Business Statistics
Business Statistics
MBA CLASSES
ST
I Semester
Business Analytics
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Module-I 8 Hours)
Descriptive Statistics: Measures of Central Tendency - Problems on Measures of Dispersion – Karl
Pearson Correlation, Spearman’s Rank Correlation, Simple and Multiple Regression (Problems on
Simple Regression Only).
Module-II
Probability Distribution: Concept and Definition - Rules of Probability – Random Variables –
Concept of Probability Distribution – Theoretical Probability Distributions: Binomial, Poisson,
Normal and Exponential – Baye’s Theorem (No Derivation) (Problems Only on Binomial, Poisson
and Normal).
Module- III
Decision Theory: Introduction – Steps of Decision-Making Process – Types of Decision-Making
Environments – Decision-Making under Uncertainty – Decision-Making under Risk – Decision Tree
Analysis (Only Theory).
Design of Experiments: Introduction – Simple Comparative Experiments – Single Factor
Experiments – Introduction to Factorial Designs.
Module-IV (OnlyTheory)
Cluster Analysis: Introduction – Visualization Techniques – Principal Components –
Multidimensional Scaling – Hierarchical Clustering – Optimization Techniques.
Factor Analysis: Introduction – Exploratory Factor Analysis – Confirmatory Factor Analysis.
Discriminant Analysis: Introduction – Linear Discriminant Analysis
Module-V
Foundations of Analytics: Introduction – Evolution – Scope – Data for Analytics – Decision
Models – Descriptive, Predictive, Prescriptive – Introduction to Data Warehousing – Dashboards
and Reporting – Master Data Management (Only Theory).
Module-VI
Linear Programming: Structure, Advantages, Disadvantages, Formulation of LPP, Solution using
Graphical Method. Transportation Problem: Basic Feasible Solution using NWCM, LCM and VAM,
Optimisation using MODI Method.
Assignment Model: Hungarian Method – Multiple Solution Problems – Maximization Case –
Unbalanced – Restricted.
Module-VII
Project Management: Introduction – Basic Difference between PERT & CPM – Network
Components and Precedence Relationships – Critical Path Analysis – Project Scheduling – Project
Time-Cost Trade Off – Resource Allocation.
Instruction: Equal weightage is given for both theory and problems in the ratio of 60:40.
SR NAME OF CHAPTER PAGE
NO. NO.
1 Unit- I
Chapter 1: Role of Statistics 1
Chapter 2: Correlation 33
Chapter 3: Regression 47
2 Unit- II
Chapter 4: Probability 55
Chapter 5: Probability Distributions 64
3 Unit- III
Chapter 6: Decision Theory
Chapter 7: Design of Experiments
4 Unit-IV
Chapter 8: Cluster Analysis
Chapter 9: Factor Analysis
Chapter 10: Discriminant Analysis
5 Unit- V
Chapter 11: Foundations of Analytics
Chapter 12: Linear Programming
Chapter 13: Assignment Model
Chapter 14: Project Management
6 73
CHAPTER: 15 HYPOTHESIS
EXAM PAPER 108
TABLE 143
1
variable. For example, a railway office will need information regarding average
number of passengers carried by various trains.
1. Simple Arithmetic Mean: When all the values of a statistical series are given
equal importance, the total of the values is divided by number of items. It is called
Simple Arithmetic Mean.
DEFINITION OF AVERAGE
“Average is an attempt to find one single figure to describe whole of figures.”
TYPES OF AVERAGES
The following are the important types of averages:
Arithmetic Mean
Median
Mode
ARITHMETIC MEAN
Calculation of simple Arithmetic mean – Individual Observations.
X = ∑X
N
Illustration: 1
The following table gives the monthly income of 10 employees in an office:
Income (`) 4780 5760 6690 7750 4840 4920 6100 7810 7050 6950.
Direct – Method
The formula for computing mean is
X = ∑ fX
N
Illustration: 2
From the following data of the marks obtained by 60 students of a class, calculate
the arithmetic mean.
Marks No. of Students
20 8
30 12
40 20
50 10
60 6
70 4
Ans: X = 41
X = A + ∑ fd
N
Where A = Assumed mean.
D = (X –A); N = total number of observations
i.e ∑ f
N=∑f
Vidhyadhar Nagar: F – 45, Balaji Tower – I, Behind Vishal Mega Mart.
Mansarovar: 69/318, VT Road, Mansarovar
Contact: 9829959536,7737733360,9928001210 3 .3
4
Illustration: 3
Calculate the arithmetic mean by the short cut method using frequency distribution
of illustration 2.
Ans: X = 41
Direct method.
When the direct method is used.
X = ∑ fM
N
Illustration: 4
From the following data compute arithmetic mean by direct method.
Marks 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60
No. of students 5 10 25 30 20 10
Ans: X = 33
X = A + ∑ fd x i
N
Illustration: 5
Calculate the arithmetic mean by short cut method using frequency distribution of
illustration.4.
Ans: X = 33.
Illustration: 6
Calculate arithmetic mean from the following data using direct method.
Marks 0-10 10-30 30-60 60-100
No. of students 5 12 25 8
Ans: X = 40.6.
Combined Mean
If mean of different components of a group is given separately and it is necessary
to calculate the combined mean of the whole group, it can be calculated with the
help of the following formula:
X1N1+ X2N2 + X3N3…..Xn . Nn
Combined Mean (X123 ... n) = N1+N2+ N3 + .....Nn
where,
X12 = combined mean
X1 and X2 = average of first and second group
N1 and N2 = No. of items in first and second groups so on
Illustration: 7
A distribution consists of 3 components with total frequencies of 100, 150 and 200
having mean 25, 15, 10 respectively. Find the combined mean for the whole
distribution.
Ans: Mean = 15
Illustration: 8
The mean age of a group of 100 children was 9.35 years. The mean age of 25 of
them was 8.75 years and that of another 65 was 10.51 years. What was the mean
age of the remaining?
Ans: The average age of 10 children was 3.31 years.
Illustration: 9
The mean age of a combined group of men and women is 30 years. If the mean age
of the group of men is 32, and that of the group of women is 27 years, find out the
percentage of men and women in the group.
Ans: Male percentage is 60 and female percentage 40.
If in a variable, the arithmetic mean is given but any one value (size) or the
frequency is missing. We should solve the question assuming the missing data as x,
applying direct method of X, form the equation and ascertain the missing value or
the frequency.
Illustration: 10
If mean value is 20.5, find out the missing frequency in the following data:
Value 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30
Frequency 2 4 6 ? 8
Ans: missing frequency = 10
Illustration: 11
From the following information calculate the missing value if mean marks are
28.5:
Marks 10 15 20 X 35 50 Total
No. of Students 3 6 8 10 17 6 50
Ans: Missing value is 25 marks.
(1) Easy Calculation: Arithmetic mean is easy to calculate. Even a layman can
easily understand it.
(2) Based on All values: All the values of variable are considered in calculating
arithmetic mean. Thus it is the most representative measure of central tendency.
(4) Stability: Of all the averages, arithmetic mean is affected least by fluctuations
of sampling.
(5) Algebric use possible: In the calculation of arithmetic mean none of the
mathematical principle is violated. As such it is used in the highest analytical study
of statistics.
(6) Test of Accuracy: Test of accuracy of arithmetic mean is possible with the
help of Charlier's accuracy check which is not possible in any other measure of
central tendency.
(7) Arraying or Grouping not needed: The computation of arithmetic mean does
not require the arraying or grouping of items.
(8) Topical Value: It is the typical value of the variable and the centre of gravity
balancing the values on either side of it.
(9) Algebric Properties: It possess so many algebric properties which any other
measure of central tendency does not possess.
4. Absurd results: Sometimes it gives meaningless and absurd results. The 'Punch'
Journal once remarked, 'The figure of 1.6 children per adult female was felt to be
an absurd result'.
6. All values required: It cannot be used in case of open end classes such as less
than 20 and more than 80 etc. since mid-values cannot be obtained for such classes
unless we estimate both the ends or total values for such classes if given.
MEDIAN
Median is a position average. It is the value of the middle item of a variable when
the items are arranged according to their values either in ascending or descending
order. Its value is so located in the frequency distribution that it divides in half,
with 50% of the items below it and 50% of items above it.
In the words of Dr. A. L. Bowley, "If the numbers of the groups are ranked in order
according to the measurement under consideration, then the measurement of the
number most nearly one-half is the median."
Characteristics of Median
1. It is an average of position.
2. Median is not affected much by extreme items.
3. The sum of deviations about the median, signs ignored, will be less than the sum
of deviations from any other point.
4. Median can be computed even if the items are not expressed quantitatively.
Illustration: 12
From the following data of the wages of 7 workers, compute the median wage:
Wages (in `) 4100 4150 6080 7120 5200 6160 7400
Ans: Median = ` 6080
Illustration: 13
Obtain the value of median from the following data of the monthly income of 10
employees of a company in `.
4391 5384 5591 5407 6672 6522 6777 6753 7850 7490
Ans: Median = ` 6597
Merits of Median
The following are the merits of median:
3. Not affected by Extreme Values: Median is not affected by the extreme items
of a variable.
8. All Values not needed: The total data are not required for calculating median.
Number of items and median groups are sufficient to calculate median.
9. Rigidly Defined: Median is always rigid and clear. It can always be calculated.
10. Based on Assumption in some Cases: The sum of deviations of values about
median (ignoring minus) me the least.
Demerits of median
1. Arraying is difficult: The computation of median requires arraying of the items
which is very cumbersome.
7. Uncertain and Indefinite value: A little change in the series may change the
value of the median substantially. For example, if marks of 7 students are 5, 12, 17,
19, 48, 52 and 54, then median is 19. If marks of two more students 55 and 60 are
added in the series, then median will be 48. Thus, it is not a representative measure
of central tendency.
Uses of Median
The median is used in such cases where individual items are comparable separately
but they are to be included into the groups for comparison. Median is also used for
problems that are not expressed quantitatively. For example, intelligence, beauty,
health etc. cannot be quantified. In the study of business and economic problems
also, the median is used. For example, to obtain average wages, distribution of
assets etc. the median is used. It is also used in cases where extreme items are not
given any importance.
(1) Quartiles: If a distribution is divided into 4 equal parts then there will be three
quartiles Q1, Q2 and Q3. Q2 is the median itself. Q1 is also called lower quartile and
Q3 as upper quartile.
(2) Quintiles: If a variable is divided into 5 equal parts then there are four
quintiles, Qn1, Qn2, Qn3 and Qn4.
(3) Octiles: If a series is divided into 8 equal parts then there are 7 octiles, O1, O2,
O3.... O7 .Here O4 = median, O2 = Q1and O6 = Q3.
(4) Deciles: If a distribution is divided into 10 equal parts, then there will be 9
deciles, D1,D2, D3....D9. D5 = Median.
(5) Percentiles: If a distribution is divided into 100 equal parts, then there will be
99 percentiles. They are denoted as P1, P2....P67, P68....P69. P50= Median, P25 = Q1
and P75 = Q3.
These different measures are calculated just like median. Most of these
measures are used in dispersion and skewness. The formulae which are used in
their calculations are listed below:
99 (N + 1) 99(N + 1) 99N
P99 100 100 100 P99 = l99 + i / f (p99 - c)
Similarly other percentiles can be obtained. The notations used in the above table
mean:
Q1= First Quartile, Q3= Third Quartile, Qn1= First Quintile,
Qn2= Second Quintile, Qn4= Fourth Quintile, O1= First Octile,
Vidhyadhar Nagar: F – 45, Balaji Tower – I, Behind Vishal Mega Mart.
Mansarovar: 69/318, VT Road, Mansarovar
Contact: 9829959536,7737733360,9928001210 3 .12
13
Illustration: 14
In a class test, marks obtained by 20 students are given below, find out Median,
Lower Quartile and Upper Quartile:
Marks = 6, 9, 10, 12, 18, 19, 23, 23, 24, 28, 37, 48, 49, 53 and 60.
Ans: M= 23 Marks, Q1 = 12 Marks, Q3 = 48 Marks.
Illustration: 15
From the following monthly income of 15 families, calculate first & third quartiles,
3rd quintile, 5th octile, 7th decile and 30th percentile:
100, 120, 140, 160, 170, 175, 180, 184, 189, 194, 220, 230, 250, 280, 330.
Ans: Q1= Rs 160, Q3 = Rs 230, Qn3 = Rs 192, O5 = Rs 194, P30 = Rs 168,
and D7 = Rs 222.
Illustration: 16
From the data given in the following table calculate 1st and 3rd quartiles, 4th
decile, 5th octile and 70th percentile:
Size 0 2 4 6 8 10
Frequency 5 7 10 9 5 3
Ans: Q1 =2, Q3 = 6, D4 = 4, O5 = 6 and P70 = 6 units.
Illustration: 17
Calculate both the Quartiles, 2nd Quintile, 3rd Octile, 9th Decile and 45th
Percentile from the following data:
Marks Less than 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
No. of Students 4 16 40 76 96 112 120 125
Ans: Q1= 26.35 marks, Q3 = 48.88, Qn2 = 32.78, O3 = 31.98, P45 = 34.51,
and D9 = 60.63
Illustration: 18
From the following data find out the missing frequency if median value is 50.
Class interval 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70
Frequency 2 8 6 - 15 10
Ans: missing frequency = 9
Illustration: 19
Find out the missing frequencies from the following frequency distribution if
median value is Rs 50 and total no. of families 100:
Expenditure (Rs) 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 Total
No. of Families 14 ? 26 ? 16 100
Ans: Two missing frequencies are 23 and 21
Median = size of N + 1
2
Illustration: 20
From the following data, find the value of median:
Income (`) 4000 4500 5800 5060 6600 5380
No.of persons 24 26 16 20 6 30
Ans: Median = ` 5060.
Illustration: 21
Calculate the median for the following frequency distribution:
Illustration: 22
Calculate the median from the following data:
Weight (in gms) No. of Apples
410 - 419 14
420 - 429 20
430 - 439 42
440 - 449 54
450 - 459 45
460 - 469 18
470 - 479 7
Ans: Median = 443.94.
Illustration: 23
From the following data calculate median.
Marks No. of students
Less than 5 29
Less than 10 224
Less than 15 465
Less than 20 582
Less than 25 634
Less than 30 644
Less than 35 650
Less than 40 653
Less than 45 655
Ans: Median = 12.14
MODE
Mode is the value of that observation which occur; with greatest frequency and
thus is the most fashionable value.
Zesek has defined it as, "Mode is the value occuring most frequently in a series of
items and around which the other items are distributed most densely."
Illustration: 24
Calculate the mode from the following data of the marks obtained by 10 students.
Marks obtained 10 27 24 12 27 27 20 18 15 30
Ans: Mode = 27
Illustration: 25
Calculate mode from the following data:
Size of garment No. of persons wearing
28 10
29 20
30 40
31 65
32 50
33 15
Ans: Mode = 31
M o = L + ∆1 x i
∆1 + ∆2
∆1 = f1 – fo
∆2 = f1 – f2
Illustration: 26
Calculate mode from the following data:
Illustration: 27
Find the value of mode from the data given below:
Weight (kg) No. of students
93 - 97 2
98 - 102 5
103 - 107 12
108 - 112 17
113 - 117 14
118 - 122 6
123 - 127 3
128 - 132 1
Ans: Mo = 110.625 kg
Illustration: 28
Calculate mode in the following series.
