Technology Collaboration Programme

by

International Energy Agency

Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme

Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach

TRENDS IN
PVPS

PHOTOVOLTAIC
APPLICATIONS
2024

REPORT IEA PVPS T1-43:2024

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY COLLABORATION PROGRAMME

 IEA
PVPS

WHAT IS IEA PVPS TCP?

...........................................................................................................

The International Energy Agency (IEA), founded in 1974, is an ‘Tasks,’ that may be research projects or activity areas. This
autonomous body within the framework of the Organization report has been prepared under Task 1, which deals with market
for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The and industry analysis, strategic research and facilitates the
Technology Collaboration Programme (TCP) was created with exchange and dissemination of information arising from the overall
a belief that the future of energy security and sustainability IEA PVPS Programme.
starts with global collaboration. The programme is made up
The IEA PVPS participating countries in 2023 are Australia,
of thousands of experts across government, academia, and
Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, Denmark, Finland, France,
industry dedicated to advancing common research and the
Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Morocco,
application of specific energy technologies.
the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, South Africa, Spain,
The IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA PVPS) Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Türkiye, and the United States
is one of the TCP’s within the IEA and was established in 1993. of America. The European Commission, Solar Power Europe, the
The mission of the programme is to “enhance the international Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA), the Solar Energy Industries
collaborative efforts which facilitate the role of photovoltaic solar Association, the Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore and
energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy Enercity SA are also members.
systems.” In order to achieve this, the Programme’s participants
Visit us at: www.iea-pvps.org
have undertaken a variety of joint research projects in PV power
systems applications. The overall programme is headed by an
Executive Committee, comprised of one delegate from each
country or organisation member, which designates distinct

AUTHORS

Main Authors: Gaëtan Masson, (Becquerel Institute), Melodie de l’Epine (Becquerel Institute France) Izumi Kaizuka (RTS
Corporation)
Analysis: Izumi Kaizuka (RTS Corporation), Elina Bosch, Philippe Macé, Gaëtan Masson, Adrien Van Rechem (Becquerel
Institute), Caroline Plaza, Anna Barguès (Becquerel Institute France), Johan Lindahl, Amelia Oller Westerberg (Becquerel
Sweden).
Data: IEA PVPS Reporting Countries, Becquerel Institute (BE), RTS Corporation (JP). For the non-IEA PVPS countries Becquerel
Sweden.
Editor: Gaëtan Masson, IEA PVPS Task 1 Task Manager.
Design: Mahamadou Tchiffa

DISCLAIMER

The IEA PVPS TCP is organised under the auspices of the International Energy Agency (IEA) but is functionally and legally
autonomous. Views, findings and publications of the IEA PVPS TCP do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the
IEA Secretariat or its individual member countries Data for non-IEA PVPS countries are provided by official contacts or experts
in the relevant countries. Data are valid at the date of publication and should be considered as estimates in several countries
due to the publication date.

Front cover: Over Easy Solar - Vertical Solar Panels for Green Roofs and Flat Roofs, credit Over Easy Solar

ISBN 978-3-907281-68-0 : Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2024.

IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

REPORT SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES

..........................................................................................................

The Trends report’s objective is to present and interpret system prices varies, depending on the willingness of the relevant
developments in the PV power systems market and the national PV industry to provide data. This report presents the
evolving applications for these products within this market. results of the 27th international survey. It provides an overview
These trends are analysed in the context of the business, policy of PV power systems applications, markets and production in the
and nontechnical environment in the reporting countries. reporting countries and elsewhere at the end of 2023 and analyses
trends in the implementation of PV power systems between 1992
This report is prepared to assist those who are responsible for
and 2023. Key data for this publication were drawn mostly from
developing the strategies of businesses and public authorities, and
national survey reports and information summaries, which were
to support the development of medium-term plans for electricity
supplied by representatives from each of the reporting countries.
utilities and other providers of energy services. It also provides
Information from the countries outside IEA PVPS are drawn from a
guidance to government officials responsible for setting energy
variety of sources and, while every attempt is made to ensure their
policy and preparing national energy plans. The scope of the
accuracy, the validity of some of these data cannot be assured with
report is limited to PV applications with a rated power of 40 W
the same level of confidence as for IEA PVPS member countries.
or more. National data supplied are as accurate as possible at
the time of publication. Data accuracy on production levels and

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
..........................................................................................................

This report has been prepared under the supervision by Task 1 participants. A special thanks to all of them.

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IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

FOREWORD
...........................................................................................................

2023 was another record year for PV development and the energy With 7 million jobs in the solar PV sector, the contribution to the
transition but also a tumultuous one whose effects will have long- global economy has significantly accelerated in the last years, and
lasting impact on the PV industry. PV contributes massively to the economy of numerous countries.

Installations reached the astonishing value of 456 GW in a However, as 2023 has shown, the development of PV in countries
contrasted market: while the Chinese PV market grew significantly with a rather stable power mix suffered from setbacks and delays.
to absorb its own industry’s overcapacities, the rest of the global While China was accelerating its development, other countries like
PV market experienced a strong, but very much less impressive the USA or India increased volumes but could have achieved even
development to reach 181 GW. The year-on-year change brought higher installation levels, had various administrative, political or
the Chinese PV market well above the sum of all other markets local issues, starting with weak grids or limited social acceptance,
globally, concentrating PV development at a never-seen level. been resolved. Other countries couldn’t match the Chinese
acceleration and the PV manufacturing industry suffered huge
More than 1.6 TW of PV systems were operational at the beginning
overcapacities that resulted in a complete collapse of the price of
of the year 2024, producing more than 2 135 TWh of electricity, or
PV components, especially modules. These low prices continue
8.3% of the global electricity demand. The contribution of PV to
in 2024 and threaten the viability of the entire PV manufacturing
reducing greenhouse gases emissions amounted to around 0.92
industry, not only in China, but in other countries and regions
GTons of CO2, or 2.5% of all emissions from the energy sector if
where projects that were intended to create local jobs and involve
we consider it now replaces baseload generation.This astonishing
populations in the development of PV have been at at risk.
number confirms the status of PV as a key energy source of this
century and its ability to provide affordable, decarbonized and This temporary imbalance between manufacturing supply and
scalable electricity suitable for all locations and system sizes. demand has put tremendous pressure on the manufacturing industry
and will probably lead consolidation an possible bankruptcies. The
PV is reaching maturity whilst diversifying its uses: agrivoltaics
current (mid 2024) low prices can be considered as unsustainable,
are one the key features of the year 2023, with developers of PV
however the competitiveness of PV was already guaranteed on
systems embracing the need to ensure a sustainable dual usage
mid 2023 prices, and prospects for a fast development in the
of land, enhancing or maintaining agriculture while adding energy
coming years remain bright in many countries.
production. In numerous regions, storage already improves the
dispatchability of PV electricity whilst supporting stable networks
and allowing increasingly high penetration rates of PV. Massive
plans have been announced to either transport electricity to distant
consumption sites or transform competitive PV electricity into Gaëtan Masson Daniel Mugnier
liquid fuels. Green hydrogen and its derivatives aiming at feeding Manager Task 1 Chair
the industry with cleaner hydrogen or other chemicals could, in IEA PVPS Programme IEA PVPS Programme
the coming years, open a path for starting the decarbonization of
complex industrial processes.

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IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

TABLE OF CONTENTS
............................................................................................................................................................

FOREWORD2

INTRODUCTION TO THE CONCEPTS AND METHODOLOGY5

PV TECHNOLOGY 5
PV APPLICATIONS AND MARKET SEGMENTS 6
METHODOLOGY FOR THE MAIN PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS  9

PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDS 11

THE GLOBAL INSTALLED CAPACITY 11
PV MARKET SEGMENTS 18
DUAL USAGE AND EMERGING PV MARKET SEGMENTS  22
PV DEVELOPMENT PER REGION 26

POLICY FRAMEWORK 35
PV MARKET DRIVERS AND SUPPORT SCHEMES 36
PROSUMER AND ENERGY COMMUNITY POLICIES 43
ENERGY TRANSITION LEVER POLICIES 46
INDUSTRIAL AND MANUFACTURING POLICIES48

TRENDS IN PV INDUSTRY 49
THE UPSTREAM PV SECTOR 50
ACCEPTANCE OF PV DEPLOYMENT 63

SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS OF PV AND ACCEPTANCE 63

CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION 66
VALUE FOR THE ECONOMY 68
SOCIAL IMPACTS  71
PV END-OF-LIFE 75
MODULE PRICES 77

COMPETITIVENESS OF PV ELECTRICITY IN 2023 77

SYSTEM PRICES  80
COST OF PV ELECTRICITY 83
PV ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION 89

PV IN THE ENERGY SECTOR 89

PV INTEGRATION AND SECTOR COUPLING 93

ANNEXES  95

LIST OF FIGURES 100

LIST OF TABLES 101

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 TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS // 2024
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME WWW.IEA-PVPS.ORG

5
TOTAL BUSINESS VALUE IN PV SECTOR IN 2023

$400 BILLION USD TOP

CHINA
EU
USA
INDIA
277 GW
59.8 GW
33.9 GW
13.0 GW
PV MARKETS IN 2023 BRAZIL 12.4 GW

PV CONTRIBUTION TO ANNUAL INSTALLED

ELECTRICITY DEMAND CAPACITY IN 2023 (GW)
456
GW

8.3%
Share of PV in the
GLOBAL PV
1642GW
2023

CAPACITY
global electricity
demand in 2023 END OF 2023 1186 GW GLOBAL PV CAPACITY
END OF 2022 (GW)

YEARLY PV INSTALLATION, MODULE PV PRODUCTION AND MODULE PRODUCTION CAPACITY 2013-2023 (GW)
CLIMATE CHANGE
1200
IMPACTS 1100

923
1000

900

800

700
GW
million tons of CO2 600

saved in 2023 500

* method changed from 2022; 400
now assuming PV replaces 300
baseload generation
200

100

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Installed capacity Production Manufacturing capacity

PV PENETRATION PER CAPITA IN 2023

PV penetration
(Wp/capita)

1296

648

54 COUNTRIES PV POWER PER CAPITA 36 COUNTRIES

REACHED AT LEAST INSTALLED AT LEAST
1. AUSTRALIA (1 296 Wp/CAP)

1 GWp
IN 2023
2. THE NETHERLANDS (1 288 Wp/CAP)
3. GERMANY (974 Wp/CAP)
4. BELGIUM (842 Wp/CAP) 1 GWp
5. SPAIN (806 Wp/CAP) IN 2023

SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

4
 one
INTRODUCTION TO THE
CONCEPTS AND METHODOLOGY

PV TECHNOLOGY (c-Si) (mono- and multi-crystalline), compound semiconductor

........................................................................................................... (thin-film), or organic.

Today, c-Si technologies account for more than 98% of the overall
Photovoltaic (PV) devices convert light directly into electricity cell production. Monocrystalline or Single crystalline PV cells,
and should not be confused with other solar technologies such as formed with wafers manufactured using a single-crystal growth
concentrated solar power (CSP) or solar thermal for heating and method, feature commercial efficiencies between 20% and 25%
cooling. The key components of a PV power system are various (single junction). The silicon PV module market is nearly exclusively
types of photovoltaic cells (often called solar cells) interconnected composed of these cells (approaching 100%), as they have replaced
and encapsulated to form a photovoltaic module (the commercial multicrystalline silicon (mc-Si) cells, also called polycrystalline.
product), the mounting structure for the module or array, the These were formed with multicrystalline wafers, manufactured
inverter (one or multiple, essential for grid-connected systems by a cast solidification process. They were less efficient, with an
and required for most off-grid systems) the cabling to connect average conversion efficiency of approximately 18% - 21% in mass
the modules with each other and with the inverter(s), the storage production (single-junction) and although there are nearly no new
battery and charge controller (for off-grid systems but also modules with this technology entering the market, they are present
increasingly for grid-connected ones). in a large volume of already operational PV systems.

CELLS, MODULES AND SYSTEMS Thin-film cells are formed by depositing extremely thin layers of
Photovoltaic cells represent the smallest unit in a photovoltaic photovoltaic semiconductor materials onto a backing material such
power producing device. Wafer sizes, and thus cell sizes, have as glass, stainless steel or plastic. III-V compound semiconductor
progressively increased, as this is considered by industrial actors PV cells are formed using materials such as Gallium Arsenide
to be an easy way to improve cell and module wattage. Until (GaAs) on Germanium (Ge) substrates and have high conversion
recently, wafer sizes ranged from 156.75 x 156.75 square mm efficiencies from 25% up to 30% (not concentrated). Due to their
(named M2) up to 210 x 210 square mm (named M12). In 2023, high cost, they are typically used in space applications. Thin-film
a variety of cell sizes and shapes were present on the market, modules used to have lower conversion efficiencies than basic
although a majority of cells were 210 mm square and 182 mm crystalline silicon technologies, but this has changed in recent years.
square. However, in 2023 and 2024, major manufacturers came to They are potentially less expensive to manufacture than crystalline
a consensus and agreed to standardise towards rectangular cells, cells thanks to the reduced number of manufacturing steps from
either the 182R - a cell with a short side of 182mm and a long side raw materials to modules, and to reduced energy demand.
from 188 mm up to 210 mm – or the 210R (182 mm x 210 mm)
and consequently these are expected to progressively replace the
182 mm square or 210 mm square present on the market in 2023.
In general, cells can be classified as wafer-based crystalline silicon

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IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

PV TECHNOLOGY / CONTINUED
...........................................................................................................

Thin-film materials commercially used are cadmium telluride It comprises various electric devices aimed at adapting the
(CdTe), and copperindium-(gallium)-diselenide (CIGS and CIS). electricity output of the module(s) to the standards of the network/
Amorphous (a-Si) and micromorph silicon (μ-Si) used to have a grid or the load: inverters, charge controllers or batteries.
significant market share but failed to follow both the price decline
of crystalline silicon cells and the efficiency increase of other thin A wide range of mounting structures have been developed —
film technologies. The thin-film cell technology efficiency ranges especially for BIPV — including PV facades, sloped and flat roof
between 14% (OPV)1 , 12% (a-Si), 19.2% (CIGS and CIS), 19.9% mountings, integrated (opaque or semi-transparent) glass-glass
(CdTe), 25.1% single junction GaAs and 31.2% three-junction GaAs modules and PV tiles.
(non-concentrated) and above 35% for some CPV modules. It
Single or two-axis tracking systems are attractive for ground-
should be noted that cell conversion efficiencies are generally 2.5%
mounted systems, particularly for PV utilization in countries with a
higher than the commercial module efficiency indicated here.
high share of direct irradiation. By using such systems, the energy
Organic thin-film PV (OPV) cells use dye or organic semiconductors yield can be increased from 15% to 35% for single axis and 25%
as the light-harvesting active layer. Organic and inorganic hybrid to 50% for dual axis trackers compared with fixed systems. The
materials such as perovskites are also used for photovoltaic precise gain depends not only on the latitude of the system, but
materials. Perovskite technology has created increasing interest also the orientation of single axis trackers and the eventual controls
and research over the last few years and is currently the fastest- and algorithms used to manage the tracking system
advancing solar technology. Despite the potentially low production
costs, stable products are difficult to manufacture, nevertheless PV APPLICATIONS AND MARKET
development and demonstration activities are underway. Tandem
cells based on perovskites are an important focal point of current
SEGMENTS
..............................................................................................................
research, with either a crystalline silicon base or a thin film base
and could hit the market sooner than pure perovskites products.
In 2023, an experimental perovskite solar cell achieved 33.9% When considering distributed PV systems on buildings, it is
efficiency in silicon-based tandem and 24.9% efficiencies in CIGS necessary to distinguish building applied photovoltaics (BAPV) and
or CIS-based tandems. Several Chinese manufacturers have buildings integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) systems. BAPV refers
announced shipping perovskite modules in 2022 and 2023. to PV systems installed on an existing building as an addition to
the existing envelope while BIPV implies that the PV replaces
Photovoltaic modules are typically rated from 350 W to 600 W, or
conventional building materials such as roofing elements or
even up to 740W in 2023 for bifacial glass modules, depending on
facades. IEA PVPS Task 15 has reviewed several definitions and
the technology and the size – although typical sizes for residential
versions of how to define BIPV, and compiled it into one:
systems in 2023 was 350 W to 435 W, with larger modules above
540 W more often reserved for centralised ground mounted “A BIPV module is a PV module and a construction product
systems. Specialized products for building integrated PV systems together, designed to be a component of the building. A BIPV
(BIPV) exist, sometimes with higher nominal power due to their product is the smallest (electrically and mechanically) non-divisible
larger sizes. Crystalline silicon modules consist of individual PV photovoltaic unit in a BIPV system which retains building-related
cells connected and encapsulated between a transparent front, functionality. If the BIPV product is dismounted, it would have to be
usually glass, and a backing material, usually plastic or glass. Thin- replaced by an appropriate construction product.
film modules encapsulate PV cells formed into a single substrate,
in a flexible or fixed module, with transparent plastic or glass as the A BIPV system is a photovoltaic system in which the PV modules
front material. satisfy the definition above for BIPV products. It includes the
electrical components needed to connect the PV modules to
A PV system consists of one or several PV modules, connected to external AC or DC circuits and the mechanical mounting systems
either an electricity network (grid-connected PV) or to a series of needed to integrate the BIPV products into the building.”
loads (off-grid).
And the same definition is used in this report. Amongst BIPV
solutions, PV tiles, or PV shingles, are typically small, rectangular
solar panels that can be installed alongside conventional tiles
or slates using a traditional racking system used for this type of
1 Module efficiencies are reported from the NREL Champion Module Efficiencies for building product. BIPV products can take various shapes, colours
small or standard modules: https://www.nrel.gov/pv/module-efficiency.html

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IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

and sizes and be manufactured using various materials, although applied PV (VAPV) relates to the use of PV modules on vehicles
a vast majority use a glass sandwich composition. They generally without integration.
replace conventional building envelope solutions, or, less often,
Infrastructure Integrated PV (IIPV) is when PV is integrated into
provide elements of architectural interest.
infrastructure such as noise barriers, dam walls, pavement, roads,
Bifacial PV modules collect light on both sides of the panel. etc. New applications are being demonstrated regularly.
Depending on the reflection of the ground underneath the modules
Solar Home Systems (SHS) or pico PV systems combine the use of
(albedo), the energy production increase is estimated to be around
efficient lights (mostly LEDs) with charge controllers and batteries.
15% but may reach a maximum of up to 30-35% with single axis
With a small PV panel of only a few watts, essential services can
tracking systems. Bifacial modules have a growing competitive
be provided, such as lighting, phone charging and powering a radio
advantage despite higher overall installation costs, and it is
or a small computer. Expandable versions of pico PV systems
estimated that more than 90% of cells deployed in 2023 were
have entered the market and enabled starting with a small kit and
bifacial, however many were assembled in monofacial modules,
adding extra loads later. They are mainly used for off-grid basic
leaving approximately 50% of the 2023 annual PV market
electrification, predominantly in developing countries.
composed of bifacials modules. Some challenges remain in being
able to accurately simulate the performance of bifacial modules. GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS
In grid-connected PV systems, an inverter is used to convert
Floating PV systems are mounted on a structure that floats on a
electricity from direct current (DC) as produced by the PV array
water surface and can be associated with existing grid connections,
to alternating current (AC) that is then supplied to the electricity
for instance when in the vicinity of a hydro power dam. The
network. The typical weighted conversion efficiency is in the range
development of floating PV on man-made water areas is a solution
of 95% to 99%. Most inverters incorporate a Maximum Power Point
to land scarcity problems in high population density areas and
Tracker (MPPT), which continuously adjusts the load impedance to
presents other advantages including reduced evaporation rates
provide the maximum power from the PV array. One inverter can
in dry climates and improved cooling of PV modules for better
be used for the whole array or separate inverters may be used
efficiency in warm climates. Off-shore floating PV systems are
for each string of modules. PV modules with integrated inverters,
installed in several places.
usually referred to as “AC modules”, can be directly connected to
Agricultural PV combines crops and energy production on the same the electricity network (where approved by network operators).
site. PV can either be a static tool added into pastures or crops or They offer better partial shading management and installation
a dynamic tool to facilitate agricultural production. The sharing of flexibility. Similarly, micro-inverters connected to up to four panels
light between these two types of production potentially allows a also exist, and despite their higher initial cost, they present some
higher crop yield, depending on the climate and the selection of the advantages where array sizes are small and maximal performance
crop variety and can even be mutually beneficial in some cases, is to be achieved. “AC modules” could see increasing use in
as the water which evaporates from the crops can contribute to residential systems but also linear PV systems where savings can
a reduction of the PV modules’ operating temperature. When be made on cable costs when using AC modules. In some specific
combined with grazing, the shade provided by modules can projects, DC to DC inverters are used as the electricity generated is
increase grass quality in some climates whilst livestock grazing injected to DC lines such as tram and railway networks.
reduces maintenance costs for the PV system.
Grid-connected distributed PV systems are installed to provide
PV thermal hybrid solar installations (PVT) combine a solar module power to a grid-connected customer or directly to the electricity
with a solar thermal collector, converting sunlight into electricity network - nearly always the distribution network but, for the
and capturing the remaining waste heat from the PV module to largest utility scale systems, sometimes the transmission network.
produce hot water or feed heating systems. The water circulating in Such systems may be on, or integrated into, the customer’s
the modules can reduce the operating temperature of the modules, premises - often on the demand side of the electricity meter, on
which benefits the global performances of the system. residential, commercial or industrial buildings, or simply in the
built environment on motorway sound-barriers, etc. Size is not a
Vehicle integrated PV (VIPV) designates the integration of solar determining feature – while a 1 MW PV system on a rooftop may
cells into the shell of vehicles to reduce emissions in the mobility be large by PV standards, this is not the case for other forms of
sector. Solar cell technological developments allow new models distributed generation.
to meet both aesthetic expectations for car design and technical
requirements, such as light weight and resistance to load. Vehicle

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IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

PV APPLICATIONS AND MARKET

SEGMENTS / CONTINUED
........................................................................................................

Grid-connected centralized PV systems (also called utility scale Off-grid domestic systems provide electricity to households and
systems) perform the functions of centralized power stations. villages that are not connected to the utility electricity network.
The power supplied is not physically associated with an electricity They provide electricity for lighting, refrigeration and other low
customer, and the system is not located to specifically perform power loads, have been installed worldwide and are increasingly
functions on the electricity network other than the supply of bulk the most competitive technology to meet the energy demands of
power. These systems are typically ground-mounted and function off-grid communities.
independently of any nearby development.
Off-grid non-domestic installations were the first commercial
Hybrid systems combine the+ advantages of PV and diesel application for terrestrial PV systems. They provide power for a
generation in mini grids. They allow mitigating fuel price increases, wide range of applications, such as telecommunications, water
deliver operating cost reductions, and offer higher service quality pumping, vaccine refrigeration and navigational aids. These are
than traditional single-source generation systems. Increasingly, applications where small amounts of electricity have a high value,
diesel generators are being reserved for worst case situations as thus making PV commercially cost competitive with other small
battery storage becomes cheaper. Combining these technologies generating sources.
provides a reliable and cost-effective power source in remote
places such as for telecom base stations. Large-scale hybrids can
be used for large cities powered today by diesel generators and
have been seen, for instance in central Africa, often in combination
with battery storage.
OFF-GRID PV SYSTEMS
For most off-grid systems, a storage battery is required to provide
energy during low-light periods. Several battery technologies
for off-grid PV systems are commonly commercialised in 2023
including different types of lead-acid batteries and lithium-ion. Each
type of battery has specific advantages. The lifetime of a battery
varies, depending on the operating regime and conditions, but is
typically between 5 and 15 years depending on the technology,
usage and maintenance. For some specific applications – typically,
water pumping - no storage battery is needed, and energy is
consumed as it is generated.

A charge controller (or regulator) is used to maintain the battery

at the highest possible state of charge and provide the user with
the required quantity of electricity, while protecting the battery
from deep discharge or overcharging. Some charge controllers
also have integrated MPP trackers to maximize the PV electricity
generated. If there is a requirement for AC electricity, a “stand-
alone inverter” can supply conventional AC appliances.

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IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

METHODOLOGY FOR THE MAIN PV

MARKET DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
........................................................................................................

This report counts all PV installations, both grid-connected and Inclusion of countries in geographical or political blocs and
reported off-grid installations. By convention, the numbers regions (see Annex 4): for tables and graph reporting data for major
reported refer to the nominal power of PV systems installed. These markets, data from member countries of the European Union is
are expressed in W (or Wp) or Wdc. Several methodological steps reported. When referencing regions, data from all countries on the
are taken when compiling data. European continent is aggregated. Unless specified otherwise, the
term Europe includes all countries on the continent. The European
Power capacity reported in AC is converted to DC (nominal) Commission is a member of the IEA PVPS however this report no
power when necessary to calculate the most precise installation longer counts all EU members in IEA PVPS blocs unless specified.
numbers every year: Some countries report the power output Chinese Taipei refers to the economic region, Türkiye is included in
of the PV inverter or even the power of the grid connection. The Europe, and Korea refers to South Korea.
difference between the standard DC Power (in Wp) and the AC
power can range from as little as 5 % (conversion losses) to as Global data should be considered as indications rather than exact
much as 40 % (for instance some grid regulations limit output to as statistics. Data from countries outside of the IEA PVPS network
little as 65 % of the peak power from the PV system, but also higher have been obtained through different sources, some of them based
DC/AC ratios reflect the evolution of utility-scale PV systems). For on custom trade statistics.
some countries, this means publishing different values to official
As the PV market grows constantly, reporting of PV installations
data – for example, China’s National Energy Administration (NEA)
is becoming more complex. IEA PVPS has decided to count all
publishes in AC and PVPS applies a conversion ratio from AC to
PV installations, both grid-connected and off-grid, when numbers
DC. A range of values is often provided to account for uncertainty
are reported, and to estimate the remaining part on unreported
in AC/DC conversion ratios, in particular with regards to new utility
installations. For countries with historically significant capacity and
scale capacity in China, where the minimal annual volume considers
good reporting, a slow yet growing gap between shipped/imported
official China reporting, and the maximal annual volume considers
capacity and installed capacity can be attributed to several factors
a further 42 GW that could have been installed considering the
including conversion factors from AC to DC, repowering and
uncertainty surrounding official conversion ratios from AC to DC of
decommissioning. The extremely fast paced development of micro
utility scale systems. For many figures, these two values have been
systems (plug&play systems with only a few modules), whilst not
represented with full (minimum) and additional shaded (maximum)
significant in overall volumes is symptomatic of the development
bars. If no range is specified, compiled data refers to the higher
of unreported systems reaching the market and sometimes being
totals for China. (Note that the IEA PVPS Snapshot published in
invisible to distribution system operators (DSO) and data collection.
April 2024 used the lower of these two values).

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IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

METHODOLOGY FOR THE MAIN PV

MARKET DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS / CONTINUED
................................................................................................................................

Other market evolutions such as off-grid applications are difficult

to track even in member countries, and significant growth in FIGURE 1.1: ANNUAL INSTALLED VS ANNUAL SHIPPED
installations in third countries without a robust reporting system VOLUMES AND EVOLUTION OF DATA ESTIMATIONS
is also a likely source of underreporting. In light of this, reporting
here takes into account reported and expert estimates of new 700
commissioned capacity as well as probable unreported volumes
installed in one of the above contexts. Data on estimated 600
shipped capacity from custom sources, in inventories, has been
incorporated in Figure 1.1 to improve market visibility. As can be 500
Primary & trusted
seen, between estimations published in the Snapshot in April 2024 secondary source
and those in this publication, many countries have firmed their 400 Approximative
evaluation of annual installed volumes. In particular, volumes for GW source
India and smaller countries have been revised. 300
Expert guess and AC/DC
ratio uncertainty
With significant overcapacity in manufacturing, it should be noted 200
Manufactured but
that approximately 150 GW of capacity was manufactured but not
not installed
commissioned; some of this volume has been installed and will be 100
included in 2024 figures as it is commissioned; some of this volume
is in inventories in Europe and, to a lesser extent, other countries, 0
whilst the remainder is in export inventories or manufacturers SNAPSHOT TRENDS

inventories in China.

SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

10
 two
PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDS

Over 1.64 TW of PV plants have been installed globally, of which THE GLOBAL INSTALLED CAPACITY
over 50% has been installed in the past three years. In 2023, ............................................................................................................
more than 35 countries had a GW-scale annual market. Whilst
the number of national markets with measurable contributions
to global PV capacity is increasing every year, the concentration
of the market in China over the past three years has decreased
their relative importance.
Global PV installed capacity (GW)
A large majority of PV installations are grid-connected and feed
electricity into either the consumer’s internal electrical circuit or
the electrical grid. PV installation data is reported in DC by default
+38% YoY growth
in this report, and this report converts any data officially reported
in AC to DC to maintain coherency. When official reporting is in AC,
announced capacities may be specified as MWac or MWdc in this At the end of 2023, the cumulative global installed capacity reached
report, if necessary, however by default, MW implies MWdc. See 1 642.0 GW1 – consistent with the preliminary estimation of 1 624
Chapter 1 for more information on data conversion methodology, GW published in the IEA-PVPS Snapshot of Global PV Markets
uncertainty and in particular the impact on evaluations of China 2023 in April of this year.
market figures. For more information on registering PV installations,
download the IEA PVPS report on registering PV installation It appears that 413.8 GW represented the minimum capacity
based on trustable sources, and 456.0 GW represented the most
probable capacity installed during 2023. This volume is almost
Download the “Data
double that of 2022, itself well above 2021 volumes – resulting
Model for PV Systems”
from a combination of increased action on climate imperatives,
reports
plummeting module costs and actions in China to absorb
manufacturing capacity.

1. China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) publishes in AC and PVPS applies

a conversion ratio from AC to DC. A range of values is often provided to account for
uncertainty in AC/DC conversion ratios, in particular with regards to new utility scale
capacity in China, where the minimal annual volume considers official China reporting
and the maximal annual volume considers a further 42 GW that could have been installed
considering the uncertainty surrounding official conversion ratios from AC to DC of Utility
scale systems. For many figures, these two values have been represented with full
(minimum) and additional shaded (maximum) bars. If no range is specified, compiled data
refers to the higher totals with Official China reporting values. Note that the IEA PVPS
Snapshot published in April 2024 used the lower of these two values

11
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

THE GLOBAL INSTALLED

CAPACITY / CONTINUED
........................................................................................................

Among the trustable sources, the group of IEA PVPS2 countries The other key markets that have been considered and which are not
represented 1305.7 GW of the global installed capacity. The IEA part of the IEA PVPS Programme represented a total cumulative
PVPS participating countries in 2023 are Australia, Austria, Belgium, capacity of 336.2 GW at the end of 2023. Amongst them, India
Canada, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, still covered around one third of this capacity with 92.6 GW whilst
Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Morocco, the Netherlands, Norway, Brazil (37.8 GW), Vietnam (18.6 GW) and the UK (16.0 GW) scored
Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, the three first places. These countries represented from 5% (UK)
Türkiye, and the United States of America (USA). The European to 28% (India) of the cumulative non-IEA PVPS capacity. Other
Commission is a member of the IEA PVPS and, as such, in this report non-IEA PVPS countries to have significant cumulative volumes
its member countries are counted in IEA PVPS block. include MENA countries with world-record size systems coming
progressively online such as the UAE (7.1 GW) and Saudi Arabia
(2.9 GW), Chinese Taipei (10.4 GW) and Pakistan (4.5 GW) in Asia.
In Europe, Poland (17.4 GW) and Greece (7.2 GW) are the largest
2. For the purpose of this report, IEA PVPS countries are those that are members in their
own right – or, as occasionally mentioned explicitly those that are a member in their own cumulative markets, followed by Ukraine (6.2 GW), although here the
right or through the adhesion of the EC. market has stalled given the ongoing conflict. Another five non-IEA
PVPS European countries have cumulative capacity over 2 GW.

FIGURE 2.1: EVOLUTION OF CUMULATIVE PV INSTALLATIONS

1700 1642.0
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200 1185.9
1100
1000 947.4
GW 900
800 773.9
700 628.4 IEA PVPS countries
600
514.9
500 Other countries
411.1
400
307.9
300 231.3
200 180.5
140.3
100
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

utility-scale systems commissioned in 2023 have allowed the UAE

PV PENETRATION PER CAPITA
to double their rate to 751 W/cap. Another 10 countries now have
PV penetration can be measured either as a ratio of Wp per capita
more than 500 W/cap, including the USA. With the large volumes
or kWh generated to meet a countries electricity demand – here
installed in China, their penetration rate jumped 50% up to 490 W/
we look at the volume of PV capacity relative to the country’s
cap. Of the largest country markets, India (65 W/cap) and Brazil
population, indicating the relative efforts made by different
(175 W/cap) still lag behind.
countries.
Typical residential systems have modules with an individual power
Australia has reached and maintained its place as the highest
of 350 Wp to 435 Wp – and now nearly 30 countries have the
installed PV capacity per inhabitant with 1 296 W/cap (up 11% on
equivalent of 1 to 3 modules installed per person.
2022) in IEA-PVPS and surveyed countries. The Netherlands is
catching up quickly but is once again second with 1 288 W/cap
(+25%). Germany (974 W/cap), Belgium (842 W/cap), Spain (806 Both Australia and the Netherlands have installed
W/cap) and Japan (734 W/cap) kept their top spots. Some big more than 1 250 W/cap.

12
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

FIGURE 2.2: PV PENETRATION PER CAPITA IN 2023

1296

648

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

EVOLUTION OF PV ANNUAL INSTALLATIONS

FIGURE 2.3: EVOLUTION OF ANNUAL PV INSTALLATIONS IN MAJOR MARKETS

500
455.8
450

400
Other countries
350
Other IEA PVPS countries
300 Japan
GW
250 241.7 India
200
USA
173.9
145.4
European Union
150
103.1 109.2 113.5 China AC/DC ratio uncertainty
100
76.6 in utility scale
40.3 50.8 China
50 37.9

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

13
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

THE GLOBAL INSTALLED

CAPACITY / CONTINUED
...........................................................................................................

The IEA PVPS countries installed at least 385.8 GW in 2023. National Energy Administration’s AC figures and depending on the
While they are more difficult to track with a high level of certainty, AC/DC conversion ratio used). Whilst there is an increasingly large
installations in non-IEA PVPS countries contributed an estimated uncertainty around the nominal capacity installed in utility-scale
amount of 70.2 GW. After two years of what was perceived as plants (the inverter/module ratio is estimated based on industry
strong growth, 2023 beat all the records, nearly doubling 2022 practices and a few percentage points error can lead to tens of
annual capacity as module prices dropped. Consumer, and GW of difference in estimated volumes), it is clear that the Chinese
investor confidence in the ability of PV to provide reliable and market was driven by the centralised segment this year, with
stable electricity generation costs as a shelter from electricity just 35% of new capacity in the distributed segment. The Chinese
market fluctuations was maintained. market represented more than 60% of the global installations in
2023, up from last year’s 45%. This market dominance is similar
Much of the growth has been achieved in China, where installed to the role Germany played through the mid-late 2000’s, and the
volumes jumped through the year, although they struggled to keep long-term impacts are difficult to judge. The cumulative capacity
up with the volume of manufacturing capacity available. Between installed in China reached at least 649.0 GW and as much as 691.2
235.0 GW and 277.2 GW was installed (converted from China’s GW.

Taken as a bloc, the European Union would come in second after China in terms of annual installed capacity,
maintaining strong growth rates for the fifth year in a row. The combined annual new capacity was 58.2 GW, led by
Germany that doubled its market to reach 15.0 GW, Spain with a steady 8.9 GW and strong contributions from Italy
(5.3 GW), Poland (4.9 GW) and the Netherlands (4.8 GW).

