STATISTICAL INFERENCE

-LECTURE 02
Dr. Mahmoud Mounir
[email protected]
 The Normal Distribution

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 Introduction

❑ Normal Distribution.

❑ Applications of the Normal Distribution.

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 The Normal Distribution

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 (b) Negatively skewed (c) Positively skewed

(a) Normal
Mean =Median=Mode

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❑A normal distribution is
a continuous ,
symmetric ,
bell shaped distribution of a variable.

❑ A normal distribution curve depend on two parameters .

µ Position parameter

σ shape parameter

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 The mathematical equation for the normal distribution:

2
−( x− ) 2
2
e
y=
 2
where
e ≈ 2 .718
π ≈ 3.14
µ ≈ population mean
σ ≈ population standard deviation

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1 (1) Different
means but same
standard
deviations.

Normal curves
with μ1 = μ2 and
2 σ1<σ2

(2) Same means

but different
standard
deviations .

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 (3) Different
3 means and
different standard
deviations .

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 Properties of the Normal Distribution

❑ The normal distribution curve is bell-shaped.

❑ The mean, median, and mode are equal and located at
the center of the distribution.
❑ The normal distribution curve is unimodal (single mode).
❑ The curve is symmetrical about the mean.
❑ The curve is continuous.
❑ The curve never touches the x-axis.
❑ The total area under the normal distribution curve is
equal to 1 or 100%.
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❑ The area under the normal distribution curve that lies
within
➢ one standard deviation of the mean is approximately
0.68 (68%). The interval between ( , )

➢two standard deviations of the mean is approximately

0.95 (95%). The interval between ( , )

➢three standard deviations of the mean is approximately

0.997 (99.7%). The interval between ( , )

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 Empirical Rule: Normal Distribution

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 The Standard Normal
Distribution

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❑ The standard normal distribution is a normal
distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation
of 1.

❑ The formula for the standard normal distribution is

 =0

 =1

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❑ All Normal Distribution can be transformed into standard
Distribution.

or

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 Empirical Rule: Standard Normal Distribution

 =0

 =1

Normal Distribution Curve Standard Normal Distribution Curve

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❑ The area under the standard normal distribution curve
that lies within

➢ one standard deviation of the mean is approximately

0.68 (68%). The interval between (-1,1).

➢two standard deviations of the mean is approximately

0.95 (95%). The interval between (-2,2).

➢three standard deviations of the mean is approximately

0.997 (99.7%). The interval between (-3,3).
 Finding Areas Under the Standard Normal
Distribution Curve:

1. To the left of any Z value

P(z<-a) = P(z>a) = Q(a)

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 2.To the right of any Z value

P(z>-a) = P(z>a) = 1 - Q(a)

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 3.Between any two Z values

P(-b<z<-a) = P(a<z<b) = P(z>a) – P(z>b)

= Q(a) – Q(b)

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 Examples
a. Area to the left of z = 1.36: P( z< 1.36)

= 0.9131
 Examples
b. Area to the left of z = -0.60: P(z < −0.60)

= 0.2743
 Examples
c. Area to the right of z = 1.47: P(z > 1.47)

= 1- P(z < 1.47)

= 1 – 0.9292
= 0.0708
 Examples
d. Area to the right of z = -0.33: P(z > −0.33)

= 1- P(z < −0.33)

= 1 – 0.3707
= 0.6293
 Examples
e. Area between z = -2.16 and z = 0.45: P(−2.16 < z < 0.45)

= P(z < 0.45) - P(z < −2.16)

= 0.6736 – 0.0154
= 0.6582
 Examples
f. Area between z = 1.13 and z = 3.10: P(1.13 < z < 3.10)

= P(z < 3.1) - P(z < 1.13)

= 0.9990 – 0.8708
= 0.1282
Example (1):
Find the area to the left of z=1.99

P(Z<1.99)=0.9767

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 Column 1.9 9 row

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Example (2):
Find the area to the right of z=-1.16

P(Z>-1.16)=1-P(Z<-1.16)
=1-0.1230
= 0.8770
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Example (3):
Find the area between z=1.68 and z=-1.37

P(-1.37<Z<1.68)=P(Z<1.68)-P(Z<-1.37)
= 0.9535-0.0853
= 0.8682
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 A Normal Distribution Curve as a Probability
Distribution Curve:

❑ The area under the standard normal distribution curve

can also be thought of as a probability .

