same vinification costs

Price Quantity
Storm 0.50 Light-mold 0.40 8 70% 2.24
Light-Diluted 0.60 2 100%
Heavy

No Storm 0.50 Ripen fully 0.40 3.5 100%

Less favourable weather 0.40 3 100%
Low acid wine 0.20 2.5 100%

Immediately-bottling 2.85 100% 12000

Selling substandard 1.425 100%
fication costs

8400 67200 26880

24000 14400
41280
37200
16,800.00
14,400.00
6,000.00

bottles 34200
17100
Payoff Table
Market
Action Good Average Poor Average Minimum Maximum
Expand 76,000 30,000 -17,000 29,667 -17,000 76,000
Move to larger facility 90,000 41,000 -28,000 34,333 -28,000 90,000
No change 40,000 15,000 4,000 19,667 4,000 40,000

a maximax Move to larger facility

Market
Action Good Average Poor Maximum Decision
Expand 76,000 30,000 -17,000 76,000
Move to larger facility 90,000 41,000 -28,000 90,000 SELECT
No change 40,000 15,000 4,000 40,000

b maximin No change

Market
Action Good Average Poor Minimum Decision
Expand 76,000 30,000 -17,000 -17,000
Move to larger facility 90,000 41,000 -28,000 -28,000
No change 40,000 15,000 4,000 4,000 SELECT

c eq Move to larger facility

d a=.4 Expand
Action Good Average Poor
Expand 76,000 30,000 -17,000 20,200
Move to larger facility 90,000 41,000 -28,000 19,200
No change 40,000 15,000 4,000 18,400

e minimax regret Expand

Action Good Average Poor

Expand 14,000 11,000 21,000 21,000
Move to larger facility - - 32,000 32,000
No change 50,000 26,000 - 50,000
a Production costs Profits
Normal Over Normal Over
5 7 5 3

Market Demand
Initial Supply 50 100 150 EMV
50 250 400 550 355 250
100 0 500 650 315 500
150 -250 250 750 100 750

250 500 750 425

b Probability 0.4 0.5 0.1
EMV Decision is produce 50 units

EOL
Max 250 500 750
Market Demand
Initial Supply 50 100 150 EOL
50 0 100 200 70 SELECT
100 250 0 100 110
150 500 250 0 325
70

2 months 7% 1000
I month 500
Probability-1 month
2 months market rate 0 0.50% 0.3
I month

0% 0.5

-0.50% 0.2

EVPI Profits with PI 250 500 750

Probability 0.4 0.5 0.1

PI 425
EMV 355 `
Extra 70
Consultant Fees 100 Excess
Probability-2 month
up 0.5
remain 0.25
down 0.25

up 0.25
remain 0.25
down 0.5

up 0.25
remain 0.25
down 0.5
Reciprocal costing Constraints
Equation Changing Solve equation
M-(6/67)*P 350000 M 368639.4 350000 When solving this, set constraint as the other
P-(1000/13100)*M 180000 P 208140.4 180000

s
constraint as the other equation (F4=C4)
 Ext Int
X1 X2
Ex Int Max daily Prod Quantity 3 1.5
M1 6 4 24 Unit Profit 5000 4000
M2 1 2 6
Profit 5 4 Constraints
Raw material M1 6 4
Demand 2 2 Raw material M2 1 2
1 2 Demand 0 1
Interior Time -1 1
 Total Profit

21000

LHS Inequality RHS

24 <= 24
6 <= 6
1.5 <= 2
-1.5 <= 1
 Construction workers Window Washers
No of safety devices 40 80
Uit revenue 60 40
300 225
18000 9000
Total Revenue 5600

Constraints
x1 x2 LHS
Test 1 3 4 440 <=
Test 2 1 2 200 <=
Test 3 2 1 160 <=
RHS
900
200
160
Decision variables a b c

Objective function-maximise Profits

8.25 7.5 7.8

Constraints Station 1 Station 2

a 2.5 3
b 1.8 1.6
c 2 2.2
Total 2250 2250

a,b,c >= 20
a,b,c >= 0

Constraints
a b c LHS RHS
Station 1 2.5 1.8 2 2250 <= 2250
Station 2 3 1.6 2.2 2024 <= 2250

Solution
a b c
No of units 20 1200 20
Profit per unit 8.25 7.5 7.8
Profit 9321
Decision variables x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6

Objective function-minimise No of units 0 0 0 1.666667 0 0.304348

Price 0.8 3.7 2.3 0.9 0.75 0.4
Total cost 2.866739

Constraints x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6
calories 520 500 860 600 50 460
calories 520 500 860 600 50 460
Iron 4.4 3.3 0.3 3.4 0.5 2.2
Protein 17 85 82 10 6 10
Carb 0 0 0 30 0 70
Fat 30 5 75 3 0 0
Fat 30 5 75 3 0 0
Cholest 180 90 350 0 0 0

b if all except milk units <= 0.5 No solution

x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6

No of units 0 0 0 0 0 0
Price 0.8 3.7 2.3 0.9 0.75 0.4
Total cost 0
x7

1.5
0.83

x7 LHS RHS
240 1500 >= 1500
240 1500 <= 2000
0.2 6.636232 >= 5
16 43.71014 >= 30
22 104.3043 >= 40
10 20 >= 20
10 20 <= 60
20 30 <= 30

x7

0
0.83
Decision variables-amount invested x1 x2 x3 x4

Objective function-maximise AR x1 x2 x3 x4
Amount invested 32400000 16200000 24300000 100000
AR 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.09
Total AR 7,082,000.00

Constraints x1 x2 x3 x4
Amount invested 32400000 16200000 24300000 100000
RF
HI
Mortgage 32400000 16200000
1st and 2nd 32400000 16200000
HI
Auto+HI 100000
CL 24300000
x5 x6

x5 x6 Total
8000000 9000000 90000000
0.1 0.04

x5 x6 LHS RHS
8000000 9000000 90000000 <= 90000000
9000000 9000000 >= 9000000
8000000 8000000 <= 8000000
48600000 >= 48600000
0 >= 0
8000000 8000000 <= 12960000
8000000 8100000 <= 24300000
24300000 <= 24300000