Lec 1 - Topic I - Fundamental and General Concept
Lec 1 - Topic I - Fundamental and General Concept
Role of Economics,
Introduction Optimization &
Risk Analysis In
Hydraulic Design
Introduction
❖ Hydraulic structures are engineering structures constructed for the purposes of harnessing
and using water resources (groundwater, surface water, lakes, sea, etc) or for the prevention
of the negative and destructive actions (floods, shore erosion, etc) of water on the
surrounding environment.
▪ There are a large variety of hydraulic structures to serve the many purposes for which
water resources are put to use.
▪ There are several classifications of hydraulic structures, however, the most important is
the classification by function as given below.
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Con. Introduction
Satellite image of Merowe dam and reservoir Upper Atbara and Setit
(Storage Structure) (Storage Structure)
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Intake works
Con. Introduction (Division Structure)
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Dikes
Con. Introduction (Shore Production Structures
)
Stilling Basin
(Energy Dissipation Structures)
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❖ Design of Hydraulic Structures such as dams, weirs, barrages, head regulators, cross-
drainage works, etc consist of two phases: conceptual design and detailed design.
Each phase plays a critical role in ensuring the effectiveness, safety, and sustainability
of the structure
In this initial stage, engineers focus on conceptualizing the overall layout and functionality
of the hydraulic structure. Key considerations include:
➢ Site Assessment: Evaluating the topography, geology, soil conditions, and environmental
factors at the proposed site. Factors such as accessibility, land acquisition, and ecological impact
are also taken into account.
➢ Functional Requirements: Defining the primary purpose of the hydraulic structure, whether
it's for flood control, irrigation, water supply, hydropower generation, or navigation. This helps
in determining the appropriate type and size of the structure.
➢ Selection of Structure Type: Considering various options such as weirs, barrages, head
regulators, or cross-drainage works based on the project requirements, site conditions, and
hydraulic characteristics. 8
Con. Conceptual Design Phase
➢ Preliminary Sizing: Estimating the dimensions, crest elevation, and other geometric parameters
of the structure to meet the anticipated flow conditions and operational objectives.
Once the conceptual design is approved, engineers proceed with the detailed design phase,
which involves refining the design and preparing comprehensive construction plans. Key
activities in this phase include:
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Con. Detailed Design Phase
➢ Structural Analysis: Performing structural analysis and design calculations to ensure stability,
strength, and durability of the hydraulic structure under various loading conditions.
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Con. Detailed Design Phase
➢ Risk Assessment and Management: Identifying potential risks during construction and
operation phases and devising risk mitigation strategies.
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Con. Detailed Design Phase
➢ Quality Assurance and Control: Establishing protocols for quality assurance and control to
ensure compliance with design specifications and standards throughout the construction process.
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The History of
Hydraulic Structure
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Con. The History of Hydraulic Structure
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Con. The History of Hydraulic Structure
▪ The conventional procedure can lead to non-optimal or uneconomical designs and operation
policies. Also, the conventional procedure can be extremely time consuming.
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Con. Conventional Hydraulic Design Process
▪ If the pumping scheme (pump size and site) does not satisfy the
water levels, then a new pumping scheme is selected and
simulated. This iterative process is continued, each time to
determine the cost of the scheme
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Role of Economics In
Hydraulic Design
❖ Benefit-Cost Analysis: Water projects extend over time, incur costs throughout the duration
of the project, and yield benefits. Typically, the costs are large during the initial start-up
period of construction, followed by operation and maintenance costs only. Benefits typically
build up to a maximum over time, as depicted in [Fig-1]. which presenting values of benefits
(PVB) and costs (PVC) 25
Con. Role of Economics In Hydraulic Design
Fig-1: Illustration of how benefits (B) and costs (C) build up over time
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Con. Role of Economics In Hydraulic Design
▪ When selecting a set of projects, one rule for optimal selection is to maximize the current
value of net benefits. Another ranking criterion is to use the benefit-cost ratio (B/C),
PWB/PWC:
➢ The (B/C) ratio is often used to screen unfeasible alternatives with B/C ratios less than 1
from further consideration.
➢ Selection of the optimum alternative is based on the incremental benefit-cost ratios,
∆B/∆C. 27
Con. Role of Economics
In Hydraulic Design
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❖ Estimated Life Spans of Hydraulic Structures
The life span (in years) given for certain elements of hydraulic projects are listed in Table
1.3. Although such estimates of average lives may be helpful, they are not necessarily the
most appropriate figures to use in any given instance.
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❖ Con. Estimated Life Spans of Hydraulic Structures
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Role of Optimization
In Hydraulic Design
➢ where x is a vector of n decision variables (x1, x2, …, xn), g(x) is a vector of m equations
called constraints, and x’ and x’’ represent the lower and upper bounds, respectively, on
the decision variables.
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▪ A feasible solution of the optimization problem is a set of values of the decision variables that
simultaneously satisfies the constraints. The feasible region is the region of feasible solutions
defined by the constraints
▪ An optimal solution is a set of values of the decision variables that satisfies the constraints and
provides an optimal value of the objective function.