FIGURE 2.4: EVOLUTION OF MARKET SHARE OF TOP COUNTRIES

100
90% 91%
90 88% 87%
85% 85% 85% 83%
83%
80%
80 76% 77% 78% 77%
75% 75%
71% 72% 69%
70
64%
61% 60%
60 57%
51%
50
45% 44%
42%
40
33% 32%
28% 30%
30 26% 27%

20

10

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

1st Global PV Market Top 5 Global PV Market Top 10 Global PV Market

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

14
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

The USA annual market grew nearly 50% reaching 33.9 GW, elevated - smaller markets are contributing proportionally less to
after a slower 2022 (23.1 GW) and 2021 (24.8 GW). Some of the global installation numbers than the major markets. China has done
issues that hindered the 2022 market seem to have been partially much to absorb the results of its manufacturing capacity growth.
resolved, including installation backlogs due to supply chain issues.
Behind the top 5, Spain in 6th place, (8.9 GW for 38.90GW
The market remains a utility-scale market, with 24.3 GW or just
cumulative capacity) and Japan in 7th place (6.3 GW for 91.4 GW
over 70% of new capacity centralised. The decentralised market
cumulative capacity) remained major (steady) markets. Italy made
saw a robust 9.5 GW installed, solidly above 2022’s 8.2 GW. By the
it back to the top 10 on the back of strong growth, with 5.3 GW
end of 2022, the USA reached 177.3 GW of cumulative installed
new capacity for a cumulative capacity of 30.3 GW. Both Poland
capacity.
and the Netherlands had similar volumes in 2023 to 2022: Poland
After revisions to data for both Germany and India since the with 4.9 GW annual for 17.4 GW cumulative capacity and the
publication of the IEA PVPS Snapshot in April, Germany has Netherlands 4.8 GW of new installations for a total of 23.0 GW.
made it back into the top 3 countries for the first time since
Together, these 10 markets cover around 84% of the 2023 annual
2011, after doubling 2022 volumes to install 15.0 GW, for a total
world market, a sign that the growth of the global PV market has
cumulative capacity of 82.3 GW. India was in fourth place with
been driven by a limited number of countries once again. Market
13.0 GW installed, up from the previous year’s 18.1 GW, for a total
concentration has beWen fuelling fears for the market’s stability in
cumulative capacity of 92.6 GW.
the past, if one of the top three or top five markets would experience
Whilst the market in Brazil didn’t maintain the high growth rates of a slowdown, although the past years have shown that when one
the previous four years, it was still a growth market with 12.4 GW, market slows, another is often in growth (witness USA/India,
reaching 37.8 GW cumulative capacity, confirming its place as a for example). As shown in Figure 2.4, the market concentration
globally important market. steadily decreased in 2019 before growing again in 2020, stabilising
in 2021, then growing even more in 2022 and 2023, due to the
With the dominance of the Chinese markWet, it is no surprise that growth of the Chinese PV market. As new markets are starting to
the market share of the top countries is becoming more and more emerge, the concentration of the global PV market minus China

TABLE 2.1: EVOLUTION OF TOP 10 MARKETS

RANKING 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
1 CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA

2 JAPAN JAPAN JAPAN USA INDIA INDIA USA USA USA USA USA

3 USA USA USA JAPAN USA USA INDIA VIETNAM INDIA INDIA GERMANY

4 GERMANY UK UK INDIA JAPAN JAPAN JAPAN JAPAN JAPAN BRAZIL INDIA

5 ITALY GERMANY INDIA UK TÜRKIYE AUSTRALIA VIETNAM GERMANY GERMANY SPAIN BRAZIL
6 UK SOUTH AFRICA GERMANY GERMANY GERMANY TÜRKIYE AUSTRALIA AUSTRALIA BRAZIL GERMANY SPAIN
7 ROMANIA FRANCE SOUTH KOREA THAILAND SOUTH KOREA GERMANY SPAIN SOUTH KOREA SPAIN JAPAN JAPAN

8 INDIA SOUTH KOREA AUSTRALIA SOUTH KOREA AUSTRALIA MEXICO GERMANY INDIA AUSTRALIA POLAND ITALY

9 GREECE AUSTRALIA FRANCE AUSTRALIA BRAZIL SOUTH KOREA UKRAINE SPAIN SOUTH KOREA AUSTRALIA POLAND

10 AUSTRALIA INDIA CANADA TÜRKIYE UK NETHERLANDS SOUTH KOREA NETHERLANDS POLAND NETHERLANDS NETHERLANDS
RANKING
2 3 3 4 5 4 2 2 2 2 2
EU
MARKET LEVEL TO ACCESS THE TOP 10

792 MW 779 MW 675 MW 818 MW 944 MW 1 621 MW 3 130 MW 3 492 MW 3 710 MW 4 200 MW 4 788 MW

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

15
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

THE GLOBAL INSTALLED

CAPACITY / CONTINUED
........................................................................................................

reduces, and therefore the risks. However, the size of the Chinese
PV market continues to shape the evolution of the PV market as FIGURE 2.5: GLOBAL PV MARKET IN 2023
a whole. As we have seen in 2019, the global growth was limited
due to the decline of the first market, which almost wiped out The Netherlands, 1.05%

the global growth, while in 2022 and 2023, China’s installations Poland, 1.07%
Italy, 1.15%
maximized global growth. By mid-2024, approximately 100 GW of Japan, 1.38%
new capacity was installed in China – whilst the quarterly volumes Spain, 1.97%
Brazil, 2.73%
are higher than the same period last year, if the 2nd half year is India, 2.86%
steady this would lead to similar total volumes in 2024 as 2023. Germany, 3.29%

USA, 7.40%

As detailed above, the IEA PVPS choice consists in

reporting DC capacities. An estimate of AC capacities
Other countries, 16.29% China, 60.78%
would put the new installed capacities number between
305 GWac to 385 GWac in 2023. This number (in the same
way as the DC number) is an approximation of the reality
and represents an estimated value of the maximum .
power that all PV systems globally could generate SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS
instantaneously, assuming they would all produce at the
same time. This number is indicative and should in no
case be used for energy production calculation.
FIGURE 2.6: CUMULATIVE PV CAPACITY END 2023

Other countries that installed several GW in 2023 and were found in Italy, 1.85%
Australia, 2.10%
the top 10 countries in the past couldn’t reach the volumes required Brazil, 2.30%
this year, but remained close: Australia, France and South Korea Spain, 2.37%

all installed more than 3 GW in 2023 – all three have had markets Germany, 5.01%
fluctuating between 3 GW and 5 GW in the past years, and whilst China, 42.10%
it appears that France may be accelerating growth, Australia and Ja pan, 5.56%

South Korea have experienced stable markets or slightly decreasing India, 5.64%
installation rates. Preliminary indications point to a stabilisation in
those markets that have reached market competitiveness across USA, 10.80%
most segments as in the USA or Australia, whilst those in protected
markets are more closely linked to capacities planned within support
Other, 22.25%
mechanisms (France…).
Over 30 countries had more than 1 GW newly installed in 2023,
spread across all continents, with the notable arrival of several .
countries in the Middle East and Africa. SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

16
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

FIGURE 2.7: EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL PV INSTALLATIONS

1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
GW 1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

The Americas Rest of the World Middle East and Africa Europe Asia Pacific *
*inlcudes 42 GW China AC/DC ratio uncertainty
.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

FIGURE 2.8: 2018-2023 GROWTH IN MAJOR MARKETS

1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200 Other IEA PVPS countries
1100
Other countries
GW 1000
900 Japan
800 India
700
600 USA
500 European Union
400
China AC/DC ratio uncertainty
300
200
in utility scale
100 China
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

17
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

PV MARKET SEGMENTS
...........................................................................................................

We consider three market segments in this report; centralised (large Overall, it is estimated that the centralised segment (59% or
systems above a few MW up to utility-scale and mostly feeding 267.0 GW) slightly outweighed the distributed segment (41% or
electricity to the grid), distributed (anything below this connected 189.0 GW) in new annual capacity in 2023, with a swing towards
to the grid and connected to a consumption point) and off-grid. more centralised systems – although it must be noted that the
Off-grid has been included in distributed volumes in this report’s 42.2 GW of probable extra capacity in China is included in the
market statistics With different reporting systems from one country centralised volumes. This globally balanced result is on the one
to another, there is no specific system size separating centralised hand a reflection of the mostly balanced Chinese market but belies
from distributed, however, the segmentation is undertaken in most significant differences in other major markets.
markets by governments, utilities and industry associations as the
The share of utility-scale still represented around 56% of cumulative
impacts are quite different, affecting grid connection, grid capacity,
installed capacity, slightly up from last year’s 55%. Off-grid and
fiscality and taxation and the ability to properly count and evaluate
edge-of-the-grid applications are increasingly integrated into
capacities. Additionally, for some markets, the conversion of AC
distributed installations, with little ability in most countries to track
power to DC power is built on different conversion coefficients, in
volumes.
line with industry practices.

FIGURE 2.9: ANNUAL SHARE OF CENTRALIZED AND DISTRIBUTED GRID-CONNECTED INSTALLATIONS 2013-2023

100

80

60 Annual Distributed
% Cumulative Distributed
40 Annual Centralised
Cumulative Centralised

20

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

.
² SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

Except for the European market that incentivized residential UTILITY-SCALE PV

segments from the start, most of the major PV developments in Utility-scale PV plants are in general ground-mounted (or floating)
emerging PV markets tended to come from utility-scale PV in the installations. In some cases, they could be used for self-consumption
past. The drop in module prices and the increasing attractivity of when close to large consumption centres or industries, but generally
self-consumption across the world is likely to change this, which they feed electricity directly into the grid. Utility-scale applications
has been demonstrated in Brazil and Vietnam, and more recently are thriving in both new and established PV markets. In new or
South Africa in 2023. maturing markets, many countries propose tendering processes to
select the most competitive projects, or to guide the types of land
available.

18
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

in the past years, especially in 2022 pulled by the high electricity

TABLE 2.2:TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR CENTRALISED PV markets costs, gave developers and investors’ confidence in the
INSTALLED IN 2023 ability to create viable projects. Whilst merchant PV is in its early
phases, the impacts of negative prices and price cannibalisation are
COUNTRY GW
two subjects that will be closely monitored by investors over the
CHINA * 180.89
next few years. In parallel, the limitations that are already being seen
USA 24.34 due to grid congestion, social acceptance or strict environmental
INDIA 10.03 impact study requirements remain important barriers. Experience
has demonstrated that securing grid connection can lead project
SPAIN 6.94
developers to tender very low bids just to secure grid connection
GERMANY 4.65
capacity (Portugal, Spain), whilst some countries have had to
BRAZIL 4.1 specifically invest in and develop grid capacity to ensure the
THAILAND 3.48 continued development of utility-scale systems (Australia, Austria,
JAPAN 2.97
Brazil, France).

NETHERLANDS 2.82 New utility-scale PV plants are also using trackers to maximise
SOUTH KOREA 2.97 production and the use of bifacial PV modules is increasing
relatively fast as well. Floating PV is becoming a significant
*includes 42GW AC/DC conversion uncertain volumes SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS
segment. The addition of storage systems has also become a trend
in some countries, either pushed by specific rules in tenders or
TABLE 2.3: TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR CENTRALISED PV by attractive conditions for grid services and wholesale markets
CUMULATIVE CAPACITY IN 2023 (Australia, Germany, USA). In 2023, centralised PV amounted to
269.9 GW (59% of new capacity) globally and the total installed
COUNTRY GW capacity for all of these applications amounted to 877.5 GW or 54%
CHINA* 435.26 of the cumulative installed capacity.
USA 117.25

INDIA 76.87
FIGURE 2.10: CENTRALIZED PV INSTALLED CAPACITY PER
JAPAN 36.85
REGION 2023
SPAIN 30.64
SOUTH KOREA 23.94 700

GERMANY 18.39
600
NETHERLANDS 13.57

BRAZIL 11.49 500

AUSTRALIA 11.36
400
*includes 42GW AC/DC conversion uncertain volumes . SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS GW
300

Utility-scale systems are providing a majority of new capacity in

200
some key markets such as India, the USA, Spain and South Korea.
The commissioning of very large-scale utility systems in the MENA
100
region – Saudi Arabia and the UAE ahead of a number of other
countries in 2024 and 2025 – will add new countries that are driven 0
by centralised systems, however most national markets were not Asia Pacific Europe Middle East and Africa The Americas
led by this segment in 2023.
Cumulative centralized Annual 2023 centralized
Merchant PV, where PV electricity is directly sold to electricity
markets and corporate PPAs, where it is directly sold to corporate .
consumers continues to grow in many countries. Trials conducted SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

19
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

PV MARKET SEGMENTS / CONTINUED

...........................................................................................................

PROSUMERS, POWERING THE DISTRIBUTED PV MARKET for fossil fuels are still a reality and reduce the attractiveness of
Prosumers are consumers producing part (or all) of their own solar PV installations, across all market segments including self-
electricity consumption – and whilst technically any generator consumption. However, PV markets tend to grow quickly when
in proximity to a consumption point will feed that consumption electricity prices increase, and overall, there is a clear trend toward
point, prosumer as a term is reserved for situations where this self-consumption of PV electricity in most of countries, often with
self-consumption is both based on electron flows and financial regulations offering a value for the excess electricity, either through
flows i.e., the consumer is on the same side of the meter as the government mechanisms or utility schemes. This can be done with
generator. The development of prosumer markets is important a FiT, a feed-in-premium added to the spot market price or more
as it can remove pressure on financial incentives and, in parallel, complex net-billing including time-of-use rates. Unfortunately,
reduce demand on grid capacity. the move towards pure self-consumption schemes can create
temporary market slowdowns, especially if the transition is abrupt
Historically driven by simple schemes such as net-metering,
as consumers and market players adapt their understanding
prosumer segments are increasingly developed around the
(California, USA in 2023). However, if the market conditions are
concept of self-consumption, where a distinction is made between
favourable and the market regains confidence, self-consumption
the electricity consumed on site and the electricity injected into the
can become a market driver for the distributed segment. Countries
grid on a close to real time timestep, thereby incentivizing self-
where the distributed segment is driving overall market growth
consumption.
include Germany, Brazil, Italy, Poland, Australia, Austria, Sweden
An important factor in the success of self-consumption schemes is and many smaller European countries.
the retail electricity price that is still being maintained artificially low
in some countries – even through the high prices of 2022. Subsidies

TABLE 2.4: TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR DISTRIBUTED PV TABLE 2.5: TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR DISTRIBUTED PV TOTAL
INSTALLED IN 2023 INSTALLED CAPACITY IN 2023

COUNTRY GW COUNTRY GW
CHINA 96.29 CHINA 255.62
GERMANY 10.36 GERMANY 63.92
USA 9.53 USA 60.10
BRAZIL 8.35 JAPAN 54.33
ITALY 4.40 BRAZIL 26.33
POLAND 3.65 AUSTRALIA 22.73
JAPAN 3.33 ITALY 21.6
AUSTRALIA 3.15 INDIA 15.29
INDIA 2.99 POLAND 13.40
SOUTH AFRICA 2.60 FRANCE 12.67

. SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS . SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

20
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

The distributed market has been oscillating around 16-19 GW allows different consumers located in the same building or private
from 2011 to 2016, until China succeeded in developing its own area (collective self-consumption), or in the same geographical
distributed market: it allowed the distributed PV market to grow area using the public grid (distributed, virtual or delocalized self-
significantly by roughly doubling over several years from 2016 to consumption), to share the self-generated electricity, unlocking
2018. In 2023, this market grew to 189.0 GW1, up from 177.7 GW access to self-consumption for a wider range of consumers.
in 2022. If well implemented, this can allow the development of new
business models for prosumers, create jobs and local added value
An increasing number of countries, particularly in Europe, promote
while reducing the price of electricity for consumers and energy
collective and distributed self-consumption as a new model for communities. These models of production could also reduce the
residential and commercial electricity customers. This model
impacts on the grid of PV systems by encouraging consumers to
1. Including off-grid systems adapt their consumption to solar generation hours.

FIGURE 2.11: DISTRIBUTED PV INSTALLED CAPACITY PER REGION 2023

400

360

320

280
Cumulative distributed
240

GW 200
Annual 2023 distributed
160

120

80

40

0
Asia Pacific Middle
Europe
East and Africa The Americas

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

21
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

DUAL USAGE AND EMERGING PV

MARKET SEGMENTS
...........................................................................................................

The installation of photovoltaic installations on infrastructure or contribute to achieving renewable energy targets has been studied
land used for other purpose is a response to the competition for in different regions, and whilst government and developer interest
land implied by the massive development of new PV capacities, has increased, so has reluctance or opposition from farmers and
and the resulting questions around social acceptance. The social the general public. To give an example of the potential of this
acceptance of PV and the availability of land surfaces are key segment, in Japan, a mapping of all agricultural land suitable for PV
considerations for the massive deployment of new PV capacity in concluded that just 10% could hold 440 GW of PV – whilst in 2023,
a certain number of countries - typically where there is existing Japan’s cumulative capacity across all segments is “only” 91.4 GW.
or spreading urbanisation, sustained or regular loss of agricultural South Korea has set a target of 10 GW of agrivoltaics as part of
land or a strong push to preserve heritage buildings and natural its 46.5 GW 2030 PV target, to be compared with the cumulative
landscapes for aesthetic and cultural reasons. capacity in 2023 of 27.6 GW. It has been estimated that covering
just 1% of the European Union’s agricultural lands could allow the
For ground-mounted installations, competition has arisen between
installation of 410 GW – but just 15% of this was installed in 2023
other uses and electricity production, dominated by conflict for
(59.8 GW) whilst the top target of the RePowerEU plan is set at 750
agricultural land. By proposing a combined use for both agricultural
GW in 2030.
production and energy production, agrivoltaics offers an acceptable
alternative. Floating solar photovoltaics is a particularly dynamic PV on agricultural land is implemented with different configurations
market segment in Asian regions where the tension on land use is and designs, and sometimes specific vocabularies:
strong, using the available surfaces on natural and artificial lakes
and reservoirs. These market trends in the centralized segment • PV systems above crops or plants; the PV system allows
are strong and underpinned by the same imperative of dual land for growing different kinds of crops but with reduced solar
use. The use of other infrastructure such as canopies on canals or insulation and could provide new services and business models
noise barriers along highways is also becoming more common, – such as protection against hazards that damage crops (hail,
driven by the same motivating factors of access to land without excessive sun), water saving though reduced evaporation,
generating conflict or opposition. and environments adapted to crops that would not have been
possible in the actual or future climate conditions. This dual use
On a smaller individual scale, integrating PV into and onto buildings requires specific technical solutions such as elevated PV plants,
has been a target for specialised companies for a long time – and where either the density of the panels is reduced and adapted
has even been the mainstay of public policies for the distributed to the crops needs or the panels are mobile and their position
segment in the past in some countries (most notably France). In (tilt) is modified to maximize PV production or crop production
particular, the European Union is encouraging member states depending on the weather conditions. The density can be
to develop ambitious targets. It can be attractive because it adapted by the design of the PV plant by spreading modules
uses existing buildings but also can lead to a more harmonious out or by modifying the module itself to be semi-transparent.
integration in the environment, reducing social resistance.
• Crops, grassland, pollinator habitat and grazing can be hosted
AGRIVOLTAICS between the rows of PV plants. The systems must enable
the land to maintain its agricultural vocation. The shade
The development of PV on agricultural land has been a reality
supplied by the systems can increase grass production and
since the beginning of utility-scale PV deployment. In some
reduce animal (and worker) heat stress – indeed, in some
cases, crops were replaced by photovoltaics and land use shifted
countries increased shading for animals as temperatures
towards electricity production; in other cases, low intensity grazing
increase because of climate change could be an important
continued around modules. Agrivoltaics, however, proposes
motivator. The design of the PV plant must be adapted to
a different approach by using land for both food and energy
the activity: adequate space between the rows to allow
production at the same time. As PV penetration rates increase in
agricultural machinery, the right height, electrical and dust
many countries, competition for land can limit PV development –
protection. Ground-mounted PV plants, some with trackers,
some countries have even regulated access to agricultural land for
are implemented at a utility-scale level. Vertical bifacial PV is
PV through legislation or conditions in tenders (Italy, France, South
also being tested in several plants, as the impact of the PV
Korea).
on the land available for the agricultural activity is very low.
The potential for PV on agricultural land, and how this segment can
• PV systems are also developed and integrated in greenhouses.

22
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

Even if the potential for PV on agricultural lands is important, other separately. Italy announced support for 1,5 billion EUR including
factors must be taken into consideration. Food production security the so-called agrisolar park in rural areas, and by mid-2023 had
and agricultural sufficiency are generally the first priority, with the awarded nearly 0.5 GW of projects. Specific calls for tender have
agricultural sector’s economic balance, environmental evaluations, been set for agrivoltaics in numerous countries including Israel
social acceptance and water management also important factors. with a tender for 100 MW of agrivoltaic systems in 2022. In the
Japan was a pioneer where “solar sharing” was defined in 2003, USA, there is more than 10 GW of projects that are combined
referring to PV installations where 80% of agricultural yields are with grazing or pollinator/native habitats, but a much smaller
maintained - guidelines were published in 2021 and updated in volume (less than 1 GW) protecting crops or on greenhouses.
2023. France, Germany and Italy have published legal frameworks
IIPV: INFRASTRUCTURE INTEGRATED PV
or guidelines in 2022 and 2023. Italy adopted a Decree in December
The massive deployment of new PV capacity is presenting new
2023, dedicated to “advanced AgriPV”. DIN SPEC 91434, the
challenges such as social acceptance and the availability of land
German Standard for agrivoltaics shapes the German framework
surfaces for new installations. For ground-mounted installations,
and support scheme. Criteria are based on agricultural yield (at
competition has intensified between other uses and electricity
least 66% of the reference yield) and the agricultural use of the
production; particularly where tensions over land are high: intense
land must be guaranteed. “Interval” and “overhead systems” are
urbanisation, need to maintain agricultural production, preservation
differentiated in the definition, as are the expected outcomes. In
of buildings and natural landscapes, etc.
France, agrivoltaics is defined by law - an agrivoltaic installation
is considered to be an installation which directly contributes to Unused land close to transport infrastructures (along roads,
agricultural activities: improving agronomic potential, protection highways and railways) and waterways (irrigation canals, banks,
against hazards, improving animal welfare and guaranteeing dikes, etc.) has significant potential for the installation of PV power
significant agricultural production.
The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC)
System costs and profitability vary depending on the importance has assessed the potential for large-scale deployment of
given to agricultural production compared to energy production. vertical solar panels along major roads and railways in
Support mechanisms and financial aid intensity can also vary Europe. The results reveal a total potential of 403 GWp
accordingly. PV systems falling under the most restrictive definition within the European Union for this type of integration
of agrivoltaics typically receive higher incentives. alone, compared to the EU’s 2030 target of 750 GWp.
Generally, in the different frameworks and support mechanisms, The study also establishes that considering only railway
two types of PV projects are considered: lines, the total annual production of PV electricity could
potentially reach 250% of the current annual electricity
• PV plants where some form of agricultural production consumption of the EU rail network. This approach
is maintained. These systems are already economically offers considerable potential to power the EU’s energy
viable and cost-effective. Energy production dominates but needs while contributing to the decarbonisation of the
agricultural production is maintained. These projects often transport sector.
participate in the classic competitive tenders or negotiate
PPAs. plants and can be an opportunity for new surfaces for PV with better
• PV plants complying with advanced criteria where they social acceptance, and the rapid decline in PV prices in recent
enhance agricultural production and farmer revenue. years has allowed PV systems to increase their competitiveness
Agricultural production profitability must dominate, and and creates new opportunities for these innovative deployment
energy production is an added value. This type of plant solutions.
requires being adapted to the specific crops underneath. The integration of solar PV energy along transport infrastructure
Agrivoltaics is still an emerging market when compared to global can make a significant contribution to the energy transition. Vertical
PV capacity. Japan has seen more than 1 800 agrivoltaic farms PV walls along roads, motorways and railways, whether or not
commissioned, but most of them are small systems. Between 2013 integrated with noise barriers, have historically been developed
and 2021, less than 1 GW was installed. China has also an important in Europe (Switzerland, Germany, Austria, the Netherlands) and
installed capacity, but this segment doesn’t appear to be monitored are attracting growing and continuous interest with new projects
coming online in the past years around the world (South Korea,

23
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

DUAL USAGE AND EMERGING PV

MARKET SEGMENTS / CONTINUED
...........................................................................................................

USA, the Netherlands). The electricity production generated by PV 8.7 MW) continued to expand its installations. In the rest of the
installations along roads could contribute to the decarbonisation world, significant FPV projects were commissioned in 2023 in
of this sector as electric vehicles become the norm, by producing Israel (31 MW), Ghana (Bui Hydro-Solar PV Hybrid 5 MW), USA
energy as close as possible to consumption. (Canoe Brook Reservoir 8.9 MW) and Colombia (Aquasol 1.5 MW).
Project development remained dynamic, with new contracts for
Several pilot projects for elevated PV systems over bicycle increasingly larger projects signed in India after a specific tender
paths and roads are announced (Germany, France), as well round; additionally, aggressive development targets have been
as experiments on dikes (Netherlands). PV shade canopies on set by development companies for the creation of strong localised
irrigation canals, developed in India since the 2010s, are starting to portfolios of FPV in India (100 MW in Assam), Philippines (100 MW),
be announced in regions subject to high evaporation rates (USA, France (74.3 MW), China ( 2 GW) or even Zimbabwe (1 GW), whilst
Spain, even France). National railway companies and private local governments and utilities are increasingly incorporating the
developers are also announcing pilot projects along their networks development of FPV into generation and climate action roadmaps
(UK) on previously unexploited linear land. (Germany, Spain, Portugal, India). Specific tenders have been run
The types of systems (ground mounted, vertical, integrated into in some countries (Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Kenya, Portugal).
existing infrastructure, in canopies) are numerous and present Floating PV has gained an early foothold on subsidence areas
different levels of technological, industrial and commercial of former (coal) mines and quarries filled with ground water,
maturity. One of the challenges of these installations lies in the unsuitable for industrial or agricultural activities and generally
fact that the support’s initial use (noise barrier, sunshade) must be with little bioactivities (leading to minimal environmental impacts).
preserved while allowing the production of electricity - the proper Installing FPV on hydropower dams has advantages (for example,
functioning of structures, systems and equipment, as well as their streamlining grid connection when conjointly operating the solar
maintainability, should be ensured. For those installations on linear and hydro power generation, rather than pure colocation of the
land (long and narrow) technical and regulatory questions remain FPV plant on the reservoir). Apart from the diurnal cycle (i.e.,
to be resolved, in particular with regards to the use of often public generating solar power during the day and saving water for
lands for private benefits, whilst the electrical architecture and hydropower generation at night), there is also a possible seasonal
connection possibilities must be studied to achieve both technical benefit in areas with dry and wet seasons. Depending on the
and economic viability. turbines and their reaction times, it is also possible to buffer some
FLOATING PV: CONTINUED GROWTH of the short-term variability from solar (due to cloud movements)
In densely populated areas, the proximity of water bodies to and use the reservoirs as a “giant battery”. Planned PV projects
load centres is often an advantage. Traditional land-based PV on hydropower reservoirs often aim for large capacities such as in
systems face competition for land use with industrial or agricultural Thailand (2.7 GW), Malaysia (2.5 GW) and Zimbabwe (1 GW).
activities, or may not be economically viable due to the high cost
The challenges of near-shore and off-shore marine FPV projects
of land. Japan was one of the early adopters of Floating PV (FPV),
are the more demanding environments, where tidal currents, rich
with over 200 projects. FPV is even possible in city states such
marine life, wind, waves and the presence of salt water all need
as Singapore, and archipelagos such as Indonesia. The highest
to be considered. The potential for near-shore areas is significant
installed FPV capacity to date is deployed in China (expected to be
as unused space can be activated for energy harvesting close to
over 2.7 GW for about 50 projects by the end of 2023).
load centres in coastal settlements and harbours. Going further
By the end of 2023, the global installed capacity of FPV systems is off-shore aggravates the challenges and cost but still has possible
estimated to have reached approximately 7 GW. This represents applications, especially for powering oil and gas platforms or for
a significant growth, with the capacity expanding from 5.7 GW in using the existing transmission infrastructure and vast ocean
2022. Most of the growth in 2023 was in Asia-Pacific as in previous spaces between the towers in off-shore wind farms (construction
years, with large-scale projects in Indonesia (192 MW Cirata of a 1 GW project started in China in 2023 and pilot projects in the
Floating Power Plant), Thailand (60 MW), India, Bangladesh (3.2 Netherlands and Belgium).
MW) and China (650 MW). In Europe in 2023, several countries,
Most of the installations in operation use HDPE plastic floats, (Ciel &
including Latvia (2.1 MW) and Albania (2 MW), inaugurated
Terre, Sungrow, and BayWa r.e. together have a significant market
their first FPV projects, marking a significant milestone in their
share) but there are an increasing number of different designs,
renewable energy initiatives. Meanwhile, France (Cintegabelle
ranging from a combination of floats and metal structures (e.g.

24
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

Zimmermann) to membranes that are held in place by large plastic models, different incentives, many kinds of buildings and
rings (e.g. Ocean Sun). For off-shore applications, more robust infrastructure, BIPV covers many applications with a large variety
designs are being test-bedded, for example by Oceans of Energy of technical solutions – and what is counted as BIPV also changes
or SolarDuck. from one country to another.

Going beyond floating solar, the use of near-shore pile based fixed The market is split between industrial products (prefabricated
systems to take advantage of unoccupied space is also being tiles…) and custom-made architectural products, and the
explored, for example with the ambitious goal of 11.25 GW in differences between custom-made elements and traditional glass-
Shandong Province (China) spread across 10 plants. glass modules can be difficult to assess. Simplified BIPV, using
conventional PV modules with dedicated mounting structures, is
The PV market is expected to achieve 20 GW of installed capacity still leading the BIPV market. While supply has been “Western-
between 2024 and 2030, with India and China contributing to centered” for a long time, in China many manufacturers are
more than 40% of this expansion. Different studies have evaluated adding BIPV products to their catalogue, including mainstream
regional potentials – a study conducted by researchers in the UK1 manufacturers. Research that will benefit BIPV include emerging
found that covering just 10% of the surface of unprotected lakes
technologies such as perovskites (for module shape and
and reservoirs within 10 km of population centres worldwide with
transparency customization), and cell connections such as matrix
FPV could generate 1 302 TWh of electricity annually. The study
shingling for greater freedom customisation.
found that on average, countries could cover 16% of their annual
electricity consumption with FPV, whilst five countries, including Depending on the definition considered, the BIPV market ranged
Benin and Rwanda, could cover all their electricity needs this way. from 250 MW to 450 MW per year in Europe last year, indicating a
Additionally, an Australian study estimates that offshore floating moderate growth or even a stagnation. Globally, the BIPV market
solar panels in favourable conditions could generate 220 000 TWh probably approached 3 GW, with an increasing number of projects
annually. The fast deployment has not been without problems, in Asia. It is expected to keep on growing, but at a slower pace than
as the environmental impacts are still not properly understood, the rest of the PV market.
whether it be the biological impacts on water flora and fauna,
OFF-GRID MARKET DEVELOPMENT
or hydrological impacts, particularly on flood prone waterways.
Numbers for off-grid applications are generally not tracked with the
An increasing understanding may lead to revised development
same level of accuracy as grid-connected applications, and volumes
strategies, as seems to the case in China.
are marginal compared to the grid-connected market because the
BIPV: A NICHE MARKET rapid deployment of grid-connected PV and the size of utility-scale
Market perspectives for BIPV are positive, as past obstacles -systems. Nevertheless, off-grid applications continue to develop
are progressively overcome and the regulatory pressure to mainly thanks to rural electrification programs essentially in Asia
decarbonize the energy consumption of buildings increases, and Africa but also in South America, and mini-grid development
particularly in Europe and China. BIPV benefits from the global PV in Africa.
momentum, especially in land-constrained areas where rooftop
PV is developing fast. However, the inflationist environment in In some countries in Asia and in Africa, off-grid systems with
the USA and Europe heavily hit the construction sector, which back-up represent an alternative to bringing the grid into remote
hindered the growth of the BIPV market. In China, the real estate areas or as an anticipation of grid connection. Two types of off-grid
sector has known an unprecedented slow-down. systems can be distinguished:

The lack of knowledge amongst professionals of the building • Mini-grids, also termed as isolated grids, involve small-
construction sector also hinders BIPV growth. Although knowledge scale electricity generation with a capacity between 10 kW
is increasing, there is also a real shortage of people combining PV- and 10 MW. This grid uses one or more renewable energy
and building-related skills (across design, performance simulations, sources (solar, hydro, wind, biomass) to generate electricity
knowledge of existing products, technical constraints, ...). Much and serves a limited number of consumers in isolation from
remains to be done for education and training to generalize BIPV. national electricity transmission network. Back-up power can
be batteries and/or diesel generators.
Market figures are difficult to estimate. With multiple business

1. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00251-4

25
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

DUAL USAGE AND EMERGING PV PV DEVELOPMENT PER REGION

MARKET SEGMENTS /CONTINUED ...........................................................................................................
...........................................................................................................

• Stand-alone systems, for instance solar home systems (SHS) The early years of PV development started with the introduction of
that are not connected to a central power distribution system incentives in Europe, particularly in Germany, and caused a major
and supply power for individual appliances, households or market uptake in Europe that peaked in 2008. While the global
small businesses. Batteries are also used to extend the daily market size grew slowly in the early 2000s, from around 200 MW
duration of energy use. in 2000 to around 1 GW in 2004, significant investments in Europe
pushed the market faster after this. In 2008, Spain fuelled market
PV increasingly represents a competitive alternative to providing
development while Europe as a whole accounted for more than
electricity in areas where traditional grids have not yet been
80% of the global market until 2010, with 8 GW in 2006, booming
deployed. In the same way as, mobile phones are connecting
to 17 GW in 2010.
people without the traditional lines, PV is expected to leapfrog
complex and costly grid infrastructure, especially to reach the “last From 2011 onward, the share of Asia and the Americas started
miles”. to grow rapidly as some European markets contracted in a post-
boom “bust” phase (Spain, France) with Asia taking the lead. This
In developing countries (Africa), mini grids are being built to
evolution has had Asia’s share oscillating between 50% and 75%;
electrify villages and small regions as an alternative to extending
in 2023, it reached nearly 70%.
costly distribution networks. In some countries, most notably
in Australia, as grid infrastructure becomes fragile in the face of
extreme climate events (heat waves, fires, floods and storms), Detailed information about most IEA PVPS countries
micro-grids are being built in edge-of-grid situations to reduce can be found in the yearly National Survey Reports and
the cost of replacing damaged infrastructure and to provide more the Annual Report of the programme. IEA PVPS Task 1
resilience for local populations. representatives can be contacted for more information
about their own individual countries.
Stand-alone systems tend to be specific to countries that have
enough solar resources throughout the year to make a PV system
viable - regions where there is demand for low energy applications
(lighting, smartphone charging). The challenge of providing
electricity for lighting and communication, including access to FIGURE 2.12: ANNUAL GRID-CONNECTED CENTRALIZED
the internet, is being met by PV as one of the most reliable and AND DISTRIBUTED PV INSTALLATIONS BY REGION IN 2023
promising sources of electricity in developing countries. Specific
business models are developed (in Africa for instance) and large 100

energy groups are targeting millions of people with such products. 90

After a record 2022 year, it is estimated that 2023 volumes for this
80
type of systems was slightly lower2.
70
PV has also been deployed to power off-grid agricultural purposes
60
such as water pumping installations.
% 50
In most developed countries in Europe, Asia or the Americas, there
40
is little need for these systems, however, the future development
of off-grid applications for remote islands and rural or underserved 30
areas remains an important potential market. 20

10

0
Asia Pacific Europe Middle East and Africa The Americas

Grid-connected Distributed * Grid-connected Centralised

.
*includes off-grid SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

2. https://www.gogla.org

26
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

THE AMERICAS 67% (8.3 GW) was in the distributed segment – with over 30 GW
The Americas saw 52.6 GW of PV installed in 2023 for a total of distributed projects having requested grid connection, although
cumulative capacity of 248.4 GW in 2023. This represented nearly it remains to be seen how much of this capacity will be effectively
12% of annual global capacity, down from last year’s 16% as the commissioned. Its cumulative capacity is now 37.8 GW.
Chinese market leapt beyond other markets capacity to follow.
Outside of the IEA PVPS countries, Mexico added 1.6 GW of new
As in 2022, most of these capacities are installed in the USA and
capacity in 2023, including the commissioning of the first phase
Brazil, but several countries have cumulative capacity over the GW
(120 MW) of a 1 GW plant in Sonora. Distributed solar continued
level and continue to instal several hundred MW per year (Canada,
strongly with 480 MW of new capacity.
Chile, Mexico).
Other South American markets remain low compared to Brazil,
PV is developing in the Americas in both the distributed and
but hundreds of MW are still coming online in most countries as
centralised segments; the USA is pulled by the utility-scale
smaller centralised system of a few dozen or hundred MW are
segment, as is the market in Canada, running both on tenders
planned. The PV market picked up in Argentina after a very slow
and PPAs, whilst in Brazil distributed solar is the largest segment.
2022, nearly climbing back to 2021 volume, but was still only a few
USA has by far the largest installed capacity, adding 33.9 GW to
hundred MW although plans are underway for a multi GW system.
reach a cumulative capacity of 177.3 GW – 2023 was the biggest
In Ecuador, the government selected laureates from its 2021
year for solar in the USA ever, as systems delayed by supply
competitive tenders, but downgraded its election of an initial 345
chain and grid queue issues in 2022 were connected. Utility solar
MW of projects to just 120 MW. Chile was the 2nd largest market
jumped from 14.59 GW in 2022 (18.2 GW in 2021) up to 24.3 GW
in South America, heading towards 10 GW cumulative capacity,
in 2023, whilst annual distributed solar volumes increased as well
with more than 1.3 GW commissioned in 2023, across utility,
adding 9.5 GW, up from 8.2 GW in 2022. The Inflation Reduction
commercial and distributed solar. In Colombia, approximately 200
Act of 2022 (IRA) incentives also played their part in the growth, as
MW of utility-scale PV came online in 2023, with more than 1 GW
did evolving electricity consumption rates and renewable energy
of projects beginning construction, and over 5 GW of capacity was
standards and pledges as well as support for solar communities.
selected in tenders and there is growing interest in distributed solar
Evolving quite differently, Brazil continued to be the 2nd market
for commercial projects.
in the Americas and the 5th worldwide, adding 12.4 GW of which

FIGURE 2.13: EVOLUTION OF PV INSTALLATIONS IN THE AMERICAS PER SEGMENT

100

90

80

70

60

% 50

40

30
Grid-connectedDistributed
20

10
Grid-connectedCentralised
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

27
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

PV DEVELOPMENT PER REGION / CONTINUED

................................................................................................................

