Renewable Energy: Muhammad Amir Raza, Krishan Lal Khatri, Arslan Hussain

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Renewable Energy 190 (2022) 19e29

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Renewable Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene

Transition from fossilized to defossilized energy system in Pakistan


Muhammad Amir Raza a, *, Krishan Lal Khatri a, Arslan Hussain b
a
Department of Electrical Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology Karachi, 75270, Sindh, Pakistan
b
Department of Electrical Engineering, Indus University Karachi, 75500, Sindh, Pakistan

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Pakistan's energy sector has been in crises since 2005. Major reasons behind crises include huge
Received 5 October 2021 dependence on imported fossil assets and lack of integrated energy planning. These crises have chal-
Received in revised form lenged energy sector and require special attention to solve them through proper planning using energy
24 February 2022
modeling tools. In this research, Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) is used for
Accepted 9 March 2022
Available online 11 March 2022
modeling Pakistan's energy sector for period 2020 to 2070. Energy demand, production and CO2 emis-
sions are forecasted under the Progressive (PROG) and Renewable Energy Sources, Technologies and
Efficiency Measures (RESTEM) scenarios by considering techno-economic parameters. Results of this
Keywords:
Energy economics
study suggest that transition towards defossilized energy system is possible through RESTEM scenario.
Energy planning and policy Model results shows that energy demand for 2020 is 112 TWh and for 2070 is 2684 TWh. On supply side,
Sustainable energy development energy production for 2020 is 114 TWh and for 2070 it is 2696 TWh. Share of renewable sources in total
Clean environment energy mix is increased from 38.5% in 2021 to 59.1% in 2070 and share of non-renewable sources is
reduced from 53.1% in 2021 to 40.9% in 2070. CO2 emissions are also reduced from 153,083.7 million tons
to 56,152 million tons under RESTEM scenario.
© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction organizations including the “National Science Academies of the


Major Industrialized Nations” estimate that the lowest greenhouse
Energy system of the world has expended at a breakneck speed gas emission scenario will raise global surface temperature by
in over the last 50 years. An outstanding electricity framework has 0.3e1.7  C [2] and it would be 2.6e4.8  C in this highest emission
been positioned in most of the emerging and developed countries, scenario [3]. It is the belief of scientist that in future the climate
mostly ground on large-scale fossil fuels [1]. In the year 2021 en- change and its consequences will vary by region [4]. Fossil fuel
ergy demand around the world is increased by 4.5%, which is five combustion for electricity production, heat supply, industry, agri-
times greater than the year 2020. Majority of energy is produced culture and transportation is the major human made greenhouse
from fossil fuels hence the demand of coal, natural gas and liquid gases source. As suggested by a sustainable approach to fossil
fuels is increased by 4.5%, 3.2% and 1.3% respectively in the year consumption is one of the most fundamental methods to reduce
2021 as a result the CO2 emissions were also increased by 5%. In the total consumption [5]. For many years scientists and governments
same year the demand of renewables increased by 3% only. In the have been striving to find clean energy solution, and various in-
global energy mix, 80.2% of energy was generated from fossil fuels ternational concessions have been in place to stimulate green
and 11.2% energy was generated from renewable sources until the house gas emissions from the past to the present. The Paris
year 2019, which was previously 80.3% from fossil fuels and 8.7% Agreement (PA) is the most recent agreement to be established by
from renewables in the year 2009 [54]. The immense energy uti- the number of countries throughout the world. For the first time, PA
lization from fossil fuels releases huge amount of greenhouse gases brings all the countries together in a prevalent cause to propel
in the atmosphere, hence a drastic fall is seen in the world's at- ambitious efforts to cope up with the global warming and adapt to
mospheric condition. Climate change is the noticeable increase in its effects, with technological assistance to help developing coun-
the mean temperature of the earth's surface and many tries function more adequately [6]. The significant role of the PA is
to enhance the global response to the mitigation of global warming
risk by keeping global temperatures below 2  C and pursuing ef-
forts to keep temperature rises below 1.5  C [7].
* Corresponding author.
Each and every country around the globe has to limit the
E-mail address: amir.eed.neduet@gmail.com (M.A. Raza).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.03.059
0960-1481/© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
M.A. Raza, K.L. Khatri and A. Hussain Renewable Energy 190 (2022) 19e29

