International

Standard

ISO 10928
Plastics piping systems — Glass- Fourth edition
reinforced thermosetting plastics 2024-03
(GRP) pipes and fittings — Methods
for regression analysis and their use
Systèmes de canalisations en matières plastiques — Tubes et
raccords plastiques thermodurcissables renforcés de verre (PRV)
— Méthodes pour une analyse de régression et leurs utilisations

Reference number
ISO 10928:2024(en) © ISO 2024
 ISO 10928:2024(en)

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© ISO 2024
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 ISO 10928:2024(en)

Contents Page

Foreword..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... iv
Introduction.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. v
1 Scope.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1
2 Normative references.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1
3 Terms and definitions................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1
4 Principle..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1
5 Procedures for determining the linear relationships — Methods A and B........................................................ 1
5.1 Procedures common to methods A and B.................................................................................................................................... 1
5.2 Method A — Covariance method......................................................................................................................................................... 2
5.2.1 General......................................................................................................................................................................................................2
5.2.2 Suitability of data.............................................................................................................................................................................3
5.2.3 Functional relationships............................................................................................................................................................ 3
5.2.4 Calculation of variances.............................................................................................................................................................4
5.2.5 Check for the suitability of data for extrapolation.............................................................................................4
5.2.6 Validation of statistical procedures by an example calculation............................................................5
5.3 Method B — Regression with time as the independent variable............................................................................8
5.3.1 General......................................................................................................................................................................................................8
5.3.2 Suitability of data.............................................................................................................................................................................9
5.3.3 Functional relationships............................................................................................................................................................9
5.3.4 Check for the suitability of data for extrapolation.............................................................................................9
5.3.5 Validation of statistical procedures by an example calculation............................................................9
6 Application of methods to product design and testing......................................................................................................... 11
6.1 General......................................................................................................................................................................................................................11
6.2 Product design...................................................................................................................................................................................................11
6.3 Comparison to a specified value........................................................................................................................................................11
6.4 Declaration of a long-term value.......................................................................................................................................................11
Annex A (informative) Second-order polynomial relationships.................................................................................................... 12
Annex B (normative) Calculation of lower confidence and prediction limits for method A............................. 16
Bibliography.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19


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Foreword
ISO (the International Organization for Standardization) is a worldwide federation of national standards
bodies (ISO member bodies). The work of preparing International Standards is normally carried out through
ISO technical committees. Each member body interested in a subject for which a technical committee
has been established has the right to be represented on that committee. International organizations,
governmental and non-governmental, in liaison with ISO, also take part in the work. ISO collaborates closely
with the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) on all matters of electrotechnical standardization.
The procedures used to develop this document and those intended for its further maintenance are described
in the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 1. In particular, the different approval criteria needed for the different types
of ISO document should be noted. This document was drafted in accordance with the editorial rules of the
ISO/IEC Directives, Part 2 (see www.iso.org/directives).
ISO draws attention to the possibility that the implementation of this document may involve the use of (a)
patent(s). ISO takes no position concerning the evidence, validity or applicability of any claimed patent
rights in respect thereof. As of the date of publication of this document, ISO had not received notice of (a)
patent(s) which may be required to implement this document. However, implementers are cautioned that
this may not represent the latest information, which may be obtained from the patent database available at
www.iso.org/patents. ISO shall not be held responsible for identifying any or all such patent rights.
Any trade name used in this document is information given for the convenience of users and does not
constitute an endorsement.
For an explanation of the voluntary nature of standards, the meaning of ISO specific terms and expressions
related to conformity assessment, as well as information about ISO's adherence to the World Trade
Organization (WTO) principles in the Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT), see www.iso.org/iso/foreword.html.
This document was prepared by Technical Committee ISO/TC 138, Plastics pipes, fittings and valves for the
transport of fluids, Subcommittee SC 6, Reinforced plastics pipes and fittings for all applications.
This fourth edition cancels and replaces the third edition (ISO 10928:2016), which has been technically
revised.
The main changes are as follows:
— Annex B, “Non-linear relationships”, has been removed due to its complexity and highly specialized and
limited application;
— Formula (B.3) [Formula (C.3) in ISO 10928:2016] has been corrected to include a factor 2 before BxL.
Any feedback or questions on this document should be directed to the user’s national standards body. A
complete listing of these bodies can be found at www.iso.org/members.html.


