What is Probability?

Probability can be defined as the ratio of the number of favourable outcomes to the total number of outcomes
of an event. For an experiment having 'n' number of outcomes, the number of favourable outcomes can be
denoted by x. The formula to calculate the probability of an event is as follows.

Probability (Event) = Favourable Outcomes/Total Outcomes = x/n

Probability denotes the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. The following formula is used to calculate the
probability of an event.

Probability of event A = P(A) = (Number of outcomes favourable) / (Total number of outcomes)

Probability is used to predict the outcomes for the tossing of coins, rolling of dice, or drawing a card from a pack
of playing cards. The probability is classified into two types:

Theoretical probability.

Experimental probability

Experiment: A trial or an operation conducted to produce an outcome is called an experiment.

Sample space: A sample space can be defined as the list of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.

Outcome: An outcome is a possible result of the random experiment.

Event: The total number of outcomes of a random experiment is called an event. i.e.An event is a possible
outcome of an experiment and forms a subset of the sample space.

Trial: When a random experiment is repeated many times each one is known as a trial.

Equally Likely Events: Events that have the same chances or probability of occurring are called equally likely
events. The outcome of one event is independent of the other. For example, when we toss a coin, there are
equal chances of getting a head or a tail.

Favorable Outcome: An event that has produced the desired result or expected event is called a favorable
outcome. For example, when we roll two dice, the possible/favorable outcomes of getting the sum of numbers
on the two dice as 4 are (1,3), (2,2), and (3,1).

Random Experiments : Random experiments can be defined as experiments that can be performed many times
under the same conditions and their outcome cannot be predicted with complete certainty. In order words, in a
random experiment, all the possible outcomes are known, however, its exact outcome cannot be precisely
predicted in advance. example is that of rolling a dice. There can be 6 possible outcomes {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
However, none of the outcomes can be exactly predicted.

Exhaustive Events: Exhaustive events are a set of events in a sample space such that one of them compulsorily
occurs while performing the experiment. Now, exhaustive events may or may not be equally likely events, i.e., it
is not necessary for events to have equal probability to be exhaustive. Let us consider an example of exhaustive
events. There are six possible outcomes when rolling a die which is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Now, if we roll a die, one of
these six outcomes will definitely occur. Hence, all these six outcomes are exhaustive events. Therefore, we can
say that the union of the exhaustive events gives the entire sample space. Exhaustive Events Meaning

If E1, E2, E3, …,En are n events of a sample space S, and if E1 ∪ E2 ∪ E 3 ∪ … … .∪ E n=¿ i=1 ¿ n Ei=S
then E1, E2, E3, …,En are called exhaustive events. In other words, events E1, E2, E3, …,En are called exhaustive
events if at least one of them necessarily occurs whenever the experiment is performed.

Mutually Exhaustive Events: two events are said to be mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur at the
same time or simultaneously. In other words, mutually exclusive events are called disjoint events. A student
wants to go to school. There are two paths; one that takes him to school and the other one that takes him
home. Which path will he choose? He will choose one of the two paths. Obviously, he can't choose both at the
same time. This is an example of a mutually exclusive events. Probability of Disjoint (or) Mutually Exclusive
Events = P ( A ∩∩ B) = 0.

If A and B are said to be mutually exclusive events then the probability of an event A occurring or the probability
of event B occurring is given as P (A U B) = P(A) + P(B)

If the events A and B are not mutually exclusive events, the probability of getting A or B is given as:

P (A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P (A∩∩ B). Mutually exclusive events, the following rules for probability can
be concluded.

Addition Rule: P (A + B) = 1 Subtraction Rule: P (A U B)’ = 0 Multiplication Rule: P (A ∩ B) = 0

For example, events in rolling of a die are “even face” and “odd face” which are known as mutually exclusive
events. But” odd-face” and “multiple of 3” are not mutually exclusive, because when “face-3” occurs both the
events “odd face” and “multiply of 3” are said to be occurred simultaneously.

Definition of Mutually Non-Exclusive Events:

Two events A and B are said to be mutually nonexclusive events if both the events A and B have at least one
common outcome between them. The events A and B cannot prevent the occurrence of one another so from
here we can say that the events A and B have something common in them.

For example, in the case of rolling a die the event of getting an ‘odd-face’ and the event of getting ‘less than 4’
are not mutually exclusive and they are also known as compatible event .The event of getting an ‘odd-face’ and
the event of getting ‘less than 4’ occur when we get either 1 or 3.

Let ‘X’ is denoted as event of getting an ‘odd-face’ and‘Y’ is denoted as event of getting ‘less than 4’

The events of getting an odd number (X) = {1, 3, 5}

The events of getting less than 4 (Y) = {1, 2, 3}

Between the events X and Y the common outcomes are 1 and 3

Therefore, the events X and Y are compatible events/mutually non-exclusive Formula to Find the Probability of
an Event

Mutually exhaustive events: Two or more events associated with a random experiment are mutually exhaustive

space S are exhaustive if A1 ⋃ A2 ⋃… An = S. All elementary events associated with a random experiment form a
if their union is the sample space, i.e., events A 1, A2 .. An are associated with a random experiment with sample

system of mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.

Important Points to Remember

1. If A and B are two events associated with a random experiment, then P(A ⋃ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ⋂ B)
2. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P(A ⋂B) = 0. ∴ P(A ⋃ B) = P(A) + P(B)

3. If A, B and C are three events associated with a random experiment, then

P(A ⋃ B ⋃ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A⋂ B) – P(B⋂C) – P(A⋂C) + P(A⋂B⋂C)

If A, B and C are mutually exclusive events, then

P(A⋂ B) = P(B⋂C) = P(A⋂C) = P(A⋂B⋂C) = 0

∴ P(A ⋃ B ⋃ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)

4. Let A and B be the two events associated with a random experiment, then

P( A ∩ B) = P(B) – P(A ⋂ B) is called the probability of occurrence of B only.

P(¿) ∪ ( A ∩ B))= P(A) + P(B) – 2P(A ⋂ is called the probability of occurrence of exactly one of two events A and
B.

5. For any two events A and B, the probability that exactly one of A, B occurs is given by

P(A) + P(B) – 2 P(A ⋃ B) = P(A ⋃ B) – P(A ⋂ B)

6. If there are 3 events, A, B and C, then

P(At least two of A, B, C occur) = P(A ⋂ B) + P(B ⋂ C) + P(C ⋂ A) – 2 P(A ⋂ B ⋂ C)

P(Exactly two of A, B, C occur) = P(A ⋂ B) + P(B ⋂ C) + P(C ⋂ A) – 3 P(A ⋂ B ⋂ C)

P(Exactly one of A, B, C occur)=P(A)+P(B)+P(C)+ P(A ⋂ B) – 2 P(A ⋂ B) – 2 P(B ⋂ C) – 2 P(A ⋂ C)+3 P(A ⋂ B ⋂

C)

7. If A and B are independent events associated with a random experiment, then

P(A/B) = P(A) and P(B/A) = P(B)

If A and B are two events associated with a random experiment, then

P(A⋂B) = P(A) P(B/A) , if P(A) ≠ 0 Or P(A⋂B) = P(B) P(A/B) , if P(B) ≠ 0.

8. If A and B are independent events, then P(A/B) = P(A) and P(B/A) = P(B)

∴ P(A⋂B) = P(A) P(B)

Addition Theorem Based on Mutually Non-Exclusive Events:

If X and Y are two mutually Non- Exclusive Events, then the probability of ‘X union Y’ is the difference between
the sum of the probability of X and the probability of Y and the probability of ‘X intersection Y’ and represented
as,

P(X ∪ Y) = P(X) + P(Y) - P(X ∩ Y)

Proof: The events X - XY, XY and Y - XY are pair-wise mutually exclusive events then,

X = (X - XY) + XY, Y = XY + (Y - XY)

Now, P(X) = P(X - XY) + P(XY) or, P(X - XY) = P(X) - P (XY)
Similarly, P(Y - XY) = P(Y) - P(XY)

Again, P(X + Y) = P(X - XY) + P(XY) + P(Y - XY) = P(X) - P(XY) + P(XY) + P(Y) - P(XY)

⇒ P(X + Y) = P(X) + P(Y) - P(XY) = P(X) + P(Y) - P(X) P(Y)

Therefore, P(X ∪ Y) = P(X) + P(Y) - P(X ∩ Y)

Probability

Q.1: A single card is drawn at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards.

Note: fractional probabilities have been reduced to lowest terms. Consider the ace as the highest card.

(i) The card is a diamond (ii) The card is a red king (iii) The card is a king or queen (iv) The card is either a red or
an ace (v) The card is not a king (vi) The card is a five or lower (vii) The card is a king (viii) The card is black

Solution: Total number of playing cards = 52

(i) The card is a diamond: Number of diamonds in a deck of 52 cards = 13

P(the card is a diamond) = Number of diamonds/Total number of playing cards = 13/52 = 1/4

(ii) The card is a red king: Number of red king in a deck of 52 cards = 2

P(the card is a red king) = Number of red kings/Total number of playing cards = 2/52 = 1/26

(iii) The card is a king or queen: Number of kings in a deck of 52 cards = 4

Number of queens in a deck of 52 cards = 4

Total number of king or queen in a deck of 52 cards = 4 + 4 = 8

P(the card is a king or queen) = Number of king or queen/Total number of playing card = 8/52 =
2/13

(iv) The card is either a red card or an ace: Total number of red card or an ace in a deck of 52 cards = 28

P(the card is either a red card or an ace) = Number of cards which is either a red card or an ace/Total number of
playing cards = 28/52 = 7/13

(v) The card is not a king: Number of kings in a deck of 52 cards = 4

P(the card is a king) = Number of kings/Total number of playing cards = 4/52 = 1/13

P(the card is not a king) = 1 - P(the card is a king) = 1 - 1/13 = (13 - 1)/13 = 12/13

(vi) The card is a five or lower: Number of cards is a five or lower = 16

P(the card is a five or lower) = Number of card is a five or lower/Total number of playing cards = 16/52 = 4/13

(vii) The card is a king: Number of kings in a deck of 52 cards = 4

P(the card is a king)= Number of kings/Total number of playing cards= 4/52= 1/13

(viii) The card is black: Number of black cards in a deck of 52 cards = 26

P(the card is black)= Number of black cards/Total number of playing cards= 26/52= ½
Q.2: Tickets numbered 1 to 20 are mixed up and then a ticket is drawn at random. What is the probability that
the ticket drawn has a number which is a multiple of 3 or 5?

