PROBABILITY AND

PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
ENS185 2nd Semester
Introduction to Data Analysis 2

PROCESS OF STATISTICS
Identify the A researcher must determine the questions he or she want answered. The
research objective questions must clearly identify the population that is to be studied.

Collect the data Conducting the data on the whole population is impractical and expensive.
However, appropriate data collection techniques must also be followed.
needed

Describe the Describe the data collected using numerical and visual tools. It gives us an
overview of the data and can help us determine which statistical tools to use
data for inference.

Perform Apply the appropriate techniques to extend the results obtained from the
sample to the population and report a level of reliability of the results.
inference
 3

Probability theory bridges the gap between

descriptive and inferential statistics.
 GENDER REVEAL
Gender selection is a medical technique used by prospective
parents who wish to choose the sex of their offspring. It can be
performed through sperm separation or genetic testing. A company
claims to have developed a gender selection method that increases
the likelihood of a baby girl.
In order to test this claim, the company test this method on a
random sample of 100 births and found that there were 75 girls and
25 boys.
CLAIM: “We have developed a gender selection method that greatly
increases the likelihood of a baby girl”.
HYPOTHESIS (STATUS QUO): “The gender selection method is
not effective. The likelihood of a baby girl is 50%”.
 GENDER REVEAL
A sample of
100 births
The
Population of • Total births 75 girls
Interest is:

The • Number of girls is equal

parameter to the number of boys 25 boys
reported (equal chances)
Descriptive statistics
• 100 samples of birth
What is the
using the gender
sample?
selection method
Using the premise that the likelihood of a
The statistic • Number of girls in
baby girl is 0.50, the probability of having
is: 100 births 75 girls in 100 births is 0.0000003.
Probability
• If the gender selection
You want to method will increase the
test likelihood of girls in
your sample
Inferential Statistics
PROBABILITY AND
PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
❑ Probability
❑ Discrete Probability Distributions
❑ Continuous Probability Distributions
PROBABILITY

Probability Rules
Addition Rule and Complements
Independence and Multiplication Rule
Conditional Probability
Counting Techniques
PROBABILITY RULES
Probability 9

PROBABILITY
The probability of an outcome is the likelihood of observing that outcome.

High likelihood High probability (close to 1)

Low likelihood Low probability (close to 0)
A random process represents scenarios where the outcome of any particular trial of
an experiment is unknown, but the proportion (or relative frequency) a particular
outcome is observed approaches a specific value as the number of trials increases.
Probability 10

PROBABILITY
In probability, an experiment is any process with uncertain results that can be
repeated. However, the results of the experiment over many trials produce regular
patterns that allow accurate predictions.

The sample space, S, of a probability experiment is the collection of all possible

outcomes.

An event is any collection of outcomes from a probability experiment. An event

consists of one outcome or more than one outcome. We will denote events with one
outcome, sometimes called simple events. In general, events are denoted using
capital letters such as E.
Presentation title 11

EXAMPLE
Problem: A probability experiment consists of
rolling a single fair die.
(a) Identify the outcomes of the probability
experiment.
(b) Determine the sample space.
(c) Define the event E=“roll an even number.”
Presentation title 12

ANSWERS
(a) Identify the outcomes of the probability
experiment.
Possible outcomes include 1,2,3,5,6
(b) Determine the sample space.
𝑺 = 𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, 𝟒, 𝟓, 𝟔
(c) Define the event E=“roll an even number.”
𝑬 = {𝟐, 𝟒, 𝟔}
Probability 13

RULES OF PROBABILITY
1. The probability of any event E, P(E), must be greater than or equal to 0 and less
than or equal to 1. That is, 0 ≤ 𝑃 𝐸 ≤ 1.
2. The sum of all probabilities of all outcomes must equal 1. That is, if the sample
space S

A probability model lists X 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

p(X) 0.028 0.094 0.083 0.111 0.139 0.167 0.139 0.111 0.083 0.094 0.028
the possible outcomes of a
probability experiment
and each outcome’s
probability. A probability
model must satisfy Rules
1 and 2 of the rules
of probabilities
Probability 14

PROBABILITY
If an event is impossible, its probability is zero. If an event is certain, its probability is
1.
An unusual event is an event that has a low probability of occurring. The typical
cutoff point is 0.05. If the probability of an event occurring is less than 0.05, it is
considered unusual. However, this is not a fixed cutoff point.
 Probability 15

LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS

As the number of trials increase, an experimental model

will be more like the theoretical probability model.

