Tutorial 7 – Questions and solutions

Part 1 – Sections 4.4 and 4.5

Questions 1 to 4 are based on the following information:

A tele-sales centre has found that 65% of the people they phone hang up before finding out
what products are being sold. The salesmen call these “hang-ups”. Sixty calls were made in
the last 30 minutes.

Question 1
What is the probability that two thirds of the calls were hang-ups?

Q1 solution:

Event of interest: The call is a hang-up. Each call is a “trial”.

There are a fixed, finite number of trials: 𝑛=60.
There are two complementary outcomes: Each trial is either a hang-up (success) or not a
hang-up (failure).
The trials are independent: A person hanging up (or not) does not affect the
outcome/response of the other people.
The trials are identical: P(success) = P(hang-up) = p = 0.65
Let 𝑋 be the number of hang-ups in the last 30 minutes.
So, 𝑋~𝐵𝑖𝑛(60 ; 0,65)
𝑛 = 60 is not part of the Binomial tables so the pmf or Excel must be used for calculations.

60
𝑃(𝑋 = 40) = ( ) (0.65)40 (0.35)20 = 0.10478 … ≈ 0.105
40

2 The following Excel command can be used:

( ) (60) = 40
3 = 𝐵𝐼𝑁𝑂𝑀. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇(40 ; 60 ; 0,65 ; 𝐹𝐴𝐿𝑆𝐸 )

Question 2
What is the probability that 35 to 38 of the calls were hang-ups?

Q2 solution:
𝑃(35 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 38)
= 𝑃(𝑋 = 35) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 36) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 37) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 38)
60 60 60
= ( ) (0.65)35 (0.35)25 + ( ) (0.65)36 (0.35)24 + ( ) (0.65)37 (0.35)23
35 36 37
60 (0.65)38 (0.35)22
+( )
38
= 0.32835 …
≈ 0.328
To use Excel take note that
𝑃(35 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 38) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 38) − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 34)

So, use the command:

= 𝐵𝐼𝑁𝑂𝑀. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇( 38 ; 60 ; 0,65 ; 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸 ) − 𝐵𝐼𝑁𝑂𝑀. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇( 34 ; 60 ; 0,65 ; 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸 )

Question 3
It is estimated that the tele-sales centre makes a loss of R15 for every hang-up. What is the
expected loss for the sales made in the last 30 minutes?

Q3 solution:
First find the expected number of hang-ups
𝐸(𝑋) = (60)(0.65) = 39
Each hang-up makes a loss of R15 so,
𝐸(𝑙𝑜𝑠𝑠) = (39)(15) = 585

Question 4
What is the distribution of the random variable that gives the number of calls that are not
hang-ups?

Q4 solution:
Let 𝑌 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑛𝑜𝑡 ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔 − 𝑢𝑝𝑠
P(call is not a hang-up) = 1 – 0.65 = 0.35
So,
𝑌~𝐵𝑖𝑛(60 ; 0.35)

Questions 5 to 9 are based on the following information:

An insurance company receives, on average, 5 claims in any two-hour period of a working
day. There are eight hours in a working day.

Question 5
What Excel command/formula can be used to calculate is the probability that the insurance
company receives 8 claims in the last two hours of a working day?

Q5 solution:
Let T=number of claims received in a 2-hr period
𝑇~𝑃𝑜𝑖 (5)

= 𝑃𝑂𝐼𝑆𝑆𝑂𝑁. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇( 8 ; 5 ; 𝐹𝐴𝐿𝑆𝐸 )

Question 6
What is the probability that the insurance company receives 4 to 8 claims in the next two-
hour period?

Q6 solution:
𝑃(4 ≤ 𝑇 ≤ 8)
= 𝑃(𝑇 ≤ 8) − 𝑃(𝑇 ≤ 3)
= 0.9319 − 0.2650
= 0.6669 Poisson Cumulative probability tables used.

The following Excel command/formula can be used:

= 𝑃𝑂𝐼𝑆𝑆𝑂𝑁. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇( 8 ; 5 ; 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸 ) − 𝑃𝑂𝐼𝑆𝑆𝑂𝑁. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇( 3 ; 5 ; 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸 )

Question 7
What Excel command/formula can be used to calculate the probability that the insurance
company receives more than 2 claims in the next hour?

Q7 solution:
Let H= number of claims received in 1 hour
𝐻~𝑃𝑜𝑖 (2.5)
Find: 𝑃(𝐻 > 2) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐻 ≤ 2)
= 1 − 𝑃𝑂𝐼𝑆𝑆𝑂𝑁. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇( 2 ; 2,5 ; 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸 )

Question 8
What is the probability that the insurance company receives only 9 claims in the next 4
hours?

Q8 solution:
Let F= number of claims received in 4 hours.
𝐹~𝑃𝑜𝑖 (10)
𝑒 −10 109
𝑃(𝐹 = 9) = = 0.12511 … ≈ 0.125
9!
The following Excel command can be used:
= 𝑃𝑂𝐼𝑆𝑆𝑂𝑁. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇( 9 ; 10 ; 𝐹𝐴𝐿𝑆𝐸 )

Question 9
How many claims can the insurance company expect in a 7-day week?

