Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Wetland Maize

Production and Food Security in Highlands and Central Plateaus of Rwanda

Case Study of Bahimba and Bishenyi Wetlands

Anatole UWIRAGIYE

College of Arts and Social Sciences (CASS)

School of Social, Political and Administrative Sciences

Master of Arts in Development Studies

Huye, June 2016

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Wetland Maize
Production and Food Security in Highlands and Central Plateaus of Rwanda
Case Study of Bahimba and Bishenyi Wetlands

By
Anatole Uwiragiye
214003508

A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of

Master of Arts in Development Studies

In the College of Arts and Social Sciences (CASS)

Supervisor: Dr. Gaspard Rwanyiziri

Huye, June 2016

 i

Declaration

I declare that this Dissertation contains my own work and has never been submitted to any
University or any other academic institution for an award of a degree in any field.

Anatole UWIRAGIYE

Date:

Signature
 ii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I am extremely thankful to the Almighty God for his plentiful grace and protection during the whole
course of my academic study.

My special thanks go to my supervisor, Dr. Gaspard Rwanyiziri, for the excellent and tireless
technical support and guidance since the start up to the completion of my thesis.

I am equally grateful to all Lecturers of MA in Development Studies and maize farmers from
Bahimba and Bishenyi wetlands for their great support enabled me to successfully accomplish this
project.

Likewise, I am greatly thankful to my beloved wife, Sauda Mukamana, for her strong
encouragement, prayers and moral support for the whole course of these MA studies.

Finally, I am so indebted to all of my classmates for their teamwork spirit and sociability while
courses and thesis write up.

May The Almighty God grant you his plentiful grace!

Anatole UWIRARAGIYE

June 2016
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ABSTRACT
Agricultural production is highly sensitive to climate change and variability. Abnormal variability
in temperature and rainfall patterns increases probability of reduction of crop yields that end up in
food insecurity as a direct consequence. This study explored the impact of climate change and
variability on maize production in the northern highlands and central plateaus wetlands of
Rwanda and its connection to food security for local farmers. Data were obtained using
different methods and techniques including review of existing published and unpublished reports,
analysis of meteorological data, field observation, household questionnaire and semi-structured
interviews.

The study revealed abnormal changes in rainfall and temperature where mean temperature has
increased by 0.85 0C in Bahimba wetland and 1.1 0C in Bishenyi wetland for the past 30 years.
Research findings show that rainfall decreased by 30 mm in Bahimba Wetland while increased
by 50 mm in Bishenyi wetland. Consequently, due to prolonged droughts in Bishenyi wetland,
maize yields reduced by 41% per hectare in 2013 and 51% per hectare in 2014. Likewise, in
Bahimba wetland, maize yield reduced by 17% per hectare in 2015. These reductions in maize
harvests have caused food insecurity among maize farmers and the entire population in the same
area. It is recommended that improved adaptation measures including watersheds management,
new drought resistant and early maturing maize varieties, community food reserves, savings and
credits groups, improving irrigation infrastructures, diversified income sources and improved
maize value chain should be taken to ensure increased maize yields and sustainable food security.

Key Words: Climate change, climate variability, Maize Production, local Farmers, Food security,
mitigation and Adaptation
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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

CCS Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage

CCVI Climate Change Vulnerability Index

CIP Crop Intensification Program
COVAMABA Cooperative de Valorization du Marais de Bahimba
DDP District Development Plan
EICV Enquête Intégrale de Condition de Vie
ENSO El Nino/Southern Oscillations
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GIS Geographic Information System
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone
MIDIMAR Ministry of Disasters Management and Refugees Affairs
MINAGRI Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources
MINITERE Ministry of Lands, Environment, Forestry, Water and Mining
NISR National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda
REMA Rwanda Environmental Management Authority
RMA Rwanda Meteorological Agency
RMS Rwanda Meteorological Service
SPSS Statistical Package for Social Science
SST Sea Surface Temperature
TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training
UNDP United Nations for Development Program
UNEP United Nations Environment Program
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UN-OHRLLS UN-Office of High Representative for Least Developed Countries
WMO World Meteorological Organization
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Declaration......................................................................................................................................................... i

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .............................................................................................................................. ii

ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................................... iii

TABLE OF CONTENTS.................................................................................................................................. v

LIST OF TABLES ..........................................................................................................................................viii

LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................................................... ix

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1

1.1. Background Information ........................................................................................................................ 1

1.2. Problem Statement ................................................................................................................................. 3

1.3. Objectives .............................................................................................................................................. 4

1.3.1. General Objective ............................................................................................................................... 4

1.3.2. Specific Objectives ............................................................................................................................. 5

1.4. Hypotheses ............................................................................................................................................. 5

1.5. Research Questions ................................................................................................................................ 5

1.6. Limitations of the Study ........................................................................................................................ 6

1.7. Conceptual Framework .......................................................................................................................... 6

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................... 7

2.1. Definitions of Key Concepts.................................................................................................................. 7

2.1.1. Climate ................................................................................................................................................ 7

2.1.2. Climate Variability ............................................................................................................................. 7

2.1.3. Climate Change................................................................................................................................... 7

2.1.4. Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability ............................................................................... 9

2.1.5. Mitigation and Adaptation ................................................................................................................ 12

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2.1.6. Food Security .................................................................................................................................... 14

2.1.7. Overview of Climate Change and Variability in Rwanda ................................................................ 15

2.1.8. Major Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies in Rwanda .................................................................. 19

CHAPTER THREE: MATERIALS AND METHODS ................................................................................. 22

3.1. Description of Study Area ................................................................................................................... 22

3.1.1. Bahimba Wetland ............................................................................................................................. 22

3.1.2 Bishenyi Wetland............................................................................................................................... 23

3.2. Source of Data ..................................................................................................................................... 25

3.2.1. Secondary Data ................................................................................................................................. 25

3.2.2 Primary Data ...................................................................................................................................... 28

3.3. Data Collection Techniques ................................................................................................................. 29

3.3.1. Field Observation.............................................................................................................................. 29

3.3.2. Household Survey ............................................................................................................................. 29

3.3.3. Interviews ......................................................................................................................................... 30

3.4. Data Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 30

CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ..................................................................................... 31

4.1. Research Findings ................................................................................................................................ 31

4.1.1. Status of Climate Change and Variability in Bahimba and Bishenyi Wetlands ............................... 32

4.1.2. Perceptions of Maize Farmers on Climate Change and Variability .................................................. 35

4.1.3. Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Maize Production ................................................... 36

4.1.3.1. Effects of Droughts on Maize Crop ............................................................................................... 36

4.1.3.2. Effects of Floods on Maize Crop ................................................................................................... 37

4.1.3.3. Effects of Diseases and Pests on Maize Production ...................................................................... 39

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4.1.3.4. Effects of Climate Changes on Maize Yields ................................................................................ 40

4.1.4. Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Food Security .......................................................... 42

4.1.5. Existing Adaptation Strategies among Maize Farmers ..................................................................... 44

4.1.6. Maize Farmers Constraints in Implementing Adaptation Strategies ................................................ 46

4.1.7. Proposed Adaptation Strategies to Improve Maize Production ........................................................ 47

4.2. Discussion ............................................................................................................................................ 49

4.2.1. Fluctuation of Rainfall and Temperature in the Study Area ............................................................. 49

4.2.2. Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Maize Production and Food Security ..................... 51

4.2.3. Sustainable Adaptation Practices to Improve Maize Production and Food Security........................ 53

CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................. 55

5.1. Hypotheses Verification ...................................................................................................................... 55

5.2. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 57

5.3. Recommendations................................................................................................................................ 58

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................... 60

APPENDICES ................................................................................................................................................... i
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Major Diseases and Pests of Maize Crop ......................................................................................... 40

Table 2: Relation between agricultural Inputs and Maize Yields ................................................................... 42

Table 3: Indicators of Food Insecurity among Maize Farmers ....................................................................... 43

Table 4: Farmers Constraints in Implementing Adaptation Strategies ........................................................... 47

Table 5: Proposed Coping Strategies to Improve Maize Production .............................................................. 48

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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Conceptual Framework (adapted from Jecha Haji, 2013) ................................................................. 6

Figure 2: Mean Annual Temperature at Kigali Weather Station (RMA, 2014) ............................................. 16

Figure 3: Mean Annual Temperature at Kamembe Weather Station (RMA, 2014) ....................................... 17

Figure 4: Annual Mean Rainfall of Kigali Airport Meteorological Station (Rwanyiziri & Rugema, 2013) .. 18

Figure 5: Annual Number of Rain Days at Kigali Station (Mutabazi, 2010) ................................................. 19

Figure 6: Map of Bahimba Wetland in Rulindo District (CGIS, 2016) .......................................................... 23

Figure 7: Map of Bishenyi Wetland in Kamonyi District (CGIS, 2016) ........................................................ 24

Figure 8: Merging rainfall (RMA, 2016) ........................................................................................................ 26

Figure 9: Merging Temperature (RMA, 2016) ............................................................................................... 26

Figure 10: Extraction of rainfall datasets for the study locations (Author’s construct, 2016) ........................ 27

Figure 11: Imported merged rainfall dataset in Excel sheet (Author’s construct, 2016) ................................ 28

Figure 12: Trend of Temperature for Bahimba Wetland between 1981 and 2014 (RMA, 2016) .................. 32

Figure 13: Trend of Temperature for Bishenyi Wetland between 1981 and 2014 (RMA, 2016) ................... 33

Figure 14: Trend of Rainfall for Bahimba Wetland between 1981 and 2014 (RMA, 2016) .......................... 34

Figure 15: Trend of Rainfall for Bishenyi Wetland between 1981 and 2014 (RMA, 2016) .......................... 34

Figure 16: Actual Climate Conditions in Bahimba and Bishenyi Wetlands (Field Survey, March 2016) ..... 36

Figure 17: Effects of Droughts on Maize Crop (Field Survey, March 2016) ................................................. 37

Figure 18: Effects of Floods on Maize Crop (Field Survey, March 2016) ..................................................... 38

Figure 19: A Photo Showing a Flooding Phenomenon in Bahimba Wetland (Author, 2016)........................ 38

Figure 20: Major Consequences of Diseases and Pests on Maize Production ................................................ 39

Figure 21: Trends of Maize Yields in the Last Five Years (2011 – 2015) ..................................................... 41

Figure 22: Farmers’ Initiatives in Reducing Vulnerability to Food Insecurity (Field Survey, 2016) ............ 44

Figure 23: Adaptation Strategies (Field Survey, March 2016) ....................................................................... 45

Figure 24: Adaptation Strategies to Floods (Field Survey, March 2016) ....................................................... 46
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CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

Climate change and variability is one of the huge challenges being reversing the efforts of
development worldwide. Agricultural production is the most vulnerable sector to climate change
and variability especially for the developing countries including Rwanda. It is in this context that
the study was conducted to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on agricultural
production and food security with a focus to maize production in wetland zones. These wetlands
are located in both highlands and central plateaus of the country precisely in Bahimba wetland
(Rulindo District) and Bishenyi wetland (Kamonyi District) respectively. The reason is that the
nature and magnitude of impacts of climate change and variability vary with geographical location.

1.1. Background Information

The global climate has been changing including precipitation patterns and rising average
temperatures. Climate change brings new challenges and new risks for all human activities on the
planet (Rian, 2008). Today, climate change and variability is becoming the most major challenge
experienced worldwide (Bizimana, 2014). In recent decades, changes in climate have caused
impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. According to IPCC
(2014) and Bizimana (2014), climate change will amplify existing risks and create new risks
unevenly distributed and generally greater for the disadvantaged people and communities in
countries at all levels of development.

IPCC (2014b) defines climate change as any change in state of the climate in terms of mean and
variability of its relevant quantities such as temperature, precipitation, and wind for an extended
period typically 10 years or longer. It is caused by natural internal processes and external forcing
like solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of
atmosphere and in land use. Climate variability however refers to a shorter term variations in
climate such as the fluctuations associated with El Niño or La Niña events (Bizimana, 2014).
Action Aid (2015) reported that the amount of greenhouse gases already present in the atmosphere
is enough to increase the average of temperature of the planet.
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Consequently, the occurrence and the severity of extreme climatic events like storms, droughts,
serious floods, landslides, crop failures and food insecurity will became even more common and
grave than today.

Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies for reducing and managing the risks of
climate change. Despite several adaptation initiatives being undertaken including the
implementation of National Adaptation Programs of Actions, climate change related threats,
particularly severe floods, droughts and extreme temperatures, are increasingly exposing the
millions of people to poverty, hunger and disease. Recent climate models reveal that more
adaptation and mitigation actions are required along with added capacity building and technology
transfer in order to increase resilience capacity. Developing Countries especially in Africa are
predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change as the majority of population in these
countries fully depend on income from rain-fed agriculture with limited adaptive capacity to
climatic shocks. The adaptation capacity in these poor countries is undermined by the limited
availability of social, economic, political and technical resources available to rural communities
(IPCC, 2014; UN-OHRLLS, 2009). Climate change impacts are predicted to threaten past
development gains and constrain future economic progress as well as adversely affect food security
and worsen malnutrition (SEI, 2009).

Agricultural production, including access to food, is projected to be severely compromised.

