder had
no opinion. Based on the results of this survey.

• What is the probability that a randomly selected adult American believes that second-hand smoke is
harmful?

• What is the probability that a randomly selected adult American believes that second-hand smoke is
not harmful?

• What is the probability that a randomly selected adult American will have no opinion about
second-hand smoke?
Adult opinion Number of students P(event i)
(fi )
Second-hand 1450 1450/2000= 0.725
smoke is
harmful
Second-hand 300 300/2000= 0.15
smoke
is not harmful
No opinion 250 250/2000= 0.125
Total 2000 1 32
Working problem 4.10: The data in the Table below represent the results of a survey in which 2000 people were asked
their best TV show category.

(a)Estimate the probability that a randomly selected individual will only watch sports events

(a)Estimate the probability that a randomly selected individual will only watch movies

(a)Estimate the probability that a randomly selected individual will only watch political news

(a)Estimate the probability that a randomly selected individual will not watch movies

TV show category Number of people

Sports shows only 780

Business News Only 220

Political news only 100

Movies 900

Total 2000
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