Chapter 1

Basic Simulation Modeling

Topics
Exercises
Basic Simulation Modeling : Topics
The Nature of Simulation

1.1) The Nature of Simulation Systems, Models, and Simulation

1.2) Systems, Models, and SimulationSteps in a Simulation Study

1.3) Steps in a Simulation Study Advantages, Disadvantages, and Pitfalls of Simulation

1.4) Advantages, Disadvantages, and Pitfalls of

Advantages, Disadvantages, and Pitfalls of Simulation

Simulation
Basic Simulation Modeling

1.1) The Nature of Simulation

1.1) The Nature of Simulation

▪ Simulation: Imitation of the operations of a facility or

process, usually via computer

– What’s being simulated is the system

– To study system, often make assumptions/approximations,
both logical and mathematical, about how it works
– These assumptions form a model of the system
– If model structure is simple enough, could use
mathematical methods to get exact information on
questions of interest — analytical solution
1.1) The Nature of Simulation(cont’d.)
• But most complex systems require models that are also
complex (to be valid)
– Must be studied via simulation — evaluate model
numerically and collect data to estimate model
characteristics
• Example: Manufacturing company considering extending
its plant
– Build it and see if it works out?
– Simulate current, expanded operations — could also
investigate many other issues along the way, quickly and
cheaply
1.1) The Nature of Simulation(cont’d.)
• Some (not all) application areas

▪ Design and analysis of manufacturing systems

→ operation of production line.
→ capacity management

▪ Designing and operating transportation systems

→ Railroad system performance.
→ Air traffic control

▪ Evaluating designs for service organizations

→ call centers, fast-food restaurants, hospitals, and post
offices.

▪ Evaluating military weapons systems or their logistics

requirements
1.1) The Nature of Simulation(cont’d.)

▪ Computer and communication systems

→ performance evaluation.
→ reliability assessment
→ Determining hardware requirements

▪ Analyzing financial or economic systems

→ cash flow analysis.
→ risk assessment

▪ Health care systems

→ manpower planning
→Operating room scheduling.

▪ Environmental and ecological studies

→ flood control
→ pollution control.
1.1) The Nature of Simulation(cont’d.)

Design: stress analysis Manufacturing analysis Mechanical assembly

Computer communication Transportation systems Wargaming: test strategies;

network training
1.1) The Nature of Simulation(cont’d.)
• Impediments to acceptance, use of simulation
– Models of large systems are usually very complex
▪ But now have better modeling software … more general, flexible,
but still (relatively) easy to use
– Can consume a lot of computer time
▪ But now have faster, bigger, cheaper hardware to allow for much
better studies than just a few years ago … this trend will continue
▪ However, simulation will also continue to push the envelope on
computing power in that we ask more and more of our simulation
models
– Impression that simulation is “just programming”
▪ There’s a lot more to a simulation study than just “coding” a model
in some software and running it to get “the answer”
▪ Need careful design and analysis of simulation models – simulation
methodology
Basic Simulation Modeling

1.2) Systems, Models, and

Simulation
1.2) Systems, Models, and Simulation

What a system is ?

▪ System: A collection of entities (people, parts,

messages, machines, servers, …) that act and interact
together toward some end (Schmidt and Taylor, 1970)
– In practice, depends on objectives of study
– Might limit the boundaries (physical and
logical) of the system
– Level of detail
– Entity, attribute and activity
▪ Entity: object of interest in system
▪ Attribute: property of an entity
▪ Activity: Any process causing changes in system
 1.2) Systems, Models, and Simulation(cont’d.)
State and state variables
▪ State of a system :
arrival Collection of variables and
probability
process their values necessary to
describe the system at that
interarrival time
time
State
queue
– Might depend on desired
variable
queue length objectives, output performance
measures
processor processor
occupancy
– Bank model: Could include number
of busy tellers, time of arrival of
completion each customer, etc.
probability

process

interarrival time
 1.2) Systems, Models, and Simulation(cont’d.)
State and state variables
Systems can be simulated at a very
arrival
high level of abstraction
probability
process
interarrival time
▪ artificial workloads
▪ simplified work characteristics
queue
queue
length ▪ removal of most system details
processor processor ▪ focus on a particular component
occupancy

completion
probability

process

interarrival time
 1.2) Systems, Models, and Simulation(cont’d.)
State and state variables
Systems can be simulated with a large
arrival
amount of detail
probability
process
interarrival time
▪ replaying traces of real (measured
or logged) workloads
queue ▪ using components of real-world
queue length
systems
processor processor
occupancy ▪ with fine-grained monitoring in
controlled environments
completion
probability

process

interarrival time
1.2) Systems, Models, and Simulation(cont’d.)
▪ Event :
➢ A change in system
state
job arrival
job arrival ==
job enqueue ➢ Easily explained when
job enqueue state is discrete

job dequeue event == ➢ Examples:

processing start event
→ arrival of job
processing end event
processing end event == → beginning of new
job departure
job departure execution
→ departure of job
1.2) Systems, Models, and Simulation(cont’d.)