ASIA-PACIFIC The market in Japan was down to 6.3 GW from 6.6 GW in 2022,
The Asia-Pacific region installed 314.4 GW in 2023 and the total reaching a cumulative capacity of 91.4 GW, The Japanese market
installed capacity reached nearly 1 TW, with a minimum of is slowly contracting year on year, dropping to its lowest annual
946.2 GW up to a probable 988.8 GW. The market remained strong addition of new capacity since 2012. Tenders through the year
across all of Asia Pacific, with a few exceptions where volumes were were undersubscribed, and the market share of centralised
down compared to 2022 – for example in India, and in the utility- systems dropped to 47% (from 56% in 2022). FiT were increased
scale segments of Japan and Australia. The region represented for some segments to encourage building applied systems, and the
69% of global annual capacity, up from 59% in 2022, and cumulative distributed market grew for the first time in several years, up 15%.
capacity in the region has now tipped over the 60% mark.

The size of the Chinese PV market makes it a dominant player

in the Asian and global PV markets, while all other markets are Both South Korea and Australia had stable markets; South Korea
lagging behind. Asia is home to several IEA-PVPS GW-scale at a steady 3.3 GW (for a cumulative capacity of 27.6 GW) and
markets in 2023: China, Japan but also Australia, South Korea, with Australia at 4.2 GW (for a cumulative capacity of 34.5 GW). The two
lesser volumes in Malaysia. markets are dissimilar though – carried by centralised systems in
South Korea and the distributed segment in Australia. Australia is
China installed 277.2 GWdc (converted from China’s National investing in new grid capacity to facilitate further development of
Energy Administration AC figures using the IEA-PVPS AC/DC utility-scale PV as it heads into what is expected to be regular 100%
conversion ratio as explained in this report), reaching a cumulative renewable supply over several hours before the end of 2025.
capacity of 691.2 GWdc. After two years of balanced growth in the
distributed and centralised segments, 2023 saw a real pull from the Chinese Taipei added 2.7 GW or 25% of its cumulative capacity
centralised segment (65% of new capacity). Volumes were spread in a single year to reach 10.4 GW, whilst Thailand’s market was
unevenly across the country, with the highest concentration in the a standout, adding roughly 4 GW to reach 8.9 GW. Whilst the
provinces running south down the coast from Beijing, although the market in the Philippines remained small in 2023, the liberalised
capacity in the western province of Xinjiang is catching up to some energy market has proved attractive for foreign investment and
of the coastal provinces. 2023 was declared a “pivotal year for several GW are in the planning stages, including a 1 GW floating
deployment of renewables” by the National Energy Agency, with plant whilst construction commenced on a 4 GW system - 2024
the annual target of 160 GW well and truly met. should see some significant capacity additions. Malaysia added
0.7 GW for a cumulative total of 3.4 GW. In Pakistan, large volumes
Outside of the IEA-PVPS network, the largest market in terms of modules (over 7 GW according to some sources) were imported
of installations and potential is India. Given the population of the in 2023, with approximately 1.3 GW installed – a series of tenders
country, its potential is on a level with China, (or more, given the to equip government buildings were run, as well as a 600 MW
need for electrification). After a slow 2020 at just 4.4 GW due to a competitive tender. Bangladesh added a 275 MW utility-scale
series of administrative issues and difficulties, the market picked system and gave approval for over 1.5 GW as it improved access
up in 2021 (13 GW) and 2022 (18 GW) and continued in 2023 for foreign ownership. Textile manufacturers have begun equipping
adding 13.0 GW of grid connected PV (revised from the IEA PVPS premises both in Pakistan and Bangladesh to meet their client’s
Snapshot publication in April 2024). The annual India market share climate targets, in what may be the beginning of a new trend in
of utility-scale PV was identical in 2023 and 2022 at over 75%. commercial and industrial systems. In Indonesia, several hundred
Over 50 GW of tenders were called in 2023, and many of these MW were commissioned, including a 192 MW floating PV system,
were for solar+storage, technology neutral or hybrid systems. The ahead of a planned expansion to 500 MW.
distributed market rose slightly but is still far behind the deployment
of utility-scale PV; off grid systems represent considerable volumes
for a range of applications.

28
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

FIGURE 2.14: EVOLUTION OF PV INSTALLATIONS IN ASIA PACIFIC PER SEGMENT

100

90

80

70

60

% 50

40

30

20

10

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Grid-connected Distributed Grid-connected Centralised

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

EUROPE
Europe led the development of PV for many years, adding a
distributed segment, pulled by growing adoption of residential,
large proportion of the world’s capacity through the period 2000
commercial and industrial self-consumption sparked by the high
to 2012 to reach 70% of cumulative capacity in 2012. The steep
electricity prices of 2022. Cumulative capacity across Europe
price drops from 2009 to 2012, mostly due to the ramping up
reached 63.3 GW, up in absolute value from 42.4 GW in 2022,
of Chinese manufacturing capacity, had significant impacts on
but slipping to 14% of the global market, down from 17.5%. The
European markets. Very fast development of PV over short
cumulative capacity in Europe is now 305.2 GW.
periods of times (“PV booms”) led to a demonstrated opposition
from many stakeholders from the traditional energy sector, with It is important to distinguish the European Union and its countries,
different mechanisms resulting in declining markets in several which benefit from a common regulatory framework for part of
countries. From 2013 to 2017, the growth of European PV the energy market, and other European countries which have their
installations slowed significantly whilst there was rapid growth in own energy regulations and are not part of the European Union.
the rest of the world, mainly in Asia and the Americas. In addition,
several countries implemented measures to decrease the cost of Whilst most European countries used Feed-in Tariff schemes to start
support mechanisms for PV installations by retroactively changing developing PV, the movement to self-consumption (or variants) for
the remuneration levels or by adding taxes. This phenomenon distributed PV is accelerating while tenders and PPA’s become
happened mostly in Europe, where the fast development of PV the standard for utility-scale PV. These trends are not unique to
took place before other regions of the world: Spain, Italy, Czech Europe, but self-consumption developed faster here than in other
Republic, Belgium, France and others took some measures with locations, no doubt due to the high electricity consumption prices.
a consequent impact on the confidence of financial backers, The development of collective and delocalized self-consumption is
developers and prosumers. also accelerating in EU countries where regulatory frameworks are
catching up to market demands1.
The situation improved gradually in most countries and PV
1. See the IEA PVPS Task 14 paper “Self-consumption of electricity produced with
installations rose in Europe through the early 2020’s. Since then, photovoltaic systems in apartment buildings - Update of the situation in various IEA PVPS
most European markets have grown each year – especially in the countries”

29
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

PV DEVELOPMENT PER REGION / CONTINUED

.................................................................................................................

BIPV has been incentivized in Europe more than in any other part targets. Merchant utility-scale PV developed in Spain, Germany
of the world in the past but remains a niche market after several and France initially with more recent projects in Romania, - and
GW of installations. Simplified BIPV seems to develop well in some could take a significant market share in a near future, along with
countries and is likely to increase, always as a niche market, with a PPA and corporate PPA’s whose market shares continue to grow.
slow deployment by different countries of mandatory solar of some In general, PV development in Europe continued to be dynamic
sort in building regulations as a response to ambitious climate over 2023 as China’s manufacturing overcapacity is targeting the
more open European market, rather than the USA and India.

FIGURE 2.15: EVOLUTION OF PV INSTALLATIONS IN EUROPE PER SEGMENT

100

90

80

70

60

% 50

40

30

20

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Grid-connected Distributed Grid-connected Centralised

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

EUROPEAN UNION Market split between centralised and distributed generation varies
At the end of 2023, the total installed PV power capacity in the from country to country; the European markets with more than
European Union had reached 273.7 GW, or 90% of the capacity in 0.5 GW centralised PV where utility-scale PV is a market driver
Europe. As in the wider European market, residential, commercial are Spain, the Netherlands, Hungary and Bulgaria; on the opposite
and industrial rooftops are the most important segment, with 61% end, more than a dozen countries with over 0.5 GW of new
of new capacity additions (up from 57% in 2022). The market in 2023 distributed capacity were driven by the distributed market – most
was largely influenced by the remnants of the electricity market notably, Germany, Italy, Poland, France and Austria.
price spikes of late 2022 and the aggressive pricing of modules as
manufacturing capacity in China increased significantly. Fourteen The Netherlands continued to lead in terms of installed capacity
countries installed more than 1 GW, with Germany heading the list per capita in the EU with 1288 Wp. The number of EU countries
(15.0 GW), followed by Spain (8.9GW), Italy (5.3 GW), Poland (4.9 that had a penetration rate above the European Union average,
GW), the Netherlands (4.8 GW), France (4.0 GW) and Austria (2.6 now 488 Wp/capita, doubled from six to twelve – with five above
GW). Belgium, Sweden, Hungary, Greece, Portugal, Bulgaria and 700 Wp per capita: Germany (974 Wp), Belgium (842 Wp), Spain
Romania all installed between 1 GW and 2 GW of new capacity. (806 Wp) and Austria (700 Wp) and an additional five above the
EU average.

30
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

Outside of the IEA-PVPS network, UK was a growth market with In Middle East and Africa countries, the development of PV remains
1.3 GW in 2023, nearly double the 2022 value. The country had modest compared to the larger markets, especially in the African
16.0 GW of PV at the end of the year 2023 and awarded 1.9 GW countries. However, almost all countries saw a small development
of capacity in tenders last year, expected to come online through of PV in the last years and some of them a significant increase.
2025 to 2028, pushing the utility segment to the front. Switzerland There is a clear trend in most countries to include PV in energy
continued to expand with 1.6 GW installed, once again, almost all planning, to set national targets and to prepare the regulatory
rooftop systems. framework to accommodate PV.

FIGURE 2.16: EVOLUTION OF PV INSTALLATIONS IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST PER SEGMENT

100

90

80

70

60
%
50

40

30
Grid-connectedDistributed
20

10
Grid-connectedCentralised

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

MIDDLE EAST Bahrain, Jordan, Oman and the United Arab Emirates have
With high irradiation, the Middle East is amongst one of the most or are defining targets for renewable and solar energy for the
competitive places for PV installations, with PPAs granted through coming years. Conditions are slowly changing for distributed PV,
tendering processes among the lowest in the world, building on with net-metering being proposed in some countries such as in
excellent irradiation levels. In 2023, several large-scale systems Türkiye, Egypt, Dubai where the upper limit was lowered in 2023,
came online, bringing the annual capacity up to 7.5 GW, well above Bahrain, Jordan (transitioning to net billing in 2024), and FiT or
last year’s 5.5 GW. Three countries in the region added 1.9 GW in other mechanisms in Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, with plans
2023: Saudi Arabia (for a cumulative total of just 2.9 GW), Türkiye, to introduce similar schemes in Qatar, and Morocco. The UAE is
who reached the region’s highest cumulative capacity of 14.4 GW, facilitating the connection of distributed generation to the network
and the UAE (cumulative capacity of 7.1 GW). Israel maintained to help relieve peak loads. Türkiye is looking to sustainable building
its market at 1.1 GW for a total of 5.7 GW, with the other regional mandates to promote distributed solar. Another trend in the fast-
markets trailing. developing region is the willingness for governments to develop
In the region, energy prices are often supported by government brand new cities or neighbourhoods, which aim at becoming
spending, which limited the ability of PV to compete for years, showcases of renewable energies. This was the case for Masdar
however, countries such as Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, City (UAE) or Spark and Neom (Saudi Arabia).

31
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

PV DEVELOPMENT PER REGION / CONTINUED

...............................................................................................................

For centralised PV, tenders are an integral part of the plans for Africa is by far the smallest regional market, with just an estimated
PV development in the short and long term in the region, with 20 GW of cumulative capacity installed, of which over 3.7 GW was
government and state-owned organisations tendering for single installed in 20231. South Africa is the largest market, with 3.0 GW
site or multi-site projects as procurement exercises. Examples in of new capacity in 2023 – of which 2.6 GW was distributed - to
2023 include Saudi Arabia (3.7 GW in the 5th round of its NREP). reach a cumulative capacity of 7.5 GW. Whilst other countries have
Morocco called for 400 MW of solar+storage for Noor III and nascent commercial and industrial segments, volumes remain low
Tunisia called tenders for 1 GW. Projects for solar powered green – the 30 MW Gorou Banda Solar Power plant was inaugurated in
ammonia or hydrogen are underway in Jordan, Egypt and the Niger, Zambia saw a 33 MW plant come online with plans for over
UAE (the UAE is looking to green the steel industry). In parallel, 2 GW more, and tenders for a 30 MW solar+storage plant in Eritrea
plans for a 10 GW metallurgical silicon, polysilicon, cell and module and 30 MW floating PV in Kenya were launched. Financing for a
manufacturing plant in Saudi Arabia have been initiated . 50 MW system in Sierra Leone was confirmed.
AFRICA Large-scale systems remain a main contributor, but the commercial
The African market is dynamic but difficult to follow, with market and industrial segment is slowly gaining momentum and maturity
reports diverging in terms of capacity, depending on their sources. as companies seek to hedge against future rises in electricity prices
On top of weak reporting standards and capabilities in many by generating their own power.
African countries, probably significant volumes of off grid micro
and small-scale PV seem to be unreported to authorities. COVID Large scale systems for low-carbon hydrogen projects are
impacted growth in Africa, and the shrunken market from 2019 underway or under discussion, primarily looking to produce
to 2021 resulted in a break in the previous positive trend of PV ammonia for fertiliser, both strengthening Africa’s food security
development and rural electrification, as fiscal resources were and taking advantage of the excellent irradiation available in many
diverted to food and primary necessities. African countries. Experts are confident that the production of
highly competitive H2 can be reached.

1. According to the African Solar Industry Association.

32
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

The question of African power infrastructure and markets is Support policies and facilitating regulation are more than ever
essential since many countries have a small, centralized power necessary to accelerate uptake ahead of the expected increase in
demand, sometimes below 500 MW. In this respect, the question energy consumption and electricity access due to a multitude of
is not only to connect PV to the grid but also to reinforce the factors including population growth and socioeconomic dynamics
electricity grid infrastructure and interconnection with neighbouring (increases in the energy consumption per capita for those countries
countries. with high electrification rates), decarbonisation of electricity
production, electrification of industry and transport, production of
Mini-grids are an important tool for rural electrification, and a
green hydrogen…
series of projects were announced or developed in 2023 (Angola,
Botswana, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, Somalia, for example). This Africa is already facing severe climate change consequences
segment is still very dependent on grants and subsidies while it tries including water stress and reduced food production, so emerging
to identify solutions that will lead to pure commercial bankability. dual usages such as agrivoltaics and floating PV are potential tools
to increase food resources and protect water resources whilst
One of the main difficulties for these segments is attracting private
producing electricity.
investment (with investors wary of the risk levels and upfront
cost). However, new renewable energy markets are showing
greater appeal to international and local investors - and the most
competitive segment for the development of solar in Africa,
especially in remote areas i.e. PV plants to replace or complement
existing diesel generators, is of interest to investors.

Early solar PV development was supported by government and

donor-supported rural electrification with micro and small systems,
but the transition to a more market-based development can now
be observed. Pay-as-you-go models are used to bypass financing
difficulties for residential consumers whilst different pricing formats
exist to foster access to clean and reliable electricity. Off-grid
PV applications, such as water pumping, are expected to play a
growing role in bringing affordable power to consumers.

33
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

PV DEVELOPMENT PER REGION / CONTINUED

...............................................................................................................

TABLE 2.6: 2023 PV MARKETS STATISTICS IN DETAIL

COUNTRY 2023 ANNUAL CAPACITY (MW) 2023 CUMULATIVE CAPACITY (MW)

DECENTRALIZED CENTRALIZED TOTAL DECENTRALIZED CENTRALIZED TOTAL

AUSTRALIA 3 182 972 4 153 23 165 11 356 34 522

AUSTRIA 2 295 308 2 603 5 832 563 6 395

BELGIUM 1 621 185 1 806 9 533 422 9 955

CANADA 99 724 823 2 337 5 003 7 340

CHINA 96 290 180 886 277 176 255 980 435 261 691 241

DENMARK 321 167 487 2 031 1 879 3 910

FINLAND 302 16 318 959 49 1 008

FRANCE 2 587 1 374 3 961 12 701 10 963 23 664

GERMANY 10 357 4 648 15 005 63 916 18 389 82 305

ISRAEL 830 320 1 150 3 472 2 185 5 657

ITALY 4 399 856 5 255 21 060 9 259 30 319

JAPAN 3 328 2 972 6 300 54 517 36 849 91 366

SOUTH KOREA 514 2 792 3 306 3 675 23 944 27 619

MALAYSIA 266 444 710 1 289 2 100 3 390

MOROCCO 693 35 728 1 679 35 1 714

NETHERLANDS 1 964 2 824 4 788 9 463 13 574 23 037

NORWAY 299 4 303 653 4 657

PORTUGAL 775 509 1 285 1 522 2 300 3 822

SOUTH AFRICA 2 600 365 2 965 5 205 2 299 7 504

SPAIN 2 047 6 940 8 987 8 346 30 640 38 986

SWEDEN 1 611 77 1 688 3 945 270 4 215

SWITZERLAND 1 641 0 1 641 6 306 68 6 375

THAILAND 1 103 3 484 4 587 2 380 6 620 9 002

TÜRKIYE 1 027 840 1 867 11 309 3 084 14 393

USA 9 530 24 345 33 875 60 096 117 248 177 344

IEA PVPS 149 681 236 086 385 766 571 372 734 366 1 305 739

BRAZIL 8 346 4 100 12 446 26 330 11 487 37 817

INDIA 2 995 10 025 13 020 15 771 106 92 645

NON-IEA PVPS 39 346 30 890 70 244 156 529 179 941 336 218

TOTAL 189 027 266 975 456 010 727 900 914 307 1 641 956

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

34
 three
POLICY FRAMEWORK

As the cost environment of PV changed over the past two years, volatile electricity market costs and higher financing costs.
from the high costs yet high competitivity of mid-2022 to the
In new markets, support for distributed PV often begins with net
plummeting module costs but lesser competitivity of late 2023,
metering, before setting feed-in tariffs, and finally ends in some
the importance of policy support even in conditions of market
form of net billing where excess electricity after self-consumption
competitivity has become increasingly apparent.
is bought at a utility or government-set rate; this rate can be
From the late 90’s onwards, the development of PV was pushed lower than wholesale electricity costs (to discourage excess)
by various support mechanisms – from feed-in tariffs, direct or benefit from feed-in tariffs at premium rates. Direct subsidies
subsidies, and tax credits to competitive calls for tender and and tax credits remain present across the world, although direct
feed-in premiums. The initial goal was generally to compensate subsidy policies tend to be fragile due to their high upfront costs
for the lack of competitivity by reducing the gap between the cost for governments – and are increasingly reserved for stimulating
of electricity from PV and the cost of electricity from conventional specific market segments.
sources. More recently, the rapid reduction in PV costs has meant
For residential and commercial markets, in many countries self-
that competitiveness is no longer a problem in several countries
consumption has become the model of choice with regulations and
and across different segments (for more detail, see Chapter 6,
support measures being adapted to accommodate this. Whilst in
competitiveness of PV electricity).
some competitive markets support mechanisms have been stopped
Support mechanisms for centralized PV are increasingly becoming or adapted to encourage emerging segments such as building
additional to market remuneration with competitive tenders Integrated PV or AgriPV, climate imperatives, the search for energy
operating as guarantees for a minimal remuneration after taking sovereignty, and ambitious PV development goals mean that other
into account market sales, pushing the development of power countries are stepping up to accelerate deployment by increasing
purchase agreements (PPA) and market sales (merchant PV). support budgets or support levels. Many different indirect policies
These Contract for Difference schemes demonstrated their ability to encourage or facilitate PV such as mandatory solar on buildings
to funnel profits from high electricity market costs back to the and car parks and support mechanisms addressing permitting
government in 2022. When PV is so competitive that no financial complexity and costs, facilitated access to electricity markets, or
incentives are required, large-scale systems are moving directly to grid access policies for prosumers are being used across the world
PPAs, with a trend to diminish contract length – inevitably, many to accelerate PV deployment.
PV systems operating initially in these private contracts will end up
Where complete competitivity is not yet present, support schemes
with electricity sales on wholesale markets (merchant PV). After a
are evolving according to market maturity, and investor confidence.
series of undersubscribed tenders in 2022 due to the attractively
Therefore, targeted financial incentives might still be needed for
high market electricity prices of 2022, tenders in some European
some years to overcome costs or investment barriers in specific
countries were largely oversubscribed in 2023 as the stability of
countries. The electricity market volatility of the past few years
guaranteed remuneration and (easier) financing was balanced with

35
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

has demonstrated that support mechanisms need a certain level FEED-IN TARIFFS AND PREMIUMS IN OPEN ACCES
of agility, and that competitivity can be insufficient for financing SCHEMES
long-term project viability.
Predefined feed-in tariffs remain an important tool for ensuring
Where market volumes are strong, a large part of new policies are roll-out of PV in the distributed segment, and whilst many existing
focused on self-consumption schemes, citizen communities, and schemes continued through 2023, others were discontinued. Feed-
innovative forms of collective and delocalized self-consumption. in tariffs work on a simple principle – electricity produced by the
Policies supporting self-consumption might be considered as non- PV system and injected into the grid is paid at a predefined price
financial incentives since they set up the regulatory environment to and guaranteed during a fixed period (often 10 or 20 years). FiT
allow consumers to become prosumers or an energy community. are paid in general by official bodies or utilities and were set-up
to stimulate local PV market segments. Generally, only available
The electrification of usages is an important factor in the energy for small or small to medium-sized systems, the FiT can be fixed
transition, and the sale of battery storage, heat pumps and EV are over the contract period, or be indexed to inflation or some other
increasing rapidly for residential and commercial users, whilst big indicator, and it can be made available for systems that inject the
batteries are enabling fast transitions in areas with high penetration entirety of their electricity into the grid or, increasingly, only the
rates of renewable energies and increasingly saturated grids. In excess after self-consumption (also called net billing). In some
parallel, the development of “green” hydrogen projects powered countries, system owners may be able to choose between total
by solar and other renewable electricity continues stronger than injection or the injection of excess after self-consumption and
before as the fragility of gas supply pushes governments to may even be allowed to migrate from one model to another. FiT
accelerate support for alternatives. have demonstrated their efficiency as drivers for the development
Taxes and the financing of distribution and transmission grids are of residential markets and remain a tool for incentivising self-
still animating the debate, shaping the regulatory framework and consumption by managing excess generation without batteries.
impacting the business models and the price for PV electricity. Amongst the IEA PVPS member countries that had a government
(national, federal or state) mandated open access FiT scheme
PV MARKET DRIVERS AND SUPPORT in 2023, most cover the residential sector, (Austria, Canada,
SCHEMES China (ended), France, Germany, Greece (new), Japan, Portugal,
............................................................................................................ Switzerland, Thailand, USA), sometimes extending to the
commercial and industrial segments (Austria, France, Germany,
Japan). With increased competitiveness, a few countries have
The question of market drivers is a complex one since the market or are phasing out government-based FiT schemes (Australia,
is always driven by a combination of several regulations and where utilities set net billing feed-in tariffs as part of their customer
incentives. acquisition and loyalty strategies, some states have set minimum
ACCESS TO SUPPORT MECHANISMS AND REMUNERATION rates). With the large drop in price experienced over 2023 for
MODELS. modules, some countries (France, California, New York and Indiana
Access to support mechanisms can be through open-access in the USA ), once again adjusted feed-in tariff levels to take into
schemes (either unlimited or capped in volume or time, generally account the changing profitability of PV.
with a series of mandatory requirements relating to system size Increasingly countries are either dropping FiT (in 2023, South Korea)
or installation type, sometimes associated with minimal installer or reserving them for excess injections after self-consumption (net
qualifications or product certification) or through competitive billing FiT) as grid parity is reached. Depending on the country
tenders. Remuneration models tend to include feed-in tariffs (FiT) specifics, FiT can be defined at the national level and at the regional,
or premiums (FiP) – sometimes for all the electricity generated from county or city level (Australia, Canada, China, USA etc.) with some
a system, sometimes for excess generation after self-consumption regions opting for it and others not, or with different characteristics.
(net billing), green certificates or direct subsidies in open access FiT can also be granted by utilities themselves (Australia, USA,
schemes, whilst tenders are seeing a shift away from feed-in tariffs China (Hong Kong)), outside of the policy framework to increase
to feed-in premiums and contracts for difference (CfD) – but also to customer fidelity.
tenders for electricity or generation capacity procurement. Power
purchase agreements between generators and consumers can be Feed-in premiums (FiP) are premiums paid on top of the wholesale
modelled on any of these mechanisms. electricity market price. Fixed and variable premiums can be
considered. Sweden and Austria are using a fixed FiP for small
decentralized systems – in the case of Sweden, it is managed
through tax credits per kWh generated.

Defining FiT or FiP levels that adequately incentivise PV without

36
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

overcompensating can be a delicate task, particularly when costs Italy, Japan. It can also be associated with time of use rates or
are volatile or subject to steep declines. Entities bearing the cost low rates to discourage sending excess electricity to the grid, for
of FiTs (governments or utilities) will generally seek adjustment example encouraging investment in battery storage (Australia
mechanisms to ensure that market booms do not lead to cost and California (USA)). As grids in some parts of the world become
blowouts and/or over-compensation, a lesson learned from past more congested, or as distributed solar outpaces consumption,
market booms that occurred in countries such as Spain in 2008, curtailment policies are put in place that no longer guarantee
France in 2009, Czech Republic in 2010, Italy in 2011, Belgium in access to the network at all times (Australia, South Korea).
2012, to a certain extent in China in 2015, 2016 and 2017, and to
Although net metering is being replaced in historical markets,
a lesser extent to other countries. These booms strained budgets
countries such as Malaysia or Ecuador introduced net metering for
and negatively affected the public perception of PV, and most of
residential PV owners recently. Several emerging PV countries have
these markets took years to recover and reexperience growth.
implemented net metering schemes in recent years (Chile, Jordan,
To keep market development stable or financially viable for cost UAE (Dubai), Morocco and Tunisia). While the self-consumption
bearers, adjustment mechanisms can include periodic industry and net metering schemes are based on an energy compensation
negotiations, inflation, and market growth indexation. of electricity flows, other systems exist. Italy attributes different
prices to consumed electricity and the electricity fed into the grid.
Many countries adopted the principle of decreasing FiT levels over
time or introduced limited budgets, building on the experience of a DIRECT SUBSIDIES, REBATES AND TAX BREAKS
consistently reducing price curve for PV systems. In Germany, the Direct subsidies remain in place in many countries. Most of the
level of the FiT can be adapted monthly to reduce the profitability time they cover only a part of the total installation cost. PV is
of PV investments if the market is growing faster than the target characterized by limited maintenance costs, no fuel costs but high
decided by the government. In Japan Fit are adjusted regularly – upfront investment and this has led some countries to put policies
and in 2023 were increased for commercial-sized rooftop systems in place that reduce the upfront investment to incentivize PV. Direct
to encourage this specific segment. In France, the FiT decrease is subsidies were implemented in the early phase of PV development
dependent on both installation rates and economic indicators. The in countries such as Austria, Australia, Canada, Finland, Italy, Japan,
economic indicators and government intervention also allow for South Korea, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden just to mention a few.
increased or decreased FiT if economic conditions (such as cost
Incentives can be granted by a wide variety of authorities or
increases or booming investment) require it.
sometimes by utilities themselves. They can be unique or add up
INCENTIVIZED SELF-CONSUMPTION to each other. Their lifetime is generally quite short, with frequent
Self-consumption, supported by different mechanisms such as policy changes, at least to adapt the financial parameters to
net-metering, net-billing, premiums on self-consumed electricity current project economics and political priorities. Next to central
or investment subsidies is becoming the norm in an increasing governments, regional states or provinces can propose either the
number of countries. Various forms of support to self-consumption main incentive or some additional ones. Municipalities are more
schemes exist, from the historically deployed “net metering” used and more involved in renewable energy development and can
to develop the market of small-scale PV installations on buildings offer additional advantages. In some cases, utilities are proposing
that were adopted in a large number of countries, although with specific deployment schemes to their own customers, generally
different definitions of what, precisely, net metering meant (the in the absence of national or local incentives, but sometimes to
same vocabulary can imply different regulations and different complement them.
remuneration models. The best example is in the USA, with the
In most countries, this support mechanism has not demonstrated its
wording “net-metering” being used for different self-consumption
ability to support and accelerate PV development over the long term
schemes in different states).
and was progressively replaced by FiTs, although not completely
Genuine “net-metering” which offers credits at the same rate phased out everywhere. However, because of the psychological
as consumption for PV electricity injected into the grid, has attractiveness of direct upfront subsidies for the residential sector
previously supported market development in Belgium, Canada, (depending on local culture they can be more attractive to end
Denmark, Hungary, the Netherlands, Portugal, South Korea, the users than deferred payments through FiT), some countries have
USA, and even Pakistan but such policies continue being replaced continued to use direct subsidies alone (Flanders in Belgium, South
by net billing, self-consumption policies encouraging real-time Korea, Norway, Poland, Italy, Switzerland) or in conjunction with
consumption of PV electricity (Poland, Arkansas, North Carolina, other support mechanisms (France, for self-consumption with net
Idaho, and Hawaii in the USA in 2023 alone). billing), Australia, Austria, Germany, Greece for PV with storage.
Switzerland gives bonuses on top of its direct subsidies depending
Net billing can be incentivized with a feed-in tariff (or feed-in on the size, inclination, and altitude of systems. South Korea
premium added on top of the spot price) for the excess PV continues to provide direct subsidies in different programs for
electricity fed into the grid. This is for example the case in France,

37
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

PV MARKET DRIVERS AND SUPPORT SCHEMES / CONTINUED

............................................................................................................................................................

residential systems (since 2004) and building applied systems on COMPETITIVE TENDERS
commercial buildings (with priority given to BIPV systems). Competitive tenders are used to control the volume, budget,
location and type of photovoltaic systems that could benefit from
Governments have also used direct subsidies to encourage very
support mechanisms. Competitive tenders have been adopted in
specific segments on an experimental basis - Japan joined Austria,
many countries around the world, with the clear aim of increasing
Finland with subsidies for agricultural systems and sometimes
the competitiveness of PV electricity. They can be run by state
systems on other specific land usages. The USA has a diversity
organizations or utilities looking to secure increased supply and
of state and local subsidies for solar installation, often targeted
security of supply on one hand and reduce supply costs on the
at increasing deployment in low-income and/or historically
other.
marginalized communities (South Korea also). The landmark
Inflation Reduction Act also included increases to grant programs In Europe the Netherlands and France were early adopters of
targeting both rural deployment and deployment in indigenous competitive tenders, running them as early as 2011/2012. By 2018,
communities, as well as creating several new grant programs uptake was more widespread with roughly 10 countries running
incentivizing deployment in historically marginalized communities. tenders (including Germany, Poland), doubling up to at least 20
Different regions in Italy have set up capital investment subsidies European countries having trialed or validated tender schemes
in 2023; one region has launched a scheme that should be self- since then, from Scandinavian countries to the Baltic states
sustaining for families in energy poverty situations that cover down to Mediterranean rim countries. In the past 5 years, large
installation and maintenance costs, with self-consumed electricity volumes were awarded in tenders in Germany, Italy, Poland, the
free for the residents and excess electricity sales feeding the Netherlands, the UK, Spain and France
financing fund. Many countries have capital subsidies for local
government authorities installing PV (Italy, Japan South Korea, Their use worldwide is increasingly used to stimulate and regulate
some states in the USA, California, New York, Nevada, Illinois, etc) medium to large-scale systems across the world, either tendering
– often with conditions mandating the use of building integrated access to support mechanisms, and land or electricity procurement
PV. contracts. They are also used to stimulate investment in specific
types of systems, for example floating PV or, more commonly in
Tax credits have been used for a long time around the world, either the past few years, agrivoltaics. A European Commission report
on their own or associated with FiT, direct subsidies or rebates. “on the performance of support for electricity from renewable
(as early as 2005 in France, USA), and spread to a large variety of sources granted by means of tendering procedures in the Union”
countries, ranging from Belgium and Canada to Japan and others. published in November 2022 concludes ”that introduction of tenders
Tax credits can be applied to equipment costs, labour costs or, for renewables was a clear success for the European Union” and
more rarely, even electricity (Sweden). that they “reduced the support cost significantly compared to
administrative schemes, enhanced the deployment of renewable
Tax credits have been introduced (or re-introduced) in the past
capacities and provided a solid framework for technological
few years including in Germany (2022), Italy (2023), Sweden
improvement”.
(2015, 2021). Tax credits can be open to individuals (USA, Italy,
Switzerland, Germany, Finland, Sweden) or commercial entities Initially, the first remuneration models in tenders were feed-in
(USA, Switzerland, Germany, Sweden (limited to small systems)), tariffs (FiT) where remuneration is based on a fixed price per
and operate on a yearly or multi-year basis. Tax credits remain kWh, and whilst they are still used in some countries for some
a popular tool that is relatively easy to adjust (for example in segments, particularly commercial and industrial systems on
the USA in 2022 as part of the Inflation Reduction Act). Storage buildings (Japan, Italy, Egypt), governments are steadily replacing
installed with, or added to existing PV can also be eligible for tax them with feed in premiums or with Contract for Difference (CfD).
credits (USA, Austria and Sweden). Occasionally, tax incentives A Feed-in Premium (FiP) is a fixed premium that is paid on top of
can be increased for low-income households (USA, UK) or limited the variable electricity wholesale market price, leading to variable
to self-consumption systems (Spain), and for specific requirements remuneration. In 2023, Austria, transitioned their tendered feed-
such as local module production (Italy, USA). in tariffs to feed-in premiums, joining Germany, the Netherlands
who used this mechanism already. Japan uses both Fit and FiP in
Elsewhere, exemption from import duties for PV modules can also
its tenders, depending on system size. A Contract for Difference
stimulate markets with little or no local manufacturing (Pakistan,
scheme (UK, Greece, France, Italy, Hungary, Australia and Spain)
Benin, Uganda, Mali, amongst others).
is a FiP that ensures constant remuneration by covering the
difference between the expected remuneration and the electricity

