Mobility

Autonomous Vehicles Autonomous Vehicle Technologies1,7,8,9

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) use technology to partially or entirely

replace the human driver in navigating a vehicle while avoiding
road hazards and responding to traffic conditions.1 The Society
of Automotive Engineers (SAE) has developed, and the U.S.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) uses, a
classification system with six levels based on the level of human
intervention.2

SAE Levels of Automation2,3

Current and Projected Market

Key Market Leaders
• In 2021, North America was preceived to be leading the AV
race ahead of China. In 2023, this perception was evenly split,
according to a McKinsey survey.10
• Waymo has tested its vehicles by driving over 20M miles on
roads and tens of billions of miles in simulation.11 Teslas have
driven over 3B miles in Autopilot mode since 2014.12
• Other major players include Audi, BMW, Daimler, GM, Nissan,
Volvo, Bosch, Continental, Mobileye, Valeo, Velodyne,
Nvidia, Ford, as well as many other OEMs and technology
companies.6,13

Regulations, Liability, and Projected Timeline

Development of Autonomous Vehicles • Regulation will impact the adoption of AVs.14 In the U.S. there
are no national standards or guidelines for AVs, allowing
AV research started in the 1980s when universities began
states to determine their own.14 In 2018, Congress worked
working on two types of AVs: one that required roadway infra-
to pass the AV Start Act that would have implemented a
structure and one that did not.1 The U.S. Defense Advanced
framework for the testing, regulating, and deploying of AVs.
Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has held “grand challenges”
The legislation failed to pass both houses.15 As of February
testing the performance of AVs on a 150-mi off-road course.1
2020, 29 states and D.C. have enacted legislation regarding
No vehicles successfully finished the 2004 Grand Challenge, but
the definition of AVs, their use, and liability.16
five completed the course in 2005.1 In 2007, six teams finished
the third challenge, which consisted of a 60-mi course navigating • Product liability laws need to assign liability properly when
an urban environment obeying normal traffic laws.1 In 2015, the AV crashes occur, as highlighted by the May 2016 Tesla Model
University of Michigan built Mcity, the first facility built for testing S fatality. Liability will depend on multiple factors, especially
AVs. Research is conducted there on the safety, efficiency, ac- whether the vehicle was being operated appropriately to its
cessibility, and commercial viability of AVs.4 Unmanned aircraft level of automation.17,18
systems (UAS), or drones, are being deployed for commercial • Although researchers, OEMs, and industry experts have
ventures such as last-mile package delivery, medical supply different projected timelines for AV market penetration
transportation, and inspection of critical infrastructure.5 and full adoption, the majority predict Level 5 AVs around
Autonomous Vehicle Technologies 2030.19,20

AVs use combinations of technologies and sensors to sense the

roadway, other vehicles, and objects on and along the roadway.6
 • Travel Cost Reduction, due to decreased insurance cost and
Current Limitations and Barriers improvements in productivity and driving comfort, could
• There are several limitations and barriers that could result in increased travel, potentially increasing energy
impede adoption of AVs, including lack of buyer demand, consumption 4% to 60%.21
data security, protection against cyberattacks, regulations
• New User Groups are likely to increase VMT and fuel
compatible with driverless operation, resolved liability laws,
consumption by 2-10%.21
societal attitude and behavior change regarding distrust and
subsequent resistance to AV use, and the development of • Changed Mobility Services, such as an increase in ride-sharing
economically viable AV technologies.6 could reduce energy consumption 0-20%.21,26

• Weather can adversely affect sensor performance on AVs, Although an accurate assessment of these interconnected
potentially impeding adoption. Ford recognized this barrier impacts cannot currently be made, one study evaluated
and started conducting AV testing in the snow in 2016 at the potential impacts of four scenarios, each with unknown
Mcity, utilizing technologies suited for poor weather.13 likelihoods. The most optimistic scenario projected a 40%
decrease in road transport energy and the most pessimistic
Impacts and Solutions scenario projected a 105% increase in road transport energy.21

• Although AVs alone are unlikely to have significant direct Projected Fuel Consumption Impact Ranges21,25
impacts on energy consumption and GHG emissions,
if effectively paired with other technologies and new
transportation models, significant indirect and synergistic
effects on economics, the environment, and society are
possible.21,22
• One study found that when eco-driving, platooning,
intersection connectivity and faster highway speeds are
considered as direct effects of AVs, energy use and GHG
emissions can be reduced by 9%.23

Metrics and Associated Impacts

• Congestion is predicted to decrease, reducing fuel
consumption by 0-4%. However, decreased congestion is
likely to lead to increased vehicle-miles traveled (VMT),
partially offsetting the fuel consumption benefit.21 Potential Benefits and Costs
• Eco-Driving , a set of practices that reduce fuel consumption, • 42,795 people died in vehicle crashes in 2022.27 94% of
is predicted to reduce energy consumption by up to 20%.21 crashes are due to human error. AVs have the potential to
However, if AV algorithms do not prioritize efficiency, fuel remove/reduce human error and decrease deaths.28
efficiency may actually decrease.24
• AVs have the potential to reduce crashes by 90%, potentially
• Performance, such as fast acceleration, is likely to become saving approximately $190B per year.29
de-emphasized when comfort and productivity become travel
• The U.S. AV market is expected to grow to over $75B in 2030,
priorities, potentially leading to a 5-23% reduction in fuel
representing an increase of 350% from 2023.30
consumption.21
• The last-mile AV energy savings for public transportation were
• Improved Crash Avoidance, due to the increased safety
over 33% when compared to private vehicles.31
features of AVs, may allow for the reduction of vehicle weight
and size, decreasing fuel consumption 5-23%.21 • Potential benefits include: improvements in safety and
public health, increased productivity, quality of life, mobility,
• Vehicle Right-Sizing , the ability to match the utility of a
accessibility, and travel, especially for the disabled and
vehicle to a given need, has the potential to decrease energy
elderly; reduction of energy use, environmental impacts,
consumption 21-45%, though the full benefits are only likely
congestion, and public and private costs associated with
when paired with a ride-sharing on-demand model.21
transportation; and increased adoption of car sharing.1,14,32,33
• Higher Highway Speeds are likely due to improved safety,
• Potential costs include increased congestion, VMT, urban
increasing fuel consumption 7-30%.21,25
sprawl, total time spent traveling, and upfront costs of private
car ownership leading to social equity issues; impacts on
other modes of transportation; and increased concern with
security, safety, and public health.1,14,25,33,34

Cite as: Center for Sustainable Systems, University of Michigan. 2024. “Autonomous Vehicles Factsheet.” Pub. No. CSS16-18. October 2024
Sources for this factsheet are here, help with units and abbreviations is here.