| 70

Unit 10: Probability and Statistics

Retrieved from https://www.math.net/probability-and-statistics

Probability and statistics are two branches of mathematics concerning the collection, analysis, interpretation,
and display of data in the context of random events. They are often studied together due to their
interrelationship.

Basic probability terms

In order to discuss probability, it is important to be familiar with the terminology used. Below are some of
the terms commonly used in probability.
 Experiment - a procedure that results in well-defined outcomes. A random experiment is one in which
it is not possible to determine which exact outcome will occur.
 Outcome - any possible result contained in a sample space, S.
 Sample space - all possible outcomes of an experiment form a sample space. The sample space for
the flip of a fair coin is S = {heads, tails}.
 Event - an event is any subset of a sample space. Given an event, A, when an outcome that belongs to
the subset A occurs, an event has occurred. For example, given that event A is the event that a fair six-
sided die lands on an even number, the outcomes 2, 4, and 6 all satisfy event A. If any of those values
are rolled, event A has occurred. If 1, 3, or 5, are rolled, event A does not occur.
 Trial - Each flip of a coin, roll of a die, or iteration of an experiment is referred to as a trial. In the
experiment of flipping a coin to determine the number of heads, each flip of the coin is a trial in the
experiment.

Probability
The outcome of a random event, such as the flip of a coin, cannot be determined with certainty before the
event has occurred. However, if the possible outcomes are known (in this case heads or tails) probability
theory allows us to predict the chance of a given outcome occurring. In its most common usage, the probability
of something occurring is the proportion or fraction of times that a particular outcome is likely to occur.
Probability is represented by a numerical value between 0 and 1 which describes how likely an event is to
happen. A probability of 0 indicates that it is impossible for an event to happen while a probability of 1 means
that it is sure to happen. Probability is also often expressed using percentages. For example, a 0.5 chance of
heads or tails indicates that there is a 50% chance of either outcome occurring.
There are a number of ways to determine the probability of an event. One way is to speculate the probability
of the event. For example, assuming that a coin is fair, we can speculate that there is a 0.5 (½ or 50%) chance
that heads or tails occurs on a given flip of the coin. However, if we were to flip the coin many times and
observe and collect a large amount of data, and we find that the coin lands on heads 75% of the time, we may
make the conclusion that the coin is not fair; the coin seems skewed towards tails, assuming that our data
collection and the observed probability are well substantiated.
Below is an example of the calculation of the probability of a simple event.
Example
What is the probability of rolling a 5 with a fair 6-sided die?
For a perfectly balanced 6-sided die, the possibility of each side showing up is the same. Therefore, the
probability of rolling a 5 can be calculated as the number of ways the desired outcome can occur (1) out of
the total number of possible outcomes (6) or:
71 |

There is approximately a 16.67% chance of rolling a 5.

Types of events
The above example is the simplest form of probability calculation. There are many other types of events in
probability and it is important to understand each type since the calculation of their respective probabilities
differs.
Simple event

A simple event is an event that has only one outcome. For example, when flipping a coin, the outcome of the
coin landing on heads is an example of a simple event; the coin landing on tails is an example of another
simple event. The probability of a simple event is calculated as:

Compound event

A compound event is an event that includes two or more simple events. Flipping a coin twice and having it
land on heads twice is an example of a compound event. The probability of the coin landing on heads on the
first flip is 50%, and the probability of it landing on heads on the second flip is also 50%. The probability of
a coin landing on heads twice in a row is a compound probability that is computed as the product of the
probabilities of the independent events, or:
0.5 × 0.5 = 0.25
Independent events

Independent events are events in which the outcome of one event is unaffected by the outcome of another
event. Flipping a coin is an example of an independent event because on each flip of a fair coin, the probability
of acquiring a heads or tails is equal. Regardless of the outcome on a previous flip of a coin, a subsequent flip
still has a 50% chance of tails occurring and a 50% chance of heads occurring.
Dependent events