The law of large numbers

tells us as more
observations are collected
the proportion of
occurrences of an outcome
will converge to the true
probability of that outcome.
Probability 16

APPROACHES OF PROBABILITY
Empirical method
The probability of an event E is approximately the number of times event E is
observed divided by the number of repetitions of the experiment.
𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝐸
𝑃 𝐸 =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠

The probability of event E can be approximated using relative frequencies.

EXAMPLE
75 girls were born out of 100 births. Therefore, P(girl)=75/100=0.75
Probability 17

APPROACHES OF PROBABILITY
Classical method
If an experiment has n equally likely outcomes and if the number of ways that an
event E can occur is m, then the probability of E, P(E), is
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐸 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟 𝑚
𝑃 𝐸 = =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑛
So, if S is the sample space of this experiment,
𝑁(𝐸)
𝑃 𝐸 =
𝑁(𝑆)
EXAMPLE
If a fair dice is rolled, what is the probability of getting an even number?
Probability 18

APPROACHES OF PROBABILITY
Subjective probability of an outcome is a probability obtained on the basis of
personal judgment. It is important to understand that subjective probabilities are
perfectly legitimate and are often the only method of assigning likelihood to an
outcome.

EXAMPLE
Economists may be asked about the likelihood the economy will go into recession or not.
Probability 19

IMPORTANT TERMS
An event is a subset of the sample
space. 5
For example, if we toss a dice.
2
B
𝑆 = 1,2,3,4,5,6
An example of an event 1 4
Let E=event that the result is an even 6
number
𝐵 = 2,4,6
And thus, B is a subset of S. 3

S
Probability 20

IMPORTANT TERMS
The complement of an event A with
respect to S is the subset of all 5
elements of S that are not in A. We
denote the complement of A by the
2
symbol A’
1 B 4
𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐴′ = 1 6
B’={1,3,5}
B’ 3

S
Probability 21

IMPORTANT TERMS
The intersection of two events A and 1
B is the event containing all elements
common to A and B.

𝐴∩𝐵 5 4
2 B
Example:
A 6
Let A= number greater than 3
𝐴 = {4,5,6}
B= event numbers
𝐵 = {2,4,6} 3
Therefore,

S
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {4,6}
Probability 22

IMPORTANT TERMS
The union of two events A and B is the 1
event containing all elements that
belong to A or B or both
6 B
𝐴∪𝐵
2
4
Example:
Let A= number greater than 3
A 5
𝐴 = {4,5,6}
B= event numbers
𝐵 = {2,4,6}
Therefore, 3
𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = {2,4,5,6}

S
Probability 23

IMPORTANT TERMS
Disjoint or mutually exclusive
events are two events that cannot
occur at the same time.
1
3
6 B
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = ∅ = {}
5
4
Example:
Let A= even numbers
A
𝐴 = {2,4,6} 2
B= odd numbers
𝐵 = {1,3,5}
Therefore,
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {}

S
 Presentation title 24

EXAMPLE
A class contains 100 students; 70 of them like
mathematics, 60 like physics, and 40 like both. If a student
is chosen at random, using a Venn diagram, find the
probability that they like mathematics only.
 Presentation title 25

ANSWER
Begin by drawing a Venn diagram,

70-40=30 40 60-40=20

100-40-30-20=10
 Presentation title 26

ANSWER
The area of interest is shown below,

P(mathematics only)=30/100=0.30
 Presentation title 27

TRY ON YOUR OWN

In the final exams, 40% of the students failed chemistry,
25% failed physics, and 19% failed both chemistry and
physics. What is the probability that a randomly selected
student failed neither physics nor chemistry?
a) 21%
b) 44%
c) 54%
d) 46%
 Presentation title 28