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Example (4):
Find probability for each
a) P(0<z<2.23)
b) P(z<1.65)
c) P(z>1.91)

a) P(0<Z<2.23)=P(Z<2.23)-P(Z<0)
=0.9898-0.5000
=0.4898
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 b) P(Z<1.65)=0.9505

c) P(Z>1.91)=1-P(Z<1.91)
=1-0.9719
=0.0281

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 Find the Z value that corresponds to given area
1 2

Z Z
we cannot find the area in the table Look up the area in table E to
find the z value

3 4

Z Z
we cannot find the area in the table
Look up the area in table E to
find the z value

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For exmples 5 to 12:
5 6
0.0188 0.9671

Z Z

z = -2.08 z = 1.84Z
7 8
0.0239 0.8962

Z
Z
1- 0.0239 = 0.9761 1- 0.8962 = 0.1038
z = 1.98 z = -1.26

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 5 10 a
a

Z Z
0.5000 + a = ---- 0.5000 – a = ----
z = look in the table E z = look in the table E
11 12
0.4175
0.4066

Z Z

0.5000 + 0.4066= 0.9066 0.5000 - 0.4175= 0.0825

z = 1.32 z = -1.39

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 Example (13):
Find the z value such that the area under the standard
normal distribution curve between 0 and the z value
is 0.2123

0.2123+0.5000=0.7123
Z=0.56
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1) Find the z value to the left of the mean so that
98.87% of the area under the distribution curve lies to
the right of it.

2) Find two z values so that 48% of the middle area is

bounded by them.

3) Find two z values, one positive and one negative, that

are equidistant from the mean so that the area in the two
tails total the following values (5%).

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Example (1):
A survey by the National Retail Federation found that
women spend on average $146.21 for the Christmas
holidays. Assume the standard deviation is $29.44.
Find the percentage of women who spend less than
$160. Assume the variable is normally distributed.

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Solution: Step 3: Find the area using Z-table
FIND P (X < 160)
Step 1: Find the z value .
X −  160 − 146.21
Z = =
 29.44
= 0.47 P(Z < 0.47) = 0.6808
Step 2: Draw the figure
68.08% of the women spend
less than 160$ at Christmas
time.

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Example (2):
Each month, an American household generates an
average of 28 pounds of newspaper for garbage or
recycling. Assume the standard deviation is 2 pounds.
If a household is selected at random, Find the
probability of its generating.
a) Between 27 and 31 pounds per month
b) More than 30.2 pounds per month
Assume the variable is approximately normally
distributed.

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Solution (a) :
FIND P (27 < X < 31)
Step 1: Find the two z values
X − 27 − 28
Z1 = = = −0.5
 2

X − 31 − 28
Z2 = = = 1.5
 2
Step 2: Draw the figure

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Step 3: Find the area using Z-table

P(-0.5 < Z < 1.5) = P(Z < 1.5) - P(Z < -0.5)
= 0.9332 - 0.3085 = 0.6247

The probability that household generates between 27

and 31 pounds of newspapers per month is 62.47%

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Solution (b) :
FIND P (X > 30.2)
Step 1: Find the z value
X − 30.2 − 28
Z = = = 1.1
 2

Step 2: Draw the figure

0 1.1

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Step 3: Find the area using Z-table

P(Z > 1.1) = 1- P(Z < 1.1) = 1 - 0.8643 = 0.1375

The probability that household generates more than

30.2 pounds of newspapers is 0.1375 or 13.75%

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Example (3):
The American Automobile Association reports that
the average time it takes to respond to an emergency
call is 25 minutes. Assume the variable is
approximately normally distributed and the
standard deviation is 4.5 minutes. If 80 calls are
randomly selected, approximately how many will be
responded to in less than 15 minutes?

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Solution:
FIND P (X < 15)
Step 1: Find the z value
X − 15 − 25
Z = = = −2.22
 4.5

Step 2: Draw the figure

-2.22 0

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Step 3: Find the area using Z-table

P(Z < -2.22) = 0.0132

Step 4: to find how many calls

0.0132 × 80 = 1.056 ≈ 1

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 Finding Data Values Given Specific Probabilities

Formula for Finding X:

X = z  + 
we must use that three steps.

First Step: draw the figure and Shading the area.

Second Step: find the z , using Z-table.
Third Step : find the X ,using the formula .