Solution: Here, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, ...., 19, 20}. Let E = event of getting a multiple of 3 or 5 = {3, 6 , 9, 12, 15, 18, 5, 10,
20}. P(E) = n(E)/n(S) = 9/20.

Q.3: A bag contains 6 white and 4 black balls .2 balls are drawn at random. Find the probability that they are of
same colour.

Solution: Let S be the sample space Then n(S) = no of ways of drawing 2 balls out of (6+4=10) =10C2 = 45

Let E = event of getting both balls of same colour. Then, n(E) = no of ways (2 balls out of six) or (2 balls out of 4)
=6C2+4C2 = 6*5/2*1+4*3/2*1 = 15+6 = 21. Therefore, P(E) = n(E)/n(S) = 21/45 = 7/15

Q.4: Two cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability that either both are black
or both are queen?

Solution: We have n(s) =52C2 = 52*51/2*1= 1326.

Let A = event of getting both black cards. B = event of getting both queens

A∩B = event of getting queen of black cards

n(A) = 26C2 = 325, n(B)= 4C2 = 4*3/2*1= 6 and n(A∩B) = 2C2 = 1

P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 325/1326; P(B) = n(B)/n(S) = 6/1326 and P(A∩B) = n(A∩B)/n(S) = 1/1326

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B) = (325+6-1) / 1326 = 330/1326 = 55/221

Q.5: A bag contains 4 white, 5 red and 6 blue balls. Three balls are drawn at random from the bag. What is the
probability that all of them red.

Solution: Let S be the sample space. Then, n(S) = number of ways of drawing 3 balls out of 15

= 15C3 =15*14*13/3*2*1= 455.

Let E = event of getting all the 3 red balls. n(E) = 5C3 = 5*4/2*1 = 10.

=> P(E) = n(E)/n(S) = 10/455 = 2/91.

Q.6: In a lottery, there are 10 prizes and 25 blanks. A lottery is drawn at random. What is the probability of
getting a prize?

Solution: Total number of outcomes possible, n(S) = 10 + 25 = 35

Total number of prizes, n(E) = 10 => P(E)=n(E)/n(S)=10/35=2/7

Q.7 : Two dice are tossed. The probability that the total score is a prime number is:

Solution: Clearly, n(S) = (6 x 6) = 36. Let E = Event that the sum is a prime number.

Then E= { (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 4), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 3), (2, 5), (3, 2), (3, 4), (4, 1), (4,3),(5, 2), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 5) }

n(E) = 15. => P(E) = n(E)/n(S) = 15/36 = 5/12. Ans

Q: A bag contains 6 black and 8 white balls. One ball is drawn at random. What is the probability that the ball
drawn is white?

Q.8: Two cards are drawn together from a pack of 52 cards. The probability that one is a spade and one is a
heart.

Solution: Let S be the sample space. Then, n(S) = 52C2=(52 x 51)/(2 x 1) = 1326.

Let E = event of getting 1 spade and 1 heart.

n(E)= number of ways of choosing 1 spade out of 13 and 1 heart out of 13 = 13C1*13C1 = 169.

P(E) = n(E)/n(S) = 169/1326 = 13/102.

Q.9: What is the probability of getting a sum 9 from two throws of a dice?

Solution : In two throws of a die, n(S) = (6 x 6) = 36.

Let E = event of getting a sum ={(3, 6), (4, 5), (5, 4), (6, 3)}; => P(E) =n(E)/n(S)=4/36=1/9.

Q.10: Three unbiased coins are tossed. What is the probability of getting at least 2 heads?

Solution : Here S= {TTT, TTH, THT, HTT, THH, HTH, HHT, HHH}.

Let E = event of getting at least two heads = {THH, HTH, HHT, HHH}.

P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 4/8= 1/2. Ans.

Q.11: Three unbiased coins are tossed. What is the probability of getting at most two heads?

Solution: Here S = {TTT, TTH, THT, HTT, THH, HTH, HHT, HHH}

Let E = event of getting at most two heads. Then E = {TTT, TTH, THT, HTT, THH, HTH, HHT}.

P(E) =n(E)/n(S)=7/8. Ans.

Q.12: A basket contains 10 apples and 20 oranges out of which 3 apples and 5 oranges are defective. If we
choose two fruits at random, what is the probability that either both are oranges or both are non-defective?

Solution: n(s)=30C2= 435

Let A be the event of getting two oranges, B be the event of getting two non-defective fruits and (A∩B) be the
event of getting two non-defective oranges.

∴ P(A)=20C2/30C2=190/4356, P(B)=22C2/30C2 =231/435 and P(A∩B)=15C2/30C2=105/435

∴P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B) =
190 231 105 316
+ − = Ans.
435 435 435 435

Q.13: In a class, 30% of the students offered English, 20% offered Hindi and 10% offered both. If a student is
selected at random, what is the probability that he. has offered English or Hindi?
Q.14: In a class, there are 15 boys and 10 girls. Three students are selected at random. The probability that 1 girl
and 2 boys are selected.

Solution: Let , S - sample space E - event of selecting 1 girl and 2 boys.

Then, n(S) = Number ways of selecting 3 students out of 25 = 25C3 = 2300.

n(E) = 10C1×15C2= 1050. P(E) = n(E)/n(s) = 1050/2300 = 21/46

Q.15: A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. The probability of getting a queen of club or a

king of heart is: Here, n(S) = 52.

Solution: Let E = event of getting a queen of club or a king of heart. Then, n(E) = 2.

P(E) =n(E)/n(S)=2/52=1/26.

Q.16: Two dice are thrown together. What is the probability that the sum of the number on the two faces is
divided by 4 or 6.

Solution: Clearly, n(S) = 6 x 6 = 36

Let E be the event that the sum of the numbers on the two faces is divided by 4 or 6.

Then, E = {(1,3),(1,5),(2,2),(2,4),(2,6),(3,1),(3,3),(3,5),(4,2),(4,4),(5,1),(5,3),(6,2),(6,6)}

n(E) = 14 ; =>Hence, P(E) = n(E)/n(S) = 14/36 = 7/18

Q.17: I forgot the last digit of a 7-digit telephone number. If 1 randomly dial the final 3 digits after correctly
dialling the first four, then what is the chance of dialling the correct number?

Solution: It is given that last three digits are randomly dialled. then each of the digit can be selected out of 10
digits in 10 ways. Hence required probability =(110)31103 = 1/1000

Q.18: Four dice are thrown simultaneously. Find the probability that all of them show the same face.

Solution: The total number of elementary events associated to the random experiments of throwing four dice
simultaneously is n(s)= 6*6*6*6= 64

Let X be the event that all dice show the same face.

X = { (1,1,1,1,), (2,2,2,2), (3,3,3,3), (4,4,4,4), (5,5,5,5), (6,6,6,6)}. n(X) = 6

n(x ) 6 1 1
Hence required probability = n(X)/n(S)= = = = Ans.
n(s) 6 4 63 216

Q.19: Two brother X and Y appeared for an exam. The probability of selection of X is 1/7 and that of B is 2/9.
Find the probability that both of them are selected.
Solution: Let A be the event that X is selected and B is the event that Y is selected.

P(A) = 1/7, P(B) = 2/9.

Let C be the event that both are selected.

P(C) = P(A) × P(B) = (1/7) × (2/9) = 2/63 (as A and B are independent events)

Q.20: Find the probability of getting 53 Sunday in a leap year.

Solution: A leap year has 366 days. So, it has 52 weeks and 2 days. So, 52 Sundays are assured. For 53 Sundays,
one of the two remaining days must be a Sunday. For the remaining 2 days we can have (Sunday, Monday),
(Monday, Tuesday), (Tuesday, Wednesday), (Wednesday, Thursday), (Thursday, Friday), (Friday, Saturday),
(Saturday, Sunday). So, total number of possible outcomes = 7.

Number of favourable outcomes for the event E = 2, [namely, (Sunday, Monday), (Saturday, Sunday)]. So, by
definition: P(E) = 2727.

Q.21: A lot of 24 bulbs contains 25% defective bulbs. A bulb is drawn at random from the lot. It is found to be not
defective and it is not put back. Now, one bulb is drawn at random from the rest. What is the probability that this
bulb is not defective?

Solution: 25% of 24 = (25/100) × 24 = 6.

So, there are 6 defective bulbs and 18 bulbs are not defective.

After the first draw, the lot is left with 6 defective bulbs and 17 non-defective bulbs.

Q.22: toss a coin 150 times and we get head, say, 102 times. Here we will find the probability of getting: (i) a
head and, (ii) a tail

Solution: (i) Probability of getting a head: Let E1 be the event of getting a head.

Then, P(getting a head)= Number of times getting heads p(H)=102/150 = 0.68

(ii) Probability of getting a tail: Total number of times a coin is tossed = 150

Number of times we get head = 102

Therefore, number of times we get tail = 150 – 102 = 48

Now, let E2 be the event of getting a tail. Then, P(getting a tail)= Number of times getting tails P(T) = 48/150 =
0.32

Note: Remember, when a coin is tossed, then E1 and E2 are the only possible outcomes, and P(E1) + P(E2) = (0.68 +
0.32) = 1

Q.23: In a box, there are 8 red, 7 blue and 6 green balls. One ball is picked up randomly. What is the probability
that it is neither red nor green?

Total number of balls = (8 + 7 + 6) = 21.

Let E = event that the ball drawn is neither red nor green = event that the ball drawn is blue.

n(E) = 7. P(E) = n(E)/n(S) = 7/21 = 1/3.

Q.24: One card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability that the card drawn is a face
card (Jack, Queen and King only)?

Clearly, there are 52 cards, out of which there are 12 face cards.

P (getting a face card) = 12/52=3/13.

Q.25: From a pack of cards, four are drawn at random. What is the chance that there is one card of each suit ?
3. Consider an experiment of rolling a die.