Projected reductions in yield in some countries could be as much as 50% by 2020, and crop net
revenues could fall by as much as 90% by 2100, with small-scale farmers being the most affected.
Most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa depend on rain-fed agriculture for food security and
employment to keep their economies growing and viable (IPCC, 2007). In Rwanda, agriculture
represents more than 43% of the Gross Domestic Product and crop production constitutes the major
part of agricultural production for the majority of the Rwandese households (MIDIMAR, 2015).
However, Rwanda being the one of most vulnerable developing countries, climate change and
variability effects will reverse efforts to improve food security and keep rural community poor until
they understand their situation and risks to prescribe more suitable innovative coping strategies.
The rainfall seasons have already been unexpectedly starting late and farmers were increasingly
wary of establishing new optimal times for planting their crops that has negatively impacted their
livelihoods and increased vulnerability to food insecurity.
 3

Floods also have reduced food production by a margin of 20-30% in marshlands (Mutabazi, 2010).
Rwanda has already experienced a growing number of disasters in recent decades amongst these
disasters are droughts, floods, landslides and windstorms especially occurred in 1988, 1989, 2000,
2005-2006, 2010, 2011 and 2014 which have caused physical, social and economic damages and
losses (MIDIMAR, 2015). The average temperature has increased from 19.8 ° C in 1971 and 20.7
°C in 2007, making an increase of 0.9 °C in 27 years and the number of days of rainfall has
dropped from 148 to 124 from 1971 to 2009 (REMA, 2014).

Effective decision-making to address climate change effects can be informed by a wide range
analysis of existing and near future climate related risks recognizing the importance of governance
and diverse perceptions and responses to risk and uncertainty. Adaptation is required in every
sector to address climate change effects but their context for implementation and potential to
reduce vulnerability differs across sectors and regions (IPCC, 2014). Therefore, this study intended
to contribute to the body of research in the area of climate change by assessing the effects of
climate change and variability on maize production in wetlands and the extent to which have
impacted food security focusing on Bahimba and Bishenyi Wetlands in Rulindo and Kamonyi
Districts located in highlands and plateaus respectively.

1.2. Problem Statement

The population of Rwanda is largely rural and the majority of them are fully engaged in rain-fed
agriculture. This sector employs 72.7% of population and among them 82% are women
smallholder farmers (NISR, 2012). Cultivating households are at 84.1% in Rulindo District and at
85% in Kamonyi District (NISR, 2012). One of the major inputs in agricultural production is land
and only 52 % of the land surface area is arable, representing approximately 1,385,000 hectares.
The country has 860 marshlands covering a total surface of 278,536 hectares (10.6 % of the
country surface area) and 53 % are under cropping mainly used for maize and rice production
(REMA, 2008).

However, the changing climatic conditions were causing poor performance of agriculture including
maize production that has been worsening food security situation, nutrition and health throughout
the country.
 4

The intensity and frequency of climate hazards and their adverse effects are exacerbated by the
topographical structure of Rwanda’s territory mainly characterized by a very accidental relief very
prone to erosion and landslides. The southern part of the country is already rainfall constrained and
prone to aggravating dry spells and prolonged droughts while in Northern region, crops failure is
caused by heavy rainfall and floods (MINITERE and UNEP, 2006; Rwanyiziri and Rugema,
2013).

Maize is one of the major crops which have been selected by the Government of Rwanda (GoR) to
help in achieving agricultural-market oriented and food sovereignty in the country. However,
maize production in wetlands has been facing with serious impacts of climate change and
variability include water stress during the extended dry spells that also increases proliferation of
crop pests and diseases particularly in lowlands and central plateaus of the country. In highlands,
hilly terrain, deforestation and heavy rainfalls cause floods and siltation that damage crops and
destroy irrigation infrastructures. According to IPCC (2014), without additional adaptation efforts
beyond those in place today, climate change will lead to high and very high risk of severe,
widespread and irreversible negative impacts especially on agriculture that will lead to food
insecurity and hunger.

Therefore, there is a need of better understanding of the nature and magnitude of the impacts of
climate change and variability in wetlands as the last options for crop production particularly while
prolonged droughts. This research assessed major impacts of climate change and variability which
maize farmers have been facing or are likely to be facing in the near future to contribute in the
identification of suitable adaptation measures, enhance preparedness and resilience capacity hence
reduce vulnerability to food insecurity among maize farmers and Rwanda’s population in general.

1.3. Objectives

1.3.1. General Objective

The main objective of this study was to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on
wetland agricultural production and food security in Rwanda with a focus to maize production in
Bahimba (Rulindo District) and Bishenyi (Kamonyi District) wetlands.
 5

1.3.2. Specific Objectives

To achieve the main objective, the specific objectives were as follows:

1. To evaluate the current trends of rainfall and temperature patterns in the study area;

2. To assess the impacts of climate change and variability on maize production and food security
in the study area;

3. To propose suitable adaptation practices for better coping with climate change and variability
impacts on maize production and food security in the study area.

1.4. Hypotheses

1. There are significant abnormal changes in rainfall and temperature over the past 30 years in the
study area.

2. Changes in rainfall and temperature patterns have lowered maize yields and this has
significantly contributed to food insecurity among maize farmers in the study area.

3. New drought resistant varieties and/or early maturing maize varieties are some climate change
and variability adaptation strategies, among others, towards an increased maize production and
improved food security in the study area.

1.5. Research Questions

The study was guided by the main research question: "to what extent maize production and food
security is affected by the impacts of climate change and variability?"

This main question is further guided by the following sub-questions:

1. To what extent the rainfall and temperature have fluctuated over the past 30 years in the study
area?
2. What are the impacts of climate change and variability on maize production and food security
in the study area?
3. What are the possible adaptation practices to better cope with climate change and variability on
maize production and food security in the study area?
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1.6. Limitations of the Study

The 1994 Tutsi Genocide in Rwanda destroyed more than 80% of meteorological infrastructures
and more than 90% of RMA employees were lost. Though very few meteorological stations
reopened since 1998 only the station of Kigali Airport has pre- and post-genocide climate data
(Mutabazi, 2010).

Although Rwanda Meteorology Agency recovered data at all local levels using merging methods
(satellite and gauges), rainfall and temperature data during genocide were available as the weather
stations were destroyed and due to this challenge, climate data used for the study were not 100%
accurate.

In addition, the study could not obtain all seasonal maize production data over the entire period
under study as the Crop Intensification Program (CIP) for maize was formally implemented in the
selected wetlands since 2010 that could not allow deepening the effect of climate change/variability
on maize yields over the past 30 years.

1.7. Conceptual Framework

The present study assumes that if rainfall and temperature which are the main weather parameters
are abnormally changed, maize production (yields) will decrease then adversely affect food
security as shown in figure below.

Climate Change and Variability

(Rainfall and Temperature)

Food Security/Insecurity

Crop Production (Maize Yields)

Figure 1: Conceptual Framework (adapted from Jecha Haji, 2013)

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CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

This chapter discusses the definitions of key concepts under climate change and variability, the
review of related scientific publications on climate change and variability worldwide including
Rwanda, its adverse impacts on agriculture and food security, and mitigation and adaptation
options.

2.1. Definitions of Key Concepts

2.1.1. Climate
Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the “average weather” or more rigorously as the
statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of
time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30 years, as
defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These relevant quantities are most
often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate in a wider sense is
the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system.

2.1.2. Climate Variability

Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard
deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales
beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due to natural internal processes
within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external
forcing (external variability). The UNFCCC makes a distinction between “climate change”
attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and “climate variability”
attributable to natural causes.

2.1.3. Climate Change

As defined by IPCC (2014), climate change refers to a change in the state of climate that can be
identified (e.g. by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its
properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. The United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in its article 1, defines “climate
change” as: “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periods.”
 8

Climate change is also caused by natural processes or external forcing such as modulation of the
solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the
atmosphere or in land use. Muhammad (2012) reported that climate change occurs by change in
the mean, frequency or both. In addition, UNFCCC confirmed that global climate is changing,
largely due to the observed increases in human produced greenhouse gases where greenhouse
gases absorb heat from the sun in the atmosphere and reduce the amount of heat escaping into
space. This extra heat has been found to be the primary cause of observed changes in the climate
system over the 20th century.

IPCC (2014) indicated that Greenhouse gases contributed to global mean surface warming likely to
be in the range of 0.5°C to 1.3°C for the period 1951 to 2010, with the contributions from other
anthropogenic forcings, including the cooling effect of aerosols, likely to be in the range of −0.6°C
to 0.1°C. The contribution from natural forcings is likely to be in the range of −0.1°C to 0.1°C, and
from natural internal variability is likely to be in the range of −0.1°C to 0.1°C. Together these
assessed contributions are consistent with the observed warming of approximately 0.6°C to 0.7°C
over this period. Anthropogenic influences have affected the global water cycle since 1960 and
have also contributed to observed increases in moisture content in the atmosphere (medium
confidence), to global scale changes in precipitation patterns over land (medium confidence), to
intensification of heavy precipitation over land regions where data are sufficient (medium
confidence), and to changes in surface and sub-surface ocean salinity (very likely).

Moreover, IPCC (2014) stated that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further
warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Changes in the global water cycle in
response to the warming over the 21st century will not be uniform and the contrast in precipitation
between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase but there may be
regional exceptions.

Joseph (2013) stated that human emissions of greenhouse gases, principally carbon dioxide (CO2),
methane, and nitrous oxide, are causing a catastrophic rise in global temperatures. During the past
century, human activities such as burning wood and fossil fuels and cutting down or burning
forests are thought to have increased the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere by approximately
50 percent.
 9

Continued burning of fossil fuels and deforestation could double the amount of CO2 in the
atmosphere during the next 100 years, assuming natural “sinks” don’t grow in pace with emissions.

Furthermore, De Laat et al. (2004) stated that clearing forests, irrigating deserts and building cities
cause climate change. Cities tend to be warmer than suburbs, and suburbs warmer than rural areas,
because they have greater concentrations of energy-producing machines and vehicles and large
amounts of concrete, asphalt, and other building and road materials that absorb solar energy and
then re-emit thermal energy leading to global warming. Also, Muhammad (2013) reported that
climate has been changing largely due to the observed increases in human produced greenhouse
gases that absorb heat from the sun in the atmosphere and reduce the amount of heat escaping into
space. This extra heat has been found to be the primary cause of observed changes in the climate
system over the 20th century.

2.1.4. Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability

This refers to the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses
a variety of concepts and elements including sensibility or susceptibility to harm and lack of
capacity to cope and adapt (IPCC, 2014). According to MINIRENA (2013), the population of
Rwanda faces multiple vulnerabilities to climate change effects because of its ecological
sensitivity, and social and economic structure. In addition, Government of Rwanda (GoR) has
developed a community/household climate change vulnerability index using 14 indicators which
were divided into three categories namely exposure (changes in temperature, changes in rainfall
patterns, drought episodes, flooding events); sensitivity (soil erosion and landslides, soil fertility,
changes in natural environment, dependency level, irrigation, Livelihood sources) and adaptive
capacity(awareness, information, surplus production and adoption of changed agricultural
practices).
As reported by Rian (2008), climate change poses many risks to human activities especially those
are specific to agricultural production include but not limited to:
 Warmer and shorter winters

 Increasing annual average temperatures

 Summer droughts affecting quality and quantity of water resource

 Increased competition for declining water supplies will increase

 10

 Increased agricultural drought intensity

 Increasing frequency of severe weather events such as, ice storms, tornadoes, floods,
droughts and heat wave

 Heavier shorter duration rainfalls resulting in increased erosion, flooding and runoff of
nutrients, pesticides and other toxins from agricultural operations.

 Increasing risk of non-native (invasive) pests and diseases to crop

 Longer growing seasons, but crop yields may be impacted by increased and longer
droughts.

Mark et al. (2008) highlighted some of the direct impacts of climate change on agricultural system
as follows:

(a) Seasonal changes in rainfall and temperature, which could impact agro-climatic
conditions, altering growing seasons, planting and harvesting calendars, water
availability, pest, weed and disease populations;

(b) Alteration in evapotranspiration, photosynthesis and biomass production;

(c) Alteration in land suitability for agricultural production; some of the induced changes
are expected to be abrupt, while others involve gradual shifts in temperature, vegetation
cover and species distributions. As found by Matarira and al. (1995), even though
irrigation can boost maize production, the yields are lower under climate change
conditions than under normal climate.

The reduction in mean seasonal precipitation under climate change conditions implies that the
water available for irrigation purposes would also be affected accordingly. This will reduce the
effectiveness of irrigation as a strategy to combat the effects of climate change. Yield decreases are
caused primarily by the increase in temperature, which shortens the duration of the crop growth
stages particularly the grain fill period. IPCC (2007) reported potential impacts of climate change
on agricultural production in different parts of the world and has predicted a decrease of up to 30%
in world food production due to effects of climate change on agriculture.
 11

A South African study undertaken by the University of Pretoria focusing at the provincial level,
found significant correlation between higher historical temperatures and reduced dry lands staple
production and forecast a fall in net crop revenues by as much as 90% by 2100. The study found
small-scale farmers to be worst affected by the decrease.

The developing world already contends with chronic poverty and food crisis due to climate change.
Khanal (2009) classified the impact of climate change on agriculture into biophysical and socio-
economic impact. The biophysical impacts include: physiological effects on crop and livestock,
change in land, soil and water resources, increased weed and pest challenges, shifts in spatial and
temporal distribution of impacts, sea level rise and changes to ocean salinity and sea temperature
rise causing fish to inhabit in different ranges. The socio-economic impacts result in decline in
yield and production, reduced marginal GDP from agriculture, fluctuation in world market price,
changes in geographical distribution of trade regime, increased number of people at risk of hunger
and food insecurity, migration and civil unrest. He also reported that the patterns of the effects of
climatic change are dependent on latitude, altitude, type of crop grown and livestock reared. When
temperatures exceed the optimal level for biological process, crops often respond negatively with a
steep drop in net growth and yield.

Brussel (2009) stated that rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, higher temperatures, changes in
annual and seasonal precipitation patterns and in the frequency of extreme events will affect the
volume, quality, quantity, stability of food production and the natural environment in which
agriculture takes place. In extreme cases, the degradation of agricultural ecosystems could mean
desertification, resulting in a total loss of the productive capacity of the land in question.

This is likely to increase the dependence on food importation and the number of people at risk of
famine. Morton (2007) in his research found three different categories of climate change impact
upon smallholder livelihoods namely biological processes affecting crops and animals at the levels
of individual organisms or fields; Environmental and physical processes affecting production at a
landscape, watershed or community level and impacts of climate change on human health and on
nonagricultural livelihoods.

Uzayisenga (2014) has showed a direct impact of changes in temperature, CO2 and precipitation on
yields of both food and cash crops as well as health of livestock.
 12

She reported that higher levels of warming will have serious negative impacts on yields of maize
and wheat. Increases in temperature increase irrigation water requirements of major crops and
increasing water stress. He also reported that proliferation of crop pests and diseases increase under
climate change. According to her report, there was an increase in Maize Streak Virus and Cassava
Mosaic Virus in areas where rainfall increases, and sorghum head smut (a fungal disease) in areas
where rainfall decreases (which would be compounded by farmers switching adaptively to
sorghum in areas where maize becomes marginal).

According to MINAGRI (2009), extreme climate events have adverse environmental impacts on
agricultural productivity. For instance, the 2008A and 2008B harvests were both negatively
affected by serious droughts that came in at the beginning of the planting season. The droughts
destroyed just-planted seeds and in some instances delayed planting so that crops became
vulnerable to dry spells late in the season in ways that affected overall productivity.

2.1.5. Mitigation and Adaptation

a) Mitigation is defined as the action of reducing the severity, seriousness, or painfulness of
something. According to UNEP, climate change mitigation refers to efforts to reduce or prevent
emission of greenhouse gases. New technologies and renewable energies can be used to making
older equipment more energy efficient, or changing management practices or consumer behavior. It
can be as complex as a plan for a new city or as a simple as improvements to a cook stove design.
Efforts underway around the world range from high-tech subway systems to bicycling paths and
walkways.

Protecting natural carbon sinks like forests and oceans, or creating new sinks through silviculture
or green agriculture are also elements of mitigation. Reducing climate change involves reducing
the flow of heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, either by reducing sources of these
gases (for example, the burning of fossil fuels for electricity, heat or transport) or enhancing
the “sinks” that accumulate and store these gases (such as the oceans, forests and soil).

The goal of mitigation is to avoid dangerous human interference with the climate system,
and “stabilize greenhouse gas levels in a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt
naturally to climate change, ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic
development to proceed in a sustainable manner” (IPCC, 2014).
 13

b) Adaptation involves adjusting to actual or expected future climate. The goal is to reduce
vulnerability to the harmful effects of climate change (like sea-level encroachment, more intense
extreme weather events or food insecurity).

It also encompasses making the most of any potential beneficial opportunities associated with
climate change (for example, longer growing seasons or increased yields in some regions). Though
climate change is a global issue; it is also felt on a local scale. Cities and municipalities are
therefore at the frontline of adaptation. In the absence of national or international climate policy
direction, cities and local communities around the world have been focusing on solving their own
climate problems. They were working to build flood defenses, plan for heat waves and higher
temperatures, install water-permeable pavements to better deal with floods and storm water and
improve water storage and use.

In addition, IPCC (2014) defines adaptation as the process of adjustment to actual or expected
climate and its effects. The report states that in human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or
avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may
facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects. Governments at various levels are also
getting better at adaptation. Climate change started to be factored into a variety of development
plans like how to manage the increasingly extreme disasters we are seeing and their associated
risks, how to protect coastlines and deal with sea-level encroachment, how to best manage land and
forests, how to deal with and plan for reduced water availability, how to develop resilient crop
varieties and how to protect energy and public infrastructure.

According to IPCC (2014), carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies could reduce
the lifecycle GHG emissions of fossil fuel power plants.

It also indicates that combining bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) offers the prospect of energy
supply with large-scale net negative emissions which plays an important role in many low-
stabilization scenarios, while it entails challenges and risks. Regarding waste management,
important options for mitigation in waste management are waste reduction, followed by re-use,
recycling and energy recovery.
 14

2.1.6. Food Security

Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient
safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and
healthy life (FAO, 2008). From this definition, four main dimensions of food security can be
identified as follows:
(1) Physical availability of food: Food availability addresses the “supply side” of food security
and is determined by the level of food production, stock levels and net trade;

(2) Economic and physical access to food: An adequate supply of food at the national or
international level does not in itself guarantee household level food security. Concerns about
insufficient food access have resulted in a greater policy focus on incomes, expenditure,
markets and prices in achieving food security objectives;

(3) Food utilization commonly understood as the way the body makes the most of various
nutrients in the food. Sufficient energy and nutrient intake by individuals is the result of good
care and feeding practices, food preparation, and diversity of the diet and intra-household
distribution of food. Combined with good biological utilization of food consumed, this
determines the nutritional status of individuals and;

(4) Stability of the other three dimensions overtime: Even if your food intake is adequate today,
you are still considered to be food insecure if you have inadequate access to food on a periodic
basis, risking a deterioration of your nutritional status.
Adverse weather conditions, political instability, or economic factors (unemployment, rising food
prices) may have an impact on your food security status.

In opposite to food security, FAO (2008) reported that there are two type of food insecurity: (1)
Chronic food insecurity which occurs when people are unable to meet their minimum food
requirements over a sustained period of time, and (2) Transitory food insecurity which occurs
when there is a sudden drop in the ability to produce or access enough food to maintain a good
nutritional status.
 15

2.1.7. Overview of Climate Change and Variability in Rwanda

Rwanda’s climate is generally equatorial, but strongly influenced by the mountainous and hill relief
of the country.
It is mainly determined by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and additionally by
subtropical anticyclones, monsoons, East waves as well as the tile connections related to the
temperatures of the oceans (SST) and episodes of El Nino/Southern Oscillations (ENSO).
Normally climate of Rwanda was moderate characterized by two rainy seasons from mid-
September to mid- December and from mid-February to May and two dry seasons from Mid-
December to Mid-February and from June to mid-September (UNDP, 2010).

Mutabazi (2010) found that temperature has increased with high frequency of warm days
exceeding 30°C. He also found that the number of annual rain days decreased that is likely to
negatively impact on agricultural productivity as crops requires the quantity of water within the
given number of days. He mentioned that frequency of torrential rain increased with daily rainfall
quantity sometimes exceeding the total monthly rainfall caused floods and soil erosion. He also
noted that the number of dry spells during rainy season increased and affected poor performance of
crops due to the late set of rainfall and/or early rainfall cessation during rainy season also caused
poor performance of agriculture productivity. He noted that annual mean maximum temperatures
range from 13 ° C to 28 ° C according to the layering of relief. The low values of 13 ° C to 20 °c;
are observed in Northwest in the volcanic region. The highest values above 25 ° C are located in
the east and south east of the country and that the shores of Lake Kivu. Elsewhere in the country,
the maximum temperatures are viable at 20 ° C to 25 °C.

REMA (2010) reported that observations and analysis from existing data shows that over the last
30 years, some parts of Rwanda have experienced unusual irregularities in climate patterns
including variability in rainfall frequencies and intensity, persistence of extremes like heavy
rainfall in the northern parts and drought in the eastern and southern parts. Analysis of rainfall
trends show that rainy seasons are tending to become shorter with higher intensity. This tendency
has led to decreases in agricultural production and events such as droughts in dry areas; and floods
or landslides in areas experiencing heavy rains. Heavy rains have been being observed especially in
the northern and the western province.
 16

These heavy rains coupled with a loss of ecosystems services resulting from deforestation and poor
agricultural practices have resulted in soil erosion, rock falls, landslides and floods which destroy
crops, houses and other infrastructure (roads, bridges and schools) as well as loss of human and
animal lives. Heavy rainfall, in combination with natural factors like topography, is having great
impact in some areas. Floods and landslides are the main disasters in the high altitude regions
mainly during the rainy seasons. Indeed in light of Rwanda’s topography, the potential for flash
flooding in many parts of the country is ever present.

2.1.7.1. Status of Temperature in Rwanda

The analysis of the average annual temperatures from the Kigali Airport and Kamembe
meteorological stations shows a consistent increase in average temperature from 1971 to 2012. For
Kigali, the average temperature has increased from 19.8°C in 1971 to 21.0°C while Kamembe
experienced an increase from 18.9°C to 19.7°C in 2012. The figure 2&3 below showed that the
mean temperature has increased from 20.20C to 21.90C for Kigali weather station (+1.70C) and
19.10C to 21.10C (+10C) for Kamembe weather station since 1971 up to 2011.

Figure 2: Mean Annual Temperature at Kigali Weather Station (RMA, 2014)

 17

Figure 3: Mean Annual Temperature at Kamembe Weather Station (RMA, 2014)

Although the trends at Kigali and Kamembe stations have a gentle slope, a 1.2°C increase in 4
decades is as worrisome as it exceeds the 0.8°C reported to have been caused by global warming
over a period of 150 years (Figure 3). According to Ruosteenoja et al. (2003) the temperature is
expected to increase gradually in Rwanda during the 21st century.

2.1.7.2. Status of Rainfall in Rwanda

The analysis of rainfall data recorded at Kanombe Airport weather station reveals that total annual
rainfall has significantly changed and more unpredictable patterns of precipitation increased. The
highest rainfall was observed in the year 1998, 2001, 2010 and the lowest in 1992, 2000 and
2008. In other years the amount is fluctuated. However, between 1980 and 1992 the amount of
rainfall is generally decreasing and between 1992 and 2003 there is extremely high variability.
From the year 2003 to 2011, the trend shows that the rainfall is increasing. Although the overall
trend shows a declining trend, there is tendency towards increased precipitation seen from 2008
onwards (RMS, 2012 cited in Rwanyiziri and Rugema, 2013).
 18

Figure 4: Annual Mean Rainfall of Kigali Airport Meteorological Station (Rwanyiziri &
Rugema, 2013)

REMA (2010) assessment, observed rainfall at Kigali meteorological station indicated that the
monthly and annual total rainfalls recorded during the six years are generally lower than the
average of 1961 to 1990. More particularly, April, the month with the highest rainfalls has been
recorded as having the rainfall equivalent to 27%, 48%, 88%, 70% and 52% respectively in
2000,2001,2002,2003 and 2005. Months of July, September, November and December have had
higher rainfalls than normal with the percentages respectively of 1,441% (in 2001), 189% (in
2003), 165% (in 2006) and 153% (in 2006).
The comparison of 1971-1990 and 1991-2009 periods indicate that the monthly average number of
rain days generally decreased for most of months including April and November, the rainiest
months of year. In fact the annual average total number of rain days was 146 days for the period
1971-1990 and become 131 days for the period 1991-2009.

This indicates the poor rainfall performance in last years. This is also confirmed by the annual
average rainfall totals which decreased from 1020 mm to 920 mm. In other words, during the 1991-
2009 periods, there is a decrease of average rainfall of about 100 mm per year compared to 1971-
1990 period. Figure 3 shows the trend of annual total number of rainfall days.
 19

Figure 5: Annual Number of Rain Days at Kigali Station (Mutabazi, 2010)

2.1.8. Major Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies in Rwanda

Climate change affects all but people in the greatest danger live in the poorest countries or small
island nations due to the least resources to protect their people”. Climate change vulnerability in
Rwanda has already been experienced in the areas of agriculture and food security; renewable
energy; frequency of natural disasters and epidemics, among others (REMA, 2010).

