Tutorial 6 – Questions and solutions

Question 1
You have bag that contains two R20 notes, two R100 notes and one R200 note. You select
two notes. Let X = number of R100 notes selected.
Construct the probability mass function (PMF) of the random variable X.

Q1 solution:
X=number of R100 notes, x= 0, 1, 2

Two ways to do this: For both use the notation (x,y) to mean that get notes with values Rx and Ry.

Method 1:

Identifying immediately that order does not matter. So (x,y) is the same as (y,x).

S={ (20,20), (20,100), (20,200), (100,100), (100,200) }

These outcomes are
Use combinations (since order doesn’t matter) to find the probabilities. not all equally likely.
There are more R20’s
P(20 and 20)= 2C2 / 5C2 = 0.1 and R100’s so
P(20 and 100)= 2C1x2C1 / 5C2 = 0.4 outcomes involving
R20 and R100 have a
P(20 and 200) = 2C1x1C1 / 5C2= 0.2 higher probability of
P(100 and 100) = 2C2/ 5C2 = 0.1 occurring (when
compared to
P(100 and 200) = 2C1x1C1 / 5C2 = 0.2 outcomes involving
R200).
x 0 1 2
P(x) 0.3 0.6 0.1

Method 2:

Writing out the “full” sample space taking into account that can distinguish between notes even if
they are of the same value i.e. order matters. So, name the notes: 20a, 20b, 100a, 100b and 200.

S = { (20a,20b), (20a,100a), (20a,100b), (20a,200), 20 possible

(20b,20a), (20b,100a), (20b,100b), (20b,200), outcomes

(100a,20a), (100a,20b), (100a,100b), (100a,200), For this situation we have only one
(100b,20a), (100b,20b), (100b,100a), (100b,200), R20a, only one R20b, only one R100a,
only one R100b and only one R200.
(200,20a), (200,20b), (200,100a), (200,100b) } Since each “type” of note occurs an
equal number of times, each of the
outcomes is equally likely (unlike the
situation used in Method 1).
 x 0 1 2
P(x) 6/20 = 0.3 12/20 = 0.6 2/20 = 0.1

Question 2
The probability mass function (PMF) for random variable Y is given below.

y –10 –5 0 5 10
P(Y=y) 0,07 k 0,26 0,38 0,17

Find the value of k and then construct the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of Y.

Q2 solution:
k = 1 – 0.07 – 0.26 – 0.38 – 0.17 = 0.12
Values for the CDF:
𝑃(𝑌 ≤ −10) = 𝑃(𝑌 = −10) = 0.07
𝑃(𝑌 ≤ −5) = 𝑃(𝑌 = −10) + 𝑃(𝑌 = −5) = 0.07 + 0.12 = 0.19
𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 0) = 𝑃(𝑌 = −10) + 𝑃(𝑌 = −5) + 𝑃(𝑌 = 0) = 0.07 + 0.12 + 0.26 = 0.45
𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 5) = 0.07 + 0.12 + 0.26 + 0.38 = 0.83
𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 10) = 0.07 + 0.12 + 0.26 + 0.38 + 0.17 = 1

y –10 –5 0 5 10
F(y) 0,07 0,19 0,45 0,83 1

Questions 3, 4 and 5 are based on the following information:

The probability mass function (PMF) for random variable Y is given below.

y 0,25 0,7 1,55 2,3 2,9 3,15 3,72 4,05

P(Y=y) 0,1 0,05 0,15 0,18 0,22 0,13 0,08 0,09

Question 3
What is the probability that Y is less than 3?
Q3 solution:
𝑃(𝑌 < 3) = 𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 2.9) = 0.1 + 0.05 + 0.15 + 0.18 + 0.22 = 0.7

Question 4
What is the probability that Y is at least 1?
Q4 solution:
Method 1
𝑃(𝑌 ≥ 1) = 𝑃(𝑌 ≥ 1.55) = 0.15 + 0.18 + 0.22 + 0.13 + 0.08 + 0.09 = 0.85
Method 2
𝑃(𝑌 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑌 < 1)
= 1 − 𝑃(𝑌 = 0.25) − 𝑃(𝑌 = 0.7)
= 1 − 0.1 − 0.05
= 0.85

Question 5
What is the probability that Y is smaller than 3,72 but at least 1,55?
Q5 solution:
𝑃(1.55 ≤ 𝑌 < 3.72)
= 𝑃(𝑌 = 1.55) + 𝑃(𝑌 = 2.3) + 𝑃(𝑌 = 2.9) + 𝑃(𝑌 = 3.15)
= 0.15 + 0.18 + 0.22 + 0.13
= 0.68

Questions 6 to 9 are based on the following information:

The cumulative distribution function (CDF) for random variable Y is given below.

y 0,25 0,7 1,55 2,3 2,9 3,15 3,72 4,05

F(y) 0,1 0,15 0,3 0,48 0,7 0,83 0,91 1

In order to use the CDF all the Note: This is the same random variable used in Questions
questions must be described in
3, 4 and 5 so your answers for Questions 6, 7 and 8 should
terms of the form 𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 𝑦).
be the same as those in Questions 3, 4 and 5.
Question 6
What is the probability that Y is less than 3?
Q6 solution:
𝑃(𝑌 < 3) = 𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 2.9) = 0.7

Question 7
What is the probability that Y is at least 1?
Q7 solution:
𝑃(𝑌 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑌 < 1)
= 1 − 𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 0.7)
= 1 − 0.15
= 0.85

Question 8
What is the probability that Y is smaller than 3,72 but at least 1,55?
Q8 solution:
𝑃(1.55 ≤ 𝑌 < 3.72)
= 𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 3.15) − 𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 0.7)
= 0.83 − 0.15
= 0.68

