Computer Simulation Models
Computer Simulation Models
Healthcare Applications
Simulation Models
in Healthcare.
Process Mining.
Infected Recovered
Susceptible
…
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4
Date I R D
2/19/2020 3 0 0
What is the incubation time ?
2/20/2020 3 0 0
2/21/2020 20 0 1
2/22/2020 62 1 2
2/23/2020 155 2 3
What is the infection rate?
2/24/2020 229 1 7
2/25/2020 322 1 10 Should we have a lockdown
2/26/2020 453 3 12
2/27/2020 655 45 17
2/28/2020 888 46 21 How many we need to vaccinate
2/29/2020 1128 46 29 And for how long?
3/1/2020 1694 83 34
to stop the pandemic ?
3/2/2020 2036 149 52
3/3/2020 2502 160 79
3/4/2020 3089 276 107
3/5/2020
3/6/2020
3858
4636
414
523
148
197 How long will it last???
3/7/2020 5883 589 233
3/8/2020 7375 622 366
Computer simulations
• In many cases we:
• Do not know the formula for computing the exact outcome,
but
• Do know the process producing this outcome
SIR model
Recovered
Susceptible
Infected
Infected
Susceptible
Recovered
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Recovered
• S, I and R are usually measured
as fractions of the entire population: Infected
0 ≤ S, I, R ≤ 1
Susceptible
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_model,
Oleg Pianykh [email protected] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_modelling_of_infectious_disease
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𝑆 𝑛 + 1 = 𝑆 𝑛 − 𝐼 𝑛 × 𝛽 × 𝑆(𝑛)
… so we subtract newly
infected from S(n) to Each infected person
get updated S(n+1). infects β-fraction of
Note that S(n) currently susceptible
decreases
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𝑅 𝑛+1 =𝑅 𝑛 +𝐼 𝑛 ×𝛾
γ-fraction of infected
become recovered on
each day. Note that
R(n) increases
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𝐼 𝑛 + 1 = 𝐼 𝑛 + 𝐼 𝑛 × 𝛽What
× 𝑆(𝑛) −here???
do we put 𝐼 𝑛 ×𝛾
𝑅 𝑛+1 =𝑅 𝑛 +𝐼 𝑛 ×𝛾
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𝐼 𝑛 + 1 = 𝐼 𝑛 + 𝐼 𝑛 × 𝛽 × 𝑆(𝑛) − 𝐼 𝑛 × 𝛾
𝑅 𝑛+1 =𝑅 𝑛 +𝐼 𝑛 ×𝛾
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I(t)
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But slowing
down as we get
fewer to infect
I(t)
Exponential
growth at first Pandemic stops when
all are immune: S=0
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SIR code
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𝑆 𝑛 + 1 = 𝑆 𝑛 − 𝐼 𝑛 × 𝛽 × 𝑆(𝑛) − 𝑘 𝑆(𝑛)
𝐼 𝑛 + 1 = 𝐼 𝑛 + 𝐼 𝑛 × 𝛽 × 𝑆(𝑛) − 𝐼 𝑛 × 𝛾
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Impact of vaccination
Kvacc = 0.05
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More infected!
Second outbreak!
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• Q: How would you incorporate big and more real data into SIR
models?
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Source:
Oleg Pianykh [email protected]
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Lockdown
𝑆 𝑛 + 1 = 𝑆 𝑛 − 𝐼 𝑛 × 𝜷 × 𝑆(𝑛)
β(t)
Monitor solution to
see if a new lockdown
will be needed
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Specify entity
properties
Example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EALuWtg7RX4&t
=613s&ab_channel=EdwinCharlesBalakrishnan
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• Rule-based – what if the rules change ? And who knows the rules
anyway?
• Hard to match with real complex data – how do you know your
simulation model is correct?
• Simulation systems overloaded with too many parameters make
simulation models kind of an art, not science
• “What if” questions are great, but is it what we need? We need to
know the real drivers of the system behavior. But how can we
discover them?
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/A-common-joke-to-illustrate-the-fact-that-we-are-often-guided-by-the-availability-of_fig4_43135243
Oleg Pianykh [email protected]
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Arrival
Triage
Physician
Care
Departure
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• In some cases, we know virtually nothing about the internal system composition,
rules, or behavior. We cannot do system dynamics, we cannot do DES either, and
process mining does not reveal anything simple.
• Example: A really complex/messy emergency department, where patient flow can
probabilistically branch into numerous possibilities.
• Then we can approximate the system with a machine learning model such that:
• System parameters are used as features
• Individual system outputs are used as the target variable
• Reviewing partial dependence plots will inform us on how each feature impacts
the output, and what features can be the key drivers overall.
Read more
online
Oleg Pianykh [email protected]
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