Ray Kurzweil
Ray Kurzweil
Ray Kurzweil
Ray Kurzweil decided at age five that he wanted to be an inventor.[5] As a young boy, he had an inventory of parts from
various construction toys he had been given and old electronic gadgets he had collected from neighbors. In his youth,
Kurzweil was an avid reader of science fiction. At age eight, nine, and ten, he read the entire Tom Swift Jr. series. At age
seven or eight, he built a robotic puppet theater and robotic game. He was involved with computers by age 12 (in 1960),
when only a dozen computers existed in New York City, and built computing devices and statistical programs for the
predecessor of Head Start.[6][7] At 14, Kurzweil wrote a paper detailing his theory of the neocortex.[8] His parents were
involved with the arts, and he is quoted in the documentary Transcendent Man[9] as saying that the household always
discussed the future and technology.[10]
Kurzweil attended Martin Van Buren High School. During class, he often held onto his class textbooks to seemingly
participate while focusing on his own projects hidden behind the book. His uncle, an engineer at Bell Labs, taught
Kurzweil the basics of computer science.[11] In 1963, at 15, he wrote his first computer program.[12]
Kurzweil created pattern-recognition software that analyzed the works of classical composers, then synthesized its own
songs in similar styles. In 1965 he was invited to appear on the CBS television program I've Got a Secret,[13] where he
performed a piano piece composed by a computer he had built.[14] Later in the year, he won first prize in the
International Science Fair for the invention;[15] his submission to Westinghouse Talent Search of his first computer
program alongside several other projects resulted in his being one of the contest's national winners, for which President
Lyndon B. Johnson personally congratulated him during a White House ceremony. The experiences impressed upon
Kurzweil the belief that nearly any problem could be overcome.[16]
Midlife
While in high school, Kurzweil had corresponded with Marvin Minsky and was invited to visit him at Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, which he did. Kurzweil also visited Frank Rosenblatt, a psychologist at Cornell.[17] He attended
MIT to study with Minsky, obtaining a B.Sc. degree in computer science and literature in 1970. Kurzweil took all the
computer programming courses (eight or nine) MIT offered in his first year and a half.
In 1968, during his second year at MIT, Kurzweil started a company that used a computer program to match high school
students with colleges. The program, called the Select College Consulting Program, was designed by him and compared
thousands of different criteria about each college with questionnaire answers each student applicant submitted. Around
that time he sold the company to Harcourt, Brace & World for $100,000 ($876,172 in 2023) plus royalties.[18] In 1974,
he founded Kurzweil Computer Products, Inc., and led development of the first omni-font optical character recognition
system, a computer program capable of recognizing text written in any normal font. Before that time, scanners had been
able to read text in only a few fonts. He decided that the technology's best application would be to create a reading
machine, which would allow blind people to understand text by having a computer read it to them aloud. But the device
required the invention of two enabling technologies—the CCD flatbed scanner and the text-to-speech synthesizer.
Development of these technologies was completed at other institutions like Bell Labs, and on January 13, 1976, the
finished product was unveiled during a news conference headed by Kurzweil and the leaders of the National Federation
of the Blind. Called the Kurzweil Reading Machine, the device was large and covered an entire tabletop. Stevie Wonder
heard about the demonstration of this new machine on The Today Show, and later became the user of the first production
Kurzweil Reading Machine, beginning a long-term association with Kurzweil.[19]
Kurzweil's next major business venture began in 1978, when Kurzweil Computer Products began selling a commercial
version of the optical character recognition computer program. LexisNexis was one of the first customers, and bought
the program to upload paper legal and news documents to its nascent online databases. He sold Kurzweil Computer
Products to Xerox, where it was first known as Xerox Imaging Systems and later as Scansoft; he was a consultant for
Xerox until 1995. In 1999, Visioneer, Inc. acquired Scansoft from Xerox to form a new public company with Scansoft
as the new company-wide name. Scansoft merged with Nuance Communications in 2005.