Q9 solution:
There are 8 hours in a day so there are 8 × 7 = 56 hours in a 7-day week.
Let W= number of claims received in a 7-day week (56 hours).

In 2 hours we can expect 5 claims So multiply the

Multiplied time by 28
In 56 hours we can expect 140 claims mean by 28

𝑊~𝑃𝑜𝑖 (140)
So, 140 claims can be expected in a 7-day week.
Questions 10 to 14 are based on the following information:
A doctor has found that 75% of his consultations are with people with flu (influenza)
symptoms. The doctor has 14 consultations booked for the day.

Question 10
What is the probability that more than 8, but at most 12, of the consultations will be with
people who have flu symptoms?

Q10 solution:
Event of interest: The person at the consultation has flu symptoms. Each
person/consultation is a trial.
There are a fixed, finite number of trials: 𝑛=14.
There are two complementary events for each trial: The person having the consultation has
flu symptoms or they do not have flu symptoms.
The trials are identical: P(success) = P(person at consultation has flu symptoms) = 0.75
The trials are independent
Let random variable 𝑋 count the number of consultations in which the person has flu
symptoms.
Then, 𝑋~𝐵𝑖𝑛(14 ; 0.75)

𝑃(8 < 𝑋 ≤ 12)

= 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 12) − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 8) Used the cumulative Binomial
= 0.8990 − 0.1117
distribution tables.
= 0.7873

The following Excel command/formula can be used:

= 𝐵𝐼𝑁𝑂𝑀. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇( 12 ; 14 ; 0,75 ; 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸 ) − 𝐵𝐼𝑁𝑂𝑀. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇(8 ; 14 ; 0,75 ; 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸)

Question 11
What Excel command/formula can be used to calculate the probability that at least half of
the consultations will be for people with flu symptoms?

Q11 solution:
𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 ℎ𝑎𝑙𝑓 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑓𝑙𝑢 𝑠𝑦𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑜𝑚𝑠) Calculation done for your interest.
= 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 7)
= 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 6)
= 1 − 0.0103
= 0.9897

Used the cumulative

Binomial distribution
tables.
The following Excel command/formula can be used:
= 1 − 𝐵𝐼𝑁𝑂𝑀. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇( 6; 14; 0,75; 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸 )

Question 12
The doctor can expect k of the consultations to be with people with flu symptoms. What is
the value of k?

Q12 solution:
𝑘 = 𝐸(𝑋) = (0.75)(14) = 10.5 ≈ 11

Question 13
What is the distribution of the random variable that gives the number of consultations that
are with people who do not have flu symptoms?

Q13 solution:
Let 𝑌 =no. of consultations that are with people who do not have flu symptoms
P(not have flu symptoms) = 1 – 0.75 = 0.25
𝑌~𝐵𝑖𝑛(14 ; 0.25)

Question 14
What Excel command/formula can be used to calculate the probability that the doctor has
at most 3 consultations with people who do not have flu symptoms?

Q14 solution:
Want the command/formula to calculate 𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 3).
= 𝐵𝐼𝑁𝑂𝑀. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇(3; 14; 0,25; 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸)

Questions 15 to 19 are based on the following information:

An old woman takes two types of pills every day. Type-1 she takes in the morning and the
evening. Type-2 she takes only in the morning as taking it more than once a day makes her
ill. This morning the woman opened a bottle of 10 Type-1 pills and a bottle of 6 Type-2 pills.
She accidentally dropped both the bottles before taking the pills so all the pills got mixed
up. The old woman has poor eyesight so she couldn’t tell the difference between the two
types of pills. She decided to randomly pick two pills to take this morning.

Question 15
What is the probability that the woman will get ill because she picked two of the Type-2
pills?

Q15 solution:
Question 16
What is the probability that the woman took the correct medication?

Q16 solution:

Question 17
The woman gets very tired if she does not take a Type-2 pill in the morning. What is the
probability that she will get tired because she did not take a Type-2 pill?

Q17 solution:

Question 18
Let 𝑋 be the random variable that counts the number of Type-2 pills that the woman took
this morning. Using the answers in questions 15, 16 and 17, construct the pdf of 𝑋.

Q18 solution:

Question 19
What type of distribution does 𝑋 follow?

Q19 solution:
X has a hypergeometric distribution.

Questions 20, 21 and 22 are based on the following information:

A shopkeeper hires out two models of vacuum cleaners. The demand for the Model-A
vacuum cleaners is, on average, 5 per day and the demand for the Model-B vacuum cleaners
is, on average, 2 per day.
Question 20
What is the probability that the shopkeeper hires out at most 3 Model-A vacuum cleaners in
a day?