38
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

market price. Tenders have also been run with some or all of the specific tenders or tender volumes for agrivoltaics France, Israel,
remuneration based on green certificates (Australia) or some other Luxemburg in the past, and Italy in 2023). Tenders for floating PV
form of “green” bonus on top of market remuneration (Flanders, included Portugal in 2022, India, Philippines, South Africa in 2023.
Belgium). It can also be used as a driver for innovation, allowing higher
remuneration levels for innovative systems not quite ready for the
In March 2023, the European Commission’s proposed revision market, as used in France, Germany.
of the EU’s internal electricity market design required “the use of
two-way contracts for difference (CfDs) for new investments in low Environmental or local content constraints are introduced to give an
carbon generation where public funding is needed” as a means of advantage to local companies or to favour a better environmental
curbing excessive generator revenues in times of volatile electricity footprint of the products. Reserved volumes or segment bonuses
markets. promote specific technologies or impose additional constraints
such as local manufacturing to boost the local industry. In several
In 2023, in the Middle East and North Africa, competitive tenders countries, a local content parameter has been discussed and acts
(open or for specific sites) were issued in the UAE, Israel, Algeria, as an additional primary or secondary key in the selection criteria
Morocco, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia (3.7 GW) as well as Eritrea, (India, Malaysia, South Africa, Türkiye). This type of requirement
Voted in May 2024, the European Commission’s Net aims at enabling the development of local solar module
Zero Industry Act (NZIA) opens the path for support manufacturing. Türkiye, for instance, applies a premium for local
schemes that “promote high sustainability and resilience content, on top of the normal FiT.
contribution(s) […] by either providing additional Tenders have mostly been used to frame PV development and
proportionate financial compensation, or by conditioning PV costs on a national level. For regulators, this implies defining
the eligibility” (Art 28.1). Non-price criteria can be a maximum capacity and selecting the cheapest suitable plants
integrated into competitive tenders and auctions, and to develop. However, they can be further developed and used to
the resilience criteria allows governments to impose a guide towards larger, long-term roadmaps on power capacity and
diversification of sources of components to be used in a segment development. By planning smartly with transmission grid
PV system to avoid dependency on a single supplier or operators, tenders can allow the development of specific capacities
suppliers of a single country. This criteria can be used to for defined technologies, optimize the grid and anticipate the energy
actively select for local content. transition as a tool to support local industry. They can also be tools
to build public acceptance by setting criteria that satisfy public
Botswana, Mauritius, Namibia and South Africa (1.8 GW). In some and social acceptability guidelines – such as reserving support to
cases, the tenders called for storage also (Panama). In North specific types of land usage.
America the USA ran tenders at state or utility levels. In Latin
Other elements that have been trialled include technology-neutral
America, Argentina, Chile, Columbia used tenders – with some
tenders. In this case, PV is put in competition with other generation
significant volumes awarded, for example 5.7 GW in Columbia; in
sources. Some countries such as Canada, France, Germany, Spain
the Caribbean, Jamaica did too. In Asia, many countries continued
and Italy have experimented with mixed auctions based on solar
with their tender schemes including India, Uzbekistan, Sri Lanka,
and wind in parallel with some technology-specific tenders.
but also the Philippines, Japan and South Korea . Australia, in the
Pacific has tenders run by states and utilities. In 2023, in the Middle East and North Africa, competitive tenders
TRENDS IN TENDERS (open or for specific sites) were issued in the UAE, Israel, Algeria,
As a tool to control and guide towards the type of PV system Morocco, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia (3.7 GW) as well as Eritrea,
deemed desirable, governments have adopted new and continuing Botswana, Mauritius, Namibia and South Africa (1.8 GW). In some
trends in tenders that include selection criteria or bonuses for local cases, the tenders called for storage also (Panama). In North
content (Spain), types of land usages or for being installed on America the USA ran tenders at state or utility levels. In Latin
buildings (France, Luxemburg), carbon content/footprint (France, America, Argentina, Chile, Columbia used tenders – with some
South Korea). significant volumes awarded, for example 5.7 GW in Columbia; in
the Caribbean, Jamaica did too. In Asia, many countries continued
Tender specifications can be used to push the development of with their tender schemes including India, Uzbekistan, Sri Lanka,
specific market segments, whether it be in terms of size (between but also the Philippines, Japan and South Korea. Australia, in the
two thresholds, as in South Korea, France, Poland or in the type Pacific has tenders run by states and utilities.
of PV mounting with separate tenders or designated volumes
in tenders for PV on buildings and ground-mounted systems
(France, Germany, Switzerland, Moldova). There is a clear trend to

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COMPETITIVE TENDERS AND THE MARKET costed on expected module price drops, leaving these projects
Competitive tenders have driven the worldwide market, giving fragile and potentially unable to remain economically viable when
project developers the security of contracts backed by state confronted with rising costs as was the case over 2021/2022.
support mechanisms to invest in increasingly large volumes, and
providing governments with a tool to map and control solar energy Across all renewable energies, negative prices for tenders with FiP
capacity increases. mechanisms have also been seen in recent years; in these cases,
market sales or PPA’s provide the project remunerations whilst
Tendered prices in competitive tenders were steadily decreasing up the tenders framework provides other required keys such as grid
to 2021 when the downward price trend halted due to module price capacity, security for debt financing….
hikes resulting from a combination of COVID and demand impacts.
Since bidders must compete with one another, they tend to reduce Conversely, when module costs go up or market electricity prices
the bidding price to the minimum possible and shrink their margins. go up, upper ceilings on tendered prices can be insufficient (either
Developers with a large number of projects in previous tenders will because they are below required remuneration levels or because
have good visibility on price pressure and are most likely to be able they are less attractive than market prices). In this last case, for
to price their projects to winning bids. competitive tenders to remain attractive to project developers,
they must once again provide benefits that cannot be found on the
The past years have demonstrated how low the bids can go under market – state backing of long-term contracts is the most obvious
the constraint of competitive tenders. Low bids associated with advantage, pleasing both equity and debt participants, but also
FiT or CfD remuneration could be risky- many experts believe landowners.
such low bids are only possible with extremely low capital costs,
low component costs and reduced risk hedging. The shrinking There have been many changes in the photovoltaics competitivity
profit margins, especially in super-competitive tenders, could landscape over the past two years, from the rising costs in
become a threat to the long-term stability of some market actors, 2020/2021, to the significant drops in module prices in 2023 as
hence creating more market concentration. Because of strong electricity markets stabilised and market prices decreased. As a
competition, the most competitive (lowest) bids are also often consequence, the dynamics of project profitability have varied, as
has the attractivity of government-run tenders and PPA’s.

EU POLICY FRAMEWORK
In December 2018, the revised European Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) set a 32% renewable energy target by
2030, up from a target of 20% in 20201. In 2019 the European Green Deal was introduced, an action plan to boost the
efficient use of resources by moving to a clean, circular economy and to restore biodiversity and reduce pollution. A
pillar of the European Green Deal is a commitment to be climate neutral by 2050. In September 2020, the European
Commission proposed raising the 2030 climate targets aiming at a 55% GHG reduction by 2030. The accompanying impact
assessment2 showed that such an increase in the climate ambition is realistic and economically feasible. The 55% GHG
reduction target will require a share of renewable energy of approximately 38,5% according to the impact assessment.

In the European Union, solar energy and photovoltaics in particular were identified as one of the cornerstones of a rapid
and more ambitious deployment of renewable energy technologies in order to meet the climate-neutrality objective
in 2050 and a significant reduction of the EU’s dependence on imported fossil fuels. Although the currently proposed
measures include a strong component to diversify the source of fossil fuel imports, away from Russia, a path on how
to phase out entirely their use is not yet so clear. The full implementation of the “Fit for 55” proposals would lower the
Union’s gas consumption by 30%, still requiring over 200 bcm, by 2030.

In 2022, the European Commission published the REPowerEU Communication and the Solar Strategy Communication
respectively3,4.

1. European Commission, REPowerEU Communication, 08.03.2022, COM(2022) 108 final

2. European Commission, Solar Strategy Communication, 18.05.2022, COM(2022) 221 final
3. European Commission, REPowerEU Communication, 08.03.2022, COM(2022) 108 f
4. European Commission, Solar Strategy Communication, 18.05.2022, COM(2022) 221 final

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IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

REPowerEU aims to reduce net emissions by at least 55% by 2030 and the Solar Strategy called for an additional
photovoltaic capacity of 450 GWp between 2021 and 2030, which would mean a roughly fourfold increase of the
nominal capacity to over 720 GWp by 2030.

The European Solar Communication includes a number of building blocks to accelerate the deployment of PV in a
timely manner. The following initiatives have been developed as tools to reach the target outcome:

European Solar Rooftops Initiative

Utility scale deployment including multi use of land (e.g. agri-PV, floating-PV, PV on noise barriers, etc.)

Solar value for buildings, districts and cities

Preparing the energy network for the efficient distribution of solar energy

Establishment of a resilient supply chain

Supporting investments regarding EU PV manufacturing (de-risking, funding)

Enacted in June 2024, the Net-Zero Industry Act5 aims to create a favourable environment to scale up manufacturing
of net-zero industries in the EU. One of the identified strategic net-zero technologies is PV. A simplification of the
regulatory framework (permitting) for PV manufacturing and support for skills development are among the actions
included in the Act that aim to help increase the EU PV competitiveness.

5. Regulation (EU) 2024/1735 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 June 2024 on establishing a framework of measures for strengthening Europe’s net-zero
technology manufacturing ecosystem and amending Regulation (EU) 2018/1724 (Text with EEA relevance)

In this context, tenders have been under-subscribed (France, South TRADE OF GREEN CERTIFICATES AND SIMILAR SCHEMES
Africa in 2022, Japan, South Korea, Poland, Serbia in 2023) – for Green certificates and similar schemes based on Renewable
example, when market conditions were more attractive - under- Portfolio Standard (RPS) are only used in a few markets,
awarded when tendered rates were considered uncompetitive i.e. explained by the greater complexity of this type of scheme. Green
close to or over ceiling rates (France in 2020 and 2021 for some certificates with a set value can be issued within the framework
segments, Spain in 2022) or even over-subscribed where the of government or state support mechanisms (Belgium (residential
security of investment and low modules costs made them more systems), Australia, South Korea, Norway, UK). They can also be
attractive (in 2023: Argentina, France, Germany, the Luxembourg/ traded at market values between generators and utilities as part
Finland cross border tender, the Luxembourg agrivoltaic tender, of RPS obligations (USA - predominantly but not only utility-scale
UAE). systems). The regulatory approach commonly referred to as RPS
aims at promoting the development of renewable energy sources
In 2023 the lowest bids once again decreased, with Japan reaching by imposing a quota of RE sources. The authorities define a share
bids under 8 Yen/kWh (55 USD/MWh) for the first time. The most of electricity to be produced by renewable sources that all utilities
competitive bids in 2023 were in the UAE at 16.2 USD/MWh must adopt, either by producing themselves or by buying specific
(but ranging up to about double in India and more than triple in certificates on the market. When available, these certificates
Europe), compared to 26 USD/MWh in 2022 (India, South Africa, are sometimes called “green certificates” and allow renewable
Türkiye) and 60 USD/MWh (utility) to 90 USD/MWh (on buildings) electricity producers to get a variable remuneration for their
in Western Europe (Germany, France). electricity, based on the market price of these certificates.
Within this context, developers are comfortable looking to corporate Green certificates can also be bought to satisfy voluntary social
clients to sell their electricity (corporate PPA’s) (Germany, France, responsibility goals (in this case, most often Guarantees of Origin
Spain, USA), or even directly to electricity markets (merchant PV) (GO) are attached to electricity sold to consumers with a surcharge
(Australia, Croatia, Germany, Romania, Spain). for the guarantee). Their value can vary depending on the local
markets and how active they are – but the 2023 trend was to

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increased value. Some important markets include North America, guarantee scheme to support smaller actors for risk mitigation
UK. Depending on the local markets, trading GO’s may or may joining Spain and Norway who also have mechanisms in place.
not be cumulative with remuneration from government-financed Whilst PPA contracts are mostly medium to long-term (10 to 25
support mechanisms. years), the high electricity market prices in 2022 and early 2023
saw a surge in short-term (2 to 3 year) contracts as producers look
PV DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT FINANCIAL INCENTIVES
to the highest returns.
An increasing volume of the market became independent of
support schemes: this implies installations not financially supported In Europe, there was strong continued growth in the announcement
and developed outside of tenders or similar schemes. This is a sign of photovoltaic PPAs with both corporate and utility PPAs
of the PV market becoming highly competitive. The increase in increasing. In 2023, Spain and Germany lead the PPA market that
energy costs in 2021 and 2022, and specifically electricity prices, surpassed 10 GW in Europe, with active markets also in Denmark,
enhanced PV competitiveness in numerous countries. Whilst Finland, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, and the
electricity prices dropped over 2023, so too did module prices; in UK. Solar PPA volumes contracted slightly in the USA, although
parallel, consumers exposed to the volatile electricity market over this still estimated to represent nearly 50% of global PPA volumes.
the past years have increasingly turned to securing long-term In South America, an emerging market for PPA’s exists (over
supply contracts or generating their own electricity, financing PV 500MW in Brazil and 244 MW in Chile). The Asia-Pacific region had
outside of all support mechanisms. PPA growth in South Korea (x 10 compared to 2022), Australia
POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS (where resource mining and heavy industry account for roughly
Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are long-term private 1/3 of Corporate PPAs in 2023) and Japan (where electricity charge
contracts between a PV producer and one or several off-takers: increased and companies choose to select renewable energies)
consumers (Corporate PPA) or electricity resellers (PPA). While FiT but also Bangladesh, Philippines, Chinese Taipei and Thailand.
(or CfD, in the case of virtual PPA’s) are paid in general by official Countries that have been working towards structural changes to
bodies or utilities, commercial PPAs are contracts between the PV electricity markets to allow PPAs or corporate PPA’s (Vietnam,
plant owner and an off-taker for the electricity produced, over a Malaysia) were good to go in 2023. In the MENA region,
defined period. Such contracts guarantee a certain level of revenue Whilst many PPA developers and buyers are industry specific,
and are increasingly popular for unsubsidized PV because the cost there is also a wide range of global energy players present, as
per kWh is negotiated between the parties. If built on a FiT model, discussed in Chapter 4.
in times of high electricity prices (2021, 2022), the PV producer
has an advantage if the contract was negotiated in times of lower MERCHANT PV
prices. PPAs imply sourcing of solar electricity without necessarily Merchant-based PV plants are expected to play a growing role in
being physically connected to the power plant - a solution favoured the development of the PV market. They are PV plants where the
more and more by large companies willing to decrease their GHG business model relies on sales on electricity markets. The design
emissions through corporate PPA’s. In the case of virtual PPAS’s of the electricity market plays an important role in the emergence
operating on a CfD, the off-taker pays the generator (or receives of this type of business model as the market should provide both
from the generator) the difference between the agreed-on price short-term and long-term incentives. Whilst several countries
and the price sold on the electricity market sales; in this case, the experimented with merchant PV as long ago as early 2010
off-taker carries the risk burden for the generator. Initially deployed (unsuccessfully in Chile, for example), more recently competitive
in the wind industry, solar PPA’s have outstripped wind PPA’s LCOE and the higher electricity prices on the European market in
in volume in 2023. PPAs have continued to grow in 2023 after 2022/early 2023 encouraged project developers to investigate this
strong growth in 2022 and 2021. Major information technology option more seriously – it is now an option that has been used in
companies, online retailers and industry are significant clients for Croatia, Italy, Germany, Norway, Portugal, Romania, Sweden and
virtual CPPA’s whilst mining companies are significant clients for Spain, (where it is expected to become as common as PPA’s in
PPA’s from systems directly connected to consumption sites. The the near future) , as well as in the Philippines, Australia (a 2022
European Union incites member states to remove administrative study indicated 18% of its then nearly 20 GW capacity exposed
barriers to long-term PPA and to facilitate their adoption. One of to spot markets) in Asia Pacific with projects underway or in the
the principal barriers to developing PPAs is the multitude of risks, development phase in Botswana, Namibia, in Africa. In the USA
from low production to off-takers insolvency, and there is a small as PPA contracts become shorter and shorter (under 10 years),
but growing market in risk hedging; France launched a credit merchant sales are becoming an integral part of the long-term
economic viability of projects.

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IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

NON-INCENTIVIZED SELF-CONSUMPTION Similarly, pay-as-you-go financial models have been very

Self-consumption ceases to need incentives when the revenue successful in the deployment of Solar Home Systems (SHS) and
from the savings on electricity bills (the self-consumed part) and solar kits in African countries in the past years and are expected to
the revenue from the sale of excess PV electricity covers the long- further drive the development of PV in the residential and off-grid
term cost of installing, financing and operating the PV system. As segments. Pay-as-you-go models are directly inspired by prepaid
retail and wholesale electricity prices rise and PV LCOE reduces, mobile payment schemes; the users pay a monthly fee according
self-consumption has become an obvious choice in many markets to their needs and own the solar kit when enough credits have
– particularly in European and Australian markets or markets been paid.
where electricity prices were disrupted due to the Ukraine conflict.

Where self-consumption becomes the norm, grid managers can

PROSUMER AND ENERGY
become wary of transfers in the burden of grid costs between COMMUNITY POLICIES
consumer/producer categories, or even revenue loss where ...........................................................................................................
revenue is proportional to consumption. In this context, fixed fees or
self-consumption taxes and penalties can reduce the attractiveness
SELF-CONSUMPTION IN REGULATORY ENVIRONMENTS
of self-consumption and impact uptake. For example, concerns
over such cost-shifting from PV to non-PV customers in the USA Prosumer (self-consumption) regulations are increasingly being
were cited as one of the main drivers of changes to California’s net implemented in different countries with the double goal of
energy metering revision in 2022, where grid participation charges empowering consumers to play an important role in the energy
and minimum bills were initially considered. This in turn led to a transition and reduce the cost of support mechanisms for the
rush of installation in California, as consumers rushed to remain development of renewable energies. Measures in favour of
eligible to the pre-reform mechanisms. distributed generation are stimulating greater use of renewable
sources with further positive effects such as a stronger penetration
As grid capacity becomes saturated, triggering curtailment and
of electricity in final consumption, the reduction of transmission
balancing cost increases, consumers will increasingly look to
and distribution costs and new investments in integrated energy
alternatives, from storage to energy sharing through collective
management projects (electricity, heat, efficiency, storage, etc.).
self-consumption or energy communities to improve the economic
equation. Self-consumption is allowed one way or another in many countries
but the regulations in place differ significantly with both structured
and ad hoc legal frameworks, although the physical principles
INNOVATING FINANCIAL SOLUTION SUPPORT of self-consumption are always the same: the electricity that
An increasing number of investment solutions have emerged for is produced by the PV system and locally consumed reduces
the financing of solar installations, these are even more relevant in the quantity of electricity on the consumer’s bill. However, this
the case of unsubsidized PV. The high upfront capital requirements reduction is not implemented in the same way in all countries.
are pushing different business models to develop, especially in
the USA, and to a certain extent in some European countries. Mechanisms to promote or regulate self-consumption tend to
PV-as-a-service contributes significantly to the USA’s residential address one or more of the following:
market for instance, with the idea that PV could be sold as a 1. Initial grid connection and/or annual grid access fees
service contract, not implying the ownership or the financing of the
installation. These business models could deeply transform the PV 2. The right to inject excess and the remuneration of excess
sector in the coming years, with their ability to include PV in long- electricity.
term contracts, reducing the uncertainty for the contractor. Such
Grid connection fees can be reduced or waived to promote self-
business models represent already more than 50% of the residential
consumption (especially when consumers are already equipped
market in the USA, and some utilities in Germany, Austria, Sweden
with electronic meters that require no direct intervention) (France,
and Switzerland are starting to propose them. The USA remains
Finland, Netherlands) or on the contrary adapted to cover self-
innovative by the existence of pure players proposing PV as their
consumption. As in most countries grid access fees are calculated
main product, solving many barriers to financing and effective
with at least part being proportional to consumption, a number of
operations, as well as reducing the uncertainty in the long-term for
different approaches have been taken (or are under discussion)
the prosumer. It is possible that such services will further develop.
to diminish the impact on grid revenue for distribution service

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operators. Some adaptations adopted or discussed include: COLLECTIVE SELF-CONSUMPTION, ENERGY COMMUNITIES
modified grid tariff structures (increasing the fixed part and AND COMMUNITY SOLAR
reducing the variable part linked to consumption (Australia, France, Collective self-consumption, also called delocalized or virtual self-
Switzerland); specific grid taxes to compensate for saved grid consumption, energy communities or community solar, is when
costs due to net-metering/billing policies (Israel, Spain, Belgium); the electricity from one or more generators is allocated to one or
minimum bills to ensure a minimum level of remuneration from the more consumers, either reducing or offsetting energy consumed
user (USA). It should be noted that states and utilities in Australia from other suppliers through the grid. The energy flows can be
and the USA operate distinctly, and a variety of mechanisms have physical (for example when a PV system injects to internal grids in
been used. multiple-tenancy buildings) or virtual (when generation is allocated
via virtual metering and billing, using a predefined split key). The
The right to inject excess electricity has required structural
price of the electricity can be based on a negotiated per kWh fee or
changes to many regulatory frameworks around the world as it
accessed after a share in the capital investment.
intersects with generation and electricity sales on the one hand and
balancing requirements on the other. In high penetration grids, or It began as a single system supplying on-site consumers with self-
under-dimensioned grids, automatic rights to inject can also have consumption; from there, collective self-consumption developed
serious consequences in terms of grid stability management when with the aim of widening the perimeter of self-consumption. This
consumption is low and injections are high (Australia, Austria, allows one or several PV producers (even utility-scale plants) to
some states in the USA, Vietnam). In these countries, limits on feed one or more consumers at a reasonable distance so that
injection (injection capacity or time of injection) can be put in place; the use of the public grid is minimized. The perimeter, often
increasingly, distribution service operator-led dynamic curtailment initially limited to a building, has expanded in different countries
of injection limits for distributed generation and prosumers is being to a geographical distance (10 km, 20km radius…or across a
investigated to ensure both grid stability and smooth development district, region or the whole country) or set on a transformer or
of PV (Australia, USA, Japan, Spain). substation level. In this sense, some schemes compensate for real
energy flows, while others are compensating for financial flows.
The excess electricity can be credited to the consumer (net
While details may vary, the basics are similar. This widening of
metering) on a specific timestep (monthly, quarterly, annually) with
the perimeter to the district or regional level to include several
unused credits either carried over or lost; it can be sold (net billing
consumers and generators has advantages for participants that
on short timesteps, from 5 minutes up to several hours or a day)
include increased self-consumption ratios and more equitable
to the utility, to support mechanisms buyers or on the market; it
access to roofs and land for self-consumption purposes (Mexico,
can also earn green certificates that can be traded. See above for
Brazil, France, Lithuania, USA).
more information.
The economic viability of collective self-consumption projects is built
Finally, third-party ownership (often synonymous with long-term
not only on retail and wholesale electricity prices and generation
leasing) allows the development of self-consumption even when
prices but also on the contributions participants must pay to grid
consumers do not have access to the capital necessary for up-front
access and the level of taxes on consumption and generation.
costs – whilst it is common in some countries (USA), in others the
complex regulatory environment means it is either not possible or There has been strong interest in particular in Italy, France, Spain,
requires changes to legislation (Denmark, France, Spain). the USA and to a lesser extent Portugal,, Austria, Canada, Norway
Sweden, Switzerland, Germany.

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IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

In Italy, there are incentives for systems up to 1MW in groups consumption. Options are numerous and imply fair remuneration
behind the same substation. In Sweden, it had been allowed of the grid to be competitive for all. Using PV electricity in a
through microgrids in 2021. In France, virtual self-consumption decentralized location implies the use of the public grid, distribution
operations can cover a perimeter of up to 20 km (rules apply) or even transmission and would require putting a fair price on such
and there are simplified administrative and legal procedures for use.
social housing operators running operations on multi-tenancy
buildings; generators can access the FIT for excess electricity
not immediately self-consumed within an operation’s 30-minute
compensation time step. In Germany, building owners can produce
and sell electricity to their tenants which makes the investment
more attractive. The UK has also implemented a favourable
framework for collective prosumers. In Spain public policies and
subsidies promote energy communities. Within the USA, the
Inflation Reduction Act included significant tax credit bonuses for
collective self-consumption projects that met certain size, location,
and equitable distribution of benefits requirements; nearly half
of the states have passed legislation enabling virtual collective
self-consumption (referred to within the USA as “community
solar”), with many including requirements for participation of
low-income households. Other countries have some definitions,
but these are not yet fully implemented. In Austria, electricity
traded in energy communities benefits from tax exemptions. In
Switzerland collective self-consumption is allowed by most DSOs,
but consumers have to be contiguous and not use the public grid.
In Norway, since 2023 consumers on the same property can share
and self-consume electricity produced from a PV system of up to 1
MW, and discussion is underway to allow virtual self-consumption
in industrial areas. In the USA and Australia community and
edge-of-grid rural microgrids are emerging to reduce the cost
of electricity consumption and provide local resilience through
storage and backup power.

Network pricing regulations differ, and, in some countries,

exemptions are used to encourage projects whilst in others
full network charges must be paid even for locally transmitted
electricity, which acts as a barrier to collective self-consumption or
virtual net-metering.

These schemes create complex questions, especially regarding

the use of the grid, the legal aspects and technical complexity
related to compensating electricity between several meters and
the innovative aspect of the scheme.

The opportunities opened up by such concepts are wide-ranging

and could tend to increase consumer participation in market
mechanisms and PPA participation. As an extension, consumption
metering points could become virtual too - innovative schemes
could allow charging an electric vehicle at the office with PV
electricity produced at home or sharing the PV electricity in all
public buildings in a small town between them depending on the

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...................................................................................................................................................................

in the EU context

While self-consumption is allowed in most European countries, Europe has decided to go a step further with the
comprehensive update of its energy policy, the “Clean Energy Package”. The European Union introduced new provisions
on the energy market design and frameworks for new energy initiatives. Specifically, the actual recast of the renewable
energy directive (REDII) and the electricity market directive (EMDII) provide basic definitions and requirements for
the activities of individual and collective self-consumption. The European Union introduced the concept of Renewable
Energy Communities (REC) and Citizen Energy Communities (CEC). REC should allow citizens to sell renewable energy
production to their neighbours, while some crucial components are the definition of the perimeter and the tariffication
for grid use. Those key components are defined in the national implementation in the member states that are being
deployed across Europe. This concept of energy communities is expanding the existing PV market segments and allow
cost reductions for consumers not able to invest in solar installation themselves. In Europe, the Federation of energy
communities RESCoop has over 2000 member organizations representing more than 1.5 million citizens, testifying to the
strong development.

in the USA

A different definition of an energy community is emerging in the USA as a result of the passage of the Inflation Reduction
Act. It is now used to refer to communities that have been historically adversely impacted or are at risk of being adversely
impacted in the future by the energy transition. The use of the term Community Solar in the USA is closer to the definition
of collective self‑consumption than the EU REC. Solar communities are growing under the impetus of IRA subsidies
and state-led legislation – with often sharp crossovers joining community solar to energy communities; for example,
Maryland, Minnesota and New Jersey have similar programmes that require community solar facilities to deliver a
minimum percentage of their output to low- and moderate- income subscribers. By the end of 2023, community solar
had an estimated capacity of 7.3 GW AC, with 75% of this power in just four states (Florida, New York, Massachusetts
and Minnesota).

ENERGY TRANSITION LEVER POLICIES integrated PV whilst many counties have regulations or incentives
............................................................................................................ for building a PV system, with mandatory solar in Vienna and Styria
for commercial and apartment buildings. France has mandatory
SUSTAINABLE BUILDING REQUIREMENTS solar or living roofs for commercial and industrial buildings or
covered car parks. In Germany, in Berlin, solar will be mandatory
The building sector has a major role to play in PV development and on many new buildings by 2023 whilst in the Netherlands, buildings
sustainable building regulations drive PV’s deployment in countries must aim to be nearly energy neutral since 2021, pushing solar. In
where the competitiveness of PV is close. These regulations Switzerland, mandatory solar is being rolled out across different
include requirements for new building developments (residential cities for new and/or renovated buildings. In Belgium, Flanders
and commercial) but also, in some cases, on properties for sale. introduced measures in 2014 with PV now on more than 85% of
PV may be included in a suite of options for reducing the energy new buildings. In Denmark, the national building code has integrated
footprint of the building or specifically mandated as an inclusion in PV to reduce the energy footprint, whilst in Italy, capital subsidies
the building development. have been introduced to promote PV on public buildings in some
The publication of the European Commission’s Solar Strategy in regions. In Japan, Tokyo will be requiring solar on most residential
2022 is part of the REPowerEU package. It presents four initiatives to buildings, and other smaller buildings from 2025. In South Korea,
overcome the remaining short-term challenges and the first of them the NRE Mandatory Use for Public Buildings Programme imposes
is promoting quick and massive PV deployment via the European on new public institution buildings with floor areas exceeding 1000
Solar Rooftops Initiative. Member states are incorporating this square meters to source more than 10% of their energy consumption
initiative in different ways into their national regulations. from new and renewable sources. In the USA, California has had
In Austria, the federal support schemes have a bonus for building mandatory solar for certain new residential buildings since 2020

46
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

and is set to extend this to non-residential and high-rise multifamily Countries with higher penetration rates or good uptake, such as
buildings in 2023 and expand the mandate to require a solar plus Norway, Sweden supported the roll out of electric vehicles for many
storage system, rather than just a solar system. In India, some states years but have already stopped incentives. China no longer offered
have mandatory solar supply policies for new buildings. rebates in 2023 but maintained tax exemptions. Germany stopped its
Beyond overall building performance regulations, rising questions subsidies in 2023. In Australia, one state introduced a tax specifically
around the public acceptability of utility-scale PV is pushing a number for EV users to offset taxes no longer being collected through fuel
of governments to actively encourage or mandate solar in very levies in 2021; this tax was deemed unconstitutional in 2023 and will
particular segments – from Japan’s program supporting research, be reimbursed to EV owners.
guidelines and demonstrators for wall-integrated PV (including semi-
transparent and perovskite cells) to France’s mandatory solar on HYDROGEN PRODUCTION
impermeable car parks. The goal of occupying low-conflict surfaces
is pushing solar too. Solar fuels, storage and other hydrogen-based applications will
require massive PV, wind and other RES development if hydrogen
ELECTRIC MOBILITY is to be “green”. Distributed Hydrogen production could be driven
by distributed PV as well, pushing for higher demand for distributed
The electrification of transport is accelerating in many countries PV-H2 production. This still remains to be materialized in the future,
and whilst the link between PV development and EVs is not yet however strong interest after the Ukraine conflict-hit gas and
fully understood, the growth of self-consumption policies and grid electricity prices in 2022 has been supported by strong government
congestion limiting injections are factors to be considered. Charging investment programs. In the USA, the Inflation Reduction Act
EVs during peak load implies rethinking power generation, grid financed a hydrogen hub program and supplies tax credits for
management and smart metering, and concepts such as virtual hydrogen produced from renewable energies including solar. The
self-consumption could rapidly provide a framework for EV’s as European Commission expects green hydrogen to play a pivotal
mobile storage for excess PV generation. With 14.2 million EVs sold role in the decarbonisation of sectors where electrification might be
in 2023 (+35% on 2022), electric vehicles sales are still accelerating in less feasible and to bridge some of the gaps for seasonal variations
parallel, albeit at a different rhythm, to PV. Growth was particularly of electricity generation (ie from solar). Funding programs promote
dynamic in some IEA PVPS countries including, Australia, Canada, research and a pilot project to reach the ambitious plan of between
China, Spain, Switzerland and Türkiye, Thailand, Malaysia. Non-IEA 15 GW and 40 GW of electrolysers in Europe by 2030. As member
PVPS countries with strong growth markets include India and Brazil. countries were required to submit updated National Energy and
In Europe, EU directives aim for 100% zero-emission vehicle sales Climate Plans plans in 2023, nine member countries included funding
by 2035 (2030 in Austria, the Netherlands, Denmark) and national and tax incentives for hydrogen projects;Spain tripled its 2030 targets
and local-level actions exist to support EV deployment, both with for renewable-based hydrogen, Portugal doubled theirs. In China the
incentives for those buying EV’s or investing in charging stations, but biggest solar + hydrogen project was commissioned in 2023 and
also in terms of barriers for traditional internal combustion vehicles should produce 20 000 tons/year of hydrogen. In India competitive
(France, Norway, Switzerland). In Austria, a federal program tenders for electrolysers for green hydrogen were launched in 2023,
supports the purchase of electric vehicles for private – on the with a called capacity of 1.5GW of electrolyser capacity in the first
condition that it is supplied by 100% renewable energy. In Germany round.
a support programme for solar for charging EV’s launched in 2023 Large-scale renewable + hydrogen production projects finalised
closed after its budget was depleted in just one day. Outside of financing around the world in 2023: several each in Australia,
Europe, many countries with dynamic PV markets also have strong Germany and France – whilst not exclusively solar-powered, cheap
financial incentives for electric passenger vehicles and charging solar is an important part of the economic equation for these projects
stations (Japan, some states in Australia, India). In 2022, the USA along with wind power.
implemented significant national incentives for the purchase of EVs
via the Inflation Reduction Act and began the buildout of a national ELECTRICITY STORAGE
EV-charging network via the Infrastructure, Investments, and Jobs
Act of 2021. In South Korea public entities may only purchase eco- The cost of storage is pursuing its steep decline after a short halt in
friendly vehicles (electric or hydrogen), whilst local and national 2022 - and storage is becoming more attractive in a growing number
government support charging stations roll out and energy storage of markets. Due to the cost decline of storage, solar power plants
businesses with installed solar can now sell power directly to electric with onsite storage are increasingly attractive for developers and
vehicle users. residential customers as the combination with storage allows them

47
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

ENERGY TRANSITION LEVER POLICIES / CONTINUED

.................................................................................................................................

to smooth the power output, to deliver ancillary services or to reduce in 2022, including the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the USA and the
connection costs if peak injection is reduced. preparation of a series of EU-level policies in Europe. The IRA was
promulgated in August 2022 and the generous tax incentives for local
In China, capacity grew significantly in 2023 as in many provinces’ manufacturing, critical mineral refining, and recycling have triggered
storage is mandatory for new utility-scale solar, whilst commercial many announcements for new manufacturing capacity in the USA. In
installation also grew due to changing time of use consumption tariffs Europe a series of policies planned in 2022 but published in 2023 are
and the availability of subsidies. Incentives for battery storage exist intended as landmark acts in the EU Solar Energy Strategy (within
in a wide range of countries, including Austria, Japan and Romania the REPowerEU plan) - the Green Deal Industrial Plan (published in
whilst plans are being made for the near future (Italy, Hungary, February 2023), the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA) and the Critical
Canada). Spain has launched a call for renewables + storage projects, Raw Materials Act (both published in March 2023), and the Net Zero
subsidising storage for self-consumption projects; there are reserved Industry Academies were enacted, stimulating and encouraging
volumes for projects on the Canary and Balearic Islands. In the local manufacturing plans. Future changes to the Carbon Border
USA tax credits are available as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, Adjustment Mechanism may also have positive impacts in Europe.
whilst multiple states have energy storage procurement goals or Amendments to the Temporary Crisis Framework at the end of
mandates, and in California solar + storage is now mandatory for 2022 lift limitations for the EU Member States to grant direct CAPEX
many types of new commercial or multifamily dwellings. In Australia, support to new net-zero industry projects, with solar manufacturing
households have access to rebates in some states, whilst in others being entirely eligible. Co-funded by the EU and launched in late
time of use and power injection caps have given battery storage 2022, the European Solar PV Industry Alliance aims to facilitate
short payback times. Unattached to solar but enabling high PV innovation-driven expansion of a resilient industrial solar value chain
penetration rates in the grid, Federal government support for Big in the EU, particularly in the PV manufacturing sector. These EU level
Batteries continues with a revenue underwriting scheme (similar to actions have been complemented by national measures planned
CfD) and some states have grants and funds for market positioning over 2022 and 2023 in the Netherlands, Spain Italy, which came
and capacity building. into action in 2024. In India, state financing for local manufacturing is
Storage is a key element of a carbon neutral energy system relying available through the Production Linked Incentive Scheme that was
on RES electricity; therefore, the European Commission actively continued in 2022, with three winners in Round 1 – and more than ten
supports energy storage through research and innovation funds. announced in further rounds in 2023, a first step to building dozens of
Some consider that storage development for PV electricity will be GW of domestic manufacturing capacity capable of supplying a large
massively realized through electric vehicles connected to the grid proportion of the local, growing PV market. In Türkiye a new YEKA
during a large part of the day and therefore, will be able to store and (Renewable Energy Resource Area) call for tenders is expected but
deliver energy to consumers at a larger scale than simple batteries. not published in 2022 – the YEKA calls give priority to areas and
These vehicle-to-grid or V2G concepts are being explored and tested RES projects that can be supplied with domestic manufacturing and
in several countries, with the Netherlands, Switzerland and Japan as have proved successful so far.
front-runners, with at least one V2G project selling on the electricity
market. In China industry and government have acted to maintain
their position as the pre-eminent manufacturer of PV, and
with massive private investments over 2022 they have in fact
INDUSTRIAL AND MANUFACTURING triggered overcapacities in large-scale manufacturing, bringing
POLICIES down module prices to below cost in 2023 and creating a natural
..................................................................................................... barrier to entry for new manufacturers in other countries.
COVID-led supply chain disruptions and increasingly ambitious
climate change actions saw many initiatives favouring local Whilst there is a clear push to develop support for local manufacturing
manufacturing at various steps of the PV value chain in 2021 and 2022, across the world, there is not always a clear understanding of the
with governments around the world supporting local manufacturing industry dynamics and the complexities of PV manufacturing, which
through policies, subsidies and regulations – from tax credits to will lead to fewer real projects than what some governments would
direct subsidies to reduced administrative barriers for local content. like to see. In addition, as the proportion of global supply of specific
However, the drastic reduction in module prices in mid-2023 as new raw materials (glass for example) devoted to PV increases, local
capacity came online in China, well above the international market’s manufacturing will require access to global value chains and the role
ability to absorb, has made the future of many projects uncertain. of already existing global actors should not be neglected .
Some of the most significant acts of the past decade were launched

48
 four
TRENDS IN PV INDUSTRY

This chapter provides a brief overview of the upstream and manufacturing capacity in China were reported in 2023 whilst the
downstream sectors of the PV industry intending to provide Chinese production share increased in all of the value chain.
highlights during 2023 and the first half of 2024. The first part
In 2023, production capacity increased to 1 103 GW/year from
provides manufacturing activities of the upstream sector of
717 GW/year in 2022. The production capacity figures include
the PV industry from feedstocks (metallurgical grade silicon,
(MG-Si), polysilicon, ingots, blocks/bricks and wafers) to PV cells the capacities of aging and idle facilities that are not competitive
and modules described in Figure 4.1. The second part provides anymore: consequently, the real, effective, production capacity
activities of the balance-of-system (BOS) sector that include is assumed to be on the level of about 700 GW/year to 800 GW/
components (inverters, mounting structures, charge regulators, year in 2023. The speed of capacity enhancement is faster than the
global PV market growth so the gap between demand and supply
storage batteries, appliances, etc.), and project development and
operation and maintenance (O&M). was wider in 2023 and PV module prices remained lower. If the gap
is not bridged and inventories are not cleared, current price levels
In 2023, the gaps between demand and manufacturing capacity are expected to continue.
affected lowering price trends along the value chain of PV modules.
The speed of manufacturing capacity expansion surpassed the
market growth and the increase of module inventories also affected
price levels. The price of polysilicon dropped from 22.13 USD/kg at
the end of 2022 to the 7 USD/kg range by the end of June 2023,
and it remained below 10 USD/kg thereafter. PV module prices
were 11-12 US cents/W as of the end of December 2023. While
concerns about rising project costs in 2022 have been resolved,
PV module suppliers have been facing lower margins and cost
pressure.