Illustration: 29
Calculate Arithmetic Average, Median and the Mode for the following series:
Central Size (years) 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75
Frequency (f) 5 10 14 22 21 16 9 3
Illustration: 30
For the data given below calculate the Mode:
Class Intervals 55-60 50-55 45-50 40-45 35-40 30-35 25-30 20-25
Frequency 5 7 12 15 18 8 7 5
Ans: Mode = 40
To find out missing frequency: Apply the formula for locating mode and form an
equation to find out the missing item (x)
Illustration: 31
If the mode of the following variable is 240, find the frequency of the class 200 -
300:
Expenditure in Rs 0-100 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-600
No. of Persons 140 230 270 ? 150 140
Ans: Missing frequency (f2) = 210
Merits of Mode
6. Same result from different samples: It is the most probable value in the
distribution. It means if a random value is choosen from a frequency distribution,
the probability of modal value will be more than any other value.
Demerits of Mode
1. Indefinite and uncertain: Mode is sometimes uncertain and ill-defined
particularly when maximum frequencies are repeated or frequency distribution is
irregular.
2. Algebric treatment not possible: Mode is not suitable for further mathematical
treatment. It cannot be ascertained for the combined two or more groups if the
values of mode are given for separate groups.
4. Not based on all the values: Mode is the value of maximum corresponding
frequency, so it is not based on all the values of a variable.
6. Not based on all values: It does not give any weightage to the extreme items.
Thus this average is unsuitable where importance is to be given to extreme values
of a variable.
Illustration: 32
(i) If Mode and Mean in a moderately asymmetrical series are 16 cm and 15.6 cm,
what would be the probable value of Median?
(ii)If Median and Mean of a series are 14 and 15 respectively, estimate probable
value of Mode.
(iii)If Mode and Median of a series are respectively 14 and 13, what would be its
Mean?
Ans: (i) M = 15.73cm. (ii) Z = 12 (iii) X = 12.5
MEASURES OF DISPERSION
In two or more distributions the central value may be the same but still there can be
wide disparities in the formation of distribution. Measures of dispersion help us in
studying this important characteristics of a distribution.
DEFINITIIONS
“Dispersion is the measure of the variation of the items.”
“The degree to which numerical data tend to spread about an average value is
called the variation or dispersion of the data.”
The study of dispersion is of great significance in practice as could well be
appreciated from the following example.
Series A Series B Series C
100 100 1
100 105 489
100 102 2
100 103 3
100 90 5
Total 500 500 500
X 100 100 100
(1) RANGE
It is the simplest of all the measures of dispersion. It is the difference between two
extreme observations of the distribution. In other words, range is the difference
between highest (maximum) and the lowest (minimum) values of a variable. Thus,
Range (R) = Largest Value (L) — Smallest Value (S)
Illustration: 33
The following are the prices of shares of AB Co. Ltd. from Monday to Saturday.
Day Price (`)
Monday 200
Tuesday 210
Wednesday 208
Thursday 160
Friday 220
Saturday 250
Ans: Coefficient of Range = 0.22
Illustration: 34
Merits of Range
(1) Range is simple to calculate and easy to understand.
(2) It is rigidly defined.
(3) It gives a broad picture of the data and gives the limits within which all the
items fall.
(4) Its use is very common. It is used for quality control of the articles
produced, geographical studies and for the highest and the smallest values.
(5) Frequencies are not needed for its calculation. Only values are considered and
so it is not affected by the frequencies.
Demerits of Range
(1)Range is not based on complete set of data.
(2)It is not a reliable measure of variability since it is based on two extreme values.
(3) It cannot be calculated in case of open end classes.
(4)Range is affected very much by fluctuations of sampling. It varies widely from
sample to sample.
(5)It is not ligible for mathematical treatment.
(6)In the words of W. I. King, "Range is too indefinite to be used as a practical
measure of dispersion."
Uses of Range
Despite its limitations, Range is a useful measure in the following areas:
(1) Quality Control: It is applied for quality control measures. The control charts
are prepared on the basis of Range for controlling the quality of the products.
Interquartile range = Q3 – Q1
Q1 = N + 1
4
Q3 = 3 N + 1
4
Quartile Deviation or Semi Inter - Quartile Range
It is a measure of dispersion based on the values of upper and lower quartiles.
It is half of the Inter-Quartile Range. As such it is called semi-inter-quartile Range.
The formula for its calculation is:
Quartile Deviation or Q.D. = Q3 – Q1
2
Coefficient of Q.D = Q3 – Q1
Q3 + Q1
Illustration: 35
Find out the value of Q.D and its coefficient from the following data:
Marks: 20 28 40 12 30 15 50
Ans: Q1= 15, Q3= 40, Q.D = 12.5, Coefficient of Q.D = 0.455
Illustration: 36
Compute coefficient of quartile deviation from the following data:
Marks 10 20 30 40 50 60
No of students 4 7 15 8 7 2
Ans: Q1= 20, Q3= 40, Q.D = 10, Coefficient of Q.D = 0.333
Illustration: 37
Calculate quartile deviation and the coefficient of quartile deviation from the
following data.
Wages in Rupees per week No. of wage earners
Less then 34 14
Less then 35-37 62
Less then 38-40 99
Less then 41-43 18
Over 44 7
Ans: Q1= 36.24, Q3= 39.74, Q.D = 1.67, Coefficient of Q.D = 0.044
Merits of I.Q.R
(1)It is simple to calculate and easy to understand as compared to Range.
(2)It is not affected by the two extreme values of the variable.
Demerits of I.Q.R
(i) It cannot be considered as a representative measure since it is based only on
middle 50% items.
(ii) It is not based on all the observations of a variable.
(iii) This measure does not clarify the formation of the series.
(iv) It is not amendable to algebraic treatment. Thus it is not a satisfactory measure
of dispersion.
Or
∑ | D|
N
Where, |D| = |X – A|
Coefficient of M.D = M.D
Median
Illustration: 38
Calculate the mean deviation and its coefficient of the income groups of members
given below:
(`) 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800
Ans: Median = 4400, M.D = 240, C.M.D = 0.054.
(2) Possible from any Average: Mean deviation can be calculated from any
average, viz; Mean or Median or Mode. But the use of median and mean are very
popular.
(3) Based on all the items: Mean deviation takes into account all the items of a
series. Hence it is affected by every value in the distribution. Thus it is more
comprehensive measure of variation than any other.
(6) Relative weightage: It gives relative importance to all the values in a variable.
(7) Calculated Value: Mean deviation is rigidly defined and is a rigid and
calculated value.
(1)Signs are ignored: Since signs are ignored in its calculation, it has poor
combining properties as far as its use in advanced statistical techniques is
concerned. As such it has gained very limited acceptance in statistical application.
Uses: Mean Deviation, despite its demerits, is useful while using small samples. It
is generally used in statistical analysis of economic, business and social
phenomenon.
M. D = ∑ f |D|
N
Illustration: 39
Calculate mean deviation from the following series:
X 10 11 12 13 14
f 3 12 18 12 3.
Ans: Median = 12, M.D = 0.75.
Illustration: 40
Calculate the mean deviation from the mean for the following data:
Size 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Frequency 2 2 4 5 3 2 1 1
Ans: M.D = 2.8.
Illustration: 41
Find the median and mean deviation of the following data:
Size frequency
0-10 7
10-20 12
20-30 18
30-40 25
40-50 16
50-60 14
60-70 8
Ans: Median = 35.2, M.D = 13.1
Illustration: 42
Calculate the mean deviation and its coefficient from the following data:
Class Frequency
0-10 5
10-20 8
20-30 12
30-40 15
40-50 20
50-60 14
60-70 12
70-80 6
Ans: Median = 43, M.D = 15.10, C.M. D = .351
Individual Observations.
By taking deviation of the items from the actual mean.
By taking deviation of the items from an assumed mean.
Deviation taken from actual mean: When deviations are taken from actual mean.
σ = ∑ x2
N
x = (X – X)
When deviations are taken from assumed mean the following formula is applied.
σ = ∑ d2 - ∑ d 2
N N
d = (X – A)
Illustration: 43
Find standard deviation of (`) 7, 9, 16, 24, 26.
Ans: S.D = ` 7.66.
Illustration: 44
Blood serum cholesterol levels of 10 persons are as under.
240, 260, 290, 245, 255, 288, 272, 263, 277, 251.
Calculate S.D with the help of assumed mean.
Ans: S.D = 16.398.
σ = ∑f x2
N
Where, x = (X – X)
N N
Where, d = (X – A)
Illustration: 45
Calculate S.D by assumed mean method from the data given below:
Size of item Frequency
3.5 3
4.5 7
5.5 22
6.5 60
7.5 85
8.5 32
9.5 8
Ans: S.D = 1.149.
σ = ∑ fd2 - ∑ fd 2
x i
N N
Illustration: 46
The annual salaries of a group of employees are given in the following table:
Salaries (in ` 000) 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
No. of persons 3 5 8 7 9 7 4 7
Calculate the S.D by step deviation method.
Ans: S.D = 10.35.
σ = ∑ fd2 - ∑ fd 2
x i
N N
Illustration: 47
Calculate mean & S.D of following frequency distribution of marks:
Marks No. of students
0-10 5
10-20 12
20-30 30
30-40 45
40-50 50
50-60 37
60-70 21
Ans: Mean = 40.9, S.D = 14.839.
Illustration: 48
COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION
Year 2014
One hundred customers from a particular branch were asked to state the time they
generally take to withdraw cash from their accounts. The data is given below
*****
CHAPTER 4 CORRELATION
Correlation is the relationship between the two or more interrelated series of
variables.
Family income and expenditure or luxury items.
Yield of a crop and quantity of fertilizer applied.
Sales revenue and expenses incurred on advertising.
Frequency of smoking and lung damage.
Supply position and price of the commodity.
Increase in the prices of a commodity, reduces its demand and vice-versa.
Similarly up to a certain age, increase in age is associated with the increase in
height of a baby. Thus we may say that sometimes two variables are inter-
dependent on each other. Price of a commodity and its demand, rainfall and
production, income and expenditure, etc. Two variables are said to be correlated if
the change in one variable results in a corresponding change in the other variable.
Definition
When the relationship is of a quantitative nature, the appropriate statistical tool for
studying and measuring the relationship and expressing it in a brief formula is
known as correlation.
Kinds of Correlation
1. Positive and negative correlation: If the changes in two variables are in the
same direction, i.e. increase in one variable is associated with the corresponding
increase in other variable, the correlation is said to be positive.
On the other hand, if variations or fluctuations in two variables are in opposite
direction or in other words an increase in one variable is associated with the
corresponding decrease in other or vice-versa, the correlation is said to be negative.
y y
P1 P1
P P
Q Q1 x Q1 Q x
Example:
x 28 29 30 40 50 58 59 60
y 80 130 170 150 230 560 460 600
Thus linear and non-linear correlation may also be positive or negative. It is clear
from the following chart:
Correlation
Linear Non-linear
o x o x
y y
o x o x
Non-linear Positive Correlation Non-linear Negative Correlation
Degree of correlation
(1) Perfect correlation: If the variations in two variables are in a constant ratio,
the correlation is said to be perfect. If the variations in two variables are in constant
ratio in same direction, the correlation is perfect positive. On the other hand if
correlation coefficient in two variables are in constant ratio but in opposite
direction, the correlation is perfect negative.
y y
o x o x
Perfect negative correlation Perfect positive correlation
y y
x x x
x x
x x x
x x
o x o x
No Correlation Correlation (r = 0)
(3) Limited degree of correlation: When there is neither perfect correlation nor
absence of correlation between the two series of variables, then the correlation is
said to be of limited degree. Generally in case of socio-economic studies, limited
degree of correlation exists. In such cases coefficient of correlation is more than
zero but less than one. Such correlation may be positive as well as negative.
Direct method:
r = dxdy
N.x.y
(4) Multiply the corresponding deviations of X and Y variables with each other and
get total or sum of them i.e. (dx dy).
(5) Calculate square of deviations of x and Y variables separately and total them
i.e. (d2x) and (d2y).
(6) Ascertain standard deviation of both the variables with the help of the
following formulae:
x = d2x and y = d2y
N N
(7) Now the coefficient of correlation is obtained by using the following formulae:
r = dx dy
Nxy
(2) r = dx dy
d2x .d2y
Age of wife 17 20 22 27 21 29 26 30 28 30
Age of husband 22 27 28 28 29 30 31 34 25 36
Ans: r =0.71
Q2 Find out the correlation between the height of father and height of son from the
following data:
Q4 From the following data relating to X, Y and Z series, determine which of the
two series are the most closely correlated?
Formula:
(1) r = dxdy – N (X – Ax) (Y – Ay) X = Ax + dx
N.x.y N
y = d2y - dy 2
N N
Q2 Calculate the coefficient of correlation between weight and income from the
following data. What are your conclusions?
Weight (kg) 120 130 140 150 160 170
Income (`) 100 200 300 400 500 600
Ans: r = 1
Q5 The following table gives the value of export of raw cotton from India to U.S.A
and the value of the imports of manufactured cotton goods into India from U.S.A
(in crores of `):
Year Exports Imports
1997-98 42 56
1998-99 44 49
1999-00 58 53
2000-01 55 58
2001-02 89 65
2002-03 98 76
2003-04 66 58
Calculate the coefficient of correlation between the value of the exports of raw
cotton and the value of imports of cotton-manufactured goods.
Ans: r = +0.9042
Formula:
r = N. XY – (X) (Y)
Ans: r = +0.2794
Formula:
r= fdx dy . N – (fdx . fdy)
25-35 3 16 10 - - 29
35-45 - 10 15 7 - 32
45-55 - - 7 10 4 21
55-65 - - - 4 5 9
Total 9 29 32 21 9 100
Ans: +0.802
Q4 Find out correlation coefficient between height and weight of children from the
following bivariate frequency distribution table:
Height (in inches)
Weight (in 40-44 44-48 48-52 52-56 56-60 60-64 Total
pounds)
35-55 4 40 60 - - - 104
55-75 - - 24 88 12 - 124
75-95 - - - 8 32 8 48
95-115 - - - - 4 8 12
115-135 - - - 4 - - 04
135-155 - - - - 4 4 08
Total 4 40 84 100 52 20 300
Ans: r = 0.7750
r(R) = 1 – 6 D2
N3 - N
Q3 Calculate the coefficient of correlation from the following data by the method
of rank differences: Assignment.
X 75 88 95 70 60 80 81 50
Y 120 134 150 115 110 140 142 100
Ans: rr = 0.93
Q4 The competitors in a beauty contest are ranked by two judges in the following
order:
Assignment.