Kurzweil's next business venture was in electronic music technology. After a 1982 meeting with Stevie Wonder, in
which Wonder lamented the divide in capabilities and qualities between electronic synthesizers and traditional musical
instruments, Kurzweil was inspired to create a new generation of synthesizers that could duplicate the sounds of real
instruments. Kurzweil Music Systems was founded in the same year, and in 1984, the Kurzweil K250 was unveiled.[19]
The machine could imitate a number of instruments, and according to Kurzweil's press packet, musicians could not tell
the difference between the Kurzweil K250 on piano mode and a grand piano,[20] though reviewers who actually
attempted it questioned that.[21][22] The machine's recording and mixing abilities coupled with its ability to imitate
different instruments made it possible for a single user to compose and play an entire orchestral piece.
South Korean musical instrument manufacturer Young Chang bought Kurzweil Music Systems in 1990. As with Xerox,
Kurzweil remained as a consultant for several years. Hyundai acquired Young Chang in 2006, and in 2007 appointed
Kurzweil as Chief Strategy Officer of Kurzweil Music Systems.[23] Concurrent with Kurzweil Music Systems, he
created the company Kurzweil Applied Intelligence (KAI) to develop computer speech recognition systems for
commercial use. The first product, which debuted in 1987, was an early speech recognition program. KAI was sold to
Lernout & Hauspie in 1997.[24]
Later life
Kurzweil started Kurzweil Educational Systems (KESI) in 1996 to develop new pattern-recognition-based computer
technologies to help people with disabilities such as blindness, dyslexia, and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder
(ADHD) in school. Products include the Kurzweil 1000 text-to-speech converter software program, which enables a
computer to read electronic and scanned text aloud to blind or visually impaired users, and the Kurzweil 3000 program,
a multifaceted electronic learning system that helps with reading, writing, and study skills. Kurzweil sold KESI to
Lernout & Hauspie. After the legal and bankruptcy problems of the latter, he and other KESI employees bought back the
company. KESI was eventually sold to Cambium Learning Group, Inc.
Kurzweil has joined the Alcor Life Extension Foundation, a cryonics company. After his death, he has a plan to be
perfused with cryoprotectants, vitrified in liquid nitrogen, and stored at an Alcor facility in the hope that future medical
technology will be able to revive him.[31]
Personal life
Kurzweil is agnostic about the existence of a soul.[32] Of the possibility of divine intelligence, Kurzweil has said: "Does
God exist? I would say 'Not yet.' "[33] He married Sonya Rosenwald Kurzweil in 1975.[34] Sonya is a psychologist in
private practice in Newton, Massachusetts; she works with women, children, parents, and families. She holds faculty
appointments at Harvard Medical School and William James College in graduate education in psychology. Her research
interests and publications are in psychotherapy practice. She also serves as an active overseer at Boston Children's
Museum.[35] Ray and Sonya Kurzweil have a son, Ethan, a venture capitalist,[36] and a daughter, Amy, a
cartoonist.[37][38]
Creative approach
Kurzweil has said: "I realize that most inventions fail not because the R&D department can't get them to work, but
because the timing is wrong—not all of the enabling factors are at play where they are needed. Inventing is a lot like
surfing: you have to anticipate and catch the wave at just the right moment."[39][40] For the past several decades,
Kurzweil's most effective and common approach to doing creative work has been conducted during a lucid dreamlike
state immediately preceding his waking state. He claims to have constructed inventions, solved algorithmic, business
strategy, organizational, and interpersonal problems, and written speeches in this state.[17]
Books
Kurzweil's first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, was published in 1990. The nonfiction work discusses the
history of computer artificial intelligence (AI) and forecasts future developments. Other experts in the field of AI
contribute heavily to the work in the form of essays. The Association of American Publishers awarded it the status of
Most Outstanding Computer Science Book of 1990.[41]
In 1993, Kurzweil published a book on nutrition, The 10% Solution for a Healthy Life. Its main idea is that high levels
of fat intake are the cause of many health disorders common in the U.S., and thus that cutting fat consumption down to
10% of the total calories consumed is optimal for most people. In 1999, Kurzweil published The Age of Spiritual
Machines, which further elucidates his theories of the future of technology, which stem from his analysis of long-term
trends in biological and technological evolution. Much emphasis is on the likely course of AI development, along with
the future of computer architecture. Kurzweil's next book, Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever,
published in 2004, returned to human health and nutrition and was co-authored by Terry Grossman, a medical doctor
and specialist in alternative medicine.