Though Rwanda is a low-carbon economy, it’s among those most vulnerable to climate change.
According to REMA Strategic Plan (2010-2015), recent events such prolonged droughts
characterized by crop failures, erratic and destructive rains, floods, have demonstrated that climate
change is real and will affect poor countries like Rwanda and poor, natural resource dependent
communities with limited safety nets like the most Rwandans. Presently, climate change
management initiatives in Rwanda are limited to monitoring greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions
and a few projects for mitigation and adaptation, under the Rio Multilateral Environmental
Agreements (MEAs). Yet the scale and magnitude of climate change effects will be large and
multi-sectorial requiring holistic, integrated, sustainable, policy-linked interventions.
 20

Under the EDPRS and Vision 2020, REMA has designed a comprehensive national climate change
policy and strategy to integrate climate change into all development policies, programs and budgets
to address the following priorities:
 Generating spatial and thematic information on Rwanda’s climate change vulnerability,
including implications for poverty reduction and regional integration;
 Developing a policy and institutional framework for integrated climate change management;
 Capacity development for climate change management including disaster preparedness and
response, climate change mitigation and adaptation, in a sustainable way;
 Public-private partnerships for sustainable financing and management of climate change
issues, including international negotiations and communication

In addition, MINIRENA (2013), Government of Rwanda has been implementing large-scale

afforestation projects specifically to reverse deforestation and increase the supply of forest and tree
resources. In 2006, Rwanda formulated a National Adaptation Programs of Action to Climate
Change (NAPA) that communicate priority activities addressing the urgent and immediate needs
and concerns relating to adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change. NAPA specifically
highlighted the following strategic priority responses to addressing climate change (adaptation):

1. An Integrated Water Resource Management – IWRM;

2. Setting up an information system to early warning of hydro-agro meteorological system and
rapid intervention mechanisms;
3. Promotion of non-agricultural income generating activities;
4. Promotion of intensive agro-pastoral activities;
5. Introduction of species resisting to environmental conditions;
6. Development of firewood alternative sources of energy; and
7. A National Plan for Disaster Management (Emergency Plans).
 21

Furthermore, through FONERWA (2015), GoR also has designed a metadata handbook that
encompasses the government targets to fight climate change which include: cumulative volume of
finance mobilized for climate and environment purposes; area (ha) forest and agro-forest cover;
area (ha) of watersheds and water bodies protected; research and feasibility studies that facilitate
adoption of clean and climate-resilient technologies; Number of households with improved access
to off-grid clean energy; tons of CO2 equivalent emissions avoided; number of people supported to
cope with effects of climate change; national level MIS with sufficient environmental & climate
change data to inform policy decisions; number of people involved in climate resilient income
generation activities among others.

Changes in government policy in response to climate change would have a very significant
influence on how agriculture ultimately responds. The availability of facilities, level of funding and
outlook on private sector initiative can greatly influence the rate at which crop varieties, livestock
breeds, agricultural technologies, and management systems adaptable to climate change can be
implemented (Parry and Duinker, 1990). Efforts to manage agricultural climate risks can involve
many decision-makers, conflicting values, competing objectives and methodologies, multiple
options, uncertain outcomes and debatable probabilities.

According to Mizina et al. (1999); Reilly and Schimmelpfennig (1999), adaptation is an important
component of any policy response to climate change. Without adaptation, climate change will be
problematic for agricultural production and for agricultural economies and communities.
Adaptations to climate change occur at two levels: the farm level where adaptations arise from the
farmers’ perception of changed or changing conditions and the national level adaptations as
reflected in government policy.

He also highlighted the forms of adaptation at farm-level include modification of resource

management, purchasing crop insurance, and diversification while forms of policy level
adaptations include aid for research and development, incentive strategies and infrastructure
measures. Agricultural adaptation options are grouped according to four main categories that are
not mutually exclusive: (1) technological developments, (2) government programs and insurance,
(3) farm production practices, and (4) farm financial management. The typology is based on the
scale at which adaptations are undertaken and at which the stakeholders are involved (Barry and al.
(2002).
 22

CHAPTER THREE: MATERIALS AND METHODS

This chapter discusses the methodology used in the study, describes the study areas, the population
and sample size, sample selection techniques, research instruments, methods of data collection,
data management and analysis.

3.1. Description of Study Area

The research was conducted in the highlands and central plateaus of Rwanda precisely in Rulindo
(Highland) and Kamonyi (plateau) Districts. In Rulindo District Bahimba wetland was chosen and
in Kamonyi District, Bishenyi wetland was also selected. Maize farmers using these wetlands
constituted the sample population for the study.

3.1.1. Bahimba Wetland

This study focused on Bahimba Wetland located in Rulindo District in highlands of Rwanda. The
District shares its borders with Gasabo and Kamonyi Districts in the South, Gakenke District in the
West, Gicumbi District in the East and Burera District in the North. Rulindo District is one of the
five Districts that make up the Northern Province and the majority of the district's population
depends on agriculture whereby 84% of households are smallholder farmers.

The District has 17 administrative Sectors with an estimated total population of 288,452 of which
136,058 are males while 152,394 are females. The surface area is estimated at 567 km2 and
population density of 509 per km2 with the average annual growth rate within the last ten years
(2002-2012) being 1.4%. Rulindo District is mostly characterized by hills among which include
Tare, Tumba and Cyungo with their altitude rising to 2,438 m. These hills are interspersed by
valleys and swamps that also border with rivers of Nyabarongo, Muyanza and Nyabugogo. The
challenges in Rulindo include Low agricultural output/yields, soil acidity, climate variability and
limited research in agriculture. Compared with other districts in Northern Province, Rulindo district
has the highest percentage of extreme-poor. This depicts the required efforts and need for concrete
strategies to increase productive capacity of the population in order to come out of poverty
(Rulindo District, 2013).
 23

Bahimba wetland is located in two sectors namely Mbogo and Tumba. In wide sense, it covers five
sectors namely Mbogo, Tumba, Bushoki and Rusiga in Rulindo District, and Base Sector in
Gakenke District. Though the five sectors are all touched by Bahimba Wetland, the study focused
on only two sectors which are Mbogo and Tumba within which water resources are mostly found.

Figure 6: Map of Bahimba Wetland in Rulindo District (CGIS, 2016)

3.1.2 Bishenyi Wetland

Kamonyi is one of the eight Districts that make up the Southern Province and is located in the
central plateaus of the country. The District shares its borders with Ruhango District in the South,
Muhanga District in the West, Bugesera and Nyarugenge Districts in the East, Gakenke and
Rulindo Districts in the North. It is composed of 12 Sectors with a population of 342,792
inhabitants on a total surface area of 655.5 km² and 72,000 households (NISR, 2011). Its average
density is 523 inhabitants per Km2 and 85% of households are farmers. District's economy mainly
is based on agriculture and livestock.
 24

Kamonyi District is drained by the great river of Nyabarongo along the East and North of the
District and Akanyaru River which border the District in North and Eastern part. There are also a
number of small water courses, such as Kayumbu, Bakokwe, Bishenyi, Mukunguri, Nyabuvomo,
Bishenyi, Gatimbazi and Ruvubu. Its general relief is made of low lying plateau. The District is
facing with soil erosion and overexploitation due to demographic pressure. Marshlands occupy
4183.2Ha. District Kamonyi several marshes include: Rwabashyashya, Kibuza, Bishenyi,
Kayumbu, Mpomboli, Kivogo, Kavunja, Akanyaru, Mukunguli, Barama, Ruvubu and Nyabarongo
and most of them are used for food crops include Maize. Compared with the national agricultural
production level attained in different crops in the year 2011, the district is in low position in all
those crops. This study focused on Bishenyi Wetland located in two sectors namely Runda and
Rugarika (Kamonyi District, 2013).

Figure 7: Map of Bishenyi Wetland in Kamonyi District (CGIS, 2016)

 25

3.2. Source of Data

The study used existing rainfall and temperature data and maize yields of the last five years

3.2.1. Secondary Data

a) Existing Literature

The literature review consisted of the analysis of relevant climate-related scientific publications,
UNFCCC and IPCC reports, government reports and policy documents available in libraries,
ministries, local institutions, DDPs and key organizations’ and institutes’ archives such as
University of Rwanda/Huye Campus; National Institute of Statistics (NISR), Rwanda
Meteorological Agency (RMA) especially for rainfall and temperature data annually recorded over
the past 30 years, Rwanda Environment Management Authority (REMA), World Meteorological
Organization (WMO), Food Agriculture Organization (FAO), and United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP), Cooperative book records of seasonal maize harvests, among others.

b) Climatic Data
The current study used climate data of temperature and rainfall over the past 30 years to evaluate
the fluctuation of rainfall and temperature in the areas of study hence linked the climate changes to
the performance of maize crop in wetlands under study. The study used data merging method to
obtain specific data for the areas of study. The Merging method involves combining point
measurements from rain gauge networks and satellite estimates. Gauges provide “accurate” point
measurements, but limited spatial coverage whereas satellite and reanalysis provide information on
the spatial structure rainfall/temperature with excellent spatial coverage. As satellite data may not
be accurate, merging data combines the strengths of the two different data sets.

Simple bias removal

This involves the extraction of rainfall estimate values at rain gauge locations, computation of the
difference between satellite and rain gauge values at each station location, interpolating the
differences to each grid point (same as satellite pixel centers) then adding the interpolated
differences back to the satellite estimate.
 26

Merging Rainfall

Merging rainfall data involved combining rainfall data from both weather stations (gauges) and
satellite to obtain rainfall datasets for climate monitoring at small scale. The obtained rainfall
dataset over past 30 years helped to analyse rainfall fluctuation at the locations of study areas.

Figure 8: Merging rainfall (RMA, 2016)

Merging temperature

Merging temperature data also involved combining temperature data from weather stations and
satellite/reanalysis to evaluate temperature change at sectors levels. The obtained temperature dataset helped
to analysis temperature change over the past 30 years at Bahimba wetland (Tumba sector) and Bishenyi
wetland (Runda sector) as follows.

Figure 9: Merging Temperature (RMA, 2016)

 27

Process of obtaining climatic data

In order to obtain rainfall and temperature datasets, climate data tools computer program,
version2.3 was used. This software helped to get rainfall dataset and temperature dataset of the
study areas over the period of past 30 years by extracting rainfall and temperature data at the
locations of study areas as follows.

Figure 10: Extraction of rainfall datasets for the study locations (Author’s construct, 2016)
 28

Figure 11: Imported merged rainfall dataset in Excel sheet (Author’s construct, 2016)

c) Data of Maize Yields

The study used maize harvests data as recorded by maize farmers’ cooperatives to evaluate the
change in maize yields to help in analysis of relationship between maize yields, food security and
climate conditions in terms of rainfall, temperature, droughts and floods events as well as the
effects of maize pests and diseases.

3.2.2 Primary Data

Primary data focused on multi-methods approach include field observations and geospatial data
were obtained using Global Positioning System (GPS); taking pictures with a digital camera;
Interviews and focus group discussions (a combination of participatory and rapid assessment
techniques was used) and questionnaires where a semi-structured questionnaire was used in
farmers’ survey involving 200 maize farmers and 7 key informants.
 29

3.3. Data Collection Techniques

Data were obtained using a semi-structured interview and self-administered questionnaires were
completed by 200 maize farmers (n=200).. Group discussions and interviews with key informants
from Maize cooperative committees and local agronomists were also conducted (n=7) to obtain
different ideas in relation to impact of climate changes and their effects on maize yields in the
surveyed wetlands. Group discussion and interview focused on variables including the impacts of
climate change and variability on maize production in the study area, existing adaptation strategies
and the possible solutions for farmers to better cope with impacts of climate change and
variability. Climate data over the past 30 years consisting rainfall and temperature were obtained
from Rwanda Meteorological Agency.

3.3.1. Field Observation

The field observation focused of the physical status of wetlands’ and landscapes’ management
along with photo taking with a digital camera in order to get general picture of the current situation
in terms of wetland agricultural production mainly maize and management of the entire ecosystem
being exploited for crop development that helped to know and understand farmers’ practices
towards resilience to climate change and variability.

3.3.2. Household Survey

a) Population of the Study

The research population or target groups included the maize farmers in the two wetlands (Bahimba
and Bishenyi) and local government agronomists and key informants in the areas.

b) Sample Size

This thesis was conducted in two wetlands. A study population of 207 farmers was randomly
selected from the maize farmers using wetlands of Bahimba and Bishenyi and key informants
having roles in the exploitation of the stated wetlands. 103 people were selected in Bishenyi
wetland located in Kamonyi District in the central plateaus of the country.

The other 104 respondents also were randomly selected in Bahimba wetland located in Rulindo
District in the highlands of the country.
 30

c) Administration of the Questionnaire

A semi-structured questionnaire was administrated to the random selected study population in a

farmer survey involved farmers working in the selected wetlands. It was mainly focusing on
exposure, sensitivity and capacity of maize growers in wetlands towards adaptation of impacts of
climate change and variability and how they managed to build resilience to sustain food security
when climate related threats occur in the study areas.

3.3.3. Interviews

Semi-structured interview was used to understand maize farmers’ and authorities’ perceptions
towards climate change and variability impacts focusing on what kinds of climatic hazards and
frequencies, climate-related shocks, questions related changes in rainfall, temperature, droughts
and floods, coping strategies and how they can be improved. This allowed respondents to discuss
and raise issues which have not considered while designing the questions for interviews. Face to
face interviews with key informants was organized particularly for local government agronomists,
environmental managers and cooperative committee members to capture their views, observations
and experiences in relation to research problem.