When we roll a die then the upper face of the die are marked as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. These are the only six possible
outcomes.
Suppose we throw a die 180 times and suppose we get 5 for 72 times.

Let E = event of getting 5 (dots). Then, clearly, P(E) = 72/180= 0.40

4. Let us take the case of tossing two coins simultaneously.

When we toss two coins simultaneously then the possible of outcomes are: (two heads) or (one head and one
tail) or (two tails) i.e., in short (H, H) or (H, T) or (T, T) respectively.

Let us toss two coins randomly for 100 times.

Suppose the outcomes are: (1) Two heads: 35 times (2) One head: 30 times (3) 0 head: 35 times

Let E1 be the event of getting 2 heads. Then, P(E1) = 35/100 = 0.35

Let E2 be the event of getting 1 head. Then, P(E2) = 30/100 =0.30

Let E3 be the event of getting 0 head. Then, P(E3) = 35/100 = 0.35.

Note: Remember, when two coins are tossed randomly, then E 1, E2 and E3 are the only possible outcomes, and
P(E1) + P(E2) + P(E3) = (0.35 + 0.30 + 0.35) = 1

Complimentary Events

Compliment of an event is denoted by E’ or E or Ec. i.e., P(E) + P(not E) = 1

Therefore, P = 1 - P(not E) Or, P(not E) = 1 - P(E)

Problems on complementary event:

Q.1: A bag contains red and what balls. The probability of getting a red ball from the bag of balls is 1/6. What is
the probability of not getting a red ball?

Solution: The probability of getting a red ball from the bag of balls is 1/6.

Therefore, the probability of not getting a red ball. P(ball is not red) = 1 – 1/6 = 5/6

Therefore, the probability of not getting a red ball is 5/6.

Q.2: In a box, contains blue and green marbles. The probability of getting a green marble from the box of
marbles is 3/7. What is the probability of getting a blue marble?
Solution: Let E1 be the event of getting a green marble and E 2 be the event of getting a blue marble.
E2 is the probability of getting a blue marble which is also the same as the probability of not getting a green
marble, Since we know that the marble are either green or blue.

Therefore, P(not getting a blue marble) = P(E2) = 1 - P(E1) = 1 – 3/7 = 4/7.

Therefore, the probability of getting a blue marble is 4/7.

Q.3: In a cricket tournament Yuvraj Singh hits eight times ‘6’ out of thirty two balls. Calculate the probability that
he would not hit a 6?

Solution: Let P(A) = 32be the total number of events.

Favourable events that is Yuvraj Singh hits a boundary P (B) = 8,

Therefore, P(E) = P (Yuvraj Singh hits a ‘6’)= P(B)/P(A)= 8/32 = ¼.

Now, P (not E) = P (Yuvraj Singh did not hit a ‘6’) = 1 – 1/4 = 3/4.

Q.4: In a laptop shop there are 16 defective laptops out of 200 laptops. If one laptop is taken out at random
from this laptop shop, what is the probability that it is a non defective laptop?

Solution: The total number of laptops in laptop shop = 200,

The number of defective laptops = 16,

Let E1be the event of getting a defective laptop and E2 be the event of getting a non-defective laptop

P(A) = The probability of getting a defective laptop= 16/200= 0.08

Therefore, the probability of getting a non-defective laptop = 1 – P(A) = 1 – 0.08 = 0.92.

Q.5: The probability that it will rain in the evening 0.84. What is the probability that it will not rain in the
evening?

Solution: Let E be the event that it will rain in the evening. Then, (not E) is the event it will rain in the evening.
Then, P(E) = 0.84

Now, P(E) + P(not E) = 1; ⇒ P(not E) = 1 - P(E) = 1 - 0.84 = 0.16

Therefore, the probability that it will not rain in the evening = P(not E) = 0.16

Q.6: A bag contains 3 red balls and 4 black balls. A ball is drawn at random from the bag. Find the probability that
the ball drawn is (i) black (ii) not black.

Solution: (i) Total number of possible outcomes = 3 + 4 = 7.

Number of favourable outcomes for the event E = Number of black balls = 4.

P(E) =Number of Favourable Outcomes for the Event E = Number of Possible Outcomes =4/7.

(ii) The event of the ball being not black = E¯= 3

Hence, required probability = P(E¯) = 1 - P(E) = 1 – 4/7=3/7. Ans.

Q.7: If the probability of Serena Williams a particular tennis match is 0.86, what is the probability of her losing
the match?

Solution: Let E = the event of Serena Williams winning. From the question, P(E) = 0.86.

Clearly, E¯ = the event of Serena Williams losing the matches.

So, P(E¯) = 1 - P(E) = 1 - 0.86 = 0.14 = 14/100 =7/50. Ans.

Worked-out problems on probability of Mutually Non-Exclusive Events:

Q.1: What is the probability of getting a diamond or a queen from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards?

Solution: Let X be the event of ‘getting a diamond’ and, Y be the event of ‘getting a queen’

We know that, in a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards there are 13 diamonds and 4 queens.
13 1
Therefore, probability of getting a diamond from well-shuffled deck of 52 cards=P(X)= =
52 4

The probability of getting a queen from well-shuffled deck of 52 cards = P(Y) = 4/52 = 1/13

Similarly, the probability of getting a diamond queen from well-shuffled deck of 52 cards

= P(X ∩ Y) = 1/52

According to the definition of mutually non-exclusive we know that, drawing of a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards
‘getting a diamond’ and ‘getting a queen’ are known as mutually non-exclusive events. We have to find out
Probability of X union Y.

So according to the addition theorem for mutually non- exclusive events, we get;

P(X ∪ Y) = P(X) + P(Y) - P(X ∩ Y) =1/4 +1/13 -1/52 = 16/52 =4/13

Hence, probability of getting a diamond or a queen from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards = 4/13

Q.3: A lottery box contains 50 lottery tickets numbered 1 to 50. If a lottery ticket is drawn at random, what is the
probability that the number drawn is a multiple of 3 or 5?

Solution: Let X be the event of ‘getting a multiple of 3’ and, Y be the event of ‘getting a multiple of 5’.

The events of getting a multiple of 3 (X) = {3,6,9,12,15,18,21,24,27,30,33,36,39,42,45,48} =16

P(X) = 16/50 = 8/25

The events of getting a multiple of 5 (Y) = {5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50} = 10

P(X) = 10/50 = 1/5

Between the events X and Y the favourable outcomes are 15, 30 and 45.

Total number of common multiple of both the number 3 and 5 = 3

The probability of getting a ‘multiple of 3’ and a ‘multiple of 5’ from the numbered 1 to 50

P(X ∩ Y) = 3/50

Therefore, X and Y are non-mutually exclusive events. We have to find out Probability of X union Y. So according
to the addition theorem for mutually non- exclusive events, we get;

P(X ∪ Y) = P(X) + P(Y) - P(X ∩ Y) = 8/25 +1/5 -3/50 =23/50

Hence, probability of getting multiple of 3 or 5 = 23/50

Conditional Probability

Definition of Conditional Probability:

The probability of an event A is given then another event B occurred is called conditional probability of A given B.
It is denoted by P(A/B).

P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B)/P(B) or n(A ∩ B)/n(B)

Proof: Let an experiment E be repeated N times under identical conditions and A, B be two events connected
with E. Suppose, A occurs n(A) times and among these n(A) repetitions the event B also occurs (along with A)
n(AB) times.

Then n(AB)/n(A) is called conditional frequency ratio of B on the hypothesis that A has occurred and denoted by
f(B/A). That is f(B/A) = n(AB)/n(A). Let, limit n ∞ f(B/A) exists then this limit is P(B/A). That is conditional
probability of B on the hypothesis that A has occurred.

Now f(B/A) = n(AB)/n(A). = n(A∩B)/n(A)

Therefore, P(B/A) = limit n ∞ f(B/A) = n(AB)/n(A) = P(A∩B)/P(A) ------------ (i) Provided P(A) ≠ 0

Similarly if P(A/B) = limit n ∞ f(A/B) = n(AB)/n(B) = P(A∩B)/P(B) ------------ (ii) Provided P(B) ≠ 0

From (i) and (ii) we get the following multiplication rule;

P(AB) = P(A/B) ∙ P(B) = P(B/A) ∙ P(A) Provided P(A) ≠ 0 and P(B) ≠ 0

Q.1: Ten numbered cards are there from 1 to 15, and two cards a chosen at random such that the sum of the
numbers on both the cards is even. Find the probability that the chosen cards are odd-numbered.

Solution: Let, A ≡ event of selecting two odd-numbered cards

B ≡ event of selecting cards whose sum is even.

Then, n(B) = number of ways of choosing two numbers whose sum is even = 8C2 + 7C2.

n(A ∩ B) = number of ways of choosing odd-numbered cards such that their sum is even.= 8C2.

Now, P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B)/P(B) = n(A ∩ B)/n(B) = 8C2 / (8C2 + 7C2) = 4/7.

Q.2: Let E and F are events of a experiment such that P(E) = 3/10 P(F) = ½ and P(F|E) = ⅖. Find the value of (i) P(E
∩ F) (ii) P(E|F) (iii) P(E U F)
Solution: We know that P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B)/P(B) ⇒ P(A ∩ B) = P(A|B).P(B)

∴ P(E ∩ F) = P(F|E).P(E) =⅖ × 3/10 = 3/25

(ii) P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F)/P(F) = (3/25) ÷ (½) = 6/25

(iii) P(E U F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E ∩ F) = 3/10 + ½ – 3/25 = 17/25.

Some properties of conditional probability are:

Let A and B be the events of a sample space S of an experiment. Then P(S|B) = P(S|A) = 1

Let A and B be the events of a sample space S of an experiment and let E be an event such that P(E) ≠ 0.
Then, P[(A U B)|E] = P(A|E) + P(B|E) – P[(A ∩ B)|E]

P[(not A)|B] = 1 – P(A|B)

If A and B are disjoint events then P(A ∩ B) = 0

Q.3: The probability of a student passing in science is ⅘ and the of the student passing in both science and maths
is ½. What is the probability of that student passing in maths knowing that he passed in science?

Solution: Let A ≡ event of passing in science and B ≡ event of passing in maths

Given, P(B) = 4/5 and P(A ∩ B) = 1/2

probability of passing maths after passing in science = P(B|A) = P(A ∩ B)/P(A) =1/2 ÷ 4/5 =5/8

∴ the probability of passing in maths is 5/8.

Q.4: In a survey among few people, 60% read Hindi newspaper, 40% read English newspaper and 20% read both.
If a person is chosen at random and if he already reads English newspaper find the probability that he also reads
Hindi newspaper.

Solution: Let there be 100 people in the survey, then Number of people read Hindi newspaper = n(A) = 60

Number of people read English newspaper = n(B) = 40. Number of people read both = n(A ∩ B) = 20

Probability of the person reading Hindi newspaper when he already reads English newspaper is given by – P(A|
B) = n(A ∩ B)/n(B) = 20/40 = 1/2.

Q.5: A fair coin is tossed twice such that E: event of having both head and tail, and F: event of having atmost one
tail. Find P(E), P(F) and P(E|F)

Solution: The sample space S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}, E = {HT, TH}, F = {HH, HT, TH} and E ∩ F = {HT, TH}

P(E) = 2/4 = 1/2, P(F) = 3/4, P(E ∩ F) = 2/4 = 1/2, P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F)/P(F) = 1/2 ÷ 3/4 = 2/3.

Q.6: In a class, 40% of the students like Mathematics and 25% of students like Physics and 15% like both the
subjects. One student selects at random, find the probability that he likes Physics if it is known that he likes
Mathematics.
Solution: Let there be 100 students, then, Number of students like Mathematics = n(A) = 40

Number of students like Physics = n(B) = 25;

Number of students like both Mathematics and Physics = n(A ∩ B) = 15

Now, the probability that the student likes Physics if it is known that he likes Mathematics is given by – P(B|A) =
n(A ∩ B)/n(A) = 15/40 = 3/8.

Q.7: Two dice are rolled, if it is known that atleast one of the dice always shows 4, find the probability that the
numbers appeared on the dice have a sum 8.

Solution: Let, A: one of the outcomes is always 4 and B: sum of the outcomes is 8

Then, A = {(1, 4), (2, 4), (3, 4), (4, 4), (5, 4), (6, 4), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 5), (4, 6)}

B{(4, 4), (5, 3), (3, 5), (6, 2), (2, 6)} n(A) = 11, n(B) = 5, n(A ∩ B) = 1

P(B|A) = n(A ∩ B)/n(A) = 1/11.

Q.8: A bag contains 3 red and 7 black balls. Two balls are drawn at randon without replacement. If the second
ball is red, what is the probability that the first ball is also red?

Solution: Let A: event of selecting a red ball in first draw and B: event of selecting a red ball in second draw

P(A ∩ B) = P(selecting both red balls) = 3/10 × 2/9 = 1/15

P(B) = P(selecting a red ball in second draw)

= P(red ball and red ball or black ball and red ball)

= P(red ball and red ball) + P(black ball and red ball)

= 3/10 × 2/9 + 7/10 × 3/9 = 3/10

∴ P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B)/P(B) = 1/15 ÷ 3/10 = 2/9.

Q.9: If a family has two children, what is the conditional probability that both are girls if there is atleast one girl?

Solution: Let A=both being girls and B=At least one girl

n(A) = 1 , n(B) = 3 and n(A ∩ B) = 1 P(A|B) = n(A ∩ B)/n(B) = 1/3.

Q.10: A dice and a coin are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of obtaining a 6, given that a head came
up.

Solution: Let A: six coming with a heads and B: coin shows a head

A ={(6, H)), B = {(1, H), (2, H), (3, H), (4, H), (5, H), (6, H)}

n(A ∩ B) = 1 and n(B) = 6

∴ Probability of getting a six when there is a head is given by – P(A|B) = n(A ∩ B)/n(B) = 1/6.
Q.11: An instructor has a question bank with 300 easy T/F, 200 Difficult T/F, 500 easy MCQ, and 400 difficult
MCQ. If a question is selected randomly from the question bank, What is the probability that it is an easy
question given that it is an MCQ?

Solution: Let, P(easy)= (300+500)/1400 = 800/1400 = 4/7

P(MCQ)= (400+500)/1400 = 900/1400 = 9/14

P(easy ∩ MCQ)= (500)/1400 =5/14

P(easy/MCQ) = P(easy ∩ MCQ) = (5/14)/(9/14) =5/9

Q.12: In a shipment of 20 apples, 3 are rotten. 3 apples are randomly selected. What is the probability that all
three are rotten if the first and second are not replaced?

Solution: Probabilities: P(3 rotten) = (3/20 × 2/19 × 1/18)= 6/6840 = 1/1140

Q.13: John has to select two students from a class of 10 girls and 15 boys. What is the probability that both
students chosen are boys?

Solution: Total number of students = 10 + 15 =25

Probability of choosing the first boy, say P (Boy 1) = 15/25

P (Boy 2|Boy 1) = 14/24

Now,P (Boy 1 and Boy 2) = P (Boy 1) and P (Boy 2|Boy 1)= (15/25) × (14/24) = 7/20

What Are Independent Events?

The exact meaning of independent events is that the happening of one event does not affect the happening of
another event. The probability of occurrence of the two events is independent. This article explains
the Probability of independent events along with examples. Suppose two cards are drawn one after the other.
The outcome of the draws is independent if the first card is put back into the pack of cards before the second
draw. If the cards are not replaced back, then the events are not independent.

Consider one more example. Suppose a bag contains 5 white and 3 red marbles. Two marbles are drawn from
the bag one after another. Consider the events A = Drawing a white marble in the first draw. B = Drawing a red
marble in the second draw. If the marble drawn in the first draw is replaced back in the bag, then A and B are
independent events because P(B) remains the same whether we get a white marble or a red marble in the first
draw. If A and B are two independent events associated with a random experiment, then

P(A/B) = P(A) and P(B/A) = P(B) and vice versa.

If S is the sample space of the random experiment, A and B are any two events defined in this sample space. The
two events, A and B, are said to be independent, that is,

If P (A / B) = P (A / B’) = P (A) or P (B / A) = P (B / A’) = P (B) and P (AB) = P (A) * P (B)

P(A1⋂A2⋂A3….⋂An) = P(A1) P(A2)P(A3)….P(An).
Theorem : If A1, A2,…An are independent events associated with a random experiment, then

How are independent events and mutually exclusive events different?

Foundation for Independent Events Mutually Exclusive Events

Comparison

Definition The events are independent if the The events are mutually
occurrence of one doesn’t exclusive if they don’t
result in any change in the occur simultaneously.
occurrence of another event.

Impact The occurrence of one event doesn’t The occurrence of one event
impact the occurrence of the results in the non-
other. occurrence of the other
event.

Formula P ( AB) = 0 P (AB) = P (A) * P (B)

Venn Diagram No overlapping Overlapping is present

[Sets]

Example 1: Let E and F be two independent events. The probability that exactly one of them occurs is 11/25,
and the probability of none of them occurring is 2/25. What is the probability of occurrence of the event
T?

Solution: P (E ∩ F ) + P ( E ∩ F) = P (E) + P (F ) – 2 P (E∩F) = 11 / 25 …(i) [i.e., only E or only F]

Neither of them occurs = P( E ∩ F )= P( E )*P( F ¿=(1−P(E))(1−P(F))=¿ 2 / 25

= 1 − P (E) − P (F) + P (E) * P (F) = 2 / 25 ……….(ii)

From Equations (i) and (ii), P (E) + P (F) = 7 / 5 and P (E)* P (F) = 12 / 25

∴ P (E) * [7 / 5 − P (E)] = 12 / 25
 ⇒ (P (E))2 − [7 / 5] P (E) + 12 / 25 = 0

⇒ [P (E) − 3 / 5] [P (E) − 4 / 5] = 0

∴ P (E) = 3 / 5 or 4 / 5; ⇒ P (F) = 4 / 5 or 3 / 5

Example 2: Let E and F be two independent events. If the probability that both E and F happen is 1/12 and the

Solution: Both E and F happen ⇒ P (E ∩ F) = 1/12, and neither E nor F happens. ⇒ P( E ∩ F )= 1/2
probability that neither E nor F happens is 1/2. Then, find P (E) and P (F).

But for independent events, we have P (E ∩ F) = P (E) P (F) = 1 / 12 and

P( E )*P( F ¿={1 − P (E)} { 1 − P (F)}= 1 − P (E) − P (F) + P (E) P (F) = 1/2

⇒P (E) + P (F) = 1 − 1 / 2 + 1 / 12 = 7 / 12 …(ii)

On solving Equations (i) and (ii), we get

Either P (E) = 1 / 3 and P (F) = 1 / 4 or P (E) = 1 / 4 and P (F) = 1 / 3.

Example 3: Let A and B be two events such that P( A ∪ B) =1/6 , P(A∩ B) =14 and P( A ) = ¼.

Then events A and B are

A) Independent but not equally likely

B) Mutually exclusive and independent

C) Equally likely and mutually exclusive

D) Equally likely but not independent

Solution: P( A ∪ B) =1/6 , P(A∩ B) =1/4 and P( A ) = 1/4 => P(A) = 1- P( A ) = 1- 1/4 = 3/4

P(A∪ B) = 1 - P( A ∪ B) = 1- 1/6 = 5/6 = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩ B)

P(B) = 5/6 – 3/4 + 1/4= 1/3; Since P(A∩ B)= P(A).P(B). A and B are independent but not equally likely.

Example 4: The probability that at least one of the events A and B occurs is 0.6. If A and B occur simultaneously
with probability 0.2, then what is P( A ) + P( B) ?