amount of greenhouse gas emissions in a specific way by 2030 as making the right choices today to shape tomorrow [12].
reported in Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), The objective of this study is to forecast the future energy de-
PA [8]. In this regard, countries are working to establish a clean mand, production and associated CO2 emissions in Pakistan for the
economy based on a low carbon system and uplifting their efforts to study period 2020 to 2070. This study suggests the transition path
reduce greenhouse gas emission in line with their INDC commit- from fossilized to defossilized energy system in Pakistan. To achieve
ments to meet the prescribed target in INDCs around the world. objective of this study, LEAP modeling tool is used, a power supply
Developed countries must reduce greenhouse gas emissions as path based on domestic energy resources was calculated for the
promised and must provide defined policy framework, financial period 2020 to 2070, in accordance with the government's plans
aid, innovative technology transfer and expanded measure building and policies to meet the project demand based on the electricity
support to developing countries. In this context, policy making and demand projections. Other environmentally friendly electricity
energy modeling are critical challenges of the early stages of producing options are also considered in this study. A PROG and
creating a sustainable energy system and is considered as one of the RESTEM scenarios were created to evaluate the heterogeneity of
weak area in emerging countries that developed countries must the future power generation. As a result, this research not only
support. sheds lights on current government power generating plans, but
Alleviation of greenhouse gas emissions and transition towards also estimates associated emissions based on the country's energy
clean energy system is controversial debate at international levels. resources and suggest future plans based on the Pakistan-INDC PA
The scientific society helps the political negotiation by providing a report/agreement.
diversity of future energy system extensions in terms of forecasting Next section of paper gives a brief overview of the research area.
future energy supply paths based on the available energy resources Section 3 pertain the information related to the development of
which helps the development of national energy system over the LEAP module for energy demand and production forecasting for the
coming decades. Achieving a balance between national economic period 2020 to 2070. Section 5 presents the simulation results of
development goals need to counter the global warming threats and energy demand, production and its associated CO2 emissions,
to safeguard energy security makes a significant challenge for which are further discussed and analyzed in detail. Finally, rec-
policymakers today [9]. Energy planning through energy modeling ommendations devised from this study are presented in conclusion
is useful strategy and approach for assisting developers and policy section.
makers in making informed decisions based on trustworthy data
and information obtained from energy models. To manage an en-
ergy system with a diverse range of renewable energy sources is 2. Research area
crucial for sustainable operation [10,11]. In this perspective, a
number of scientific studies conducted in many countries based on The developing country like Pakistan has a gross domestic
making 100% renewable energy system depending upon the product (GDP) of 314.58 billion US dollars and an annual growth
available energy sources and atmospheric condition. The summary rate of 5.8% in 2019. Pakistan is the world's 5th most populated
of such scientific studies is given in Table 1 and it is concluded that country and the second highly populated country in South Asia,
the development of 100% renewable energy system is possible by with 216 million inhabitants as of 2019 [31,32]. Pakistan's per capita
electricity usage is 418 kWh, which is significantly lower than the

Table 1
Summary of scientific studies based on making renewable energy system.

