CE431 TOPIC 5.1 - Forecasting Travel

FORECASTING
TRAVEL
URBAN TRANSPORTATION FORECASTING PROCESS
1. Data Collection (or inventories)
2. Analysis of existing conditions and calibration of

forecasting techniques
3. Forecast of future travel demand
4. Analysis of Results
DEFINING THE STUDY AREA
It is necessary to delineate the

study area boundaries and to
further subdivide the area into
traffic analysis zones (TAZ) for
data tabulation.
DEFINING THE STUDY AREA
The selection of these zones is based on the following criteria:
1. Socioeconomic characteristics should be homogeneous.

2. Intrazonal trips should be minimized.
3. Physical, political, and historical boundaries should be utilized where possible.
4. Zones should not be created within other zones
5. The zone system should generate and attract approximately equal trips,
households, population, or area. For example, labor force and employment
should be similar.
6. Zones should use census tract boundaries where possible.
7. The total number of zones should not be so large as to overwhelm computer
resource
DATA COLLECTION
The data collection phase provides information about the city and its people
that will serve as the basis for developing travel demand estimates
The data includes information about

economic activity (employment, sales volume, income, etc.)
land use (type, intensity)
travel characteristics (trip and traveler profile)
transportation facilities (capacity, travel speed, etc)
surveys and previously collected data
POPULATION AND ECONOMIC DATA
Once a zone system for the study area is established,

population and socioeconomic forecasts prepared at a
regional or statewide level are used. These are allocated
to the study area, and the totals are distributed to each
zone.
This process can be accomplished by using either a ratio

technique or small-area land-use allocation models.
The population and economic data will usually be

furnished by the agencies responsible for planning and
economic development, whereas providing travel and
transportation data is the responsibility of the traffic
engineer.
TRANSPORTATION INVENTORIES
Transportation inventories involve a description of the following:
existing transportation services

available facilities and their condition
location of routes and schedules
maintenance and operating costs
system capacity and existing traffic
volumes, speed, delay
property and equipment
The types of data collected about the current system will depend on the specifics of the
problem.
A computerized network of the existing street
and highway system is produced. The network
consists of a series of links, nodes, and
centroids.
Links - portion of a highway system

described by its capacity, lane width, and
speed
Node - the start/endpoints of a link;
represents an intersection or location
where a link changes direction, capacity,
width or speed.
Centroid - location within a zone where
trips are considered to begin and end
External Stations
Established at the study area boundary

External stations are those roadways
where traffic is likely to enter or exit the
study area, such as primary and
interstate facilities
Are used to account for the impact of
changes outside the study area on the
travel network within the study area
Transportation facility inventories
The transportation facility inventories provide the basis for establishing the networks that will
be studied to determine present and future traffic flows. Data needs can include the following
items:
Public streets and highways
rights of way
roadway and shoulder widths
locations of curbed sections
locations of structures such as bridges, overpasses, underpasses, and major culverts
Overhead structure clearances
Railroad crossings
Location of critical curves or grades
Identification of routes by governmental unit having maintenance jurisdiction
functional classification
street lighting
The transportation facility inventories provide the basis for establishing the networks that will be
studied to determine present and future traffic flows. Data needs can include the following items:
Land use and zoning controls

Traffic generators
schools
parks
stadiums
shopping centers
office complexes
Laws, ordinances, and regulations
Traffic control devices
traffic signs
signals
pavement markings
The transportation facility inventories provide the basis for establishing the networks that will be
studied to determine present and future traffic flows. Data needs can include the following items:
Transit system
Routes by street
Locations and lengths of stops and bus layover spaces
Location of off-street terminals
Change of mode facilities
Parking facilities
Traffic volumes
Travel times
Intersection and roadway capacities
In many instances, the data will already have been collected and are available in the files of
the city, county, or state offices. In other instances, some data may be more essential than
others. A careful evaluation of the data needs should be undertaken prior to the study,
INFORMATION SYSTEMS
A GIS is a spatially-oriented database management
processing system containing location and attribute
information for manmade and natural features and
supporting related queries with these features.
There are three reasons that explain the popularity of

GIS for transportation planning.
GIS is scalelable. e.g. microscopic level of a single

neighborhood, macroscopic level of a state or region.
GIS contains information used by other professions.
GIS offers strong spatial analytic capabilities
TRAVEL SURVEYS
Travel surveys are conducted to establish a complete understanding of the travel
patterns within the study area.
O-D Surveys (Origin-Destination Surveys)

Used to understand why people travel and where they wish to go to
Asks questions about each trip that is made on a specific day
where the trip begins and ends
purpose of the trip
time of day
vehicle involved
about the person making the trip (age, sex, income, vehicle owner)
TRAVEL SURVEYS
O-D Surveys may be completed as:

a home interview
people may be asked questions while commuting
people will be stopped at a roadside interview station.
information requested by telephone or postcard
O-D surveys are rarely completed in communities where data has previously been
connected.
O-D data are compared with other sources to ensure the accuracy and consistency of
the results.
e.g. comparison between number of dwelling units vs trips per dwelling unit,
screenline checks to compare number of trips defined across a boundary vs actual
report
TRAVEL SURVEYS
O-D checking procedure, a set of trip tables is prepared that shows the number of trips
between each zone in the study area.
CALIBRATION
Calibration is concerned with establishing

mathematical relationships that can be used
to estimate future travel demand.
Travel forecasts are made by applying the

relationships developed in the calibration
process. Formulas rely upon estimate of future
land use, socioeconomic characteristics, and
transportation conditions
CALIBRATION
CALIBRATION
STEPS IN THE TRAVEL FORECASTING PROCESS
Step 1: Population and Economic Analysis
Step 2: Land Use Analysis
Step 3. Trip Generation
Step 4. Trip Distribution
Step 5. Modal split
Step 6. Traffic Assignment

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FORECASTING

1. Data Collection (or inventories)

2. Analysis of existing conditions and calibration of

3. Forecast of future travel demand

It is necessary to delineate the

The selection of these zones is based on the following criteria:

1. Socioeconomic characteristics should be homogeneous.

The data includes information about

Once a zone system for the study area is established,

This process can be accomplished by using either a ratio

The population and economic data will usually be

Transportation inventories involve a description of the following:

existing transportation services

Links - portion of a highway system

Established at the study area boundary

Land use and zoning controls

There are three reasons that explain the popularity of

GIS is scalelable. e.g. microscopic level of a single

O-D Surveys (Origin-Destination Surveys)

O-D Surveys may be completed as:

Calibration is concerned with establishing

Travel forecasts are made by applying the

Step 1: Population and Economic Analysis

Step 2: Land Use Analysis

Step 3. Trip Generation

Step 4. Trip Distribution

Step 5. Modal split

Step 6. Traffic Assignment

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