EXAMPLE
A gene is composed of two alleles, either dominant or
recessive. Suppose that a husband and wife, who are both
carriers of the sickle-cell anemia allele but do not have the
disease, decide to have a child. Because both parents are
carriers of the disease, each has one dominant normal-cell
allele (S) and one recessive sickle-cell allele (s). Therefore,
the genotype of
each parent is Ss. Each parent contributes one allele to his
or her offspring, with each allele being equally likely.
a) List the possible genotypes of their offspring.
 Presentation title 29

EXAMPLE
Possible Outcomes:
𝑺 = 𝑺𝑺, 𝑺𝒔, 𝑺𝒔, 𝒔𝒔
 Presentation title 30

EXAMPLE
What is the probability that the offspring will have sickle
cell anemia?

Since sickle cell anemia, we are looking for the probability

of “ss”.

𝑛{𝑠𝑠} 1
𝑃= =
𝑛 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 4
 Presentation title 31

EXAMPLE
What is the probability that the offspring will not have
sickle-cell anemia but will be a carrier?

A carrier is an individual which has the recessive “s” gene.

𝑛{𝑆𝑠, 𝑆𝑠} 2 1
𝑃= = =
𝑛 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 4 2
 Presentation title 32

EXAMPLE
If you roll a 6-sided dice, what is the probability of getting
an even number?
a) 1/6
b) 1/3
c) 1/2
d) 5/6
 Presentation title 33

TRY IT ON YOUR OWN!

Many ranchers prefer cattle without horns. The presence
or absence of horns is genetically determined. The allele
for the absence of horns (A) is dominant to the allele for
the presence of horns (a).
A male with horns is mated with a heterozygous female
without horns. What percentage of the offspring would be
expected to have horns?
a) 25%
b) 50%
c) 75%
d) 100%
SET THEORY AND DIAGRAMS
Probability 35

THE GENERAL ADDITION RULE

The General Addition Rule calculates the probability of the union between two
events A and B, the chance either A or B or both occur.
𝑷 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 =𝑷 𝑨 +𝑷 𝑩 −𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩
If and only if A and B are disjoint, 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 0, the rule simplifies to
𝑷 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 =𝑷 𝑨 +𝑷 𝑩

𝑷 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩
𝑷 𝑨 𝑷 𝑩 𝑷 𝑨 ∩𝑩

= + −

Intersection Must subtract

counted twice! area once.
THE ADDITION RULE AND
COMPLEMENTS
Probability 37

THE GENERAL ADDITION RULE

The General Addition Rule calculates the probability of the union between two
events A and B, the chance either A or B or both occur.
𝑷 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 =𝑷 𝑨 +𝑷 𝑩 −𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩
If and only if A and B are disjoint, 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 0, the rule simplifies to
𝑷 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 =𝑷 𝑨 +𝑷 𝑩

𝑷 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩
𝑷 𝑨 𝑷 𝑩 𝑷 𝑨 ∩𝑩

= + −

Intersection Must subtract

counted twice! area once.
Probability 38

ADDITION RULE FOR DISJOINT EVENTS

Two events are disjoint if they have no outcomes in common. Another name for
disjoint events is mutually exclusive events.

Addition Rule for Disjoint Events

If events E and F are disjoint, then

𝑃 𝐸 𝑜𝑟 𝐹 = 𝑃 𝐸 + 𝑃(𝐹)
Probability 39

COMPLEMENT RULE
Two events are disjoint if they have no outcomes in common. Another name for
disjoint events is mutually exclusive events.