Question 9
What is the probability that Y equals 2,3?
Q9 solution:
𝑃(𝑌 = 2.3) = 𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 2.3) − 𝑃(𝑌 < 2.3)
= 𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 2.3) − 𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 1.55)
= 0.48 − 0.3
= 0.18
Question 10
The cumulative distribution function (CDF) for random variable X is shown below. Construct
the probability mass function (PMF) for X.

x 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
F(x) 0,05 0,19 0,37 0,59 0,81 0,88 1

+0.14 +0.18 +0.22 +0.22 +0.07 +0.12

Q10 solution:

x 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

P(X=x) 0,05 0,14 0,18 0,22 0,22 0,07 0,12

Question 11
Suppose a die is loaded in such a way that the probability of a number X coming up is
proportional to the square of the number i.e. P(X = x) = kx2 for x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
Find the value of k and then calculate the mean and standard deviation of X.
Q11 solution:

1 = 𝑘12 + 𝑘22 + 𝑘32 + 𝑘42 + 𝑘52 + 𝑘62

1 = 91𝑘
1
=𝑘
91

Mean:
𝐸(𝑋) = ∑ 𝑥 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥)
12 22 32 42 52 62
= (1) ( ) + (2) ( ) + (3) ( ) + (4) ( ) + (5) ( ) + (6) ( )
91 91 91 91 91 91

= 4.84615 …
≈ 4.85

Variance:

𝜎 2 = ∑ 𝑥 2 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) − 𝜇 2
 12 22 32 42 52 62
= 1 ( ) + 2 ( ) + 3 ( ) + 4 ( ) + 5 ( ) + 6 ( ) − (4.84615 … )2
2 2 2 2 2 2
91 91 91 91 91 91

= 1.5147 …
Use the unrounded value
Use the unrounded value
of the variance when doing
of the mean when doing
this calculation.
Standard deviation: this calculation.

𝜎 = √1.5147 … = 1.230 … ≈ 1.23

Question 12
You are playing a game with one of your friends. Your friend gives you R5 when you roll a 1
or a 2 on a balanced die. How much must you pay your friend when you roll a 3, 4, 5 or 6 if
this is a fair game?

Q12 solution:
Let 𝑋=amount you win.
Let 𝑦= amount you pay your friend when a 3, 4, 5 or 6 is rolled.

𝑥 𝑦 5
PMF of 𝑿 4 2
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) 6 6
𝑃(𝑋 = 5)
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑦) = 𝑃(𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑎 3, 4, 5 𝑜𝑟 6) = 𝑃(𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑎 1 𝑜𝑟 2)

The game will be a fair game if 𝐸(𝑋) = 0, so we will choose 𝑦 such that 𝐸(𝑋) = 0.
4 2
E(𝑋) = (𝑦) ( ) + (5) ( )
6 6
Let the left-hand-side equal zero and rearrange:
4 10
0 = (𝑦) ( ) +
6 6
𝑦 = 2.5
You must pay your friend R2.50 when you roll a 3, 4, 5 or 6.
Question 13
The probability distribution of X, the number of cylinders to be tuned up in the engines of
cars at a certain service station is shown in the probability mass function below.

x 2 4 6
P(X=x) 0.5 0.35 0.15
It costs R300 to tune up each cylinder. What is the expected cylinder tune up cost?
Q13 solution:

Method 1
First find the expected number of cylinders that will be tuned then multiply that number by
the cost per cylinder.
𝐸(𝑋) = (2)(0.5) + (4)(0.35) + (6)(0.15) = 3.3
𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 = (3.3)(300) = 990

Method 2
If 2 cylinders are tuned up (with probability 0.5) the cost will be (2)(300) = 600.
If 4 cylinders are tuned up (with probability 0.35) the cost will be (4)(300) = 1200.
If 6 cylinders are tuned up (with probability 0.15) the cost will be (6)(300) = 1800.
Let Y=cost

𝑦 600 1200 1800

𝑃(𝑌 = 𝑦) 0.5 0.35 0.15

𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 = 𝐸(𝑌) = (600)(0.5) + (1200)(0.35) + (1800)(0.15) = 990

Question 14
A union wage negotiator feels that the probabilities are 0.4, 0.3, 0.2 and 0.1 that the union
members will get a raise of R1,50 per hour, R1,00 per hour, 50c per hour and no raise at all
(respectively). What is the expected raise for the union members?
Q14 solution:
𝐸(𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑠𝑒) = (0.4)(1.5) + (0.3)(1) + (0.2)(0.5) + (0.1)(0) = 1
Question 15
An importer is offered a shipment of machine tools for R155,000. The probabilities that the
importer will be able to sell the shipment for R190000, R185000 or R167000 are 0.35, 0.48
and 0.17 respectively. What is the importer’s expected profit?
Reminder: profit = sales – cost

Q15 solution:
Method 1: Find the expected sales first and then find the expected profit.
𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 = 𝐸(𝑋)
= (190000)(0.35) + (185000)(0.48) + (167000)(0.17)
= 183690
So,
𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡
= 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 – 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡
= 183690 − 155000
= 28690
Method 2:
If the batch is sold for R190000 (with probability 0.35) then the profit is
190000 − 155000 = 35000
If the batch is sold for R185000 (with probability 0.48) then the profit is
185000 − 155000 = 30000
If the batch is sold for R167000 (with probability 0.17) then the profit is
167000 − 155000 = 12000
Let 𝑌=profit

𝑦 12000 30000 35000

𝑃(𝑌 = 𝑦) 0.17 0.48 0.35

𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡 = 𝐸(𝑌)

= (12000)(0.17) + (30000)(0.48) + (35000)(0.35)
= 28690