Solution: Given : P (A ∪ B) = 0.6, P (A ∩ B) = 0.2

∴ P (A ∪ B) = P(A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)

0.6 = P (A) + P (B) − 0.2 ⇒ 0.6 + 0.2 = P (A) + P (B) ⇒ P (A) + P (B) = 0.8

Step 2: P( A ) + P( B) = (1– P (A))+(1– P (B)) = 2 - P (A) + P (B) = 2 – 0.8 = 1.2

Example 5: If E and F are independent events such that 0 < P (E) < 1 and 0 < P (F) < 1, then write the conditions
for them to be independent.
Solution: P (E ∩ F) = P (E) * P (F)

Now, P (E ∩ Fc) = P (E) − P (E ∩ F) = P (E) - P (E) P (F) = P (E) [1 − P (F)]= P (E) * P(F c) and

P (Ec ∩ Fc) = 1 − P (E ∪ F) = 1 − [P (E) + P (F) − P(E ∩ F) = [ 1 − P (E)] [1 − P (F)] = P (E c) P (Fc)Also, P (E / F) = P (E

and P (Ec/Fc) = P (Ec) ⇒ P (E / F) + P (Ec / Fc) = 1

Example 6: The odds against a certain event are 5:2, and the odds in favour of another event are 6:5. If both the
events are independent, then the probability that at least one of the events will happen is

Solution: Let A and B be two given events. The odds against A are 5:2, therefore, P (A) = 2 / 7.

The odds in favour of B are 6:5, therefore, P (B) = 6 / 11.

The required probability P(A∪ B ¿ = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A).P(B)

= 2/7 + 6/11 – 2/7*6/11 = 52/77

Example 7: Let A and B be two independent events. The probability that both A and B occur together is 1 / 6,
and the probability that neither of them occurs is 1 / 3. What is the probability of occurrence of A ?

Solution: Given P(A∩ B) = 1/6, P(AC ∩ BC) = 1/3.

Since P(A∪ B)C = P(AC ∩ BC) = 1/3 . => P(A∪ B ¿ = 1- P(A∪ B ¿C = 1- 1/3 = 2/3

P(A∪ B ¿ = P(A) +P(B) - P(A∩ B). => P(A) +P(B) = P(A∪ B ¿ + P(A∩ B) = 2/3 + 1/6 = 5/6……..(i)

We have A and B be two independent events i. e. P(A∩ B) = P(A)P(B) = 1/6

 (P(A) – P(B))2 = (P(A) +P(B))2 - 4 P(A)P(B) = 25/36 – 4*1/6 = 1/36

 P(A) – P(B) = ±1/6 ………(ii)

Solving (i) and (ii) we get P(A) = 1/2 or 1/3 and P(B)=

Multiplication Theorem of Probability ( Probability for dependent events)

the probability of occurrence of the other. Dependent events are those which depend upon what happened
before. These events are affected by the outcomes that had already occurred previously, i.e., two or more events
that depend on one another are known as dependent events.

Important Result

When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of occurrence of A and B is:

P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B|A)

In an experiment suppose, X and Y are any two events then probabilities of both X and Y is given by

P(X ∩ Y) = P(X) ∙ P(Y/X) ------------ (i) OR

P(X ∩ Y) = P(Y) ∙ P(X/Y) ------------ (ii)

If X and Y are independent, then P (X/Y) = P(X) and P(Y/X) = P(Y)

Now substituting P(Y/X) = P(Y) in “equation (i)” , we ge P(X ∩ Y) = P(X) ∙ P(Y)

Similarly, substituting P(X/Y) = P(X) in “equation (ii)”, we ge P(X ∩ Y) = P(Y) ∙ P(X) = P(X) ∙ P(Y)

If X and Y are independent, then probabilities of both X and Y is given by

P(X ∩ Y) = P(X) ∙ P(Y).

Q.14: Shareen has to select two students from a class of 23 girls and 25 boys. What is the probability that both
students chosen are boys?

Solution: Total number of students = 23 + 25 = 48

The probability of choosing the first boy, say Boy 1 = 25/48

The probability of choosing the second boy, say Boy 2 = 24/47

Now, P(Boy 1 and Boy 2) = P(Boy 1) and P(Boy 2|Boy 1) = (25/48) × (24/47) = = 600/2256

Q.15: In a survey, it is found that 10 out of 13 people walk to the office. 3 persons are selected randomly. What
is the probability that all three walk to the office?

Solution: The probability that all three walk to the office = (3/13) × (2/12) × (1/11) = 6/1716.

Q.16: A bag contains 6 red, 5 blue, and 4 yellow balls. 2 balls are drawn, but the first ball is drawn without
replacement. Find the following:

a] P (red, then blue) b] P (blue, then blue)

Solution: a] There are six red balls and a total of fifteen balls. P (red) = 6 / 15

The probability of the second draw affected the first. Number of blue balls = 5

Total number of balls left = 14.

P (drawing blue after red) = 5 / 14

P(drawing red, then blue) = P (drawing red) * P (blue after red) =615×514=17

1/ 7 will be the probability value of drawing a red ball followed by a blue ball.

b] Number of blue balls = 5

Total number of balls left = 15

The probability of drawing a blue ball = 5/15

The probability of the second draw affected the first.

Now, there are 4 blue balls left and a total of 14 balls left.

P (drawing a blue ball after a blue ball) = 4/14

P (blue, then blue) = P (drawing blue ball) * (drawing a blue ball after a blue ball) =515×414=221

Hence, the probability of drawing a red ball followed by a blue ball is 2/21.
Q.17: In a pack of 52 cards, a card is drawn at random without replacement. Find the probability of drawing a
queen followed by a jack.

Solution: P (drawing a queen in the first place) = 4/52

P (drawing Jack in the second place given that Queen is in the first place) = 4/51

P (drawing a queen followed by a jack) =452×451=162652=4663

Q.18: A wallet contains 4 bills of 5 dollars, 5 bills of 10 dollars and 3 bills of 20 dollars. 2 bills are chosen randomly
without replacement. Find P (drawing a 5 dollar bill followed by a 5 dollar bill).

Solution: Number of 5 dollar bills = 4 Total number of bills = 12

P (drawing a 5 dollar bill) = 4 / 12

The probability of the second draw affecting the first.

Number of 5 dollar bills left = 3

A total of 11 bills are left.

P (drawing a 5 dollar bill after a 5 dollar bill) = 3/11

P (drawing a 5 dollar bill followed by a 5 dollar bill) = P (drawing a 5 dollar bill) * P (drawing a 5 dollar bill after a 5
dollar bill) =412×311=111

Hence, P (drawing a 5 dollar bill followed by a 5 dollar bill) = 1/11.

Q.19: A bag contains 4 red, 3 pink and 6 green balls. Two balls are drawn, but the first ball drawn is not replaced.
a) Find P(red, then pink) b) Find P(pink, then pink)

Solution: a) Number of red balls = 4 Total number of balls = 13

P(red) = 4/13.

The result of the first draw will affect the probability of the second draw.

There are 3 pink balls.

Number of balls left = 12

P(pink after red) = 3/12 = ¼

P(red, then pink) = P(red) · P(pink after red) = (4/13) × (1/4) = 1/13

Hence, the probability of drawing a red ball and then a pink ball is 1/13.

b) number of pink balls = 3 Total number of balls = 13

P(pink) = 3/13

The result of the first draw will affect the probability of the second draw.

Number of pink balls left = 2

Total number of balls left = 12

There are a total of 12 balls left.

P(pink after pink) = 2/12 = 1/6

P(pink, then pink) = P(pink) · P(pink after pink) = (3/13) × (1/6) = 3/78 = 1/26

Hence, the probability of drawing a pink ball and then a pink ball is 1/26.

Q.20: A mobile manufactured by a company consists of two types of mobile, red colour mobile phone and black
colour mobile phone. In the process of manufacturing of red colour mobile phone, 91 out of 100 are non-
defective. And in the manufacturing process of black colour mobile phone, 95 out of 100 are non-defective.
Calculate the probability that the assembled type is non defective.

Solution: Let X denote the event that red colour mobile phone is non defective and

Y denotes the event that black colour mobile phone is non defective.

Probability of non-defective red colour mobile phone P(X) = 91/100

Probability of non-defective red colour mobile phone P(Y) = 95/100

Here X and Y are independent. P(assembled type is non defective) = P(X ∩ Y) = P(X) ∙ P(Y)

= 91/100 ∙ 95/100 = 8645/10000 = 0.8645

Therefore, P(assembled type is non defective) = 0.8645 Ans.

Q.21: In class X, 20% of the students are boys and 80% of them are girls. The probability that boys passed in
mathematics is 0.5 and the probability that girls passed in mathematics is 0.10. One student is selected at
random. What is the probability that the selected student is passed in mathematics?

Solution: Let X denote the event that boy is selected, Y denote the event that girl is selected and Z denotes the
event that the selected student is passed in mathematics.

P(X) = P(boy is selected) = 20/100 = 1/5

P(Y) = P(girl is selected) = 80/100 = 4/5

P(Z/X) = P(selected boy passed in mathematics) = 0.5

P(Z/Y) = P(selected girl passed in mathematics) = 0.10

P(selected student is passed in mathematics) = P(boy is selected and he is passed in mathematics or girl is
selected and she is passed in mathematics)

So, required probability is P(X ∩ Z) + P(Y ∩ Z) = P(X) ∙ P(Z/X) + P(Y) ∙ P(Z/Y)

= (1/5) × 0.5 + (4/5) × 0.1= 0.10 + 0.08= 0.18

Therefore, P(selected student is passed in mathematics) = 0.18

Q.22: In a college 25% students in mathematics, 15% in physics and 10% in mathematics and physics both are
failed, A students is selected at random:

(i) If he is failed in physics, then find the chance of his failure in mathematics.
(ii) If he is failed in mathematics, then find the chance of his failure in physics.

(iii) find the chance of his failure in mathematics or physics.

Solution: Let E1 and E2 be the event of failure in mathematics and physics respectively. Let the total number of
students appearing in examination be 100.

i.e. n(s) =100, n(E1) =25, n(E2) = 15 and n(E1 and E2 ) = 10.

n(E 1) 25 1 n(E 2) 15 3
=> P(E1) = = = P(E2) = = =
n(s) 100 4 n(s) 100 20

n(E1 ∧E2) 10 1
P(E1 and E2) = P(E1 ∩E2) = = =
n(s) 100 10

1
P ( E1 ∩ E2) 10 2
The chance of failure in mathematics while he is failed in physics is given by: P(E1 ⳆE2) = = =
P( E 2) 3 3
20

1
P ( E1 ∩ E2) 10 2
The chance of failure in physics while he is failed in mathematicsis given by: P(E 2 ⳆE1) = = =
P( E 1) 1 5
4

The chance of his failure in mathematics or physics

1 3 1 3
P(E 1 ∪ E2 ) = P(E1) + P(E2) - P(E 1 ∩ E2 ) = + - =
4 20 10 10

Q.23: One beg contains 4 white, 6 red, and 15 black balls and a second beg contains 11 white, 5 red, and 9 black
balls. One- one ball is drawn from each beg. Find the probability: (i) both balls are white, (ii) both balls are red,
(iii) both balls are black. (iv) both balls are same colour.