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Example (4):
To qualify for a police academy, candidates must
score in the top 10% on a general abilities test. The
test has a mean of 200 and standard deviation of 20.
Find the lowest possible score to qualify. Assume the
test scores is normally distributed.

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Solution:
Step 1: Draw the figure

Step 2: Find the z value

P(Z > z) = 0.1
P(Z > z) = 1- 0.1 = 0.9 Step 3: Find the value of x
Z=1.28 X = (1.28)(20) + 200 = 226
Any body scoring 226 or higher will
qualify
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Example (5):
For a medical study, a researcher wishes to select
people in the middle 60% of the population based on
blood pressure. If the mean systolic blood pressure is
120 and the standard deviation is 8, find the upper and
lower readings that would qualify people to
participate in the study. Assume that blood pressure
readings is normally distributed.

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Solution:
Step 1: Draw the figure

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Step 2 : Find the two z values . X = z  + 
P (Z > Z1) = 0.2 P (Z < Z2) = 0.2
P (Z < Z1) = 1-0.2 = 0.8
Z1 = 0.84 Z 2 = −0.84

Step 3 :Find the two values of x.

X 1 = Z1   + 
X 2 = Z 2   + 
X 1 = (0.84)(8) + 120 = 126.72 X 2 = (−0.84)(8) + 120 = 113.28

The middle 60% will have blood pressure reading of

113.28<X<126.72

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Example (6):
Given a normal distribution with a mean of 25, what
is the standard deviation if 18% of the values are
above 29?
Solution:
P (X > 29) = 0.18
P (X < 29) = 1- 0.18 = 0.82
𝑥−μ
P (Z < ) = 0.82
σ
29 −25
P (Z < ) = 0.82
σ
4
P (Z < ) = 0.82
σ

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 From the Z- Table
4
= 0.92
σ

0.92 σ = 4
𝝈 = 4.35

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Example (7):
Given a normal distribution with a standard deviation
of 10, what is the mean if 21% of the values are below
50?
Solution:

P (X < 50) = 0.21

𝑥−μ
P (Z < ) = 0.21
σ
50 −μ
P (Z < ) = 0.21
10

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 From the Z- Table
50 −μ
= -0.81
10

50 - μ = -8.1
𝝁= 58.1

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Example (8):
Given a normal distribution with 80% of the values
are above 125 and 90% of the values are above 110,
what are the mean and standard deviation of this
distribution?
Solution:
P (X > 125) = 0.8
P (X < 125) = 1- 0.8 = 0.2
𝑥−μ
P (Z < ) = 0.2
σ
125 −μ
P (Z < ) = 0.2
σ

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From the Z- Table
125 −μ
= -0.84 → (1)
σ

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 P (X > 110) = 0.9
P (X < 110) = 1- 0.9 = 0.1
𝑥−μ
P (Z < ) = 0.1
σ
110 −μ
P (Z < ) = 0.1
σ

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From the Z- Table
110 −μ
= -1.28 → (2)
σ

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 From Equations (1) and (2)
125 −μ
= -0.84
σ
𝟏𝟐𝟓 − 𝝁 = -0.84𝝈 → (1)
110 −μ
= -1.28
σ
𝟏𝟏𝟎 − 𝝁 = -1.28𝝈 → (2)
Subtract (2) from (1)
-15 = -0. 𝟒𝟒𝟐𝝈
𝝈 = 33.9
Substitute in (2)
𝟏𝟏𝟎 − 𝝁 = -1.28(33.9)
𝝁 = 153.5
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1-If X is normally distributed random variable with µ = 5 ,
σ = 4 , find the P(x> -1.4) ??
 Discrete Probability
Distributions
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 The Binomial Distribution
Mean, Variance and Standard deviation for
The Binomial Distribution
❑ Many types of probability problems have only
two possible outcomes or they can be reduced to
two outcomes.

❑ Examples include: when a coin is tossed it can

land on heads or tails, when a baby is born it is
either a boy or girl, etc.
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The binomial experiment is a probability experiment
that satisfies these requirements:
1. Each trial can have only two possible
outcomes—success or failure.
2. There must be a fixed number of trials.
3. The outcomes of each trial must be
independent of each other.
4. The probability of success must remain the
same for each trial.

