MATH 270 Chapter 6: Discrete Probability Distributions Fall 2024

Random Variables and Probability Distributions

• Consider a probability experiment in which we flip a coin three times. The outcomes of the experiment are
{HHH , HHT , HTH , HTT , THH , THT , TTH , TTT } . Rather than being interested in a particular outcome, we
might be interested in the number of heads. Something like this:

In this case, the number of heads is called a random variable.

• A random variable is a numerical measure of the outcome from a
probability experiment, so its value is determined by chance. Random
variables are denoted using letters such as X.

• A discrete random variable is a variable whose value is obtained by counting.

Examples. number of students present, number of red marbles in a jar, number of heads when flipping three
coins, number of As earned in a section of statistics
• A continuous random variable is a variable whose value is obtained by measuring.
Examples. height of students in class, weight of students in class, time it takes to get to school, distance
traveled between classes
Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables

• The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X provides the possible values of the random
variable and their corresponding probabilities. A probability distribution can be in the form of a table, graph,
or mathematical formula.
Rules for a Discrete Probability Distribution
Let P(x) denote the probability that the random variable X equals x; then
1. 0  P ( x)  1 ; each probability must be between 0 and 1, inclusive.
2.  P( x) = 1 ; the sum of the probabilities must equal 1.

Example 1. Which of the following is

a discrete probability distribution?
Answer
(a)
(b)
(c)

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 The Mean (Expected Value) and Variance of a discrete random variable

1. Mean:  = E ( X ) =  [ x  P( x)]
2. Variance:  =
2
 ( x −  ) 2
 P( x) 
3. Standard Deviation:  =  2

Example 2. Suppose we ask a basketball player to shoot three free throws. Let the
random variable X represent the number of shots made, so x = 0, 1, 2, or 3. The table
shows a probability distribution for the random variable X. Find the mean, variance,
and standard deviation of the random variable X.
Solution:
Mean =  =  [ x  P( x)] =

x P(x) ( x −  ) 2  P( x)
0 0.01 (0 − 2.39) 2  0.01 = 0.057121

1 0.10 (1 − 2.39) 2  0.10 = 0.19321

2 0.38 (2 − 2.39) 2  0.38 = 0.057798

3 0.51 (3 − 2.39) 2  0.51 = 0.189771

Variance = Sum =  ( x −  ) 2

 P( x)  = 0.4979

Example 3. Suppose an individual plays a gambling game where it is possible to lose $1.00, break even, win
$3.00, or win $5.00 each time she plays. The probability distribution is provided by the following table:
x −$1.00 $0.00 $3.00 $5.00
p(x) 0.30 0.40 0.20 0.10
Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of X.
Solution:

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Example 4. Let Y denote the number of broken eggs in a randomly selected carton of one dozen eggs. Suppose
that the probability distribution of Y is as follows:

y 0 1 2 3 4
P(y) .65 .20 .10 .04 ?

(a) What is P(4)?

Answer:

(b) Calculate P(Y ≤ 2), the probability that the carton contains at most two broken eggs.
Answer:

(c) Calculate P(Y < 2), the probability that the carton contains fewer than two broken eggs.
Answer:

(d) What is the probability that the carton contains exactly 10 unbroken eggs?
Answer:

(e) What is the probability that at least 10 eggs are unbroken?

Answer:

(f) Determine the mean and standard deviation of Y.

Answer:  = E (Y ) =  [ y  P( y )] = 0(0.65) + 1(0.2) + 2(0.1) + 3(0.04) + 4(0.01) = 0.56

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 The Binomial Probability Distribution
• The binomial probability distribution is a discrete probability distribution that describes probabilities for
experiments in which there are two mutually exclusive (disjoint) outcomes. These two outcomes are
generally referred to as success (such as making a free throw) and failure (such as missing a free throw).

Criteria for a Binomial Probability Experiment

An experiment is said to be a binomial experiment if
1. The number of trials, n, is fixed in advance.
2. The trials are independent. i.e., the outcome of one trial will not affect the outcome of the other trials.
3. For each trial, there are two mutually exclusive (disjoint) outcomes: success or failure.
4. The probability of success, p, is the same for each trial of the experiment.

Example 5. Determine which of the following probability experiments qualify as a binomial experiment. For
those that are binomial experiments, identify the number of trials, probability of success, probability of failure,
and possible values of the random variable X.
(a) An experiment in which a basketball player who historically makes 80% of his free throws is asked to shoot
three free throws, and the number of free throws made is recorded.
Answer: This is a binomial experiment because
1. There are n = 3 trials.
2. The trials are independent.
3. There are two possible outcomes: make or miss.
4. The probability of success (make) is 0.8 and the probability of failure (miss) is 0.2. The probabilities are the
same for each trial.
The random variable X is the number of free throws made with x = 0, 1, 2, or 3.
(b) The number of people with blood type O-negative based on a simple random sample of size 10 is recorded.
According to the American Red Cross, 7% of people in the United States have blood type O-negative.
Answer: This is a binomial experiment because
1. There are 10 trials (the 10 randomly selected people).
2. The trials are independent.
3. There are two possible outcomes: finding a person with blood type O-negative or not.
4. The probability of success is 0.07 and the probability of failure is 0.93.
The random variable X is the number of people with blood type O-negative with x = 0, 1, 2, 3, …, 10.
(c) A probability experiment in which three cards are drawn from a standard 52-card deck without replacement
and the number of aces is recorded.
Answer: This is not a binomial experiment because the trials are not independent. The probability of an ace on
the first trial is 4/52. Because we are sampling without replacement, if an ace is selected on the first trial, the
probability of an ace on the second trial is 3/51. If an ace is not selected on the first trial, the probability of an
ace on the second trial is 4/51.

DEFINITION. If we let X represent the number of “successes” in the binomial experiment, then we say that X
is a binomial random variable and the probability distribution of X is
n
P( x) =   p x (1 − p) n − x , x = 0,1, 2, , n
 x
n n!
Note that   = represents the number of ways of obtaining x successes in n trials.
 x  x !(n − x)!
Mean (or Expected Value) and Variance of a Binomial Random Variable
A binomial experiment with n independent trials and probability of success p has a mean and variance given
by the formulas
Mean =  = np ; Variance =  2 = np (1 − p ) ; Standard Deviation =  = np (1 − p)

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Example 6. A poll reported that 65% of adults were satisfied with the job the major airlines were doing.
Suppose 9 adults are selected at random and the number who are satisfied is recorded.

(a) Find the probability that exactly 7 of them are satisfied with the airlines.
Answer:

(b) Find the probability that at least 6 of them are satisfied with the airlines.
Answer:

(c) Find the probability that at most 5 of them are satisfied with the airlines.
Answer:

(d) Find the probability that between 4 and 7 of them, inclusive, are satisfied with the airlines.
Answer:

(e) Would it be unusual to find more than 6 who are satisfied with the job the major airlines were doing?
Answer:

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Example 7. A league-average free throw shooter in the NBA shoots 75% from the free throw line. (LeBron
James is approximately a league-average free throw shooter). Suppose LeBron is fouled on a three-point field
goal attempt and is awarded three free throws. Assume that there is 0.75 probability that he makes each free
throw and that each free throw is independent.
(a) Find the probability that LeBron makes all 3 free throws.
(b) Find the probability that LeBron makes exactly 2 of the 3 free throws.
(c) Find the probability that LeBron makes at least 2 of the 3 free throws.
(d) Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of X.

Solution:
Let X: Number of shots made. Then X is a binomial random variable with n = 3 and p = 0.75 .

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)