1st judge 1 6 5 10 3 2 4 9 7 8
2nd judge 2 8 4 1 6 9 5 3 7 10
Ans: rr = -0.12
X 48 33 40 9 16 16 65 24 16 57
Y 13 13 24 6 16 1 20 9 6 9
Ans: rr = 0.59
Year 2014
Calculate the coefficient of correlation from the following data:
Fertilizer used 15 18 20 24 30 35 40 50
Yield (in tonnes) 85 93 95 105 120 130 150 160
Ans: r = .98
Year 2012
Calculate the coefficient of correlation between the corresponding value of x and y
in the following table:
X 2 4 5 6 8 11
Y 18 12 10 8 7 5
Ans: r = -.92
Year 2011
The competitors in a beauty contest are ranked by three judges in the following
order:
First judge 1 6 5 10 3 2 4 9 7 8
Second judge 3 5 8 4 7 10 2 1 6 9
Third judge 6 4 9 8 1 2 3 10 5 7
Use the rank correlation to discuss which pair of judges have the nearest approach.
Ans: 1 and 2 r = -.21, 2 and 3 r = -.29, 1 and 3 r = .64
Since coefficient is positive in judgment of 1 and 3 so they have nearest approach
Year 2009
From the following data calculate coefficient of correlation between X and Y
series by square of values method:
X 7 8 10 11 9 5 6 2 3 6
Y 10 12 8 2 4 3 5 2 4 7
Ans: r = .2794
Year 2003
Calculate the coefficient of correlation from the following data:
Ans: r = .9972
*****
6. While pointing out the difference between regression and correlation Werner Z.
Hirsch rightly stated that, "While correlation analysis tests the closeness with
which two (or more) phenomena co-vary, regression analysis measures the nature
and extent of the relation, that enabling us to make prediction."
Methods of regression
TWO METHODS for determining the equation of a regression line:
(i) Least square method
(ii) Mean based method
(i) Least square method: By using calculus it can be shown that by solving
following two simultaneous linear equations called normal equations, the values of
parameters a and b can be obtained, such that the least square requirement is
followed:
Y on X
Y = na + bX
XY = aX + bX2
These equations are called normal equations. By substituting values of Y, n, X,
XY & X2 (Obtained from the given data) in the above two equations & then
solving, the values of a & b can be obtained.
X on Y
X = nc + dY
XY = cY + dY2
Example: 1
Obtain the two regression lines with the help of the following data:
X 1 3 4 6 8 9 11 14
Y 1 2 4 4 5 7 8 9
Ans: Regression of Y on X is: Y = 0.548 + 0.636X
Regression of X on Y is: X = -0.5 + 1.5Y
(ii) Method based on mean: Equations of the two regression lines based on mean
are as follows:
X on Y: (X – X) = bxy (Y – Y)
__ __
Y on X: (Y – Y) = byx (X – X)
r x
y
r y
x
__ __
Where x = X – X, y = Y – Y
x = S.D of X - series
y = S.D of Y - series
Illustration: 1
From the following data obtain the two regression equations:
X 6 2 10 4 8
Y 9 11 5 8 7
Ans: Regression of Y on X is: Y = 11.9 – 0.65X
Regression of X on Y is: X = 16.4 – 1.3Y
Illustration: 2
From the following data obtain the two regression equations taking deviation of X
from 3 and deviation of Y from 6
X 1 2 3 4 5
Y 3 4 6 9 10
Ans: Regression of Y on X is: Y = 1.9X + .7
Regression of X on Y is: X = .51Y + .26
X on Y = X – X = r x (Y – Y)
y
Y on X = Y – Y = r y (X – X)
x
If deviations in both series are taken from actual means, value of
r y is equal to xy &
x x2
r = bxy x byx
Illustration: 3
The following information about advertisement & sales are available:
Advertisement exp (X) Sales (Y) (` crores)
(` Crores)
Mean 20 120
S.D 5 25
Correlation coefficient = 0.8 Calculate the two regression equations:
Ans: Regression of X on Y is: X = .16Y + 0.8
Regression of Y on X is: Y = 4X + 40
Illustration: 4
Estimate the yield when rainfall is 9 inches from the following data:
Mean S.D
Yield of wheat (kg per unit area) 10 8
Annual rainfall (inches) 8 2
Correlation coefficient r = .5
Ans: The yield of wheat is 12 kg when it rains 9 inches
Illustration: 5
The following data relates to the height (X) & weight (Y) of 100 business
executives.
Mean height = 68
S.D (height) = 2.5
Mean weight = 150 lbs
S.D (weight) = 20 lbs
r = 0.6
Estimate from the above data.
(a) The height of an executive whose weight is 200 lbs,
(b) The weight of an executive whose height is 60 ft.
Ans: Regression equation are: X = .075Y + 56.75 & Y = 4.8X – 176.4
Illustration: 6
For certain X & Y series which are correlated, the two lines of regression are as
given below:
5X – 6Y + 90 = 0……(i)
15X – 8Y – 130 = 0…….(ii)
Find which is regression of Y on X & which is X on Y. find the means of two
series & the correlation coefficient.
Illustration: 7
Find the value of ‘r’ if variance of X = 6.7, S.D of Y = 2.6 & regression equation
of X on Y is X = 0.95Y – 6.4
Ans: r = 0.95
Year 2014
(b) An investigation of the demand for TV sets in 5 towns has resulted in the
following data
Population (x) 11 14 17 21 25
(in '000)
No. of Sets (Y) 15 27 34 38 46
Demanded
Year 2011
In order to study the productivity of workers in an industry, ten workers were
selected at random and their scores on aptitude test and the productivity indices
were complied:
Aptitude score (X) 60 62 65 70 72 48 53 73 65 82
Productivity index (Y) 68 60 62 80 85 40 52 62 60 81
From these details, estimate the productivity index for a worker whose test score is
75.
Ans: Y = 1.167x – 10.855, productive index Y = 1.167 x 75 – 10.855 = 76.67
Year 2008
Table below gives the data relating to purchases and sales. Obtain the two
regression equations and estimate the likely sales when the purchases equal to 65.
Purchases 57 58 59 59 60 61 62 64
Sales 77 78 75 78 82 82 79 81
Ans: Y = .66x + 39.4, x = .545y + 16.95, sales = 82.3
Year 2005
If the regression lines are given by 3x + 2y = 26 & 6x + y = 31, find (i) the mean
value of x & y; (ii) the coefficient of correlation between x & y; (iii) estimate the
value of y of x = 0 & value of x when y = 13
Ans: x = 4, y = 7, r = 1, y = 13, x = 3
2
Year 2004
For some bivariate data, the following results were obtained. The mean value of X
is 53.2 & mean value of Y is 27.9. The regression coefficient of Y on X = -1.5 &
the regression coefficient of X on Y is – 0.2. Find the most probable value of Y
when X = 60. Also find out the value of coefficient of correlation between X & Y.
Ans: r = .548, Y = -1.5x + 107.7, Y = 17.7
Year 2000
Calculate the trend values by the method of least squares from the data given
below & estimate the sales for the year 1991.
Year 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Sales of T.V 12 18 20 23 27
Sets (in ‘000’)
Ans: Sales for year 1991 = 41
*****
CHAPTER 7 PROBABILITY
The word ‘probability’ is related with chance of happening or not happening of an
event. In our daily life we come across with some events of estimating i.e.,
probability e.g. ‘the probability that it will rain today’, ‘probability of getting a
particular number up when dice is thrown’, probability of getting a head or tail by
tossing a coin etc.
PERMUTATIONS (Arrangement)
Permutation refers to the different arrangements of objects in a set where all
elements are different and distinguishable.
Permutations of n different objects taken r at a time: Suppose we have n different
objects and r space to be filled. For filling the first space we can choose any object
from n object hence to fill first space from r spaces the are or n objects.
The first space can be filled in n different ways. The second space can be
filled in (n -1) ways. There are (n - 2) ways for the third space and so on. The final
space is filled in n - (r -1) = n – r + 1 ways after the first space have been filled up.
n
Pr = n
(n-r)
In this way for getting permutations of n different objects taken r at a time there
are two formulae.
Combinations (selection)
Forming of different groups out of different items is known as combination. It is to
be noted that from combination point of view AB or BA are the same but from
permutation point of view they are different. One has to note that in combination
the placement of item in any order is not important while in case of permutation
the order of placement is important.
n
Cr = n
(n-r) r
Probability Theory
In the general language one use the term probability in the sense of happening or
not happening of an event.
Q1 Three Coins are tossed simultaneously. What is the probability that they will
fall 2 head and 1 tail.
Ans: P = 3/8
Types of events
(i) Equally likely events: Such an event which has equal chance of happening for
example getting head or tail on tossing a coin, in the same way getting one or six in
a throw of dice.
(ii) Independent events: These are such events the happenings of which do not
prevent the happening of other events. For example-getting head in the first chance
of tossing a coin do not prevent getting tail in second throw of coin.
(iii) Dependent events: If the happening of an event effects the other event then it
is known as dependent event. For example drawing a jack from a pack of cards
will have a probability of 4/52 or 1/13 but after drawing the jack and not replacing
it in the pack of cards the probability of drawing jack in the second chance will be
3/51, as such the second event is affected by the first event and such events are
called dependent events.
(iv) Overlapping events: if a part of an event can occur together with another part
of second event then these two or more events which occurred together are known
as overlapping events. In general, these events are partially overlapping. For
Probability Theorems
There are two important theorems of probability, namely:
1. Addition theorem 2. Multiplication theorem.
1. Addition theorem
Q1 A bag contains 5 red, 2 black, 3 yellow and 4 green balls. What is the
probability of getting a red or green ball at random in a single draw of one?
Ans: 9
14
Q2 A group of 200 dry cleaners has the following distribution of washers, driers,
and dishwashers.
Washers 110 washers and driers 40
Driers 50 dishwashers and driers 25
Dishwashers 60 washers and dishwashers 35
All three 20
Find the probability that a dry cleaner has a washer or drier or dishwasher.
Ans: 140
200
10% read Y and Z and 24% read all the three papers. Calculate the percentage of
people who do not read any of the three papers.
Ans: 1%
Q4 (i) What is the probability of drawing a spade or a king from a pack of cards.
(ii) Twenty balls are serially numbered and placed in a bag. Find the chance that
the first ball drawn in a multiple of 3 or 5.
(iii) A number is chosen at random from numbers ranging from 1 to 50. What is
the probability that the number chosen is either a multiple of 2 or 10?
Ans: (i) 16 (ii) 9 (iii) 1
52 20 2
Q5 If a pair of dice is thrown, and what is the probability that the sum of the digit
is neither 7 nor 11.
Ans: P = 7
9
Q7 A bag contains 20 balls marked 1 to 20. One ball is drawn at random. What is
the probability that it is marked with a number multiple of 5 or 7?
Ans: 6
20
Q1 A bag contains 5 red, 6 black and 4 green balls. What is the probability of
getting a red ball followed by a green ball in two successive draws of one ball
each, assuming that a ball once drawn is replaced before a second one is drawn?
Ans: 20
225
Q2 An ordinary coin and a six face dice were tossed simultaneously. Find out the
probability of the coin to fall with tail upward and the dice to fall with number 2
upward.
Ans: 1
12
Q4 Five men in a company of 15 are smokers. Three men are chosen, find the
probability that –
(i) All the 3 are smokers.
(ii) None of the three is smokers.
(iii) At least one is smoker.
Ans: (i) 2 (ii) 24 (iii) 67
91 91 91
Q5 Three cards are drawn from a pack of cards, find the probability that –
(i) They are a king, a queen and an ace.
(ii) 2 kings and an ace.
(iii) All spade cards.
(iv) All are red cards.
(v) Two red and 1 black card.
Ans: (i) 16 (ii) 6 (iii) 11 (iv) 2 (v) 13
5525 5525 850 17 34
Q6 A bag contains 4 white and 6 red balls. Two draws of 3 balls are made. Find
the probability that the first draw will give all the three white balls and the second
all the three red balls are replaced before the draw?
Vidhyadhar Nagar: F – 45, Balaji Tower – I, Behind Vishal Mega Mart.
Mansarovar: 69/318, VT Road, Mansarovar
Contact: 9829959536,7737733360,9928001210 7 .6
61
Ans: 1
180
Conditional Probability
Q1 From the packs of cards, three cards were drawn one by one, find the
probability that all the three cards are of black colour.
(i) If the card is not replaced back before the next draw.
(ii) If the card is replaced before the next draw.
Ans: (i) 2/17 (ii) 1/8
Q2 A bag contains 5 white and 3 black balls. Two balls are drawn at random one
after the other without replacement. Find the probability that both balls drawn are
black.
Ans: 3/28
Q3 Find the probability of number of kings drawn if 2 cards are drawn without
replacement from a pack of cards.
Ans: 1/221
Q4 The probability that a contractor will get a contract for road construction is 4/9
and the probability that he will get contract for the construction of a water tank is
5/7. What is the probability of getting at least one contract?
Ans: 53/63
Q6 There are 5 white and 8 red balls in a bag. Two draws of 3 balls (in each draw)
are made such that
(a) The balls are replaced before the second draw
(b) The balls are not replaced before the second draw. Find the probability of
getting 3 red balls in the first draw and 3 white balls in the second draw.
Ans: 7/429
Q7 Find the chance of drawing a king, a queen and a jack in that order from a pack
of cards in three consecutive draws, the cards drawn not being replaced.
Ans: 8/16575
Year 2014
(a) What is Baye's Theorem and explain the meaning of mutually exclusive events?
(b) A bag contains 6 red and 4 white balls. Another bag contains 3 red and 5 white
balls. A fair dice is tossed for the selection of bag. If dice shows 1 or 2 the first bag
is selected otherwise the second bag is selected. A ball is drawn from the selected
bag and found to be red. What is the probability that this ball comes from the first
bag?
Ans: 2/6 x 6/10 = 4/9
2/6 x 6/10 +4/6 x 3/8
Year 2012
(a) Answer the following:
(i) Probability of throwing exactly 7 with two dice? Ans: 6/36 or 1/6
(ii) The probability of drawing a 5 or a club? Ans: 16/52
(iii) The probability that the difference between the numbers showing when two
dice are rolled is 2? Ans: 8/36 or 2/9
(b) Two students A and B are given the same problem to solve. The odds in favour
of A solving the problems are 4 to 6 while against B solving the problem are 6 to 5.
Both the students try to solve the problem. Find the probability of the problem
being solved.
Ans: 4 x 5 = 2
10 11 11
Year 2007
From the pack of cards, 3 cards were taken out one by one, find the probability.
That the 3 cards of black colour
(i) If the card is not replaced back
(ii) If the card is replaced back.
That the card is black or king.
Ans: (i) 2/17 (ii) 1/8
Vidhyadhar Nagar: F – 45, Balaji Tower – I, Behind Vishal Mega Mart.
Mansarovar: 69/318, VT Road, Mansarovar
Contact: 9829959536,7737733360,9928001210 7 .8
63
Year 2005
Show that in a single throw with two dice, the chance of throwing more than 7 is
equal to that of throwing less than 7, each being equal to 5/12.
Year 2004
(a) A bag contains 5 white and 4 black balls. Two balls are drawn at random one
after the other without replacement. Find the probability that both balls are white.
