1 import numpy as np

2 import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

3 import geopandas as gpd
4 import pandas as pd
5 import os
6
7 # Parameters for the growth models
8 number_of_deaths = 3683
9 total_population = sum([25228, 11274, 25964, 12323, 97879, 32174, 23367, 60607, 11844, 36621, 29390, 14690, 14234,
10 41415, 34034, 35532, 10949, 8882, 27867, 17641, 29882, 6928, 15100, 15361]) # Total population
11 death_rate = (number_of_deaths / total_population) * 1000 # Death rate per 1,000 people
12 d = death_rate / 1000 # Convert death rate back to a proportion
13
14 # Municipalities data
15 merged_data = [
16 {'Municipality': 'Allen', 'Population (2020)': 25228, 'Annual Growth Rate': -0.002, 'Area': 47.60},
17 {'Municipality': 'Biri', 'Population (2020)': 11274, 'Annual Growth Rate': -0.009, 'Area': 24.62},
18 {'Municipality': 'Bobon', 'Population (2020)': 25964, 'Annual Growth Rate': 0.0197, 'Area': 130.00},
19 {'Municipality': 'Capul', 'Population (2020)': 12323, 'Annual Growth Rate': -0.006, 'Area': 35.56},
20 {'Municipality': 'Catarman', 'Population (2020)': 97879, 'Annual Growth Rate': 0.0085, 'Area': 464.43},
21 {'Municipality': 'Catubig', 'Population (2020)': 32174, 'Annual Growth Rate': -0.0055, 'Area': 217.02},
22 {'Municipality': 'Gamay', 'Population (2020)': 23367, 'Annual Growth Rate': -0.0013, 'Area': 115.10},
23 {'Municipality': 'Laoang', 'Population (2020)': 60607, 'Annual Growth Rate': -0.0026, 'Area': 246.94},
24 {'Municipality': 'Lapinig', 'Population (2020)': 11844, 'Annual Growth Rate': -0.0197, 'Area': 57.30},
25 {'Municipality': 'Las Navas', 'Population (2020)': 36621, 'Annual Growth Rate': -0.0075, 'Area': 282.61},
26 {'Municipality': 'Lavezares', 'Population (2020)': 29390, 'Annual Growth Rate': 0.0045, 'Area': 119.50},
27 {'Municipality': 'Lope de Vega', 'Population (2020)': 14690, 'Annual Growth Rate': 0.0, 'Area': 280.00},
28 {'Municipality': 'Mapanas', 'Population (2020)': 14234, 'Annual Growth Rate': 0.0031, 'Area': 117.85},
29 {'Municipality': 'Mondragon', 'Population (2020)': 41415, 'Annual Growth Rate': 0.0142, 'Area': 288.90},
30 {'Municipality': 'Palapag', 'Population (2020)': 34034, 'Annual Growth Rate': -0.0016, 'Area': 179.60},
31 {'Municipality': 'Pambujan', 'Population (2020)': 35532, 'Annual Growth Rate': 0.0153, 'Area': 163.90},
32 {'Municipality': 'Rosario', 'Population (2020)': 10949, 'Annual Growth Rate': 0.0085, 'Area': 31.60},
33 {'Municipality': 'San Antonio', 'Population (2020)': 8882, 'Annual Growth Rate': -0.0041, 'Area': 27.00},
34 {'Municipality': 'San Isidro', 'Population (2020)': 27867, 'Annual Growth Rate': 0.0094, 'Area': 255.90},
35 {'Municipality': 'San Jose', 'Population (2020)': 17641, 'Annual Growth Rate': 0.001, 'Area': 29.85},
36 {'Municipality': 'San Roque', 'Population (2020)': 29882, 'Annual Growth Rate': -0.0048, 'Area': 152.98},
37 {'Municipality': 'San Vicente', 'Population (2020)': 6928, 'Annual Growth Rate': -0.0261, 'Area': 15.80},
38 {'Municipality': 'Silvino Lobos', 'Population (2020)': 15100, 'Annual Growth Rate': -0.0028, 'Area': 224.20},
39 {'Municipality': 'Victoria', 'Population (2020)': 15361, 'Annual Growth Rate': 0.0076, 'Area': 186.70}
40 ]
41
42 df = pd.DataFrame(merged_data)
43
44 # Load shapefile
45 gdf = gpd.read_file('C:/Users/DWYNE S MARQUITA/OneDrive/Desktop/Graphing and Stuff/choropleth/gadm41_PHL_shp/gadm41_PHL_2.shp')
46
47 # Merge the geodataframe with the DataFrame
48 merged_gdf = gdf.merge(df, left_on='NAME_2', right_on='Municipality')
49
50 # Functions for logistic and exponential growth models
51 def exponential_growth(P0, r, t):
52 return P0 * np.exp(r * (t - 2020))
53
