Diary

Tom Hougaard
The signals “School Run”, “Advanced School Run, “1st Bar Negative”, “Brunch Break”
and more are available on the free (for now) software that you can download on my
Telegram channel, by going to the Resource Channel, or go to the posts from the 4th
August 2024. You will need an account with www.td365.com.

https://t.me/c/1238535538/61393 is the post where it starts.

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8th August 2024

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Notes to next page FTSE 1st Bar Negative

The FTSE printed a negative 1st bar today. This means that I would want to be a buyer
below the low of the first bar’s low. The low was 8093, so any entry below is good. The
FTSE went as low as 8089. I was filled at 8092. I used a 20 point stop loss.

Postmortem: I tend to move my stop loss up VERY QUICKLY. No sooner had I entered
before the market moved 10 points in my favour. I moved stop loss up to 8088, which
was one point below the low of the most recent low. Moments later the market was
testing 8090 again, and then back up to 8100, at which point I moved my stop loss to
breakeven. I was stopped for zero. It might not have made points, but it was a flawless
execution of the 1BN strategy.
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Notes to next page DAX ASRS

Yesterday I posted my concerns about the ASRS when the market was clearly showing
range bound tendencies. This did not apply today. I am about to show you two charts,
one that shows the ASRS setup today, and then another chart, which will highlight a
concept some of you know as Fair Value Gap. I just want to give you a little health
warning.

Postmortem: I executed my ASRS today and I observed the bigger chart, with the
morning lows being approached. I got out later than I wished, but it was a profit. I gave
it a 4 point off-set today and was filled at 17,460.

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Notes to next page DAX ASRS - continued

3 weeks ago, when I was still engaging with people’s comments on Telegram, I got
dragged into a heated discussion with another trader, clearly an amateur. He was
arguing for a long position in the DAX, during a rapid momentum move lower.
He argued there was a Fair Value Gap, a concept taught by ICT. I argued that it was fine
to trade, but where was his stop loss. He didn’t have one. He was SO CERTAIN that the
FVG would always work. On the next chart I have pointed out a few of these FVG. Some
work. Some do not.
I am not trying to poke an argument with ICT. I just want to remind all aspiring traders
that whatever you use as your entry approach, remember that nothing works all the
time. So make sure you learn to lose well. Those who are able to lose well tend to be
the ones who make it in this business, irrespectively of them using Fib, Vol, WVAP, or
pure price action. The Holy Grail does exist. It is you. You are the holy grail.
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Notes to next page DAX SRS

DAX school Run is setting up at 17,496 LONG and 17,434 SHORT. That is one of the
smallest stops in recent weeks, suggesting that volatility is dying down. I went long at
17,500. I was in profit by 15 points, which perhaps should have prompted a move of
stop loss, but I didn’t. I like to wait until I am at least 20 points in profit, when the
markets are volatile. I had to sit through 45 minutes of agony. Then Brunch Break
triggered at 17,505. I doubled my position at 17,510, meaning I was long from 17,500
and 17,510. I moved stop loss on 1st entry to 17,495 and stop loss on 2nd entry was
17,460. I was 90 points in total profit and moved stop loss up to breakeven. I was
hoping to see new highs for the morning. I absolutely did not expect the market to
move back into the range before hitting new highs, but it did, and I was left with little
profits. Sometimes you do everything right and you get little reward. Hmm…
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Notes to next page Dow ASRS and SRS + BB

I actually shorted Dow on an ASRS and had a stop and reverse at the top of the ASRS
bar. It went insanely quick, and I was quite happy to have orders in place, because I
would never have caught it using “point and click”. You need to see my Nasdaq trade
to understand why today was tricky to trade.

The SRS was very strange, because the Dow just died and went into a long sideways
range. I got out for very little. Very strange afternoon.

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Notes to next page NASDAQ ASRS and SRS

The Nasdaq fooled my too. I shorted NASDAQ ASRS and I was practically filled RIGHT at
the low, on a short!!!

Like the Dow I have a flip the switch, and it turned into a good trade. Nasdaq had
strong momentum higher. I felt a little “unlucky” to get filled on short. I almost
immediately knew I was doomed, but I like it ride.

Nasdaq SRS today was the trade that brought home the bacon – or Tofu – if you are
that way inclined. I ignored the BB today, because it went counter to my long Nasdaq.
It would have been a loser, although I think you need a bigger offset than 5 points in
Nasdaq and Dow at the moment.
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7th August 2024

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Notes to next page

The FTSE has now triggered a 1st Bar Negative SELL SHORT order. Now I want to make
one thing known, from a trader's statistical perspective: During my research on 1BN,
the SELL SHORT SIDE had a significantly lower success rate than the BUY SIDE setups.
Sadly, today the BUY SIDE did not trigger. It had to go 1 point lower, and it did not. Now
the SELL SHORT triggered at 8089 or better. I am not arguing for not taking the short
side, but I am acutely aware that the SHORT SELL on a 1BN has not got the same edge
statistically as the LONG side.

Postmortem: the maximum stop loss I will allocate to the 1BN setup is 20 points. Here
the market went 21 points against me, even as it later turned into a good setup.
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Notes to next page

I have made a lot of money using ASRS Monday and Tuesday. I mentioned to someone
that the pendulum will eventually swing back the other way. The DAX is not in the habit
of giving money away so readily and easily, as it has the last weeks.