Ans: 5/9 x 4/8 = 5/18
Year 2002
(a) The probability that a man will be alive for next 30 years is 2/3. Find the
probability that at least one of them will be alive 30 years hence.
Ans: 2/3
Year 2001
(a) Suppose it is 9 to 7 against a person A who is now 35 years of age living till he
is 65 and 3 to 2 against a person B now 45 years living till he is 75. Find the
chance that at least one of these persons will be alive 30 years hence.
Ans: 1- (9/16 x 3/5) = 53/80
Year 2000
The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is 2/3 and the
probability that he will not get an electric contract is 5/9. If the probability of
getting at least one contract is 4/5, what is the probability that he will get both the
contracts?
Ans: P(A) +P(B) – P(AB)
2/3 + 4/9 – 4/5 = 14/45
*****
Theoretical distribution
Distributions, which are not obtained by actual observations but are deduced
mathematically under certain definite hypothesis or assumptions, are called
theoretical distributions.
Binomial distribution
The binomial distribution describes discrete data resulting from an experiment
known as Bernoulli process. The tossing of a coin a fixed number of times is a
Bernoulli process.
Bernoulli process
The trials are absolutely independent. The probability of r success in n trials where
p is the probability of success and 1-p = q is the probability of failure in case of
Bernoulli process is given by
P(r) = nCr pr q n-r
Q2 There are 5 workers in K- Pharma. The owner has studied the situation over a
period of time and has determined that there is 0.4 chance of any one employee
being late and that they arrive independently of one another. Find the probability
that:
(i) No employee is late.
(ii) At least one employee is late.
Q3 Six coins are thrown simultaneously. Find the chance of obtaining (i) no head
(ii) at least one head (iii) exactly two heads (iv) not more than two heads (v) more
than 3 heads.
Q4 Ten coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of at least seven
heads.
Ans: 176/1024
Q6 In a multiple-choice quiz each question has 5 alternatives out of them only one
answer is correct. What is the probability of 6 correct answers out of 10 questions?
Ans: 0.0055
(b) A and B play a game. The probability of winning the game by A is 3/5. Find
the probability of winning at least 4 games by A in a set of 6 games.
Ans: (a) .01696 (b) 1701 or 0.54
3125
Q8 Eight coins are thrown simultaneously, find the probability of getting at least
six heads.
Ans: 37
256
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
Q2 Year 2014
A manufacturer of pins knows that 5% of his product is defective. If he sells pins
in boxes of 100 and guarantees that not more than 4 pins will be defective. What is
the probability that a box will fail to meet the guaranteed quality. (e –5 = 0.0067)
Ans: 0.5621
Q2 The Mumbai Municipal Corporation installs 2000 electric bulbs in the streets
of the city. These bulbs have an average life of 1000 hours with a standard
deviation of 200 hrs. if the life of the bulbs is assumed to be normally distributed,
what number of bulbs may be expected to fuse within first 700 hours?
X- 1 1.25 1.50
Ans: 134 bulbs
Year 2014
(a) What do you understand by Normal distribution? Give the importance of
Normal distribution.
(b) Assuming that 50% of the population of a town smokes and assuming that out
of 256 investigators each takes 10 individuals to find out if they smoke, how many
investigators would you expect to report that 3 people or less smoke?
Year 2013
(a) Six dice are thrown 729 times. How many times do you expect atleast three
dice to show e five or six?
Ans: Given N = 729, n = 6
The probability of getting either 5 or 6 = p = 1 + 1 + = 2 = 1
6 6 6 3
The probability of not getting 5 or 6 = q = 1 – 1 = 2
3 3
Thus p = 1, q = 2
3 3
P (atleast 3 dice to show 5 or 6) = P(3) + P(4) + P(5) + P(6)
= 233
729
Hence, out of 729, the number of times we expect atleast 3 dice to
show five or six
= 729 x 233 = 233
729
(b) In a city, ten accidents took place in a span of 50 days. Assuming that the
number of accidents per day follow the Poisson Distribution, find the probability
that there will be three or more accidents in a day. (Given: e-0.2 = 0.8187).
Ans = 1 - 0.999 = 0.001
4) Useful for Large Sample Tests: The normal distribution is also widely used in
case of large samples. Large sample tests are based on the properties of normal
distribution.
Year 2012
(a) The average test marks in a particular class is 79. The standard deviation is 5. if
the marks are distributed normally, how many students, in a class of 200 did not
receive marks between 75 and 82?
Given:
Pr (0 ≤ Z ≤ 0.7) = 0.2580
Pr (0 ≤ Z ≤ 0.8) = 0.288
Pr (0 ≤ Z ≤ 0.6) = 0.2257
When Z is a standard normal variable.
Total number of students who receive marks between 75 and 82= 200 x 0.5138=
102.76
So, (200 – 102.76) = 97.24 ≈ 97 students did not receive marks between 75 and 82
Year 2011
(a) When does a binomial distribution tend to become a normal and poisson
distribution?
Ans: According to Binomial distribution If an event E has probability p of
occurring in each of n independent trials and that of failure in any trial is q (=1 - p)
then the probability that it will occur exactly r times in n trails is given by:
f(r) = nCrprqn-r
When n is very large, p and q are not small, then binomial distribution tends
to normal distribution.
When n is very large and p is very small, then binomial distribution tends to
poisson distribution.
(b) A leading razor blade manufacturing factory turns out razor blades with a small
chance of one out of 1000 blades to be defective. Blades are supplied in packets of
10. Using poisson approximation, calculate the approximate number of packets
without any defective blades and with one defective in a consignment of 1000
packets. e -.01= .99
Ans: P(defective) = p = 1 ,n = 10
1000
Mean = m = 10 = 0.01
1000
Probability of zero defective = P(0) = e-m mr = e-.01 x .010= 0.99
r! 0!
Therefore, in a consignment of 1000 packets, 990 packets will have no defective
blades.
Probability of one defective = P(l) = e-m mr = e-.01 x .011= 0.99 x 0.01 = 0.0099
r! 1!
Therefore, in 1000 packets, approximately 10 packets will have a single blade
defective
Year 2010
It has been noticed in the World cup twenty-20 that the score posted by Indian
cricket team in a day is a normal variate N (150,225):
a) What is the probability they will score not more than 170 on a given day?
Ans:.5319
b) What is the probability they will score atleast 140 on a given day? Ans: .5160
c) What is the score they will post with probability equal to 0.97?
Ans: p(z) = 0.97 = 0.5 + 0.47 z = 1.89
1.89= x -150
225
x = 575.25
Year 2009
Three Coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of (i) all heads (ii) one
head (iii) at least one head (iv) all tails.
Year 2006
Ten coins are thrown simultaneously. Find the probability of getting at least 7
heads.
Ans: 176/1024
Year 2004
(a) Raju and Ramu play a game. The probability of winning the game by Ramu is
2/5. Find the probability of winning at least 4 games by Ramu in a series of 5
games.
Year 2003
On an average five birds hit the Washington monument and are killed every week.
The government will allocate the fund for equipment to score birds away from the
monument if the probability of more than three birds being killed in any week
exceeds 0.7 will the funds be allocated?
Given e –5 = .00674
Ans: .351
Year 2002
(a) A and B play a game. The probability of winning the game by A is 3/5. Find
the probability of winning at least 4 games by A in a series of 6 games.
Year 2001
(a) What is Poisson distribution? Explain with an example and state the conditions
under which this distribution is used.
(b) 5000 students were appeared in an examination. The mean of marks was 39.5%
with a standard deviation of 12.5% marks. Assuming distribution of marks to be
normal, find the number of students who have secured more than 60% marks.
Some areas of standard normal curve are given below:
Z: 1.6 1.62 1.64 1.68
Areas: 0.4452 0.4474 0.4515 0.4535
*****
Introduction
Estimation Theory as the name itself suggests refers to the technique and methods by which population
parameters are estimated from sample studies. Estimation of parameter is absolutely essential when-ever
a sample study has been conducted. People are interested, for a variety of reasons, in parameter values.
For example, a manufacturer would like to have some estimate about the future demand of his product, a
businessman would like to estimate his future sales and profits, a production engineer would very much
wish to know the percentage of defective articles which his machine is likely to produce over a period of
time, the manufacturer of a motor tyres would like to know the approximate life of his tyres, a bulb
manufacturer would be interested to know about the length of life of the bulbs and so on. Such estimates
can be obtained either by the Census Method or Sample Method However, as pointed out earlier;
generally sample studies are conducted to save time, money and energy.
2) To Set the Limits of Accuracy and Degree of Confidence: Theory of estimation strives to set the
limits of accuracy and degree of confidence of the estimates of the population parameter computed on the
basis of sample statistic. The estimates of the population parameters obtained on the basis of sample
statistics may not give true results. Thus researcher set the limits of accuracy and degree of confidence on
such estimates in order to determine how precise the estimates are. Thus, the precision of the estimate is
another main object of sampling theory.
3) To Test Significance: One of the objectives of estimation theory is to test significance about the
population characteristic on the basis of sample statistic. Statistical inferences and statistical conclusions
about population characteristic may be conveniently drawn on the basis of sample statistic. Thus, the
testing of statistical hypothesis and drawing of statistical conclusions are also the objective of the
sampling theory.
4) To Estimate Unknown Population: Its major aim is to help in estimating unknown population
parameter from knowledge of statistical measure based on sample studies.
5) To Compare the Observed and Expected Value: Theory of estimation aims to help compare the
observed and expected value and to find if the difference can be ascribed to the fluctuations of sampling.
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6) To Estimate the Properties of the Population: The theory of estimation is concerned with estimating
the properties of the population from those of the sample and also with gauging the precision of the
estimate.
1) Unbiasedness: An estimator is unbiased if its value is identical with the real value of the parameter.
An estimator θ of a population parameter is said to be unbiased if the expected value of the estimator is
equal to the population parameter. That is, θ is unbiased if E(θ) - θ
For example, the mean of a sampling distribution is supposed to be equal to the parameter value of the
mean. If this is so we would say that the estimator (the mean of the sampling distribution) is unbiased.
However there are some estimators which are not totally unbiased but are asymptotically unbiased, which
means that as the sample size goes on increasing the bias goes on declining till such time that the sample
size is so large that the bias is reduced to almost zero.
Bias in an estimate is not always bad or undesirable. An estimator with large bias but with low variability
is better than an estimator with low bias but high variability. When the variability in an estimator is large
the parameter value given by it would not be dependable.
For example, the samples mean X is an unbiased estimator. Given a random sample, the expected value
of X is µ, the same value one is trying to estimate.
2) Consistency: An estimator is said to be consistent, if with an increase in its size, its value (statistic)
comes closer and closer to the parameter value.
For example, if a sample means...X comes closer to the parameter value of the mean µ, it would be said
that the estimator is consistent. Obviously it means that consistency is a property concerning the behavior
of the estimator for very large values of N. If the value of N is very large - moving towards infinity, then
a value given by the estimator would not differ from the real value of the parameter or the probability of
its being very close to the real parameter value would be unity and the difference between the two values
would be a negligible constant figure.
3) Efficiency: In many cases there can be more than one unbiased and constant estimator of the
parameter value. For example, in a normal distribution both the mean and median are unbiased and
consistent estimators of the parameter mean. However the variance of the sampling distribution of mean
would be less than the variance of the sampling distribution of Median and for this reason Mean would
be considered to be a more efficient estimate than median.
Therefore an estimator which has lesser variability is said to be more efficient and as such more
dependable as others.
4) Sufficiency: A statistic is said to be a sufficient estimator of the parameter if it contains all the
information in the sample about the parameter. If all the information that a sample can provide about the
parameter has been utilized by an estimator it would be termed as a sufficient estimator.
If there is a sufficient estimator for the parameter, it would also be the most efficient and the most
consistent estimator. It however need not be the most unbiased estimator.
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MEANING
Hypothesis Testing / Significance Testing is a procedure that helps us to decide whether the
hypothesized population parameter value is to be accepted or rejected by making use of the information
obtained from the sample
Suppose we want to test the assumption that the mean mileage per gallon for all the cars of the new
model is 36, based on sample evidence of test runs.
The alternative hypothesis (H1) is accepted only if null hypothesis is not supported by the sample results.
In the example, it means that the mean mileage of all cars is greater than 36 or H1: > 36.
Population mean is less than the hypothesized mean or H1: < Ho
In the example, it means that the mean mileage of all cars is less than 36 or H1: < 36.
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5% / 2 = 2.5% (rejection regions from both side)
47.5% 47.5%
Area Area
Left – tailed test – The null and the alternative hypothesis for left- tailed test
Ho : = Ho
H1: < Ho ; there is one rejection region only on the left tail as illustrated below:
Level of significance = 5%
(5% rejection regions from both side)
45% 50%
Area Area
Z = -1.645 Z=0
Reject ACCEPT Ho
Right – tailed test – The null and the alternative hypothesis for right- tailed test
Ho : = Ho
H1: > Ho ; there is one rejection region only on the right tail.
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TWO TAIL
LEVEL 10% ( = 0.10) 5% ( = 0.05) 1% ( = 0.01) 0.1% ( = 0.001)
|Z| 1.645 1.96 2.58 3.289
ONE TAIL
LEVEL 10% ( = 0.10) 5% ( = 0.05) 1% ( = 0.01) 0.1% ( = 0.001)
|Z| 1.28 1.645 2.33 3.09
Types of Hypothesis
1) Research Hypotheses: The research hypothesis is a directional hypothesis, i.e., it indicates the
expected direction of the results. The direction is implied by theory or previous research. The hypothesis
would not indicate the expected direction of the results in exploratory studies where there is no strong
rationale for an expected direction. When it is time to test whether the data support or refute the research
hypothesis, it needs to be translated into a statistical hypothesis.
1) Null Hypothesis: A statistical hypothesis which is stated for the purpose of possible acceptance is
called null hypothesis. It is usually denoted by the symbol H0. For example, the null hypothesis may be
expressed symbolically as:
H0: µ = 162 cms.
According to Prof R.A. Fisher: "Null hypothesis is the hypothesis-which is tested for possible rejection
under the assumption that it is true."
The following may be borne in mind in setting the null hypothesis:
i) If we want to test the significance of the difference between a statistic and the parameter or between
two sample statistics then we set up a null hypothesis that's difference is not significant. This means that
the difference is just due to fluctuations of sampling:
H0: µ = X
ii) If we want to test any statement about the population we set up the null hypothesis that it is true.
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For example, it we want to find it the population mean has specified value µ0, then we setup the null
hypothesis
H0: µ= µ0
2) Alternative Hypothesis: Any hypothesis which is complementary to the null hypothesis is called an
alternative hypothesis and is usually denoted by H1 or Ha. For example, if we want to test the null
hypothesis that the average height of the soldiers is 162 cms., i.e.,
H1: µ= 162 cms. = µ0 (say)
Then the alternative hypothesis could be:
a) H1: µ ≠ µ0 (i.e., µ > µ0 or µ < µ0)
b) H1: µ > µ0
c) H1: µ < µ0
Formulation of Hypothesis
Step 1) Set up a Hypothesis: The null hypothesis, generally referred to as H0, is the hypothesis which is
tested for possible rejection under the assumption that it is true. Theoretically, a null hypothesis is set as
no difference of status quo and considered true, until and unless it is proved wrong by the collected
sample data. The null hypothesis is always expressed in the form of an equation, which makes a claim
regarding the specific value of the population. Symbolically, a null hypothesis is represented as:
H0: µ = µ0
Where µ is the population means and Ho is the hypothesized value of the population mean. For example,
to test whether a population mean is equal to 150, null hypothesis can be set as "population mean is equal
to 150".