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 ISO 10928:2024(en)

Introduction
This document describes the procedures intended for analysing the regression of test data, usually with
respect to time, and the use of the results in the design and assessment of conformity with performance
requirements. Its applicability is limited to use with data obtained from tests carried out on samples.
Referring standards require estimates to be made of the long-term properties of the pipe for such parameters
as circumferential tensile strength, long-term ring deflection, strain corrosion and creep or relaxation
stiffness.
A range of statistical techniques that can be used to analyse the test data produced by destructive tests were
investigated in the preparation of this document. Many of these simple techniques require the logarithms of
the data to:
a) be normally distributed;
b) produce a regression line having a negative slope; and
c) have a sufficiently high regression correlation (see Table 1).
Analysis of data from several tests showed that in the destructive test context, while conditions b) and c)
can be satisfied, there is often a skew to the distribution and hence condition a) is not satisfied. Further
investigation into techniques that can handle skewed distributions resulted in the adoption of the covariance
method (method A, see 5.2) for the analysis of such data within this document.
The results from non-destructive tests, such as long-term creep or relaxation stiffness, often satisfy all three
conditions. Therefore, a simpler procedure, using time as the independent variable (method B, see 5.3), can
also be used in accordance with this document.
These two analysis procedures (method A and method B) are limited to analysis methods specified in ISO
product standards or test methods. Other analysis procedures can be useful for the extrapolation and
prediction of long-term behaviour of some properties of glass-reinforced thermosetting plastics (GRP)
piping products. For example, a second-order polynomial analysis is sometimes useful in the extrapolation
of creep and relaxation data. This is particularly the case for analysing shorter term data, where the shape
of the creep or relaxation curve can deviate considerably from linear. A second-order polynomial analysis is
included in Annex A.


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International Standard ISO 10928:2024(en)

Plastics piping systems — Glass-reinforced thermosetting

plastics (GRP) pipes and fittings — Methods for regression
analysis and their use

1 Scope
This document specifies procedures suitable for the analysis of data which, when converted into logarithms
of the values, have either a normal or a skewed distribution. It is intended for use with test methods and
referring standards for glass-reinforced thermosetting plastics (GRP) pipes or fittings for the analysis of
properties as a function of time. However, it can also be used for the analysis of other data.
Two methods are specified, which are used depending on the nature of the data. Extrapolation using these
techniques typically extends a trend from data gathered over a period of approximately 10 000 h to a
prediction of the property at 50 years, which is the typical maximum extrapolation time.
This document only addresses the analysis of data. The test procedures for collecting the data, the number of
samples required and the time period over which data are collected are covered by the referring standards and/
or test methods. Clause 6 discusses how the data analysis methods are applied to product testing and design.

2 Normative references
There are no normative references in this document.

3 Terms and definitions

No terms and definitions are listed in this document.
ISO and IEC maintain terminology databases for use in standardization at the following addresses:
— ISO Online browsing platform: available at https://​w ww​.iso​.org/​obp
— IEC Electropedia: available at https://​w ww​.electropedia​.org/​

4 Principle
Data are analysed for regression using methods based on least squares analysis which can accommodate the
incidence of a skew or a normal distribution or both. The two methods of analysis used are the following:
— method A: covariance using a first-order relationship;
— method B: least squares, with time as the independent variable using a first-order relationship.
The methods include statistical tests for the correlation of the data and the suitability for extrapolation.

5 Procedures for determining the linear relationships — Methods A and B

5.1 Procedures common to methods A and B

Use method A (see 5.2) or method B (see 5.3) to fit a straight line of the form given in Formula (1):
y = a + b× x (1)

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where

y is the logarithm, lg, of the property being investigated;

a is the intercept on the y-axis;

b is the slope;

x is the logarithm, lg, of the time, in hours.

5.2 Method A — Covariance method

5.2.1 General

For method A, calculate the following variables in accordance with 5.2.2 to 5.2.5, using Formulae (2), (3)
and (4):

Qy =
∑ ( y i − Y )2
(2)
n

Qx =
∑ ( xi − X )2
(3)
n

Qxy =
∑ [ ( x i − X ) × ( yi − Y ) ] (4)
n
where

Qy is the sum of the squared residuals parallel to the y-axis, divided by n;

Qx is the sum of the squared residuals parallel to the x-axis, divided by n;

Qxy is the sum of the squared residuals perpendicular to the line, divided by n;

Y is the arithmetic mean of the y data, i.e. given as Formula (5):

Y=
∑ yi (5)
n

X is the arithmetic mean of the x data, i.e. given as Formula (6):

X=
∑ xi (6)
n

x i, yi are individual values;

n is the total number of results (pairs of readings for xi, yi).

NOTE If the value of Qxy is greater than zero, the slope of the line is positive and if the value of Qxy is less than zero,
then the slope is negative.


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5.2.2 Suitability of data

Calculate the linear coefficient of correlation, r, using Formulae (7) and (8):

Qxy
2
r = 2
(7)
Qx × Qy

( )
0,5
r = r2 (8)

Table 1 gives the minimum acceptable values of the correlation coefficient, r, as a function of the number of
variables, n, and Student´s t-distribution t ν, where t ν is based on a two-sided 0,01 level of significance.

Table 1 — Minimum values of the correlation coefficient, r, for acceptable data from n pairs of data
Number of Degrees of Student's t Minimum Number of Degrees of Student's t Minimum
variables freedom -distribu- r variables freedom -distribu- r
n n−2 tion n n−2 tion
t ν (0,01) t ν (0,01)
13 11 3,106 0,683 5 26 24 2,797 0,495 8
14 12 3,055 0,661 4 27 25 2,787 0,486 9
15 13 3,012 0,641 1 32 30 2,750 0,448 7
16 14 2,977 0,622 6 37 35 2,724 0,418 2
17 15 2,947 0,605 5 42 40 2,704 0,393 2
18 16 2,921 0,589 7 47 45 2,690 0,372 1
19 17 2,898 0,575 1 52 50 2,678 0,354 2
20 18 2,878 0,561 4 62 60 2,660 0,324 8
21 19 2,861 0,548 7 72 70 2,648 0,301 7
22 20 2,845 0,536 8 82 80 2,639 0,283 0
23 21 2,831 0,525 6 92 90 2,632 0,267 3
24 22 2,819 0,515 1 102 100 2,626 0,254 0
25 23 2,807 0,505 2

5.2.3 Functional relationships

Find a and b for the functional relationship line using Formula (1).
First, set the gamma function Γ as given in Formula (9):
Qy
Γ = (9)
Qx
then calculate a and b using Formulae (10) and (11):

b = − ( Γ )0 ,5 (10)

a = Y − b× X (11)


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5.2.4 Calculation of variances

If tu is the applicable time to failure, then set xu, the logarithm of tu, as given in Formula (12):
x u = lg t u (12)

Using Formulae (13), (14) and (15) respectively, calculate for i = 1 to n, the following sequence of statistics:
— the best fit xi ′ for true xi;
— the best fit yi ′ for true yi;
— the error variance, σδ2, for x.
Γ × x i + b × ( yi − a )
xi ′ = (13)
2× Γ
yi ′ = a + b × x i ′ (14)

σδ 2

=
∑ ( yi − yi ′)2 + Γ × ∑ ( xi − xi ′)2  (15)
( n − 2) × Γ
Calculate quantities E and D using Formulae (16) and (17):

b × σ δ2
E= (16)
2 × Qxy

2 × Γ × b × σ δ2
D= (17)
n × Qxy
Calculate the variance, C, of the slope b, using Formula (18):
C = D × (1 + E ) (18)

5.2.5 Check for the suitability of data for extrapolation

If it is intended to extrapolate the line, calculate the parameter T using Formula (19):
b b
T= = (19)
( var b ) 0 ,5
C 0 ,5

If the absolute value, |T| (i.e. ignoring signs), of T is equal to or greater than the applicable value for Student's
t-distribution, tv, shown in Table 2 for (n − 2) degrees of freedom, then consider the data suitable for
extrapolation.
Calculation of confidence limits is not required by the test methods or referring standards. However, the
calculation of the lower confidence limit (LCL), and lower prediction limit (LPL) shall be in accordance with
Annex B.