Country/Region Study Purpose

Southeast Europe [13] Analysis on incorporating biomass energy system and achieving zero emissions.
Brazil [14] Various renewable energy systems scenarios are compared in terms of maximum power availability, lower emissions, risk parameters and cost
analysis.
Northwest Europe [15] Evaluation on incorporating renewable sources and compared the cost of energy generation.
European Union Identified the optimal benefits of making renewable energy system such as social, environmental and economic benefits.
Countries [16]
Italy [17] Used two different modeling techniques for identifying the future energy mix and energy transition path.
Australia [18] Analyzed policies related to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and suggested clean technologies for utilizing natural energy resources.
Africa [19] Examined the current and future renewable electricity supply and demand situation and identifies the potential of power trade.
Denmark [20] Analysis on incorporating biomass, solar, wave and wind energy system and it suggested that renewable energy system is possible by utilizing
domestic energy assets.
Croatia [21] Discussed the role of energy storage devices in making renewable energy sources and presented its financial and technical analysis.
Portugal [22] Energy storage systems was developed for wind, ocean and solar energy resources and suggested the possible ways for making renewable
energy system.
Ireland [23] Renewable energy system developed based on hydrogen and biomass energy scenarios. Compared the financial and technical benefits of these
two energy scenarios and suggested optimal system for Ireland.
New Zealand [24] Suggested total energy mix with focus on different renewable energy sources like share of wind is 22%e25%, share of hydro is 53%e60%, share of
biomass is 1% and share of geothermal is 12%e14%.
Australia [25] Suggested clean energy technologies for power generation and compared potential benefits on achieving energy transition.
Aalborg Town [26] Municipality of Denmark region possess biomass, geothermal and wind energy sources. City is aiming to achieve renewable energy supply for
meeting energy demand and this study compared the cost of energy generation of these three renewable sources.
Frederikshavn Town [27] City of Denmark possess hydro, geothermal and waste resources for energy production. City is aiming to achieve renewable energy supply for
meeting energy demand of commercial, industrial and heat demand.
Island of Sao Vicente [28] Increasing 30% share of hydro power in the total energy supply and reduce dependency on fossil fuels.
Porto Santo Island [29] Increasing share of hydro and geothermal energy sources in energy supply and reduce dependency on fossil fuels.
Sichuan Province, China Sichuan has set the target to achieve the renewable energy supply based on the hydro and wind energy sources and reduces the greenhouse
[30] gasses. Energy supply pathways are evaluated based on the techno-economic feasibility.
This study This study suggests the transition path from fossilized to defossilized energy system in Pakistan. Forecasted future energy demand, production
and CO2 emissions. Exploited biomass, wind, solar and hydro sources for power generation and suggested how carbon emissions could be
minimizing to zero level.