Odds and Probability

A brief explanation and the differences between odds and probability.

Definition of Odds: Odds in probability of a particular event, means the ratio between the number of favourable
outcomes to the number of unfavourable outcomes.

Odds in Favour and odds in against – probability of Event

Number of favourable outcomes

=
Number of favourable outcomes+ Number of unfavourable outcomes

Odds in favour: Odds in Favour of a particular event are given by Number of favourable outcomes to Number of
unfavourable outcomes.

Number of favourable outcomes

P(A) =
Number of unfavourable outcomes

For example; Find the odds in favour of throwing a die to get “3 dots”.

Solution: Total number of outcomes in throwing a die = 6

Number of favourable outcomes = 1

Number of unfavourable outcomes = (6 - 1) = 5

Therefore, odds in favour of throwing a die to get “3 dots” is 1 : 5 or 1/5

Odds against: Odds against is given by Number of unfavourable outcomes to number of favorable outcomes.

Number of unfavourable outcomes

P(B) =
Number of favourable outcomes

For example; Find the odds in against of throwing a die to get “3 dots”.

Solution: Total number of outcomes in throwing a die = 6

Number of favourable outcomes = 1

Number of unfavourable outcomes = (6 - 1) = 5

Therefore, odds in against of throwing a die to get “3 dots” is 5 : 1 or 5/1

Number of favourable outcomes

Then, Probability of the event=
Number of favourable outcomes+ Number of unfavourable outcomes

Worked-out Problems on Odds and Probability:

Q.1: If odds in favour of X solving a problem are 4 to 3 and odds against Y solving the same problem are 2 to 6.

Find probability for: (i) X solving the problem. (ii) Y solving the problem

Solution: Probability of the event

Number of favourable outcomes

=
Number of favourable outcomes+ Number of unfavourable outcomes

Given odds in favour of X solving a problem are 4 to 3.

Number of favourable outcomes = 4 and Number of unfavourable outcomes = 3

(i) X solving the problem P(X) = P(solving the problem) = 4/(4 + 3) = 4/7

Given odds against Y solving the problem are 2 to 6

Number of favourable outcomes = 6 and Number of unfavourable outcomes = 2

(ii) Y solving the problem P(Y) = P(solving the problem) = 6/(2 + 6) = 6/8 = 3/4

Worked-out Examples on Probability and playing cards

Q.2: The king, queen and jack of clubs are removed from a deck of 52 playing cards and then shuffled. A card is
drawn from the remaining cards. Find the probability of getting:

(i) a heart (ii) a queen (iii) a club (iv) ‘9’ of red colour

Solution: Total number of card in a deck = 52

Card removed king, queen and jack of clubs

Therefore, remaining cards = 52 - 3=49

Therefore, number of favourable outcomes = 49

(i) A heart: Number of hearts in a deck of 52 cards= 13

Therefore, the probability of getting ‘a heart’

Number of favourable outcomes

P(Heart) = = 13/49
Total number of possible outcomes

(ii) A queen: Number of queen = 3 [Since club’s queen is already removed]

Therefore, the probability of getting ‘a queen

Number of favourable outcomes

P(queen) = = 3/49
Total number of possible outcomes

(iii) A club : Number of clubs in a deck in a deck of 52 cards = 13

According to the question, the king, queen and jack of clubs are removed from a deck of 52 playing cards In this
case, total number of clubs = 13 - 3 = 10

Therefore, the probability of getting ‘a club’

Number of favourable outcomes

P(Club)= = 10/49
Total number of possible outcomes

(iv) ‘9’ of red colour : Cards of hearts and diamonds are red cards

The card 9 in each suit, hearts and diamonds = 1

Therefore, total number of ‘9’ of red colour = 2

Therefore, the probability of getting ‘9’ of red colour

Number of favourable outcomes

P (9 red colour) = = 2/49
Total number of possible outcomes

Q.3: All kings, jacks, diamonds have been removed from a pack of 52 playing cards and the remaining cards are
well shuffled. A card is drawn from the remaining pack. Find the probability that the card drawn is:

(i) a red queen (ii) a face card (iii) a black card (iv) a heart

Solution: Number of kings in a deck 52 cards = 4

Number of jacks in a deck 52 cards = 4

Number of diamonds in a deck 52 cards = 13

Total number of cards removed = (4 kings + 4 jacks + 11 diamonds) = 19 cards

[Excluding the diamond king and jack there are 11 diamonds]

Total number of cards after removing all kings, jacks, diamonds = 52 - 19 = 33

(i) a red queen: Queen of heart and queen of diamond are two red queens
Queen of diamond is already removed. So, there is 1 red queen out of 33 cards

Therefore, the probability of getting ‘a red queen’

Number of favourable outcomes

P(Red queen) = = 1/33
Total number of possible outcomes

(ii) a face card : Number of face cards after removing all kings, jacks, diamonds = 3

Therefore, the probability of getting ‘a face card’

Number of favourable outcomes

P(face card) = = 3/33 = 1/11
Total number of possible outcomes

(iii) a black card: Cards of spades and clubs are black cards.

Number of spades = 13 - 2 = 11, since king and jack are removed

Number of clubs = 13 - 2 = 11, since king and jack are removed

Therefore, in this case, total number of black cards = 11 + 11 = 22

Therefore, the probability of getting ‘a black card’

Number of favourable outcomes

P(black card) = = 22/33 = 2/3
Total number of possible outcomes

(iv) a heart: Number of hearts = 13

Therefore, in this case, total number of hearts = 13 - 2 = 11, since king and jack are removed

Therefore, the probability of getting ‘a heart card’

Number of favourable outcomes

P(Heart card) = = 11/33 = 1/3
Total number of possible outcomes

Q.4: A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that the card drawn is:

(i) a red face card (ii) neither a club nor a spade (iii) neither an ace nor a king of red color

(iv) neither a red card nor a queen (v) neither a red card nor a black king.

Solution: Total number of card in a pack of well-shuffled cards = 52

(i) a red face card : Cards of hearts and diamonds are red cards.

Number of face card in hearts = 3

Number of face card in diamonds = 3

Total number of red face card out of 52 cards = 3 + 3 = 6

Therefore, the probability of getting ‘a red face card’

Number of favourable outcomes

P(Red face card) = = 6/52 = 3/26
Total number of possible outcomes

(ii) neither a club nor a spade : Number of clubs = 13

Number of spades = 13

Number of club and spade = 13 + 13 = 26

Number of card which is neither a club nor a spade = 52 - 26 = 26

Therefore, the probability of getting ‘neither a club nor a spade

P(neither a club nor a spade) =26/52 = ½

Q.5: A problem is given to three students whose chances of solving it are 1/2, 1/3 and 1/4 respectively. What is
the probability that the problem will be solved?

Sol: Let A, B, C be the respective events of solving the problem and A , B and C be the respective events of not
solving the problem. Then A, B, C are independent event

∴ A , B and C are independent events

Now, P(A) = 1/2 , P(B) = 1/3 and P(C)=1/4 P( A )=1/2, P( B )=2/3, P(C )= 3/4

∴∴ P(none solves the problem) = P(not A) and (not B) and (not C) = P( A ∩ B ∩C )

= P( A )P( B )P(C ) [∵ A , B and C are Independent] = 1/2*2/3*3/4=1/4

P(the problem will be solved) = 1 - P(none solves the problem) = 1−1/4= 3/4

Q.6: A man and his wife appear in an interview for two vacancies in the same post. The probability of husband's
selection is (1/7) and the probability of wife's selection is (1/5). What is the probability that only one of them is
selected ?

Bayes Theorem - Statement

The statement of Bayes Theorem is as follows: Let E1,E2,E3,...,En be a set of events associated with a sample
space S, where all events E1,E2,E3,...,En have non-zero probability of occurrence and they form a partition of S.
Let A be any event which occurs with E1orE2orE3...orEn. then according to Bayes Theorem,

P ( A Ⳇ Ei ) P(E i)
P(Ei/A) = n
i=1,2, 3,…….n
∑ P(E k ) P ¿ ¿ ¿
k=1
Here Ei∩ Ej = φ, where i ≠ j. (i.e) They are mutually exhaustive events. The union of all the events of the
partition, should give the sample space. 0 ≤ P(Ei) ≤ 1

Proof : To prove the Bayes Theorem, we will use the total probability and conditional probability formulas.

The total probability of an event A is calculated when not enough data is known about event A, then we use
other events related to event A to determine its probability.

Conditional probability is the probability of event A given that other related events have already occurred.

(Ei), be is a partition of the sample space S. Let A be an event that occurred. Let us express A in terms of (Ei).

A = A ∩ S = A ∩ (E1,E2,E3,...,En) A = (A ∩E1) ∪ (A ∩E2) ∪ (A ∩E3)....∪ ( A ∩En)

P(A) = P[(A ∩E1) ∪ (A ∩E2) ∪ (A ∩E3)....∪ ( A ∩En)]

We know that when A and B are disjoint sets, then P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)

Thus here, P(A) = P(A ∩E1) +P(A ∩E2)+ P(A ∩E3)+.....+P(A ∩En)

According to the multiplication theorem of a dependent events, we have

n
P(A) = P(E1). P(A|E1) + P(E2). P(A|E2) + P(E3). P(A|E3)+......+P(En). P(A|En) = ∑ P (Ek )P ¿ ¿ --- (1)
k =1

Recalling the conditional probability, we get

P(Ei|A) =P(Ei∩A) P(A), i=1,2, 3, . . …,n ---(2)

Using the formula for conditional probability of P(A|Ei), we have

P(Ei∩A) =P(A|Ei)P(Ei) ………….--- (3)

Substituting equations (1) and (3) in equation (2), we get

P ( A Ⳇ Ei ) P(E i)
P(Ei/A) = n
i=1,2,3,...,n
∑ P(E k ) P ¿ ¿ ¿
k=1

Hence, Bayes rule is proved.

difference Between Conditional Probability and Bayes Rule

Conditional Probability Bayes Theorem

Conditional Probability is the probability Bayes theorem is derived using the definition
of an event A that is based on the of conditional probability. The Bayes theorem
occurrence of another event B. formula includes two conditional probabilities.