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Table 2 — Percentage points of Student's t-distribution (upper 2,5 % points; two-sided 5 % level of
confidence; tv for 97,5 %)
Degree of Student's t Degree of Student's t Degree of Student's t
freedom value freedom value freedom value
(n − 2) tv (n − 2) tv (n − 2) tv
1 12,706 2 36 2,028 1 71 1,993 9
2 4,302 7 37 2,026 2 72 1,993 5
3 3,182 4 38 2,024 4 73 1,993 0
4 2,776 4 39 2,022 7 74 1,992 5
5 2,570 6 40 2,021 1 75 1,992 1
6 2,446 9 41 2,019 5 76 1,991 7
7 2,364 6 42 2,018 1 77 1,991 3
8 2,306 0 43 2,016 7 78 1,990 8
9 2,262 2 44 2,015 4 79 1,990 5
10 2,228 1 45 2,014 1 80 1,990 1
11 2,201 0 46 2,012 9 81 1,989 7
12 2,178 8 47 2,011 2 82 1,989 3
13 2,160 4 48 2,010 6 83 1,989 0
14 2,144 8 49 2,009 6 84 1,988 6
15 2,131 5 50 2,008 6 85 1,988 3
16 2,119 9 51 2,007 6 86 1,987 9
17 2,109 8 52 2,006 6 87 1,987 6
18 2,100 9 53 2,005 7 88 1,987 3
19 2,093 0 54 2,004 9 89 1,987 0
20 2,086 0 55 2,004 0 90 1,986 7
21 2,079 6 56 2,003 2 91 1,986 4
22 2,073 9 57 2,002 5 92 1,986 1
23 2,068 7 58 2,001 7 93 1,985 8
24 2,063 9 59 2,001 0 94 1,985 5
25 2,059 5 60 2,000 3 95 1,985 3
26 2,055 5 61 1,999 6 96 1,985 0
27 2,051 8 62 1,999 0 97 1,984 7
28 2,048 4 63 1,998 3 98 1,984 5
29 2,045 2 64 1,997 7 99 1,984 2
30 2,042 3 65 1,997 1 100 1,984 0
31 2,039 5 66 1,996 6
32 2,036 9 67 1,996 0
33 2,034 5 68 1,995 5
34 2,032 2 69 1,994 9
35 2,030 1 70 1,994 4

5.2.6 Validation of statistical procedures by an example calculation

The data given in Table 3 are used in the following example to aid in verifying that statistical procedures,
as well as computer programs and spreadsheets adopted by users, will produce results similar to those
obtained from the formulae given in this document. For the purposes of the example, the property in
question is represented by V, the values for which are of a typical magnitude and in no particular units.
Due to rounding errors, it is unlikely that the results will agree exactly, so for a calculation procedure to be
acceptable, the results obtained for r, r2, b, a, and the mean value of V, and Vm, shall agree to within ±0,1 %
of the values given in this example. The values of other statistics are provided to assist the checking of the
procedure.


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 ISO 10928:2024(en)

Sums of squares:
Qx = 0,798 12;
Qy = 0,000 88;
Qxy = −0,024 84.
Coefficient of correlation:
r2 = 0,879 99;
r = 0,938 08.
Functional relationships:
Г = 0,001 10;
b = −0,033 17;
a = 1,627 31.

Table 3 — Basic data for example calculation and statistical analysis validation
n V Y Time, T X
lg V h lg h
1 30,8 1,488 6 5 184 3,714 7
2 30,8 1,488 6 2 230 3,348 3
3 31,5 1,498 3 2 220 3,346 4
4 31,5 1,498 3 12 340 4,091 3
5 31,5 1,498 3 10 900 4,037 4
6 31,5 1,498 3 12 340 4,091 3
7 31,5 1,498 3 10 920 4,038 2
8 32,2 1,507 9 8 900 3,949 4
9 32,2 1,507 9 4 173 3,620 4
10 32,2 1,507 9 8 900 3,949 4
11 32,2 1,507 9 878 2,943 5
12 32,9 1,517 2 4 110 3,613 8
13 32,9 1,517 2 1 301 3,114 3
14 32,9 1,517 2 3 816 3,581 6
15 32,9 1,517 2 669 2,825 4
16 33,6 1,526 3 1 430 3,155 3
17 33,6 1,526 3 2 103 3,322 8
18 33,6 1,526 3 589 2,770 1
19 33,6 1,526 3 1 710 3,233 0
20 33,6 1,526 3 1 299 3,113 6
21 35,0 1,544 1 272 2,434 6
22 35,0 1,544 1 446 2,649 3
23 35,0 1,544 1 466 2,668 4
24 35,0 1,544 1 684 2,835 1