Symbolically,
H0: µ = 150
The alternative hypothesis, generally referred by H, (H sub-one), is the logical opposite of the null
hypothesis. In other words, when null hypothesis is found to be true, the alternative hypothesis must be
false or when null hypothesis is found to be false, the alternative hypothesis" must be true. Symbolically,
alternative hypothesis is represented as:
H1: µ ≠ µ0
Consequently, H1: µ< µ0
Ho: µ > µ0
For the above example, the alternative hypothesis can be set as "population mean is not equal to 150".
Symbolically,
H1: µ ≠ 150
This result in two more alternative hypotheses, H1: µ < 150, which indicates that the population mean is
less than 150 and H1: µ < 150, which indicates that the population mean is less than 150 and H1: µ >
150; which indicates that the population mean is greater than 150.
Step 2) Set up a Suitable Significance Level: The level of significance generally denoted by α is the
probability, which is attached to a null hypothesis, which may be rejected even when it is true. The level
of significance is also known as the size of the rejection region or the size of the critical region. It is very
important to note that the level of significance must be determined before we draw samples, so that the
obtained result is free form the choice bias of a decision maker. The levels of significance which are
generally applied by researchers are: 0.01; 0.05; 0.10. The concept of "level of significance" is discussed
in detail later in this chapter.
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Step 3) Test Statistic: The next step is to decide an appropriate statistical test that will be used for
statistical analysis. Type, number, and the level of data may provide a platform for deciding the statistical
test. Apart from these, the statistics used in the study (mean, proportion, variance, etc.,) must also be
considered when a researcher decides on appropriate statistical test, which can be applied for hypothesis
testing in order to obtain the best results.
Step 4) Doing Computations: Having taken the first three steps, one has completely designed a statistical
test. One now proceed to the fourth step - performance of various computations from a random sample of
size n, necessary for the test. These calculations include the testing statistic and the standard error of the
testing statistic.
Step 5) Making Decision: Lastly, a decision should be arrived as to whether the null hypothesis is to be
accepted or rejected. In this regard the value of the test statistic computed to test the hypothesis plays a
very important role.
i) If the computed value of the test statistic is less than the critical value, then the computed value of the
test statistic falls in the acceptance region and the null hypothesis is accepted.
ii) If the computed value of the test statistic is greater than the critical value, then the computed value of
the test statistic falls in the rejection region and null hypothesis is rejected.
Usually 5% level of significance a = 0.05 is used in testing a hypothesis and taking a decision otherwise
any other level of significance is specially stated.
Importance of Hypothesis
1) Finding Answers: Hypothesis supports the researcher to find an answer to a problem. It is expressed
in declarative form. The most important thing is that it provides a guideline to the problem.
2) States Purpose of Researcher: A hypothesis states what researchers are looking for. When facts are
assembled, ordered, and seen in a relationship they constitute a theory. The theory is not speculation but
is built upon fact. Now the various facts in a theory may be logically analysed and relationships other
than those stated in the theory can be deduced. At this point there is no knowledge as to whether such
deductions are correct. The formulation of the deduction however constitutes a hypothesis; if verified it
becomes part of a future theoretical construction.
3) Forward Looking: A hypothesis looks forward. It is a proposition which can be put to a test to
determine its validity. It may seem contrary to or in accord with common sense. It may prove to be
correct or incorrect. In any event however, it leads to an empirical test.
5) Provides Direction: It provides a direction to the research and prevents waste of time and effort of the
researcher.
6) Helps in looking in Particular Aspect: It helps the researcher to look into a particular aspect of the
problem thereby offering certain issues and facts.
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7) Framework for Analysis: It acts as a framework for analysis and interpretation of the data to draw
conclusions.
8) Suggests Areas of Importance: It suggests the areas of importance which need more attention or
more collection of facts by the researcher.
9) Ensures Scientific Nature of Research: A hypothesis ensures the entire research process remains
scientific and reliable; and following the principles of deduction.
Limitations of Hypothesis
1) Fashion of Testing: The tests should not be used in a mechanical fashion. It should be kept in view
that testing is not decision-making itself the tests are only useful aids for decision-making. Hence "proper
interpretation of statistical evidence is important to intelligent decisions."
2) Explanation of Difference: Tests do not explain the reasons as to why does the difference-exist, say
between the means of the two samples. They simply indicate whether the difference is due to fluctuations
of sampling or because of other reasons but the tests do not tell us as to which is/are the other reason(s)
causing the difference.
3) Lack of Certainty: Results of significance tests are based on probabilities and as such cannot be
expressed with full certainty. When a test shows that a difference is statistically significant, then it simply
suggests that the difference is probably not due to chance.
4) Lack of Accuracy: Statistical inferences based on the significance tests cannot be said to be entirely
correct evidences concerning the truth of the hypotheses. This is specially so in case of small samples
where the probability of drawing erring inferences happens to be generally higher. For greater reliability,
the size of samples is sufficiently enlarged.
IMPORTANT TERMS
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H0 is false Type II Error No Error
Type I Error
Type I Error is committed when we reject a correct or true hypothesis. Type I Error (of rejecting a null
hypothesis when it is true) is denoted by a. Thus
α = Probability of Type I Error
= Probability of rejecting H0 when H0 is true.
Type II Error
Type II Error is committed when we accept a wrong or incorrect hypothesis. Type II Error (of accepting a
null hypothesis when it is not true) is denoted by β. Thus
β = Probability of Type II Error
= Probability of accepting H0 when H0 is not true.
If the difference between two means is zero and if test indicated rejection of the null hypothesis we
commit Type I error.
If on the other hand the difference between two means is not zero but our test suggests acceptance of null
hypothesis we commit Type II error.
Level of Significance
Having set up the hypothesis, it is necessary to test the validity of H0 against that of Ha at a certain level
or significance. The hypotheses are tested on a pre-determined level of significance and as such the same
should be specified. Generally, in practice, either 5% level or 1% level is adopted for the purpose.
The factors that affect the level of significance are:
1) The magnitude of the difference between sample means;
2) The size of the samples;
3) The variability of measurements within samples; and
4) Whether the hypothesis is directional or non-directional (A directional hypothesis is one which
predicts the direction of the difference between, say, means). In brief, the level of significance must be
adequate in the context of the purpose and nature of enquiry.
Degree of Freedom
The degree of freedom can be defined as the number of components in the calculation of a statistics that
are free to vary.
Let us consider that one know the mean of data is 25 and that the values are 20, 10, 50, and one unknown
value.
To find the mean of a list of data, we add all of the data and divide by the total number of values. Let the
unknown value is x then using the mean formula 20 + 10 + 50 - x = 25. After solving this one find that
4
x = 20.
If there is two values are missing and they are denoted as x and y. Using the mean formula one find that x
= (70 - y). This is shows that when one chooses a value for x, the value for y is determined. This shows
that there is one degree of freedom.
If size of the given sample is n, then the degree of freedom will be (n - 1). For example, if the size of the
sample is 22 then the degrees of freedom will be 21. In the contingency table the degree of freedom is
calculated in a slightly different manner. If there is s x t size of contingency table then the degree of
freedom will be (s-1) (t-1), where s refers to number of columns and t refers to number of rows. Thus in 2
x 2 contingency table the degree of freedom = (2-1) (2-1) = 1.
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1) Right-tailed Test: A one-tailed test in which the sample statistic is hypothesized to be at the right tail
of the sampling distribution is called right tailed test.
2) Left-tailed Test: A one-tailed test in which the sample statistic is hypothesized to be at the left tail of
the sampling distribution is called left tailed test.
A hypothesis test in which a parameter statistic might fall within either the right or left tail of the
sampling distribution is called two tailed test.
A two-tailed test looks for any change in the parameter (which can be any change - increase or decrease).
For example, a two-tailed test would be used to test these null hypotheses: There will be no significant
difference in IQ scores between males and females, there will be no significant difference between blue
collar and white collar workers,, there is no significant difference in strength between Superman and the
average person.
The critical region (or the region of rejection) which is generally 5 per cent is kept on both sides of the
normal distribution in a two tailed test. It means that 2.5 per cent of the critical region is on the extreme
left of the normal curve and 2.5 per cent on the extreme right. The middle 95% is the acceptance region.
In a single tail test the 5 percent area would be either on the extreme left of the normal curve or on the
extreme right. The remaining 95 percent area would be the acceptance region.
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Z TEST
Applications of Z Test
Z test is used for application in various areas like,
1) Hypothesis Testing for One Proportion (π)
2) Hypothesis Testing for Two Proportions (π1 versus π2)
3) Hypothesis Testing for One Mean (µ)
4) Hypothesis Testing for Two Means (µ1 versus µ2)
5) Hypothesis Testing for Two Standard Deviations.
FORMULAE
(i) Population (infinite) sample size may be large or small, standard deviation of the population known,
hypothesis may be one sided or 2 sided.
Z = x - (mue)
p
n
Where,
x is sample mean
is population mean
p is standard deviation of population
n is number of observations in the sample.
(ii) Population finite, sample size may be large or small, standard deviation of the population known,
hypothesis may be one sided or 2 sided.
Z = x - (mue)
p x N - n
n N-1
Where,
N is number of sample in the population, n is number of observations in the sample.
Illustration: 1
A sample of 400 male students is found to have a mean height of 67.47 inches can it be reasonably
regarded as a sample from a large population with mean height 67.39 inches and a standard deviation of
1.30 inches. Test at 5% level of significance.
Ans: Z = 1.23, table value = 1.96
Illustration: 2
Suppose we are interested in a population of 20 industrial units of the same size all of which are
experiencing excessive labour turnover problem. The past records show that the mean of the distribution
of annual turnover is 320employees with a standard deviation of 75 employees. A sample of 5 of these
industrial units is taken at random which gives a mean of annual turnover as 300 employees. Is the
sample mean consistent with the population mean? Test at 5% level of significance.
Ans: Z = -.671, table value = 1.96
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Illustration: 3
The mean of a certain population process is known to be 50 with a standard deviation of 2.5. The
production manager would like to safe guard against decreasing values of mean. He takes a sample of 12
items that gives a mean of 48.5. What inference should the manager take for the production process on
the basis of sample results? Use 5% level of significance.
Ans: Z = - 2.078, table value = 1.65
(iii) Hypothesis testing of difference between means when two samples are from two different
population.
Z= x1 – x2
p21 + p22
n1 n2
(iv) Hypothesis testing of difference between means when samples are taken from the same population.
Z= x1 – x2
p2 1 + 1
n1 n2
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Illustration: 7
The mean produce of coffee of a sample of 100 fields is 200 kg. Per acre. With a standard deviation of 10
kg. Another sample of 150 fields given the mean of 220 kg with a standard deviation of 12 kgs. Can the 2
samples be considered to have been taken from the same population whose standard deviation is 11 kg.
Use 5% level of significance.
Ans: Z = - 14.08, table value = 1.96
where,
^p (p cap) is sample proportion
p is probability of happening of an event
q is probability of non happening, q = 1-p
n is number of observations in the sample.
Illustration: 8
The null hypothesis is that 20% passengers going first class. But management recognizes the possibilities
that this percentage could be more or less. A random sample of 400 passengers includes 70 passengers
holding 1st class ticket. Can the null hypothesis be rejected at 10 % level of significance.
Ans: Z = - 1.25, table value = 1.65
Illustration: 9
A certain process produces 10% defective articles. A supplier of new material claims that the use of his
material would reduce the proportion of defective. A random sample of 400 units using this new material
was taken out of which 34 were defective. Can the supplier’s claim be accepted?
Ans: Z = - 1, table value = 1.65
Illustration: 10
A sample survey indicates that out of 3232 births, 1705 were boys and the rest were girls. Do this figures
confirms the hypothesis that the sex ratio is 50:50. Test at 5% level of significance.
Ans: Z = 3.125, table value = 1.96
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n1 n2
Illustration: 12
An advertising agency wants to find out if there is a significant difference in the degree of loyalty for a
given brand of cereal between men & women. A random sample of 200 men & 200 women was taken
and it was determined that 58% of women and 65 % of men showed brand loyalty. At = 0.05, test the
null hypothesis that there is no significant difference between the population proportion of men & women
who are brand loyal.
Ans: Z = 1.44
Illustration: 13
Among 60 literates 35 are employed and out of 50 illiterates, 26 are employed. Comment whether in your
opinion would further samples also show same difference in the proportion of employed persons among
literates and illiterates. Test the significance at 5% level.
Ans: Z = 0.663, table value = 1.96
Illustration: 14
A research worker wants to determine the average time it takes a worker to manufacture a unit at 95%
confidence level. And the error is .50. The researcher knows from the past experience that σ is 1.6. How
many observations in a sample a researchers do take carry out the research process effectively.
Solution:
95% confidence level, .5% level of significance.
Error .50, σ = 1.6
n = Z2σ2 = (1.96)2 (1.6)2
E2 (.50)2
= 39.33 = 39 observations.
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Illustration: 16
The finance manager of a company feels that 55% of the branches will have good yearly collection of
deposit after introducing new interest rates. Determine the sample size such that the proportion is within
5% error at 90% confidence level.
Solution:
n = Z2pq
E2
p = .55
q = 1 - .55 = .45
E = .05
Confidence level = 90 – 100 = 10 = 1.65
(1.65) 2 x (.55) x (.45) = 269.525 = 270
(.05) 2
Illustration: 17
A simple random sample is to be taken from a population of 50,000 sales invoices to estimate the
mean amount per invoice. The standard deviation of the population is 4,000. The allowable error is 200
and the confidence coefficient is 90% (z = 1.65). What size of sample is appropriate?
Ans:
n = NZ2σ2
E2 (N- 1) + Z2 σ2
= 2144000000
1999960000 + 42880000
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= 2144000000
2042840000
215120000
199996 + 430.24
N = 1053
T TEST
t = x - (mue)
s
n
s = ( xi –x )2
n-1
* Whenever sample size is less than 30 than that will be the sample size of sample otherwise large size of
sample if greater than 30.
(ii) Population finite, sample size small, standard deviation of population unknown, hypothesis may be
one sided or 2 sided.
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t= x - (mue)
s x N -n
n N -1
Illustration: 19
The specimen of the copper wire have the following breaking strength.
In kg. Weight 578, 572, 570, 568, 572, 578, 570, 572, 596, 544.