Addition Rule for Disjoint Events

If events E and F are disjoint, then

𝑃 𝐸 𝑜𝑟 𝐹 = 𝑃 𝐸 + 𝑃(𝐹)
Presentation title 40

EXAMPLE
An African Safari touring company claims
that on the tour the probability you will see
a giraffe is 75%, an elephant is 65% and the
probability you will see both a giraffe and
an elephant is 55%.
What is the probability you see either a
giraffe or elephant or both?
Presentation title 41

ANSWER
Let G= seeing a giraffe, E=seeing an
elephant where P(G)=0.75, P(E)=0.65,
𝑃 𝐺 ∩ 𝐸 = 0.55

Find: 𝑃 𝐺 ∪ 𝐸

𝑃 𝐺∪𝐸 =𝑃 𝐺 +𝑃 𝐸 −𝑃 𝐺∩𝐸
𝑃 𝐺 ∪ 𝐸 = 0.75 + 0.65 − 0.55 = 0.85
Presentation title 42

TRY IT ON YOUR OWN

In a standard deck of 52 cards, find the
probability of choosing a card at random
that is a spade or 7?
a) 1/52
b) 4/13
c) 1/13
d) 17/52
Presentation title 43

TRY IT ON YOUR OWN

Data were collected on 100 students
regarding their class and major.

a) 0.19
b) 0.59
c) 0.40
d) 0.29
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Probability 45

INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Two events E and F are independent if the occurrence of event E in
probability experiment does not affect the probability of event F. Two events
are dependent if the occurrence of event E in a probability experiment affects
the probability of event F.

QUESTIONS?
1. Suppose you flip a coin and roll a dice. Are the two events independent?
2. Event A: Earned a bachelor’s degree; Event B: earn at least P30,000 per month

Note: Disjoint events are different from independent events.

Probability 46

MULTIPLICATION RULE
If and only if A and B are independent, the Multiplication Rule for Independent
Events can be used to find the intersection between two events.
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 ×𝑃 𝐵

This rule can be applied to any k number of independent events.

IN THE GAME OF MONOPOLY IF A

PLAYER ROLLS TWO DICE AND GETS
DOUBLES (TWO OF THE SAME VALUE)
THEY GET TO ROLL AGAIN. HOWEVER, IF
THEY ROLL DOUBLES THREE TIMES IN A
ROW THEY GO STRAIGHT TO JAIL!
WHAT IS THE CHANCE A PLAYER WILL
ROLL THREE DOUBLES IN A ROW?
Presentation title 47

EXAMPLE
In the game of roulette, the wheel has slots
numbered 0, 00, and 1 through 36. A metal
ball rolls around a wheel until it falls into
one of the numbered slots. What is the
probability that the ball will land in the slot
numbered 17 two times in a row?
Presentation title 48

ANSWER
There are 38 possible outcomes. Using the
classical method, the probability of landing
in 17 is 1/38.

Let 𝑒1 = 17 𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑝𝑖𝑛 1, 𝑒2 = 17 𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑝𝑖𝑛 2

Find: 𝑃(𝑒1 ∩ 𝑒2 ). Since the two events are
independent, just multiply the two
probabilities.
1 1
𝑃 𝑒1 ∩ 𝑒2 = 𝑃𝑒1 × 𝑃𝑒2 = ×
38 38
𝑃 𝑒1 ∩ 𝑒2 = 0.0006925
Presentation title 49

TRY ON YOUR OWN

You have a 73% chance of passing any stats
quiz. What is the probability you fail one
quiz, then pass the next 3?

a) 39%
b) 11%
c) 8%
d) 32%
Presentation title 50

TRY ON YOUR OWN

The probability of getting two tails when
two coins are tossed is
a) 1/6
b) 1/2
c) 1/3
d) 1/4
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Probability 52

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
The notation 𝑃 𝐹 𝐸 is read “the probability of event F given event E.” It is the
probability that the event F occurs, given that the event E has occurred.
𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐸)
𝑃 𝐹𝐸 =
𝑃(𝐸)

Conditional probabilities redefine the sample space to include only events that
are in the conditional subset E.
Probability 53

EXAMPLE
A recent study from Pew Research Center
indicates 77% of adults in the United States use a
smartphone (SP) to access the internet, while
65% access the internet at home with a
broadband (BB) service and 52% access with
both a smartphone and broadband. Given
someone accesses the internet with broadband,
what is the chance they also access the internet a
smartphone?
Probability 54