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Table 3 (continued)
n V Y Time, T X
lg V h lg h
25 36,4 1,561 1 104 2,017 0
26 36,4 1,561 1 142 2,152 3
27 36,4 1,561 1 204 2,309 6
28 36,4 1,561 1 209 2,320 1
29 38,5 1,585 5 9 0,954 2
30 38,5 1,585 5 13 1,113 9
31 38,5 1,585 5 17 1,230 4
32 38,5 1,585 5 17 1,230 4
Means: Y = 1,530 1 X = 2, 930 5

Calculated variances (see 5.2.4):

E = 3,520 2 × 10−2;
D = 4,842 2 × 10−6;
C = 5,012 7 × 10−6 (the variance of b);
σδ2 = 5,271 1 × 10−2 (the error variance of x).
Check for the suitability for extrapolation (see 5.2.5):
n = 32;
tv = 2,042 3;
T = −0,033 17 / (5,012 7 × 10−6)0,5 = −14,816 7;
|T| = 14,816 7 > 2,042 3.
The estimated mean values for V at various times are given in Table 4 and shown in Figure 1.

Table 4 — Estimated mean values, Vm, for V

Time
Vm
h
0,1 45,76
1 42,39
10 39,28
100 36,39
1 000 33,71
10 000 31,23
100 000 28,94
438 000 27,55


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Key
X lg scale of time, in hours
Y lg scale of property
1 438 000 h (50 years)
2 regression line from Table 4
3 data point

Figure 1 — Regression line from the results in Table 4

5.3 Method B — Regression with time as the independent variable

5.3.1 General

For method B, calculate the sum of the squared residuals parallel to the Y-axis, Sy, using Formula (20):

Sy = ∑ ( y i − Y )2 (20)

Calculate the sum of the squared residuals parallel to the X-axis, Sx, using Formula (21):

Sx = ∑ ( x i − X )2 (21)

Calculate the sum of the squared residuals perpendicular to the line, Sxy, using Formula (22):

S xy = ∑ [ ( x i − X ) × ( yi − Y ) ] (22)

where

Y is the arithmetic mean of the y data, i.e.


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Y=
∑ yi ;
n

X is the arithmetic mean of the x data, i.e.

X=
∑ xi ;
n

x i, yi are individual values;

n is the total number of results (pairs of readings for xi, yi).

NOTE If the value of Sxy is greater than zero, the slope of the line is positive. If the value of Sxy is less than zero,
then the slope is negative.

5.3.2 Suitability of data

Calculate the squared, r2, and the linear coefficient of correlation, r, using Formulae (23) and (24):

S xy
2
r2 = (23)
Sx × Sy

( )
0,5
r = r2 (24)

If the value of r2 or r is less than the applicable minimum value given in Table 1 as a function of n, consider
the data unsuitable for analysis.

5.3.3 Functional relationships

Calculate a and b for the functional relationship line [see Formula (1)], using Formulae (25) and (26):
S xy
b= (25)
Sx
a = Y − b× X (26)

5.3.4 Check for the suitability of data for extrapolation

If it is intended to extrapolate the line, calculate the parameter M using Formula (27):

M=
S x2
−
(
t v 2 × S x × S y − S xy 2 ) (27)
S xy 2 ( n − 2) × S y 2
where tv is the applicable value for Student's t determined from Table 2.
If M is equal to or less than zero, consider the data unsuitable for extrapolation.

5.3.5 Validation of statistical procedures by an example calculation

The data given in Table 5 are used in the following example to aid in verifying that statistical procedures,
as well as computer programs and spreadsheets adopted by users, will produce results similar to those
obtained from the formulae given in this document. Use the data given in Table 5 for the calculation
procedures described in 5.3.2 to 5.3.4 to ensure that the statistical procedures to be used in conjunction


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with this method will give results for r, r2, a, b and Vm (the estimated mean value) to within ±0,1 % of the
values given in this example.