Test whether the mean breaking strength of the population may be taken to be 578 kg. Test at 5% level of
significance.(two sided)
Ans: T = -1.49
Illustration: 20
Palms restaurant new the railway station has been having average sales of 500 tea cups per day. Because
of the development of bus stand near by it expects to increase it sales. During the first 12 days after the
start of the bus stand the daily sales were as under: 550, 570, 490, 615, 505, 580, 570, 460, 600, 580, 530,
526. Test at 5% level of significance.
Ans: T = 3.558, table value = 1.796
Illustration: 21
The lifetime of electrical bulbs for a random sample of 10 from a large consignment gave the following
data:
Item 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Life in hrs. 4.2 4.6 3.9 4.1 5.2 3.8 3.9 4.3 4.4 5.6
Can we accept the hypothesis, that the average life time of bulbs in 4 hours.
Ans: T = 2.15, table value = 2.262
Ans: Null Hypothesis (H0): There is no significant difference between prices of two shares.
Price of Share
Share A Share B
X1 (X1)2 X2 (X2 )2
12 144 8 64
15 225 10 100
11 121 14 196
16 256 10 100
14 196 13 169
14 196 11 121
16 256 11 121
98 1394 77 871
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Is there a significant difference in the efficacy of the two drugs at 5% level of significance? (t.05 =2.223
at d.f. 10)
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(iii) Hypothesis testing for comparing two related samples. (Paired T Test)
Values from the two matched samples are denoted as Xi and Yi and the differences by Di (Di = Xi – Yi),
then the mean of the difference i.e.
D = Di
n
Assuming the said differences to be normally distributed and independent, we can apply the paired T –
test for judging the significance of mean of differences and work out the test statistic t as under:
T=D-O
diff./n with (n-1) degrees of freedom.
Where,
D = mean of differences.
diff = standard deviation of differences.
N = number of matched pairs.
Illustration: 24
Memory capacity of 9 students was tested before and after training. State at 5% level of significance.
Whether the training was effective from the following scores:
Students 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Before 10 15 9 3 7 12 16 17 4
After 12 17 8 5 6 11 18 20 3
Use paired t-test
Ans: T = -1.368
Illustration: 25
The sales data of an item in six shops before and after a special promotional campaign are:
Shops A B C D E F
Before 53 28 31 48 50 42
After 58 29 30 55 56 45
Can the campaign be judged to be a success?
Test at 5% level of significance. Use paired t – test.
Ans: T = -2.784
The F test is used to test the significance of difference between two variances. The technique of F test
was originated by Prof. R. A. Fisher and Prof. George. W. Snedecor. By using the F test it is ascertained
whether the two samples can be regarded as drawn from the normal population having the same variance.
Procedure to calculate variance ratio (F)
(iii) The degrees of freedom for the sample having larger variance is known as V1 and that of the sample
having smaller variance is known as V2
v1 = n1 – 1, v2 = n2 – 1
V1
V2
(iv) The table value from F table is obtained at 5% level. In F table the v1 is located horizontally from left
to right and v2 in the first column from up to down. The value coinciding for v1 and v2 is regarded as
table value.
(v) Decision: if the computed value is more than the table value the difference is said to be significant
otherwise insignificant.
Illustration: 26
Given is the following data regarding 2 samples:
Sample 1 20 16 26 27 23 22 18 24 25 19
Sample 2 27 33 42 35 32 34 38 28 41 43 30 37
Test using F test at 5% level of significance whether the 2 samples have been from the same population.
Ans: F = 2.14, table value = 3.07
Illustration: 27
Answer using F test whether the 2 samples have been from the same population. Test at 5% level of
significance.
Sample 1 17 27 18 25 27 29 27 23 17
Sample 2 16 16 20 16 20 17 15 21
Ans: F = 4.15, table value = 3.73
Illustration: 28
In the following table the production of two workers A and B is shown:
Worker A 10 6 16 17 13 12 8 14 15 9
Worker B 7 13 22 15 12 14 18 8 21 23 10 17
Can these results be taken as a proof that B is more competent worker? Use F test.
Ans: F = 2.14, table value = 3.07
Illustration: 29
Two independent samples of 6 and 8 items respectively had the following values of the variables. Do the
two estimates of population variance differ significantly?
Sample 1 40 30 38 41 38 35
Sample 2 39 38 41 33 32 39 40 34
Ans: F = 1.33, table value = 3.97
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Estimation Theory and
A unit of Realwaves (P) Ltd Hypothesis Testing
Chi square test
MEANING
The Chi square test is a non-parametric test where no assumption is made about the parameters of
population.
Chi square is a measure to evaluate the difference between observed frequencies and expected
frequencies to examine whether the difference so obtained is due to a chance factor or due to sampling
error.
x2 = (oi – Ei)2
Ei
Where, oi = observed frequency
Ei = expected frequency
Ei = P x N
Illustration: 1
The table given below show the data obtained during outbreak of small pox:
Illustration: 2
The following table shows the condition of home and the condition of child.
Condition of Condition of child
home Clean Fairly clean Dirty Total
Clean 76 38 25 139
Not clean 43 17 47 107
Total 119 55 72 246
Do these results suggest that the condition of the home affects the condition of child. (At 5% level of
significance, the value of x2 = 5.991 for 2 differences)
Ans: x2 = 20.87
Illustration: 3
The following contingency table shows the classification of 1000 workers in a factory, according to the
disciplinary action taken by the management and their promotional experience:
Disciplinary Promotional experience Total
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Estimation Theory and
A unit of Realwaves (P) Ltd Hypothesis Testing
action Promoted Not promoted
Offenders 30 670 700
Non offenders 70 230 300
Total 100 900 1000
Use x2 test to ascertain whether the disciplinary action taken and promotional experiences are associated
(Given of v = 1, x2 0.05 = 3.84)
Ans: x2 = 84.655
Illustration: 4
The result of survey to know the educational attainment among 100 persons randomly selected in a
locality are given below:
Education
Middle High school College Total
Male 10 15 25 50
Female 25 10 15 50
Total 35 25 40 100
Can you say that education depends on sex?
(For v = 2, x2 0.05 = 5.99) (Null hypothesis should be stated clearly)
Ans: x2 = 9.928
Illustration: 5
In a certain town the proportion of smokers was 90%. A random sample of 100 persons was taken from
the town and 85% were found to be smokers among them. By using x2 test, test whether there is
significant difference between the sample proportion and the population-proportion of smokers in the
town, (for 1 d.f. X20.05 =3.841; for 2 .d.f X20.005 = 5.991) (7)
Ans: Null Hypothesis H0: There is not significant difference between the sample proportion and
population proportion.
Smokers Non smokers Total
Population O 90 10 100
E 175 x 100 = 87.5 25 x 100 = 12.5
200 200
Sample O 85 15 100
E 175 x 100 = 87.5 25 x 100 = 12.5
200 200
Total 175 25 200
X2 = (O - E)2
E
Illustration: 6
A six sided dice was thrown 792 times and the following results were obtained:
No. on dice turned up 1 2 3 4 5 6
Frequency 100 100 200 170 110 112
Test the hypothesis that the dice is unbiased.
(The table value of x2 at 5% level of significance for 5 degree of freedom is 11.07 and for 6 degree of
freedom is 12.592)
Ans: x2 = 68.19
Illustration: 7
A dice is thrown 132 times with following results:
Number 1 2 3 4 5 6
Frequency 16 20 25 14 29 28
Is the dice unbiased?
Ans: x2 = 9
Illustration: 8
The following table gives the number of aircraft accidents that occurred during the various days of the
week. Find whether the accidents are uniformly distributed over the week?
Days Sun Mon Tues Wed Thurs Fri Sat Total
No. of
Accidents 14 16 8 12 11 9 14 84
The table value for different degree of freedom is given below:
Degree of freedom 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
5% value 3.84 5.99 7.82 9.49 11.07 18.07 14.7 15.51 16.92
Ans: x2 = 4.165
Illustration: 9
200 digits are chosen at random from a set of tables. The frequencies of the digits are as follows:
Digits 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Frequency 18 19 23 21 16 25 22 20 15
Use chi square test to ascertain the correctness of the hypothesis that the digit were distributed in equal
number in the table from which they were chosen?
Ans: x2 = 4.3
Illustration: 10
The demand for a particular spare part out of 6720 spare parts in a factory was found to vary from day to
day. In a sample study the following information was obtained:
Days Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
No. of
Parts demanded 1124 1125 1110 1120 1126 1115
Test the hypothesis that the number of parts demanded does not depend on the day of the week. Use chi
square test at 5% level of significance.
Ans: x2 = .1801
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standard deviation of weights of all students from which the above random sample has been drawn, is
equal to 5kgs.
Test on the basis of chi-square at 5% and 1% level of significance.
Given x20.05 at 8d.f = 15.5 x20.05 at 8d.f = 20.1
At 9 d.f = 16.9 at 9 d.f = 21.7
At 10 d.f = 18.3 at 10 d.f = 23.3
Ans: Let us take the null hypothesis that standard deviation of weights of all students from which the
above random sample has been drawn, is equal to 5kgs.
x2 = 1.95
Illustration: 13
8 coins were tossed 256 times and the following results were obtained
No. of heads 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Observed 2 6 30 52 67 56 32 10 1
Fit a binomial distribution and then calculate the expected frequencies. Test hypothesis using chi – square
that the coins are biased. Use 10%level of significance.
Ans: 3.13
*****
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98
Applications of ANOVA
> Through this technique one can explain whether various varieties of seeds of fertilizers or soils differ
significantly so that a policy decision could be taken accordingly, concerning a particular variety in the
context of agriculture researches.
> The differences in various types of feed prepared for a particular class of animal or various types of
drugs manufactured for curing a specific disease may be studied and judged to be significant or not
through the application of ANOVA technique.
> A manager of a big concern can analyze the performance of various salesmen of his concern in order to
know whether their performances differ significantly.
Illustration: 1
Set up an analysis of variance table for the following per acre production data for three varieties of wheat,
each grown on 4 plots and state if the variety differences are significant.
Varieties
Plots X1 X2 X3
Y1 10 13 4
Y2 16 19 7
Y3 19 22 13
Is there significant difference between varieties?
Ans: As the calculated F = 3.762 < 5.143
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100
where,
c = number of columns
r = number of rows.
Illustration: 3
Set up analysis of variance table for the following two-way design results.
* These figures are left-over figures and have been obtained by subtracting from the column total the
total of all other values in the said column. Thus, interaction SS = (76.28) - (28.77+14.78+3.50) = 29.23
and interaction degrees of freedom = (17) - (2+2+9) = 4.
The above table shows that all the three F-ratios are significant at 5% level which means that the drugs
act differently, different groups of people are affected differently and the interaction term is significant.
In fact, if the interaction term happens to be significant, it is pointless to talk about the differences
between various treatments, i.e., differences between drugs or differences between groups of people in
the given case.
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102
The formula for standard normal z statistic to test the significance of r is given by:
Z= r-r
r
Illustration: 1
The following is an arrangement of 25 men, M, and 15 women, W. Lined up to purchase tickets for a
premier picture show:
M WW MMM W MM W M W M WWW MMM W MM WWW MMMMMM WWW MMMMMM
Test for randomness at the 5% level of significance.
Ans: Z = - 0.94, table value = 1.96
Illustration: 2
The marketing manager of a company is keen in analyzing the outcomes of different quotations
submitted to its customers. The outcome is either winning (W) or losing (L) the order. The sequence of
outcomes of 40 different quotations are as listed below. Check whether the events of winning or losing
the orders is random at a significance level of 0.05.
WW LL WWWWWW LL WWW L WWW LL WW LL WW LLL W LL WWW LL WW
Ans: Z = - 1.069, table value = 1.96
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Wilcoxon- Mann- Whitney test (or U – test): This is a very popular test among the rank sum tests. This
test is used to determine whether two independent samples have been drawn from the same population.
In applying U test
Ho – the two samples came from identical population.
Ha – the means of the two populations are not equal.
The means of the ranks assigned to the values of the two samples should be more or less the same.
Mean = u = n1. n2
2
and standard deviation (or standard error)
Upper limit = u + µ + 2a
Lower limit = u - µ - 2a Acceptance region
Illustration: 1
The values in one sample are 53, 38, 69, 57, 46, 39, 73, 48, 73, 74, 60, & 78. In another sample they are
44, 40, 61, 52, 32, 44, 70, 41, 67, 72, 53 & 72.
Test at 10% level of the hypothesis that they come from populations with the same mean. Apply U – test.
Ans: U = 54.5, u = 72, u = 17.32
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104
k
H = 12 Ri – 3 (n + 1)
N(n + 1) ni
i=1
Where,
H = Kruskal-Wallis test
n = Total number of observations in all samples
Ri = Rank of the sample
Kruskal-Wallis test statistics is approximately a Chi-square distribution, with k-l degree of freedom
where ni should be greater than 5. If the calculated value of Kruskal-Wallis test is less than the chi-square
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Illustration: 4
A researcher intends to compare the education and teaching standards of three business schools in a city
with the following average marks of 20 students of the respective schools
X 65 84 74 72 56 70 68
Y 63 69 71 53 59 64 49
Z 79 43 67 57 60 76 -
Test the hypothesis using Rank sum test that there is no difference in the performance of the students of
various business schools. Use 10% level of significance. Ans: 2.820
Illustration: 5
Agribusiness researchers are interested in determining the conditions under which Christmas trees grow
fastest. A random sample of equivalent-size seedlings is divided into four groups. The trees are all grown
in the same field. One group is left to grow naturally, one group is given extra water, one group is given
fertilizer spikes, and one group is given fertilizer spikes and extra water. At the end of one year, the
seedlings are measured for growth (in height). These measurements are shown for each group. Use the
Kruskal-Wailis test to determine whether there is a significant difference in the growth of trees in these
groups. Use a = 0.05
Group 1 (Native) Group 2 (+ Water) Group 3 (+ Fertilizer) Group 4 (+Water and Fertilizer)
8 10 11 18
5 12 14 20
7 11 10 16
11 9 16 15
9 13 17 14
6 12 12 22
Ans: 16.77
Sign test
The sign test is one of the easiest parametric tests. Its name comes from the fact that it is based on the
direction of the plus or minus signs of observations in a sample and not on their numerical magnitudes.
The sign test may be one of the following two types: (a) One sample sign test (b) Two sample sign test.
(a) One sample sign test: The one sample sign test is a very simple non- parametric test applicable when
we sample a continuous symmetrical population in which case the probability of getting a sample value
less than mean is1/ 2 and the probability of getting a sample value greater than mean is also 1/ 2. To test
the null hypothesis = Ho against an appropriate alternative on the basis of a random sample of size ‘n’,
we replace the value of each and every item of the sample with a plus (+) sign if it is greater than Ho,
and with a minus (-) sign if it is less than Ho. But if the value happens to be equal to Ho, then we simply
discard it. After doing this, we test the null hypothesis that these + and – signs are values of a random
variable, having a binomial distribution with p = 1/ 2*. For performing one sample sign test when the
sample is small, we can use tables of binomial probabilities, but when sample happens to be large, we use
normal approximation to binomial distribution. Let us take an illustration to apply one sample sign test.