20
M.A. Raza, K.L. Khatri and A. Hussain Renewable Energy 190 (2022) 19e29

global average. In 2007, the electricity shortage was predicted to be


1e2 GW, but by 2019 it had grown to 7 GW [33].
Increased population, increasing urbanization, higher living
conditions, and some level of industrial expansion have all
contributed to an increase in energy demand in Pakistan over the
years. Domestic, commercial, agricultural, and industrial sectors are
the biggest consumers of electricity [34]. The gap between supply
and demand has been expanding steadily over the years. Fig. 1
depicts Pakistan's load shedding data per industry from 2010 to
2020, while Fig. 2 depicts the actual power shortfall in power dis-
tribution firms [35]. The country's economic progress has been
severely compromised as a result of this demandesupply imbal-
ance. Pakistan's electrical crises are consequently a reflection of the
country's poor energy planning and policy framework [36].
Fig. 2. Power gap between supply and demand in Pakistan's power distribution
Pakistan's energy generation is primarily reliant on fossil fuels. companies.
Country has a large potential for hydro, other renewables, and
indigenous coal, but these resources have not been fully utilized
due to a variety of technological, economic, and political obstacles.
From 19,420 MW in 2008 to 34,605 MW in 2020, the country's
installed power generation capacity has only expanded by 18.75%
[37]. The main sources of energy are furnace oil, coal, gas, RLNG
(Liquefied-Compressed Natural Gas), nuclear, and hydropower. As
indicated in Fig. 3, these resources are employed to generate power.
Fig. 4 shows that thermal electricity has the highest percentage of
power generation when compared to hydro, nuclear, and renew-
able [35].
The total power capacity is not utilized fully due to lack of power
plant maintenance and inefficient use of energy resources [38].
Pakistan should focus on handling the potential of hydro and other
renewable energy resources to develop a valuable share of sus- Fig. 3. Energy sources for their capacity of power production.
tainable energy sources in the electricity generation mix [39,40].
Pakistan is one of the 10 countries that has been hardest damaged
by climate change. Every year, heat waves claim the lives of hun-
dreds of people [41]. In light of climate change, a proper energy mix
is necessary to meet current and future energy demand.
Pakistan has substantial indigenous energy resources. It is
estimated that the country has 185 gross register tones of coal re-
serves, of which roughly 7 gross register tones are technically
feasible and may be used to generate electricity using clean
methods [42]. Pakistan's hydropower capacity is estimated to be
100 GW, with 55 GW of that being technically feasible for power
generation. Solar, wind, and biomass each have a technical poten-
tial of 240, 62, and 8.6 million tons of oil equivalent/year that might
be harnessed to generate electricity [43,44]. Renewable energy
potential is just 4.4 times Pakistan's current energy consumption,
Fig. 4. Contribution of energy sources in total energy mix.
but due to weak governance and a lack of effective regulations only
33% renewable energy potential has been utilized so far [45].
3. Research methodology

Focus of this research is to increase the share of renewable en-


ergies and reduces share of fossil assets in total energy mix which
ultimately reduces the negative impacts of climate change for the
period 2020 to 2070. Methodological flow diagram is shown in
Fig. 5.

3.1. Input data and testing

Energy demand and production is closely concerned with socio-


economic, techno-economic and demographic constraints. In this
regards, key input parameters for LEAP energy demand module are
shown in Table 2 and key input parameters for energy production
module in LEAP are shown in Table 3. Exogenous parameters of
LEAP module are lifetime of energy technology, energy consumer's
Fig. 1. Sector-wise load shedding statistics of Pakistan (TWh). growth, cost of fuel and growth of GDP. Endogenous parameters of
21
M.A. Raza, K.L. Khatri and A. Hussain Renewable Energy 190 (2022) 19e29

Fig. 5. Methodological flow diagram.

Table 2
Key input parameters for energy demand module in LEAP.

Ref Key assumptions

[46] T&D losses for 2020 is 18%


[47] Population is 207.7 million and growth rate is 2.41%
[48] GDP is 314.58 billion US dollars and growth rate is 5.8%
[49] Number of households are 32.2 million and average household member is 6.4 people per house
[48] Agriculture GDP is 53.56 billion US dollars and growth rate is 3.81%
[48] Commercial GDP is 132.95 billion US dollars and growth rate is 6.43%
[48] Industrial GDP is 52.31 billion US dollars and growth rate is 5.80%
[50] Past consumption of electricity (1970e2020) is given in Fig. 6

LEAP module are sectorial energy demand (commercial, industrial, 3.2. Model formation
agricultural, domestic and others), generation capacity of each
energy source (Wind, natural gas, solar, biomass, coal, hydro, oil There are six energy modeling tools used around the globe for
and nuclear) and electricity intensity. the energy planning and policy formulation. The detailed
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M.A. Raza, K.L. Khatri and A. Hussain Renewable Energy 190 (2022) 19e29

Table 3
Key input parameters for energy production module in LEAP (2020) [32,33,43,50e52].

Power Plants Capacity (GW) Generation(GWh) Efficiency(%) Maximum Availability (%) Life time CO2 emissions per fuel type (Kg/Gj)

Hydro 9.991 39982 86.5 53 20 to 30 -


Solar 0.369 704.97 100 18 25 to 40 -
Wind 1.248 2882 100 35 20 to 30 -
Biomass 1.467 564.46 35 80 30 to 35 -
Natural Gas 3.711 27766 54 70 30 to 50 56.7
Furnace oil 4.768 1688 38.8 88 30 to 50 74
Coal 4.272 31782 33.0 75 30 to 50 101.2
RLNG 8.461 40966 54 70 30 to 50 66.7
Nuclear 1.232 8675 34.1 85 20 to 40 -

Fig. 6. Past electricity consumption data from 1970 to 2020 in terawatt hours.