Table 5 — Basic data for example calculation and statistical validation

n Time, T X V Y
h lg T lg V
1 0,10 −1,000 0 7 114 3,852 1
2 0,27 −0,568 6 6 935 3,841 0
3 0,50 −0,301 0 6 824 3,834 1
4 1,00 0 6 698 3,825 9
5 3,28 0,515 9 6 533 3,815 1
6 7,28 0,862 1 6 453 3,809 8
7 20,0 1,301 0 6 307 3,799 9
8 45,9 1,661 8 6 199 3,792 3
9 72,0 1,857 3 6 133 3,787 7
10 166 2,220 1 5 692 3,755 2
11 219 2,340 4 5 508 3,741 0
12 384 2,584 3 5 393 3,731 8
13 504 2,702 4 5 364 3,729 5
14 3 000 3,477 1 5 200 3,716 0
15 10 520 4,022 0 4 975 3,696 8
Means: X = 1,445 0 Y = 3,781 9

Sums of squares:
Sx = 31,681 1;
Sy = 0,034 7;
Sxy = −1,024 2.
Coefficient of correlation:
r2 = 0,955 6;
r = 0,977 5.
Functional relationships (see 5.3.3):
a = 3,828 6;
b = −0,032 3.
Check for the suitability for extrapolation (see 5.3.4):
tv = 2,160 4;
M = 942,21.
The estimated mean values, Vm, for V at various times are given in Table 6.


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Table 6 — Estimated mean values, Vm, for V

Time
Vm
h
0,1 7 259
1 6 739
10 6 256
100 5 808
1 000 5 391
10 000 5 005
100 000 4 646
438 000 4 428

6 Application of methods to product design and testing

6.1 General
The referring standards specify limiting requirements for the long-term properties and performance of a
product. Some of these are based on destructive tests, for example, hoop tensile strength, while others are
based on actual or derived physical properties, such as creep stiffness.
These properties require an extrapolated long-term (e.g. 50 years) value for the establishment of a product
design or comparison with the requirement. This extrapolated value is determined by inserting, as necessary,
the values for a and b, determined in accordance with 5.2 and 5.3 as appropriate, into Formula (28).
lg y = a + b × t L (28)

where t L is the logarithm, lg, of the long-term period, in hours [for 50 years (438 000 h), t L = 5,641 47].
Solving Formula (28) for y gives the extrapolated value.
The use of the data and the specification of requirements in the product standards are separated into three
distinct categories.

6.2 Product design

In the first category, the data are used for design or calculation of a product line. This is the case for long-
term circumferential strength testing (ISO 7509). The long-term destructive test data are analysed using
method A.

6.3 Comparison to a specified value

The second category is where the long-term extrapolated value is compared to a minimum requirement
given in the product standard. This is the case for long-term ring bending (ISO 10471) and strain corrosion
(ISO 10952). The long-term destructive test data are analysed using method A and can be used to establish
a value to compare to the product standard requirement. As the analysis of the data provides a long-
term stress or strain value, this value may also be utilized in analysis of product suitability for a range of
installation and application conditions.

6.4 Declaration of a long-term value

The third category is when the long-term extrapolated value is used to calculate a long-term property and
this value is then declared by the manufacturer. This is the case for long-term creep (ISO 10468) stiffness.
The long-term non-destructive test data are analysed using method B.


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Annex A
(informative)

Second-order polynomial relationships

A.1 General
This method fits a curved line of the form given in Formula (A.1):

y = c + d × x + e × x2 (A.1)

where

y is the logarithm, lg, of the property being investigated;

c is the intercept on the y-axis;

d, e are the coefficients to the two orders of x;

x is the logarithm, lg, of the time, in hours.