Formula: P(A|B)=P(A∩B)/P(B) Formula: P(A|B)=P(B|A)P(A)/P(B)

 Conditional Probability Bayes Theorem

This formula gives the probability of A This formula gives the probability of A given B
given B. when the probability of B given A is known.

Example 1: Amy has two bags. Bag I has 7 red and 4 blue balls and bag II has 5 red and 9 blue balls. Amy draws a
ball at random and it turns out to be red. Determine the probability that the ball was from the bag I.

Solution: Assume A to be the event of drawing a red ball. We know that the probability of choosing a bag for
drawing a ball is 1/2, that is, P(X) = P(Y) = 1/2

Let X and Y be the events that the ball is from the bag I and bag II, respectively. Since there are 7 red balls out of
a total of 11 balls in the bag I, therefore, P(drawing a red ball from the bag I) = P(A|X) = 7/11

Similarly, P(drawing a red ball from bag II) = P(A|Y) = 5/14

We need to determine the value of P(the ball drawn is from the bag I given that it is a red ball), that is, P(X|A). To
determine this we will use Bayes Theorem. Using Bayes theorem, we have the following:

P (A / X ) . P (X )
P(X|A)= = [((7/11)(1/2))/(7/11)(1/2)+(5/14)(1/2)] = 0.64
P ( A / X ) . P ( X )+ P ( A /Y ) . P(Y )

Answer: ∴ The probability that the ball is drawn is from bag I is 0.64

Example 2: Assume that the chances of a person having a skin disease are 40%. Assuming that skin creams and
drinking enough water reduces the risk of skin disease by 30% and prescription of a certain drug reduces its
chance by 20%. At a time, a patient can choose any one of the two options with equal probabilities. It is given
that after picking one of the options, the patient selected at random has the skin disease. Find the probability
that the patient picked the option of skin screams and drinking enough water using the Bayes theorem.

Solution: Assume E1: The patient uses skin creams and drinks enough water; E 2: The patient uses the drug; A:
The selected patient has the skin disease P(E1) = P(E2) = 1/2

Using the probabilities known to us, we have

P(A| E1) = 0.4 × (1-0.3) = 0.28 , P(A| E2) = 0.4 × (1-0.2) = 0.32

Using Bayes rule, the probability that the selected patient uses skin creams and drinks enough water is given by,

P(E1|A)=P(A| E1)P(E1)/(P(A| E1)P(E1)+P(A| E2)P(E2)

= (0.28 × 0.5)/(0.28 × 0.5 + 0.32 × 0.5) = 0.14/(0.14 + 0.16)= 0.47

Answer: ∴ The probability that the patient picked the first option is 0.47

Example 3: A man is known to speak the truth 3/4 times. He draws a card and reports it is king. Find the
probability that it is actually a king.
Solution: Let E be the event that the man reports that king is drawn from the pack of cards.

A be the event that the king is drawn. B be the event that the king is not drawn. Then we have

P(A) = probability that king is drawn = 1/4 , P(B) = probability that king is drawn = 3/4

P(E/A) = Probability that the man says the truth that king is drawn when actually king is drawn = P(truth) = 3/4

P(E/B)= Probability that the man lies that king is drawn when actually king is drawn = P(lie) = 1/4

Then according to Bayes formula, the probability that it is actually a king

P(A/E) =P(A)P(E|A)/(P(A)P(E|A)+P(B)P(E|B) = [1/4 × 3/4] ÷[(1/4 × 3/4) + (1/4 × 3/4)]

= 3/16 ÷6/16 =1/2 = 0.5

Answer: ∴ The probability that the drawn card is actually a king = 0.5

Ex 4: One of two boxes contains 4 red balls and 2 green balls and the second box contains 4 green and two red
balls. By design, the probabilities of selecting box 1 or box 2 at random are 1/3 for box 1 and 2/3 for box 2.

A box is selected at random and a ball is selected at random from it.

a) Given that the ball selected is red, what is the probability it was selected from the first box?

b) Given that the ball selected is red, what is the probability it was selected from the second box?

Solution: Let us call the first box B1 and the second box B2

Let event E1 be "select box 1" and event E2 "select box 2".

Let event R be "select a red ball". All the above information is included in the diagram below.

The probabilities of selecting one of the two boxes would are given (above) by P(E1)=1/3 and P(E2)=2/3
The conditional probability that a selected ball is red given that it is selected from box 1 is given by
P(R|E1)=4/6=2/3 ,

4 balls out of 6 are red in box 1 The conditional probability that a selected ball is red given that it is selected from

box 2 is given by P(R|E2)=2/6=1/3 , 2 balls out of 6 are red in box 2

a) The question is to find the conditional probability that the ball is selected from box 1 given that it is red, is
given by Bayes' theorem.

P( R∨E 1) P(E 1) 2/3∗1/3

P(E1|R)= = =1/2
P ( R∨E 1)P (E 1)+ P(R∨E 2) P(E 2) 2/3∗1 /3+1 /3∗2/3

b) The question is to find the conditional probability that the ball is selected from box 2 given that it is red, is
given by Bayes' theorem.
 P( R∨E 2) P(E 2) 2/3∗1/3
P(E2|R)= = =1/2
P ( R∨E 1)P (E 1)+ P(R∨E 2) P(E 2) 2/3∗1 /3+1 /3∗2/3

Ex. 5: 1% of a population have a certain disease and the remaining 99% are free from this disease. A test is used
to detect this disease. This test is positive in 95% of the people with the disease and is also (falsely) positive in
2% of the people free from the disease. If a person, selected at random from this population, has tested positive,
what is the probability that she/he has the disease?

Solution : Let D be the event "have the disease" and FD be the event "free from the disease" Let the event TP be
the event that the "test is positive". A diagram with all the above information is shown below.

The probability that a person has the disease given that it has tested positive is given by Bayes' theorem:
P(D|TP)=P(TP|D)P(D)P(TP|D)P(D)+P(TP|ND)P(ND) =95%1%95%1%+2%99%=0.32=95%1%95%1%+2%99%=0.32

Ex. 6: Three factories produce light bulbs to supply the market. Factory A produces 20%, 50% of the tools are
produced in factories B and 30% in factory C. 2% of the bulbs produced in factory A, 1% of the bulbs produced in
factory B and 3% of the bulbs produced in factory C are defective. A bulb is selected at random in the market and
found to be defective. what is the probability that this bulb was produced by factory B?

Solution: Let P(A)=20%=1/5, P(B)=50% =1/2 and P(C)= 30% = 3/10 Represent the probabilities that a bulb
selected at random is from factory A, B and C respectively. Let P(D)be the probability that a defective bulb is
selected.
Let P(D|A)=2% =1/50, P(D|B)=1% =1/100 and P(D|C)=3%= 3/100 represent the conditional probabilities that
a bulb is defective given that it is selected from factory A, B and C respectively.We now calculate that the
conditional probability that the bulb was produced by factory B given that it is defective written as P(B|D) and
given by Bayes' theorem.

P(B|D)=P(D|B)P(B)/[P(D|A)P(A)+P(D|B)P(B)+P(D|C)P(C)]

1
∗1
100
2
= = 0.2777
1 1 3
∗1 ∗1 ∗3
100 50 100
+ +
2 5 10

MULTINOMIAL THEOREM

Theorem. If a die has f faces marked with 1, 2...f. the probability of throwing a total p with n dice is given by the
coefficient of X n in the expansion (x 1+ x2 + x 3 +… … … ..+ x f )n divided by f n.
Proof. A dice has n faces and, therefore, any one of the f faces may be exposed on any one of the n dice. Hence
the total number of ways in which the n dice may fall is f"

n(S) = f n

Let A be the event of throwing a total p with n dice.

n(A) = total number of ways favourable to the event A

= total number of ways selecting n numbers from 1, 2, 3,..., f so as to make pas their sum

= coefficient of x p in the expansion of ( x 1+ x2 + x 3 +… … … ..+ x f )n

The required probability P(A) is given by P(A) = (n(A))/(n(S))

f n
(1−x ) p n
p 1 2 3
Coeff . of x ∈(x + x + x +… … …..+ x ) Coeff . of x ∈ x
f n

P(A) = n = (1−x)n (by G.P.)

f
fn
f n
(1−x )
Coeff . of x p−n ∈ n
p−n f n
Coeff . of x ∈(1−x ) (1−x )
−n
= (1−x) =
n fn
f

EX. 1: Find the chance of throughingn10 exactly in one through with three dice.

Solution. Total way of throwing 3 dice = 63

Favourable ways of throwing exactly 10 = Coeff . of x 10∈(x 1 + x 2+ x3 + … … …..+ x 6 )3

6 3
10 3 (1−x ) −3
= Coeff . of x ∈ x 3 = Coeff . of x
10−3 6 3
∈(1−x ) (1−x )
(1−x )

= Coeff . of x 7∈(1−3 x 6 +3 x 12−…)(1+3 x +6 x 2+ 10 x 3 +15 x 4 +…)

= 36 -9 = 27

The required probability = 27/ 63 = 1/8. Ans.

EX.2: Determine the probability of throwing more than 8 with 3 perfectly symmetrical dice.

Solution: Total way of throwing 3 dice = 63

We shall find the probability of getting sum upto 8. but from 3 dice a sum a less than 3 can not be obtained.

