Empirical Probability, Independent Event and Odds

Empirical Probability

Empirical Probability of an event is an "estimate" that the event will happen based on how often
the event occurs after collecting data or running an experiment (in a large number of trials). It is
based specifically on direct observations or experiences.

Number of times event 𝐸 occurs

𝑃(𝐸) =
Total no. of observed occurences

P(E) = probability that an event, E, will occur.

top = number of ways the specific event occurs.
bottom = number of ways the experiment could occur.

Comparing Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities:

Karen and Jason roll two dice 50 times and record their results in the accompanying chart.
1.) What is their empirical probability of rolling a 7?
2.) What is the theoretical probability of rolling a 7?
3.) How do the empirical and theoretical probabilities compare?

Sum of the rolls of two dice

3, 5, 5, 4, 6, 7, 7, 5, 9, 10,
12, 9, 6, 5, 7, 8, 7, 4, 11, 6,
8, 8, 10, 6, 7, 4, 4, 5, 7, 9,
9, 7, 8, 11, 6, 5, 4, 7, 7, 4,
3, 6, 7, 7, 7, 8, 6, 7, 8, 9

=50

Solution:
1.) Empirical probability (experimental probability or observed probability) is 13/50 = 26%.
2.) Theoretical probability (based upon what is possible when working with two dice) = 6/36 =
1/6 = 16.7% (check out the table at the right of possible sums when rolling two dice).
3.) Karen and Jason rolled more 7's than would be expected theoretically.

Additive property of probability:

For mutually exclusive events A and B, if we define probability of event A as 𝑃(𝐴) and
probability of event B as 𝑃(𝐵) then

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)

But for mutually joint events A and B

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Example 1: City residents were surveyed recently to determine readership of newspaper available.
50% of the residents read the morning paper, 60% read evening newspaper and 20% reads both
the papers. Find the probability that a resident selected reads either morning or evening or both the
newspapers.

Solution:

Let A and B represents the events that the resident read morning and evening newspaper
respectively.

Then

50
𝑃(𝐴) = 50% = = 0.5
100
60
𝑃(𝐵) = 60% = = 0.6
100
20
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 20% = = 0.2
100
The probability that a resident selected reads either morning or evening or both the newspapers is
given by

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

= 0.5 + 0.6 − 0.2

= 0.9 (Answer)
 2
Example 2: The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is 3 and the probability
5
that he will not get an electric contract is 9. If the probability of getting at least one contract is
4
, what is the probability that he will get both?
5

Solution:

Let A and B represents the events that the contractor will get a plumbing and electric contract
respectively.

Therefore

2
𝑃(𝐴) =
3
5 4
𝑃(𝐵) = 1 − =
9 9
4
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) =
5
Hence

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

2 4 4 14
= + − = = 0.31
3 9 5 45
The probability that the contractor will get both the contract is given by 0.31. (Answer)

Try yourself:
4
1. The probability that an electrician will get air condition setting contract is and the
9
1
probability that he will not get an electric contract is 3. If the probability of getting at least one
4
contract is 5, what is the probability that he will get both?

Ans: 0.31

Example 3:
In a community, 36% of the families own a dog and 22% of the families own both a dog and a cat.
If a randomly selected family owns a dog, what is the probability that it owns a cat too.

Solution:

Let us define events of interest as follows:

𝐷: Family owns a dog

𝐶: Family owns a cat

Then

𝑃(𝐷) = 0.36, 𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐶) = 0.22

Since being owner of a dog and owner of cat are independent

𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐷)𝑃(𝐶) = 0.22

Hence

0.22 0.22
𝑃(𝐶) = = = 0.61
𝑃(𝐷) 0.36

Example 4:

If a political candidate has only 35% chance of winning an election, what are the odds against
winning the election for the candidate?

Solution:

If 𝐴 stands for the event ‘winning the election’

𝑃(𝐴) = 0.35 and 𝑃(𝐴̅) = 0.65

Hence the odds against winning the election for the candidate is

𝑃(𝐴̅) 0.65 13
𝑂𝐴̅ = = =
𝑃(𝐴) 0.35 7
13
This means that the candidate is ( 7 − 1) × 100 = 85.7% more likely to loose the election than
winning.

Example 5:
A class is made up of 20 girls and 15 boys. It is decided to distribute 4 complimentary tickets by
lottery to 4 students of the class. What is the probability that (a) the tickets go to 4 girls, (b) the
tickets go to 2 boys and 2 girls?

Solution:

(a) Since there are 20 girls in the class, 4 girls can be chosen to distribute 4 tickets among them in
20
C4 ways. The probability of such an event is
20
C4 20  19  18  17 57
𝑃(4 tickets to 4 girls) = = =
35
C4 35  34  33  32 616

(b) 4 tickets can go to 2 boys and 2 girls in

20
C2  15 C2 ways. The probability of such an event
is
20
C2  15 C2 190  105 285
P= 35
= =
C4 52360 748

Example 6:
There are 5 people in a room. What is the probability that at least two of them will have the same
birthday?
Solution:
To solve the problem, we must assume that no twin are present. Also we shall deal with 365-day
year. Since there are 365 possible birthdays for each of the 5 people, the sample space will contain
3655 outcomes, each with probability 1⁄3655 .

Let 𝐴 be an event describing that ‘no two people have the same birthday’. If 𝐵 stands for the event
that ‘at least two people have the same birthday’, then 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) = 1. Hence 𝑃(𝐵) = 1 −
𝑃(𝐴).

To evaluate 𝑃(𝐴), we note that the birthday of a first person has 365 possible values, the birthday
of a second person has 364 possible values,… the birthday of a fifth person has 361 possible values.
Therefore by multiplication rule, the number of possible sets of 5 birthdays, with no two birthdays
alike is 365 × 364 × 363 × 362 × 361. Hence
 365 × 364 × 363 × 362 × 361
𝑃(𝐴) = = 0.973
3655
𝑃(𝐵) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.027