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106
Illustration: 2
On 10 occasions Mr X has to wait 5,7,3,6,6,5,7,5,2,8 minutes for the metro that he takes to reach his
company. Test the hypothesis that on an average Mr X does not have to wait for more than 5 minutes to
catch the metro train. Use sign test at 5% level of significance.
Ans: 1.86
(b) Two sample sign test (or the sign test for paired data): The sign test has important applications in
problems where we deal with paired data. In such problems, each pairs of values can be replaced with a
plus (+) sign if the first value of the first sample (say X) is greater than the first value of the second
sample (say Y) and we take minus (-) sign if the first value of X is less than the first value of Y. in case
the two values are equal, the concerning pair is discarded. (In case the two samples are not equal size,
then some of the values of the larger sample left over after the random pairing will have to be discarded).
Illustration: 3
The following are the numbers of artifacts dug up by two archaeologists at an ancient cliff dwelling on 30
days.
By X – 1 0 2 3 1 0 2 2 3 0 1 1 4 1 2 1 3 5 2 1 3 2 4 1 3 2 0 2 4 2
By Y - 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 1 1 0 2 2 6 0 2 3 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 0
Use the sign test at 1% level of significance to test the null hypothesis that the two archaeologists, X and
Y, are equally good at finding artifacts against the alternative hypothesis that X is better.
Illustration: 4
In a manufacturing firm goods produced by 12 workers in a week before and after holidays are given as
follows:
s.no 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Before 90 80 95 100 88 84 90 69 101 98 96 85
After 86 77 87 92 79 80 93 79 98 102 98 81
Use sign test to test the hypothesis that there is no effect of holidays on the productivity of the workers
against the alternate hypothesis that the productivity has increased after holidays
Ans: 1.18
rs = 1 - 6d2
n(n2 – 1)
where,
rs = coefficient of rank correlation
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107
Illustration: 1
The following are ratings of aggressiveness (X) and amount of sales in the last year (Y) for eight
salespeople. Is there a significant rank correlation between the two measures? Use the 0.10 significance
level.
X 30 17 35 28 42 25 19 29
Y 35 31 43 46 50 32 33 42
Ans: r = .8095, table value = .6190
Illustration: 2
A plant supervisor ranked a sample of eight workers on the number of hours of overtime worked and
length of employment. Is the rank correlation between the two measures significant at the 0.01 level?
Amount of overtime 5.0 8.0 2.0 4.0 3.0 7.0 1.0 6.0
Years employed 1.0 6.0 4.5 2.0 7.0 8.0 4.5 3.0
Ans: r = .185, table value = .8571
Illustration: 3
The occupational safety and health administration (OSHA) was conducting a study of the relationship
between expenditures for plant safety and the accident rate in the plants. OSHA had confined its studies
to the synthetic chemical industry. To adjust for the size differential that existed among some of the
plants, OSHA had converted its data into expenditures per production employee. The results follow:
Expenditure by chemical companies per production employee in relation to accidents per year
Company A B C D E F G H I J K
Expenditure $60 $37 $30 $20 $24 $42 $39 $54 $48 $58 $26
Accidents 2 7 6 9 7 4 8 2 4 3 8
Is there a significant correlation between expenditures and accidents in the chemical - company plants?
Use a rank correlation (with 1 representing highest expenditure and accident rate) to support your
conclusion. Test at the 1 percent significance level.
Ans: r = -0.86, table value = .7455
*****
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a
108
TotalNoofPages: tr
IM6I I3
M.B.A I Sem. (Main & Back) Exam. Jan. Z0l4
M-103 A Business Mathematics & Statistics
SECTION -A
.rt .so I
| .167
| .l2s l
If the market demand be of 100 units of Agriculture and 80 units of Industry.
Find the
fore cast demand.
tel
Q.2 (a) Define Index Number. What are the main ways of construbting Index Number?
;t
t6l
(b) One hundred customers from a particuiar branch were asked to state the time
they generally take to withdraw cash from their accounts. The data is given
below
No. of Customers 2A 50 20 10
Fertilizer used 15 18 20 24 30 3s 40 50
lt4l
(b) An investigation of the demand for TV sets in5 towns has resulted in the
following data _
Population (x) 11 t4 l7 2t 25
(in'000)
Q.5 (a) What is Baye's Theorem and explain the meaning of mutually exclusive events?
[s]
(b) A bag contains 6 red and 4 white balls. Another bag contains 3 red and 5 white
balls. A fair dice is tossed for the selection of bag. If dice shows I or 2 the first
. bag is selected otherwise the second bag is selected. A balt is drawu from the
selected bag and found to be red. What is the probability that this ball comes
from the first bag?
tel
Q.6 (a) What do you understand by Normal distribution? Give the importance of Normal
distribution. t6l
(b) A manufacturer of pins knows.that 5Yo of his products are defective. If he sells
pins in bo*L, of 100 and guarantees that not more than 4 pins wilt be defective,
what is the probability that a box will fail to meet the guaranteed Quality?
(.'= o.oorz) t8l
SBCTION -B
Q.7 (a) Solve the following seJof linear equations by using mahix method
xt ** 3xs: l
4xz
2xf 5x2 * 4xs:'4
' x1 -.jx2 - 2xj.: 5 t8l
(b) Assuming that 50%o of the population oia town smokes and assuming that out of
256 inveitigators each takes l0 individuals to find out if they smoke, how many
investigators would you expect to report that 3 people or less smoke? ,[6]
re
M.B.A. I Semester (Main/Back) Examination - 2015
M-103 ABusiness Mathematics & Statistics
[Total No. of Pages { 2112
t-{
Instructions to Candidates:
I) ' The question paper is divided in two sections.
2) There are sections A & B. Section A contains 6 questions out of which the
candidates is required to attempt any 4 questions. Section B contains short
case studylapplication base 7 question which is compulsory.
3) All questions ore carrying equal marla.
Section - A
1. a) Veri$r the transpose of the product of two matrices equals the product of the
transposes taken in reverse order; that is
(AB)' = Br Ar
[El
. n=1, (7)
I ona B =Lz,-l;lf
L-r j
It z r 3l
j-,r34
A:l r o z 3l (7)
[-rr1t)
lM 6i13
114
Total No of Pages: pl
(Y)
t< LM6113
F{ M. B. A. I Sem. (MainlBack) Exam., Jan. 2016
\0 M-103A Business Mathematics and Statistics
t{
=
SECTION.A
A-r 171
20
'o/^,*ll
'..,_/ r
2x
02
= 6 find the value of x.
|
J.<6 Solve the following system of linear equations by matrix inversion method:
2x +y +42= 2, 2 + 4y +22= 3, 2x+ 3y + z = - 6 t7t
Q.3 (a) The profits and losses of a business concern for the years 20ll-2015 are given
below:. 141
i"g t* flij
Year Profit (in Rs.) Loss (in Rs.) LL"JiTI
ft-^h.#
2011 3000 *5 -{
'::,
20t2 4000
"* .,'. fl
Ul v'
! .* ,;,
"t:,.
r
2013 2500 'rif
lJj"l
/ t1J
1'.i
2014 2000 -. ]W:^,.
rrl
,/
a"4r_(g>/ Six dice are thrown 729 times. How many times do you expect at least three dice
/o show a 5 or 6? Ul
.(b/
\./' Find the standard deviation and coefficient of variation from the following table
giving the marks of 150 students: UI
^ )d't/-
.'Lt-
L x.-' '"+* t
/r{-
s (
\a \.
\ i,; t^
'Q lc
116
Q.5 (a) What is meant by an Index number? Explain briefly any two methods of
construction of Index numbers. t71
(b) The following table gives the change in the price and consumption of three
commodities. Compute Fisher's ideal price index number. 171
2005 2015
Commodity Price (Rs.) Quantity (Rs.) Price (Rs.) Quantity (Rs.)
Wheat 100 l0 ll0 6
Rice 150 t5 170 l8
Cloth 5 50 4 30
SECTION.B
Q.7 (a) Suppose a manufacturing firm produces steel pipes in three plants with daily
production volume of 500, 10fi) and 2000 units respectively. According to past
experience it is known that the fractions of defective output produced by the
three plants are respectively 0.005, 0.008 and 0.010. If a pipe is selected from a
day's total production and found to be defective. Find out what is the probability
that it came from the first plant. t71
(b) Assume a certain factory turning out razor blades, there is a small chance 1/500
for any blade to be defective. The blades are supplied in packets of 10. Use the
Poisson distribution to calculate the approximate number of packets containing
no defective, one defective and two defective blades respectively in a
tt -z 3l [r or olol
A-lz 3 -rl,*nerer-lo (7)
L-3 t 2) [o o r]
-r ol lz r :l
l-r
b) ' Ir 3l-| ,=l-,
ff A=12 '=l-'
o I,l
0
rl'
l, L, o ,l
I
Ir z -rl
rl 4i
u=l-, ,'l
z)
(7)
L3
b) Solve the following system of equations by using determinants (Cramers rule)
x-4y-z=71
2x-5y+22 =39 U,)
-3x+2y+z=l
b) The following table shows the number of workers in a factory whose weekly
earnings are given against them. Determine the mean valves ofweekly earnings
and standard deviation. (7)
Burrge of weelly rngs rn mbdr. of workers ,in
(9
.-r,G
{ -(b
74
6-8 T - ft'
L
"376
8- l0 1 /
?04
t0-12 t) -L J10
t2-14
l4-16 @
lf
0
1'"-
18
0
16-18
l)_ \
9
t8-20
/l A
9
20-22
\ v 0
4. a)
tryq)
order.
@s inthe following
First judge 1 6 5 t0 a
J 2 4 9 7 8
Second judge J -t
5 8 4 7 10 2 I 6 9
Thirdjudge 6 4 9 8 1 2
a
J 10 5 7
Use the rank of correlation to discuss which pair ofjudges havi the nearest
approach to common tastes in beauty. (7)
b) The equations of two regression lines obtained in a correlation analysis of 60
observations are 5x:6y+24 and 1000 y :76gx - 37Og
1M6113 (2)
119
b) In a' bolt factory machines A, B and C manufacture 25,35 and 40 percent of
the total of their output 5,4 and 2 percent are defective. A bolt is drawn at
random and is found to be defective, What are the probabilities that it was
manufactured by the machinesA, B and C? (7)
6. a) From the chain base index numbers given below, prepare fixed base index
numbers. (7)
1945 1946 1947 t948 t949 I 950
Section - B
7. a) A driven has two taxies, which he hires out day by day. The number of
demands for a taxi on each day is distributed as a poisson variate with mean
1.5. Calculate the porportion of days on which
Barley rc7 2 0 2 0
Maule 62 48 2 9 e (7)
.f,
?:
1M6113 (3)
VIDEO AVAILABLE FOR
WWW.MOREEDUCATION.IN ALL PRACTICAL & THEORY SUBJECT RTU MBA CLASSES SINCE 2005
120
Y-103A
Business Mathematics and Statistics
L.]
Time: 3 Hours Maximum Marks: 70
Min. Passing Marks: 28
Instnrctions to Candidates :
(i) The Etestiott poper is divided in two sections.
(ii) A & B. Section A contains 6 questions out of whiclt
There are sectiorts
the candidate is required to attempt any 4 questions. Section B
contains short case study / application based 7 question, which is
compulsory
(iii) All questions carry equal ntarl<s.
SECTION,A *
Q.1 (a) MORE EDUCATION
Company produces 9829959536
three products every day, Their total production on a certain
day is 45 tons. It is found that the production of third product exceeds the
production of flrst product by 8 tons, while the total:d,lbduction of the first and
[; ;]
and body weight (y) in kg. The data analyst offered'following summation
quantitiesbasedonthebasicdataonthetwovariablQs.'
!x= 166,Zy = 5tl7 ,Ixy = 9840, Z*'= 2892 andZy' = 33927 '
per unit of calode
Using these quantities. find (a) absolute increase in weight
most likely weight against a
inrake, (b) The minimum weight y intercept, (c) The
t10l
calorie intak e of 25 and (d) The standard error of estimate.
T
3
J
4
3 {v
I $d
No of Matehes 1
\'
MORE EDUCATION
goals9829959536
scored per match was 2-5 with
For tearn B the avetage number of
standard deviation of 1 ,25 goals' Find which team may be more consistent?
,* tel
probability for each,!9 win the contract?
(b) A bag contains white, 4 blue and 10 green balls. Two balls are drawn at
*
ffi. ;;;*. o.**ilitv that dpv will both be sreel': t 'D( t5l
Calculate index number of prices for 1995 on the basis of 1990 from the data
given below:- t8l
Commodity Wei._eht Price per unit Price per unit 1995( < )
1ee0({)
A 40 L6 20
B 25 40 50
C
D
20
15
L2
2
15
3
4 o[ 8
If the weights of commodities A.B,C and D are increased in the tatio l:2:3;4,
what will be the increase in index number?
A manufacture of dolls knows that 5Vo of his products are defective, if he sells
dolls in boxes of 100 and guarantees that not more than 4 dolls will be defective,
/
what is the probability that a box will fail to meet the guaranteed quality.
(.-'= 0.0067) t8l
SECTIOI\[-B
, |Lb?
C?Se Studv
e.7 A financeMORE
company hasEDUCATION
offices located in every 9829959536
division, every district and every
taluka in a certain state in India. Assunle that there are five divisions, 30 districts and
200 taluka in the state. Each office has 1 Head Clerk, 1 Cashier, 1 Clerk and 1 Peon. A
divisional office has in addition, One Office Superintendent,.2 Clerks, 1 Typist and'1
Peon. A district office has in addition, 1 Clerk and 1 Peon.
The basic daily salaries are as follows: Office Superintendent Rs. 500, Head Clerk
Rs. 200, Cashier Rs. 175, Clerks and Typist Rs. 150 and Peon Rs. 100. Using Matrix
notation. Find.
(a) The total number of posts of each kind in all the offices taken together. tsl
(b)Thetotalbasicdailysalarybi11ofeachkindofofficeandt4z( tsl
(c) The total basic daily bill of all the offic0s taken together. t4)
2) Thtere are sectionsA & B. Section A contqins 6 questions out of which the
candidate is required to attempt any 4 questions. Section B contains short
case study/application bqse I question which is compulsory.
3) All questions are carrying equol marks.
Section - A
2. ,6) Explain various measures of dispersion and its sign ificance. (6)
f) The following data relate to age of employees and the number of days they
were reported sick in a month.
Employees: I 2 : 4 5 6 7 8 l0
Age (X) : 30 32 3s N 48 s0 52 55 57 6t
tu
SickDays(Y): I 0 Z 5 Z 4 G 5
Operator 12345678
Experience (X) 16 12 18 4 . 3 l0 5 12
Performance (Y) . 87 88 89 68 78 80 75 83
Ratings l$++tt
',_l.}
\y
Calculate the regression lines of performance ratings on experience and
estimate the portable performance if an operator has 7 years experience. (8)
iii) estimate thc value of y for x:0 kd uulu, of x when y: 13. ' 4S1Ll
4.? What do you mean by index number? What is the significance and need of
index numbers. I-Iow do we construct index numbers? (6)
yY Calculate fisher's ideal index from the given data. Does it satisff the time
reversal and fuctor reversal tests (8)
B 100 2 r20
C m 6 60
D l0 30 T2 24
E 8 40 12 36
\F,S>
1M6113 (2\
\ vq
'>z
125
I 5. a) The p;obability that a boy will not pass MBA examination
,2
rst and the
3
I
probability that a girl will not pass the MBA examination is Find the
5'
I
probability that only one ofthem will pass the examination. (6)
I
ii) Conditionalprobability.
rD Baye's theorem.
