MMSS-04 Rev.

1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 6

Tropical Storm JULIAN
Issued at 11:00 AM, 28 September 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.

“JULIAN” INTENSIFIES INTO A TROPICAL STORM.

Location of Center (10:00 AM)

The center of Tropical Storm JULIAN was estimated based on

all available data at 465 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
(18.8 °N, 126.0°E)

Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center,
gustiness of up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 1000 hPa
Present Movement

South southeastward slowly

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 380 km
from the center
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
Center Position Intensity Movement
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW dir. and
Location Cat. speed (km/h)
(°N) (°E) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 18.2 125.4 400 km East of Aparri, Cagayan 75 TS WSW Slowly
28 September 2024
24-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 18.3 124.6 315 km East of Aparri, Cagayan 85 TS W Slowly
29 September 2024
36-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 18.7 123.8 230 km East of Aparri, Cagayan 110 STS WNW 10
29 September 2024
48-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 19.4 123.0 160 km East of Calayan, Cagayan 130 TY NW 10
30 September 2024
60-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 20.0 122.4 65 km Southeast of Basco, Batanes 155 TY NW 10
30 September 2024
72-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 20.9 121.9 In the vicinity of Itbayat, Batanes 165 TY NNW 10
01 October 2024
96-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 23.0 122.7 260 km North Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes 165 TY NNE 10
02 October 2024
120-Hour Forecast
880 km North Northeast of Extreme Northern
8:00 AM 27.9 125.6 155 TY NNE 25
Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)
03 October 2024

Page 1 of 3

Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: RPG

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
 MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 6

Tropical Storm JULIAN
Issued at 11:00 AM, 28 September 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao

Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the northern and eastern portions
of Isabela (San Pablo, Divilacan, Maconacon, Palanan, Cabagan, Santa Maria,
1 Tumauini, Ilagan City, San Mariano, Santo Tomas, Delfin Albano, Dinapigue),
Apayao, and Ilocos Norte
- -

Wind threat:
Strong
Warning lead time: 36 hours
winds Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Refer to Weather Advisory No. 6 issued at 11:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Storm JULIAN.

Severe Winds

The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be
slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered
from the prevailing wind direction.

• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.

The highest Wind Signal that may be hoisted during the occurrence of JULIAN is Wind Signal No. 4.

Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of Tropical Depression JULIAN may also bring strong to gale-force
gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):

• Tomorrow (29 September): Aurora, CALABARZON, Romblon, and Bicol Region

• Monday (30 September): Aurora, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Romblon, and Bicol
Region.

Page 2 of 3

Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: RPG

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
 MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 6

Tropical Storm JULIAN
Issued at 11:00 AM, 28 September 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook

Very rough sea condition over the following coastal waters:

• Up to 5.0 m over the seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands
• Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts (including all motor bancas of any type or tonnage). Mariners of these vessels are
advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor. For larger vessels, operating in these conditions required experience and
properly equipped vessels.

Rough sea condition over the following coastal waters

• Up to 4.0 m over the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan
• Up to 3.5 m over the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte and the remaining seaboard of Cagayan
• Up to 3.0 m over the seaboard of Isabela
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions,
especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels

Moderate sea condition over the following coastal waters:

• Up to 2.5 m over the seaboard of the northern portion of Aurora and the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea
and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.

A Gale Warning may be hoisted over Batanes and Babuyan Islands this afternoon or evening.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

• JULIAN is forecast to move west southwestward or westward today, then generally northwestward tomorrow (29 September)
through Monday (30 September) towards the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area, before accelerating north northeastward over
the waters east of Taiwan on Tuesday (1 October) onwards. On the track forecast, a landfall or close approach scenario on
Monday over Batanes and/or Babuyan Islands is not ruled.
• JULIAN will continue to intensify throughout the forecast period and reach typhoon category on Monday. There is an
increasing likelihood of rapid intensification, and the possibility of reaching super typhoon category is not ruled
out. This tropical cyclone will be closest to Batanes and/or Babuyan Islands at or near peak intensity.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all
necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these
hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings,
thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA

Page 3 of 3

Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: RPG

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines