Selena Belfort

Southern New Hampshire University

IHP 330: Principles of Epidemiology

Haron Siringi, MD

October 19, 2024

 A Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: A Teaching Case-Study

Population:

COVID-19 is a respiratory disease that targeted the respiratory track, induced by acute

respiratory syndrome called Coronavirus 2. This disease initiated in Wuhan, China in the year of

2019, December and had spread worldwide. This created a worldwide global pandemic. COVID-

19 has a high transmission rate, which leads to a threat to the population. The Targets population

was the elderly and individuals with underlying health conditions. Even with a targeted

population the virtues affected all ages. The population that are infected by COVID-19 had

factors that encountered risk, such as age, socioeconomic status, and health status, which affected

the severity who is infected. Pneumonia was connected to the coronavirus genes, Symptoms

included typical cold symptoms to extreme conditions like intense acute respiratory syndrome

(SARS-CoV) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) (Bashier, 2020).

There are multiple social and behavioral health determinants. People who are in the lower

financial class have less access to healthcare and preventive measures. Decreased finances can

cause poor nutrition and higher stress levels. This creates a systemic effect for poor health

outcomes. Individual personal hygiene practices influence the risk of transmission, decreasing

the risk when an individual engages in hand hygiene, mask, and social distancing. COVID-19 is

at a higher population with crowed places for close contact encounters. This virus is spreading

rapidly in highly populated areas.

There are multiple health disparities. An induvial socioeconomic status. A member’s

access to healthcare. Often, not every person has the same access to healthcare services. Quality
of the care that is given, this aspect can vary drastically, which affects the overall outcome of all

different age frames. Another disparity is health literacy of an individual. The lack of knowledge

or education of resources and understanding one’s health can alter the risk for population. Age

and age make a patient more susceptible to a severe illness related to their chronic health

conditions. Age and social factors, such as limited access to health care and isolation of an

elderly individual create poorer health outcomes.

After reviewing the public health issue, it has shown the background of the transmission

and factors that created COVID-19 to spread. The initial outbreak was a seafood market in

Wuhan, China December 2019. Early cases connected to the seafood market. This highlights the

importance of the trade market to monitor and control wildlife trade to prevent outbreaks.

COVID-19 is a contagious airborne/droplet transmissible disease. This spreads through a person

coughing, sneezing, or talking in a close parameter of another individual. Regardless of choice,

people are constantly interacting with another.

Zhu noted that older individuals, males, and those living in densely populated areas were

at a higher risk of getting the disease (Zhu, 2020). Studies include increased infection rates

among low-grade health outcomes. A person’s perception of education can impact their quality of

life, in lower underprivileged populations. Health gaps connected with urbanization, social and

behavioral factors concluded the novel coronavirus outbreak. It is shown in studies that highly

populated areas and cultural practices were affected such as the extensive market trade. Racial

and ethnic minorities are more vulnerable to increased severity in symptoms, exposure, and

potential fatalities from COVID-19 as proven in studies.

Health Issue:
 What is Covid-19? Covid-19 is a respiratory disease that is from the virus called SARS-

COV-2. “Covid-19 is an infection caused by Sars-Cov-2 virus. Older people and those with

underlying medical conditions like cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease,

or cancer are more likely to develop serious illnesses. Anyone can get sick with COVID-19 and

become seriously ill or die at any age.” (Who, COVID-19, 2024) There are multiple risk factors

that include the population of older adults who are at higher risk, existing comorbidities the

patient may have, such as heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder, diabetes,

emphysema, interstitial lung diseases and immune system diseases. People who have low

compromised immune systems are at higher risk.

Mode of Transmission

Covid-19 is transmitted when someone who is infected with the virus breathes out

droplets that are spreadable via airborne. “Other people can breathe in these droplets and

particles, or these droplets and particles can land on others' eyes, nose, or mouth. In certain

circumstances, these droplets may contaminate the surfaces they touch.” (CDC, Covid-19,

2024). With an algorithm it can show if you have been exposed to covid depending on if you

have been around someone who has been infected with certain parameters.

Incidence and Prevalence

To calculate the incidence of covid, the number of new cases divided by the population at

risk during a time frame. (446/1,400,000,000) 3.186 or 3.19 rounded x 10^n rate is 0.031.

Incidence= (446 cases/1,400,000,000) * 1,000,000,000=318 cases per billion

 Calculating prevalence is the total case divided by the population. (12,000 /

7,821,000,000) 0.00000153x 100. Prevalence- (12,131 cases/7,821,000,000) *

1,000,000,000=1,551 cases per billion.