3.4. Data Analysis

Several methods of data analysis were used. Responses were organized into categories based on the
information affiliation. These include statistical analysis of socio-economic data
(primary/secondary) by using SPSS, Microsoft Excel for climate data analysis and for visual
display of information; and Geographic Information System (GIS) and ArcGIS 10.2 software for
mapping the sites of study. Tables, graphs, and other quantitative information were interpreted with
Microsoft excel, SPSS and other facilities. The qualitative data analysis was based on content
analysis of information from structured interviews organized with agronomists and key informants
in the areas of study. It helped in reclassifying concerned stakeholders. Furthermore, the analysis
focused on the information flow in benefits and initiative prospects in adapting climate change and
variability in wetlands where crop development is being practiced and for food security
improvement and sustainability. Finally, tables, figures and photos were interpreted to help
formulating conclusions and recommendations for climate change and variability adaptation and
sustainable food security.
 31

CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

This chapter comprises two major sections which are results and discussion.

4.1. Research Findings

This chapter comprises the analysis of data followed by a discussion of the research findings. The
findings are related to the research questions and objectives that guided the study. Data were
analyzed to assess and describe the impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Wetland
Agricultural Production and Food Security in Rwanda: Case Study of maize production in Bahimba
and Bishenyi wetlands. Data were obtained using a semi-structured interview and self-administered
questionnaires was completed by 200 maize farmers (n=200) and 7 key informants as a sample size
of the study. Collected data were analyzed by using SPSS version 20 (IBM statistics) and Excel for
visual display of information. Specific objectives oriented the content analysis, descriptive analysis
and statistical analysis. Tables and charts were used to identify frequencies and percentages of
responses given to the entire questionnaire.

All respondents answered all questions thus percentages reported correspond to the total number of
respondents completed the individual questionnaire. The majority of respondents (55.3%) were
females while 44.7% were males. 60.5% of respondents were aged between 31 and 55 years that
falls into the category of economically active age and 81.8% of respondents were married. 56%
attended primary school and around 81.6% had a family size of one to five household members.
The analysis results showed that agricultural sector is mainly made up of the people with lower
level of formal education. During cropping season, 47.5% of interviewed maize farmers use
purchased manure while 47% use their own manure from livestock. The study also found that
53.9% of surveyed farmers use inputs from MINAGRI, 30.6% from agro-dealers.

In addition, group discussion and interviews was also done by applying the method of thematic
Analysis to assess different ideas from 7 persons represented two cooperatives (COVAMABA and
UBUMWE).
 32

Group discussion and interview focused on variables including the impacts of climate change and
variability on maize production in the study area, adaption strategies to climate change and
variability to improve maize production and sustain food security in the districts of Rulindo and
Kamonyi, the constraints to the implementation of the adaptation strategies and lastly the possible
solutions to enable farmers better coping with climate change and variability impacts.

4.1.1. Status of Climate Change and Variability in Bahimba and Bishenyi Wetlands

4.1.1.1. Trend of Temperature Patterns

Temperature variations in the study areas (Fig.7&8) are closely similar with temperature variations
in other areas of the country. Temperature trend lines in Bahimba and Bishenyi wetlands indicate
the similar increase in mean temperature since 1981 to 2014 as seen in other locations of the
country. In Bahimba wetland the average maximum temperature was 18.40oC whereas the
minimum was 17.55oC since 1981 to 2014, making an increase of 0.85oC

Figure 12: Trend of Temperature for Bahimba Wetland between 1981 and 2014 (RMA, 2016)
 33

For Bishenyi wetland the maximum average temperature was 21.08oC whereas the minimum was
19.97oC from 1981 to 2014 making an increase of 1.10C.

Figure 13: Trend of Temperature for Bishenyi Wetland between 1981 and 2014 (RMA, 2016)

The increase in mean temperature in Bishenyi wetland is due to the fact that is located in central
plateaus where it is hotter that in the highlands that also confirms more droughts frequencies in
Central plateaus than in highlands. These mean temperature increases confirm climate change in
Bahimba and Bishenyi as the Global mean temperature increase was at .850C since 1980-2012
what is thought to be an evidence of climate change that alters climate conditions worldwide.
These findings also confirm the observations of maize farmers in both wetlands that maize
production has been adversely affected due temperature increases.

4.1.1.2. Trend of Rainfall Patterns

The analysis results (Fig. 9 & 10) indicate abnormal rainfall fluctuations where a little decrease is
found in Bahimba while a little increase was noted in Bishenyi since 1981 to 2014. For Bahimba
wetland, the amount of rain decreased from 990 mm to 960mm making a decrease of -30mm since
1081 to 2014.
 34

Figure 14: Trend of Rainfall for Bahimba Wetland between 1981 and 2014 (RMA, 2016)

While for Bishenyi wetland, the amount of rain increased from 820mm to 870 mm since 1981-
2014 making an increase of 50 mm.

Figure 15: Trend of Rainfall for Bishenyi Wetland between 1981 and 2014 (RMA, 2016)
 35

This is the abnormal changes considering geographical location of Bahimba wetland where more
rains were expected than in Bishenyi wetland located in central plateaus of the country. Maize
farmers and agronomists from both wetlands have attributed these rainfall anomalies to poor
performance of maize that also have led to food insecurity. Due to these observed rain shortage and
abnormal variations, total maize yields has been reducing due to the extended dry spells especially
in 2013 and 2014 for Bishenyi wetland and in 2015 for Bahimba wetland. Particularly maize
farmers in Bahimba reported to have faced with maize poor germination where farmers had to
replace non-germinated seeds due to early cessation of rain that led to poor growth of maize crop
and hence ears per maize crop reduced from 2 to 1.

4.1.2. Perceptions of Maize Farmers on Climate Change and Variability

The survey found that 100% and 96% of maize farmers from Bahimba and Bishenyi wetlands
respectively have noticed a change in climate conditions over the past 30 years. Maize producers
have experienced with the late sets of rainy seasons characterized by irregular, heavy, shorter and
early cessation of rainfall that has adversely affected maize crop performance. They also had felt
increased warmer weathers and extended dry spells which had caused low soil moisture, poor
germination and maize crop water stress and high proliferation of pest and diseases. According to
maize farmers from both wetlands, this change in climate has led to maize poor harvests and food
insecurity not only for maize growers but the entire communities surrounding the surveyed
wetlands. Figure 12 below depicts farmers’ views on climate change and variability over the past
30 years in the surveyed wetlands.

With regard to changes in temperature, 97% of the farmers in Bishenyi and 93.3% in Bahimba
wetlands have been feeling the increase in temperature, for the of rainfall, the situation is worse
than in Bahimba where 87 % of farmers in Bishenyi have been experiencing delayed rainy season
while in Bahimba is 74% only. In addition, 90.9% of maize farmers in Bishenyi have experiencing
the erratic rains while in Bahimba, was 81% of farmers. Concerning heavy rains and floods, maize
farmers from Bahimba are more vulnerable than farmers from Bishenyi wetland with 92.9 and
74.2% of farmers in Bahimba while in Bishenyi are 61% and 59% of respondents. Above 70% of
respondents from both wetlands have been experiencing a delayed rainy season. With regards to
droughts, Bishenyi farmers are more vulnerable than Bahimba where 81% of farmers were affected
with prolonged droughts while in Bahimba it was 75.5%.
 36

Figure 16: Actual Climate Conditions in Bahimba and Bishenyi Wetlands (Field Survey,
March 2016)

These disparities were due to different geographical locations of the two wetlands where Bahimba
is located in highlands while Bishenyi is located in central plateaus of the country. There is a need
of adequate adaptation strategies to facilitate farmers improving maize production to sustain food
security.

4.1.3. Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Maize Production

This section discusses the impacts of climate changes which have caused the poor yields of maize
that has led to food insecurity for maize farmers in Bahimba and Bishenyi wetlands and the
communities particularly Tumba and Mbogo sectors.

4.1.3.1. Effects of Droughts on Maize Crop

Results of the assessment of effects of droughts to maize production in the two wetlands (Figure
13) revealed that between 97% and 99.5% of maize farmers faced with increase in maize diseases
and pests, crop wilting, germination failure and reduced production cycle. 69% of farmers had a
problem of maize premature ripening due to droughts that caused crop water stress hence affected
maize crop growth.
 37

Maize farmers reported that droughts have led to reduced maize yields, poor quality of harvest,
increased production cost that also adversely has affected food security in the community.

Figure 17: Effects of Droughts on Maize Crop (Field Survey, March 2016)

4.1.3.2. Effects of Floods on Maize Crop

The floods are more serious in Bahimba than in Bishenyi wetland due to unprotected watersheds
and accidented relief that intensify run-offs during rainy seasons hence causing overflow of
Bahimba wetland and floods in wetlands. Results (figure 14) showed that most of maize farmers
(84%) from both wetlands reported that floods have been destroying irrigation channels with
siltation and 96 % experienced crop injuries due to floods mainly in Bahimba wetlands. 94% of
farmers from both wetlands faced with germination failure and 50.3% had a prolonged production
cycle due to poor maize growth. 19% of farmers also have noted an increase in diseases mostly
fungi like leaf spot and stalk rot due to persistent floods particularly in Bahimba wetlands.

Floods have been causing poor yields of maize as they disturb crop growth. Most corn hybrids can
only survive for 24 to 48 hours under water, with smaller seedlings suffering the most damage.
Flooding damages maize crop biochemically and by impairing mitochondria, it causes release of
free radicals which damage cell membranes. Flooding also causes oxygen starvation and shifts the
plant's metabolic processes to anaerobic fermentation.
 38

At the minimum, flooding reduces the plant’s metabolic rate, making seedlings more sensitive to
disease and insects. In fact, many disease-causing fungi such as Pythium thrive in standing water.

Figure 18: Effects of Floods on Maize Crop (Field Survey, March 2016)

The floods are more serious in Bahimba than in Bishenyi wetland due to unprotected watersheds
and accidented relief that intensify run-offs during rainy seasons hence causing overflow of
Bahimba wetland and floods in wetlands.

Figure 19: A Photo Showing a Flooding Phenomenon in Bahimba Wetland (Author, 2016)
 39

4.1.3.3. Effects of Diseases and Pests on Maize Production

The study also assessed the effect of diseases and pests on maize production. Most of maize
farmers (100%) from Bahimba wetland faced with a reduction of maize yields and 96% of
Bishenyi farmers also had the same challenge. With regards to maize harvest quality, 98% of maize
farmers in Bahimba and 96% of farmers in Bishenyi have been facing with poor quality of kernels.
In addition, 90.9% of maize farmers from Bahimba wetland and 89% from Bishenyi wetlands have
invested in purchase of pesticides to control diseases and pests. New diseases resistant varieties are
needed as the observed increasing temperature in the surveyed wetlands might cause higher
proliferation of pests which can end up in serious damage and postharvest losses in the near future.

Figure 20: Major Consequences of Diseases and Pests on Maize Production

(Field Survey, March 2016)

Results showed that 98%, 90% and 96% of Bahimba maize farmers have been facing with maize
streak virus, worms, rust and leaf blight and in Bishenyi wetland, 99% of farmers had a challenge
of damage of worms, 90% faced with maize stalk borers and rust while 60.8% faced with leaf
blight. Stalk rot and physiological disorders affected maize production in both wetlands. 84% of
farmers from Bahimba had a problem of gray leaf spot. Maize farmers have been applying
pesticides to reduce impact of diseases and pests on maize production. Table 1 below depicts major
diseases and pests which threaten maize crop in the surveyed wetlands.
 40

Table 1: Major Diseases and Pests of Maize Crop

Diseases and Pests Bahimba Wetland Bishenyi Wetland

Maize Streak Virus 98% 41%
Maize Stalk Borer 43% 90%
Worms 96% 99%
Rust 90% 90%
Silk Fly 11.1% 14%
Green Stinkbugs 7.1% 18%
Birds 98% 63%
Physiological Disorders 40.8% 61%
Gray Leaf Spot 84% 53.2%
Pythium Stalk Rot 45% 64.9%
Leaf Blight 96% 60.8%
Bacterial Stalk Rot 58% 54.8%
Sources: Field Survey (March 2016) and REMA (2011)

4.1.3.4. Effects of Climate Changes on Maize Yields

Apart from climate conditions, the study also has considered other factors contributing to maize
production include but not limited to fertile and size of land, quantity and quality of seeds,
inorganic and organic fertilizers, and disease and pest control. Analysis of maize yields data (figure
17) presents a reduction in annual maize yields per unit of hectare.

For the season A (2014/2015), farmers in Bahimba had experienced poor germination due to early
cessation of rainfall at beginning of season A and had to redo seeding that had caused reduction of
maize yields where the maize yield per 1 hectare had reduced by -17% in 2015 while for Bishenyi
wetland, maize yield per hectare had reduced by -41 % in 2013 and -51% in 2014 due to extended
dry spells. On the hand in Bishenyi wetland, the maize yields increased by 77% due to favorable
climate conditions in 2012 while for Bahimba increased by 10%, 27% and 7% in 2012, 2013 and
2016 respectively. Reduction in maize yields might have been caused by the observed impacts of
climate change and variability.
 41

Figure 21: Trends of Maize Yields in the Last Five Years (2011 – 2015)

Though there was no reduction in agricultural inputs that could affect maize yields, climate
changes might have been the major factor of the reduction of annual maize yields. In addition, even
if maize yields were a bit better in some years, farmers showed dissatisfaction with the obtained
harvests as they expected more if climate conditions cloud be more conducive. Table 2 below
presents the types of farming inputs applied and the annual maize yields change.
 42

Table 2: Relation between agricultural Inputs and Maize Yields

Years Surface Quantity Quantity Quantity Urea( Quantity of Quantity Changes

Cultivat of Seeds of Manure of DAP Tons) Pesticides of Maize in
ed (Ha) (tons) Applied Yields Annual
(Tons) (liters)
(Tons ) Yields
(Tons)
(%)

2011 50 0.438 600 0.5 0.25 4 79 -

2012 54 0.510 700 0.6 0.3 4 140 77.2

Bishenyi Wetland

2013 54 0.5 700 0.6 0.3 4 83 -41

2014 54 0.5 700 0.6 0.3 4 69 -51

2015 58 0.6 900 0.8 0.4 4 140 0

2011 320 6.5 559 9.3 4.7 100 374 -

Bahimba Wetland

2012 320 6.3 532 10.3 5.1 72 411.4 10

2013 320 5.8 514.2 14.75 7.4 75 523.6 21.3

2014 320 5.7 575.1 17.9 7.96 120 561 7.15

2015 320 7.5 562.3 14.5 5.3 82 467.5 -17

Source: Field Survey (March 2016)

4.1.4. Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Food Security

This section discusses the findings on effects of climate change and variability to food security
among maize farmers from the surveyed wetlands.

4.1.4.1. Relationship between Maize Yields and Food Security

Famers’ vulnerability to food insecurity has been assessed to help in identifying resilience
measures that can reduce impact of climate-related threats on food security. Results revealed that
when maize harvests were reduced, food security was adversely affected within households.
 43

The majority of farmers form Bahimba wetland (95%) had a reduced number of meals per day,
97% had reduced quantity of meals par day, 80.8% had poor quality of meals, 97% faced with an
increased food prices at markets and 72 % had noticed an increased rate of robbery of food and
livestock in the community. For Bishenyi maize farmers, the situation food security is a bit better
due to the fact that Bishenyi wetland is located nearby Kigali town where farmers can get more off-
farm activities. However, 52% of Bishenyi farmers had a reduced number of meals per day, 96%
had insufficient quantity of meals per day, 81% had poor quality of food, 61% noted malnutrition
cases in the community and 65% faced with higher food prices at market and have also remarked
an increased movement of people to towns in search of casual works. Moreover, some social
conflicts were caused by food shortage due to reduced maize harvests. Table 4 below shows the
indicators characterized food insecurity for maize farmers from the surveyed wetlands.

Table 3: Indicators of Food Insecurity among Maize Farmers

Effects Bahimba Wetland Bishenyi Wetland

Reduced Number of Meals per Day 95% 52%
Reduced Quantity of Meals 97% 96%
Poor Quality of Meals 80.8% 81%
Increased Family Conflicts due to Food Shortage 14.1% 16%
Increased Cases of Malnutrition 20% 61%
High Robbery of Food and Livestock 72% 19.2%
Rural Exodus to Green Pastures 7% 65%
High Prices of Food at Markets 97% 65%

Field Survey (March 2016)

4.1.4.2. Maize Farmers Resilience Strategies against Food Insecurity

Farmers from both wetlands started adopting resilience initiatives to reduce vulnerability to food
insecurity when occurs in the community. Results (figure 19) showed that the majority of farmers
90% from Bahimba and 89% from Bishenyi have been participating in group saving initiatives,
91% from Bishenyi and 85.5% had accessed off-farm activities and casual works especially
Bishenyi farmers who are closer with the City of Kigali.
 44

At least 64% of Bahimba wetland and 59% of Bishenyi farmers have been rearing livestock and
68.7% from Bahimba and the minority in Bishenyi (44.4%) grow other crops such Irish potatoes,
vegetable, banana, cassava, beans and soybeans as complement to maize production to enhance
food security. Though fewer maize farmers participate in community food store (Bishenyi 31% and
Bahimba 605), the majority of farmers keep food surpluses at home. In both wetlands, less maize
farmers (Bahimba 43% and Bishenyi do crop mulching for upland crops. Storing food reserves at
home might not be properly stored due to lack of suitable facilities and might also be more exposed
to pests as well as robbery.

Figure 22: Farmers’ Initiatives in Reducing Vulnerability to Food Insecurity (Field Survey,
2016)

4.1.5. Existing Adaptation Strategies among Maize Farmers

The study has investigated the adaptation practices that maize farmers have been using to reduce
vulnerability to climate change and variability impacts.

4.1.5.1. Adaptation Strategies to Droughts

The study has assessed adaptation strategies that farmers were using to cope with climate change
and variability effects. For case of droughts, 88% of Bishenyi and 93% of Bahimba farmers use
pesticides to control insects.
 45

In both wetlands, the minority of maize farmers, 6% in Bahimba and 41% in Bishenyi, were using
animal manure and compost which could be one of the suitable adaptation strategy for droughts as
the more organic matter in the soil the more moisture retention capacity of the soil. Bishenyi
farmers have been having access to early maturing maize varieties where 95% of farmers reported
the use of these varieties while in Bahimba was just 26.3%. Maize farmers in both wetlands use
drought tolerant varieties (95% in Bahimba and 51% in Bishenyi) and the majority of farmers have
been using small irrigation schemes (97% in Bishenyi and 73% in Bahimba) to adapt prolonged
droughts.

Figure 23: Adaptation Strategies (Field Survey, March 2016)

4.1.5.2. Adaptation Strategies to Floods

For the case of floods, 100% of maize farmers from Bahimba and above 80% from Bishenyi
implemented drainage channels and river banks protection but due to unprotected watersheds for
both wetlands, heavy rains have caused floods which have been destroying crops and irrigation
infrastructures. There a need of both watersheds protection and improved drainage systems.
 46

Figure 24: Adaptation Strategies to Floods (Field Survey, March 2016)

4.1.6. Maize Farmers Constraints in Implementing Adaptation Strategies

The study assessed maize farmer constraints which limit the implementation of coping strategies to
climate change and variability. Considering the major constraints for adaptation, between 77% to
100% of both Bahimba and Bishenyi farmers had challenges of limited knowledge and skills about
climate change and variability, lack of capacity to invest in irrigation infrastructures, expensive
farm inputs (improved seeds, fertilizers, pesticides), lack of resistant maize varieties, poor maize
value chain and limited access to banks credits. In addition, 99% of Bahimba farmers presented the
need of improved maize value chain and 89.9% claimed for the lack of access to bank credits while
94% from Bishenyi farmers claimed for the insufficient subsidy of agricultural inputs.

Little percentage of farmers proposed agricultural insurance that can be helpful when climate-related
threats completely damaged the whole field of crop. These constraints block farmers to improve
maize production and food security. Table 5 below illustrates the maize farmers’ constraints to cope
with climate change and variability impacts.
 47

Table 4: Farmers Constraints in Implementing Adaptation Strategies

Constraints Bahimba Bishenyi

Wetland Wetland

Limited Knowledge and Skills about Climate Change Effects 100% 97%

Lack of Capacity to Invest in Irrigation Infrastructures 98% 100%

Expensive Farm Inputs (Improved Seeds, Fertilizers, Pesticides) 74.7% 98%

Lack of Resistant Maize Varieties 98% 88%

Poor Maize Value Chain 99% 59%

Lack of Loan Security for Bank Credits 89.9% 65%

Absence of Agricultural Insurance 36.4% 45%

Insufficient Subsidy for Farming Inputs 24.2% 94%

Field Survey (March 2016)

4.1.7. Proposed Adaptation Strategies to Improve Maize Production

The study assessed farmers’ views on major sustainable solutions which maize farmers can
implement to reduce the impact of climate change and variability. Findings in table 7 show that
maize farmers between 90%-100% from the surveyed wetlands need an increased support for
irrigation infrastructures, drought and disease resistant maize varieties, improved water streams
management, affordable agricultural inputs, Increased extension service on climate information sharing at
local level, strengthened group savings (VSLs), and increased access to off-farm activities. In addition,
Farmers also proposed an improved maize value chain, increased access to farm credits, agricultural fund
and crop insurance. Table 6 below presents maize farmers proposed suitable adaptation strategies to be
adequately supported to increase maize yields hence reduce vulnerability to food insecurity.
 48

Table 5: Proposed Coping Strategies to Improve Maize Production

Possible Solutions Bahimba Wetland Bishenyi Wetland

Increased Public Support for Irrigation Infrastructures 98% 100%

Drought Resistant Maize Varieties 100% 98%
Disease and Pest Resistant Varieties 99% 96%
River Banks Protection 100% 87%
Affordable Agricultural Inputs 100% 100%
Adequate Maize Value Chain 100% 59%
Strengthening Groups Saving and Loaning Schemes 100% 95%
Setting up a Public Agricultural Fund 44.4% 79%
Increased Access to Farm Credits 100% 79%
Improve Extension Services on Climate Change Effects 100% 90%
Affordable Farming Insurances 40.4% 65%
Creation of more Off-Farm Activities 100% 81%
Source: Field Survey (March 2016)

As came out in group discussion with agronomists and farmer cooperative committees, after any
climatic chock or hazard, affected people start thinking how to deal with the threats. Focus group
discussion provided views around adaptation strategies to climate change and variability so as to
improve maize production and sustain food security in their communities. Key informants and
agronomists presented that they have chosen to grow maize only in season A where rain is believed
to more favorable and not to grow shorter crops which are more vulnerable to floods but preferred
to grow these crops in the seasons B and C where small irrigation is easier than irrigation maize.
The group discussion has also suggested suitable adaptation measures such as looking for resistant
varieties, increased access to reliable climate information as earlier as possible including early
warning, adequate irrigation infrastructures, improved processing and storage facilities, water shed
management, fair market, strengthened voluntary group saving and loaning (VSLs), affordable
appropriate pesticides, diversification of crops, livestock rearing and creation of more off-farms
activities.
 49

4.2. Discussion
Climatic change and variability is one the big challenges for agricultural production especially for
smallholder farmers in developing countries. The overall objective of this study was to assess the
impacts of climate change and variability on maize production in wetlands and food security in
Rwanda focusing on Bahimba wetland in Rulindo District and Bishenyi wetland in Kamonyi
District. It was found that more women (55.4%) are engaged in maize farmers than men (44.7%) as
also was reported by EICV (2012) that the agriculture sector is worked mainly by women (82%)
and also MINAGRI (2010) found that the majority of women farmers have lowest levels of
schooling and illiteracy rate of 23.3%. This explains the limited capacity of maize farmers to
combat climate change and variability effects coupled with women limited time for improved
agriculture as rural women are also fully responsible for domestic work.

4.2.1. Fluctuation of Rainfall and Temperature in the Study Area

By responding the research questions, the study assessed the extent to which rainfall and mean
temperature have fluctuated over the period of past 30 years both for the research areas and for
other regions of the country to accurately determine the status climate change and variability in
study areas and for the entire country. Serious floods have been more frequent in Bahimba wetland
due the observed lack of adequate drainage infrastructures coupled with the absence watershed
management. Consequently, maize harvests have been reducing and giving unsatisfied harvests that
also worsened food insecurity for the maize farmers.

In assessing the rainfall and temperature in the study areas, data from country major weather
stations of Kamembe, Kanombe, Gisenyi and Rubona were also considered to supplement the
findings of rainfall and temperature changes in the areas of study. The interpretation of findings of
rainfall and temperature from these weather stations indicated significant increase in temperature
over the past 30 years and show the changeability in rainfall over the past 30 years similarly with
the findings of rainfall and temperature in all regions of the country including the study areas.
 50

As also found by RMA (2014), results have revealed a continuous increase in mean temperature.
At Kigali Airport Weather station, the maximum average temperature was 22.2oC while the
minimum was 20.2oC making an increase of +2oC since 1971 to 2015(appendix 2); at Rubona
station, the maximum average temperature was 19.79oC while the minimum was 18.90oC making
an increase of +0.89oC since 1958 to 2015(appendix2); at Kamembe station, the maximum average
temperature was 20.9oC while the minimum was 19.7oC making an increase of +1.2oC since 1957
to 2015(Appendix2); at Gisenyi, the maximum average temperature was 20.55oC while the
minimum as 19.95oC and the increment was +0.6oC since 1975 till 2015 (appendix 2). These
increases in temperature putting Rwanda in alarming situation as the increase of mean temperature
worldwide is +0.85°C since 1980-2012 (IPCC, 2014: page 3 of the summary report).

In complimentarily with Mutabazi (2010), rainfall analysis results (appendix3) revealed that at
Kanombe station, rainfall has decreased from 1,010 mm to 950 mm since 1971 to 2015 making a
decrease of -60mm. At Gisenyi station trend line (appendix 2) shows that the rainfall amount has
increased from 1,150 mm to 1,240 mm since 1976 till 2015 making an increase of 90 mm
(appendix 3). At Kamembe station, trend line indicates that the amount of rainfall has decreased
from 1420 mm to 1360 mm since 1971 up to 2015 making a decrease of 23.1 mm (appendix 3). At
Rubona station trend line indicated that the amount of rain had decreased from 1320 mm to
1040mm from 1985 to 2015 making a decrease of -240 mm (appendix 3). The rainfall variability
was attributed to poor performance of agriculture and food insecurity in Rwanda (RMS, 2012).

