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Counting Mathematical Induction and Discrete Probability Part 3 21

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34 views12 pages

Counting Mathematical Induction and Discrete Probability Part 3 21

Husband abhinandan abbajJN shahajahan sjjsjsjsjjsjsjjs shahajahan ajjajsjjasj sjjsjaja

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SANDEEP Singh
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Counting, Mathematical Induction and Discrete Probability Part-3

Content:

1. Conditional Probability
2. Independent Variable
3. Bayes’ Theorem

Conditional Probability

The conditional probability of event B is the probability that the event take place given
that you already have knowledge that event A has already taken place. The probability
notation is given by P(B|A) which means the probability of B given A.

In this case where the two events A and B are independent where the event A does
not affect the probability of event B then the conditional probability of the event event
A is P(B).

However, if the two events A and B are not independent, the probability of intersection
of A and B that is the probability of both the events occurring is denoted by:

P(A and B) = P(A)P(B|A).

This can help you to get the probability of P(B|A)which is obtained by

P(B|A)= P(A∩B)/P(A)

Properties of Conditional Probability:

Property 1: If E and F are the events of the sample space say S , P(S|F) = P(F|F)
=1

Property 2: If A and B are two events in a sample space S and F is an event of S


such that

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P(F) ≠ 0 , P((AUB)|F) = P(A|F) + P(B|F) – P((A∩B)|F).

Property3: P(A’ |B) = 1- P(A|B)

Example: Given that E and Fare events such that


P (E) = 0.6, P (F) = 0.3 and P(E∩F) = 0.2
find P(E|F) and P (F|E).

Solution:

Example: If P (A)=0.8, P (B)=0.5 and P(B/A)=0.4, find

(i) P(A∩B)

(ii) P(A/B)

(iii)P(A∪B)

Solution:

Example: Evaluate P(A∪B) if 2P(A) = P(B) = 5/13 and P(A|B) = 2/5.

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Solution:

Example: Determine P(E/F):

A coin is tossed three times, where

(i) E: head on third toss F: heads on first two tosses.

(ii) E: at least two heads F : at most two heads

(ii) E: at most two tails F: at least one tail

Solution:

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Example: Black and a red die are rolled.

(a) Find the conditional probability of obtaining a sum greater than 9, given that the
black die resulted in a 5.

(b) Find the conditional probability of obtaining the sum 8, given that the red die
resulted in a number less than 4.

Solution:

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Independent Events :

Those events that when occurs does not affect any other event. Like if a coin is
flipped in the air and the outcome is head . If you flip the coin again , the outcome is
a tail. In both the cases, the occurrence of each event is independent of each other.
If the probability of an outcome of an event say A is not affected by the probability of
occurrence of another event B, it is said that A and B are two independent events.

In Interdependent event

P(A∩B) = P(A) X P(B)

Example: If, P(A) =3/5 and P(B) =1/5 find P (A ∩ B) if A and B are independent
events.

Solution:

Example: Two cards are drawn at random and without replacement from a pack of 52
playing cards. Find the probability that both the cards are black.

Solution:

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Example: A fair coin and an unbiased die are tossed. Let A be the event ‘head
appears on the coin’ and B be the event ‘3 on the die’. Check whether A and B are
independent events or not

Solution:

Example: Given that the events A and B are such that P(A) = 1/2,P(A∪B) = 3/5 and
P(B) = p. Find p if they are

(i) mutually exclusive

(ii) independent.

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Example: Let A and B independent events P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.4. Find

(i) P(A∩B)

(ii) P(A∪B)

(iii) P (A | B)

(iv) P(B | A)

Solution:

Bayes’ Theorem:

Bayes, is a mathematical formula for determining conditional probability. Conditional


probability is the likelihood of an outcome occurring, based on a previous outcome
occurring. Bayes' theorem provides a way to revise existing predictions or theories
(update probabilities) given new or additional evidence. In finance, Bayes' theorem can
be used to rate the risk of lending money to potential borrowers.

Bayes' theorem is also called Bayes' Rule or Bayes' Law and is the foundation of the field
of Bayesian statistics.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Bayes' theorem allows you to update predicted probabilities of an event by


incorporating new information.

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• It is often employed in finance in updating risk evaluation.

Example: A bag contains 4 red and 4 black balls, another bag contains 2 red and 6
black balls. One of the two bags is selected at random and a ball is drawn from the
bag which is found to be red. Find the probability that the ball is drawn from the first
bag.

Solution:

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Example: Of the students In a college, it is known that 60% reside In hostel and 40%
are day scholars (not residing In hostel). Previous year results report that 30% of all
students who reside in hostel attain A grade and 20% of day scholars attain A grade
in their annual examination. At the end of the year, one student Is chosen at random
from the college and he has an A- grade what Is the probability that the student is a
hostlier?

Solution:

Example: In answering a question on a multiple choice test, a student either knows


the answer or 3 guesses. Let 3/4 be the probability that he knows the answer and
1/4 be the probability that he guesses. Assuming that a student who guesses at the
answer will be correct with probability 1/4 .What is the probability that the student
knows the answer given that he answered it correctly?

Solution:

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