Dependent events are events in which the outcome of an event is affected by the outcome of some other event.
For example, given that a bag contains 3 blue marbles and 2 red marbles, if one of the marbles is removed
from the bag, there is a 60% chance that the marble is blue and a 40% chance that the marble is red. If a blue
marble is removed from the bag and is not replaced, the probability of selecting a blue marble on a subsequent
trial is no longer 60%. Since there are now 2 blue marbles and 2 red marbles in the bag, the probability of
selecting either is 50%. Since the probability in the subsequent trial is affected by an outcome in the first, this
is an example of a dependent event.
Mutually exclusive events

Mutually exclusive events are events that cannot occur at the same time. The outcome of heads or tails when
flipping a coin are examples of mutually exclusive events. In a single flip of a coin, the coin can only land on
heads or tails. If it lands on heads, it means that the coin did not land on tails (and vice versa), since both
cannot occur at the same time.
 | 72

Complementary events

The complement of an event, A, denoted AC, is comprised of all outcomes that are not contained in event A.
For example, a fair six-sided die has the possible outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Given that event A is the
probability of rolling an even number, or A = {2, 4, 6}, its complement is A C = {1, 3, 5}. The probabilities of
A and AC must therefore sum to 1. In other words:
P(A) + P(AC) = 1
P(AC) = 1 - P(A)

Sta s cs
Statistics is a discipline that involves collecting, organizing, displaying, analyzing, interpreting, and presenting
data. It is widely used in scientific research, when considering social problems, and for industrial purposes,
among many other applications.
On a base level, it involves proper data collection through sampling when population data is not known or
cannot be determined, designing and conducting experimental and observational studies, and formulating
conclusions or re-designing the studies based on the data. Two distinct branches of statistics are descriptive
statistics and inferential statistics.
Descriptive statistics

Descriptive statistics is the branch of statistics concerned with summarizing data, be it in graphical, tabular,
or some other form. A descriptive statistic is a summary statistic used to describe data. Examples of descriptive
statistics include the mean, median, and mode; these are classified as measures of central tendency and are
one of the key types of descriptive statistics that provide information about a central or typical value in
a probability distribution. Measures of variability are another classification of descriptive statistic; they
describe the spread of the data (how stretched or squeezed the distribution is) and include statistics such as the
standard deviation, variance, and more.
The figure below shows two types of figures used to depict descriptive statistics.

Histogram Box-and-whisker plot

In particular, the histogram and the curve fitted to it indicate a normal distribution, which is a commonly
encountered probability distribution throughout statistics. Many natural phenomena exhibit a normal
distribution, giving way to inferential statistics, which allows us to make inferences about data based on their
probability distributions as well as other factors.
73 |

Inferential statistics

In the real world, it is often not possible, or highly impractical to collect large amounts of data from populations
of interest. Ideally, we would be able to acquire all the data we need for a population and make informed
decisions based on the descriptive statistics they provide. Realistically, since this is rarely feasible, we instead
make inferences about populations as a whole based on samples of said populations and the use of statistical
methods; this is the goal of inferential statistics.
For example, we may want to know the mean score on the AP Physics exam for all high school students in the
United States. Because of the large scale, it would be both difficult and expensive to obtain the results of every
single student in the US. In such a case, inferential statistics can be used to estimate the mean score by
collecting samples from the population of high school students, then using the sample data to make inferences
or predictions about the mean score of the population as a whole.
When studying random phenomena, we may want to assess whether any observed differences can be attributed
to some given input, or if the observed differences can be attributed fully to random chance. This is another
area in which inferential statistics can be used through the process of statistical hypothesis testing. There are
many different types of statistical hypothesis tests that can be used depending on the conditions of the
experiment. In general, the process involves a statement of no difference, referred to as the null hypothesis,
and a comparison of what is observed to what we would expect based on this null hypothesis. Through use of
statistical methods, we can then draw conclusions about the significance of observed data.