Share Average price (Rs.) Standard Deviation Cunent selling price (Rs.)
ii) If you are the holder of all three shares, which one would you like to
dispose of at present, and why? (g)
b) What do you mean by central tendency? What are the different measures of
central tendency? Explain appropriate situations to use different measures of
central tendency. (6)
1M6113 (3)
126
Section - B (CompulsorY)
7. a) The average monthly ,d., # 5000 firms are norrnally distributed. Its mean
and standard deviation are Rs. 36000 and Rs. 10000 respectively. Find
i) the number of firms the sales of which are over Rs. 40,000.
ii) the percentage of firms the sales of which will be between Rs. 38,500
and Rs.,41,000.
iii) the number of firms the sales of which will be between Rs. 30,000 and
Rs.40,000. The relevantextract atthe areatable (underthe normal curve)
is given below.
qt -\\\6 ,a
z 0.25 0.40 0.5 0.6 € ba)rl t gasr
Area 0.0987 0.1 554 0.19 t 5 0.2257
,o1 fr< (s) "qf
b) A manufacturing firm produces steel pipes in three plants with daily production
volumes of 500, 1000 and 2000 units respectively. According to past
experience, it is known that the fraction of a defective outputs produced by
the three plants are respectively .005, .008 and .010. If a pipe is selected from
a day's total production and found to be defective. What is the probability
that it came from the first Plant. (6)
0.5 0.1915 0.1950 0.1985 0.2019 0.2054 0.2088 0.2123 0.2157 0.2190 0.2224
0.6 0.2257 0.2291 0.2324 0.2357 0.2389 0.2422 0.2454 0.2486 0.2517 0.2549
0.7 0.2580 0.2611 0.2642 0.2673 0.2703 0.2734 0.2764 0.2794 0.2823 0.2852
0.8 0.2881 0.2910 0.2939 0.2967 0.2995 0.3023 0.3051 0.3078 0.3106 0.3133
0.9 0.3159 0.3186 0.3212 0.3238 0.3264 0.3289 0.3315 0.3340 0.3365 0.3389
1.0 0.3413 0.3438 0.3461 0.3485 0.3508 0.3531 0.3554 0.3577 0.3599 0.3621
1.1 0.3643 0.3665 0.3686 0.3780 0.3729 0.3749 0.3770 0.3790 0.3810 0.3830
1.2 0.3849 0.3869 0.3888 0.3907 0.3925 0.3944 0.3962 0.3980 0.3997 0.4015
1.3 0.4032 0.4049 0.4066 0.4082 0.4099 0.4115 0.4131 0.4147 0.4162 0.4177
1.4 0.4192 0.4207 0.4222 0.4236 0.4251 0.4265 0.4279 0.4292 0.4306 0.4319
1.5 0.4332 0.4345 0.4357 0.4370 0.4382 0.4394 0.4406 0.4418 0.4429 0.4441
1.6 0.4452 0.4463 0.4474 0.4484 0.4495 0.4505 0.4515 0.4525 0.4535 0.4545
1.7 0.4554 0.4564 0.4573 0.4582 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608 0.4616 0.4625 0.4633
1.8 0.4641 0.4649 0.4656 0.4664 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 0.4693 0.4699 0.4706
1.9 0.4713 0.4719 0.4726 0.4732 0.4738 0.4744 0.4750 0.4756 0.4761 0.4767
2.0 0.4772 0.4778 0.4783 0.4788 0.4793 0.4798 0.4803 0.4808 0.4812 0.4817
2.1 0.4821 0.4826 0.4830 0.4884 0.4838 0.4842 0.4846 0.4850 0.4854 0.4857
2.2 0.4861 0.4864 0.4868 0.4871 0.4875 0.4878 0.4881 0.4884 0.4887 0.4890
2.3 0.4893 0.4896 0.4898 0.4901 0.4904 0.4906 0.4909 0.4911 0.4913 0.4916
2.4 0.4918 0.4920 0.4922 0.4925 0.4927 0.4929 0.4931 0.4932 0.4934 0.4936
2.5 0.4938 0.4940 0.4941 0.4943 0.4945 0.4946 0.4948 0.4949 0.4951 0.4952
2.6 0.4953 0.4955 0.4956 0.4957 0.4959 0.4960 0.4961 0.4962 0.4963 0.4964
2.7 0.4965 0.4966 0.4967 0.4968 0.4969 0.4970 0.4971 0.4972 0.4973 0.4974
2.8 0.4974 0.4975 0.4976 0.4977 0.4977 0.4978 0.4979 0.4979 0.4980 0.4981
2.9 0.4981 0.4982 0.4982 0.4983 0.4984 0.4984 0.4985 0.4985 0.4986 0.4986
3.0 0.4987 0.4987 0.4987 0.4988 0.4988 0.498 0.4989 0.4989 0.4990 0.4990
.-
v RoilNo., 13MBtxx 6lq TotalPrinted Pages:f
-v
-fAl t 2M5106
- ----- I
2. NIL
SECTION - A
6+8
t4
8+6
fn OR e
trA)eATi o N)
Purrrre€T trr. o Re
qgTqqs qs34'
t",1,fi' Give the format of Research Report in brief describing its element
with example.
t4
SECTION -B
/'
,.4' The following table gives the number of good and defective parts
'\*/" produced by each of the three shifts in a factory. using a b% Ievel
of significance find if there is any association between the shit and
the quality of the part produced.
Given value of X2 at bYo level of significance is 5.gg1. '-',- -,
shift Good Defective Total (- " \,' '> -)-u i: '
Day 900 130 1030 1 : ; - :':';1": ":'i
-:':'' j
Evening 700 170 870 / ''. ! .'.'1,'"'l
Night 400 200 600
Total 2000 500 2500
t4
whichis compulsory,
(iii) All questions carry equal marks. pt"iNHHT
tul**f;
2. NIL ln-q $ $ $ ri 5 J
1. NIL {,
spcTIoIY-s,
,/l
qly'l What do you mean by research? Explain various types of research" t7l
(b) What is research problem? Define the main issues wtrich should receive the
attention of the researcher in formulating the research problem. Give suitable
. /l examples to elucidate your points. Ul
//\
Q.Z7Bnefly describe the different steps invoived in a research process. Discuss the
\'/ different methods which are adopted for thd purpose of Research Design. U41
Q.3 (a) What do you mean by 'sampling'? State the various methods of sampling. U)
(b) Design a questionnaire to study the buying behaviors of consurners in a shopping
mall" t7l
Q,4 (a) "Ptocessittg of' clltu irnplies editing, eoding, elnssifipution und tubulation",
Trnarmsnt
ae
The sales data of an item in six shops before and after a special promotional campaign
Q$w A B C D E F
.Before 53 28 31 48 50 42
Uampatgn
After 58 29 30 55 56 45
campaign
't:'
I
.::j
Can the campaign be judged to be a success? (5% significance level, table value "+
=2.57) ::irn
l;.il
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[?M5,106] Page 2 of3 1246al
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132
School
A B C D
o
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10 11 .t a.! i2 \qt4 e 8l
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Roll No. Total No of Pages: tr
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F.{
tn
M. B. A. II
Sem. (Nlain / Back) Exam., June-July 2016
M-206 A Research Methods in Management
N
=
SECTION ,,A
Q. 1 (a) Explain the concept of research and its application in various functions of
management. Ul
(b) What are the"different types of business problems encountered by the
researcher? , L|l
Q.2 What do you mean by research design? Explain various methods of research
design. tr4l
Q.3 (a) What do you understand by primary and secondary data? Explain the various
methods of collection of primary data and sources of secondary data. I7l
(b) What is questionnaire? What is difference
-b-9tye'elgg.e$iglgaigtmf,rchedule?
What preeautions should be taken in dfifting a good questionnaire? 171
Q.a (a) Explain sub-divided bar diagrams and Pie-Diagrams with illustration and their
\
eL,s'&
134
Q.5 (a) What are the precautions should be taken in preparing the research report. t7)
(b) Write a short note on thesis. U1
Q.6 (a) A certain medicine given to each of the 12 patients,tpsulted in the following
increase of blood presspre. Can it be concluded that the medicine will in general
be accompained'by an increase in blood pressure?
-1, +3, 0,'+6, '2, +1, +5, 0, .+4. Ul
, (t. 05 tor df. = 11is2.201) +5, +2. +8,
.'(b)r+low many pairs of items should be included in a sample so that for r = +.42, the
1-/'' 6dlculated value of-t may be mo{e tndiz.lzl 17)
OR
The marks obtained in an examination follow the normal distribution with.mean 180
and standard deviation 40. If 10,000 students appeared at the examination. U41
(a) Calculate the number of students scoring betryeen 140 and 150 marks,
(b) Lowest marks of 1000 toppers
(c) Highest marks of 500 worst performers.
lZ(P=0.4)-+ 1.281
SECTION B
Caqg Siudv
a;Ahe following table gives the yields on 15 sample fields under three varieties of seeds
AB C
20 ** 18 !'} Y 25 {, 1'f
T*
L,{
2L url I 20 Ll r',' 28 -1
dY
z3 ( "i 1 17 -*,;' tl 22 L{ fr Ll
rut&f's
16 rl16 25 ils 28'-'[ {'.'l
20 {,0} 15 $&.f'
L-t 32 i {r"} tI
Test at 5Vo level of significanQe whether the average yields of lard under different
: varieties of seed show. Significant differences (Table value of F at 5 7o level for Y t = 2
and Yz= 12 - 3.88)
I
135
136
137
VIDEO AVAILABLE FOR
WWW.MOREEDUCATION.IN ALL PRACTICAL & THEORY SUBJECT RTU MBA CLASSES SINCE 2005
138
2Nt5 106
M.B.A. Ir-Sem (Main lBack) Exam., May - z0l8
M-206A Research Methods in Management
Q.4 What is testing of hypothesis? Explain how it is useful for illustrating a research
Q.5 (a) What is Chi-square test? Explain the significance in statistical analysis of any
i
research proble-m. U)
(b) Suppose that the thickness of a part used in a semiconductor is its critical
parts have the variance s2=0.68, where the measurements are in thousandths of an
thickness is given by a variance not greater that 0.36. Assuming that the
measurements constifute a random sample from a normal population, test the null
MORE
level.
EDUCATION 9829959536 U)
{d*
t14l
y Case Study-
A common admission test was conducted in four colleges. 5 students were selected at
random from each college and the marks scored by them are given below. Make an
analysis of variance.
qld'e--
t
15 20 11 14
18 24 15
20 25 L7 zs
\
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;
24 18 t9
t3 13 18 zzt[ul
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Page 3 of 3 [2e0ol
[2Ms106]
0.5 0.1915 0.1950 0.1985 0.2019 0.2054 0.2088 0.2123 0.2157 0.2190 0.2224
0.6 0.2257 0.2291 0.2324 0.2357 0.2389 0.2422 0.2454 0.2486 0.2517 0.2549
0.7 0.2580 0.2611 0.2642 0.2673 0.2703 0.2734 0.2764 0.2794 0.2823 0.2852
0.8 0.2881 0.2910 0.2939 0.2967 0.2995 0.3023 0.3051 0.3078 0.3106 0.3133
0.9 0.3159 0.3186 0.3212 0.3238 0.3264 0.3289 0.3315 0.3340 0.3365 0.3389
1.0 0.3413 0.3438 0.3461 0.3485 0.3508 0.3531 0.3554 0.3577 0.3599 0.3621
1.1 0.3643 0.3665 0.3686 0.3780 0.3729 0.3749 0.3770 0.3790 0.3810 0.3830
1.2 0.3849 0.3869 0.3888 0.3907 0.3925 0.3944 0.3962 0.3980 0.3997 0.4015
1.3 0.4032 0.4049 0.4066 0.4082 0.4099 0.4115 0.4131 0.4147 0.4162 0.4177
1.4 0.4192 0.4207 0.4222 0.4236 0.4251 0.4265 0.4279 0.4292 0.4306 0.4319
1.5 0.4332 0.4345 0.4357 0.4370 0.4382 0.4394 0.4406 0.4418 0.4429 0.4441
1.6 0.4452 0.4463 0.4474 0.4484 0.4495 0.4505 0.4515 0.4525 0.4535 0.4545
1.7 0.4554 0.4564 0.4573 0.4582 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608 0.4616 0.4625 0.4633
1.8 0.4641 0.4649 0.4656 0.4664 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 0.4693 0.4699 0.4706
1.9 0.4713 0.4719 0.4726 0.4732 0.4738 0.4744 0.4750 0.4756 0.4761 0.4767
2.0 0.4772 0.4778 0.4783 0.4788 0.4793 0.4798 0.4803 0.4808 0.4812 0.4817
2.1 0.4821 0.4826 0.4830 0.4884 0.4838 0.4842 0.4846 0.4850 0.4854 0.4857
2.2 0.4861 0.4864 0.4868 0.4871 0.4875 0.4878 0.4881 0.4884 0.4887 0.4890
2.3 0.4893 0.4896 0.4898 0.4901 0.4904 0.4906 0.4909 0.4911 0.4913 0.4916
2.4 0.4918 0.4920 0.4922 0.4925 0.4927 0.4929 0.4931 0.4932 0.4934 0.4936
2.5 0.4938 0.4940 0.4941 0.4943 0.4945 0.4946 0.4948 0.4949 0.4951 0.4952
2.6 0.4953 0.4955 0.4956 0.4957 0.4959 0.4960 0.4961 0.4962 0.4963 0.4964
2.7 0.4965 0.4966 0.4967 0.4968 0.4969 0.4970 0.4971 0.4972 0.4973 0.4974
2.8 0.4974 0.4975 0.4976 0.4977 0.4977 0.4978 0.4979 0.4979 0.4980 0.4981
2.9 0.4981 0.4982 0.4982 0.4983 0.4984 0.4984 0.4985 0.4985 0.4986 0.4986
3.0 0.4987 0.4987 0.4987 0.4988 0.4988 0.498 0.4989 0.4989 0.4990 0.4990
Branches:
(1) Vidhyadhar Nagar (2) Mansarovar (3) Lal Khothi 9.1
144
Branches:
(1) Vidhyadhar Nagar (2) Mansarovar (3) Lal Khothi 9.2
145
Branches:
(1) Vidhyadhar Nagar (2) Mansarovar (3) Lal Khothi 9.3
146
Branches:
(1) Vidhyadhar Nagar (2) Mansarovar (3) Lal Khothi 9.4
147
F-test 1%
Branches:
(1) Vidhyadhar Nagar (2) Mansarovar (3) Lal Khothi 9.5
148
Branches:
(1) Vidhyadhar Nagar (2) Mansarovar (3) Lal Khothi 9.6