Throughout the year, projects for increases in manufacturing

outside of China have been reported in the USA, India and Europe.
Due to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), it is reported that the USA
production capacity of PV solar modules will exceed 100 GW/
year in 2026. Projects for manufacturing inverters and trackers
are also planned there. In India, due to the PLI, the solar module
production capacity is expected to reach 60 GW/year by the end of
2025. Despite these projects, China remained the world’s largest
producer along the PV supply chain and further increases of

49
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

FIGURE 4.1: PV SYSTEM VALUE CHAIN

Po l ysilicon

CAST SILICON FURNACE DOPING MATERIAL

MONO-CRYSTALLINE Si
SINGLE CRYSTAL GROWING FURNACE MULTI-CRYSTALLINE Si
QUARTZ CRUCIBLE
SLICING EQUIPMENT WIRE (FOR WIRE SAW SLICING)
ABRASIVE GRAIN, SLURRY (FOR WIRE SAW SLICING)
TEXTURE TREATMENT EQUIPMENT
DIFFUSION FURNACE ETCHING & TEXTURING SOLUTION
DEPOSITION EQUIPMENT CELL ANTIREFLECTIVE FILM
SCREEN PRINTING EQUIPMENT METALLIZATION MATERIAL
FIRING FURNACE
TEDLAR/PET
EVA/POE
LAMINATOR MODULE INTERCONNECTOR
TEMPERED GLASS
ALUMINUM FRAME
JUNCTION BOX

INVERTER
BATTERY
MOUNTING STRUCTURE
EQUIPMENT FOR GRID CONNECTION
VARIOUS TYPES OF LOAD, DEPENDING ON APPLICATIONS
DESIGN, INSTALLATION TECHNOLOGIES

PV SYSTEM

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

share of production (48%) in 2023 followed by Yunnan (17%) and

THE UPSTREAM PV SECTOR Sichuan (16%). Some major Chinese PV companies are planning
............................................................................................................ to invest in production. For example, Tongwei group has a plan
to establish two plants (360 000 ton/year and 400 000 ton/year) in
SILICON METAL PRODUCTION Inner Mongolia. Trina Solar invested to build vertically integrated
factories in Qinghai Province, including silicon metal (100 000 tons/
Wafer-based c-Si technology remains dominant for producing year). Other companies such as Juhua Group are also reported as
PV cells. In that respect, this chapter focuses on the wafer-based having new investment plans. Outside of China, new investment
production process. Silicon metal (Metallurgical grade Si) is used plans are reported reflecting the needs to diversify the PV supply
as a raw material for polysilicon, which is used to make ingots and chain. In India, Adani New Industries (ANIL) has raised $39.4 billion
wafers then processed to solar cells. Sustainability of the industry to set up vertically integrated factories for silicon metal, polysilicon,
in terms of resources availability and fair business practices, and ingots, wafers and solar cell and PV modules (with a production
silicon metal production became focuses of the PV industry. In capacity of 10 GW/year). In Australia, Solquartz is planning to
2023, the world manufacturing capacity of silicon metal reached produce MG-Si and polysilicon in the same area.
8.54 million tons/year. Amongst the manufacturing countries, China
POLYSILICON PRODUCTION
has the largest capacity at 7 million tons/year (82%). As well as in
The global polysilicon production (including semiconductor grade
the other steps of crystalline silicon solar cell manufacturing, China
polysilicon) in 2023 was about 1 608 000 tons, a 61% increase from
has the dominant position in this sector. In 2023, China produced
the previous year. Production of polysilicon for semiconductors
3.76 million tons of silicon metal, and domestic consumption was
was about 38 800 tons. This means that more than 98% of
3.19 million tons, of which 53% (1.825 million tons) was used to
polysilicon production was used for PV applications. Global
produce polysilicon. China foresees high growth in demand for
polysilicon production capacity (including production capacity for
silicon metal. Production in 2024 is expected to increase 20% year
semiconductors) increased by 83% from 1 354 700 tons/year in
on year to 4.7 million tons in 2024. In China, Xinjiang has the largest
2022 to 2 487 400 tons/year in 2023.

50
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

In China, five new companies entered into polysilicon production Consumption unit of polysilicon per W of solar cells dropped from
and Chinese total manufacturing capacity reached 2.3 million tons/ 2.7 g/W in 2021 to 2.3 g/W in 2022. In 2023, it further dropped to
year, nearly double the previous year (1.16 million tons/year). China 2.2g /W. Consumption per unit is declining due to the improvement
produced 1.47 million tons of polysilicon in 2023 and is expected of solar cell efficiency, thinner and larger wafers, and development
to increase to 1.6 million to 1.8 million tons in 2024. According to of slicing technologies.
the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, CPIA, China produced
Most of the major polysilicon manufacturers use the Siemens
1.06 million tons of polysilicon in the first half of 2024, a 60.6%
process, conceived as a manufacturing process of polysilicon
increase on the previous period. Due to the continuous trends of
for the semiconductor industry. It is estimated that the Siemens
lowering prices, some companies reconsidered capacity expansion
process polysilicon accounted for 84% of the total production (1.35
and halted operation to ease the demand gap. Figure 4.2 shows
million tons). Production of polysilicon from FBR process increased
the share of polysilicon production by country.
and accounted for 16.1%.
IEA PVPS member countries producing polysilicon are China,
In 2021, the USA decided to ban imports of material from China-
Germany, the USA, Malaysia, South Korea, Norway and Japan.
based Hoshine Silicon Industry that produces metallic silicon, a
Chinese production share in 2023 increased to 92% from 86% in
base material of polysilicon. Then, in December 2021, the Uyghur
2020 .
Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) was enacted. On June 21,
Because of the rapid growth of manufacturing capacity and 2022 the USA started to enforce the ban on the importation of
the gaps between demand and supply continuing, the price of goods that were manufactured wholly or in part with forced labor
polysilicon dropped from 22.13 USD/kg at the end of 2022 to the 7 in China, especially from the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.
USD/kg range by the end of June 2023, and it remained below 10 This measure combines with the IRA that provides tax credits for
USD/kg thereafter. In January 2024, theprice level was 7 USD/kg polysilicon production (3 USD/kg). In the USA, several production
and it further dropped to 4.36 USD/kg in June 2024. There are 17 plans were reported. REC Corporation decided to start reoperation
polysilicon companies in China, but as of the end of May, at least of polysilicon plants with the investment guaranteed by Hanwaha
nine of them have reportedly stopped operations at their factories Solution of South Korea. Highland Materials, a USA manufacturer
for maintenance or other reasons. plans to set up a 16 000 ton/year solar-grade polysilicon plant.
As was mentioned in the previous section, polysilicon production
is planned in India, Australia. In the Middle East, several new
manufacturing projects are reported. GCL Technology has
announced a partnership with Mubadala Investment, a state-
FIGURE 4.2: SHARE OF PV POLYSILICON* PRODUCTION IN
owned company of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to establish
2023 BY COUNTRY
the Middle East’s first polysilicon plant in June 2024. United Solar
Polysilicon (FZC) has broken ground on a polysilicon plant with a
OTHER, 0%
KOREA, 0% metallurgical process in SOHAR Port and Freezone, Oman. The
MALAYSIA, 2% current lower price level of polysilicon might affect the progress of
USA, 2% these projects and China’s dominant share is expected to continue
GERMANY, 4% for the time being.
INGOTS & WAFERS
To produce sc-Si ingots or mc-Si ingots, the basic input material
consists of highly purified polysilicon. The ingots need to be cut
into bricks or blocks and then sawn into thin wafers. In the past
two types of silicon ingots were manufactured, sc-Si ingots and
mc-Si ingots, but sc-Si has become the industry standard and
China, 92%
had an almost 100% share in 2023 according to the International
Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV) 2024.

Global wafer production amounted to 682 GW in 2023, about a 79%

increase from 381 GW in 2022. 291 GW/year of new capacity was
*Production for semiconductors is included added in 2023 and the global production capacity of wafers as of
the end of 2023 increased from 683 GW/year in 2022 to 974 GW/
. year. Production capacity is highly concentrated in China, with an
Source: IEA PVPS, RTS Corporation

51
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

THE UPSTREAM PV SECTOR / CONTINUED

...........................................................................................................
FIGURE 4.3: SHARE OF PV WAFER PRODUCTION - 2023 BY
COUNTRY
almost 98% share. Other major countries manufacturing wafers OTHER, 1%
are Vietnam (18.5 GW/year), Malaysia, and Norway.
VIETNAM, 2%
As shown in Figure 4.3, China has more than 98% of the global
production of wafers. In 2023, China produced 668 GW of wafers, CHINA, 98%
Of this total, around 70 GW of wafers were exported to other solar
cell manufacturing countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand,
Singapore, Chinese Taipei and India. In Vietnam and Malaysia,
major Chinese solar cell manufacturers have production capacity.
In this segment, the Top 10 companies are all Chinese and
combined they have a capacity of 831 GW/year, or 85.5% of the
world’s total production capacity. They produced approximately
668.3 GW, accounting for 98.1% of the world’s production
.
SOURCE: EIA PVPS, RTS Corporation

TABLE 4.1: PRODUCTION CAPACITY AND PRODUCTION AMOUNT OF TOP 5 WAFER PRODUCERS IN 20

RANK COMPANY FACTORY LOCATION PRODUCTION CAPACITY (GW/YEAR) PRODUCTION (GW)

1 TCL ZHONGHUAN CHINA 155 133.7

LONGI GREEN ENERGY CHINA 167.4 124.9

2
TECHNOLOGY MALAYSIA 2.6 2.6

CHINA 78 69
3 JINKOSOLAR
VIETNAM 7 7

4 GCL GROUP CHINA 58.5 51.1

CHINA 78.5 45.4

5 JA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY
VIETNAM 5 4.7

.
SOURCE: EIA PVPS, RTS Corporation

In addition to major ingot/wafer manufacturers, some PV cell/ mainstream products. Wafer thickness further decreased in 2023.
module manufacturers also manufacture silicon ingots and wafers Average wafer thickness for p-type products in 2023 was 150 µm
for their in-house uses. There was a trend for some of these major down by 5% in 2022. The average thickness of n-type wafers for
PV module manufacturers that established vertically integrated TopCon was 125 µm. n-type is expected to be thinner and reach
manufacturing to shift to procuring wafers from specialized the 100 µm level in the short term. For cost reduction reasons,
manufacturers because of cost and quality advantages under the Tungsten wire is used as an alternative to diamond wire to allow
cost pressure. However, recently, some major companies have thinner wafers.
increased their in-house production capacity to reduce the risks The spot price of c-Si wafers generally follows the price of
associated with procurement. Table 4.1 shows the production polysilicon. The price of 182 mm sc-Si wafers was 50.3 USD cents/
capacity and production amount of Top 5 wafer producers piece in December 2022 and the trend down continued into 2023 to
In 2023, the market share of n-type and p-type single crystalline reach a spot price at the end of December 2023 of 34.9 USD cents/
Si was 30% and 70% respectively. It is expected that n-type will piece. This price decline was caused by the oversupply of wafers
rapidly increase to approximately 63% in 2024. In 2023, market while the production capacity of large solar cells did not increase as
share of 182 mm (M10, square or rectangular) was 78% and 210 much as that of wafers. In early 2023, short supply of quartz sand,
mm (G12) had a 20% of the total production. Share of 166 mm sized the raw material for crucibles used in the production of ingots was
wafer decreased to less than 2% as large-sized wafers become the reported, however process improvements meant it was no longer
an issue in 2024.

52
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

In the first half of 2024, China produced 402 GW of wafers, a China’s dominant position was further strengthened in this sector
58.6% increase on the same period of the previous year. Of this, as China produced 591 GW of solar cells, and increased it’s share
38.8 GW was exported to mainly ASEAN countries, where major PV of global production to 91.8% from 84% in 2022 as shown in Figure
manufacturers have solar cell manufacturing facilities. It is reported 4.4. China’s solar cell manufacturing capacity was 930 GW/year
that more than half of the wafer manufacturing companies dropped at the end of 2023 with 424 GW/year of newly added capacity.
operating intensity or halted production to narrow the supply and In China, 310 GW of solar cells were produced in the first half
demand gap. Considering over capacity, plans for about 15 GW/ of 2024, a 38.1% increase from the same period of 2023. Major
year of new capacity were canceled or postponed. countries other than China that reported production of solar cells
in 2023 are Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, India but
Outside of China, plans for new and expanded wafer production
also the USA and Japan. Figure 4.4 shows the share of solar cell
capacity were reported in 2023. In India, several companies are
production by country in 2023. Production in Vietnam, Malaysia
planning vertical production from wafers to PV modules using
and Thailand havs been increasing as demand for modules exempt
the subsidy under the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme.
from the USA’s antidumping duties (AD) and countervailing duties
It is reported that total wafer capacity in India will reach 56 GW/
(CVD) imposed on Chinese products grows. USA imported about
year by 2026. According to the USA’s Solar Energy Industries
3.5 GW of solar cells from these countries. In the USA, solar cell
Association, SEIA, a total 20 GW/year wafer production capacity
production is mainly conducted by First Solar with CdTe thin-film
was announced in the USA. A Norwegian company, NorSun
PV technology.
is planning to have 5 GW/year capacity in Oklahoma (USA) and
Hanwha is building a 3.3 GW/year ingot/wafer plant in Georgia
(USA). NexWafe (Germany) that is building a 250 MW/wafer plant FIGURE 4.4: SHARE OF PV CELL PRODUCTION - 2023 BY
in Bitterfeld, Germany announced a plan to establish a 6 GW/year COUNTRY
factory in the USA. However, it is unclear whether these plans will REST OF THE WORLD, 01%
INDIA, 0.5%
come to fruition due to the over-supply issues, and some reports THAILAND, 0.6%
of cancelled projects have already been already reported - Cubic CHINESSE TAIPEI, 0.6%
USA, 0.8%
PV cancelled its project of 10 GW/year in the USA. Given these SOUTH KOREA, 1.6%
VIETNAM, 1.7%
circumstances, there is no doubt that China will remain the primary MALAYSIA, 2.3%
wafer supplier for the time being.
CHINA, 91.8%
SOLAR CELL AND MODULE PRODUCTION

Solar Cell Production

Global solar cell (c-Si and thin-film solar cell) production in 2023
reached 644 GW, a 63% increase from 394 GW in 2022. Global
solar cell manufacturing capacity was 1 032 GW/year as of the
end of 2023, as for the first time it passed the 1 TW/year level. .
SOURCE IEA PVPS, RTS CORPORATION

TABLE 4.2: GLOBAL TOP FIVE MANUFACTURERS IN TERMS OF PV CELL/MODULE PRODUCTION AND SHIPMENT VOLUME (2023))
RANK SOLAR CELL PRODUCTION (GW) PV MODULE PRODUCTION (GW) PV MODULE SHIPMENT (GW)

1 TONGWEI SOLAR 80.8 JINKOSOLAR 83.5 JINKOSOLAR 78.5

2 JINKOSOLAR 63.9 LONGI GREEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY 72.8 LONGI GREEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY 67.5

3 LONGI GREEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY 62.3 JA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY 60 TRINA SOLAR 65.2

4 JA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY 45.5 TRINA SOLAR 58.9 JA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY 55.3

5 TRINA SOLAR 44.3 CANADIAN SOLAR 31.4 TONGWEI GROUP 31.1

NOTE: PRODUCTION VOLUMES ARE MANUFACTURERS’ OWN PRODUCTION, WHEREAS SHIPMENT VOLUMES INCLUDE COMMISSIONED PRODUCTION AND OEM
PROCUREMENT
.
SOURCE IEA PVPS, RTS CORPORATION

53
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

THE UPSTREAM PV SECTOR / CONTINUED

...........................................................................................................

As shown in Table 4.2, the Top five solar cell manufacturers are PV MODULE PRODUCTION
Chinese companies. As well as solar cells, global PV module manufacturing capacity
surpassed 1 TW/year in 2023 with 1 032 GW/year for the first time
In 2023, p-type PERC technology had the largest market share of
as 419 GW/year of new capacity was added. Global PV module
about 64%, but a quick transition to n-type is expected to advance
production (c-Si PV module and thin-film PV module) reached
in 2024. According to CPIA, the share of n-type manufacturing
612 GW, an almost 62% increase from 324 GW in 2022. As shown
capacity for TOPCon, silicon heterojunction solar cell (SHJ), back
in Figure 4.5, China continued to be the largest producer of PV
contact type (IBC), etc. is expected to reach 69% by the end of 2024.
modules in the world. China produced 510 GW of PV modules
The share of TOPCon technology increased from 10% in 2022 to
in 2023 from its 920 GW/year of production capacity. China’s
about 30% in 2023 and it is expected to increase to about 50% in
production share showed growth form 77.8% in 2022 up to 84.6%.
2024 and become the mainstream technology. SHJ’s share in 2023
In 2023, China recorded the highest exported amount of PV
was 5% and IBC’s share was 2%. The two principal technological
modules at 211.7 GW, a 37.8% increase from the previous year.
developments that manufacturers are investing in is to achieve
As shown in Table 4.2, the Top five PV module manufacturers
higher efficiency or to reduce silver (Ag) usage. According to the
are Chinese companies. In the first half of 2024, China produced
Silver Institute, demand for Ag for solar cells was up 64% from the
271 GW of PV modules, up 32.8% year-on-year. Of this, 129.2 GW
previous year to 193.5 million ounces in 2023 and accounted for
was exported. The export volume increased 19.7% year-on-year,
16% of total silver demand (1.195 billion ounces).
while export value decreased due to price drops. Because of the
The spot price of solar cells has been changing, following wafer rapid increase of supply capacity, most PV module producers have
prices and the supply and demand conditions in the market, and been facing thinner margins so that a reorganization of PV module
the cell manufacturing segment is also affected by the demand and players has started in China. Announced capacity additions and
supply gap. In January 2023, the spot price of 182 mm solar cells new entry business plans in China were cancelled or postponed
was 10 USD Cents/W. It had changed according to the demand and because of the huge oversupply situation.
p-type products dropped to around 4 USD cents/W in December
2023. N-type products (182 mm) in the same period had a higher
price than p-type at 5.6 USD cents/W.
FIGURE 4.5: SHARE OF PV MODULE PRODUCTION IN 2023 BY
COUNTRY
A diversification of solar cell manufacturing locations is expected
in the future. In India, cell manufacturing capacity is expected to
be more than 75 GW/year by the end of 2026. In the USA, a total RESTE OF THE WORLD, 2.6%
MALAYSIA, 2.1%
of 43 GW/year of new capacity addition has been announced USA, 2.2%

since the IRA was passed. In addition, plans to build solar cell THAILAND, 2.3%

manufacturing bases or capacity additions have also been reported INDIA, 2.7%
VIETNAM, 3.4%
in European countries such as Italy, France as well as Indonesia,
CHINA, 84.6%
Australia, Laos, Brazil, but also in the Middle East and Africa. As
was mentioned before, given the current price and demand supply
gap, it is uncertain if these plans will eventuate or not.

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS, RTS CORPORATION

54
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

In 2023, the second largest PV module producing country was PV MODULE TECHNOLOGY
Vietnam (21 GW) followed by India (16.6 GW). Other countries In 2023, 599.7 GW of c-Si PV module was produced. As shown in
producing PV modules are Thailand, Malaysia, USA. Canada, South Figure 4.6, the share of c-Si PV module was 98%, a slight increase
Korea, Chinese Taipei, Türkiye, Singapore and some European from 97.5% in 2022. It should be noted that the transition to sc-Si PV
countries are listed - but production amounts are smaller than modules advanced in 2023, and mc-Si disappeared from the market.
those countries. In India, according to the Ministry of Renewable As mentioned in the section on wafers and cells, adoption of larger-
Energy (MNRE), PV module production capacity reached 64.5 sized solar cells further increased. For the utility-scale segment, 70%
GW/year and it could be 150 GW/year by the end of 2026. The of the PV modules used had a surface area of 2.5 m2 to 3.0 m2 in
Indian government promotes domestic production by introducing 2023. In this segment, bifacial PV modules are also commonly used.
its certification program (ALMM) and Production Linked Incentive While larger sized PV modules contribute to a reduction of the LCOE,
(PLI). In the USA, under its policy to guard domestic manufacturers the heavier weight sometimes becomes an issue as it increases the
with import duties and incentives under IRA, PV module production cost of trackers and construction. PV modules adopting half-cut c-Si
increased from 7.3 GW in 2022 to 13.5 GW in 2023, and 20 GW/ solar cells are now mainstream, accounting for more than 90% of all
year of new capacity was added by eight companies for a total the PV modules in 2023. PV modules with third-cut cells and further
manufacturing capacity of 35 GW/year. Further capacity increases separated cells are manufactured as well. Shingled PV module
are expected in the USA. Under the IRA, a total of 85 GW/year technology (overlapping the edges of solar cells without ribbons) and
of new PV module manufacturing facilities have been announced. seamless soldering technology were also adopted.
Plans for the regional production of PV modules are becoming
active in Europe as well, driven by the demand for lower carbon
footprint modules, economic stimulation, and to mitigate the risk
of depending on specific production locations under the initiative
by the European Union (EU). The Net Zero Industry ACT (NZIA) FIGURE 4.6: PV MODULE PRODUCTION PER
enforced in June 2024 is expected to promote local production. TECHNOLOGY IN IEA PVPS COUNTRIES 2013 - 2023
However, several European companies decided to enhance
their capacity in USA instead of Europe due to more favorable 600
conditions.
540
As well as other products in the supply chain, PV module price was 480
affected by the supply and demand gap and increasing inventories
420
in the market. In January 2023, the average spot price of 182 mm
PERC PV modules with a nominal power of 550 W to 595 W was 360
0.223 USD/W. The price dropped to 0.187 USD/W in June then GW
300
gradually decreased to 0.115 USD/W at the end of 2023. While
240
dropping prices stimulate the demand, PV module manufactures
are facing difficult situations. One of the major PV module 180
manufacturers requested the Chinese government crackdown on 120
companies selling at unfair prices and review the bidding rules
60
which use price as the only selection criteria. It is reported that
manufacturers are now exposed to the risk that product quality 0
will decline if cost reductions are further prioritized, effectively 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

creating a risk to final clients with regards to safety, reliability, Thin film sc-Si mc-Si
and performance throughout the entire operational period of the
PV modules. Because of the very competitive environment over
prices, major companies are shifting their business to solutions or
system integration businesses combining PV products with their SOURCE IEA PVPS, RTS CORPORATION

inhouse batteries or inverters.

55
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

THE UPSTREAM PV SECTOR / CONTINUED

...........................................................................................................

Thin film PV production in 2023 was 12.5 GW and the share of In China, about 20 companies have announced plans to produce
thin-film PV slightly decreased from 2.5% in 2022 to 2% in 2023. perovskite solar cells. In the “Action Plan for Innovation and
The majority of the thin-film PV modules were CdTe PV modules Development of the Smart Photovoltaic Industry (2021-2025)”
produced by First Solar (USA). First Solar shipped 11.4 GW of announced in 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information
PV modules produced with 16.6 GW/year of capacity in the USA Technology of China (MIIT) announced a policy to promote the
and Malysia. China had 540 MW/year of CdTe capacity with 3 smartification of the entire PV industry. In this regard, advance
companies, but production scale remains low in comparison to research and industrialization of new solar cell modules, such
First Solar. Other thin-film technologies produced in 2023 were as perovskite and tandem types are promoted. Development
CIGS and amorphous-silicon PV modules. and application of building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) with
long service life and higher safety is also promoted. Under these
EMERGING TECHNOLOGY
policies, glass-glass perovskite modules produced by the pilot
In several IEA PVPS member countries such as China, Japan, lines have begun to be installed on roofs and walls of buildings
South Korea, USA, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden, R&D as a demonstration project. Some companies have announced
efforts on emerging PV technologies are underway. In particular, that they have passed the IEC 61215/61730 certification test. For
since the conversion efficiency has been rapidly improved in a example, in January 2023, Hangzhou Microquanta Semiconductor
short period of time, efforts toward the practical application of of China announced that its mass-produced perovskite solar cell
perovskite technology have been continued in 2023. Perovskite module, “Microquanta Module- ,” had passed all stability tests
solar cells are expected to have the potential for high conversion for the IEC 61215 and IEC 61730 standards by third-party testing
efficiency, low material costs, and a low carbon footprint process. organization VDE of Germany, becoming the first in the world to
Approximately 70 to 80 companies around the world are working receive certification. In addition, UtmoLight announced in February
on development with the aim of commercializing the manufacture 2024 that its commercial-sized perovskite solar cell module with an
of single-junction perovskite solar cells and tandem solar cells that area of 0.72 m2 had passed the IEC 61215/61730 certification test
combine perovskite solar cells with other technologies. and obtained the first and only TÜV certification.

Several companies in China and Europe are operating pilot

production lines. As of March 2024, there are two manufacturers
commercially producing and selling perovskite solar cells:
Hangzhou Microquanta Semiconductor of China, which produces
flat glass modules, and Saule Technologies of Poland, which mainly
produces perovskite solar cells for consumer products (such as for
electronic shelf power supplies). Several other companies have
begun shipping samples. Most companies, including those currently
preparing for production, plan to begin commercial production
around 2024 to 2026, after that some of those companies have
plans to expand production capacity to GW/year level.

56
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

The practical application of tandem technology using perovskite As mentioned above, research, development and demonstration
solar cells and c-Si solar cells is also actively being carried out of next-generation solar cells based on perovskite solar cells has
around the world. Oxford PV (UK) started small scale production of been active, but neither single-junction nor tandem technologies
tandem cells using M6 (166 mm wafers) in their German factory and have yet reached full-scale commercial production. It is necessary
plan to start commercial scale production in 2024. In June 2024, the to improve conversion efficiency (to fill the gap between small-area
company announced that it had recorded a conversion efficiency of cells and large-area modules), verify service life and stability, and
26.9% for a PV module with an area of approximately 1.6 m2 (1 m establish a manufacturing process. In addition to overcoming these
x 1.7 m) (measured by FhG-ISE CalLab) The construction of a pilot technical challenges, it is also necessary to identify target markets
line is advance by Hanwha Solutions (Hanwha Q CELLS) (South that take advantage of the characteristics of the technology,
Korea). The company established a pilot production line in Talheim, establish standardization (performance measurement and
(Germany) in November 2022 through a consortium with the reliability evaluation), and product design as a system (construction
Helmholtz Center for Materials and Energy Research Berlin (HZB) method, etc.), as well as ensure environmental safety and respond
and others. In May 2023, the company announced that it would to recycling efforts. For tandem types, durability and reliability
invest $100 million for the construction of a new pilot production line must be verified before they can be introduced into the market of
for tandem solar cell modules at its Jincheon plant in South Korea. existing c-Si solar cells.
The plan is to start commercial production by the end of 2026.
PRODUCTION CAPACITY EVOLUTION
Tongwei Group (China) plans to establish a photovoltaic industry
Figure 4.7 and Table 4.3 show the evolution of global annual PV
technology research and development center in Sichuan Province,
installed capacity, PV module production amount and PV module
China, including a 100 MW/year perovskite/HJT tandem solar cell
production capacity. In 2023, production capacity increased to
research and development line, and reportedly received approval
1 103 GW/year from 717 GW/year in 2022. The production capacity
from the Sichuan Provincial Development and Reform Commission
figures include the capacities of aging facilities and idle facilities that
in January 2024. The company announced that it had recorded a
are not competitive anymore; hence the real effective production
conversion efficiency of 31.68% for its perovskite/HJT tandem solar
capacity is assumed to be on the level of about 700 GW/year to
cell in November 2023. Other major Chinese companies are also
800 GW/year in 2023. The speed of capacity enhancement is faster
working on research and development of perovskite/c-Si tandem
than the global PV market growth development so that the gap
technology, although they have not announced plans to build pilot
between demand and supply was widened in 2023 and PV module
lines. In June 2024, LONGi Green Energy Technology (China)
prices dropped. If the gap is not reduced and the inventory is not
announced that it had recorded a conversion efficiency of 34.6%
cleared current price levels are expected to remained.
for its small area perovskite/c-Si tandem solar cell (measured by
EU ESTI). The company also announced that it achieved a 30.1%
of conversion efficiency using M6 standard wafers (measured by
FhG-ISE). Jinko Solar is also working on research and development
of tandem solar cells. In May 2024, the company announced that a
perovskite/c-Si tandem solar cell with an n-type TOPCon structure
recorded a conversion efficiency of 33.24% (measured by SIMIT,
China).

57
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

THE UPSTREAM PV SECTOR / CONTINUED

...........................................................................................................

FIGURE 4.7: YEARLY PV INSTALLATION, PV PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTION CAPACITY 2013-2023 (GW)
1200

1100

1000

900

800

700
GW
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Installed capacity Production Manufacturing capacity

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS, RTS CORPORATION

58
 IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

TABLE 4.3: EVOLUTION OF ACTUAL MODULE PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTION CAPACITIES (MW)

ACTUAL PRODUCTION PRODUCTION CAPACITIES

IEA PVPS OTHER IEA PVPS OTHER UTILIZATION
YEAR TOTAL TOTAL
COUNTRIES COUNTRIES COUNTRIES COUNTRIES RATE
1993 52 52 80 80 65%
1994 0 0 0 0 0%
1995 56 56 100 100 56%
1996 0 0 0 0 0%
1997 100 100 200 200 50%
1998 126 126 250 250 50%
1999 169 169 350 350 48%
2000 238 238 400 400 60%
2001 319 319 525 525 61%
2002 482 482 750 750 64%
2003 667 667 950 950 70%
2004 1 160 1 160 1 600 1 600 73%
2005 1 532 1 532 2 500 2 500 61%
2006 2 068 2 068 2 900 2 900 71%
2007 3 778 200 3 978 7 200 500 7 700 52%
2008 6 600 450 7 050 11 700 1 000 12 700 56%
2009 10 511 750 11 261 18 300 2 000 20 300 55%
2010 19 700 1 700 21 400 31 500 3 300 34 800 61%
2011 34 000 2 600 36 600 48 000 4 000 52 000 70%
2012 33 787 2 700 36 487 53 000 5 000 58 000 63%
2013 37 399 2 470 39 868,5 55 394 5 100 60 494 66%
2014 43 799 2 166 45 964,9 61 993 5 266 67 259 68%
2015 58 304 4 360 62 664 87 574 6 100 93 674 67%
2016 73 864 4 196 78 060 97 960 6 900 104 860 74%
2017 97 942 7 200 105 142 144 643 10 250 154 893 68%
2018 106 270 9 703 115 973 165 939 17 905 183 844 63%
2019 123 124 17 173 140 297 190 657 28 530 219 187 64%
2020 156 430 23 044 179 474 289 581 37 095 326 676 56%
2021 213 032 29 346 242 378 410 500 71 500 482 727 50%
2022 329842 48758 378600 611124 105476 716600 53%
2023 550992 61208 612200 1030500 72500 1103000 56%

.
Note: Although China joined IEA PVPS in 2010, data on China’s production volume and production SOURCE IEA PVPS, RTS CORPORATION
capacities in 2006 onwards are included in the statistics.

59
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

THE UPSTREAM PV SECTOR / CONTINUED

...........................................................................................................