54 def logistic_growth(P0, r, K, t):
55 return K / (1 + (K / P0 - 1) * np.exp(-r * (t - 2020)))
56
57 # Create output directories for logistic and exponential growth
58 output_dir_logistic = 'C:/Users/DWYNE S MARQUITA/OneDrive/Desktop/Graphing and Stuff/choropleth/Logistic_Growth'
59 output_dir_exponential = 'C:/Users/DWYNE S MARQUITA/OneDrive/Desktop/Graphing and Stuff/choropleth/Exponential_Growth'
60 os.makedirs(output_dir_logistic, exist_ok=True)
61 os.makedirs(output_dir_exponential, exist_ok=True)
62
63 # Time steps from 2020 to 2120 (100 years)
64 years = np.linspace(2020, 2050, 31)
65
66 # Generate maps for each year using both growth models
67 for year in range(0, 31):
68 current_year = 2020 + year
69
70 # Calculate the carrying capacity for each municipality using logistic growth
71 merged_gdf['Carrying Capacity'] = (merged_gdf['Annual Growth Rate'] * merged_gdf['Population (2020)']) / d
72
73 # Calculate exponential and logistic population projections
74 merged_gdf['Exponential Population'] = merged_gdf.apply(
75 lambda row: exponential_growth(row['Population (2020)'], row['Annual Growth Rate'], current_year), axis=1)
76
77 merged_gdf['Logistic Population'] = merged_gdf.apply(
78 lambda row: logistic_growth(row['Population (2020)'], row['Annual Growth Rate'], row['Carrying Capacity'], current_year), axis=1)
79
80 # Calculate population density
81 merged_gdf['Exponential Population Density'] = merged_gdf['Exponential Population'] / merged_gdf['Area']
82 merged_gdf['Logistic Population Density'] = merged_gdf['Logistic Population'] / merged_gdf['Area']
83
84 # Cap the population density at 500 for visualization purposes
85 merged_gdf['Exponential Population Density'] = merged_gdf['Exponential Population Density'].clip(upper=500)
86 merged_gdf['Logistic Population Density'] = merged_gdf['Logistic Population Density'].clip(upper=500)
87
88 # Plot and save maps for exponential growth model
89 fig, ax = plt.subplots(1, 1, figsize=(10, 6))
90 ax.set_xlim([124, 125.5])
91 ax.set_ylim([12.2, 12.8])
92 merged_gdf.plot(column='Exponential Population Density', cmap='OrRd', legend=True, ax=ax,
93 legend_kwds={'label': "Population Density", 'orientation': "horizontal", 'shrink': 0.8},
94 vmin=0, vmax=500) # Set vmin and vmax for consistent legend
95 plt.title(f'Exponential Population Density for {current_year}', fontsize=14)
96
97 # Annotate the provinces with their names
98 for x, y, label in zip(merged_gdf.geometry.centroid.x, merged_gdf.geometry.centroid.y, merged_gdf['Municipality']):
99 ax.annotate(label, xy=(x, y), horizontalalignment='center', fontsize=8, color='black')
100
101 output_filename_exp = f'{output_dir_exponential}/exp_population_density_{current_year}.png'
102 plt.savefig(output_filename_exp)
103 plt.close()
104
105 # Plot and save maps for logistic growth model
106 fig, ax = plt.subplots(1, 1, figsize=(10, 6))
107 ax.set_xlim([124, 125.5])
108 ax.set_ylim([12.2, 12.8])
109 merged_gdf.plot(column='Logistic Population Density', cmap='Blues', legend=True, ax=ax,
110 legend_kwds={'label': "Population Density", 'orientation': "horizontal", 'shrink': 0.8},
111 vmin=0, vmax=500) # Set vmin and vmax for consistent legend
112 plt.title(f'Logistic Population Density for {current_year}', fontsize=14)
113
114 # Annotate the provinces with their names
115 for x, y, label in zip(merged_gdf.geometry.centroid.x, merged_gdf.geometry.centroid.y, merged_gdf['Municipality']):
116 ax.annotate(label, xy=(x, y), horizontalalignment='center', fontsize=8, color='black')
117
118 output_filename_log = f'{output_dir_logistic}/log_population_density_{current_year}.png'
119 plt.savefig(output_filename_log)
120 plt.close()
121