Moreover, results showed that mean temperature has tremendously increased in the two surveyed
wetlands and in other parts of the country considering analysis results found with the weather
stations of Kanombe, Gisenyi, Kamembe and Rubona and rainfall has highly fluctuated with some
decreases in all regions except in Gisenyi where the results show a slight increase. Particularly for
the study areas, rainfall has slightly decreased in Bahimba while slight increase was found for
Bishenyi Wetland. By using climate data that are specific for Tumba sector having a large part of
wetland and specific climate data for Runda sector also has a larger part of Bishenyi wetland, the
study found that in Bahimba there has been increase in mean temperature (+0.850C) and a decrease
in amount of rainfall with -30mm while in Bishenyi wetland mean temperature increased by +1.10C
with slight increase in the amount of rainfall of +50mm since 1981-2014.
 51

The observed changes in mean temperature prove the increased warming and unreliable rains in the
surveyed wetlands which caused maize yields reduction and consequently worsened food
insecurity in the areas of study. Research findings are in complementarity with findings of RMA
(2012) where it was found that the mean temperature in Rwanda has increased from 20.20C to
21.90C for Kigali weather station with a total increase of +2 0C and 19.10C to 21.10C with a total
increase of +10C for Kamembe weather station for a period of 40 years since 1971 up to 2011 that
places Rwanda in alarming case as the increase in mean temperature exceeds +0.850C at global
level which has caused global warming (IPCC, 2014). The current findings also complement the
findings of REMA (2010) where found that the annual average rainfall totals decreased from 1020
mm to 920 mm with a drop of number of rain days from 148 to 124 from 1971 to 2009 and 146
days between 1971-1990 to 131 days for the period of 1991-2009.

4.2.2. Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Maize Production and Food Security
Apart from poor rainfall and increased temperature, maize farmers from both wetlands also had
faced with challenges of extended dry spells and floods events especially in Bahimba wetland
which had caused maize poor yields. Group discussion with key informants and agronomists
converged they views on the reduction of maize yields as consequence of late sets of rainy seasons,
erratic rainfall, floods, droughts, water shortage, increased warmer weathers, pest and diseases
mainly maize streak virus, cornstalk borer, Leaf blight, rust and worms, among others. It was noted
that food insecurity was caused by reduction of in maize production in terms of daily number,
quantity and quality of meals.

Considering similarities in climate changes in both wetlands (Fig. 12), the findings revealed that
90.9% and 81% of farmers in Bishenyi and Bahimba respectively have experienced the challenge of
erratic rainfall while 81% in Bishenyi and 75% in Bahimba respectively experienced prolonged dry
spells. Regarding the water for irrigation, 91% of farmers in Bahimba and 83% of farmers in
Bishenyi wetlands have noted the dry up rivers. In both wetlands 97% of farmers in Bishenyi and
93% from Bahimba have noticed increased temperature consider the climate before the past 30
years. The maize farmers from both Bahimba and Bishenyi wetlands have linked these climatic
changes to the poor maize harvests and damage of crops both in wetland and upland crops.
 52

These finds complement Mutabazi (2010) results where he found that temperature has increased
with high frequency of warm days exceeding 30°C. He also found that the number of annual rain
days decreased that negatively impacted agricultural productivity as crops requires the quantity of
water within the given number of days. He also noted that the number of dry spells during rainy
season increased and affected poor performance of crops due to the late set of rainfall and/or early
rainfall cessation during rainy season also caused poor performance of agriculture productivity. For
the case of disparities (Fig.16), analysis results showed that famers in Bishenyi are more vulnerable
to erratic rainfall (90.9%) and droughts (81%) while farmers in Bahimba are more vulnerable to
heavy rains (92.9%) and floods (74.2%). These disparities are due to fact that Bahimba is located in
highlands part of Rwanda where heavier rainfall and floods are more frequent than in central
plateaus of the country where Bishenyi wetland is located.

In addition, farmers also reported the effects of diseases and pests on maize yields (Table 1) where
the majority of farmers in Bahimba wetland 98%, 96, 90%, 84 and 58% reported that maize
production was also affected by maize streak virus, leaf blight, worms, rust, gray leaf sport and
bacterial stalk rot respectively while in Bishenyi most of farmer 90%, 99%, 63% and 60.8% also
have reported corn stalk borer, rust, worms, birds and rats and leaf blight respectively as also found
by REMA (2011). Analysis of data has revealed that maize farmers from both wetlands do not
adequately apply pesticides due to lack of required capacity to afford appropriate pesticides. These
diseases and pests also have affected total maize harvests. Farmers’ support increment with
resistant varieties and appropriate pesticides at affordable prices are needed to sustain maize
production and food security.

As a consequence of abnormal changes in rainfall and temperature as well as diseases and pests,
maize harvests and food security were adversely affected. The results show that in Bishenyi
wetland, maize harvests reduced by 41% in 2013 and 51% in 2014 while in Bahimba wetland
maize yields reduced by 17% in 2015 as also found by Matarira and al. (1995) that even though
irrigation can boost maize production, the yields are lower under climate change conditions than
under normal climate.
 53

Due to reduction in maize harvests, food security directly has been affected where 37.5% of
respondents reported the reduced number of meals per day, 96.5% reported a reduced quantity of
meals and 80.8% remarked poor quality of meals 80.9% that complement findings of Christine
Uzayisenga (2014) where she found that higher temperatures reduced the yields of desirable
crops and caused a higher proliferation of weeds and pests. She also noted that the changes in
precipitation regime increased probability of low crop production in short and long term and
threatened food security. Group discussion also came up with the key challenges in implementing
adaptation strategies include lack access on reliable and timely climate information, lack of early
warnings, lack of adequate irrigation infrastructures, low access to financial credits due to lack of
loan security, absence of new drought and disease resistant varieties, lack of early maturing
varieties insufficient animal manure and compost, poor maize value chain, absence of crop
insurances as well as low ownership among farmers.

4.2.3. Sustainable Adaptation Practices to Improve Maize Production and Food Security
Concerning adaptation of climate changes, the study assessed the possible adaptation strategies to
enable farmers increase resilience capacity to the observed impacts of climate change and
variability essentially late set of rainy seasons, floods, droughts and diseases and pests, among
others. This also was assessed by Mizina et al. (1999) and Reilly and Schimmelpfennig (1999)
where they emphasized that adaptation is an important component of any policy response to
climate change in agriculture. The study suggested possible adaptation and resilience strategies for
maize farmers in Bahimba and Bishenyi wetlands to better cope with the observed impacts of
climate change and variability to improve maize production as well as sustain food security in their
communities. They also indicated that agricultural adaptation options are grouped in four main
categories that include technological developments, government programs and insurance, farm
production practices, and farm financial management.

Moreover, group discussion participants believed that if these strategies are implemented and
adequately supported by all concerned stakeholders the maize production will be increased hence
improve and sustain food security for the entire community as also had been suggested by Gepts
(2014) where he indicated that adaptation strategies should be short and long-term changes to
human activities in response to the impacts of climate changes.
 54

He also mentioned that agricultural adaptation requires cost-effective investments in water

infrastructure, emergency preparation for and response to extreme weather events, development of
resilient crop varieties that tolerate temperature and precipitation stresses, and improved land use
and management practices. Thus, there are numerous opportunities to realize climate change
adaptation as without adaptation, climate change and variability is problematic for agricultural
production, agricultural economies and communities but with adaptation in practice, vulnerability
to climate change and variability impacts can be reduced at all levels. Also, study has found that
adequate investment in new resistant maize varieties, early maturing varieties, access to reliable
climate information including early warnings, watershed management especially for Bahimba,
suitable irrigation infrastructures specifically for Bishenyi, improved maize value chain, livestock
rearing as well as strengthened group saving and loans initiatives (Ibimina), were highlighted as the
major solutions to impacts of the observed changing climate.
 55

CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

This chapter presents conclusions derived from the study and subsequent recommendations. It also
highlights each specific objective and its findings. The study has concerned with the impacts of
climate change and variability on maize in wetlands agricultural production and its effect on food
security in Rwanda precisely in wetlands located in highlands and central plateaus of Rwanda. The
study was based on field observation, primary data collected from 200 maize farmers and 7 key
informants from two wetlands of Bahimba and Bishenyi and secondary from Rwanda
Meteorological Agency and numerous related scientific publications. The main objective of this
research was to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on maize production in
wetlands and it connection to food security precisely in Bahimba wetland located in Rulindo
District and Bishenyi wetland located in Kamonyi District. Specific objectives of the study were to
evaluate the current patterns and trends of rainfall and temperature in the study areas; assess the
impacts of climate change and variability on maize production and food security in the study areas,
and identify sustainable adaptation practices for better coping with climate change and variability
impacts on maize production in wetlands and food security in the study areas.

5.1. Hypotheses Verification

Firstly, going through the findings to verify the hypotheses, it is clear that there has been a
remarkable change in annual rainfall and annual mean temperature within a period of the past 30
years in the areas of study. Since 1981 to 2015, mean temperature in Bahimba increased by +0.85
0
C while in Bishenyi Wetland increased by +1.1 0C which indicates climate change in the research
areas. Considering the situation in other parts of the country, also increases in mean temperature
were significantly remarked that confirms climate change in Rwanda. Regarding variability in
average temperature in the study areas, temperature chart line indicates that some months have
higher mean temperatures and other months with lower mean temperatures that shows climate
variability in research areas and even in the whole country.
 56

Concerning the changes in the amount of rainfall, rainfall trend line indicates that the amount of
rain increased by 50mm while for Bahimba decreased by -30mm. It has also noted that in other
regions of Rwanda, rainfalls significantly fluctuated either increasing or decreasing that proves
climate change and variability in the Rwanda. This implies that maize production and food security
were adversely affected in Bahimba and Bishenyi wetlands as result of climate change and
variability.

Secondly, abnormal changes in rainfall and mean temperature patterns have led to poor
performance of maize in the study areas and this has significantly contributed to food insecurity
among local farmers. The analysis revealed that the majority of respondents above 90% have been
facing with climatic hazards include droughts, floods, water stress, germination failure, wilting,
increased diseases and pests that caused reduction of maize yields per hectare at 41% and 51% in
2013 and 2014 respectively for Bishenyi wetland and 17% reduction per hectare in 2015 for
Bahimba wetland that has worsened food insecurity among maize farmers and communities.

Thirdly findings for food security (table 4) revealed there has been a reduction in number of meals
per day (73.5%) and reduction in quantity of meals (96.5%) and 80.9% reported a poor quality of
meals as a consequence of reduced maize harvests due to impacts of climate change and variability.
In addition, results showed that 81% of maize farmers have experienced the increase in prices of
food at markets. Food insecurity have caused social problems include the increased family
conflicts, cases of malnutrition, rural exodus towards green pastures/urban areas, high robbery of
food and livestock and higher prices of food at markets. Lastly, new resistant varieties of maize
associated with adaptation strategies lead to improved maize yields and sustainable food security
for maize growers where 99% of study population reported the need of new droughts tolerant and
early maturing maize varieties.

Findings showed that between 77% and 99% of maize farmers have limited knowledge and skills
about climate change and variability, low capacity to invest in irrigation infrastructures, insufficient
manure and compost, unprotected watersheds particularly for Bahimba wetland, lack of resistant
maize varieties, poor maize value chain and limited access to banks credits.
 57

5.2. Conclusion
Based on the study findings, Rwanda’s farmers, who are highly dependent on the rain-fed
agriculture, need early, reliable and adequate information on changing climate that is affecting their
crop harvests as well as food security. Analysis of rainfall and temperature in Rwanda and in the
areas of this study, have showed the abnormal fluctuations which farmers attribute to observed
poor performance of maize in the wetlands. Since 1975 to 2014, evaluation of temperature using
merged station satellite data revealed a steady increase in mean temperature for both Bahimba and
Bishenyi wetlands and the rainfall evaluation showed a steady decline in the amount of rainfall for
Bahimba wetland while a slight increase in rainfall has been noted for Bishenyi wetland. As
located in the central plateaus, Bishenyi wetland has been found to be warmer that Bahimba
wetland which is located in highlands. As consequence, Bishenyi wetland is more vulnerable to
droughts than Bahimba. While Bishenyi farmers use early maturing varieties to cope with droughts,
Bahimba farmers are threatened by floods due to hilly relief without watershed management and
poor drainage infrastructures in the wetland.

The fluctuations in rainfall and temperature patterns have been also noticed by the maize farmers.
They already noted a decline in maize production due to the changes in rainfall and temperature
patterns. Rainfall is key factor for the good performance of maize as poor rainfall can lead to crop
failure unless crops are under adequate irrigation with high control. Even though other factors such
as adequate fertilizer, improved seeds, timely planting and weeding, and pesticides can be equally
dependable for a good harvest, it has been found that adequate rainfall is a key factor and in
absence of it, no other inputs for maize will be of much value. The study has found that maize
farmers in Bahimba and Bishenyi wetland apply necessary fertilizers and other required inputs but
observed impacts of climate change and variability has caused reduction in maize harvests and this
has ended up in food insecurity in these areas of study.
 58

On the other hand, unpredictable heavy rainfall coupled with hilly terrain without watersheds
management in Bahimba has been a major source of flooding which destroys major crops grown in
wetlands. As consequence, maize harvests have been reducing in both wetlands but the situation is
worse in Bishenyi than Bahimba due to persistent shortage of water and diseases/pests damage.

