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THE THIRD REVOLUTION
THE THIRD REVOLUTION
ELIZABETH C. ECONOMY
A Council on Foreign Relations Book
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the
University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by
publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press
in the UK and certain other countries.
You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same
condition on any acquirer.
1 Introduction
2 Heart of Darkness
3 Chinanet
4 The Not-So-New Normal
5 Innovation Nation
6 War on Pollution
7 The Lion Awakens
8 The Road Forward
Notes
Index
Map of China and Its Provinces
Writing a book is both a solo and a collective endeavor. For over two
decades, I have been privileged to call the Council on Foreign
Relations a second home. For this, I thank both Leslie A. Gelb, who
hired me as a newly minted PhD and nurtured me through my first
decade, and Richard Haass, who has supported me ever since by
giving me the room to make mistakes, learn from them, and find my
voice in the process. My colleagues have been an integral part of my
intellectual journey as well—Adam Segal, always my best sounding
board, but also Max Boot, Irina Faskianos, Shannon O’Neil, Micah
Zenko, and my terrific Asia Studies colleagues, Alyssa Ayres, Jerome
Cohen, Yanzhong Huang, Josh Kurlantzick, Ely Ratner, Sheila Smith,
and Scott Snyder. All of them set a high standard of quality and
productivity that I strive to meet. Amy Baker, Nancy Bodurtha, and
Patricia Dorff also all provided important support in the process of
writing the book. Outside the Council on Foreign Relations, Winston
Lord and Orville Schell, two outstanding leaders in U.S.‒China
relations, inspire me both for their intellectual integrity and their
generosity of spirit. Arthur Kroeber read part of the manuscript and
provided invaluable advice.
The actual process of writing this book was facilitated by many
people. Certainly, I owe an enormous debt to those Chinese
scholars, activists, businesspeople, and officials who took the time to
meet with me and share their perspectives. In some cases, our
conversations spanned a decade or more. I am fortunate as well
that two outside reviewers, as well as CFR Director of Studies James
Lindsay and President Richard Haass took the time to read the
manuscript carefully and pushed me to make it better. Their
contributions cannot be overstated. I am grateful to David McBride
for his support and guidance throughout the publication process.
The Starr Foundation also has my deepest gratitude for providing
the financial support that enabled me to research and write this
book. My two research associates, Rachel Brown and Gabriel Walker,
provided invaluable research assistance and brought intellectual rigor
and an attention to detail that aided me throughout the process of
research and writing. I was fortunate that when they went off to
graduate school, two more outstanding research associates, Maylin
Meisenheimer and Viola Rothschild, stepped into their shoes and
helped me complete the process of fact-checking and proofreading.
Natalie Au, who interned during the final editing stages, also
provided critical support. All translations and any mistakes, of
course, are my own.
Last, but never least, I would like to thank my family. My parents,
James and Anastasia Economy; my siblings, Peter, Katherine, and
Melissa; and above all my husband, David; and our children,
Alexander, Nicholas, and Eleni. They all remind me on a daily basis
what really matters in life.
Elizabeth C. EconomyNew York City
THE THIRD REVOLUTION
1
Introduction
While Charles was engaged in Poland, Peter gained time for the
accomplishment of those measures which his situation suggested.
Despatching a body of troops to protect the frontiers at Pskov, he
repaired in person to Moscow, and occupied himself throughout the
ensuing winter in raising and training six regiments of infantry,
consisting of 1000 men each, and several regiments of dragoons.
Having lost 145 pieces of cannon in the affair at Narva he ordered a
certain proportion of the bells of the convents and churches to be
cast into field pieces; and was prepared in the spring of the year
1701 to resume hostilities with increased strength, and an artillery of
100 pieces of cannon, 142 field pieces, 12 mortars, and 13
howitzers.
Nor did he confine his attention to the improvement of the army.
Conscious of the importance of diffusing employment amongst his
subjects, and increasing their domestic prosperity, he introduced into
the country flocks of sheep from Saxony, and shepherds to attend to
them, for the sake of the wool; established hospitals, and linen and
paper manufactories; encouraged the art of printing; and invited
from distant places a variety of artisans to impart to the lower
classes a knowledge of useful crafts. These proceedings were
treated with levity and contempt by Charles, who appears all
throughout to have despised the Russians, and who, engrossed by
his campaign in Courland and Lithuania, intended to turn back to
Moscow at his leisure, after he should have dethroned Augustus, and
ravaged the domains of Saxony.
Unfortunately the divisions that prevailed in the councils of Poland
assisted to carry these projects rapidly into effect. Peter was anxious
to enter into a new alliance with Augustus, but, in an interview he
held with that prince at Birzen, he discovered the weakness of his
position and the hopelessness of expecting any effectual succour at
his hands. The Polish diet, equally jealous of the interference of the
Saxon and Russian soldiery in their affairs, and afraid to incur the
hostility of Charles, refused to sanction a league that threatened to
involve them in serious difficulties. Hence, Augustus, left to his own
resources, was easily deprived of a throne which he seemed to hold
against the consent of the people, while Peter was forced to conduct
the war alone. His measures were consequently taken with
promptitude and decision. His army was no sooner prepared for
action than he re-entered Ingria, animating the troops by his
presence at the several points to which he directed their
movements. In some accidental skirmishes with small bodies of the
Swedes, he reaped a series of minor successes, that inspired the
soldiers with confidence and improved their skill for the more
important scenes that were to follow. Constantly in motion between
Pskov, Moscow, and Archangel, at which last place he built a fortress
called the New Dvina, he diffused a spirit of enthusiasm amongst the
soldiers, who were now becoming inured to action.
An open battle at last took place in the
[1702 a.d.] neighbourhood of Dorpat, on the borders of
Livonia, when General Sheremetrev fell in with
the main body of the enemy on the 1st of January, 1702, and, after
a severe conflict of four hours, compelled them to abandon their
artillery and fly in disorder. On this occasion, the Swedes are said to
have lost three thousand men, while there were but one thousand
killed on the opposite side. General Sheremetrev was immediately
created a field-marshal, and public thanks were offered up for the
victory.
Following up this signal triumph, the czar equipped one fleet upon
Lake Peipus to protect the territory of Novgorod, and manned
another upon Lake Ladoga, to resist the Swedes in case they should
attempt a landing. Thus guarded at the vulnerable points, he was
enabled to prosecute his plans in the interior with greater certainty
and effect.
Marshal Sheremetrev in the meantime marched upon Marienburg,
a town on the confines of Livonia and Ingria, achieving on his
progress another triumph over the enemy near the village of
Humolova. The garrison at Marienburg, afraid to risk the
consequences of a siege, capitulated at once, on condition that the
inhabitants should be permitted a free passage, which was agreed
to; but an intemperate officer having set fire to the powder
magazine, to prevent the negotiation from being effected, by which
a number of soldiers on both sides were killed, the Russians fell
upon the inhabitants and destroyed the town.
RENEWED HOSTILITIES
POLISH AFFAIRS