Balance of system (BOS) component manufacturers and suppliers New grid codes require the active contribution of PV inverters to
represent an important part of the PV value chain and BOS ensure grid management and grid protection. Grid forming, which
components are accounting for an increasing portion of the system requires sophisticated control and interactive communications
cost as the PV module price is falling. Accordingly, the production functions with digital technologies and responds to inertia force is
of BOS products has become an important sector of the overall now being developed. While requirements are extended for inverter
PV industry. functions, serious concerns around cybersecurity are emerging,
and addressing cybersecurity is now one of the major issues for
INVERTER
energy security. Recently, US NIST published the draft guideline
With the growth of the PV market in China that achieved a minimum
“Cyber security for smart inverters: Guidelines for residential and
of 235.0 GW and probably up to 277.2 GW1 of installed capacity in
light commercial energy systems”. Solar Power Europe and other
2023, more than double from the previous year, Chinese inverter
trade associations are also working on these issues.
manufacturers had a dominant position in the global market. Their
dominance was observed in both utility-scale and distributed PV Along with the growth of the distributed market, hybrid products
markets. According to CPIA, the global shipment shares of China- that support power storage for residential and commercial use
made inverters in 2023 was 70%. Huawei and Sungrow, both are increasing, and applications for EVs and virtual power plants
Chinese companies have about 50% of the global shipment whilst (VPPs) are expanding. For self-consumption, functions to optimize
the Top 10 manufactures had more than 80% of the global volumes self-consumption have been equipped, supported by energy
shipped. However, regional difference remains - the Chinese management solutions combining energy storage systems and
market is dominated by Chinese companies, but in the PV market EVs with smart monitors. Applications of AI and machine-learning
in the Americas and Europe, European manufactures have a more for failure detection as well as optimization of electricity generation
significant share. contributed to lowering operation and maintenance (O&M) costs.
Generally, inverters are categorized into three types: central MLPE is growing in specific markets. Microinverters and DC
inverters, string inverters, and micro-inverters called “MLPE, optimizers (working on a module level) have been mainly adopted
module level power electronics”. In 2023, the share of central in the USA residential market to respond to rapid shutdown
inverters (1 MW to 5 MW) used for large-scale utility projects above requirement imposed by the National Electricity Code (NEC) but
10 MW was about 20%, down from 33% in 2022. The market share are also being pushed in other markets where shutdowns and
of string inverters used in utility-scale and small to medium-scale AC wiring is considered desirable (public buildings in France, for
commercial PV systems was around 79%. The share of MLPEs example). MLPE can help achieve a higher output for PV systems
remains low at about 1%, mainly for residential and small-scale affected by shading and a more efficient rapid shutdown can be
commercial applications. made in case of fire. In 2023, it is reported that the MPLE market in
Europe grew with the demand for decentralized PV.
Inverter prices were under pressure so efficiency improvements
have been advanced, achieving 99% and with the adoption of SiC Regarding the plans of establishing PV manufacturing bases in the
or GaN, a reduction of the weight and size is observed. It is reported USA as mentioned above, the production capacity of inverters in the
that new products achieved more than a 40% and 30% reduction USA is expected to increase. In August 2023, Siemens announced
of the volume and size respectively. In terms of the voltage,1 500V contract manufacturing in USA and Enphase extended contract
products had an almost 55% share in the global market. In 2023, manufacturing in several states. Under the IRA, incentives are also
for the first time, 2 000 V products were connected to the grid in the provided for inverter manufacturing, and the IRA’s incentives are
Mengjianwan project in China. With higher voltages, 2 000 V PV expected to increase demand for USA-made inverters, as there is
inverters reduce power losses in the system and improve efficiency, a 30% investment tax credit (ITC) plus a 10% deduction for projects
not just of the inverter but also the power efficiency of transformers using domestic products.
and other equipment, while reducing the cost of materials.

1. A range of values is provided to account for uncertainty in AC/DC conversion ratios, in

particular with regards to new utility-scale capacity in China, where the minimal annual
volume considers official China reporting and the maximal annual volume considers a
further 42 GW that could have been installed considering the uncertainty surrounding
official conversion ratios from AC to DC of Utility-scale systems.
60
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

TRACKERS
Among other BOS segments, the market of single axis trackers Companies doing business in the downstream sector have various
has been growing. The installed capacity of single axis trackers of origins: subsidiaries of electric utilities, subsidiaries of PV module
2023 was around 70 GW. The largest tracker market is the USA, manufacturers, companies involved in the conventional energy
where more than 90% of the utility-scale projects adopted single or oil-related energy business. Major PV project developers are
axis trackers. Aside from the USA, the market for PV trackers accelerating their overseas business deployment and are active in
is expanding in the countries where utility-scale PV projects are business deployment in the markets such as Africa, the Middle East,
growing, China, India, Australia, South America, South Africa and ASEAN region and South America. The number of project developers
the Middle East. Unlike other segments, the USA has the biggest active in the international business is increasing. Traditional energy
share in tracker shipments accounting for more than 50% of the companies are active in this field and TotalEnergies, Enel, Light
global single axis tracker shipments, but single axis trackers are Source BP, EDF Renewables and Iberdrola, etc. are developing PV
also produced in demand areas such as China and Europe. Some globally. Chinese energy giants are also active in this field - Top 5
of the principal companies (Nextracker, ArrayTechnologies and energy companies such as State Power Investment (SPIC), CHN
GameChange Solar) announced production capacity enhancements ENERGY Investment Group, China Huaneng Group, China Three
in the USA thanks to the dynamic and growing utility-scale market Gorges Renewables, and China Datang invested in around 80 GW
under IRA tax credits with a bonus for local contents. Besides of PV projects in 2023 in total. It should be also noted that several
utility-scale applications, trackers used for agriPV projects are vertically integrated companies are present in the downstream
developed and commercialized with specific designs to share solar sector. These companies produce PV modules or polysilicon,
energy with crops. develop PV projects and provide EPC and O&M services. c-Si PV
module manufacturers such as JinkoSolar, Trina Solar (both China),
Canadian Solar (Canada), and Hanwha Solutions (South Korea) are
also active in the downstream sector. On the other hand, in India,
project developers entered upstream sectors to take advantage
of PLI incentives. For example, in addition to PV cell and module
manufacturing capacity, the Adani Group has plans to establish
vertically integrated production from polysilicon to PV modules. In
April 2024, a wafer and ingot manufacturing plant in Gujarat started
operation.

..........................................................................................................

61
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

THE UPSTREAM PV SECTOR / CONTINUED ..

.....................................................................................................

Solar power remains the lowest-cost option in most countries,

making it increasingly attractive to investors. While lowering
PV module prices in 2023 stimulated the PV market, project
developers need to consider recent inflation, rising interest rates,
and increasing labor costs. In this situation, developers with strong
credit and capital will likely become more competitive as they will
have an easier time raising funds. Across the world, government
tenders will need to consider recent inflation, rising interest rates,
and fluctuations in product prices and devise flexible methods to
continue to attract investment.

62
 five
SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS OF PV
AND ACCEPTANCE

PV is bringing profound and undoubtedly long-lasting changes to ACCEPTANCE OF PV DEPLOYMENT

modern society – with positive impacts across economic sectors, ................................................................................................
societies and the environment, it is a fundamental pillar without
which the energy transition could not go ahead. As with all radical
transformations, the acceptability – or even, the desirability – of Acceptance can be defined as the willingness of stakeholders
the change is linked to perception of the attractivity or necessity to approve, support, and engage themselves in the energy
of the change and understanding of the impacts it will bring. For transition. This acceptance is fuelled by a positive perception of
photovoltaics, this covers subjects such as the number of jobs the changes and decreased by negative inputs. In the early days
involved, the creation of new companies and the disappearance or of the development of PV, up until the European boom of 2007-
transformation of others, the generation of new financial flows, the 2009, PV benefitted from an overwhelmingly positive image; it was
impact on the environment and local communities. Understanding developed with small scale distributed systems on roofs and was
these social aspects related to the development of PV is becoming not a significant generator of revenue or tension.
essential for governments adding photovoltaics to increasingly
Drops in acceptability have tended to come after boom growth –
ambitious clean energy targets.
for example, in Spain in 2007-2008 the local feed-in tariff was so
In particular, as penetration rates increase and utility scale popular that PV developed so fast that local authorities cut support
and building integrated systems become more visible in local mechanisms, in fear of economic and budget consequences for
communities some populations are becoming less accepting of the country. Other countries that stepped into the FiT policies have
PV, whilst in specific countries, organised resistance to PV, most also experienced major market development followed by a rapid
commonly for ground mounted systems but sometimes for building halt. The EU was the epicentre of PV development until 2011-2012,
applied systems, has become a reality despite a generally positive and this happened across a number of other European countries
opinion from the general public. like Spain, France, Belgium, Czech Republic, Greece, Bulgaria and
Romania.
This chapter aims at providing key elements and indicators that
can be used to promote the desirability of PV as an element of the Opposition in these contexts most often came from sectors
energy transition while highlighting essential aspects that remain that perceived photovoltaics as a threat: traditional utilities and
as sensitive points. energy sector majors for example, were unable to accommodate
photovoltaics in their traditional business plans and pushed poorly
informed authorities to put the brakes on PV development. The PV
community had built its reputation on its environmental advantages
and had not yet had to work on a broad social acceptance and was
unable to work with governments to create healthy dialogue.

63
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

ACCEPTANCE OF PV DEPLOYMENT / CONTINUED

.........................................................................................................................

The most recurring arguments motivating a lack of social acceptance and grid capacity, jobs, industry development and local content.
for PV depend on the country and the market segments, however Socio-political acceptance is often lagging behind community
common themes can be found including: acceptance in the early stages of PV development in a country.

• Unappreciation of the physical appearance of PV systems in Governments have demonstrated maturing levels of national
natural or heritage landscapes. socio-political acceptance through adapting planning legislation
and procedures, reserving research budgets for community
• Unfavourable opinions on the financial flows generated
engagement or technology advancement, unrolling support for
by PV systems (seen as either “profiteering” by individuals
local jobs through deployment rules and local content. Examples
or multinationals profiting from local resources without
Türkiye a hold on PV development until it was coupled with local
contributing to local economies).
value creation. In France, indirect local content requirements
• Fear that toxic and/or rare materials are used in the have been used in tenders for years, and local BIPV products
manufacturing process with no possibility of recycling and/or were eligible for a FiT bonus over 2022 and 2023 – and in 2024
that such materials may leach into the environment over time. the two gigafactory projects for local manufacturing were declared
Projects of National Interest. In the USA, recent funding programs
• Worries that PV will supplant crops and pose a risk to nutrition improving community engagement in utility PV siting plans
and food sovereignty. (R-STEP) and budgets specifically for research on community
acceptance and opposition to solar (SEEDS) were implemented. In
• Opposition to ground mounted systems on the grounds of
Japan, the 2023 meeting of the Agency for Natural Resources and
impacts to biodiversity and local environments.
Energy (ANRE) working group has developed recommendations
• Concerns that developers will fail to take community for facilitating harmonious siting practices for local communities as
sentiments or needs into account during system design well as provisions for suspending FiT and FiP for operators that
did not respect all laws and regulations, working to reassure the
• Fear around quality and reliability issues (fire and electrical general public of the accountability of generators.
risks, resistance to storms…)
Community acceptance is related to the acceptance by local
Where PV penetration rates are low, these issues seem to stakeholders. It includes concerns over distributional justice (costs
remain in the background, and only become prominent as market and benefits), procedural justice, and trust; NIMBYism (Not In My
penetration increases. For those countries/regions where they Backyard) sometimes occurs. It covers consideration of economic
are present, the PV sector, independent or government agencies aspects: grid costs, Renewable Energy System (RES) fees, unequal
have organised communication and educational campaigns, made access to PV, concentration of revenues between a limited number
fact-checking tools available to debunk the more aggressive false of big companies, social aspects (environmental, aesthetical
claims against PV and created educational resources targeted to impact), and specific opposition (e.g., farmers, hunters, lobbyists,
the general and specific publics. Communication campaigns tend etc). Many countries with well-developed utility scale markets
to be targeted towards the general public, working to demonstrate are increasingly experiencing local and/or organised resistance
best practices, illustrate community investment and governance, to utility scale systems, with multiple factors cited as reasons
or even educate the public about their ability to participate and for opposition, from the sealing of permeable lands to conflict of
engage in planning and development processes. usage with agriculture or biodiversity reservoirs (Austria, France,
SOCIO-POLITICAL AND COMMUNITY ACCEPTANCE Spain, Portugal, Sweden) – or even on the incompatibility of PV
In many countries there is a gap between national socio-political with the local cultural heritage (Italy). This opposition can be aimed
acceptance and community acceptance. These are associated with at planning permits, but also become manifest in local planning
relatively different concerns and should therefore be addressed regulations that restrict the siting of utility scale PV (USA, France,
separately. Italy, Netherlands).

National socio-political acceptance refers to the acceptance of Mandatory profit sharing of added value with local residents
a technology by politics, policy makers, key stakeholders and (France) is one type of action that can be taken to improve
the public. It englobes how legal and regulatory frameworks are community acceptance, as is giving neighbours and community
adapted to include PV, and takes into consideration subjects as members the ability to participate in siting and planning procedures
diverse as who carries the financial burden for support mechanisms and consultations.

64
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

Challenges related to the acceptance of PV, even if they are directly Citizen participation in energy communities or citizen investment
influenced by the political, economic, geographical, social context in and governance of solar projects is an important lever for both
which PV installations are being deployed, are fairly similar across empowering residents and citizens to initiate projects but also
different regions and countries. This calls for a higher collaboration maintain economic flows to local communities. In Austria, trials
between countries on this topic based on the sharing of experience
have been undertaken to involve citizens in energy planning and
and exchange of good practices.
investment. In France, the government co-finances the promotion
COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT of citizen investment in renewables. Citizen investment is present
in many countries such as Austria, Germany, France, Denmark,
Stakeholder engagement is an important way to improve USA, Australia… where citizens can either participate in controlling
acceptance and accelerate deployment. Stakeholders run across the project or receive financial participations.
the value chain, from research down to permitting, construction
and use – with stakeholder involvement important in some key Information and guidance web platforms and brochures can be
areas such as permitting, grid connection and investment. Tools used to facilitate citizen engagement in self-consumption, guiding
to increase involvement include public consultations in permitting through administrative procedures or demystifying the technology
procedures, self-consumption (encouraging all citizens to become and providing buyers guide. In Australia the Solar Consumer Guide
generators), energy communities and collective ownership, open is a government website to guide through the process from installing
participation in the elaboration of climate and energy transition to monitoring after installation; in the USA the Solar Energy
policies and targets or the provision of guidance and educational Technologies Office of the Federal Energy Department hosts the
tools to end users. Homeowner’s Guide to Going Solar website with the same goals;
in France Photovoltaique.info is a government financed website
The ability of local residents and communities to be involved in the providing guidance from planning to operations for both end-users
process of zoning for solar, siting solar projects and the permitting and professional installers; Singapore has a similar system, the
procedure is now widely recognised as a lever for increasing government entity “Energy Market Authority” created a website
community acceptance of large-scale projects. Accordingly, that provides guidance on the installation steps, payment schemes
many governments have ensured that public consultations and selling excess electricity. The installation steps section contains
of local residents and communities are an integral part of the a list of the qualified persons (architects or professional engineers)
permitting procedures for PV projects, including in Austria, Japan, with the permissions to install a PV system.
USA, France, UK. In Japan, from 2024 access to FiT and FiP for
systems over a specific size or requiring forestry management More generally, involvement can be seen under various angles:
authorisations is subject to a minimum number of public briefing
• Individual participation as the beneficiary of PV electricity:
sessions, and can include mandatory transparency on business
Prosumers are consumers producing part or all of their
plans. In the USA the government R-STEP (the Renewable Energy
electricity with PV while maintaining grid connection. Countries
Siting through Technical Engagement and Planning) program will
with prosumers policies, especially self-consumption ones are
support the creation and/or expansion of state-based programs
described in chapter 3. Energy access in emerging countries
that improve renewable energy planning and siting processes for
has shown for a long time that the implication of the populations
local communities. In France, public consultations are mandatory
significantly increases the adoption of decentralized energy
for ground mounted systems over 1MW. In Europe, the European
sources.
Union adopted a series of new and updated guidance documents
in May 2024 aimed at improving and streamlining permitting • Individual participation as group actions for the development
procedures to accelerate the deployment of renewables. These and use of PV electricity: Energy communities, and the
guidelines, recognising the importance of public participation for specific case of solar communities are involving communities
greater acceptability, recommend that “the needs and perspectives in producing and managing energy, allowing a higher
of citizens, local authorities and societal stakeholders should be involvement of stakeholders.
taken into account at all stages of renewable energy projects from
policy development to spatial planning and project development, • Collectives and groups participating in the development of
deployment and operation.”1 PV: Companies and utilities involved in the PV business are
known to become advocates of the energy transition, as are
local authorities that adopt PV as a tool in their climate change
1. Commission Recommendation (EU) 2024/1343 of 13 May 2024 on speeding up permit-
granting procedures for renewable energy and related infrastructure projects mitigation strategies.

65
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION

...........................................................................................................

,
The paragraphs below highlight some key factual elements that can The annually produced PV electricity is calculated based on
be used to improve the perception of PV in general, on economic, country-specific yields depending on the average yields of PV
social and environmental aspects. installations and irradiation conditions in each country. With
increasingly significant PV penetration rates in a large number of
Climate change has become one of the key challenges that our
countries, and an overwhelming dominance of China manufactured
societies has to overcome and PV is one of the primary solutions
modules, some changes have been made to the methodology used
for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector.
to determine avoided C02 in this report, compared to previous
Global energy related CO2eq emissions increased to 37 400 Mt2 years reports.
in 2023, up 1.6% on 2022, (compared to 0.9% from 2021 to 2022).
Because of the higher penetration rates, this report now considers
Increasing the share of PV in the grid’s electricity generation mix
that PV production replaces electricity with a CO2 content of the
can significantly reduce the emissions from power generation.
countries average grid mix (in the past, the CO2 content of marginal
The global average carbon intensity of electricity was around
production has been considered). This has significantly reduced
490 g CO2/kWh3 in 2023 (slightly up on 2022) whereas for 1 kWh
the “avoided” CO2, as PV now replaces average electricity, not just
produced by PV the CO2 emitted, taken on a life cycle basis, can be
the most polluting easily dispatched electricity. Additionally, the
as low as 15 g depending on technology and irradiation conditions.
inherent emissions of PV installed from 2022 has been uniformly
For example, the IEA PVPS Task 12 report from 2024 indicates that considered as monocrystalline China-manufactured modules,
for the analysed configurations, in the case of the PV plant installed independently of the country of installation4.
in the south of Italy (with an annual irradiation of about 1,820 kWh/
m2/y), the estimated greenhouse gas emissions are 17.1 g CO2 eq.
/kWh if the PV plant is equipped with mono-axial solar trackers and
CO2 avoided
20.7 g CO2 eq. /kWh if the modules are at fixed angle (34°).

The total CO2 emissions that are avoided by PV on a yearly basis

can be calculated considering the amounts of electricity that can
923 MT CO2eq
be produced annually by the cumulated PV capacities installed at
the end of 2023 and considering that these amounts replace equal Using this methodology, calculations show that the PV installed
amounts of electricity that would be generated by the respective capacity today avoids up to 923 million tonnes of CO2eq annually.
grid mixes of the different countries where these PV capacities are Thus, it avoids approximately 2.5% of the energy sector emissions.
installed. This is essentially due to the fact that PV is being massively installed
in countries having highly carbon intensive grid mixes, such as
China, India, Australia, Germany and Poland.

Figure 5.1 gives a view of the avoided CO2 emissions in the first 30
countries in ranking of avoided CO2 emissions, and which represent
in total over 98% of global avoided emissions. This figure displaying
the countries as a function of their installed PV capacities and grid
mix carbon intensities clearly shows their differential contribution
to the global avoided emissions and the high impact of their
respective grid mix compositions. The more CO2 the power mix in
a country emits, the more positively PV installations will contribute
to avoiding emissions.

4. Had previous years methodology been maintained, avoided CO2 would have been
2. https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2023 reported as 1 927 MT CO2eq., however with this updated methodology it is now reported
3.https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity-review-2024/ as 8923 MT CO2.eq

66
 IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

FIGURE 5.1: CO2 EMISSIONS AVOIDED BY PV

NATIONAL PV CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY 2023 (MW)

FIGURE 5.2A: AVOIDED CO2 EMISSIONS AS PERCENTAGE FIGURE 5.2B: AVOIDED CO2 EMISSIONS AS PERCENTAGE
OF ELECTRICITY SECTOR TOTAL EMISSIONS OF ENERGY SECTOR TOTAL EMISSIONS

18
Energy sector emissions *

16

14

12

10

8 37.4 GT CO2,eq
6

4 Emissions avoided by PV

2 0.93 GT
CO2,eq
0
a

dia

ina

nd

ly

a
ali

re
an

pa

US
Ita

na
la

* Energy related CO2 emissions from fuel combustion

In

Ch

Ko
str

rm

Ja

Po

et
Au

Vi
Ge

th
u
So

. .
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

67
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

VALUE FOR THE ECONOMY

...........................................................................................................

The turnover of the PV sector in 2023 amounted to around 400

billion USD. This number has been calculated based on the size
of the PV market (annual installations and cumulative capacities)
Global business value
and the average price value for installation and Operation &
Maintenance (O&M) specific to the different market segments and
countries. + 62% in 2023
Given the variety of existing maintenance contracts and cost, the
turnover specifically linked to O&M has not been considered in
detail. However, the global turnover related to O&M was estimated For the purposes of this report, the value of the PV sector for
at around 15 billion USD per year. This estimate can be considered the economy has been assessed based on the volume in MW of
as a lower range value, due to the assumptions made for its installations rather than by evaluating all the contributions of the
calculations. It does not take into account either the material cost of complete value chain. The assessment of the business value of
replacement and repowering, which is hardly visible, or the value the industry is in general more complex, due to the decentralized
of recycling. O&M costs have decreased over time and a part of PV production and the existence of transnational companies. However,
systems are not maintained through regular contracts (especially a specific approximation of the industrial business value of PV was
residential roof-top systems, unless they are monitored). performed for IEA PVPS major PV manufacturing countries and is
presented in a specific section below.
According to our estimates, in parallel to the growth of the annual
CONTRIBUTION TO THE GDP
market, the global business value of PV installations has increased
Figure 5.3 shows the estimated business value of the PV sector in
by around 62%. The global value for O&M increased at least 50%.
IEA PVPS reporting countries as compared to their national GDPs.
Between 2022 and 2023 the global business value increased
These values were determined based on the internal PV markets
an already considerable 25% - but this year’s increase is well
in each country, as described above, and hence they do not take
above that. Part of the increase is due to the reduction in system
imports or exports into account. Some countries benefited from
installation costs experienced in most markets in 2023 (even if the
exports that increased the business value they obtained through
drop in module prices wasn’t passed on to all markets in 2023),
the internal PV market while huge imports in other countries had
and part of it is due to the sheer size of the market increase. As in
the opposite effect. However, as already mentioned, the market
previous years, it is still important to note that this value increased
is integrated to the point that it would be extremely complex to
less than annual new installed volumes increased (90%). It is worth
assess the contribution from each part of the PV value chain.
noting that the O&M value is bound to grow further, powered
by increasing volumes of centralised systems, aging plants and As shown by Figure 5.3, the business value of PV compared to GDP
repowering operations. is growing as national market sizes increase – China, Spain and
Austria all hit above 0.5% of GDP (this is +0.1% for China and over
+0.25% for Austria), whilst a further six of the selected countries
Turnover PV are above 0.3%. On a global scale, PV business value represents
around 0.40% of the GDP, up from 0.25% in 2022, compared to

400 Billion USD around 2.96% for energy investments.

This level of investment is very close to global investments in all

other generating technologies – but there is still scope for more,
recognising that in the same year, over 1 000 billion USD were
invested in fossil fuels.
O&M In the IEA PVPS countries, the top 3 countries by volume of
investment (China, USA, Germany) each roughly doubled their

15 Billion USD investment level, as did Italy.

68
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

FIGURE 5.3: BUSINESS VALUE OF THE PV MARKET IN 2023 COMPARED TO GDP IN% IN 2023

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

% 0.4

0.3

0.2

0,1

ea
d

y
lan

lia
l

um
en

or
ga

d
ia

ce
an

n
ain
ina

lan
A
tra

ly
str

hK

pa
er

ed
rtu

an
rm

lgi

US
Ita
Ch

Sp

itz

Fin
Au

Ja
Sw

Fr
Be
Po

Au

ut
Ge
Sw

So
Business Value of PV Installation Business Value of PV O&M

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

TABLE 5.1: BUSINESS VALUE: TOP 10 COUNTRIES IN FIGURE 5.4: CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL GDP OF PV
ABSOLUTE VALUE BUSINESS VALUE AND ENERGY SECTOR INVESTMENTS

Energy Investment *
RANK COUNTRY BILLION US$

1 CHINA 130

2 USA 44 2.96%
3 GERMANY 20
Power Sector
4 SPAIN 8.5 Investment
5 JAPAN 7.5
1.23%
6 ITALY 6.9 PV business Value
7 AUSTRALIA 5.9

8 FRANCE 5.4
0.4%
9 SWITZERLAND 4.5

10 SOUTH KOREA 3.1

*Investment in the power sector, fuel supply and end-use & efficiency
. .
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

69
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

VALUE FOR THE ECONOMY / CONTINUED

...........................................................................................................

Even though assessing the detailed contributions of the different FIGURE 5.5A: ABSOLUTE PV INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS VALUE
parts of the whole PV value chain is hardly possible in this report due IN 2023
to the level of integration of the market, an approximate evaluation
of the industrial business value of PV has been performed and the 90000
results detailed for IEA PVPS major PV manufacturing countries.
80000
The evaluation was made based on the production volumes and

Industrial business value of PV (Million USD)

70000
manufacturing shares of countries for polysilicon, wafers, cells and
modules, including thin film technologies, as detailed in Chapter 60000
4, as well as on an average estimated price for each of these four
50000
segments. The prices taken into account are based on average
prices reported by member countries. We consider that equipment 40000
and materials are included in this computed value. BoS, including
30000
inverters are not considered here.
20000
The estimated global industrial value of PV established itself at
around 104.7 billion USD in 2023, up from 93.6 billion USD in 10000

2022 (+12%). This relatively low growth is due to the significant 0

price drop in average module and system costs in China (down to China South Korea Malaysia USA Europe Japan Other
0.14 USD/W or just 61% of the 0.23 USD/W cost in 2022). Figure
5.5A, 5.5 B and 5.5C show for IEA PVPS major PV manufacturing PolySi Wafers Cells Modules
countries the estimated contribution of each step of the value chain
in the PV industrial value for each country in absolute and relative .
terms as well as the comparison of this value to their GDP. SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

FIGURE 5.5B: PV INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS VALUE ALONG FIGURE 5.5C: PV INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS VALUE AS SHARE
THE VALUE CHAIN IN 2023 OF GDP IN 2023
82 BILL 0.6 BILL 3.9 BILL 5.2 BILL 2.6 BILL 0.1 BILL 10.5 BILL
USD USD USD USD USD USD USD 1,0
100
0,9
90
Share of country total PV industrial value

0,8
80
0,7
70
SHARE OF GPD (%)

0,6
60
0,5
50
0,4
40

30 0,3

20 0,2

10 0,1

0 0,0
China South Korea Malaysia USA Europe Japan Other China South Korea Malaysia USA Europe Japan

PolySi Wafers Cells Modules PolySi Wafer Cell Module

. .
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

70
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

China is by far the predominant manufacturing country in all steps

of the PV value chain, with an approximate share of 0.46% of its
GDP (up just 0.06% since 2022) represented by the PV Industry
PV sector employed an estimated
(polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules). As in previous years,
despite much lower production volumes, the PV industry in
Malaysia represents a significantly higher share of the country’s
GDP compared to China, stable at between 0.9% and 1%. As the
7.2 million people in
many projects in the USA come online, the share in the USA is
expected to become visible. 2023
For the BoS, the industry is significantly more distributed, and As the leading producer of PV products and the world’s largest
production occurs in many countries. It is not counted as such installation market by a long margin, China is markedly leading
here, with many local manufacturers and suppliers servicing the PV employment with around 5.1 million jobs in 2023, which
PV industry present across the world in cabling, supports and corresponds to a significantly higher number of jobs than anywhere
electrical protections; an analysis would make sense to grasp else. Lower by one order of magnitude, Brazil, the USA, and
the extent of the PV industry impact on the countries’ economic India follow, with between 250 000 and 300 000 FTE (Full Time
landscape but is not within the scope of this report. Equivalent). There are an estimated 500 000 FTE in the European
Union. Other countries with large workforces included Malaysia,
Thailand, although estimations are difficult. Japan has a steady PV
market and maintains approximately 70 000 jobs.
SOCIAL IMPACTS
.......................................................................................................... Generally, in good correlation with the market evolutions, PV
EMPLOYMENT IN PV employment expanded where the market developed. As the scale
Figure 5.6 gives an overview of the total direct full-time equivalent of manufacturing increases, so too does automation, reducing the
jobs in IEA PVPS countries and India. Reported numbers have job intensity per GW in the manufacturing sector. On the other
been established based on the IEA PVPS National Survey Reports end of the spectrum, residential (distributed) PV deployment has
and additional sources such as the IRENA jobs database. It the highest job intensity along the value chain – although it varies
should be noted that these numbers are strongly dependent on significantly in intensity/MW between developing countries and
the assumptions and field of activities considered in the upstream developed countries.
and downstream sectors and represent an estimate in the best When specifically focusing on development and installation
case and will diverge with those reported in other sources for this activities, more labour intensive than manufacturing, on average
reason. the job intensity ranges from 3 FTE/MW for utility scale PV in
The methodology used takes data provided by reporting countries developed countries with established markets, to up to 20 FTE/MW
on the upstream (industrial) and downstream (distributed and utility for distributed systems in developing countries.
scale PV installation and O&M) job numbers, then extrapolates to
other markets depending on their respective market specifics. A
distinction is made between countries in developed economies
having a costly, low intensity work market and the emerging
economies with an affordable work force, as well as economies
somewhere between these two, where labour costs are mid-
range. Manufacturing numbers are based on industry reports and
additional sources and split according to the same methodology.
Installation numbers are always an approximation.

This report estimates that the PV sector employed in the order

of 7.2 million people globally at the end of 2023. An estimated
1.9 million were employed in the upstream part, including materials
and equipment, while 5.3 million were active in the downstream
part, including O&M.

71
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

SOCIAL IMPACTS / CONTINUED

...........................................................................................................

FIGURE 5.6: GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT IN PV PER COUNTRY

0.50

0.45

0.40

0.35

0.30

0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

itz a

d
ina

pe

il

dia

ain

Vi d
m

ico

ile

iye

So UAE
n

ia

Pa a

Au s

ce

Ro al
ia
ipe

d
az

d
ric

re

nc

ali
an

ta

lan
an

lan

pa
US

So ays

an
na

Ch

lan

ee

na
ro

ex

rk
Ch

rtu
In

Sp

kis
Ko
Br

Ta

str
a
rm

ail

Ja

Af

er
Po
et
Eu

Tü

Gr
Fr

Ca
al

er

Po
Th

se
Ge

uh
h
M

th
ut

Sw
ine

Ne
Ch

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

O&M generates many manual jobs while the entire PV value chain local manufacturing gained traction in 2021 and remained in 2022
creates good quality jobs, from research centres to manufacturing. despite shipping costs returning to pre-pandemic levels early in the
year. Countries such as India and the USA, to name a few, are
With an estimated total of 7.2 million jobs in the solar PV sector
pushing hard to develop a local industry and increase their partial
worldwide in 2023, PV employs well above one third of the total
independence. However, over 2023, increasing volumes of new
renewable energy workforce and remains number one in the
manufacturing capacity came online in China, and the market cost
employment ranking of the global renewable energy sector, as
of modules plummeted due to significant oversupply. As the low
new solar capacity additions largey outnumber other renewables
module costs were sustained through the end of 2023 and into 2024,
sources, this is not expected to diminish.
different planned manufacturing facilities in Europe were cancelled
LOCAL MANUFACTURING (Germany), as investors called on EU countries to be more reactive
The emergence of PV as a mainstream technology woke up faced with the Chinese oversupply and the attractive incentives
appetites for local manufacturing and job creation at all levels of offered in the USA. New manufacturing capacities require skilled
the value chain. Looking at IEA PVPS member countries only a workforces – and it is increasingly becoming a potential barrier; for
few countries have pushed through different schemes for local example, Europe has identified the need to train at least 100 000
manufacturing in recent years, namely Canada, Türkiye and the new people over 3 years for the PV industry.
USA whilst others have at least initiated studies and advanced
IMPACT ON ELECTRICITY BILLS
projects (France). Elsewhere, some countries have succeeded
The impact of developing PV on electricity bills works through three
in bringing manufacturers to produce PV components in their
separate mechanisms; the cost of support mechanisms; the cost of
country, for example in Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand. South
electricity on wholesale markets and the cost of grid access fees.
Africa initiated local measures for partnerships with Chinese
manufactures but have not yet been able to follow through. Other Whilst in the past these three elements were seen as burdens, the
countries, such as Chile and Saudia Arabia seem to be thinking increasing competitivity of photovoltaics and the fluctuations of
about it. With the disruptions in the PV value chain caused by the wholesale electricity costs over the past 3 years can allow one to
pandemic and the increased cost of shipment, the question of consider them as opportunities:

72
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

Firstly, PV is reimbursing its support mechanisms: the impact in 2023, fast making traditional coal or gas services redundant,
of the increase in gas prices resulting from sanctions due to the whilst distributed batteries are reducing service loads on turbine
war in Ukraine over 2022 and 2023 has resulted in PV (and other generation. In the USA, solar power plants across several different
renewables) playing a much greater role in security of supply than states and extreme weather events have been key generators
intended so far. With spot market prices skyrocketing across Europe during crises.
due to record high gas process, PV suddenly become not only
PV FOR SOCIAL POLICIES
competitive but desirable from an economical point of view. Those
countries running support mechanism on Contracts for Difference Besides its direct value for the economy and the jobs that it creates,
even generated positive cash flow for governments, as renewable both making contribution to the prosperity of the countries in which
generators sold high on the market but reimbursed the state to it is being installed and manufactured, PV entails additional positive
reach agreed on contract levels for each MWh generated. In the implications on the social level if leveraged with appropriate
UK, France, solar CfD contracts funnelled back millions of dollars policies.
to governments in 2022 (when market costs were exceptionally
high) and in 2023 - despite market caps and reforms and lower PV can be a competitive alternative to increase energy access
market costs) in France, support mechanisms for solar raised 724 in remote rural areas not connected to power grids. Improved
million euros (761 million USD) in 2022 and a further 81.3 million energy access can benefit rural business performance, free up
euros (88.9 million USD) in 2023 for the government and allowed workers’ time, provide more studying hours for children, improve
the government to reduce taxes on electricity to contain prices health through cleaner cooking, and create or enhance jobs as a
for consumers. In Austria, fees to finance support mechanisms result. Electrification is a key factor to reduce poverty and increase
collected in electricity bills were cancelled in 2022. In the ACT education, with a direct impact on women’s and children’s life
in Australia, CfD contracts are anticipated to limited consumer standards in many regions in the world. In that respect, PV would
electricity price to below inflation raises, under 5%, compared to a deserve a significant attention for electrification.
national average of over 20%.
In an increasing number of countries with stable electricity networks
Secondly, PV electricity generation is being sold on the markets and close to total electrification, programs are or have been
in quantities sufficient to reduce market costs, especially in established to assist low-income families to install grid connected
countries where peak consumption is concordant with solar solar, either through means tested rebates, loans or gifts from
generation. Numerous studies in various countries have shown state agencies or private organisations including in the USA at
that PV reduces wholesale market prices for electricity at the the national, state, and local levels, as well as Australia, UK. The
time of production – negative prices illustrate this and are most development of energy communities is also being used as a tool
often seen when high solar (or wind) generation occurs at low to provide cheaper solar electricity to in need consumers in some
load times. With the exception of Spain and Portugal , most of the countries such as Italy, Portugal. With the combination of high and
Western European electricity markets saw dozens to hundreds of volatile electricity prices experienced across many countries in the
hours of negative prices in 2023, and are expected to see more in past 3 years, self-consumption of increasingly cheap solar is more
2024 – with similar events in the USA, (South) Australia and China. and more often seen as the best solution to maintaining electricity
The savings for electricity consumers and the society, in general, bill affordability.
is difficult to compute but most studies conclude on significant
Increasingly cheap solar and self-consumption regulations offer
savings and additionally, cost decrease in the distribution grid up
opportunities for social welfare programs aimed at alleviating
to a certain penetration of PV. In the USA state of Texas’s grid, it
energy poverty. The energy crisis of 2022 increased the
is projected that renewables will save $6 billion USD in net system
competitiveness of PV to the extent that it could reduce the
operating costs in 20241.
electricity bill of families, municipalities and companies, not only
Thirdly, solar, generally combined with batteries, has demonstrated through direct self-consumption but also through delocalized (or
its ability to provide key network stability services cheaper than virtual) self-consumption.
fossil fuel plants can – for example, in the nuclear-reliant France,
Some more specific examples of energy poverty programs
delayed maintenance of the nuclear portfolio in 2022 led the
involving solar include:
transmission grid manager to call on renewables to step up in
supplying services necessary to the grid, in particular voltage In Malaysia, rural electrification is still a priority of the government,
stability – whilst coal, heavy oil and additional gas facilities could with a projected 100% electrification rate by 2025. Rural
have supplied theses services, renewables were by far the electrification is done together with utilities as a form of public-
most economical, and climate friendly, solution. In Australia, big private partnership. In remote Sarawak, the Sarawak Alternative
batteries supply of frequency control ancillary services passed 50% Rural Electrification Scheme (SARES) has electrified almost 5 000
1.https://poweralliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/NERA-Astrape-White- households in 192 villages since its launch in 2016 and has received
Paper-20230405_Final.pdf

73
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

SOCIAL IMPACTS / CONTINUED

...........................................................................................................

regional recognition in 2019. Solar PV and hybrid systems are In the USA, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) contained 145 million
often used in this scheme, as well as micro hydro-technologies. USD in grants, 18 billion USD in loans, and carve-outs within the
low-income bonus to the Investment Tax Credit for Tribal solar
In South Korea, with the financial aid from Seoul Metropolitan
deployment to address disparity of electricity access for indigenous
government, a non-profit organization, Energy Peace Foundation,
communities. The IRA also contained significant incentives for
and Solar Terrace company installed 30 kW of mini-PV systems for
rural electrification, as well as measures targeted towards energy
100 energy-vulnerable households (300 W/household). This type of
access for low-income communities, historically marginalized
mini-PV installations is becoming popular in South Korea to reduce
communities, and communities with higher rates of unemployment
the electricity bill burden during the summer.
as a result of the energy transition.
In Italy, the government has established a fund to finance self-
In Brazil, the program “Luz para todos” was launched in November
consumption systems of between 2 kWp and 6 kWp for households
2023, with the goal of improving rural electrification through
in economic difficulty across 2024 and 2025; a municipality in
renewable energies. In its new phase “Luz Para Todos Minha Casa
Sardinia collaborated with an energy services operator in 2017
Minha Vida”, the program aims to install 500 000 solar panels in
where the municipality purchased PV systems then sold on loan
low-income households across the country. The primary objective
to families in energy poverty conditions, to make them benefit
of this new phase is to lower electricity costs while increasing
from PV self-consumption and thus reduce their energy bills. The
access to renewable energy.
revenues of the net-billing feed a public fund, in order to finance
the maintenance of the plants or possibly the purchase of other In Chile, the Energy inclusion program founded in 2018, brings
plants for other families. The scheme has been replicated in other together international collaboration and public-private funds to
municipalities, and an energy poverty observatory has been set create concrete actions to improve the electricity conditions
up. of vulnerable households under innovative business models
adapted to their actual conditions, strengthening local economic
In Australia, a number of measures were announced by State
development and labor insertion. One example of these projects
Governments in 2020 and have been maintained in 2023 going
includes the financial support to build a solar refrigeration center
from interest free loans or even complete subsidies (Solar for
for a fishing village.
Low Income Households for systems with an installed capacity
up to 3 kW). Additional measures tackling rural electrification
include a budget to support feasibility studies looking at microgrid
technologies to replace, upgrade or supplement existing electricity
supply and to finance the deployment of PV to reduce the use of
diesel.