A.2 Variables
Calculate the following variables:

∑ xi , the sum of all individual x data;

∑ xi 2 , the sum of all squared x data;
∑ xi3 , the sum of all x data to the third power;
∑ xi 4 , the sum of all x data to the fourth power;
∑ yi , the sum of all individual y data;
( ∑ yi ) , the squared sum of all individual y data;
2

∑ yi 2 , the sum of all squared y data;

∑ ( xi × yi ) , the sum of all products xi,yi;
∑ ( xi 2 × yi ) , the sum of all products xi2yi;
S x = ∑ ( x i − X )2 , the sum of the squared residuals parallel to the X-axis for the linear part;

∑ ( xi 2 − X 2 ) , the sum of the squared residuals parallel to the X-axis for the quadratic part;
2
S xx =

S y = ∑ ( yi − Y )2 , the sum of the squared residuals parallel to the Y-axis;

S xy = ∑ [( x i − X ) × ( yi − Y )] , the sum of the squared residuals perpendicular to the line for the linear part;


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 ISO 10928:2024(en)

S xxy = ∑ ( xi 2 − X 2 ) × ( yi − Y ) , the sum of the squared residuals perpendicular to the line for the
quadratic part
where

Y is the arithmetic mean of the y data, i.e. Y =

∑ yi ;
n

X is the arithmetic mean of the x data, i.e. X =

∑ xi .
n

A.3 Solution system

Determine c, d and e using the matrix shown in Formulae (A.2), (A.3) and (A.4):

∑ yi = c ×n +d× ∑ xi +e× ∑ xi 2 (A.2)

∑ ( x i × yi ) =c× ∑ xi +d× ∑ xi 2 + e × ∑ xi3 (A.3)

∑ ( x i 2 × yi ) = c × ∑ x i ∑ xi3 + e × ∑ xi 4
2
+d× (A.4)

A.4 Suitability of data

Calculate the squared, r2, and the linear coefficient of correlation, r, using Formulae (A.5) and (A.6):

∑ yi + d × ∑ ( xi × yi ) + e × ∑ ( xi 2 × yi ) − ( ∑ yi ) / n
2
c×
r =2  (A.5)
∑ yi 2 − ( ∑ yi ) / n
2

r = r2 ( ) 0 ,5 (A.6)

If the value of r2 or r is less than the applicable minimum value given in Table 1 as a function of n, consider
the data unsuitable for analysis.

A.5 Check for the suitability of data for extrapolation

If it is intended to extrapolate the line, calculate M using Formula (A.7):

M=
S x2
+
S xx 2
−
(
t v 2 × S x × S y − S xy 2 + S xx × S y − S xxy 2 ) (A.7)
S xy 2
S xxy 2
( n − 2) × S y 2

If M is equal to or less than zero, consider the data unsuitable for extrapolation.

A.6 Validation of statistical procedures by an example calculation

Use the data given in Table 5 for the calculation procedures described in A.1 to A.5 to ensure that the
statistical procedures to be used in conjunction with this method will give results for r, r2, a, b and Vm to
within ±0,1 % of the values given in this example (n = 15).

∑ xi = 21,671;


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 ISO 10928:2024(en)

∑ xi 2 = 62,989;

∑ xi 3 = 180,623;

∑ xi 4 = 584,233;

∑ yi = 56,728;

( ∑ yi )
2
= 3 218,09;

∑ yi2 = 214,574;

∑ ( xi × yi ) = 80,932;

∑ ( xi2 × yi ) = 235,175;

S x = ∑ ( xi − X )2 = 31,681;

∑ ( xi 2 − X 2 ) = 386,638;
2
S xx =

S y = ∑ ( yi − Y )2 = 0,034 7;

S xy = ∑[( xi − X ) × ( yi − Y )] = −1,024 2;

S xxy = ∑ ( xi2 − X 2 ) × ( yi − Y )  = −3,041 8.

 

Solution system:
c = 3,828 8;
d = −0,026 2;
e = −0,002 2.
Coefficient of correlation:
r2 = 0,964 7;
r = 0,982 2.
Check for the suitability for extrapolation:
tv = 2,160 4;
M = 15 859,6.
The estimated mean values, Vm, for V at various times are given in Table A.1 and shown in Figure A.1.

