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Mid Term Exam Paper - Part A - Solution

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39 views7 pages

Mid Term Exam Paper - Part A - Solution

now

Uploaded by

ahmad.q1p0
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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SULEMAN DAWOOD SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

LAHORE UNIVERSITY OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCES

Semester: Fall 2023-24 Instructor: Dr. Attique ur Rehman


Subject: Decision Analysis Subject Code: DISC 321
Exam: Mid-Term (part A) Date: October 21, 2023
Total Marks: 20 Time Allowed: 40 Minutes

Marks Obtained: _________

Name: ________________________ Roll No: ________________

Instructions:
• You have 40 minutes to complete this part, so make sure you are managing and
allocating your time to the short and long questions optimally.
• You will get 5 extra minutes in the beginning, the first 2-3 of which you can use to
read the questions and the remaining to ask if you have any relevant questions or
clarifications.
• Make sure that the answer is focused and precisely confined in the area provided.
• This is a closed book/closed notes exam. You are allowed to have one blank sheet
of paper for any rough work needed. You should have your stationary items
including calculators. No borrowing allowed.
• Mobile phones are not allowed in your possession.
• Please write neatly since it gets very hard for the instructor to understand what
you are trying to write.
• In the MCQs section, make sure that you do not overwrite/cut out in any part.
Overwriting/cutting will lead to losing marks. Circle one finalized option.

Best of Luck!!
PART I: Multiple Choice Questions (1 mark each)
1. Technical skills do not involve modeling the heuristics.
a. True
b. False
c. Indifferent
2. Gathering the data, clarifying the feelings, observations, and examining the situation
are all part of ___________ thinking.
a. Convergent
b. Divergent
c. Cognizant
d. Diversified
3. In the context of decision making, why is it important to distinguish between means
and fundamental objectives?
a. To simplify the decision-making process
b. To prioritize fundamental objectives over means objectives
c. To ensure that the appropriate objectives are specified in the decision model
d. To minimize the importance of fundamental objectives
4. While developing ____________, a modeler takes a number of assumptions.
a. Prototype
b. Final model
c. An objective function
d. A decision tree
5. You need to hire an employee in the marketing department. You chalked out three
fundamental objectives i.e., maximize the market share, improve customer service, and
provide leadership to the team. Which of the following means objective can help
achieve all the mentioned fundamental objectives:
a. Experience of the employee
b. Effective leadership skills
c. Effective communication skills
d. Effective brand management

PART II: Short Questions


I. LIST three characteristics of a well-structured problem statement. (any three would be
correct)
1. Objectives are clear
2. Assumptions made are obvious
3. All necessary data is available
4. Logical structure behind the problem is well understood.
(3 marks)
II. Define the concept of modeling heuristics with example.
In general, a heuristic is an approach, a strategy, or a trick that has often proved effective in a given
situation. A widely cited example from general problem solving is to write down everything we
know about a problem. Heuristics are thought to be one of the most common ways humans deal
with the complexities of the world around them, so it should not be surprising to find that modelers
have their own.
(2 marks)
PART III: Problems
1. Rana Packaging Manufacturers are considering two investment options to invest their
last year’s profit of $2000. In the investment type “X”, there is a a% chance that this
venture will not be a game changer and they will end up with a final payoff of $2000.
But if this venture booms, then there is a 45% chance that their influence in the market
will be dominant and they will end up with $15000 as a final payoff, and $8000
otherwise. Considering venture “Y”, there are b% chances of success leading to a final
settlement/payoff of $9200 and, $1200 otherwise.
a. Develop a strategy region for probabilities of success of Venture-X and
Venture-Y.
b. If chance of success of venture -V is 39%, at which probability value of success
of venture-X, Rana Packaging will be indifferent in its decision?

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2. Convert the below multi-objective dilemma into a single-objective problem using
proportional scoring method.
(Preference weightages: Cost = 0.45, Time = 0.32, Customer satisfaction = 0.13)
Alternative Cost ($) Time (hrs) Tax Rebate points Customer
(Minimize) (Minimize) (numbers) satisfaction points
(Maximize) (numbers)
(Maximize)
Alpha 50000 42 98 56
Beta 45000 35 124 67
Charlie 42000 74 156 73
Delta 53000 53 76 43

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