Poisson Distribution

Dr A R M Harunur Rashid
• Introduced by Simeon Poisson in 1837
• It could be identified by situations that involve
observations per unit time, that is, some sort of
rate per unit time. For example, customer arriving
per hour, machine breakdown per two days etc.
• Occurrence of a particular
outcome(i.e.success,nonconformity,breakdown
etc) in poisson distribution has equal opportunity.
• Here as well each outcome may be grouped into
two: success or non success, conformity or
nonconformity, yes or no, pass or fail.
Poisson probability distribution describes the number of times some event oc-
curs during a specified interval. The interval may be time, distance, area, or volume.
The distribution is based on two assumptions. The first assumption is that the
probability is proportional to the length of the interval. The second assumption is that
the intervals are independent. To put it another way, the longer the interval the larger
the probability, and the number of occurrences in one interval does not affect the other
intervals. This distribution is also a limiting form of the binomial distribution when the
probability of a success is very small and n is large. It is often referred to as the "law
of improbable events," meaning that the probability of a particular event's happen-
ing is quite small. The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution be-
cause it is formed by counting.
In summary, a Poisson probability distribution has these characteristics:
POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
1. The random variable is the number of times some event occurs during a
defined interval.
2. The probability of the event is proportional to the size of the interval.
3. The intervals which do not overlap are independent.
 Applications of Poisson probability
distribution
This distribution has many applications. It is used as a model to describe the distri-
bution of errors in data entry, the number of scratches and other imperfections in
newly painted car panels, the number of defective parts in outgoing shipments, the
number of customers waiting to be served at a restaurant or waiting to get into an at-
traction at Disney World, etc.
The variance of the Poisson is also equal to its mean.
If, for example, the probability
that a check cashed by a bank will bounce is .0003, and 10,000 checks are cashed,
the mean and the variance for the number of bad checks is 3.0, found by J.L = n1f =
10,000(.0003) = 3.0.

For a binomial distribution there is a fixed number of trials. For exam-

ple, for a four-question multiple-choice test there can only be zero, one, two, three, or
four successes (correct answers). The random variable, x, for a Poisson distribution,
however, can assume an infinite number of values-that is, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, .... How-
ever, the probabilities become very small after the first few occurrences (successes).
 Formula and properties of Poisson
distribution
• c is the value asked in the question or you are trying to
find out. It is like x value(i.e. success) in
hypergeometric distribution.
• npo is the average value per unit time given in the
question.
• Mean equals to npo and the standard deviation equals
to sqrt(npo)
• Usually poisson probabilty distribution is skewed(i.e.
right skewed that is tail on the right side)
• As npo gets larger, the poisson distribution aprroaches
symmetry, that is , towards normal distribution.
 Formula in another format
• Here the value asked in the question is x
• Poisson Formula
• Suppose we conduct a Poisson experiment, in which the
average number of successes within a given region is
μ=np0. It is also called mean number of successes (μ=np0)
Then, the Poisson probability is:

P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!

• Where, x is the actual number of successes that result from

the experiment, and e is approximately equal to 2.71828.
Here, n = sample size & po = proportion success(in decimal
value)
 Poisson properties in detail
A Poisson experiment is a statistical experiment that has the following properties:
The experiment results in outcomes that can be classified as successes or
failures.
The average number of successes (μ=np0) that occurs in a specified region is
known.
The probability that a success will occur is proportional to the size of the
region.
The probability that a success will occur in an extremely small region is
virtually zero.

Note that the specified region could take many forms. For instance, it could be a
length, an area, a volume, a period of time, etc.

Poisson distribution
A Poisson random variable is the number of successes that result from a Poisson
experiment. The probability distribution of a Poisson random variable is called a
Poisson distribution.
The Poisson distribution has the following
properties:
The mean of the poisson distribution is
equal to μ = np0
Standard Deviation of poisson distribution
=square root(np0)
The variance is also equal to μ = np0;
• In the parentheses cumulative probabilities
for obtaining ‘or less’ are given.
• P(y or less)= value given in parentheses for y
• P(y or more)= 1 – P(y or less)
 Example
The average number of homes sold by the Acme Properties
company is 2 homes per day. What is the probability that exactly 3
homes will be sold tomorrow?
Solution:
This is a Poisson experiment in which we know the following:
μ = 2; since 2 homes are sold per day, on average.
x = 3; since we want to find the likelihood that 3 homes will be sold tomorrow.
e = 2.71828; since e is a constant equal to approximately 2.71828.