Table 4
Merits and demerits of energy modeling tools.

Model Advantages Disadvantages

LEAP $ Required less training. $ Economic factors and linear programming optimization cannot be
$ Facilitate power planning for more than one strategic level. analyzed.
ENERGY PLAN $ Network of global users. $ Timespan is limited for planning, not more than 1 year.
$ Gives results on an hourly basis. $ Cannot provide direct results of the CO2 emissions.
$ The decision can be made on the analysis of both technical and economic
constraints.
TIMES $ Optimization of energy flow. $ Extensive data.
$ Capable of providing datagram's, to indicate the inflows and outflows of energy $ Complex analysis of data.
systems. $ More expertise required.
$ No database for techno-economical constraints.
ENPEP- $ The energy supply system followed the step function and facilitates simulations of $ Not user friendly.
BALANCE renewable. $ Complicated analysis.
MESSAGE $ Friendly user. $ Complex troubleshooting.
$ Easy accessibility of data management. $ Less options for power planning and difficult to run the
$ Manageable time-horizon. simulations.
MARKAL $ Capable of providing datagram's, to indicate the inflows and outflows of energy. $ Intensive data.
$ Provide results based on the least-cost solution. $ Complex analysis of data.
$ More expertise required.
$ No database for techno-economical constraints.

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M.A. Raza, K.L. Khatri and A. Hussain Renewable Energy 190 (2022) 19e29

evaluations of all six modeling tools are given in Table 4. Among all
modeling tools LEAP model is mostly preferred because it forecast
future energy demand, production and associated CO2 emissions.
Structure of LEAP model for the energy demand forecast and en-
ergy production is shown in Fig. 7 and Fig. 8. Energy demand
module forecast energy demand using demand analysis in LEAP.
Energy demand is forecasted based on energy consumption sectors
which are agriculture, industrial, domestic, commercial and others.
Input key assumptions for energy demand module are total pop-
ulation, households, consumers, past data related to energy con-
sumption (1970e2020), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and their
growth rates/projections etc. Energy production module forecast
energy production using the transformation module in LEAP. Do-
mestic energy assets are used for energy production and trans-
formed energy as input to energy product is modeled through a
diverse range of energy production technologies. Data required for
energy production module are base year exogenous capacity, en-
ergy production, CO2 emission per fuel type, system efficiency,
maximum availability, lifetime of system and selection of appro-
priate technology.

3.3. Forecast preparation

LEAP modeling framework for energy demand, production and


CO2 emissions is developed for the study period 2020 to 2070.
Energy demand, production and CO2 emissions are forecasted un- Fig. 8. Structure of the energy production forecast.

der two scenario's as given below:


4. Results and discussions
1. Progressive (PROG) scenario provides results based on running
energy policies of Pakistan's Government. This scenario in-
In this section, complete results are presented related to the
corporates the technical report related to energy planning and
future forecasting of energy demand, production and CO2 emis-
policies of Pakistan's Government such as Pakistan's Vision
sions under the PROG and RESTEM scenarios for the study period
(2025), Energy projects approved and commissioned under
2020 to 2070.
China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Indicative Gen-
eration Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) of 2018 and 2021.
2. Renewable Energy Sources, Technologies and Efficiency Mea- 4.1. Energy demand forecasting
sures (RESTEM) scenario provide results based on the sectorial
energy conservation measures, emphasize the penetration of Sector wise energy demand is forecasted under the PROG and
renewable energy and efficient use of clean technologies. The RESTEM scenarios for the study period 2020 to 2070 as shown in
aim of this scenario is incorporate the Pakistan-INDC, PA report Fig. 9 and Fig. 10. Estimated energy demand is continuously
and facilitate the use of energy efficiency measures such as increasing till 2070 due to the increment in energy consumers and
22%e25% for domestic sector, 20%e23% for commercial, 41% for population. Forecasted energy demand of Pakistan under the PROG
agriculture sector, 25% for industrial sector and 6% for others scenario is 3408.60 TW h and under the RESTEM scenario is
which are obtained from Energy Efficiency Roadmap for 2684.80 TW h in 2070 which was only 112.10 TW h in 2020 under
Pakistan (EERP) report published by World Bank [53]. This both scenarios. Comparison of energy demand forecasting under
scenario also facilitate the use of domestic energy sources both the scenarios is given in Table 5. The estimated annual growth
specially renewable sources for energy production and set up rate of each energy consumer group like industrial, commercial,
new clean and green technologies in the transformation model residential, agriculture and others under PROG scenario are 16.2%,
of LEAP for harnessing electrical power to meet energy goals 11.8%, 6.2%, 6.2% and 8.2% and under RESTEM scenario are 15.4%,
sustainably. 11.1%, 5.5%, 5.5% and 8.2% respectively.

Fig. 7. Structure of the energy demand forecast.

24
M.A. Raza, K.L. Khatri and A. Hussain Renewable Energy 190 (2022) 19e29

Fig. 9. Energy demand under the PROG scenario.

Fig. 10. Energy demand under the RESTEM scenario.

Table 5
Energy demand forecasting results under PROG and RESTEM scenario.

Scenarios Sector 2020 2045 2070

Progressive scenario Residential 49.2% 58.1% 28.3%


Commercial 7.0% 4.6% 8.1%
Industrial 22.9% 9.6% 44.6%
Agriculture 8.7% 9.2% 4.5%
Others 12.2% 18.5% 14.4.3%
Renewable energy sources, technologies and efficiency measures scenario Residential 49.2% 56.5% 27%
Commercial 7.0% 4.6% 7.9%
Industrial 22.9% 9.4% 42.5%
Agriculture 8.7% 9.0% 7.9%
Others 12.2% 20.6% 18.3%

4.2. Energy production forecasting various clean technologies and fuel mix. The forecasted energy
production under both scenarios is shown in Fig. 11 and Fig. 12.
Energy production is forecasted under the PROG and RESTEM Forecasted energy production of Pakistan under the PROG scenario
scenarios for the study period 2020 to 2070 by taking model using is 3515.40 TW h and under the RESTEM scenario is 2696.80 TW h in

25
M.A. Raza, K.L. Khatri and A. Hussain Renewable Energy 190 (2022) 19e29

Fig. 11. Energy production under the PROG scenario.

Fig. 12. Energy production under the RESTEM scenario.