The Singularity Is Near, published in 2005, was made into a movie starring Pauley Perrette. In 2007, Ptolemaic
Productions acquired the rights to The Singularity Is Near, The Age of Spiritual Machines, and Fantastic Voyage,
including the rights to film Kurzweil's life and ideas for the documentary film Transcendent Man,[9] which was directed
by Barry Ptolemy. Transcend: Nine Steps to Living Well Forever,[42] a follow-up to Fantastic Voyage, was released in
2009. Kurzweil's book How to Create a Mind was released in 2012.[43] In it he describes his Pattern Recognition Theory
of Mind, the theory that the neocortex is a hierarchical system of pattern recognizers, and argues that emulating this
architecture in machines could lead to an artificial superintelligence.[44]
Kurzweil's first novel, Danielle: Chronicles of a Superheroine, follows a girl who uses her intelligence and her friends'
help to tackle real-world problems. It follows a structure akin to the scientific method. Chapters are organized as year-
by-year episodes from Danielle's childhood and adolescence.[45] The book comes with companion materials, A
Chronicle of Ideas and How You Can Be a Danielle, that provide real-world context. It was released in 2019.[46]
Kurzweil's latest book, The Singularity Is Nearer: When We Merge with AI, was published in June 2024.[47]
Movies
In 2010, Kurzweil wrote and co-produced the movie The Singularity Is Near: A True Story About the Future, directed by
Anthony Waller and based in part on the book The Singularity Is Near. Part fiction, part nonfiction, the film blends
interviews with 20 big thinkers (such as Marvin Minsky) with a narrative story that illustrates some of Kurzweil's key
ideas, including a computer avatar (Ramona) who saves the world from self-replicating microscopic robots. An
independent, feature-length documentary, Transcendent Man, was made about Kurzweil, his life, and his ideas.[9]
In 2010, an independent documentary film, Plug & Pray, premiered at the Seattle International Film Festival, in which
Kurzweil and one of his major critics, the late Joseph Weizenbaum, argue about the benefits of eternal life.[48]
Independent filmmaker Doug Wolens's feature-length documentary film The Singularity (2012) showcases Kurzweil
and has been acclaimed as "a large-scale achievement in its documentation of futurist and counter-futurist ideas" and
"the best documentary on the Singularity to date".[49]
Music
Views
In media appearances, Kurzweil has stressed nanotechnology's extreme potential dangers[14] but argues that, in practice,
progress cannot be stopped because that would require a totalitarian system, and any attempt to do so would drive
dangerous technologies underground and deprive responsible scientists of the tools needed for defense. He suggests that
the proper place of regulation is to ensure that technological progress proceeds safely and quickly but does not deprive
the world of profound benefits. He said: "To avoid dangers such as unrestrained nanobot replication, we need
relinquishment at the right level and to place our highest priority on the continuing advance of defensive technologies,
staying ahead of destructive technologies. An overall strategy should include a streamlined regulatory process, a global
program of monitoring for unknown or evolving biological pathogens, temporary moratoriums, raising public
awareness, international cooperation, software reconnaissance, and fostering values of liberty, tolerance, and respect for
knowledge and diversity."[54]
Kurzweil asserts that in the future, everyone will live forever.[57] In a 2013 interview, he said that in 15 years, medical
technology could add more than a year to one's remaining life expectancy for each year that passes, and we could then
"outrun our own deaths". Among other things, he has supported the SENS Research Foundation's approach to finding a
way to repair aging damage, and has encouraged the general public to hasten their research by donating.[29][58]
Kurzweil views the human body as a system of thousands of "programs" and believes that understanding all their
functions could be the key to building truly sentient AI.[62][63]
Nuclear weapons
During a September 17, 2022, interview, Kurzweil explained his worries about technology being used for violence.