In France, rural electrification is addressed in overseas territories

and isolated alpine areas through budgets available for off-grid
electricity production, electric vehicle charging points, or grid-
connection financing, whilst the widespread availability of micro-PV
kits (1 or 2 modules) is leading to small investments by many low
income families. Social housing organisations have been granted
simplified conditions for managing collective self-consumption
systems on social housing as an indirect incentive to allow low
income families to benefit from self-consumption.

74
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

PV END-OF-LIFE
...........................................................................................................

The volume of PV modules reaching the end of their useful (first) Recycling requirements are currently typically achieved through
lifetime is still marginal compared to the volumes of new PV modules mechanical processes which rely on
deployed in the market. However, as the PV market develops fast
1. removal of some components (e.g., frame, junction box,
and often faster than anticipated, the same trends are expected to be
cables),
witnessed for end-of-life PV module streams. Forecasting precisely
end-of-life PV module streams is a complex exercise for several 2. mechanical shredding,
reasons. PV modules may reach the end of their useful lifetime for
different reasons - significant performance degradations, premature 3. sorting into different material categories, taking advantage of
failures from production defects, damages from transportation and physical property differences (weight, conductivity, density, …)
installation or premature dismantling related to insurance claims, amongst the recovered materials (plastics, glass, metals).
repowering, or revamping. These modules then enter end of life
These mechanical recycling processes are usually performed by
streams anywhere from after just one year or up to thirty years
incumbent recycling actors (e.g., EEE recyclers, metal recyclers,
or more. A large disparity in useful lifetime is observed between
glass recyclers) who leverage existing recycling facilities, equipment
distributed and centralized applications, with shorter useful lifetimes
and expertise, eventually reaching recycle at a relatively low net
observed in centralized systems, mostly driven by economic
cost while enabling WEEE-compliant recovery rates. Processes
considerations, i.e. the hardware is uninstalled due to financial
based on delamination (mechanical delamination (e.g., hot-knife) or
lifetimes and not technical failures. The market for second-life PV
thermal delamination (e.g., pyrolysis, incineration)) also exist and
modules is a further source of uncertainty in end-of-life PV module
are implemented at a commercial level in some rare cases only.
streams forecasts.
Combined with some subsequent chemical process, such recycling
routes have the potential to recover materials with higher levels
Depending on the country and region, end-of-life PV modules may of purity (e.g., glass, silicon) or to recover high-value or critical
be treated under PV-specific regulations or under general waste materials (e.g., silver). However, they are associated with higher
and disposal-related regulations. net costs and the WEEE Directive requirements are not stringent
enough to provide a regulatory-push for such processes.
In the EU, end-of-life PV module streams are regulated by the WEEE
(Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment) Directive since 2012. In other regions, country specific approaches have been taken. In
The Directive is based on the extended producer responsibility Asia, in China, two demonstration lines for PV waste recycling were
principle that stipulates those producers (the term broadly refers set up after a 2019-22 national R&D program focused on recycling
to manufacturers, distributors, sellers and importers) placing PV crystalline silicon PV modules, and in April 2022 the PV Recycle
modules on the EU market (regardless of where the PV modules Industry Development Center in Jiaxing, Zhejiang province was set
were manufactured) are liable for the costs of PV waste collection, up as a public institution affiliated with the Ministry of Industry and
treatment and monitoring. Producers can choose to operate their Information Technology. In Australia, in some states, PV modules
own take-back and recycling scheme or join existing ones. The are banned from landfill and must be treated in the electronic
WEEE Directive sets collection, recovery and preparation for re- waste streams. Limited facilities exist to undertake recycling,
use and recycle minimum requirements, which are expressed in however a Solar PV Stewardship pilot project was opened first
percentage by mass. for decentralized PV waste and then utility scale waste in 2024.
In Japan, from July 2022, setting aside of future cost of EoL PV
systems became compulsory for solar power generation facilities
with more than 10kW installed capacity under the FIT program.
Owners of PV systems who fail to make reserves for dismantling
and removal of PV modules may be subject to revocation of FIT.
The Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission
Operator, OCTT, is responsible for managing the reserves. Part of
the reserve is expected to cover the cost of recycling of PV modules.
In September 2021, the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
under the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry published a
guideline. In the USA by early 2024 there were nearly 30 recyclers
listed in an Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy website,
built as part of the National PV Recycling Program founded in 2016.

75
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

PV END-OF-LIFE / CONTINUED
...........................................................................................................

Thin film cadmium-telluride panels, which represent a smaller part

of the solar market, undergo a specific recycling process with a
USA manufacturer running dedicated recycling facilities for thin
film panels which recover the semiconductor material (cadmium
and tellurium) in addition to glass and copper. The Inflation
Reduction Act also contained limited incentives for the construction
of recycling facilities for renewable energy technology, and several
announcements of recycling facilities have been made since its
passage in August 2022.

76
 six
COMPETITIVENESS OF PV
ELECTRICITY IN 2023

The rapid price decline that PV experienced in the last years price and market design that favour gas-fuelled electricity. Since
has already opened possibilities to develop PV systems in many all sources of electricity have benefited at some point from such
locations with limited or no financial incentives. However, the road support, the question of the competitiveness of PV should be
to full competitiveness of PV systems with conventional electricity considered carefully. Hereunder, we will look at the key elements
sources requires answering many questions and bringing driving the competitiveness of PV solutions.
innovative financial solutions, especially to emerging challenges.

This section aims at defining where PV stands regarding its own

competitiveness, starting with a survey of module and system MODULE PRICES
prices in several IEA PVPS reporting countries. Given the number .............................................................................................................
of parameters involved in competitiveness simulations, this
chapter will mostly highlight the comparative situation in key
countries. Prices are often averaged and should always be looked The very first period of PV market development can be considered
at as segment related. starting from the first prototypes to small-scale production leading
to a total PV installed capacity of around 2 GW. During this first
The question of competitiveness should always be contemplated phase, price reductions corresponding to a learning rate of 20%
in the context of a market environment created for conventional were achieved: this allowed the total PV installed capacity to
technologies and sometimes distorted by historical or existing continue growing further. At that point, prices stabilized until the
incentives. The fast development of nuclear in some countries in total capacity reached around 10 GW: this period is known as the
the last 50 years is a perfect example of policy-driven investments, time of low availability of polysilicon that maintained prices at a
where governments imposed the way to go, rather than letting the high level. Then, a third period started which is still the case today,
market decide. The oil and gas markets are also perfect examples beginning with the mass production of PV, especially in China.
of policy-driven energies which are deemed too important not to During this period ranging from 10 GW to current levels, significant
be controlled. PV competitiveness should therefore be considered economies of scale have led to a learning rate of 40% - the supply
in this same respect, rather than the simple idea that it should chain disruptions due to COVID having slowed it slightly. The
be considered competitive without any regulatory or financial present price drops due to overcapacity have compensated in
support. There are also further barriers, other than economic, for part for the stable prices in the post-covid period. In a few years
PV to become the obvious alternative to coal (rather than gas) for it will be possible to better evaluate the impact of the significant
utilities. Currently, many already unprofitable coal power plants manufacturing capacity increases that occurred in 2023 and 2024.
are still in operation because the regulatory and financial structure
is not tailored for so many coal units to become stranded assets.
In addition, the choice of alternatives to coal is frequently not
motivated by pure economics but is biased towards an electricity

77
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

MODULE PRICES / CONTINUED

...........................................................................................................

FIGURE 6.1: PV MODULES SPOT PRICES LEARNING CURVE (1992-2023)

1000
LR = 23%

100
Module spot price [USD/W]

Small scale production Polysilicon Mass production

LR = 20% shortage LR = 40%

10

Supply chain Manufacturing

disruption overcapacity

0.1
0 0.11 10 100 1000 10000

Total PV installed capacity (GW)

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & BECQUEREL INSTITUTE

FIGURE 6.2: EVOLUTION OF PV MODULE PRICES RANGE IN USD/W

3
USD/W

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

78
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

On average, the price of PV modules in 2023 (shown in Figure was subject to increases in transportation costs. Costs and hence
6.3) accounted for approximately 40% and 50% of the lowest prices remained high through 2022, and manufacturers upgraded
achievable prices that have been reported for utility scale systems. capacity through this time. By 2023 new manufacturing capacity
In 2023, the lowest price of modules in the reporting countries was coming online as there was a polysilicon price drop that
was around 0.14 USD/W, significantly below anything ever seen cascaded through to cells and modules, and with a surge in module
before. This price is a direct consequence of the large volumes of availability, prices began to drop. By the end of 2023, and despite
manufacturing that came online in 2023, well above the market’s important efforts in China to stimulate the market enough to absorb
capacity to absorb. Low as it was, prices continued to drop into the surge in manufacturing capacity, oversupply was impacting the
2024 and went under 0.10 USD/W. module price for Chinese-made modules. The consequences of the
policy decisions in the USA in years previous to the ramping up of
Looking back to understand past and present price trends, the
manufacturing capacity meant the bulk of Chinese modules - that
Chinese decision to strictly limit PV subsidies in May 2018 led to
were not installed domestically - were exported to Europe. By late
a new imbalance between production and demand, with dozens
December 2023, mainstream modules had reached costs that
of GW of new production capacities added in 2017 and 2018 in
analysts considered under manufacturing cost. Looking in depth at
all segments of the value chain while the global PV market was
the revenues of some manufacturers among the most competitive,
stagnating. The price decrease that followed accelerated some
it appears that average sales are above these low prices. It can also
project development and can be considered at least partially
be assumed that such prices are obtained with new production lines
responsible for the market growth in 2020. The year 2021 had
in which production costs are significantly lower than previously
seen the rise of multiple raw material prices. In particular, PV
existing ones.
polysilicon average spot prices rose significantly during the year,
up from around 10 USD/kg in early 2021. Other key raw materials Higher module prices are still observed, specifically in the
such as PV glass, copper or aluminium maintained their high residential segment in countries with historically high prices such
prices reached at the end of 2020 and the whole PV value chain as Japan or France.

FIGURE 6.3: INDICATIVE MODULE PRICES IN SELECTED REPORTING COUNTRIES

0.8
Annual PV
market 2023 [GW]
0.7

0.6
250 GW
0.5
USD/W

0.4 35 GW

0.3
5 GW

0.2

0.1

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

79
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

SYSTEM PRICES
...........................................................................................................

Reported prices for PV systems vary widely and depend on a applications can be higher. The large range of reported prices in
variety of factors including system size, location, customer type, Figure 6.5 is a function of the country and project-specific factors.
connection to an electricity grid, technical specifications, and the The highest prices haven’t been included in the figures given the
extent to which end-user prices reflect the real costs of all the very low level of installations: in general, off-grid prices have been
components. For more detailed information, the reader is directed averaged in the figures for readability reasons.
to each country’s national survey report on the IEA PVPS website
(www.iea-pvps.org). Four specific segments are developing that are likely to grow
significantly in volume in countries with limited land. System prices
Figure 6.4 shows the range of system prices in the global PV in these segments can vary widely, both from local labour and
market in 2023. It shows that around 75% of the PV market consists material costs but also given the inherent constraints specific to
of prices below 1 USD/W. Large distributed PV systems start at the sites used.
around 0.70 USD/W while utility-scale PV saw prices as low as
0.42 USD/W. BIPV can be seen as a series of segments where the • Floating PV – costs vary with anchoring for local weather,
prices can significantly diverge. Off-grid applications suffer from a salinity, system size and grid connection.
similar situation, with totally different cases illustrated at different • Linear PV systems along roads, trainline and canals – costs
prices. In general, the price range decreased from the previous vary depending on size, electrical architecture and grid
year for all applications. connection, and can be as low as ground mounted utility scale
On average, system prices for the lowest-priced off-grid systems but tend to be higher.
applications are significantly higher than for the lowest-priced grid- • Parking canopies over commercial and industrial car parks –
connected applications. This is mainly attributable to the relatively costs vary depending on the type of supports and system size,
higher transport costs to access the sites. Indeed, large-scale but are above ground mounted system costs.
off-grid systems are often installed in places far from the grid but
also far from major towns and highways. Higher prices asked for • Agrivoltaics either in inter-row grazing or above crops – costs
such installations also depend on higher costs for the transport of vary from as low as utility scale ground mounted systems
components, and technicians, without even mentioning the higher when associated with grazing up to BIPV-level costs for
costs of maintenance. In 2023, the lowest system prices in the off- specialised mobile systems above crops
grid sector, irrespective of the type of application, typically ranged
More expensive grid-connected system prices are often associated
from about 2 USD/W to 6 USD/W but prices for some specific
with roof-integrated slates, tiles, building integrated designs or
single bespoke projects: BIPV systems in general are considered
more expensive when using dedicated components, however the
drop in module prices is likely to impact some, but not all, BIPV
products.

80
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

FIGURE 6.4: 2023 PV MARKET COSTS RANGES

Note: Utility and distributed PV are distributed according to volumes and costs. Floating, Linear, AgriPV and Offgrid PV are indicative average maximum /

. minimum price points; the real costs are spread between these two points with outliers
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

In 2023 residential PV systems price typically ranged from across the world – residential systems have, in reality, a much
0.78 USD/W to 2.6 USD/W (with costs in China below this and wider range depending on local contexts, with prices below this
costs above this in Switzerland) while utility-scale PV systems range depending on labour and administrative costs and the size
prices typically ranged from 0.42 USD/W to 1.2 USD/W in 2023 of systems, and prices going above this range for systems using
according to the data collected – a wider range than in 2022, but BIPV products, high end inverters and monitoring or simply scarce
expected given the module price drop between the beginning and labour. Utility scale systems can also go beyond this, particularly
end of the year. These typical price ranges give an overview of the on the bottom range, when project developers work aggressively
market, but they don’t consider the full range of prices practiced to secure land or for particularly large systems.

81
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

FIGURE 6.5: EVOLUTION OF RESIDENTIAL AND GROUND MOUNTED SYSTEMS PRICE RANGE 2013 - 2023 (USD/W)

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

FIGURE 6.6: INDICATIVE INSTALLED SYSTEM PRICES IN SELECTED IEA PVPS REPORTING COUNTRIES IN 2023

7
Annual PV market 2023 [GW]
6

5
USD/W

150 GW
4

3 50 GW

1 5 GW

0
Off-grid Distributed- Distributed- Distributed- Centralized
Residential Commercial Industrial

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

82
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

The lowest achievable installed price of grid-connected systems GRID PARITY

in 2023 also varied between countries as shown in Figure 6.6. Grid Parity (or Socket Parity) refers to the moment when PV can
The average price of these systems is tied to the segment. Large produce electricity (the Levelized Cost of Electricity or LCOE) at a
grid-connected installations can have either lower system prices price below the price of electricity bought from the grid. While this
depending on the economies of scale achieved, or higher system is valid for pure players (the so-called “grid price” refers to the price
prices where the nature of the building integration and installation, of electricity on the market), this is based on two assumptions for
degree of innovation, learning costs in project management and prosumers (producers who are also consumers of electricity):
the price of custom-made modules may be considered as quite
• That PV electricity can be consumed locally (either in real-
significant factors. In summary, system prices for utility-scale
time or through some compensation scheme such as local or
PV mostly decreased by the end of 2023, following the trends of
delocalized net metering);
module prices and the balance of the system, while soft costs and
margins remained stable, and interest rates rose. System prices • That all the components of the retail price of electricity can be
below 0.6 USD/W for large-scale PV systems were common in compensated when it has been produced by PV and locally
very competitive tenders and in China. The question of the lowest consumed.
CAPEX is not always representative of the lowest LCOE (Levelized
Cost of Electricity): the case of utility-scale PV with trackers Technical solutions can be used to increases the self-consumption
illustrates this, with additional CAPEX translating into a sgenerally level (demand-side management including EV charging or direct
lower LCOE. use to heat water with heat pumps, local electricity storage,
reduction of the PV system size, delocalized self-consumption,
Additional information about the systems and prices reported energy communities, etc.).
for most countries can be found in the various National Survey
Reports. If only a part of the electricity produced can be self-consumed, even
after actioning levers for increased self-consumption, as mentioned
above, then the remaining part must be injected into the grid and
should generate revenues of the same order as, at least, any
COST OF PV ELECTRICITY centralized production of electricity. Today this is often guaranteed
............................................................................................................. for small size installations by the possibility of receiving a FiT (or
similar) for the injected electricity through net billing schemes.
In order to compete in the electricity sector, PV technologies However, when grids are under strain, when local or regional
need to provide electricity at a cost equal to or below the cost of generation exceeds demand, it is possible that excess electricity
other technologies – unless other criteria are a determining factor. either cannot be injected into the grid (i.e. must be curtailed) or will
Obviously, power generation technologies are providing electricity not be financially compensated – as may soon be the case in parts
at different costs, depending on their nature, the cost of fuel, the of Australia, Austria, USA, amongst other countries experiencing
cost of maintenance and the number of operating hours during grid constraints in the residential and commercial sectors.
which they are delivering electricity. The price paid for electricity by consumers is composed in general
The competitiveness of PV can be defined simply as the moment of four main components:
when, in a given situation, PV can produce electricity at a cheaper • The procurement price of electricity, on electricity markets
price than other sources of electricity that could have delivered plus the margins of the reseller;
electricity at the same time. Therefore, the competitiveness of a
PV system is linked to the location, the technology, the cost of • Grid costs and fees, partially linked to the consumption,
capital, and the cost of the PV system itself, which highly depends partially fixed; the key challenge is their future evolution;
on the nature of the installation and its size. However, it will also
• Taxes;
depend on the environment in which the system will operate. Off-
grid applications in competition with diesel-based generation will • Levies (used among other things to finance the incentives
not be competitive at the same moment as a large utility-scale for some renewable sources, social programmes, solidarity
PV installation competing with the wholesale prices on electricity between regions etc.);
markets. In sum, the competitiveness of PV is connected to the
type of PV system and its environment. If the electricity procurement price can be compensated, the two
other components require considering the system impact of such

83
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

COST OF PV ELECTRICITY / CONTINUED

...........................................................................................................

measures: with tax loss on one side and the lack of financing of Any support or compensation measures for the excess electricity
distribution and transmission grids on the other. While the debate after self-consumption should take into account these last elements
on taxes can be simple, since PV installations are generating taxes and the question of equitable and ethical sharing of the cost burden
as well, the one on grid financing is more complex. Even if self- for grids and supports schemes should become an increasingly
consumed electricity could be fully compensated, alternative ways important subject as PV penetration rates increase.
to finance the grid should be considered given the loss of revenues
for grid operators - or a better understanding of PV positive impacts
on the grid should be achieved.

FIGURE 6.7: LCOE OF PV ELECTRICITY AS A FUNCTION OF SOLAR IRRADIANCE & RETAIL PRICES IN KEY MARKETS*

500

450 Germany
Belgium
400 Australia
Denmark
Price of Electricity in USD/MWh

Italy
350

300 Austria
Netherlands
China Portugal Spain
Finland Sweden France
250
Switzerland South Korea
200 Japan
USA
150
Türkiye
100

50

0
800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

Yield kWh/ kW /y ear

LCOE at a system price of 0,5 USD/Wp LCOE at a system price of 1 USD/Wp LCOE at a system price of 2 USD/Wp

.
*NOTE: THE COUNTRY YIELD (SOLAR IRRDIANCE) HERE SHOWN MUST BE CONSIDERED AS AN AVERAGE SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

THE LOWEST ELECTRICITY PRICES (RESPECTIVELY THE HIGHEST) DISPLAYED PER COUNTRY SHOULD BE SEEN
AS AN AVERAGE VALUE FOR INDUSTRIAL CONSUMERS (RESPECTIVELY RESIDENTIAL CONSUMERS).

Figure 6.7 shows the range of retail prices in selected countries for residential customers. In 2022, retail and commercial/industrial
based on their average solar resource and the indicative PV electricity prices rose quite steeply in most countries, increasing the
electricity threshold for three different system prices (0.5, 1 and competitiveness of PV – and whilst in many countries, particularly
2 USD/W, converted into LCOE). Green dots are cases where PV in the EU, commercial electricity prices dropped slowly through
is competitive in most of the cases. Blue dots show where it really 2023 and again in 2024, the drop in module prices means that
depends on the system prices and the retail prices of electricity. competitiveness is here to stay.

The figure demonstrates how grid parity had been reached in In some specific segments, determining the competitiveness of
most IEA PVPS countries through late 2022 and 2023, and how a PV system is not just dependent on the system or electricity
rising electricity costs and dropping PV costs are paving the way costs, but also on other avoided costs, as for BIPV, for example.
for more countries becoming competitive for PV. In this figure, the The specific case of BIPV consists, for new or renovated roofs,
lower range of electricity prices is, with the exception of France, to assess the competitiveness for the BIPV solution minus the
Türkiye for commercial and industrial consumer, whilst the higher is costs of the traditional roofing (or façade) elements. The rest of the

84
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

assessment is similar to any building under self-consumption using FUEL-PARITY AND OFF-GRID SYSTEMS
a standard BAPV solution. Of course, if the BIPV solution has to be Off-grid systems including hybrid PV/diesel can be considered
installed on a building outside of any planned works, this doesn’t competitive when PV can provide electricity at a cheaper cost than
apply. Metrics used for buildings can also be different, since the the conventional generator. For some off-grid applications, the cost
integration of PV components might be justified by non-economic of the battery bank and the charge controller should be considered
factors or the perspective of an added value. For such reasons, in the upfront and maintenance costs while a hybrid system will
BIPV competitiveness is in general assessed against the traditional consider the cost of fuel saved by the PV system.
building costs.
The point at which PV competitiveness will be reached for
COMPETITIVENESS OF PV ELECTRICITY WITH WHOLESALE these hybrid systems takes into account fuel savings due to the
ELECTRICITY PRICES reduction of operating hours of the generator. Fuel-parity refers to
In countries with an electricity market, wholesale electricity prices the moment in time when the installation of a PV system can be
when PV produces are one benchmark of PV competitiveness. financed with fuel savings only. It is assumed that PV has reached
These prices depend on the market organisation and the technology fuel-parity, based on fuel prices, in numerous Sunbelt countries.
mix used to generate electricity. In order to be competitive with
these prices, PV electricity has to be generated at the lowest Other off-grid systems are often not replacing existing generation
possible price. This is already achieved with large utility-scale PV sources but providing electricity in places with no network and no
installations that allow reaching the lowest system prices today or little use of diesel generators. They represent a completely new
especially when they come with low maintenance costs and a way to provide electricity to hundreds of millions of people all over
low cost of capital – although interest rates rose around the world the world.
in 2023, increasing the cost of capital. An increasing number of PRODUCING COMPETITIVE GREEN HYDROGEN AND OTHER
countries have had utility scale systems commissioned that sell MOLECULES WITH PV
directly on the market – including Croatia, Italy, Germany, Norway, The declining cost of PV electricity opens the door for other
Sweden, Portugal, Romania, Philippines, Spain, Australia and applications such as green hydrogen and/or ammonia directly from
the USA; indeed, in these last three countries it is increasingly PV (possibly in combination with wind). The cost of electrolysers
becoming a common option. is also decreasing as commissioned volumes of electrolysers
increases; however, despite the increased gas prices after the war
Energy-only markets are also likely to be soon completemented
in Ukraine, competitiveness with “black” hydrogen is still only on
by grid services that could add additional revenues.
the horizon and is not yet a reality. Different uses for hydrogen
These types of business models, exposed to the market, remain - industrial applications, transport, agriculture (through ammonia) -
riskier than conventional ones that guarantee prices paid to the are expected to create a tremendous opportunity for PV to produce
producer over 15 years or more. The key risk associated with such hydrogen without being connected to the grid.
business models lies in the evolution of wholesale market prices
Large projects have been announced around the world with
on the long term and the potential effects of what is known as
several commissioned already including two systems in China
price cannibalisation: large volumes of PV generated electricity
with 150 MW / 300 MW of PV and a smaller project in Japan. The
reduce market prices during the midday peak when penetration
business model is being explored in a wide range of countries, with
becomes significant. However, with high penetration rates and the
increasingly large multi-GW scale projects in preliminary phases
shift to electricity for transport and heating, it is unclear if price
across Australia, the USA, Brazil and Africa (Mauritania) and the
cannibalisation will be a real issue or not - either prices during PV
Middle East (Oman, Egypt) - countries where high irradiance and
production peaks will drop and impair the ability to remunerate
low land costs are expected to allow for competitive conditions.
investments, or low prices will attract additional electricity demand
and will stabilise the market prices. At this point, both options
remain possible. When a wholesale market doesn’t exist as such,
(in China for instance), the comparison point is the production cost
of electricity from coal-fired power plants.

85
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

COST OF PV ELECTRICITY / CONTINUED

...........................................................................................................

LOW TENDERS PRICES

FIGURE 6.8A: NORMALISED LCOE FOR SOLAR PV BASED ON LOWEST PPA PRICES 2016 - Q4 2023
100
Mexico
90 India

80
Greece
70
UAE India India
60 Brazil
[USD/MWh]

South Africa
50

40
UAE
Portugal Portugal
30 Qatar Portugal Chile
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
20

10

0
H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2
2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 2023 2023

Original tender With Yield = 1000 kWh/kWp With Yield = 2000 kWh/kWp

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

86
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

FIGURE 6.8B: NORMALISED LCOE FOR SOLAR PV BASED ON RECENT PPA PRICES 2023
140

Serbia
120

100

80 Italy Italy
Italy Greece
Ecuador Japan Poland
[USD/MWh]

Germany
60 India UK
Uzbekistan Germany
India
40 United Arab Emirates

20

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023

Original tender With Yield = 1000 kWh/kWp With Yield = 2000 kWh/kWp

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

With many countries having adopted tenders as a way to allocate Solar PPA prices seen in 2023 ranged from about 20 USD/MWh to
PPAs to PV projects, the value of these PPAs achieved record 100 USD/MWh – a slightly wider range than in 2022, with a clear
low levels in 2020 and some low prices in 2021 as well. In 2022 difference in regional evolution; they increased quarter on quarter
and 2023, because of the higher electricity market prices (Europe, through 2022 in Europe and the USA, and either stabilised or slightly
USA, Australia) PPA’s were negotiated at higher prices too. The decreased in 2023 (in Europe) whereas they continued to increase
high level of certainty when it comes to solar generation levels and through 2023 in the USA. Whilst in the past most solar PPA’s were
operating costs has become attractive on markets where many for new and to be developed systems, in the coming years they will
industrial and commercial consumers were significantly impacted be for existing capacity reaching the end of current contracts under
by the volatile electricity market prices of late 2022 and early support mechanisms or initial PPA’s.
2023. It is increasingly worth paying a slight premium for the price
stability. In parallel, solar is an increasingly attractive option for
companies investing in renewable energy for renewable energy
targets and corporate social responsibility goals such as the RE100
initiative.

87
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

COST OF PV ELECTRICITY / CONTINUED

...........................................................................................................

TABLE 6.1: TOP 10 LOWEST WINNING BIDS IN PV TENDERS

FOR UTILTY SCALE PV SYSTEM

REGION CONTRY/STATE USD/MWH YEAR

MIDDLE EAST SAUDI ARABIA 10.40 2021
EUROPE PORTUGAL 13.20 2020
LATIN AMERICA CHILE 13.32 2021
MIDDLE EAST UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 13.53 2020
MIDDLE EAST QATAR 14.49 2020
MIDDLE EAST SAUDI ARABIA 14.80 2021
EUROPE SPAIN 14.98 2021
EUROPE PORTUGAL 16.02 2019
MIDDLE EAST UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 16.20 2023
LATIN AMERICA BRAZIL 17.50 2019

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

TABLE 6.2: LOWEST WINNING BIDS IN PV TENDERS FOR

UTILTY SCALE PV SYSTEM PER REGION

REGION CONTRY/STATE USD/MWH YEAR

ASIA UZBEKISTAN 17.9 2021
AFRICA TUNISIA 24.4 2019
EUROPE PORTUGAL 13.2 2020
LATIN AMERICA CHILE 13.3 2021
MIDDLE EAST SAUDI ARABIA 10.4 2021
NORTH AMERICA MEXICO 20.6 2017

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

88
 seven
PV IN THE ENERGY SECTOR

PV ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION Repowering is still relatively unusual given the age of the oldest
............................................................................................................. installations, but it is expected to increase in the near future - serial
defects with backsheets manufactured in the period 2009 – 2011
is a good example, as the past 3 years have seen several hundred
TRACKING OF PV INSTALLED CAPACITY MW replaced. Module capacity that has been used to repower
systems with defective or underperforming modules will appear
Tracking PV installations in all the regions of the world can be
in shipped volumes but not necessarily in new annual installations.
challenging as many countries do not accurately keep track of the
Real decommissioning is expected to be rare, as land usage
PV systems installed or do not make the data publicly available.
constraints and cheaper PV on buildings encourages repowering.
Data published by IEA PVPS reports on new annual installed
Recycling numbers can provide a glimpse of what is happening
capacity and total cumulative installed capacity and is based on
with regards to repowering and decommissioning in countries
official data in reporting countries. For the purposes of this report,
where recycling schemes are active, however recycling volumes
when individual countries do not publish any reporting data,
are underestimating decommissioning due to an active (and
estimated volumes have been made based on trade data (import
sometimes barely legal) second-hand market, especially towards
volumes), and adjusted to take into account the delays between
Africa; also, reporting is often in tonnage and the availability of data
importing volumes and installation and commissioning.
must be improved before it can be used more generally.
Depending on reporting practices, cumulative capacity (the sum of
IEA PVPS is following the dynamic evolution of decommissioning,
new annual capacity) may outstrip operating capacity as systems
repowering and recycling closely, however giving numbered
are decommissioned. Repowered capacities not only replace some
estimates is not possible yet, so the expected impact on the installed
decommissioned capacity but also generally increase operational
capacity, market projections for repowering and the decline in PV
capacity, as the repowered capacity is higher than the initial plant
performances due to ageing PV systems is not quantified.
capacity due to PV module efficiency improvements.
ESTIMATING PV PRODUCTION
There is no standardised reporting on these subjects across Estimating PV electricity production is easy to measure at a power
IEA PVPS countries. Several countries already incorporate plant but much more complicated to compile for an entire country.
decommissioning of PV plants in their total capacity numbers Not only the installed capacity must be accurately tracked, which
by reducing the total cumulative number. Other countries report requires an effective and consistent approach (especially for
capacity in operation for that year, and do not include repowered distributed, self-consumption and off-grid segments), but also,
volumes in new annual capacity or decommissioned volumes in electricity production is impossible to accurately estimate from
operational capacity. Many countries do not track decommissioning installed PV capacity for a given year, because estimations are
or repowering with any consistency. based on the installed capacity without knowledge of when, during
the year, that capacity was installed. A system installed at the end

89
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

PV ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION / CONTINUED

...........................................................................................................

of the year will have produced only a small fraction of its theoretical PV PENETRATION
annual electricity output. PV electricity penetration can be three different indicators – either
Additionally, estimates are based on a theoretical annual the installed capacity per capita, as seen in Chapter 2; or, as used
production, and do not take into account different performance here, the share of electricity cconsumption (or demand) or electricity
levels based on azimuth and inclination or even other factors such production supplied by PV generation. Here it is the ratio between
as system ventilation or shading., A system installed west facing will PV electricity production in a country and the electricity demand in
generate less over the year than one installed facing the equator. that country and is expressed as a percentage. It is based on the
Performance losses due to aging of PV plants are not considered at theoretical electricity production from PV per country, calculated
this point. Some plants may have experienced production issues, as indicated in the section above. Electricity demand is obtained
due to technical problems or external constraints. via publicly available databases and via the IEA PVPS experts;
when possible, it has been adjusted to consider self-consumption
For these reasons, the electricity production from PV per country in volumes.
this report is an estimate of what the minimal theoretical production
should be the following year, when all the PV systems installed at The PV penetration rates here are an estimate and are likely to
the end of the year have generated electricity for one year. differ from official PV production and penetration numbers in
many countries for the reasons detailed above - they should
To calculate this “next year’s minimal theoretical PV production”, be considered as indicative, providing a reliable estimation for
an average solar yield in the country is used. Depending on the comparison between countries and do not replace official data.
country, this value is either provided through National Survey
Reports and is calculated as the total solar generation divided The PV penetration rate calculated based on electricity consumption
by total solar capacity, or is a representative value taken from will tend to be several points higher than when calculated based on
geographical irradiance atlases – these yields are an approximation electricity production, as losses from transport and transformation
of the reality. of centralised (fossil fuel) electricity generation have not yet been
factored in.
Nationally produced statistics on solar generation will in general
reflect real production injected into the grid – consequently, in years To illustrate this divergence, the national TSO reported on
with high new capacity additions, the theoretical value used here production data in France, and gave the PV penetration at 5% for
can be well above official statistics for the current year – and well 2023, just above last year’s IEA PVPS estimation of 4.9% but under
below that of the next year. The real PV production in a country estimations for this report at 5.8%. In Spain the TSO reported it as
is increasingly difficult to assess even if tracked by transmission 14% for 2023, well below our estimated 19.7% last year and 22.3%
system operators (TSO’s), as more and more volumes of this year. The difference from Spain is due to the fact that the TSO
generation are self-consumed (i.e. not metered) and storage enters does not take into consideration the large volume of distributed PV
into consideration, increasing self-consumption levels or curtailing in Spain – consequently, the divergence is expected.
generation to fit storage. IEA PVPS advocates for governments and Of the 41 IEA PVPS and non-IEA PVPS countries studied, all but
energy stakeholders, including grid operators to create accurate one (Norway) produced at least 1% of their electricity demand from
databases and precisely measure PV production. PV in 2023 – and 10 should be producing more than 10% next year.