Q20 solution:
Let X= number of Model-A vacuum cleaners hired out in a day
𝑋~𝑃𝑜𝑖 (5)
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 3) = 0.2650 (Poisson cumulative probability tables)
The following Excel command/formula can be used:
= 𝑃𝑂𝐼𝑆𝑆𝑂𝑁. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇( 3 ; 5 ; 𝑇𝑈𝑅𝐸 )

Question 21
If the Model-B vacuum cleaner is hired out for R100 per day, how much income can the
shopkeeper expect to earn from hiring out Model-B vacuum cleaners in a 5-day week?

Q21 solution:
Let Y= number of Model-B vacuum cleaners hired out in a day
𝑌~𝑃𝑜𝑖 (2)
Let F=number of Model-B vacuum cleaners that are hired out in 5 days.
In 1 day, 2 Model-B vacuum cleaners are expected to be hired out.
In 5 days, 2 × 5 = 10 Model-B vacuum cleaners are expected to be hired out.
𝐹~𝑃𝑜𝑖 (10)
10 Model-B vacuums are expected to be hired out in 5 days. Each gets hired out for R100.
So, the shopkeeper can expect 10 × 100 = 𝑅1000 in income from hiring out Model-B
vacuum cleaners (in 5 days).

Question 22
In total, how many vacuums can the shopkeeper expect to hire out in a 5-day week?

Q22 solution:
Let W=number of Model-A vacuum cleaners hired out in 5 days.
In 1 day, 5 Model-A vacuums are expected to be hired out.
In 5 days, 5 × 5 = 25 Model-A vaccums are expected to be hired out.
𝑊~𝑃𝑜𝑖 (25)
Let F=number of Model-B vacuum cleaners that are hired out in 5 days (from Q21)
𝐹~𝑃𝑜𝑖 (10)

So, in 5 days the shopkeeper can expect to hire out 25 Model-A vacuums and 10 Model-B
vacuums i.e. a total of 35 vacuums.

Questions 23 and 24 are based on the following information:

Sunshine Fruit sells bags containing 12 apples. On examining the contents of various bags
over time, it is found that 25% of the apples in each bag are grade-3 apples with the
remaining apples being grade-2. Five (5) apples are randomly selected from a bag.

No. of grade-3 apples:

(0.25)(12) = 3
No. of grade-2 apples:
(0.75)(12) = 9

Question 23
What Excel command/formula can be used to calculate the probability that no grade-3
apples are picked?

Q23 solution:
Let X= number of grade-3 apples selected
Find: 𝑃(𝑋 = 0)
= 𝐻𝑌𝑃𝐺𝐸𝑂𝑀. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇( 0 ; 5 ; 3 ; 12 ; 𝐹𝐴𝐿𝑆𝐸)
OR (since 0 is the minimum value that X can take on)
= 𝐻𝑌𝑃𝐺𝐸𝑂𝑀. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇( 0 ; 5 ; 3 ; 12 ; 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸 )

Question 24
What is the probability that at most 1 grade-3 apple is picked?

Q24 solution:
3 9 3 9
( )( ) ( )( )
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 1) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = 0 5 + 1 4 = 0.6363 … ≈ 0.636
12 12
( ) ( )
5 5
The following Excel command/formula can be used:
= 𝐻𝑌𝑃𝐺𝐸𝑂𝑀. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇( 1 ; 5 ; 3 ; 12 ; 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸 )
Part 2 – Chapter 9

Questions 25 and 26 are based on the following information:

The training manager of a company that assembles and exports pool pumps wants to know
if there is a link between the number of hours spent by assembly workers in training and
their productivity on the job. A random sample of 10 assembly workers was selected and
their performances evaluated. The information gathered is shown in the table below.

Training hours 20 36 20 38 40 33 32 28 40 24
Output 40 70 44 56 60 48 62 54 63 38

Question 25
Calculate the coefficient of determination and gives it’s interpretation.

Q25 solution:
𝑟 2 = (0.807 … )2 = 0.6516 … ≈ 0.65
Approximately 65% of the variability of an assembly worker’s output can be explained by it’s
linear relationship with the number of hours spent training.

Question 26
Find the equation of the line of best fit. Then, use it to predict the output of an assembly
worker who has had 35 hours of training.

Q26 solution:
𝑦̂ = 18.91569606 + 1.112035496 𝑥
When 𝑥 = 35: 𝑦̂ = 18.91569606 + (1.112035496)(35) = 57.83694 … ≈ 58

Questions 27 and 28 are based on the following information:

A bank wanted to find out whether the number of loan applications received are influenced
by the current load interest rate. The manager selected 11 monthly periods for which
different interest rates applied and recorded the number of loan applications received. The
information is shown in the table below.

Interest rate
(%) 7,0 6,5 5,5 6,0 8,0 8,5 6,0 6,5 7,5 8,0 6,0
Loan
applications 18 22 30 24 16 18 28 27 20 17 21
Question 27
What is the value of the correlation coefficient?

Q27 solution:
𝑟 = −0.830200 … ≈ −0.83

Question 28
Find the line of best fit.

Q28 solution:
𝑦̂ = 48.991 − 3.946 𝑥
(values rounded to 3 decimals)