We plug these values into the Poisson formula as follows:

P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!

P(3; 2) = (2.71828-2) (23) / 3!
= (0.13534) (8) / 6
= 0.180

Thus, the probability of selling 3 homes tomorrow is 0.180 , that is

18%
 Poisson as an approximation for the
binomial
• In such problems, average rate per unit time
may not be given. Instead probability of
success(i.e.may be nonconformity),po, may be
given with total no of items in that situation(n)
• From the data given, we could find np0 that is
equivalent to mu(i.e. μ = np0 )
 Exr 37
• A random sample of 10 auotmotive bumpers
is taken from a stream of product that is 5%
non conforming. Using the poisson as an
approximation of the binomial distribution,
determine the probability of 2 non conforming
bumpers.
 HOMEWORK poisson FROM Walpole
• SEC ME>> 5.56,5.57,5.58,5.73
• SEC IPE>> 5.66,5.67,5.71,5.72
• 5.56 On average, 3 traffic accidents per month occur
at a certain intersection. What is the probability that
in any given month at this intersection
(a) exactly 5 accidents will occur?
(b) fewer than 3 accidents will occur?
(c) at least 2 accidents will occur?
5.57 On average, a textbook author makes two wordprocessing errors per
page on the first draft of her textbook. What is the probability that on the
next page
she will make
(a) 4 or more errors?
(b) no errors?
5.58 A certain area of the eastern United States is,
on average, hit by 6 hurricanes a year. Find the probability that in a given
year that area will be hit by
(a) fewer than 4 hurricanes;
(b) anywhere from 6 to 8 hurricanes
• 5.66 Changes in airport procedures require considerable planning. Arrival rates of
aircraft are important factors that must be taken into account. Suppose
small aircraft arrive at a certain airport, according to
a Poisson process, at the rate of 6 per hour. Thus, the
Poisson parameter for arrivals over a period of hours is
μ = 6t.
(a) What is the probability that exactly 4 small aircraft arrive during a 1-hour
period?
(b) What is the probability that at least 4 arrive during
a 1-hour period?
(c) If we define a working day as 12 hours, what is
the probability that at least 75 small aircraft arrive during a working day?
5.67 The number of customers arriving per hour at a
certain automobile service facility is assumed to follow
a Poisson distribution with mean λ = 7.
(a) Compute the probability that more than 10 customers will arrive in a 2-hour
period.
(b) What is the mean number of arrivals during a
2-hour period?
• 5.71 For a certain type of copper wire, it is known
that, on the average, 1.5 flaws occur per millimeter.
Assuming that the number of flaws is a Poisson random
variable, what is the probability that no flaws occur in
a certain portion of wire of length 5 millimeters? What
is the mean number of flaws in a portion of length 5
millimeters?
5.72 Potholes on a highway can be a serious problem,
and are in constant need of repair. With a particular
type of terrain and make of concrete, past experience
suggests that there are, on the average, 2 potholes per
mile after a certain amount of usage. It is assumed
that the Poisson process applies to the random variable “number of potholes.”
(a) What is the probability that no more than one pothole will appear in a section of 1 mile?
(b) What is the probability that no more than 4 potholes will occur in a given section of 5 miles?

• 5.73 Hospital administrators in large cities anguish

about traffic in emergency rooms. At a particular hospital in a large city, the staff on hand cannot accom
modate the patient traffic if there are more than 10
emergency cases in a given hour. It is assumed that
patient arrival follows a Poisson process, and historical
data suggest that, on the average, 5 emergencies arrive
per hour.
(a) What is the probability that in a given hour the
staff cannot accommodate the patient traffic?
(b) What is the probability that more than 20 emergencies arrive during a 3-hour shift
 Shape
• The basic shape of a Poisson distribution changes.
• For example, a Poisson distribution with a low mean is highly
skewed, with 0 as the mode. All the data are “pushed” up against 0,
with a tail extending to the right. You can see an example in the
upper left quadrant above.
• But if the mean is larger, the distribution spreads out and becomes
more symmetric. In fact, with a mean as high as 12, the distribution
looks downright normal.
• A Poisson distribution with a high enough mean approximates a
normal distribution, even though technically, it is not.
• One difference is that in the Poisson distribution the variance = the
mean. In a normal distribution, these are two separate parameters.
The value of one tells you nothing about the other.