Concerning global PV penetration, with around 1 642.0 GW

installed worldwide, PV could produce almost 2 136 TWh (see
Table 7.1) of electricity on a yearly basis if an average yield of
1300kWh/kWp is considered. This represents around 8.3% of the
global electricity demand covered by PV, up 2.1% on 2022 – with a
wide range of differing contributions from one country to another,
as demonstrated in Figure 7.1.

90
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

FIGURE 7.1: PV CONTRIBUTION TO ELECTRICITY DEMAND 2023

25

20

15

10

0
Ne Gre n

ds
Au hile

il
Au ly

nm l

Po na
Vi d

Ro cco

Tü ica
Th kiye

d
er e

rm a

Re A

Ko c

Sw kia
M den

ia
M y
nd a

Isr s
Ja l
Be pan
itz ium

dia

Bu tria
Po ria

Ch k

Sl am
M enia

h ia

Fr ea
M ce
ico
se UK
Sl ipei
ae

De uga
a

az

uh bli
ar
th ec

Ge rali

Ho alt
an
ai

lan

lan

an
h US

ys
ut an
Ita
ur
lan

an
r
i
lga

a
ex
Sp

In

n
s
Br

Ta
So pu
o
C

Sw lg

ail
Af

e
ov

ala
r
ov

So m
er

rt
st

et

or

ine
ec

Ch
Cz

PVPS Country non PVPS Country

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

FIGURE 7.2: SHARE OF RENEWABLE IN THE GLOBAL FIGURE 7.3: NEW RENEWABLE INSTALLED CAPACITY IN
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN 2023 2023
HYDROPOWER (EXCL PUMPED), 2%
WIND, 7.8%

OTHER RES, 1%
PV, 5.4%
WIND ONSHORE, 18%

HYDROPOWER, 14.2%
WIND OFFSHORE, 2%

OTHER RS, 2.8%

FOSSIL & NUCLEAR, 69.7% PV, 77%

. .
SOURCE REN21, IEA PVPS SOURCE REN21, “GWEC, IHA, IEA PVPS

91
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

PV ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION / CONTINUED

...........................................................................................................

TABLE 7.1: 2023 PV ELECTRICITY STATISTICS IN IEA PVPS COUNTRIES

PV
FINAL PV ANNUAL CUMULATIVE
ELECTRICITY INSTALLED INSTALLED PV ANNUAL CUMULATIVE CUMULATIVE THEORETICAL
ONSUMPTION HABITANTS GDP AVERAGE CAPACITY CAPACITY ELECTRICITY CAPACITY PER CAPACITY CAPACITY PV
COUNTRY 2023 2023 2023 SURFACE YIELD 2023 2023 PRODUCTION CAPITA PER CAPITA PER KM2 PENETRATION

TWH MILLION BUSD KM2 KWH/KWP MW MW TWH W/CAP W/CAP KW/KM2 %

AUSTRALIA 273 27 1 724 7 690 000 1 400 4 153 34 522 48 156 1 296 4 17.7%

AUSTRIA 61 9 516 83 883 1 050 2 603 6 395 7 285 700 76 11.0%

BELGIUM 79 12 632 30 688 925 1 806 9 955 9 153 842 324 11.7%

CANADA 598 40 2 140 9 985 000 1 150 823 7 340 8 21 183 1 1.4%

CHINA 9 150 1 411 17 795 9 634 000 1 350 277 176 691 241 933 196 490 72 10.2%

DENMARK 36 6 404 44 000 975 487 3 910 4 82 658 89 10.6%

FINLAND 80 6 300 338 432 850 318 1 008 1 57 181 3 1.1%

FRANCE 446 68 3 031 551 500 1 100 3 961 23 664 26 58 347 43 5.8%

GERMANY 408 84 4 456 357 588 808 15 005 82 305 67 178 974 230 16.3%

ISRAEL 71 10 510 20 770 1 797 1 150 5 657 10 118 580 272 14.2%

ITALY 306 59 2 255 302 070 1 122 5 255 30 319 34 89 516 100 11.1%

JAPAN 851 125 4 213 377 975 1 100 6 300 91 366 101 51 734 242 11.8%

SOUTH KOREA 594 52 1 713 100 401 1 261 3 306 27 619 35 64 534 275 5.9%

MALAYSIA 171 34 400 330 621 1 314 2 956 3 390 4 21 99 10 2.6%

MOROCCO 35 38 141 710 850 1 750 728 1 714 3 19 45 2 8.5%

NETHERLANDS 108 18 1 118 41 500 994 4 788 23 037 23 268 1 288 555 21.3%

NORWAY 126 6 486 323 806 760 303 657 0 55 119 2 0.4%

PORTUGAL 51 11 287 92 225 1 407 1 285 3 822 5 122 363 41 10.6%

SPAIN 254 48 1 581 505 990 1 500 8 987 38 986 58 186 806 77 23.0%

SWEDEN 135 11 593 410 000 950 1 688 4 215 4 160 400 10 3.0%

SWITZERLAND 54 9 885 41 285 970 1 641 6 375 W 185 720 154 11.5%

SOUTH AFRICA 195 60 378 1 219 090 1 733 2 965 7 504 13 49 124 6 6.7%

THAILAND 214 72 515 1 219 092 1 522 4 587 9 002 14 64 125 7 6.4%

TÜRKIYE 327 85 1 108 783 560 1 471 1 867 14 393 21 22 169 18 6.5%

USA 4 252 335 27 361 9 147 282 1 500 33 884 177 344 266 101 530 19 6.3%

IEA PVPS 18 874 2 634 74 541 44 341 608 1 300 385 766 1 305 739 1 701 146 496 29 9.0%

BRAZIL 508 216 2 174 30 530 1 506 12 446 37 817 57 58 175 1 239 11.2%

INDIA 1 320 1 429 3 550 357 172 1 625 13 020 92 645 151 9 65 259 11.4%

NON IEA PVPS 6 884 5 391 30 894 89 983 827 1 300 70 244 336 218 433 13 62 4 6.3%

WORLD 25 758 8 025 105 435 134 325 435 1 300 456 010 1 641 956 2 135 57 205 12 8.3%

.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS

92
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

Renewable energies contributed more than 30% to global electricity Independently of PV systems, an increasing number of utility scale
production in 2023, up 0.4% on 2022. Whilst a significant part of batteries are being installed around the world and their system
new capacity was solar, (around 75%), with a lower capacity factor size is increasing each year. The largest markets for utility scale
than wind or hydro power and a year with excellent wind in several batteries were China, USA, Europe (UK, Italy), Australia but also
large wind markets, its actual share in annual electricity generation Japan and South Korea. In most of the markets, battery project
decerased slightly to approximatly 5.5%. developers are also developers of solar projects or energy majors.
These grid-scale batteries provide services that would otherwise
PV INTEGRATION AND SECTOR have been provided by turbine-based generation (coal, gas or
hydro power), enabling higher PV penetration rates and a faster
COUPLING energy transition.
.............................................................................................................
Globally, the largest part of batteries sold are used for transportation
in EVs and stationary storage remains the exception with smaller
THE ENERGY STORAGE MARKET
volumes. However, the rapid development of electric mobility
Energy storage can take different forms – when coupled with PV, is driving battery prices down much faster than any could have
the most common are batteries in standalone systems, generally expected in the stationary market alone, and is making storage
found in residential systems far from the grid, however distributed increasingly an economically viable tool for increasing PV
residential batteries are increasingly used to improve self- penetration rates.
consumption rates, whilst batteries are used to keep microgrids THE ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT
stable, providing both services and energy, and grid-scale batteries The electrification of transport continues to advance around the
are slowly being deployed to provide system services. world in parallel to the growth of solar. Charging EVs during peak
In general, distributed battery storage is seen as an opportunity load implies rethinking power generation, grid management and
to solve grid integration issues linked to PV and to increase the smart metering, and concepts such as virtual self-consumption
self-consumption ratio of distributed PV plants to improve the could provide a framework for EVs as mobile storage for excess PV
payback time of PV systems. Despite their decreasing costs, generation. In parallel, the use of transport infrastructure to support
such solutions are not yet economically viable in all countries PV is opening up possibilities for future direct injection to transport
and market segments – with some stand out countries such as networks (rail, tram) or for supplying vehicle charging stations (car
Australia, China, Germany, Italy, and certain states in the USA. ports and parking canopies, noise barriers).
Around the world, the adoption of batteries is on the rise both THE ELECTRIFICATION OF HEATING AND COOLING
in the residential segments and in the commercial segments as With the development of self-consumption, grid congestion and the
more and more consumers are willing to maximise their self- need for peak shaving to relieve grid instability, the use of PV led
consumption and to optimize their consumption profile. In some heating and cooling is becoming increasingly common.
countries, this is encouraged to relieve grid congestion or peak
loads, either through subsidies (Australia, Austria, China, Spain, Heating with PV is mainly used to heat domestic hot water, as
Japan, United States) or the terms attached to self-consumption a way of increasing self-consumption, whether it be in response
policies such as time-of-use net billing and/or regulations on new
building construction (both notably in use in California in the USA). From PV to VIPV and VAPV

More large-scale PV plants are being built in combination with grid- With its distributed nature, PV fits perfectly with EV
scale batteries, which can be used to stabilize grid injection, reduce charging during the day when cars are stationed in
curtailment, and, in some cases, to provide ancillary services to the commercial and office parking or at home. Such slow
grid such as fast response voltage stability or peak power surges. charging is also highly compatible with distribution
New requirements for grid integration in tenders tend to favour grid constraints. Finally, the integration of PV in the
the use of stationary batteries in utility-scale plants to smooth the vehicles themselves (VIPV), also offers opportunities to
output of the plant, reduce curtailment or reduce the need for grid alleviate the burden on the grid, increase the autonomy
capacity reinforcement, however this trend would require some of EVs, provide greater driver comfort and connects the
more years to be confirmed. automotive and PV sectors. The IEA PVPS Task 17 deals
with this fast-emerging subject.

93
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

PV INTEGRATION AND SECTOR COUPLING / CONTINUED

..............................................................................................................................................

to electricity consumption costs or grid capacity and congestion industrialization projects around the creation of green hydrogen
problems. Domestic hot water manufacturers now integrate (or other molecules) continue to be funded each year. Hydrogen,
devices to directly link extra PV production to the electric boiler. or its derivatives, produced by competitive PV can also be stored
Specific recommendations exist for connection and metering of and used to produce electricity later, even if the overall efficiency
storage systems in Switzerland for instance. decreases significantly. It is seen as a way of increasing PV capacity
to supply electricity grids when there is a need, but also to store
In hot climates such as Australia, China, Japan, as well as the
excess production when grid needs are lower, even if technological
states of Florida and California (USA), PV has already been used
challenges remain. A number of very large PV projects are in the
to provide electricity for cooling for several years. However, as
planning stages to power hydrogen electrolysers, particularly
climate change intensifies and electricity costs go up whilst grid
in the Middle East, China and Australia (see chapter 3 for policy
infrastructure becomes more fragile to heatwaves, the use of PV at
developments and chapter 6).
the point of consumption to reduce grid loads whilst cooling needs
are high is becoming more and more necessary. The electrification
of heating and cooling through the increasing use of heat pumps
will also increase demand for PV at the point of consumption.

For larger coupling, no real commercial products seem available.

Nevertheless, designs of solar PV systems based on self-
consumption are linked to some specific uses, for example of
adapted water chillers including cold water storage. Commercial
companies that intensively use cooling (especially in the food chain),
and supermarkets are increasingly turning to PV installations on
their buildings to reduce the electricity load of refrigerating units.

The use of solar energy (PV or thermal) for cooling is the subject of
the IEA SHC Task 65 (https://task65.iea-shc.org/) that concluded in
June 2024, which focused on innovative ways to adapt and develop
existing technologies (solar and heat pumps) for sunny and hot
climates.

GREEN HYDROGEN AND HYDROGEN DERIVATIVES

Green hydrogen refers to hydrogen produced from renewable

sources, as opposed to hydrogen produced from fossil fuels or
nuclear power. Hydrogen (or its derivatives such as ammonia)
is increasingly seen as a partial answer to decarbonize some
sectors such as heavy industry, agriculture, the maritime
sector and long distance, heavy weight road transport. Early

94
 95
ANNEX 1: CUMULATIVE INSTALLED PV CAPACITY (MWP) FROM 1992 TO 2023
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
AUSTRALIA 7 9 11 13 16 19 23 25 29 34 39 46 52 61 70 82 105 187 571 1 376 2 416 3 226 4 092 5 109 5 985 7 132 11 586 16 399 21 091 26 129 30 368 34 522
AUSTRIA 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 10 17 21 24 26 28 32 53 95 187 363 626 785 937 1 096 1 269 1 455 1 702 2 043 2 783 3 792 6 395
BELGIUM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 24 112 671 1 108 2 176 2 870 3 139 3 245 3 355 3 535 3 865 4 310 5 127 6 273 7 123 8 149 9 955
CANADA 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 17 20 26 33 95 281 559 766 1 211 1 843 2 519 2 665 2 913 3 130 3 388 3 713 5 752 6 517 7 340
CHINA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 16 34 44 54 62 72 92 132 292 792 3 492 6 692 17 682 28 322 43 472 78 022 130 882 175 142 205 440 253 640 308 520 414 065 649 034
DENMARK 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 7 29 499 698 751 979 1 061 1 139 1 254 1 362 1 626 1 850 3 423 3 910
FINLAND 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 5 7 9 9 9 9 20 37 80 134 214 313 417 691 1 008
FRANCE 2 2 2 3 4 6 8 9 11 14 17 21 24 26 38 76 218 440 1 446 3 562 4 906 5 692 6 837 7 920 8 636 9 713 10 755 11 930 13 098 16 737 19 703 23 664
GERMANY 6 9 12 18 28 42 54 70 114 176 296 435 1 105 2 056 2 899 4 170 6 120 10 566 18 006 25 916 34 077 36 710 37 900 39 224 40 679 42 293 45 181 49 016 53 901 60 107 67 300 82 305
ISRAEL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 22 67 186 272 377 588 771 877 952 1 358 1 960 2 414 3 349 4 507 5 657
ITALY 8 12 14 16 16 17 18 18 19 20 22 26 31 37 50 100 496 1 277 3 605 13 141 16 796 18 198 18 607 18 915 19 297 19 682 20 108 20 865 21 650 22 594 25 064 30 319
JAPAN 19 24 31 43 60 91 133 209 330 453 637 860 1 132 1 422 1 708 1 919 2 144 2 627 3 618 4 914 6 632 13 599 23 339 34 151 42 040 49 500 56 162 63 192 71 868 78 413 85 066 91 366
MALAYSIA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 4 34 145 213 273 352 401 793 1 292 1 800 2 308 2 680 3 390
MOROCCO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 205 206 206 699 986 1 714
NETHERLANDS 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 5 9 16 22 40 43 45 49 59 69 111 170 390 767 1 069 1 536 2 061 2 914 4 609 7 225 10 717 14 349 18 249 23 037
NORWAY 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 12 14 26 44 68 120 160 201 354 657
PORTUGAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 3 18 68 108 134 175 244 299 418 454 519 585 673 907 1 077 1 647 2 537 3 822
SOUTH AFRICA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 311 1 393 1 487 2 077 2 146 2 206 2 669 3 969 4 427 4 539 7 504
SOUTH KOREA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 9 14 36 81 357 524 650 729 1 024 1 555 2 481 3 615 4 502 5 835 8 099 12 665 17 323 21 199 24 313 27 619
SPAIN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 14 25 52 150 742 4 021 4 070 4 595 5 080 5 439 5 566 5 641 5 706 5 778 5 928 6 306 11 628 15 875 21 513 29 999 38 986
SWEDEN 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 8 9 11 15 23 42 77 125 184 269 429 707 1 107 1 606 2 527 4 215
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

SWITZERLAND 5 6 7 8 10 11 13 14 16 18 20 22 24 28 30 37 49 80 125 223 437 756 1 061 1 394 1 664 1 906 2 173 2 498 2 973 3 651 4 734 6 375
THAILAND 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 32 32 32 42 185 379 524 961 1 436 1 557 2 584 3 194 3 650 3 666 3 715 4 215 4 415 9 002
TÜRKIYE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 32 64 358 1 175 4 206 7 339 8 551 9 424 10 917 12 526 14 393
USA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 111 190 295 455 753 1 188 2 017 3 937 7 130 12 076 18 321 25 821 40 973 51 818 62 498 76 274 95 550 120 368 143 469 177 344
REST OF EU COUNTRIES 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 11 21 23 34 42 107 674 2 659 3 759 5 962 8 404 8 815 9 167 9 571 9 943 10 735 12 369 16 617 22 856 32 200 45 852
TOTAL IEA PVPS 50 65 90 115 150 206 271 372 572 784 1 143 1 566 2 698 4 116 5 552 8 013 14 884 23 036 40 132 70 067 97 580 132 214 167 718 209 701 276 832 360 931 445 838 529 068 642 200 778 094 968 976 1 329 105
BRAZIL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 38 53 66 86 93 1 160 2 416 4 697 8 474 14 504 25 371 37 817
............................... INDIA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 272 1 299 2 384 3 249 5 436 9 547 22 561 33 363 43 431 47 826 61 490 79 625 92 645
ANNEXES TOTAL NON IEA PVPS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 14 24 34 46 67 94 139 249 576 2 304 4 781 8 049 12 800 21 588 31 076 50 086 69 006 99 291 131 515 169 087 216 970 312 852
TOTAL 50 65 90 115 150 206 271 372 573 791 1 157 1 591 2 732 4 162 5 619 8 107 15 023 23 285 40 708 72 371 102 361 140 263 180 518 231 288 307 908 411 016 514 844 628 359 773 715 947 180 1 185 946 1 641 956
.
SOURCE IEA PVPS & OTHERS
 ANNEX 2: ANNUAL INSTALLED PV CAPACITY (MW) FROM 1992 TO 2023
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
7 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 4 4 6 6 7 8 10 12 22 83 383 806 1 039 811 866 1 018 876 1 147 4 454 4 813 4 692 5 038 4 239 4 153
AUSTRALIA
1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 4 6 4 3 2 2 5 20 43 92 176 263 159 152 159 173 186 247 341 739 1 009 2 603
AUSTRIA
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 18 88 559 437 1 068 694 269 106 110 180 330 445 817 1 146 850 917 1 806
BELGIUM
1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 4 5 7 62 187 277 208 445 633 675 146 249 217 258 325 2 038 765 823
CANADA
CHINA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 5 19 10 10 8 10 20 40 160 500 2 700 3 200 10 990 10 640 15 150 34 550 52 860 44 260 30 300 48 200 54 880 105 545 234 969
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 22 470 199 53 228 81 78 115 109 264 718 1 754 487
DENMARK
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 11 17 43 53 81 98 104 269 318
FINLAND
2 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 2 12 38 143 222 1 006 2 116 1 344 786 1 145 1 083 716 1 077 1 042 1 175 1 168 3 639 2 966 3 961
FRANCE
6 3 3 6 10 14 12 16 44 62 120 139 670 951 843 1 271 1 950 4 446 7 440 7 910 8 161 2 633 1 190 1 324 1 455 1 614 2 888 3 835 4 885 6 206 7 193 15 005
GERMANY
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 21 45 119 86 105 211 183 106 75 406 602 454 935 1 158 1 150
ISRAEL
8 4 2 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 5 7 13 50 396 781 2 328 9 536 3 655 1 402 409 308 382 385 426 758 785 944 2 470 5 255
ITALY
19 5 7 12 16 32 42 75 122 123 184 223 272 290 287 210 225 483 991 1 296 1 718 6 968 9 740 10 811 7 889 7 460 6 662 7 030 8 676 6 545 6 653 6 300
JAPAN
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 34 111 67 61 78 49 517 499 508 372 1 068 710
MALAYSIA
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 205 1 0 493 287 728
MOROCCO
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 8 6 18 4 2 3 10 10 42 59 220 377 302 467 525 853 1 695 2 616 3 492 3 632 4 200 4 788
NETHERLANDS
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 11 18 25 51 40 41 153 303
NORWAY
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 14 50 40 26 41 69 55 119 36 65 66 88 234 170 571 959 1 285
PORTUGAL
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 305 1 081 94 590 69 60 463 1 300 458 112 2 965
SOUTH AFRICA
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 3 5 22 45 276 167 127 79 295 531 926 1 134 887 1 333 2 265 4 566 4 658 3 876 3 278 3 306
SOUTH KOREA
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 8 11 27 98 592 3 279 49 525 485 359 127 75 65 72 150 378 5 322 4 247 5 639 8 495 8 987
SPAIN
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 2 4 8 19 35 48 59 85 160 291 400 499 921 1 688
SWEDEN
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

5 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 7 12 30 46 98 214 319 305 333 270 242 267 325 475 677 1 084 1 641
SWITZERLAND
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 7 0 0 10 6 194 145 437 475 122 1 027 610 456 16 49 500 200 4 587
THAILAND
874 1 492 1 610 1 867
....................................................

TÜRKIYE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 26 32 294 818 3 031 3 133 1 212

ANNEXES / CONTINUED

USA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 111 79 105 160 298 435 829 1 920 3 193 4 946 6 245 7 500 15 152 10 845 10 680 13 776 19 276 24 819 23 101 33 875
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 2 11 7 65 568 1 984 1 100 2 204 2 441 412 352 405 372 792 1 634 4 248 6 239 8 935 13 652
REST OF EU COUNTRIES
TOTAL IEA PVPS 50 16 25 25 35 56 65 101 199 212 360 423 1 131 1 419 1 436 2 460 6 871 8 153 16 958 29 935 27 517 34 634 35 503 41 983 67 131 84 099 85 032 83 245 113 133 136 252 191 779 360 128
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 12 15 14 20 7 1 067 1 256 2 281 3 777 6 030 10 867 12 446
BRAZIL
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 214 1 027 1 085 865 2 186 4 111 13 013 10 803 10 068 4 395 13 664 18 135 13 020
INDIA
TOTAL NON IEA PVPS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 6 10 10 12 21 27 45 109 326 1 728 2 475 3 268 4 751 8 788 9 478 19 009 24 160 30 286 32 225 37 572 49 897 95 882
TOTAL 50 16 25 25 35 56 65 101 200 219 366 433 1 141 1 430 1 457 2 487 6 916 8 262 17 285 31 663 29 991 37 902 40 254 50 770 76 608 103 108 109 192 113 531 145 358 173 824 241 676 456 010

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IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

ANNEXES / CONTINUED
..............................................................................................................

ANNEX 3: CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES

EXCHANGE RATE
COUNTRY CURRENCY CODE IN 2023(1 USD =)
AUSTRALIA AUD 1.506
BRAZIL BRL 4.994
CANADA CAD 1.35
CHILE CLP 952.43
CHINA CNY 7.075
DENMARK DKK 6.89
EUROZONE EUR 0.924
INDIA INR 82.572
ISRAEL ILS 3.687
JAPAN JPY 140.511
SOUTH KOREA KRW 1338.93
MALAYSIA MYR 4.61
MEXICO MXN 17.733
MOROCCO MAD 10.275
NORWAY NOK 10.564
SOUTH AFRICA ZAR 18.457
SWEDEN SEK 10.613
SWITZERLAND CHF 0.899
THAILAND THB 34.802
TÜRKIYE TRY 23.824
USA USD 1

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IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

ANNEXES / CONTINUED
..............................................................................................................

ANNEX 4: COUNTRY AND MARKET GROUPINGS

COUNTRY/MARKET SUB REGION REGION COUNTRY/MARKET SUB REGION REGION

ALGERIA AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA ITALY EUROPE EUROPE

ARGENTINA LATIN AMERICA THE AMERICAS JAPAN ASIA ASIA PACIFIC

AUSTRALIA OCEANIA ASIA PACIFIC JORDAN MIDDLE EAST MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

AUSTRIA EUROPE EUROPE KAZAKHSTAN ASIA ASIA PACIFIC

BELGIUM EUROPE EUROPE SOUTH KOREA ASIA ASIA PACIFIC

BRAZIL LATIN AMERICA THE AMERICAS LATVIA EUROPE EUROPE

BULGARIA EUROPE EUROPE LITHUANIA EUROPE EUROPE

CANADA NORTH AMERICA THE AMERICAS LUXEMBOURG EUROPE EUROPE

CHILE LATIN AMERICA THE AMERICAS MALAYSIA ASIA ASIA PACIFIC

CHINA ASIA ASIA PACIFIC MALTA EUROPE EUROPE

CHINESE TAIPEI ASIA ASIA PACIFIC MEXICO NORTH AMERICA THE AMERICAS

COLOMBIA LATIN AMERICA THE AMERICAS MOROCCO AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

CROATIA EUROPE EUROPE NETHERLANDS EUROPE EUROPE

CYPRUS EUROPE EUROPE NORWAY EUROPE EUROPE

CZECH REPUBLIC EUROPE EUROPE PAKISTAN ASIA ASIA PACIFIC

DENMARK EUROPE EUROPE CENTRAL AMERICA +

PANAMA THE AMERICAS
CARIBBEAN
ECUADOR LATIN AMERICA THE AMERICAS
PERU LATIN AMERICA THE AMERICAS
EGYPT AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
PHILIPPINES ASIA ASIA PACIFIC
ESTONIA EUROPE EUROPE
POLAND EUROPE EUROPE
FINLAND EUROPE EUROPE
PORTUGAL EUROPE EUROPE
FRANCE EUROPE EUROPE
ROMANIA EUROPE EUROPE
GERMANY EUROPE EUROPE
RUSSIA EURASIA EUROPE
GREECE EUROPE EUROPE
SAUDI ARABIA MIDDLE EAST MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
CENTRAL AMERICA +
HONDURAS THE AMERICAS SERBIA EUROPE EUROPE
CARIBBEAN
HUNGARY EUROPE EUROPE SINGAPORE ASIA ASIA PACIFIC

ICELAND EUROPE EUROPE SLOVAKIA EUROPE EUROPE

INDIA ASIA ASIA PACIFIC SLOVENIA EUROPE EUROPE

INDONESIA ASIA ASIA PACIFIC SOUTH AFRICA AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

IRELAND EUROPE EUROPE SPAIN EUROPE EUROPE

ISRAEL MIDDLE EAST MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA SWEDEN EUROPE EUROPE

98
 IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

ANNEXES / CONTINUED
..............................................................................................................

ANNEXE 4: COUNTRY AND MARKET GROUPINGS

COUNTRY/MARKET SUB REGION REGION

SWITZERLAND EUROPE EUROPE

THAILAND ASIA ASIA PACIFIC

TÜRKIYE EURASIA EUROPE

UK EUROPE EUROPE

UKRAINE EUROPE EUROPE

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES MIDDLE EAST MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

USA NORTH AMERICA THE AMERICAS

VIETNAM ASIA ASIA PACIFIC

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IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

LIST OF FIGURES
.................................................................
..FIGURE 1.1: ANNUAL INSTALLED VS ANNUAL SHIPPED VOLUMES AND EVOLUTION OF DATA ESTIMATIONS 10
FIGURE 2.1: EVOLUTION OF CUMULATIVE PV INSTALLATIONS 12
FIGURE 2.2: PV PENETRATION PER CAPITA IN 2023 13
FIGURE 2.3: EVOLUTION OF ANNUAL PV INSTALLATIONS IN MAJOR MARKETS 13
FIGURE 2.5: GLOBAL PV MARKET IN 2023 16
FIGURE 2.6: CUMULATIVE PV CAPACITY END 2023 16
FIGURE 2.7: EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL PV INSTALLATIONS 17
FIGURE 2.8: 2018-2023 GROWTH IN MAJOR MARKETS 17
FIGURE 2.9: ANNUAL SHARE OF CENTRALIZED AND DISTRIBUTED GRID-CONNECTED INSTALLATIONS 2013-2023 18
FIGURE 2.10: CENTRALIZED PV INSTALLED CAPACITY PER REGION 2023 19
FIGURE 2.11: DISTRIBUTED PV INSTALLED CAPACITY PER REGION 2023 21
FIGURE 2.12: ANNUAL GRID-CONNECTED CENTRALIZED AND DISTRIBUTED PV INSTALLATIONS BY REGION IN 2023 26
FIGURE 2.13: EVOLUTION OF PV INSTALLATIONS IN THE AMERICAS PER SEGMENT 27
FIGURE 2.14: EVOLUTION OF PV INSTALLATIONS IN ASIA PACIFIC PER SEGMENT 29
FIGURE 2.15: EVOLUTION OF PV INSTALLATIONS IN EUROPE PER SEGMENT 30
FIGURE 2.16: EVOLUTION OF PV INSTALLATIONS IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST PER SEGMENT 31
FIGURE 4.1: PV SYSTEM VALUE CHAIN 50
FIGURE 4.2: SHARE OF PV POLYSILICON* PRODUCTION IN 2023 BY COUNTRY 51
FIGURE 4.3: SHARE OF PV WAFER PRODUCTION - 2023 BY COUNTRY 52
FIGURE 4.4: SHARE OF PV CELL PRODUCTION - 2023 BY COUNTRY 53
FIGURE 4.5: SHARE OF PV MODULE PRODUCTION IN 2023 BY COUNTRY 54
FIGURE 4.6: PV MODULE PRODUCTION PER TECHNOLOGY IN IEA PVPS COUNTRIES 2013 - 2023 55
FIGURE 4.7: YEARLY PV INSTALLATION, PV PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTION CAPACITY 2013-2023 (GW) 58
FIGURE 5.1: CO2 EMISSIONS AVOIDED BY PV 67
FIGURE 5.2A: AVOIDED CO2 EMISSIONS AS PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY SECTOR TOTAL EMISSIONS 67
FIGURE 5.2B: AVOIDED CO2 EMISSIONS AS PERCENTAGE OF ENERGY SECTOR TOTAL EMISSIONS 67
FIGURE 5.3: BUSINESS VALUE OF THE PV MARKET IN 2023 COMPARED TO GDP IN% IN 2023 69
FIGURE 5.4: CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL GDP OF PV BUSINESS VALUE AND ENERGY SECTOR INVESTMENTS 69
FIGURE 5.5B: PV INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS VALUE ALONG THE VALUE CHAIN IN 2023 70
FIGURE 5.5A: ABSOLUTE PV INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS VALUE IN 2023 70
FIGURE 5.5C: PV INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS VALUE AS SHARE OF GDP IN 2023 70
FIGURE 5.6: GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT IN PV PER COUNTRY 72
FIGURE 6.1: PV MODULES SPOT PRICES LEARNING CURVE (1992-2023) 78
FIGURE 6.2: EVOLUTION OF PV MODULE PRICES RANGE IN USD/W 78
FIGURE 6.3: INDICATIVE MODULE PRICES IN SELECTED REPORTING COUNTRIES 79
FIGURE 6.4: 2023 PV MARKET COSTS RANGES 81
FIGURE 6.5: EVOLUTION OF RESIDENTIAL AND GROUND MOUNTED SYSTEMS PRICE RANGE 2013 - 2023 (USD/W) 82
FIGURE 6.6: INDICATIVE INSTALLED SYSTEM PRICES IN SELECTED IEA PVPS REPORTING COUNTRIES IN 2023 82
FIGURE 6.7: LCOE OF PV ELECTRICITY AS A FUNCTION OF SOLAR IRRADIANCE & RETAIL PRICES IN KEY MARKETS* 84
FIGURE 6.8A: NORMALISED LCOE FOR SOLAR PV BASED ON LOWEST PPA PRICES 2016 - Q4 2023 86
FIGURE 6.8B: NORMALISED LCOE FOR SOLAR PV BASED ON RECENT PPA PRICES 2023 87
FIGURE 7.1: PV CONTRIBUTION TO ELECTRICITY DEMAND 2023 91
FIGURE 7.2: SHARE OF RENEWABLE IN THE GLOBAL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN 2023 91
FIGURE 7.3: NEW RENEWABLE INSTALLED CAPACITY IN 2023 91

100
IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2024

LIST OF TABLES
...................................................................

TABLE 2.1: EVOLUTION OF TOP 10 MARKETS 15

TABLE 2.2:TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR CENTRALISED PV INSTALLED IN 2023 19
TABLE 2.3: TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR CENTRALISED PV CUMULATIVE CAPACITY IN 2023 19
TABLE 2.4: TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR DISTRIBUTED PV INSTALLED IN 2023 20
TABLE 2.5: TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR DISTRIBUTED PV TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY IN 2023 20
TABLE 2.6: 2023 PV MARKETS STATISTICS IN DETAIL 34
TABLE 4.1: PRODUCTION CAPACITY AND PRODUCTION AMOUNT OF TOP 5 WAFER PRODUCERS IN 20 52
TABLE 4.2: GLOBAL TOP FIVE MANUFACTURERS IN TERMS OF PV CELL/MODULE PRODUCTION AND SHIPMENT VOLUME (2023)) 53
TABLE 4.3: EVOLUTION OF ACTUAL MODULE PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTION CAPACITIES (MW) 59
TABLE 5.1: BUSINESS VALUE: TOP 10 COUNTRIES IN ABSOLUTE VALUE 69
TABLE 6.1: TOP 10 LOWEST WINNING BIDS IN PV TENDERS FOR UTILTY SCALE PV SYSTEM 88
TABLE 6.2: LOWEST WINNING BIDS IN PV TENDERS FOR UTILTY SCALE PV SYSTEM PER REGION 88
TABLE 7.1: 2023 PV ELECTRICITY STATISTICS IN IEA PVPS COUNTRIES  92
ANNEXE 1: CUMULATIVE INSTALLED PV CAPACITY (MWP) FROM 1992 TO 2023 95
ANNEXE 2: ANNUAL INSTALLED PV CAPACITY (MW) FROM 1992 TO 2023 96
ANNEXE 3: CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES 97
ANNEXE 4: COUNTRY AND MARKET GROUPINGS 98
ANNEXE 4: COUNTRY AND MARKET GROUPINGS 99

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Technology Collaboration Programme

by

IEA
PVPS