When asked about nuclear armageddon and the Russo-Ukrainian War, Kurzweil said: "I don't think [nuclear war] is
going to happen despite the terrors of that war. It is a possibility but it's unlikely, even with the tensions we've had with
the nuclear power plant that's been taken over. It's very tense but I don't actually see a lot of people worrying that's going
to happen. I think we'll avoid that. We had two nuclear bombs go off in [1945], so now we're 77 years later... we've
never had another one go off through anger... there are other dangers besides nuclear weapons."[66]
Predictions
Past predictions
Kurzweil's first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, presents his ideas about the future. Written from 1986 to 1989, it
was published in 1990. Building on Ithiel de Sola Pool's "Technologies of Freedom" (1983), Kurzweil claims to have
forecast the dissolution of the Soviet Union due to new technologies such as cellular phones and fax machines
disempowering authoritarian governments by removing state control of the flow of information.[67] In the book,
Kurzweil also extrapolates trends in improving computer chess software performance, predicting that computers will
beat the best human players "by the year 2000".[68] In May 1997, IBM's Deep Blue computer defeated chess World
Champion Garry Kasparov in a well-publicized chess match.[69]
Kurzweil foresaw the explosive growth in worldwide Internet use that began in the 1990s. When The Age of Intelligent
Machines was published, there were only 2.6 million Internet users in the world,[70] and the medium was unreliable,
difficult to use, and deficient in content. He also said that the Internet would explode not only in the number of users but
in content, eventually granting users access "to international networks of libraries, data bases, and information services".
Additionally, Kurzweil claims to have correctly foreseen that the preferred mode of Internet access would be through
wireless systems, and estimated that this development would become practical for widespread use in the early 21st
century. In October 2010, Kurzweil released his report "How My Predictions Are Faring" in PDF format,[71] analyzing
the predictions he made in his books The Age of Intelligent Machines, The Age of Spiritual Machines, and The
Singularity is Near. Of the 147 predictions, Kurzweil claimed that 115 were "entirely correct", 12 were "essentially
correct", 17 were "partially correct", and three were "wrong". Combining the "entirely" and "essentially" correct,
Kurzweil's claimed accuracy rate comes to 86%.
In Newsweek magazine, Daniel Lyons criticized Kurzweil for some of his incorrect predictions for 2009, such as that the
economy would continue to boom, that a U.S. company would have a market capitalization of more than $1 trillion, that
a supercomputer would achieve 20 petaflops, that speech recognition would be in widespread use, and that cars would
drive themselves using sensors installed in highways.[72] To the charge that a 20-petaflop supercomputer had not been
produced, Kurzweil responded that he considered Google a giant supercomputer, and that it was indeed capable of 20
petaflops.[72]
Forbes magazine claimed that Kurzweil's predictions for 2009 were mostly inaccurate, with seven incorrect, four
partially correct, and one correct. For example, Kurzweil predicted, "The majority of text is created using continuous
speech recognition", which was not the case.[73]
Future predictions
In 1999, Kurzweil published a second book titled The Age of Spiritual Machines, which goes into more depth explaining
his futurist ideas. In it, he says that with radical life extension will come radical life enhancement. He says he is
confident that within 10 years we will have the option to spend some of our time in 3D virtual environments that appear
just as real as real reality, but these will not yet be made possible via direct interaction with our nervous system. He
expounds on his prediction about nanorobotics, making the claim that within 20 years millions of blood-cell sized
devices, known as nanobots, would fight disease inside our bodies and improve our memory and cognitive abilities.
Kurzweil also claims that a machine will pass the Turing test by 2029. He says that humans will be a hybrid of
biological and non-biological intelligence that becomes increasingly dominated by its non-biological component.[74] In
Transcendent Man Kurzweil writes, "We humans are going to start linking with each other and become a
metaconnection; we will all be connected and omnipresent, plugged into a global network that is connected to billions of
people and filled with data."[9]
In 2008, Kurzweil said in an expert panel in the National Academy of Engineering that solar power will scale up to
produce all the energy needs of Earth's people in 20 years. According to him, we need to capture only 1 part in 10,000 of
the energy from the Sun that hits Earth's surface to meet all of humanity's energy needs.[75]
Reception
Praise
Kurzweil was called "the ultimate thinking machine" by Forbes[76] and a "restless genius" by The Wall Street
Journal.[77] PBS included him as one of 16 "revolutionaries who made America", along with other inventors of the past
two centuries.[78] Inc. magazine ranked Kurzweil eighth among the "most fascinating" entrepreneurs in the U.S. and
called him "Edison's rightful heir".[79] Bill Gates called him "the best at predicting the future of artificial
intelligence".[80]
Criticism
Although technological singularity is a popular concept in science fiction, authors such as Neal Stephenson[81] and
Bruce Sterling have voiced skepticism about its real-world plausibility. Sterling expressed his views on the singularity
scenario in a talk at the Long Now Foundation called The Singularity: Your Future as a Black Hole.[82][83] Other
prominent AI thinkers and computer scientists such as Daniel Dennett,[84] Rodney Brooks,[85] David Gelernter,[86] and
Paul Allen[87] have also criticized Kurzweil's projections.