2070 which was only 114 TW h in 2020 under both scenarios. from 8.3% 2021 to 10.9% in 2070. In RESTEM scenario, no energy
In PROG scenario, contribution of oil source in energy mix is production from oil is considered. Open cycle and closed cycle in-
16.4% in 2021 which will continuously decreasing till 2034 and tegrated gasification techniques are used for natural gas source and
finally become 0% in 2035. Contribution of hydro source will also modern carbon capture technologies are considered in imple-
decrease to 22% in 2070 from 35.1% in 2021. Contribution of menting power plants based on coal source. With the use of
biomass, solar and wind sources in 2021 are 3%, 0.4% and 1.2% modern and efficient technologies, the energy production would be
which are estimated to 0.4%, 0.7% and 0.8% in 2070 respectively. In sustainable and produces more energy as compared with the older
the same way the contribution of natural gas source will reduce to technologies which was used for harnessing energy from fossil
27% in 2070 from 36.6% in 2021. Only the contribution of coal and fuels.
nuclear sources increases from 17% to 7.6% in 2021 to 35.8% and
12.7% in 2070 respectively. 4.3. CO2 emissions forecasting
In RESTEM scenario, contribution of biomass, solar PV and wind
sources in total energy mix will increase to 10.8%, 12.4% and 16.3% As per the progressive scenario, Government of Pakistan is
in 2070 respectively. In addition, contribution of hydro would adding more thermal power plants which create a problem to limit
become 19.6% in 2070. The total contribution of renewable sources the CO2 emissions at low level that do not exploit the environment
becomes 59.1% in 2070 which was only 38.5% in 2021. The total to a large extent. In the base year 2020, 5314.74 million tons of CO2
contribution of fossil fuels in energy mix is reduced to 40.9% in emissions are produced under PROG and RESTEM scenarios. But
2070 from 53.1% in 2021. The contribution of nuclear is increased these CO2 emissions will rise to 153,083.7 million tons under PROG
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M.A. Raza, K.L. Khatri and A. Hussain Renewable Energy 190 (2022) 19e29

Fig. 13. CO2 emissions forecasting under the PROG scenario.

Fig. 14. CO2 emissions forecasting under the RESTEM scenario.

scenario and 56,152.74 million tons RESTEM scenario till 2070. Pakistan in future in terms of energy production and its associated
Fig. 13 and Fig. 14 shows the values of CO2 emissions produced from CO2 emissions. The results of this study are demonstrated below:
2020 to 2070 under both scenarios.
In PROG scenario, 63.3% of energy production is from the non-  PROG scenario is completely failed because energy demand is
renewable sources and 23.9% of energy production in Pakistan is not meet by energy production where non-renewable share is
from the non-renewable sources hence the CO2 emissions are 63.3% and renewable share is 23.9%. This scenario will not
projected at 1.7 times greater than the RESTEM scenario in 2070. In achieve INDC, PA sustainable goals in the energy sector because
the RESTEM scenario, 59.1% of energy is produced from renewable of large emissions that to reach at 153,083.7 million tons by
energy sources and 40.9% of energy is produced from non renew- 2070.
able sources using the cleaner and efficient technologies.  RESTEM scenario is favorable scenario and provides energy
The RESTEM scenario followed Pakistan-INDC, PA report. Under transition path from fossilized to defossilized energy system and
this report/agreement, Pakistan is responsible to achieve net zero produce sustainable energy production (renewable share is
emissions and accept transition from fossilized to defossilized en- 59.1% and non-renewable share is 40.9%), lower CO2 emissions
ergy system. This study helps in achieving transition, as such 20% to reach at 56,152.74 million tons in 2070 as per INDC, PA goals
reduction is noticed in CO2 emissions by 2030, 40% reduction is and require low cost because of lower energy demand.
noticed in CO2 emissions by 2050 and 60% reduction is noticed in  RESTEM scenario facilitate the use of modern and efficient
CO2 emissions by 2070. If this trend has been further sustained then technologies which ultimately reduces the energy demand by
definitely Pakistan will achieve net zero emission atmosphere in 25% as compared with the PROG scenario. RESTEM scenario is
near future. also financially suitable because on saving few energy units
would limit the need of 2e2.5 times capacity addition in the
5. Conclusion and recommendations system.
 RESTEM scenario facilitate the use of domestic energy assets and
This study provides a suggested transition path that how harnessed energy through cleaner technologies which makes
Pakistan should achieve a defossilized energy system. Energy de- Pakistan capable for meeting sustainable climate goals under
mand, production, and associated CO2 emissions are forecasted the INDC, PA.
under the PROG and RESTEM scenarios. Predictions under both  PROG scenario required more installed capacity because of
scenarios provide an alternative image that what is best for availability issues and lower capacity factor. RESTEM scenario

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M.A. Raza, K.L. Khatri and A. Hussain Renewable Energy 190 (2022) 19e29

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