Though some coping strategies are adopted by the maize farmers, farmers have limited capacity to
invest in adequate adaptation and resilience practices such irrigation infrastructure, new early
maturing and resistant varieties, food processing and storage, fair market prices, strengthening
group saving and investing in livestock among others. It can be concluded from the study and
observation that the decline in maize production in Bishenyi and Bahimba wetlands could be
highly linked to the fluctuated rainfall or higher temperatures. Variation in rainfall patterns has
been reversing the time for planting, germination and crop growth until ripening. High
temperatures could be the favorable condition to cause higher proliferation of diseases and pests.
Anticipatory measures as mentioned above can enhance the adaptability and resilience capacity.
Therefore, increased support on adaptation and resilience strategies will be vital for sustainable
maize production and for improved food security.

5.3. Recommendations

Although agriculture is very sensitive to climate change and variability impacts, it may be among
the most flexible of the societal systems sensitive to climate change. Based on findings and
observations at field, the study could suggest the following strategies to each stakeholder to ensure
increased farmers’ resilience capacity which include but not limited to:

a) Maize farmers organizations

Farmers may switch to different crop types or change to more drought- and disease-tolerant crops
associated with consistent crop scouting. Livestock and dairy production can be the other good
alternative to invest in to complement crops. Also, farmers may introduce irrigation systems in
areas where high temperatures and rates of evapo-transpiration lead to reduced levels of soil
moisture. Associate monoculture approach with diversified agricultural production systems to
better cope with adverse changes in climatic conditions as monoculture system is more vulnerable
to climate change and variability effects include prolonged droughts, floods, pests and diseases.
 59

b) Ministries and Government Agencies

 The government could support maize farmers with warehouse service, processing, and
affordable preservation facilities in overcoming postharvest losses and enable maize farmers
getting more profits from maize harvests.
 There is a need for government to establish and strengthen existing financial institutions that
are geared toward extending credit to small-scale farming cooperatives and facilitate cost-
effective marketing of their produce.
 Install advanced weather stations at sector levels in each district to help in monitoring and
research the climate at local level and develop early warning systems that provide reliable
weather predictions and seasonal forecasts
 Develop new maize crop varieties to increase the tolerance and suitability of plants to
temperature, water stresses, diseases and pests, and other relevant climatic conditions.
 Develop water management innovations including irrigation to address the risk of moisture
deficiencies and increasing frequency of droughts associated with climate change.
 Promote affordable farming insurance products and increased subsidy programs for many crops
to influence farm-level risk management strategies

c) Local Government Entities

 Adaptation measures to climate change such as watersheds management, erosion control,
agroforestry, climate resilient sustainable agriculture methods, inter-cropping, biodiversity
and collection of rainwater for agricultural should sufficiently be promoted and funded.
 Sensitize and support maize farmers to diversify source of household income in order to
address the risks of climate-related income loss.

d) Academic Institutions
 There is a need of periodic research on crops and livestock that are more tolerant to
pest/disease and drought conditions. Research on short-season high-yielding crop varieties
and livestock breeds will be of paramount importance to adaptation.
 Carry out research on crop pest and diseases, both those currently affecting the agricultural
production and those that may come about due to climate change, among others.
 60

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 61

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2[28 June 2016]
 i

APPENDICES
Appendix 1: Questionnaire for Maize Farmers in Wetlands: Bahimba and Kamonyi

Maize Farmers Survey Questionnaire

I. Identification
 Questionnaire number:
 Sector:
 Name of Cooperative:
 Name of Wetland:

1. Age 1=18-30; 2=31-55; 3=56 and above …...

2. Gender 1= Male 2= Female ……
3. Marital Status 1= Single 2= Married 3= widowed …….
4= divorced 5= Separated 6=other
4. Education Level 1= None 2= Primary 3= Secondary ……..

4=University 5= TVT 6= Other:

5. Family Size 1= 1-5 2= 6-10 3=More than 10 …….
6. Occupation 1= Agriculture 2= Business/ small 3=Salaried …….

4= Casual jobs trade

5= Other……………........

II. QUESTIONS

Section A: Questions related to Socio-economic Aspects

1. Land acquisition (How did you acquire your land?) ….

1= Inheritance 2= Purchased land 3= Rented

2.
4=How many plots (or fields)5=
Borrowed dodonation
you have/ cultivate currently?
6=Other (specify)…………… …….
3. What is the location (topographical) of your plots/ fields …..

1= Wetland 2= Upland 3=both sides

1= 0-1 field 2= 2-3 fields 3= more than 3
4. Beyond maize in wetland, what are other most types of crops do you grow?

5.

6.
 ii

1= Beans 2=Sorghum 3= Potatoes 4=Vegetables ……..

5=Soybeans 6= Cassava 7=Other (specify)……………

5. Where do you get manure?
1=My livestock 2=Compost 3=Both livestock and compost

4= Purchase 4=Other (specify)……………………………….

6. Do you have access to agricultural inputs?
1=Yes 2= No ………
7. If yes, what are the major agricultural inputs do you use?
1=Improved seeds; 2=Fertilizer; 3=Pesticides; 4=Planting materials; ……..

5= Other (specify)……………………
8. What is the source of inputs?
1= Input suppliers; 2= MINAGRI; 3= Market

4= Other (specify)……………………………………..

9. How much of inputs do you use for maize crop?

Quantity of Agricultural Inputs and Maize Harvests over the Five Years

Crop Year/Season Size of Quantity of Organic Quantity UREA Quantity of Maize

cultivated seeds of manure of DAP applied Pesticides harvests

area (m2) maize applied applied used(liter) in tons

planted
Maize 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
10. What is the source of labor?
1= Family members 2= Hired 3=Community work ……….
……..
4=Other (specify)………………
 iii

Section B: Questions related to Climate Change/Variability and its Impacts on Maize Production

1. What are the actual climatic conditions of this area in terms of temperature and rainfall compared
to the past 30 years? (Fill in the box with X)
- There is a change There is no change
2. If there is a change or variability, which is that change over the past 30 years?
Phenomena 1. Increasing 2. Decreasing 3. No change
1=Unusual early rains
2=Erratic rainfall
3=Delay of rainfall season
5=Prolonged dry season
6=Heavy rains
7=Shorter rains
8=Dry up rivers
9=Overflow rivers
10=Low soil moisture
12=Flooding
14=Warmer weathers
15=High Temperature

3. Have you ever faced with any climatic hazard induced shock in your lifetime?
1= Yes 2=No
4. If yes, what type of climatic hazard?
1. Droughts
2. Floods

5. For the case of drought, how many times did this hazard occur over the past 30 years?
1=1-5 times
2=6-10 times
3=More than 10 times

6. For the case of floods, how many times did this hazard occur over the past 30 years?
1=1-5 times
2=6-10 times
3=More than 10 times
 iv

7. For the case of drought, what happens to local farmers in the wetland agricultural zones? Fill the
box with Yes or No
1= Water shortage or water stress /…………/
2=Crops withering ……………
3=Increased diseases and pests ……………
4=Other (specify): ……………………………………………………………………………….

8. For the case of flood, what happens to local farmers in the wetland agricultural zones? Fill the box
with Yes or No
1=Destruction of irrigation infrastructure
2=Crops damage
3= Increased diseases and pests
4= Other (specify): ………………………………………………………………………………………

9. In both cases of droughts and floods, who are more vulnerable groups among local farmers to the
impact? (Yes or No)
1= Maize Farmers /…./

2=Vegetable growers /…./

3=Beans and soybeans growers /…./

10. For the case of maize farmers in this area, what happens to the maize crop when there is a
prolonged drought?
Possible Answers Yes
1= Failure to germinate
2=Premature ripening
3=Reduced production cycle
4=High rate of maize diseases and pests
5=Increased crop withering
6=Other (specify): ……………………………………………………………………………………….
 v

11. For the case of maize farmers in this area, what happens to the maize crop when there is a flood?
Possible Answers Yes
1=Maize crop damage

2=Poor germination rate

3=Increased maize diseases
4=Prolonged production cycle
5=Other (specify): ……………………………………………………………………………………….

12. In the case of drought, what are the major diseases and pests? Respond with Yes or No
1=Common smut
2=Corn stunt
3=Maize bushy stunt
4=Maize streak Virus
5=Cornstalk borer
6= Worms, stem weevil, loopers, beetles
7=Rust
8= Bacterial blight
9=Leaf tiers
10= Leaf Blight
11=Aphids
12=Green stinkbugs
13=Spider mites
14=Birds and rats
15=Physiological disorders
16=Other (please specify): …………………………………………………………………………………

13. In the case of flood, what are the major diseases and pests? Respond with Yes or No
1= Nematodes
2=Gray leaf spot
3=Systemic Fusarium infection
4=Pythium stalk Rot
5=Yellow leaf blight
 vi

6=Purple leaf sheath

7=Crazy top
8=Bacterial stalk rot
9=Holcus spot
10= Worms, stem weevil, loopers, beetles
11=Corn Stalk borers
12=Birds
12=Other (specify): ………………………………………………………………………………………..

14. At what extent diseases and pests have affected the maize production? Respond with Yes or No
1=Reduced maize yields
2=Poor quality of maize grains
5=High investment in pesticides
6=Other (specify): …………………………………………………………………………………………..

Section C: Questions related to the Effects of Climate Change on Food Security

1. Do you see any relationship between maize production and food security in this area?
1= Yes 2=No /………………/

2. If yes, what are the major consequences when the maize production has decreased?
Possible Answers Yes or No
1= Reduced number of meals per day
3= Reduced quantity of meals
4=Poor quality of meals
5= Increased family conflicts due to food shortage
6=Increased cases of malnutrition
7= High robbery of food and livestock
8= Rural exodus towards green pastures/urban areas
9= High prices of food at markets

10=Others (Please specify): ……………………………

 vii

3. What are the climate resilience practices are you engaged in to reduce vulnerability to food
insecurity when maize production has decreased?
Possible Answers Yes or No
1=Community food store/reserves

2=Domestic animals rearing

3=Participation in group saving and loans
4=Engagement in off-farm activities
5. Crop mulching in uplands
6=Intercropping practices in uplands
7=Production of other crops (cassava, Irish potatoes, vegetables, etc.)
8. Other (specify)…………………………
Section D: Questions related to Climate Change Adaptation Strategies
1. In case of prolonged drought, which adaptation measures do you use in growing maize?
Possible Answers Yes or No
1=Investing in irrigation mechanisms
2=Use of drought resistant maize varieties

3=Early maturing maize varieties

4=Intensive use of manure and compost
5=Diseases and pests resistant maize varieties

6=Use of pesticides and insecticides

7. Other (specify)………………………………

2. In case of floods, which adaptation measures do you use in growing maize?

Possible answers Yes or No
1=River banks protection
2= Investing in drainage systems
3=Growing water-logging resistant crop varieties
4=Other (specify)…………………………………………………………………………………………

3. What are the major constraints in implementing some adaptation initiatives?

Possible Answers Yes or No

1=Limited knowledge and skills about climate change effects

 viii

2=Lack of capacity to invest in irrigation infrastructures

3=Expensive farm inputs (improved seeds, fertilizers, pesticides)

4= Lack of resistant maize varieties

5= Poor maize value chain

6=Lack of loan security for bank credits

7=Absence of agricultural insurance

8= Insufficient government subsidy for farming inputs

9=Others (specify): …………………………………

4. In both cases of droughts and floods, what are the major sustainable solutions to reduce the
vulnerability to climate change/variability effects?
Possible Answers Yes or No
1= Increased public support for irrigation infrastructures
2= Availing drought resistant maize varieties
3=Availing disease and pest resistant varieties
4= Protect river banks with suitable shrubs
5=Affordable agricultural inputs
6= Adequate maize value chain
9= Strengthening groups saving and loaning schemes
11=Set up a public agricultural fund
12=Increased access to farm credits
14=Improve extension service s on climate change effects
15=Availing farming insurances
16=Creation of more off-farm activities
 ix

Interview Guide/authorities
I. Personal Identification

- Names (optional): ………………………………………………………………

- Position: ………………… ……………………………………….. …………

- District:

II. Questions

1. What are the impacts of climate change and variability on maize production in this area?

…………………………………………………………………………………………………

2. What are the best adaptation strategies to climate change and variability to improve maize production
and sustain food security in the district?
…………………………………………………………………………………………………

3. What may be the constraints to the implementation of these strategies?

…………………………………………………………………………………………………

4. What are the other possible solutions to enable farmers better coping with climate change effects?
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
Thank you!
 x

Appendix 2: The Representation of trends of temperature at Kanombe, Kamembe,

Gisenyi and Rubona stations
xi
 xii

Appendix 3: Trends of Rainfall at Kanombe, Kamembe, Gisenyi and Rubona stations

xiii