Russia's grand ambitions are crumbling faster than anyone could have imagined.

After more than a

decade of relentless aggression, Russia—a global military power—finds itself unable to crush Ukraine. Its
mighty Black Sea Fleet is reduced to scattered wreckage. Its Air Force, despite its size, has failed to
secure the skies or halt a single convoy of supplies entering Ukraine. Yet, the most shocking part? The
outcome of this war hangs not in Moscow, but in Washington. The future of Ukraine depends on one
critical decision.

And that's where we turn to retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who has been closely analyzing the
war's trajectory and the pivotal role the United States must play in determining its conclusion.

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After laying out the critical role of U.S. support in determining Ukraine's fate, it's clear that the stakes are
much higher than just the battlefield. The decisions made in the next year will not only shape the future
of Ukraine but could have a ripple effect far beyond Europe. The consequences of inaction could
embolden adversaries on a global scale, with dangerous implications for the West. Let's dive into this
next crucial point.

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The war in Ukraine is not only a physical battleground but also a stage for complex international power
dynamics and potential strategic shifts that could shape the course of this conflict for years to come.

Recent news circulating from various outlets, including a controversial report from *Bild*, suggests that
Ukraine may be positioning itself to develop nuclear weaponry. While Ukraine has officially denied these
claims, the mere possibility sparks considerable geopolitical tension. This speculation emerges from
Ukraine’s complicated nuclear history. When the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, Ukraine inherited the
third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world, including sophisticated strategic bombers like the Tu-160.
However, under immense pressure from Western powers and Russia, Ukraine relinquished its nuclear
weapons in exchange for security guarantees under the Budapest Memorandum of 1994.

The Budapest Memorandum was a pivotal moment, as it involved assurances from the United States, the
United Kingdom, and Russia to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty in exchange for
disarmament. However, as we have seen with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and again in 2022,
these guarantees have proven hollow. Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have
repeatedly lamented the decision to give up the country’s nuclear arsenal, especially in the wake of
Russia's aggression.

While Ukraine maintains that it is not seeking to develop nuclear weapons and instead focuses on
securing NATO membership, the issue of nuclear deterrence remains at the forefront of national security
discussions. Ukraine’s call for NATO membership underscores the strategic necessity of stronger defense
alliances, especially with a nuclear-armed Russia posing a direct threat. Zelensky has emphasized
repeatedly that NATO membership is crucial for Ukraine’s long-term security, but membership remains a
distant goal, with many Western leaders dragging their feet out of fear of escalating the conflict.
This debate over Ukraine’s nuclear past and its uncertain security future is more than just theoretical.
Russia has already positioned tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, heightening the stakes even further.
While Western powers, particularly democratic leaders, remain wary of direct confrontation with Russia,
authoritarian regimes are often more willing to engage in escalatory actions, as evidenced by Russia’s
aggressive tactics throughout the war. As such, Ukraine’s discussions about its nuclear past serve as a
stark reminder of the fragile security guarantees that have failed to protect the country from invasion.

On the ground, the situation remains fluid, with Russian forces making incremental gains in some areas
while Ukrainian forces continue to push back in others. One of the more notable developments comes
from the village of Nevelske, where Ukrainian forces launched a ground assault to reclaim territory
recently seized by Russian troops. Although the results of this operation are still unclear, it is a testament
to Ukraine’s determination to retake occupied regions, despite the formidable Russian resistance.

However, Russia has managed to secure a foothold in certain regions, particularly in the eastern part of
Ukraine. In the Kharkiv region, Russian forces have continued their offensive, capturing parts of Nevelske
and advancing towards nearby villages. This offensive is aimed at expanding their control over the region
and solidifying their strategic position for further northern advances. Ukrainian forces are reportedly
engaged in fierce resistance, but Russia’s gains in the area cannot be overlooked.

Elsewhere, the situation is more stable but still tense. In the Donetsk region, Russian forces have made
small gains, but Ukrainian defenses have largely held firm, preventing any significant breakthrough.
Similarly, in the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian forces attempted to push towards Ukrainian positions, but
progress has been slow, with Ukrainian forces managing to contain their advances.

One of the most notable aspects of the ongoing conflict has been the significant role of drone warfare.
Russia has launched waves of drone strikes against Ukraine, with the latest barrage targeting Kyiv.
Ukrainian air defense systems have become increasingly effective at countering these attacks, with
reports indicating that Ukrainian forces shot down over 80 drones in a single night, marking a record
number of intercepted drones. These drones, often of the "Giran" variety, are part of Russia’s strategy to
wear down Ukraine’s air defenses and terrorize civilian populations, but Ukraine's increasing success in
neutralizing them demonstrates its growing capability in aerial defense.

Despite these successes, the drone attacks continue to pose a serious threat, as they are relatively low-
cost and can be launched in large numbers. The ongoing drone campaign underscores the importance of
continued Western support for Ukraine’s air defense systems. Without adequate missile defense systems
and anti-drone technologies, Ukraine’s urban centers, including Kyiv, remain vulnerable to continued
strikes.

General Oleksandr Syrskyi, one of Ukraine’s key military commanders, provided a sobering assessment of
the war’s current trajectory. He noted that without robust security guarantees and continued military
support from the West, the war is unlikely to end in the near future. The general highlighted the lack of
sufficient weaponry for Ukraine’s much-anticipated summer counteroffensive, which, while achieving
some territorial gains, failed to deliver a decisive breakthrough against Russian forces. This admission is
significant, as it signals a potential need for a reevaluation of Ukraine’s military strategy going forward.

The counteroffensive, which was launched with high expectations, ultimately fell short of its goals due to
the well-fortified Russian defenses and the overwhelming firepower available to Moscow’s forces. While
Ukraine was able to reclaim some territories, the heavy losses suffered during these operations have
been a blow to Ukrainian morale. The high hopes for a swift and decisive victory have given way to the
harsh realities of a protracted war against a deeply entrenched enemy.

the situation in Ukraine remains incredibly complex, with both military and political factors at play. The
possibility of nuclear weapons development, though officially denied, underscores the level of
desperation and determination in Kyiv as it seeks to secure its future against Russian aggression.
Meanwhile, the ongoing ground battles in the east, coupled with relentless drone attacks, demonstrate
that the war is far from over. Despite these challenges, Ukraine continues to resist, bolstered by the hope
of future NATO membership and continued international support.

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