▪ Depending on the nature of the objective function and the constraints, an optimization problem
can be classified as:
❖ Existence of Uncertainties
Uncertainties and the consequent related risks in hydraulic design are unavoidable. Hydraulic
structures are always subject to a probability of failure in achieving their intended purposes.
➢ For example, a flood control project may not protect an area from extreme floods. A water
supply project may not deliver the amount of water demanded. This failure may be caused
by failure of the delivery system or may be the result of the lack of supply. A water
distribution system may not deliver water that meets quality standards although the source
of the water does. 33
Con. Role of Risk In Hydraulic Design
▪ Risk is defined as the probability of failure, and failure is defined as an event that causes a
system to fail to meet the desired objectives. Reliability is defined as the complement of risk:
i.e., the probability of nonfailure.
➢ Water distribution systems are a good example. A structural failure, such as broken pipe
or a failed pump, can result in unmet demand. In addition, an operational aspect of a
water distribution system, such as the inability to meet demands at required pressure
heads, is a failure despite the lack of a structural failure in any component in the system.
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Con. Role of Risk In Hydraulic Design
▪ Uncertainty can be defined as the occurrence of events that are beyond one’s control. The
controls. In the design and operation of these systems, decisions must be made under various
kinds of uncertainty.
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❖ The sources of uncertainties are multifold
➢ Natural uncertainties are associated with the random temporal and spatial fluctuations that are
inherent in natural processes.
➢ Model structural uncertainties reflect the inability of a simulation model or design procedure to
represent the system’s true physical behavior or process precisely.
➢ Data uncertainties include inaccuracies and errors in measurements, inadequacy of the data
gauging network, and errors in data handling and transcription.
➢ Operational uncertainties are associated with human factors, such as construction, manufacture,
deterioration, and maintenance, that are not accounted for in the modeling or design procedure
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Con. Role of Risk In Hydraulic Design
▪ Hydrologic uncertainty
▪ Hydraulic uncertainty
▪ Structural uncertainty
▪ Economic uncertainty
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Con. Role of Risk In Hydraulic Design
❖ Hydrologic uncertainty
▪ can be classified into three types: inherent, parameter, and model uncertainties.
➢ In many cases, model uncertainties result from the lack of adequate data and knowledge necessary
to select the appropriate probability model or from the use of an oversimplified model, such as the
rational method for the design of a storm sewer. 38
Con. Role of Risk In Hydraulic Design
❖ Hydraulic uncertainty
▪ concerns the design of hydraulic structures and the analysis of their performance.
➢ It arises mainly from three basic sources: the model, the construction and materials,
and the operational conditions of flow.
➢ Model uncertainty results from the use of a simplified or an idealized hydraulic model to
describe flow conditions, which in turn contributes to uncertainty when determining the
design capacity of hydraulic structures. Because simplified relationships, such as
Manning’s equation, are typically used to model complex flow processes that cannot be
described adequately, resulting in model errors. 39
Con. Role of Risk In Hydraulic Design
❖ Structural uncertainty
refers to failure caused by structural weakness. Physical failures of hydraulic structures can be
caused by saturation and instability of soil, failures caused by erosion or hydraulic soil, wave
action, hydraulic overloading, structural collapse, material failure, and so forth.
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Con. Role of Risk In Hydraulic Design
❖ Economic uncertainty
▪ can arise from uncertainties regarding construction costs, damage costs, projected revenue,
operation and maintenance costs, inflation, project life, and other intangible cost and benefit
items.
▪ Construction, damage, and operation or maintenance costs are all subject to uncertainties
because of fluctuations in the rate at which construction materials, labor costs, transportation
costs, and economic losses, increase and the rate at which costs increase in different
geographic regions. Many other economic and social uncertainties are related to
inconvenience losses: for example, the failure of a highway crossing caused by flooding,
which results in traffic related losses 41
Con. Role of Risk In Hydraulic Design
❖ Risk-Reliability Evaluation
I. Load resistance: The load for a system can be defined as an external stress to the system,
and the resistance can be defined as the capacity of the system to overcome the external
load. If we use the variable (R) for resistance and the variable (L) for load, we can define a
failure as the event when the load exceeds the resistance and the consequent risk is the
probability that the loading will exceed the resistance, P(L >R).
II. Composite Risk: Hydrologic and hydraulic uncertainties being the resistance and loading
uncertainties leads to the idea of a composite risk
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❖ Con. Risk-Reliability Evaluation
III. Safety factor: The safety factor is defined as the ratio of the resistance to loading,
R/L. Because the safety factor, SF, R/L is the ratio of two random variables, it also is
a random variable. The risk can be written as P(SF <1) and the reliability can be
written as P(SF>1)
IV. Risk assessment: Risk assessment requires several phases or steps, which can vary
for different types of water resources engineering projects:
V. A model for risk-based design: The risk-based design of hydraulic structures potentially
promises to be the most significant application of uncertainty and risk analysis. The risk-
based design of hydraulic structures integrates the procedures of economics, future
uncertainty analysis, and risk analysis in design practice.
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47 MASSIVE X presentation to DesignTuts team