HO 2 - Russia Ukraine

Q.
Recently, the US intelligence reports said the tension on the Russia-Ukraine border represents a
major security crisis for the region, with the potential to snowball into a broader conflict.Analyse
the causes for this rising tension between the two countries. Bring out the importance of the Minsk
agreements & relevance of Black sea as catalysts in the conflict?
Background
1. Ukraine and Russia share hundreds of years of cultural, linguistic and familial
links.For many in Russia and in the ethnically Russian parts of Ukraine, the shared
heritage of the countries is an emotional issue that has been exploited for electoral
and military purposes.As part of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was the second-most
powerful Soviet republic after Russia, and was crucial strategically, economically
and culturally.
2. Cause of Conflict.
(a) Balance of Power. Ever since Ukraine split from the Soviet Union, both
Russia and the West have vied for greater influence in the country in order to keep
the bal of power in the region in their favour.
(b) Buffer Zone for Western Countries. For the US and the European Union,
Ukraine is a crucial buffer between Russia and the West. As tensions with
Russia rise, the US and the EU are increasingly determined to keep Ukraine away
from Russian control.
(c) Russian Interest in Black Sea. The unique geography of the Black Sea
region confers several geopolitical advantages to Russia:-
(i) Firstly, it is an important crossroads and strategic intersection for
the entire region.
(ii) Access to the Black Sea is vital for all littoral and neighboring
states, and greatly enhances the projection of power into several adjacent
regions.
(iii) Secondly, the region is an important transit corridor for goods
and energy.
(d) Protests in Ukraine.
(i) Euromaidan Movement. Euromaidan (European Square) was a wave

of demonstrations and civil unrest in Ukraine, which began in November 2013
with public protests in Maidan Nezalezhnosti ("Independence Square") in Kyiv,
Ukraine.The protests were sparked by the Ukrainian government's decision to
suspend the signing of an association agreement with the European Union,
instead choosing closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union.
(ii) Separatist Movement. The Donbass region (the Donetsk and Luhansk
regions) of eastern Ukraine has been facing a pro-Russian separatist
movement since 2014. According to the Ukrainian government, the movement
is actively supported by the Russian government and Russian paramilitaries
make up between 15% to 80% of the separatists fighting against the Ukraine
government.
(e) Invasion of Crimea.
(i) Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine in what was the first time a
European country annexed territory from another country since World
War-2.
(ii) The annexation of Crimea from Ukraine followed a Russian military
intervention in Crimea that took place in the aftermath of the 2014
Ukrainian revolution and was part of wider unrest across southern and
eastern Ukraine.
(iii) The invasion and subsequent annexation of Crimea have given
Russia a maritime upperhand in the region.
(f) Ukrain’s NATO Membership. Ukraine has urged the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO) to speed up his country’s membership in the
alliance.Russia has declared such a move a “red line”, and worried about the
consequences of the US-led military alliances expanding right up to its doorstep.
The Black Sea is bordered by Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and
Ukraine. All these countries are NATO countries. Due to this faceoff between
NATO countries and Russia, the Balck sea is a region of strategic importance & a
potential maritime flashpoint.
Minsk Agreements
3. Minsk I. Ukraine and the Russian-backed separatists agreed a 12-point

ceasefire deal in the capital of Belarus in September 2014.
(a) Its provisions included prisoner exchanges, deliveries of humanitarian aid

and the withdrawal of heavy weapons.
(b) The agreement quickly broke down, with violations by both sides.
4. Minsk II. In 2015, an open conflict was averted after the ‘Minsk II’ peace
agreement was signed, under the mediation of France and Germany.
(a) It was designed to end the fighting in the rebel regions and hand over
the border to Ukraine’s national troops.
(b) It was signed by Representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the Organisation
for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the leaders of two pro-
Russian separatist regions. OSCE is the world's largest security-oriented
intergovernmental organisation. Its mandate includes issues such as arms
control, promotion of human rights, freedom of the press, and fair elections.
Current Situation
5. Russia is seeking assurances from the US that Ukraine will not be inducted
into NATO. However, the US is not prepared to give any such assurance. This has
left the countries in a stand-off, with tens of thousands of Russian troops ready to
invade Ukraine.
6. Russia is keeping the tensions high at the Ukraine border in order to get
sanctions relief and other concessions from the West.
7. Any kind of military action by the US or EU against Russia would precipitate a
major crisis for the whole world, and has so far not been mooted by any of the
parties involved.
India’s Stand
8. India did not join the Western powers’ condemnation of Russia’s intervention in
Crimea and kept a low profile on the issue. In November 2020, India voted
against a Ukraine-sponsored resolution in the United Nations (UN) that condemned
alleged human rights violations in Crimea thereby backing old ally Russia on the
issue.
Black Sea
9. The Black Sea is located between Eastern Europe and Western Asia. It is
surrounded by the Pontic, Caucasus, and Crimean Mountains in the south, east and
north respectively.The Black Sea is also connected to the Sea of Azov by the Strait of
Kerch.The Turkish straits system - the Dardanelles, Bosporus and Marmara Sea -
forms a transitional zone between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Bordering
countries of Black Sea are: Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Turkey, Bulgaria and
Romania. There is a significant absence of oxygen in the water (anoxic waters).
Way Forward
10. A practical solution for the situation is to revive the Minsk peace process. Therefore
the West (US and Other western Countries) should push both sides to resume talks
and live up to their commitments as per the Minsk agreement to restore relative
peace on the border.

HO 2 - Russia Ukraine

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Q.

(i) Euromaidan Movement. Euromaidan (European Square) was a wave

(e) Invasion of Crimea.

3. Minsk I. Ukraine and the Russian-backed separatists agreed a 12-point

(a) Its provisions included prisoner exchanges, deliveries of humanitarian aid

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