SOLUTION
Let
S= event someone uses a smartphone
B= event someone uses a broadband
P(S)=0.77, P(B)=0.65, P(S and B)=0.52

Find 𝑃 𝑆 𝐵
𝑃(𝑆 ∩ 𝐵) 0.52
𝑃 𝑆𝐵 = =
𝑃(𝐵) 0.65
Probability 55

TRY ON YOUR OWN

In a survey among few people, 60% read Hindi
newspaper, 40% read English newspaper and
20% read both. If a person is chosen at random
and if he already reads English newspaper, find
the probability that he also reads Hindi
newspaper.
a) 60%
b) 50%
c) 40%
d) 30%
Probability 56

BAYES’ THEOREM
can be used to find a conditional probability when only other conditional
probabilities are known. The formula is a combination the Law of Total
Probability and the Multiplication Rule.

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 = =
𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃 𝐴 × 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 + 𝑃(𝐴′ ) × 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴′
Probability 57

EXAMPLE
A doctor is called to see a sick child. The doctor has prior information that 90% of
sick children in that neighborhood have the flu, while the other 10% are sick with
measles. Let F stand for an event of a child being sick with flu and M stand for an
event of a child being sick with measles.
A well-known symptom of measles is a rash. Assume that the probability of having
a rash if one has measles is 0.95. However, occasionally children with flu also
develop rash, and the probability of having a rash if one has flu is 0.08.
Upon examining the child, the doctor finds a rash. What is the probability that the
child has measles?
Probability 58

ANSWER
Let F= a child has flu, M= a child has measles, R= occurrence of measles
Find 𝑃 𝑀 𝑅

𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑅)
𝑃 𝑀𝑅 =
𝑃(𝑅)
𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑅)
𝑃 𝑀𝑅 =
𝑃 𝑀 ∩ 𝑅 + 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝑅)
𝑃 𝑀 𝑃 𝑅𝑀
𝑃 𝑀𝑅 =
𝑃 𝑀 𝑃 𝑅 𝑀 +𝑃 𝐹 𝑃 𝑅 𝐹
0.10(0.95)
𝑃 𝑀𝑅 =
0.10(0.95) + 0.90(0.08)
𝑃 𝑀 𝑅 = 0.5688
Probability 59

ANSWER
Another way of solving these types of problem is by creating a contingency
table.

n=100 Has a Rash Has NO Rash Total

Flu 90(0.08)=7.2 90(1-0.08)=82.8 90
Measles 10(0.95)=9.5 10(1-0.95)=0.5 10
16.7 83.3 100
Probability 60

ANSWER
Therefore,
𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑅) 9.5
𝑃 𝑀𝑅 = = = 0.5688
𝑃(𝑅) 16.7

Tip: You may use either of the two illustrations whichever you are more
comfortable with.
Probability 61

TRY ON YOUR OWN

It is estimated that 50% of emails are spam emails. Some software has been
applied to filter these spam emails before they reach your inbox. A certain brand
of software claims that it can detect 99% of spam emails, and the probability for a
false positive (a non-spam email detected as spam) is 5%.
Now if an email is detected as spam, then what is the probability that it is in fact a
non-spam email?
a) 95.2%
b) 99%
c) 4.87%
d) 61.33%
VISUAL AIDS TO SOLVING
PROBABILITY PROBLEMS
Probability 63

VENN DIAGRAMS
Venn diagrams can be used to represents events and sample spaces. Let the circles
enclosed in the rectangle be an event. The rectangle is the sample space.

Event
M
M and I
Event
I

Not M nor I
Probability 64

EXAMPLE
A recent study from Pew Research Center indicates 77% of adults in the United
States use a smartphone (S) to access the internet, while 65% access the internet at
home with a broadband (B) service and 52% access with both a smartphone and
broadband. Draw the Venn diagram.