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 Notation for the Binomial Distribution
P(S) :The symbol for the probability of success
P(F) :The symbol for the probability of failure
p :The numerical probability of success
q :The numerical probability of failure
P(S) = p and P(F) = 1 – p = q
n :The number of trials
X :The number of successes
Note that X = 0, 1, 2, 3,...,n

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In a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly
X successes in n trials is

or
P( X ) = n Cx  p q
X n− X

number of possible probability of a

desired outcomes desired outcome

n!
P( X ) =  p q
X n− X

( n - X )! X !

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A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting
exactly 2 heads.
n=3
x= 2
Solution :
p=

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Example (2): Survey on Doctor Visits
A survey found that one out of five Americans say he or she
has visited a doctor in any given month. If 10 people are
selected at random, find the probability that exactly 3 will
have visited a doctor last month.
n = 10
Solution :
x= 3
n!
P( X ) =  p X  q n− X
( n - X )! X ! p=
3 7
10!  1  4
P ( 3) =      = 0.201
7!3!  5  5

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Example (3): Survey on Employment
A survey from Teenage Research Unlimited (Northbrook, Illinois) found
that 30% of teenage consumers receive their spending money from part-
time jobs. If 5 teenagers are selected at random, find the probability that
at least 3 of them will have part-time jobs. n=5
Solution :
5! x= 3,4,5
P ( 3) =  ( 0.30 )  ( 0.70 ) = 0.132
3 2

2!3!
5!
P ( 4) =  ( 0.30 )  ( 0.70 ) = 0.028
4 1

1!4! p=0.30
5!
P ( 5) =  ( 0.30 )  ( 0.70 ) = 0.002
5 0

0!5!
q=1-0.30 =0.70
P ( X  3 ) = 0.132
+0.028
+0.002
= 0.162
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Example (4): Survey on Employment
There are ten questions on a multiple – choice quiz each question with
five choices in each. Let X represents the number of questions a student
answers correctly.
1. What are the possible values of X?
2. Find the probability distribution.
3. What is the probability that a student will get 6 out of 10?
4. What is the probability that a student will pass the quiz?
5. Find the expected number and the standard deviation for the correct
answer.

n!
P( X ) =  p X  q n− X
( n - X )! X !

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Example (4): Survey on Employment
There are ten questions on a multiple – choice quiz each question with
five choices in each. Let X represents the number of questions a student
answers correctly.
1. What are the possible values of X?
2. Find the probability distribution.
3. What is the probability that a student will get 6 out of 10?
4. What is the probability that a student will pass the quiz?
5. Find the expected number and the standard deviation for the correct
answer. n = 10
x=0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,
8,9,10
n!
P( X ) =  p X  q n− X
( n - X )! X ! p=0.1
q=1-0.1 =0.90
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 Mean, Variance and Standard deviation
for the binomial
The mean , variance and SD of a variable that the
binomial distribution can be found by using the
following formulas:
Mean:  = np

Variance:  = npq 2

Standard Deviation:  = npq

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Example (4): Tossing A Coin

A coin is tossed 4 times. Find the mean, variance and standard

deviation of number of heads that will be obtained.
Solution :
n=4

p=

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Example (5): Rolling a die
A die is rolled 360 times , find the mean , variance and
slandered deviation of the number of 4s that will be rolled .
n = 360
Solution :
p=

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Example (6):

The probability that a driver must stop at any one traffic

light coming to Lincoln University is 0.2. There are 15 sets
of traffic lights on the journey.

a) What is the probability that a student must stop at exactly

2 of the 15 sets of traffic lights?

b) What is the probability that a student will be stopped at 1

or more of the 15 sets of traffic lights?

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 Solution (6.a) :

n!
P( X ) =  p X  q n− X n = 15
( n - X )! X !
x= 2
15!
𝑃 𝑥=2 = (0.2)2 (0.8)(15−2)
15 − 2 ! 2! p=0.2
15! q=1- 0.2 = 0.8
𝑃 𝑥=2 = 0.2 2 (0.8)13 = 0.2309
13! (2!)

= 23.09 %

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 Solution (6.b) :

n!
P( X ) =  p X  q n− X n = 15
( n - X )! X !
x= 1,2, …, 15

p=0.2
15!
𝑃 𝑥=0 = (0.2)0 (0.8)(15−0) q=1- 0.2 = 0.8
15 − 0 ! 0!

