PROBABILTITY I&II

PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY: NOTATION
PROBABILITY: TERMS
PROBABILITY: TERMS
PROBABILITY: EVENTS
PROBABILITY: EVENTS
PROBABILITY: LAWS OF PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY: LAWS OF PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY: LAWS OF PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY: BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
FUNCTION
PROBABILITY: SELECTION
TREE DIAGRAM: (WITH REPLACEMENT)
2
A 5

2
5 3
A B
5

2
A 5
B 3
5
B 3
5
TREE DIAGRAM: (WITHOUT REPLACEMENT)
3
A 6

4
7 3
A B
6

4
A
B 6
3
7
B 2
6
PROBABILITY: THE FACTOTIAL
PROBABILITY: COMBINATION
PROBABILITY: APPLICATIONS
PROBABILITY: TOSSING OF A FAIR COIN
PROBABILITY: APPLICATIONS

HH HT TH TT
HH HHHH HHHT HHTH HHTT
HT HTHH HTHT HTTH HTTT
TH THHH THHT THTH THTT
TT TTHT TTHT TTTH TTTT
Total number of outcomes = 16

15
P(obtaining at least one head) =
16
Four fair coins are tossed, what is the probability of getting at least 2 tails?

SOLUTION
When a fair coin is tossed twice, the possible outcomes are {HH, HT, TH, TT}

When a fair coin is tossed four times the possible outcome is shown in the table
below.
HH HT TH TT
HH HHHH HHHT HHTH HHTT
HT HTHH HTHT HTTH HTTT
TH THHH THHT THTH THTT
TT TTHH TTHT TTTH TTTT

Total number of outcomes = 16 Number of outcomes with at least two tails =11
11
P(obtaining at least two tails) =
16
A fair coin is tossed three times. Find the probability of obtaining two heads.

SOLUTION
When a fair coin is tossed three times the possible outcome is shown in the table
below.

HH HT TH TT
H HHH HHT HTH HTT
T THH THT TTH TTT

Total number of outcomes = 8

Number of outcomes with two heads = 3
3
P(obtaining two heads) =
8
Four fair coins are tossed once. Find the probability of getting equal number of
heads and tails.
SOLUTION
When a fair coin is tossed twice, the possible outcomes are {HH, HT, TH, TT}
When a fair coin is tossed four times the possible outcome is shown in the table
below.
HH HT TH TT
HH HHHH HHHT HHTH HHTT
HT HTHH HTHT HTTH HTTT
TH THHH THHT THTH THTT
TT TTHH TTHT TTTH TTTT

Total number of outcomes = 16

Number of outcomes with equal number of heads and tails = 6
6 3
P(equal number of heads and tails) = =
16 8
What is the probability of picking a letter T from the word INSTITUTION.
SOLUTION
The word INSTITUTION has 11 letters including 3T’s
P(picking T from INSTITUTION)

3
= 0.27
11
PROBABILITY: USING BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
FUNCTION

Independence:
Common Scenarios:
1. Flipping a coin a fixed number of times and counting the number of heads (successes).
.
2. Rolling a die multiple times and counting how many times you get a 6 (success).
3. Testing a new drug on a group of patients where each patient either shows improvement
(success) or doesn't (failure).

𝐵 𝑋 = 𝑟 = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 𝑝 𝑟 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑟
where;
B = Binomial distribution
r = total number of success
p = probability of succcess on a trial
n = number of trials
Example
The probability of getting. exactly 3 heads when flipping a coin 5
times. The probability of exactly 2 defective items out of 10 tested, if
the probability of a defect is known.

Use the binomial distribution in situations where these conditions are

met, and you're interested in the probability of a certain number of
successes in a fixed number of trials.
PROBABILITY: EXAMPLES
 SOLUTION
1
P(a six in a single throw) = 𝑝 =
6
5
P(not a six in a single throw) = (1 − 𝑝) =
6
Number of trials, n = 5
𝐵 𝑋 = 𝑟 = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 𝑝 𝑟 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑟

i) P(at least 3 sixes)

𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑟 = 3 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑟 = 4 + 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑟 = 5)
3 2 4 1 5 0
1 5 1 5 1 5
5𝐶3 + 5𝐶4 + 5𝐶5
6 6 6 6 6 6
250 25 1
= + +
7776 7776 7776
276
= = 0.036
7776
ii) P(exactly 2 sixes)
𝑃 𝑋=𝑟=2

2 3
1 5
5𝐶2
6 6

1250
= = 0.161
7776
2. Two out of every 3 teachers in a secondary school are females. If 5
teachers are chosen at random from the school, what is the probability that
i) Exactly 3 are females
ii) At least 4 are females.
SOLUTION
2
P(a female) = 𝑝 =
3

2 1
P(a male) = 1 − 𝑝 = 1 − =
3 3

Number of trials, n = 5
𝐵 𝑋 = 𝑟 = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 𝑝 𝑟 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑟
i) P(exactly 3 females) = P(X = r =3)

3 2
2 1
5𝐶3
3 3

80
= = 0.3292
243
ii) P(at least 4 are females) = 𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑟 = 4 + 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑟 = 5)

4 1 5 0
2 1 2 1
5𝐶4 + 5𝐶5
3 3 3 3

80 32
= +
243 243
112
= = 0.4609
243
3. In a community, 10% of the people tested positive for COVID-19. If
6 persons from the community are selected at random, calculate, and
correct to four decimal places the probability that
a). exactly 5,
b). none,
c). at most 2,
tested positive for the virus.