Day Total reported Confirmed Equation Results

Case Counts

1/21 466 446/7821000000=5.702595576013298 x100,000= 0.005702

0.0057025955760133=0.005702

1/22 579 579 ÷ 7,821,000,000 = 7.403145377828922 x 0.007403

100,000 = 0.0074031453778289 = 0.007403

1/23 588 581 ÷ 7,821,000,000 = 7.518220176448025 x 0.007518

100,000 = 0.007518220176448 = 0.007518

1/24 857 57 ÷ 7,821,000,000 = 1.095767804628564 x 100,000 = 0.010958

0.0109576780462856 = 0.010958

1/25 1323 1323 ÷ 7,821,000,000 = 1.691599539700806 x 100,000 = 0.016916

0.0169159953970081 = 0.016916

1/26 2029 2029 ÷ 7,821,000,000 = 2.594297404423987 x 100,000 = 0.025943

0.0259429740442399 = 0.025943

1/27 2836 2836 ÷ 7,821,000,000 = 3.626134765375272 x 100,000 = 0.036261

0.0362613476537527 = 0.036261

1/28 4654 4654 ÷ 7,821,000,000 = 5.950645697481141 x 100,000 = 0.05951

0.0595064569748114 = 0.05951

1/29 6163 6163 ÷ 7,821,000,000 = 7.880066487661424 x 100,000 = 0.0788

0.0788006648766142 = 0.0788

1/30 7882 7882 ÷ 7,821,000,000 = 1.007799514128628 x 100,000 = 0.10078

0.1007799514128628 = 0.10078

1/31 9981 9918 ÷ 7,821,000,000 = 1.268124280782509 x 100,000 = 0.12681

0.1268124280782509 = 0.12681
2/1 12131 12131 ÷ 7,821,000,000 = 1.551080424498146 x 100,000 0.1551

= 0.1551080424498146 = 0.1551

Day Total Reported Confirmed Cases Equation Results

1/21 446 446 ÷ 49411 = 0.90%

0.0090263301693955 x 100 =

0.9026330169395479 = 0.90

1/22 579 579 ÷ 49411 = 1.17%

0.0117180384934529 x 100 =

1.171803849345287 = 1.17

1/23 588 588 ÷ 49411 = 1.19%

0.0119001841695169 x 100 =

1.190018416951691 = 1.19

1/24 857 857 ÷ 49411 = 1.73%

0.0173443160429864 x 100 =

1.734431604298638 = 1.73

1/25 1323 1323 ÷ 49411 = 2.68%

0.026775414381413 x 100 =

2.677541438141305 = 2.68

1/26 2029 2029 ÷ 49411 = 4.11%

0.041063730748214 x 100

=4.106373074821396 = 4.11

1/27 2836 2836 ÷ 49411 = 5.74%

0.0573961263686224 x 100 =

5.739612636862237 = 5.74

1/28 4654 4654 ÷ 49411 = 9.42%

0.0941895529335573 x 100 =

9.418955293355731 = 9.42

1/29 6163 6163 ÷ 49411 = 12.47%

0.1247293112869604 x 100 =

12.47293112869604 = 12.47

1/30 7882 7882 ÷ 49411 = 15.95%

 0.1595191354151909 x 100 =

15.95191354151909= 15.95

1/31 9918 9918 ÷ 49411 = 20.07%

0.2007245350225658 x 100 =

20.07245350225658 = 20.07

2/1 12131 12131 ÷ 49411 = 24.55%

0.2455121329258667 x 100

=24.55121329258667 = 24.55

Mortality Rate

To calculate the mortality rate, you must divide the total number of deaths by the

number of individuals at risk and multiply the results by one thousand. The mortality rate in this

study is 100- total number of cases, which equals a rate of 2.026%.

Odds Ratio

With the odds ratio greater than one it appears that for the study people who are not of

white race (black 4.81 odds ratio, south Asian 2.05 odds ratio), males, low socioeconomic status

are more at risk. People who exhibit behavioral factors such as alcohol use (2.78), smokers

(2.25) have higher risk. People with chronic comorbidities cardiovascular disease, chronic

bronchitis and diabetes are highest among cardiovascular diseases to be at risk with 2.25 versus

chronic bronchitis with the odds ratio 1.48.

Odds ratio equation →

(28 x 170)/ (29x 132) = 4760/ 3828 = 1.2

(29x 213)/ (30 x 170) = 6177/ 5100 = 1.2

 (30 x 259) / (31/ 213) = 7770/ 3813 = 2.0

As referred to in the study, the number of deaths from COVID-19 increases as the odd

ratio increases.