In the cover article of the December 2010 issue of IEEE Spectrum, John Rennie criticizes Kurzweil for several
predictions that did not come true by the originally predicted date: "Therein lie the frustrations of Kurzweil's brand of
tech punditry. On close examination, his clearest and most successful predictions often lack originality or profundity.
And most of his predictions come with so many loopholes that they border on the unfalsifiable."[88]
Sun Microsystems co-founder Bill Joy agrees with Kurzweil's timeline of future progress, but thinks that technologies
such as AI, nanotechnology, and advanced biotechnology will create a dystopian world.[89] Lotus Development
Corporation founder Mitch Kapor has called the notion of a technological singularity "intelligent design for the IQ 140
people... This proposition that we're heading to this point at which everything is going to be just unimaginably different
—it's fundamentally, in my view, driven by a religious impulse. And all of the frantic arm-waving can't obscure that fact
for me."[26] Cognitive scientist Douglas Hofstadter has said of Kurzweil's and Hans Moravec's books: "It's an intimate
mixture of rubbish and good ideas, and it's very hard to disentangle the two, because these are smart people; they're not
stupid."[90] Biologist PZ Myers has criticized Kurzweil's predictions as based on "New Age spiritualism" rather than
science and says that Kurzweil does not understand basic biology.[91][92] VR pioneer Jaron Lanier has called Kurzweil's
ideas "cybernetic totalism" and outlined his views on the culture surrounding Kurzweil's predictions in an essay for the
Edge Foundation called One Half of a Manifesto.[49][93] Physicist and futurist Theodore Modis claims that Kurzweil's
thesis of a technological singularity lacks scientific rigor.[94]
British philosopher John N. Gray argued that contemporary science is what magic was for ancient civilizations: it gives
a sense of hope for those who are willing to do almost anything to achieve eternal life. He cites Kurzweil's singularity as
an example, noting that this line of thinking has been present throughout human history.[95] HP Newquist wrote in The
Brain Makers: "Born with the same gift for self-promotion that was a character trait of people like P.T. Barnum and Ed
Feigenbaum, Kurzweil had no problems talking up his technical prowess... Ray Kurzweil was not noted for his
understatement."[96]
In a 2015 paper, William D. Nordhaus of Yale University used a variety of econometric methods to run six supply-side
tests and one demand-side test to track the macroeconomic viability of the required steep rises in information
technology. Only two indicated that a singularity was economically possible and both predicted it would not occur for at
least 100 years.[97]
Bibliography
Non-fiction
The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990)
The 10% Solution for a Healthy Life (1993)
The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999)
Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever (2004 – co-authored with Dr. Terry Grossman)
The Singularity Is Near (2005)
Transcend: Nine Steps to Living Well Forever (2009 – co-authored with Dr. Terry Grossman)
How to Create a Mind (2012)
The Singularity Is Nearer (2024)
Fiction
Danielle: Chronicles of a Superheroine (2019)
See also
Technological singularity
Paradigm shift
Simulated reality
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External links
Official website (https://www.thekurzweillibrary.com/)
Appearances (https://www.c-span.org/person/?58760) on C-SPAN
Raymond Kurzweil (https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0961244/) at IMDb
Ray Kurzweil Interview (https://www.namm.org/library/oral-history/ray-kurzweil) at NAMM Oral History
Collection (January 20, 2007)
Official Danielle Superheroine website (https://www.danielleworld.com/)
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