∴ the number of ways obtaining a sum form 3 to 8 = sum of the coeffs. Of x 3 , x 4 , x 5 , x 6 , x 7 , x 8

1 2 3 6 3
¿(x + x + x + … … … ..+ x )

= sum of the coeffs. Of x 0 , x 1 , x 2 , x 3 , x 4 , x 5 ∈(1+ x 1 + x 2+ … … …..+ x 5 )3

6 3
0 1 2 3 4 5 (1−x )
= sum of the coeffs. Of x , x , x , x , x , x ∈
(1−x)3
 = sum of the coeffs. Of x 0 , x 1 , x 2 , x 3 , x 4 , x 5 ∈(1−x 6 )3 (1−x )−3

= sum of the coeffs. Of x 0 , x 1 , x 2 , x 3 , x 4 , x 5 ∈(1−3 x 6 +3 x 12−…)(1+3 x+ 6 x 2 +10 x 3+ 15 x 4 + …)

= 1+3+6+10+15+21= 56

Example 3: A person throws two dice, one the common cube, and the other regular tetrahedron, the number in the
lowest face being taken in the case of tetrahedron. What is the chance that the sum of the numbers thrown is not
less than 5.

Solution: We know that a common cube and a regular tetrahedron has respectively 6 and 4 faces. Therefore, the
total ways of throwing the cube and tetrahedron is 6 * 4= 24.

Here in the present case the minimum sum obtained is 2 Therefore, number of ways of getting a sum of 2, 3 and 4

= the sum of coeffs of x 3 , x 4 , x 5 in (x 1+ x2 + x 3 +… … … ..+ x 6 )1 (x 1+ x2 + x 3 + x 4 )1

= = the sum of coeffs of x 2 , x 3 , x 4 in ( x 2 +2 x 3 +3 x 4 + 4 x 5+ … )=¿1+2+3=6

∴ The probability of getting a sum 2 to 4 = 6/24 = 1/4

Hence the required chance = 1 - (1/4) = 3/4..

Self-practice problems:

Q.1: End the chance of throwing 10 with 4 dice.

Q.2: Four tickets marked 00, 01, 10, 11 respectively are placed in a bag. A ticket is drawn at random five times,
being replaced each time. Find the probability that the sum of the numbers on tickets thus drawn is 23.

Q.3: Counters marked 1, 2, 3 are placed in a bag, one is withdrawn and replaced three times What is the chance
of obtaining a total of 6?

Q.4: The four faces of a regular tetrahedron are numbered 1. 2. 3. It is thrown five times and the figure on the
lowest face is noted down. What is the probability that the sum will be 12?

Q.5: Find the chance of throwing more than 16 in one throw with 3 dice

Q.6: There are 10 tickets, & af which are blanks, and the others are marked with numbers 1,2, 3, 4, 5. What is
chance of drawing 10 in three trials, the tickets are replaced after every trial.

Q.7: Five coins whose faces are marked 2. 3 are thrown, what is the chance of obtaining a total of 12?

Definition: probability distribution

The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X is a list of each possible value of X together with the
probability that X takes that value in one trial of the experiment. probability distribution of a random variable X
must satisfy the following two conditions:

Each probability P(x) must be between 0 and 1: 0≤P(x)≤1.

The sum of all the possible probabilities is 1: ∑P(x)=1.

Definition: random variable A random variable is a numerical quantity that is generated by a random
experiment.
We will denote random variables by capital letters, such as X or Z, and the actual values that they can take by
lowercase letters, such as and z.

Types of Random Variable: (I )Discrete Random Variable. (ii) Continuous Random Variable

Discrete Random Variable: A discrete random variable is countable number of values. Tossing of a coin or
throwing a die are the examples of the discrete variables.

Continuous Random Variable: A continuous random variable is a random variable that can take any value in an
interval of two numbers

Key Takeaway

A random variable is a number generated by a random experiment.

A random variable is called discrete if its possible values form a finite or countable set.

A random variable is called continuous if its possible values contain a whole interval of numbers.

Example of Random variables:

Experiment Number X Possible Values of X

Sum of the number of dots on the
Roll two fair dice 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
top faces
Number of tosses until the coin
Flip a fair coin repeatedly 1, 2, 3,4, …
lands heads
Measure the voltage at an
Voltage measured 118 ≤ x ≤ 122
electrical outlet
Operate a light bulb until it burns
Time until the bulb burns out 0≤x<∞
Probability Mass Function: Probability function 𝑃(𝑥) of a discrete random variable 𝑥 is called Probability Mass
out

Function. The probability mass function of random variables 𝑥1, 𝑥2 , … , 𝑥𝑛 are 𝑃(𝑥1), 𝑃(𝑥2 ), … , 𝑃(𝑥𝑛).
Properties of Probability Mass Function

Each probability P(x) must be between 0 and 1: 0≤P(x)≤1.

The sum of all the possible probabilities is 1: ∑P(x)=1.

EX.1: A fair coin is tossed twice. Let X be the number of heads that are observed.

Construct the probability distribution of X. Find the probability that at least one head is observed.

Solution: a. The possible values that X can take are 0, 1, and 2. Each of these numbers corresponds to an event
in the sample space S={hh, ht, th, tt} of equally likely outcomes for this experiment:

X=0 to{tt}, X=1to {ht, th}, and X=2 to {h h}.

The probability of each of these events, hence of the corresponding value of X can be found simply by counting,
to give. This table of probability distribution of X.

X (number of heads) 0 1 2
P(x) ¼ = 0.25 ½ = 0.5 ¼ = 0.25
“At least one head” is the event X≥1, which is the union of the mutually exclusive events X=1 and X=2. Thus
P(X≥1)=P(1)+P(2)=0.50+0.25=0.75
Ex.2: A pair of fair dice is rolled. Let X denote the sum of the number of dots on the top faces.

Construct the probability distribution of X for a pair of fair dice. Find P(X≥9).

Find the probability that X takes an even value.

Solution: The sample space of equally likely outcomes is

Table for pair of fair dice

Dice 1 2 3 4 5 6
dots
1 1, 1,2 1, 1,4 1, 1,6
1 3 5
2 2, 2,2 2, 2,4 2, 2,6
1 3 5
3 3, 3,2 3, 3,4 3, 3,6
1 3 5
4 4, 4,2 4, 4,4 4, 4,6
1 3 5
5 5, 5,2 5, 5,4 5, 5,6
1 3 5
6 6, 6,2 6, 6,4 6, 6,6
1 3 5
The possible values for X are the sum of 2 number of dots. X=2 is the event {1,1} so P(2)=1/36. X=3 is the
event {(1,2),(2,1)}, so P(3)=2/36. Continuing this way, we obtain the following table

X= 2= 3= 4= 5=
7= 6= 8= 9= 10= 11= 12=
sum of (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4)
(1,6) (1,5) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)
event (2,1) (2,2) (2,3)
(2,5) (2,4) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)
(3,1) (3,2)
(3,4) (3,3) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)
(4,1)
(4,3) (4,2) (5,3) (6,3)
(5,2) (5,1) (6,2)
(6,1)
P(x) 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
The event X≥9 is the union of the mutually exclusive events X=9, X=10, X=11, and X=12. Thus
4 3 2 1 10 5
P(X≥9)=P(9)+P(10)+P(11)+P(12)= + + + = =
36 36 36 36 36 18

Before we immediately jump to the conclusion that the probability that X takes an even value must be 0.5, note
that X takes six different even values but only five different odd values. We Compute

1 3 5 5 3 1 18
P(X is even)=P(2)+P(4)+P(6)+P(8)+P(10)+P(12)= + + + + + = =0.5
36 36 36 36 36 36 36

multinomial distribution, in statistics, a generalization of the binomial distribution, which admits only
two values (such as success and failure), to more than two values. Like the binomial distribution, the multinomial
distribution is a distribution function for discrete processes in which fixed probabilities prevail for each
independently generated value. Although processes involving multinomial distributions can be studied using the
binomial distribution by focusing on one result of interest and combining all of the other results into one
category (simplifying the distribution to two values), multinomial distributions are more useful when all of the
results are of interest.

In symbols, a multinomial distribution involves a process that has a set of perform n times an experiment with K
outcomes (i.e.k possible results) (X1, X2, X3,…, Xk) with associated probabilities ( P1 , P2 , P3 ,… … … , P K ) such that
Σpi = 1. The sum of the probabilities must equal 1 because one of the results is sure to occur. Then for n repeated
trials of the process, let xi indicate the number of times that the result Xi occurs, subject to the restraints that 0
≤ xi ≤ n and Σxi = n. With this notation, the joint probability density function is given by

Ex.1: In a three-way election for a large country, candidate A received 20% of the votes, candidate B received
30% of the votes, and candidate C received 50% of the votes. If six voters are selected randomly, what is the
probability that there will be exactly one supporter for candidate A, two supporters for candidate B and three
supporters for candidate C in the sample?

Solution: P(A)= 20%=0.2 P(B)= 30% = 0.3 and P(C) = 50% = 0.5

3! 1 2 3
P(A=1, B=2, C=3.)= (0.2) (0.3) ( 0.5) = 0.135Ans.
1! .2 ! .3 !

Ex.2: Jury Selection that the racial/ethnic distribution in a large city is given by the table that follows. Consider
these three options as the parameters of a multinomial distribution.

Black Hispanic Other

20% 15% 65%

Suppose that a jury of twelve members is chosen from this city in such a way that each resident has an equal probability of
being selected independently of every other resident. There are a number of questions that we can ask of this type of
distribution. find the probability that the jury contains:

three Black, two Hispanic, and seven Other members ; four Black and eight Other members; at most one Black member.

Solution: let x= ( x 1, x 2 , x 3) where x 1= number of Black members, x 2= number of Hispanic members, and x 3= number of
Other members. Then x has a multinomial distribution with parameters n=12.

P( X 1 ) = 20% = 0.2 P( X 2 ) = 15% = 0.15 and P( X 3 ) = 65% = 0.65.

12! 3 2 7
P( x 1=3, x 2=2 , x3 =7) = (0.2) (0.15) (0.65) = 0.0699
3! .2 ! .7 !

12 ! 4 0 8
P( x 1=4 , x 2=0 , x 3=8) = (0.2) (0.15) (0.65) = 0.0252
4 ! .0 ! .8 !

at most one Black member" means x 1=0 or x 1=1. x 1 is a binomial random variable with n=12 and Using the binomial
probability distribution, p=P( x 1) =0.2 q=1-p=0.8

P( x 1 ≤ 1) = P( x 1=0 ) +P( x 1=1) = C(12,0)* p0 ¿ q12 + C(12,1)* p1∗q11=