There is a compatible link between population and public health. COVID-19 can impact

anyone but targets vulnerable induvial because of the social and behavioral determinants. There

is a high prevalence in the populations with increased rates and risk of chronic diseases. These

diseases can conclude heart disease, diabetes, cancer, obesity. It is referenced to people with risk

factors who are more susceptible to get serve illness and complications of COVID-19. When

studying the population and health issues related to COVID-19, you can gain knowledge on how

individuals are affected in selective areas during the pandemic.

In conclusion on this study, the primary source stemmed from initial outbreak at the

seafood market in Wuhan, China. This expresses the importance of monitoring and controlling

wildlife trade and food markets to use preventative measures for future outbreaks. COVID-19 is

transmitted via airborne, which includes transmission respiratory droplets. To reduce

transmission is to social distancing with others.

Prevention:

Primary prevention is concluded by the importance of maintaining an equal lifestyle,

such as exercise and overall well-being, to decrease the risk of developing illnesses. Initiative-

taking measures are essential in prevention of disease. Primary prevention for COVID-19 would

be to obtain vaccinations, sanitation of areas and surfaces frequently, hand hygiene, mask-

wearing in populated areas, covering sneezes or coughs with hands or elbows with handwashing

after and maintaining physical/social distance. These encounters are important to reduce
exposure to the virus, which reduces the risk of illness, hospitalization, or mortality due to

COVID-19.

Vaccinations are recommended for those at high risk with compromised immune systems.

Increasing immunity is important; this can be achieved through consistent physical activity, diet

habits and supplementation with vitamins. Foods that are high in nutrients are leafy greens in

citrus, nuts, and lean proteins.

Routine hand washing and surface sanitization can help reduce viruses and bacteria,

which prevent infections. When sneezing and coughing, you cover yourself with arms or masks

is a preventive way to prevent the spread of germs. This can protect both the individual and their

nearest contacts. Social distancing, also known as physical distance, overrides the transmission

of the virus.

The conclusion of primary prevention is to decrease the risk of infections before they

occur. Understanding the dynamics of transmission and demographic factors can help in effective

prevention strategies. Implementing these measures to the community is important to controlling

the spread of outbreaks.

Secondary prevention concludes knowledge of early detection of diagnoses by routine

medical checkups and screenings. “Similarly, Quaresma, Nalini and Cirillo suggested secondary

prevention strategies should be community-based to ensure that they are aware and respect “local

customs and cultural beliefs” (Quaresma V,2020.) This prevention helps decrease severity by

early detection and treatment within timely manner. Community base testing for COVID-19,

such as at-home testing kits can be preventive. Screening can conclude PCR tests, isolating

infected patients and routine temperature checks are important during a pandemic. Notifying the
individuals that were exposure to decrease exposure to others, it a measure to utilize. This is

important to secondary prevention measures.

Tertiary prevention concludes early identification and management of medical conditions

through routine screenings and tests to prevent the condition from exacerbating. In this phase to

decrease the effects of COVID-19. In reference to the case study, the strategy includes providing

holistic care to individuals who are positive or are exposed to COVID-19. Tertiary helps manage

symptoms and complications that can impact the quality of life. Adequate medical treatment is

important for improving outcomes following the effects of COVID-19.

All the following levels of prevention offer persist stages of maintaining a disease and

utilizing multiple methods to decrease its impact on individuals. The primary prevention strategy

helps maintain health issues by reducing exposure by risk factors. Secondary prevention

concludes early detection and task to slow the progression. Tertiary prevention concludes with

managing the disease when affected as it advances in stages to prevent complications and

increase the overall quality of life.

Conclusion:

The research question formulated is: “What are the long-term health condition

outcomes of the Novel Coronavirus on patients who have been exposed or have recovered, and

how do these effects differ across various demographic groups?” This question would be an

observational research guideline that is compatible with this question. Observational research

helps researchers to monitor the complications, results, and effects of various factors without

engaging in contact. Observation approach helps analyze outcomes by levels of urbanization,

social behaviors, and population characteristics without the variables. The reasoning for
observational research methods to investigate is because it understands the progression of

COVID-19 without direct interventions. This design allows for the observation of the virus’s

outcomes in real-world contexts, across diverse populations, and over time.

The Novel Coronavirus is crucial for improving worldwide by educating our

understanding of health disparities, developing practical interventions, and informing new health

policies. The research helps implement planning, control, and prevention in specific areas. Being

knowledgeable on the long-term effects of COVID-19 will help health groups implement

effective measures to address the environmental, sociodemographic, and political factors. This

can help research being more effective with resource allocation and control measures to decrease

the effects of COVID-19. Integrating more research in addition can help contribute to improving

health outcomes, fight against the pandemic, and manage future health pandemics.
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