Complete the Venn diagram (𝑆 ∩ 𝐵′ )

Given that: P(S)=0.77, P(B)=0.65, P(S and B)=0.52 S
1. Find 𝑆 ∩ 𝐵′
(𝐵 ∩ 𝑆 ′ )
𝑆 ∩ 𝐵′ = 𝑆 − 𝑆 ∩ 𝐵 = 0.77 − 0.52 = 0.25
2. Find 𝑆′ ∩ 𝐵
𝑆′ ∩ 𝐵 = 𝐵 − 𝑆 ∩ 𝐵 = 0.65 − 0.52 = 0.13 S and B
2. Find (𝑆 ∪ 𝐵)′
0.52
Event
𝑆 ∪ 𝐵 ′ = 1 − 𝑆 ∪ 𝐵 = 1 − [𝑆 + 𝐵 − (𝑆 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑆 ∪ 𝐵 ′ = 1 − 0.65 + 0.77 − 0.52 = 1 − 0.90 I
= 0.10

Not S nor B
Probability 65

EXAMPLE
A recent study from Pew Research Center indicates 77% of adults in the United
States use a smartphone (S) to access the internet, while 65% access the internet at
home with a broadband (B) service and 52% access with both a smartphone and
broadband

S
0.25
S and B
0.52
Event
0.13 I

Not S nor B 0.10

Probability 66

CONTINGENCY TABLES
A table showing the distribution of one variable in rows and another in columns,
used to study the association between the two variable.
Most of the time, the contingency table is readily given but we can also create our
own based on the given information.

Contingency tables are also great for solving conditional probabilities easily.
 67

An individual has 3 email accounts. The likelihood any

email comes from Account 1 is 0.5, from Account 2 is 0.3
and from Account 3 is 0.2. From each account the chance an
email is spam is 0.10, 0.30 and 0.80 for accounts 1,2 and 3
respectively. Create a contingency table.

67
Probability 68

SOLUTION
Assuming that 100 emails are received (you can assume 1000 or any value).

Emails Received
Account 1 Account 2 Account 3 Total
Spam 50(0.10)=5 30(0.30)=9 20(0.80)=16 30
Not Spam 50(1-0.10)45 30(1-0.30)=21 20(1-0.80)=4 70
100(0.50)= 100(0.30)= 100(0.20)= 100
50 30 20

Distribution of emails received per account

 69

Given a email came from account 1 what is the chance it

isn’t spam? Intersection of account 1 and not spam

Emails Received
Account 1 Account 2 Account 3 Total
Spam 50(0.10)=5 30(0.30)=9 20(0.80)=16 30
Not Spam 50(1-0.10)45 30(1-0.30)=21 20(1-0.80)=4 70
100(0.50)= 100(0.30)= 100(0.20)= 100
50 30 20
𝑛 1 ∩ 𝑆′ 45
𝑃 𝑆′ 1 = = = 0.90
𝑛 1 50

69
 70

Given an email is spam what is the chance it came from

account 3? Intersection of account 3 and spam

Emails Received
Account 1 Account 2 Account 3 Total
Spam 50(0.10)=5 30(0.30)=9 20(0.80)=16 30
Not Spam 50(1-0.10)45 30(1-0.30)=21 20(1-0.80)=4 70
100(0.50)= 100(0.30)= 100(0.20)= 100
50 30 20
𝑛 3∩𝑆 16
𝑃 3𝑆 = = = 0.533
𝑛 𝑆 30

70
Probability 71

TREE DIAGRAMS
A Tree Diagram depicts the outcomes of events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , … 𝐴𝑘 on a set of initial
branches. Secondary branches represent conditional probabilities for events
𝐵1 , 𝐵2 , … 𝐵𝑗 . Each set of branches must sum to one.
𝑃(𝐵1 |𝑨𝟏 ) 𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐵1 )
𝑃 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐴2 + 𝑃 𝐴3 = 1
𝑃(𝑨𝟏 ) 𝑃(𝐵2 |𝑨𝟏 )
𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐵2 ) 𝑃 𝐵1 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐵2 𝐴1 = 1
𝑃(𝐵1 |𝑨𝟐 ) 𝑃(𝐴2 ∩ 𝐵1 )
𝑃(𝑨𝟐 ) 𝑃 𝐵1 𝐴2 + 𝑃 𝐵2 𝐴2 = 1
𝑃(𝐵2 |𝑨𝟐 )
𝑃(𝐴2 ∩ 𝐵2 )
𝑃(𝑨𝟑 ) 𝑃(𝐵 |𝑨
1 𝟑 ) 𝑃(𝐴3 ∩ 𝐵1 ) 𝑃 𝐵1 𝐴3 + 𝑃 𝐵2 𝐴3 = 1
𝑃(𝐵2 |𝑨𝟑 ) 𝑃 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐵1 + 𝑃 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐵2 + 𝑃 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐵1
𝑃(𝐴3 ∩ 𝐵2 ) + 𝑃 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐵2 + 𝑃 𝐴3 ∩ 𝐵1
General Tree Diagram
+ 𝑃 𝐴3 ∩ 𝐵2 = 1
The general Multiplication Rule allows us to calculate the intersection, the
probability that events A and B both occur.

𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 × 𝑃 𝐵𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐵 × 𝑃 𝐴𝐵
 72

An individual has 3 email accounts. The likelihood any

email comes from Account 1 is 0.5, from Account 2 is 0.3
and from Account 3 is 0.2. From each account the chance an
email is spam is 0.10, 0.30 and 0.80 for accounts 1,2 and 3
respectively. Create a tree diagram.

72
Create a tree diagram. 73

𝑆 1 = 0.10 𝑃 1 ∩ 𝑆 = 0.50 × 0.10 = 0.05

Account 1=0.50
𝑆′ 1 = 1 − 0.10 = 0.90 𝑃 1 ∩ 𝑆 ′ = 0.90 × 0.50 = 0.45

𝑆 2 = 0.30 𝑃 2 ∩ 𝑆 = 0.30 × 0.30 = 0.09

Account 2=0.30
𝑆′ 2 = 1 − 0.30 = 0.70 𝑃 2 ∩ 𝑆′ = 0.30 × 0.70 = 0.21

𝑆 3 = 0.80 𝑃 3 ∩ 𝑆 = 0.20 × 0.80 = 0.16

Account 3=0.20
𝑆′ 3 = 1 − 0.80 = 0.20 𝑃 3 ∩ 𝑆′ = 0.20 × 0.20 = 0.04
73
Given a email came from account 1 what is the chance it 74

isn’t spam?
𝑆 1 = 0.10
Account 1=0.50
𝑆′ 1 = 1 − 0.10 = 0.90

𝑆 2 = 0.30
Account 2=0.30
𝑆′ 2 = 1 − 0.30 = 0.70

𝑆 3 = 0.80
Account 3=0.20
𝑆′ 3 = 1 − 0.80 = 0.20
74
Given an email is spam what is the chance it came from 75

account 3?
𝑆 1 = 0.10
Account 1=0.50
𝑆′ 1 = 1 − 0.10 = 0.90 𝑃(3 ∩ 𝑆)
𝑃 3𝑆 =
𝑃 3 ∩ 𝑆 + 𝑃 2 ∩ 𝑆 + 𝑃(1 ∩ 𝑆)
0.16 0.16
𝑆 2 = 0.30 𝑃 3𝑆 = =
0.16 + 0.05 + 0.09 0.30
Account 2=0.30
𝑆′ 2 = 1 − 0.30 = 0.70

𝑆 3 = 0.80
Account 3=0.20
𝑆′ 3 = 1 − 0.80 = 0.20
75
COUNTING TECHNIQUES
Probability 77

COUNTING TECHNIQUES
Probability problems typically require that we know the total number of
simple events.
Probability 78

MULTIPLICATION RULE
If a task consists of a sequence of choices in which there are p selections for the
first choice, q selections for the second choice, r selections for the third choice, and
so on, then the task of making these selections can be done in

𝑝 ∙ 𝑞 ∙ 𝑟…∙ 𝑧
different ways
Presentation title 79

EXAMPLE
How many 4-number codes can
you generate?
A)Assuming you can repeat digits.
B) Assuming you cannot repeat
digits.
Presentation title 80

TRY ON YOUR OWN

A security code consists of 3 letters
followed by 1 digit. The first letter in the
code must be a vowel. How many
different security codes are possible?
A) 33800
B) 175760
C) 141960
D) 3390
Probability 81

FACTORIAL RULE
It is used to find the total number of ways that n different items
can be rearranged when all of them are selected.