15!
𝑃 𝑥=0 = 0.2 0 (0.8)15 = 0.0352
15! (0!)
𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 1 = 1 − 𝑃 𝑋 = 0 = 1 − 0.0352 = 0.9648 = 96.48%

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A coin is tossed 72 times. The standard deviation for the number of
heads that will be tossed is
A) 18
B) 4.24
C) 6
D) 36
A student takes a 6 question multiple choice quiz with 4 choices for
each question. If the student guesses at random on each question, what
is the probability that the student gets exactly 3 questions correct?
A) 0.088
B) 0.0512
C) 0.132
D) 0.022
The Poisson Distribution
 Poissondistribution is for counts—if
events happen at a constant rate over
time, the Poisson distribution gives
the probability of X number of events
occurring in time T.
 Poisson Mean and Variance

For a Poisson
 Mean  = random variable,
the variance and
mean are the
same!
◼ Variance and Standard
Deviation
 =
2

= 
where  = expected number of hits in a
given time period
Poisson Distribution, example
 The Poisson distribution models counts, such as the
number of new cases of SARS that occur in men in
New England next month.
 The distribution tells you the probability of all
possible numbers of new cases, from 0 to infinity.
 If X= # of new cases next month and X ~ Poisson (),
then the probability that X=k (a particular count) is:
k −
e
p( X = k ) =
k!
Example
 For example, if new cases of West Nile
Virus in New England are occurring at a
rate of about 2 per month, then these are
the probabilities that: 0,1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, to
1000 to 1 million to… cases will occur in
New England in the next month:
 Poisson Probability table
X P(X)

0 2 0 e −2 =.135
0!

1 2 1 e −2 =.27
k −
e
1!
2 2 e −2

p( X = k ) =
2 =.27
2!

3 2 3 e −2 =.18
k! 3!
4 2 4 e −2 =.09
4!
5

… …
Example: Poisson distribution
➢ Suppose that a rare disease has an incidence of 1 in 1000
person-years. Assuming that members of the population are
affected independently, find the probability of k cases in a
population of 10,000 (followed over 1 year) for k=0,1,2.
➢ The expected value (mean) = = .001*10,000 = 10
➢ 10 new cases expected in this population per year→

(10) 0 e − (10 )
P( X = 0) = = .0000454
0!
(10)1 e −(10 )
P( X = 1) = = .000454
1!
(10) 2 e −(10 )
P( X = 2) = = .00227
2!
more on Poisson…
“Poisson Process” (rates)
Note that the Poisson parameter  can be given as
the mean number of events that occur in a defined
time period OR, equivalently,  can be given as a
rate, such as =2/month (2 events per 1 month)
that must be multiplied by t=time (called a
“Poisson Process”) →
X ~ Poisson () k − t
( t ) e
P( X = k ) =
k!
E(X) = t
Var(X) = t
 Example
For example, if new cases of West Nile in
New England are occurring at a rate of
about 2 per month, then what’s the
probability that exactly 4 cases will occur in
the next 3 months?
X ~ Poisson (=2/month)
(2 * 3) 4 e − ( 2*3) 6 4 e − ( 6 )
P(X = 4 in 3 months) = = = 0.134 = 13.4%
4! 4!
Exactly 6 cases?
(2 * 3) 6 e − ( 2*3) 66 e − ( 6 )
P(X = 6 in 3 months) = = = 0.16 = 16%
6! 6!
Practice problems (1)
a. If calls to your cell phone are a Poisson
process with a constant rate =2 calls per hour,
what’s the probability that, if you forget to turn
your phone off in a 1.5 hour movie, your phone
rings during that time?

b. How many phone calls do you expect to get

during the movie?
 Solution
a. If calls to your cell phone are a Poisson process
with a constant rate =2 calls per hour, what’s the
probability that, if you forget to turn your phone off in
a 1.5 hour movie, your phone rings during that time?
X ~ Poisson (=2 calls/hour)
P(X≥1)=1 – P(X=0)
(2 * 1.5) 0 e −2 (1.5) (3) 0 e −3
P( X = 0) = = e −3 = .05
0! 0!
P(X≥1)=1 – .05 = 0.95 = 95%
b. How many phone calls do you expect to get during the movie?
E(X) = t = 2(1.5) = 3
Practice problems (2)

k e − 
Solution p( X = k ) =
k!
Solution
k e − 
p( X = k ) =
k!
 Practice problems (3)

Solution p( X = k ) =
k e − 
k!
 Practice problems (4)

Solution p( X = k ) =
k e − 
k!