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63 views3 pages

Probability Latex

Uploaded by

bhaskaryashu234
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Probability of Events: A Summary

This document summarizes key probability concepts, including intersections,


conditional probabilities, and independent, mutually exclusive, and dependent
events.

I. Core Concepts
Intersection (A ∩ B): The probability that both events A and B occur. It
is fundamental to conditional probability, and its calculation depends on the
relationship between A and B.

Conditional Probability (P (A|B)): The probability of event A occurring


given that event B has already occurred. It updates the probability of A based
on the knowledge that B has happened.

P (A ∩ B)
P (A|B) =
P (B)

II. Event Types and Formulas


A. Independent Events
Definition: The occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of the
other.

• Intersection: P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B)


• Conditional Probability: P (A|B) = P (A) and P (B|A) = P (B)
• Complements: P (Ac ∩ B c ) = P (Ac )P (B c )
• Multiple Events: P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = P (A)P (B)P (C) (and so on)

B. Mutually Exclusive (Disjoint) Events


Definition: Two events cannot occur simultaneously.

• Intersection: P (A ∩ B) = 0

1
• Union: P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)
Pn
• Multiple Events (Union): P (A1 ∪ A2 ∪ · · · ∪ An ) = i=1 P (Ai )
• Conditional Probability: If P (B) > 0, then P (A|B) = 0. (If B occurs,
A cannot.)

C. Dependent Events
Definition: The occurrence of one event affects the probability of the other.

• Intersection: P (A ∩ B) = P (A|B)P (B) = P (B|A)P (A)


P (A∩B) P (A∩B)
• Conditional Probability: P (A|B) = P (B) ; P (B|A) = P (A)

• Chain Rule: P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = P (A)P (B|A)P (C|A ∩ B) (Extensible)

III. Inclusion-Exclusion Principle


The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle calculates the probability of the union of two
events:

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
It applies to both dependent and independent events, correcting for double-
counting the intersection.

Example 1 (Independent Events): Rolling a Die


Imagine rolling a standard six-sided die. Let A be the event of rolling an
even number {2, 4, 6}, and B be the event of rolling a number greater than 3
{4, 5, 6}.

• P (A) = 3
6 = 1
2

• P (B) = 3
6 = 1
2

• P (A ∩ B) = 2
6 = 1
3 (Rolling a 4 or a 6)
1 1 1
P (A ∪ B) = 2 + 2 − 3 = 23 . This is the probability of rolling a 2, 4, 5, or 6.

Example 2 (Dependent Events): Drawing Cards


Consider drawing two cards from a standard deck without replacement. Let
A be the event that the first card is a heart, and B be the event that the second
card is a heart.

• P (A) = 13
52 = 1
4

• P (B|A) = 12
51

2
• P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B|A) = 1
4 × 12
51 = 1
17

• P (B) = P (B|A)P (A) + P (B|Ac )P (Ac ) = 1


4

1 1 1 15
P (A ∪ B) = 4 + 4 − 17 = 34 . This is the probability that at least one card
is a heart.

IV. Key Takeaways


• Conditional probability applies to all event types, most significantly to
dependent events.
• It updates probabilities based on new information.

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