𝑁 = 𝑛!

Where n is the number of different items.

Probability 82

PERMUTATION
A permutation is an ordered arrangement in which r objects are chosen from
n distinct (different) objects so that r≤n and repetition is not allowed. The
symbol 𝑛 𝑃𝑟 , represents the number of permutations of r objects selected
from n objects

In a permutation, objects with different arrangements are counted separately

(abc, cba, acb are 3 arrangements)
𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !

Where n is the number of different items.

Presentation title 83

EXAMPLE
At the local library, 15 students enter a short-
story contest. How many ways could the first-
place, second-place, and third-place prizes be
awarded?
Presentation title 84

TRY ON YOUR OWN

At the local library, 15 students enter a short-
story contest. How many ways could the first-
place, second-place, and third-place prizes be
awarded?
Probability 85

COMBINATION
A combination is a collection, without regard to order, in which r objects are
chosen from n distinct objects with r≤n and without repetition. The symbol
nCr represents the number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a
time.

In a permutation, objects with different arrangements are counted as one (abc,

cba, acb are counted as 1)
𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 !

Where n is the number of different items.

Presentation title 86

EXAMPLE
In the Illinois Lottery, an urn contains balls
numbered 1–52. From this urn,
six balls are randomly chosen without
replacement. For a $1 bet, a player chooses two
sets of six numbers. To win, all six numbers must
match those chosen from the urn. The
order in which the balls are picked does not
matter. What is the probability of winning
the lottery?
Presentation title 87

TRY ON YOUR OWN

After the tryouts for the volleyball
team, the coach selects 14 people to
join the team. Due to a problem with
transportation, only 9 people can
travel. In how many ways can the
coach pick the people to go?
A) 726485760
B) 2002
C)630
D)126
Presentation title 88

TRY ON YOUR OWN

There are 17 points on the
circumference of a circle. How many
lines can be drawn to connect all
possible pairs of points? 2002
A)289
B) 34
C)136
D)272
 Probability 89

PERMUTATION WITH NON-DISTINCT ITEMS

The number of permutations of n objects of which 𝑛1 are of one kind, 𝑛2 are
of a second kind,…, and 𝑛𝑘 are a kth kind is given by
𝑛!
𝑁=
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 ! … 𝑛𝑘 !
Presentation title 90

EXAMPLE
Find the number of rearrangements of the letters
in the word “CARRIER”
Presentation title 91

TRY ON YOUR OWN

After a sports, tournament every player shakes
hands with every other player once. If there are
36 handshakes in total, how many players are at
the tournament?
A) 18
B) 8
C) 10
D) 9
Presentation title 92

TRY ON YOUR OWN

At a school cafeteria, a meal consists of a main
dish, a side dish, and a dessert. There are 3 main
dishes, 4 side dishes, and 7 desserts to choose
from. How many different meals are possible?
A) 36
B) 84
C) 45
D) 14
Presentation title 93

TRY ON YOUR OWN

There are 6 men and 9 women available for
selection on a 6-person committee. If the
committee must have at least one man, the
number of possible committees is
A) 2264
B) 2459
C) 3580
D) 4921
Presentation title 94

TRY ON YOUR OWN

The number of distinguishable arrangements
that can be made from the word KITCHEN, if
the vowels must stay together.
A) 2! x 5! x 2!
B) 2! x 5!
C) 7P2 x 5P5
D) 2! x 6!
Presentation title 95

TRY ON YOUR OWN

A grocery store manager is trying to decide how
to arrange the following items in the produce
aisle: avocados, pumpkin, eggplant, squash,
watermelon. The items can be arranged in any
order, but the manager does not want the
pumpkins and watermelons together.
A) 5
B) 45
C) 72
D) 120
REFERENCE
Statistics: Informed Decisions
using Data with Integrated
Review by Michael Sullivan III