GCE A Level Maths 9709

SMIYL
May 2023

5.3 Probability
In this topic we will learn how to

• calculate and use conditional probabilities in simple cases

Tree Diagrams and Conditional Probability

Tree diagrams are a way to calculate the possible outcomes in an

organized way. We will learn how to draw and use them below.

Conditional probability is the likelihood of an event occurring based

on the occurrence of a previous event. It is denoted by,

P (A|B)

The above reads as the probability of A given B where A and B are two
different events. The formula for calculating conditional probability
is,
P (A ∩ B)
P (B|A) =
P (A)

Let’s look at some past paper questions.

1. On Mondays, Rani cooks her evening meal. She has a pizza, a burger or
a curry with probabilities 0.35, 0.44, 0.21 respectively. When she cooks
a pizza, Rani has some fruit with a probability of 0.3. When she cooks
a burger, she has some fruit with a probability of 0.8. When she cooks a
curry, she never has any fruit. (9709/52/M/J/21 number 3)

(a) Draw a fully labeled tree diagram to represent this information.

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 Start by drawing three branches,

Label each branch with Pizza, Burger, Curry, and the re-
spective probabilities,
Pizza
0.35

0.44
Burger
0.21

Curry

Draw branches extending from first set of branches labelled

with Fruit or No Fruit, for each of Pizza, Burger and Curry
and label with respective probabilities,
Fruit
0.3
0.7
Pizza No Fruit
0.35
0.8 Fruit
0.44
Burger 0.2
0.21 No Fruit

0
Curry Fruit
1

No Fruit

This is the final piece.

(b) Find the probability that Rani has some fruit.

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 The probability that Rani has some fruit, can be written as,
P (Fruit) = P (Pizza and Fruit)+P (Burger and Fruit)+P (Curry and Fruit)

Read off the probabilities from the tree diagram and sub-
stitute,
P (Fruit) = (0.35 × 0.3) + (0.44 × 0.8) + (0.21 × 0)

This simplifies to give,

P (Fruit) = 0.105 + 0.352
P (Fruit) = 0.457

Therefore, the final answer is,

P (Fruit) = 0.457

(c) Find the probability that Rani does not have a burger given that she
does not have any fruit.

In the question they have used the word ’given’, this im-
plies that this is conditional probability. The formula for
conditional probability is,
P (A ∩ B)
P (B|A) =
P (A)

Let’s assign the letters to their events in context,

A - Rani does not have fruit
B - Rani does not have a burger
A ∩ B - Rani does not have fruit and does not have a burger

Note: In the formula, it is B given A. So from the question,

assign the ’given’ event to A, and the other event to B.

Now let’s find the probability of event A happening. In part

(b) we calculated the probability that Rani has fruit, we can
use that to find the probability that he does not have fruit,
P (A) = 1 − P (Fruit)
P (A) = 1 − 0.457
P (A) = 0.543

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 Now let’s find the probability of the intersection of A and
B. This can be written as,

P (A ∩ B) = P (No Burger and No Fruit)

P (A ∩ B) = P (Pizza and No Fruit) + P (Curry and No Fruit)

Read off the probabilities from the tree diagram,

P (A ∩ B) = (0.35 × 0.7) + (0.21 × 1)

This simplifies to give,

P (A ∩ B) = 0.245 + 0.21

P (A ∩ B) = 0.455

Now let’s substitute into the formula for conditional proba-

bility,
P (A ∩ B)
P (B|A) =
P (A)
0.455
P (B|A) =
0.543
455
P (B|A) =
543
P (B|A) = 0.838

Therefore, the final answer is,

P (B|A) = 0.838

2. On each day that Alexa goes to work, the probabilities that she travels
by bus, by train or by car are 0.4, 0.35 and 0.25 respectively. When she
travels by bus, the probability that she arrives late is 0.55. When she
travels by train, the probability that she arrives late is 0.7. When she
travels by car, the probability that she arrives late is x. On a randomly
chosen day when Alexa goes to work, the probability that she does not
arrive late is 0.48. (9709/52/M/J/21 number 3)

(a) Find the value of x.

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Let’s sketch a tree diagram, with the information we have
been given,
Late
0.55
0.45
Bus Not Late
0.4
0.7 Late
0.35
Train 0.3
0.25 Not Late

x
Car Late
1−x
Not Late

We have been given that,

P (Not Late) = 0.48

We will use that idea to solve for x.

Using the tree diagram, we can also say that,

P (Not Late) = P (Bus and Not Late)+P (Train and Not Late)+P (Car and Not Late)

Therefore, we can rewrite that as,

0.48 = P (Bus and Not Late)+P (Train and Not Late)+P (Car and Not Late)

Read off the probabilities from the tree diagram,

0.48 = (0.4 × 0.45) + (0.35 × 0.3) + [0.25(1 − x)]

Simplify and solve for x,

0.48 = 0.18 + 0.105 + 0.25 − 0.25x

0.48 = 0.535 − 0.25x

0.25x = 0.535 − 0.48
0.25x = 0.055
x = 0.22

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 Therefore, the final answer is,

x = 0.22

(b) Find the probability that Alexa travels to work by train given that
she arrives late.

In the question they have used the word ’given’, this im-
plies that this is conditional probability. The formula for
conditional probability is,
P (A ∩ B)
P (B|A) =
P (A)

Let’s assign the letters to their events in context,

A - Alexa arrives late

B - Alexa travels to work by train

A ∩ B - Alexa travels by train and arrives late

Note: In the formula, it is B given A. So from the question,

assign the ’given’ event to A, and the other event to B.

Now let’s find the probability of event A happening. In the

stem of the question we’re given that the probability that
Alexa does not arrive late is 0.48, let’s use that to calculate
the probability that she does arrive late,

P (A) = 1 − P (Not Late)

P (A) = 1 − 0.48
P (A) = 0.52

Now let’s find the probability of the intersection of A and

B. This can be written as,

P (A ∩ B) = P (Train and Late)

Read off the probabilities from the tree diagram,

P (A ∩ B) = 0.35 × 0.7

This simplifies to give,

P (A ∩ B) = 0.245

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Now let’s substitute into the formula for conditional proba-
bility,
P (A ∩ B)
P (B|A) =
P (A)
0.245
P (B|A) =
0.52
49
P (B|A) =
104

Therefore, the final answer is,

49
P (B|A) =
104