▪ System environment : Constituted by external

component interacting with system and producing
necessary changes
1.2) Systems, Models, and Simulation(cont’d.)
Examples

System Entities Attributes Activities Event State

variable
Bank
Hospital
Manufacturing
System
Inventory

Laundromat

Communicatio
ns network
1.2) Systems, Models, and Simulation(cont’d.)
Examples

System Entities Attributes Activities Event State

variable
Bank customers Checking Making deposit -Arr. of customer -N.of customer in
account -Dept. of queue
balance customer -N.of busy tellers

Hospital Patients Attention level Providing -Arrival of patient -N.of patient waiting
required service required -Departure of -N.of doctors
patient working
Manufacturing Machines, Speed, capacity, Welding, Breaking down Availability of
workers break-down manufacturing machines
System
Inventory warehouse capacity withdrawing Demand -level of inventory
-backlogged
demand
Laundromat Washing Breakdown rate Repairing a -Occurrence of N. Of machine
machine machine breakdowns running/ N. of
-Completion of machine in repair/
service N. of machine
waiting for repair
Communicatio messages Length transmitting Arrival at Number waiting to
destination destination be transmitted
ns network
1.2) Systems, Models, and Simulation(cont’d.)

Ways to study a system

analytical
system solution

experiment with mathematical

model of the model
system
Simulation

experiment with
actual system

physical model

19
 1.2) Systems, Models, and Simulation(cont’d.)

Classification of simulation models

System model

deterministic stochastic

static dynamic static dynamic

Monte Carlo
simulation
continuous discrete continuous discrete
Continuous Discrete-event Continuous Discrete-event
simulation simulation simulation simulation
 1.2) Systems, Models, and Simulation(cont’d.)

– Discrete state
▪ State variables change
instantaneously at separated

queue length
points in time
▪ Bank model: State changes
occur only when a customer time

arrives or departs

– Continuous state
limited but no countable
▪ State variables change
continuously as a function of

water level
time
▪ Airplane flight: State variables
like position, velocity change time

continuously
1.2) Systems, Models, and Simulation(cont’d.)
1.2) Systems, Models, and Simulation(cont’d.)

Classification of simulation models

▪ Static simulation model: represents a system at a

particular point in time.
▪ Dynamic simulation model: represents systems as
they change over time.
▪ Deterministic simulation model: contains no
random variables.
 Known set of inputs will result in a unique set of
outputs.
▪ Stochastic simulation model: random inputs ->
random outputs.
Outputs – estimates of the true characteristics of
the model.
1.2) Systems, Models, and Simulation(cont’d.)
Deterministic Model Stochastic Model

output

output
input
input

Most operational models are dynamic,

stochastic, and discrete – will be called discrete-
event simulation models
Basic Simulation Modeling

1.3) Steps in a Simulation Study

1.7) Steps in a Simulation Study
formulate problem and
plan the study

no
model valid
collect data and
define model
yes

no
assumptions design experiments
still valid

yes
make production runs
construct a computer
program & verify
analyze output data
test runs

present results
Basic Simulation Modeling

1.4) Advantages,
Disadvantages, and Pitfalls of
Simulation
1.9) Advantages, Disadvantages, and Pitfalls

Advantages
• Simulation allows great flexibility in modeling complex systems, so simulation
models can be highly valid
• Easy to compare alternatives
• Control experimental conditions
• ‘’What if ’’ questions can be answered,

Disadvantages
• Stochastic simulations produce only estimates – with noise
• Simulation models can be expensive to develop
• Simulations usually produce large volumes of output – need to summarize,
statistically analyze appropriately

Pitfalls
• Failure to identify objectives clearly up front
• Inappropriate level of detail (both ways)
• Inadequate design and analysis of simulation experiments
• Inadequate education, training