My concern for ASRS was triggered today, and I have shown ASRS for Tuesday and
Monday for comparison. Monday the ASRS was a clear reversal up. Tuesday was less
clear, but it eventually worked well. Today the CONTEXT for the ASRS was horrible.
There was an outside bar, and a handful of overlapping bars, showing no strong sense
of direction. Yes, the ASRS short could be traded with a meaningful stop loss, and yes it
was at least a breakeven trade. Switch worked. ASRS must be used with caution now.
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FOCUS ON ASRS

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DAX 5min

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Notes to next page

SRS and BB have been huge point earners in the last 15 trading days. Today was no
exception. May it long continue.

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DAX 15min

In the DAX index, there is no statistical significance to

the validity of the School Run, if the signal bar is an
inside bar. It became a problem if you have a multitude
of inside bars after the opening range 15min bar.

So, I am long DAX on an SRS from 17,442 because

although it was an inside bar, it matters not statistically.
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DOW 5min

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DOW 5min

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Notes to next page

Flipping the switch is a concept that I use and have used a lot in my recent trading
career. When it goes well, I look like a superhero. When it blows up in my face, I
receive hate mail, accusing me of revenge trading. Obviously, I am neither superman,
nor do I revenge trade.

Today’s signal bar in the Dow was 200 points wide. That is a BIG stop loss, but the trick
is not to focus on the absolute stop loss, but to see it in context of the rest of the bars.
If the signal bar is 200 points wide, you can be sure it will be a volatile day. Of course,
you may need to scale down your risk size to adjust for the huge ranges, but otherwise,
you might as well accept (I tell myself this too), that in times like this, it is not always
you hit the right trade the first time around. Today it took two entries. BB worked too.
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DOW 15min

BB triggered at 39,340 and 12 bars later was 600 points in profit!

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NASDAQ 5min

ASRS was not working in NASDAQ today.

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NASDAQ 15min

I lost in Dow SRS, and I lost on Naz ASRS, but oh boy was SRS and BB effective. 600 plus
points…and that was with no add on’s. You live for days like this, don’t you?

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Notes

A great neurological exercise, both from a pragmatic visualisation exercise and a tool for "David Paul's
30", is to take School Run every day. I overcome my trading fear by first visualising a proven concept,
with my eyes closed, seeing myself taking the trades, over and over. Then bridging the theory of a
visualisation exercise with the reality of trading, I am took every trade as they came along, in a size,
which was not threatening to my mind, but just important enough to mean something. So say your
normal size is 100 lots. Now you engage in a 10 lot, simply because it trains the neurological perception
of taking risk, engaging the brain in risk taking, seeing trades fail, taking responsibility for them,
accepting that anything can happen.

An analogy might help. You are advised to engage in a strength training program, to increase your muscle
mass, which in turn will speed up your metabolism, and thus aide in weight loss. You join the gym, and
you start lifting weights. Now your worst danger here is not injury. If you lift light weights, you will not
injure yourself, but it might seem below your capacity. Well, we are trying to avoid you blowing up your
account, and while it might seem boring and below your capacity to train in 1 lot, the idea is to build
patterns of consistency rather than big profits (muscles).
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6th August 2024

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Note to 6th August 2024
I am officially on holiday. I traded the School Run in DAX today, but I left the FTSE
alone because it didn’t trigger until after one hour. I traded Dow and Nasdaq early
on an ASRS, and I held it until 60min before the close.

The charts in the next handful of pages are setups that are programmed into my free
software (for now), which you can download here on Telegram. Go to the posts from
the weekend of the 4th August 2024 to find the download links.

When the market is as volatile as it is now, mechanical entries like these tend to
work well. The pendulum always swings back at some point. Enjoy.

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FTSE 1st Bar Negative

See comments on chart

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DAX 5min – ASRS worked – both long and short

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DAX SRS and BB worked well.

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I traded the ASRS in Telegram today… worked well

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I traded the ASRS in Telegram today… worked well

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Dow School Run worked, but I was already long from
Aggressive School Run entry. Brunch worked too..

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I traded a new Nasdaq technique, but ASRS worked well.

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NASDAQ SRS worked well. So too did Brunch Break.

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 Easy to do
Workshop on “secrets”
of technical analysis.

Hard Work
Workshop on self-analysis and
why “what you know” and
“what you do” is not aligned
and how to fix it.
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 Let not thy heart be troubled,
let it be not afraid – so long as ye are
conscious of thy effort.
2600-2

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5th August 2024

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FTSE 1st Bar Negative

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FTSE 1st Bar Negative - explanation

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DAX ASRS: Dax ASRS is more aggressive than the 15min SRS. ASRS stands for Aggressive School
Run Strategy. Today the ranges were huge. The strategy calls for longs above 17,219 and shorts
below 17,104. I invented ASRS because at times the SRS is too slow to capture the market moves.

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DAX SRS: DAX SRS worked well today, as it has during the entire sell off. Today I only
managed a small profit on the long side, but I shorted it later in the morning. See next
page for more information.

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When a positive first bar low is breached

I have developed a model (strategy) which works on the premise that if a morning
low is later breached (i.e. the market rallied, and then come back down to the low),
then you need to get short.

I was already short from the Brunch Break, which is a new approach to trading DAX.
It worked supremely well today, although I was stopped out for a smaller profit than
was later available, as market bounced, and then fell.

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Dow ASRS: It was difficult for me to trade effectively today because I only had one
laptop screen, as I am on holiday. There was a case for an ASRS long in Dow.

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Dow SRS: Both SRS and BB worked well in Dow, as it has during the entire
breakdown. Not much to say. I did not trade BB today.

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Nasdaq ASRS: Chart shows ASRS bracket in Nasdaq. I used a different approach
today and nailed 250 points on 50% of my entry.

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Nasdaq SRS: I am undecided if BB works well in the long term in Nasdaq. It worked
well today although the ranges were huge. I did not trade either today, as I used a
different approach to entry today.

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Questions?