Table A.1 — Estimated mean values, Vm, for V

Time
Vm
h
0,1 7 125
1 6 742
10 6 315
100 5 856
1 000 5 375


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 ISO 10928:2024(en)

Table A.1 (continued)

Time
Vm
h
10 000 4 884
100 000 4 393
438 000 4 091

Key
X lg scale of time, in hours
Y lg scale of property
1 438 000 h (50 years)
2 regression line from Table A.1
3 data point

Figure A.1 — Estimated mean values, Vm, for V


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 ISO 10928:2024(en)

Annex B
(normative)

Calculation of lower confidence and prediction limits for method A

B.1 General
The calculation of confidence limits is not required by any of the ISO or CEN test methods or referring
standards. However, the calculation of lower confidence limit (LCL) and lower prediction limit (LPL) is
required by other standards (for example ASTM D 2992) using the same basic covariant analysis procedures
of the test data collected by similar test methods.

B.2 Calculation of quantities and variances

Calculate the quantity B using Formula (B.1):
B = − D × X (1 + E ) (B.1)

where

D quantity according to Formula (17);

X arithmetic mean of the x data according to Formula (6);

E quantity according to Formula (16).

Calculate the variance, A, of α using Formula (B.2):

A = D  X 2 (1 + E ) + Q xy / b  (B.2)

where

Qxy is the sum of the squared residuals perpendicular to the line, divided by n, according to Formula (4);

b is the slope, see Formula (1).

Calculate the variance, σn2, of the fitted line at xL using Formula (B.3):

σ n2 = A + 2Bx L + Cx L2 (B.3)

where C is the variance of the slope, b, according to Formula (18).

Calculate the error variance, σε2, for y [see Formula (1)] using Formula (B.4):

σ ε 2 = 2Γ σ δ 2 (B.4)

where

Γ is the gamma function according to Formula (9);

σδ2 is the error variance for x [see Formula (1)] according to Formula (15).


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 ISO 10928:2024(en)

Calculate the total variance, σy2, for future values of yL at xL using Formula (B.5):

σ y 2 = σ n2 + σ ε2 (B.5)

Calculate the estimated standard deviation, σy, for yL using Formula (B.6):

σ y = (σ n2 + σ ε2 )0 ,5 (B.6)

B.3 Calculation of confidence intervals

Calculate the predicted value yL for y at xL using Formula (B.7):
yL = a + bx L (B.7)

where a and b are as calculated by Formulae (10) and (11) (see 5.2.3).
Calculate the lower 95 % prediction interval yL0,95 predicted for yL using Formula (B.8):
yL 0 ,95 = yL − t v σ y (B.8)

where tv is the value from Table 2.

Calculate the corresponding lower 95 % prediction limit for xL using Formula (B.9):
yL 0 ,95
x L 0 ,95 = 10 (B.9)

Setting σ y 2 = σ n2 in Formula (B.5) will calculate a confidence interval for the regression line, rather than a
prediction interval for a future observation.

B.4 Validation of procedures by a sample calculation

The data given in Table 3, analysed in 5.2.6 and summarized in Table 4, are extended for the sample
calculation of confidence intervals.
Quantities and variances:
B = −1,469 × 10−5
A = 4,667 3 × 10−5
at 50 years
σn2 = 4,046 6 × 10−5
σε2 = 1,160 1 × 10−4
The estimated values for LCL and LPL are given in Table B.1 (see Table 4).


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 ISO 10928:2024(en)

Table B.1 — Estimated values, Vm, LCL and LPL for V

Time, T
Vm LCL LPL
h
0,1 45,76 43,86 42,83
1 42,39 41,05 39,93
10 39,28 38,41 37,16
100 36,39 35,91 34,53
1 000 33,71 33,41 32,03
10 000 31,23 30,79 29,63
100 000 28,94 28,26 27,36
438 000 27,55 26,74 25,98


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 ISO 10928:2024(en)

Bibliography

[1] ISO 7509, Plastics piping systems — Glass-reinforced thermosetting plastics (GRP) pipes — Determination
of time to failure under sustained internal pressure
[2] ISO 10468, Glass-reinforced thermosetting plastics (GRP) pipes — Determination of the ring creep
properties under wet or dry conditions
[3] ISO 10471, Glass-reinforced thermosetting plastics (GRP) pipes — Determination of the long-term
ultimate bending strain and the long-term ultimate relative ring deflection under wet conditions
[4] ISO 10952, Glass-reinforced thermosetting plastics (GRP) pipes and fittings — Determination of the
resistance to chemical attack for the inside of a section in a deflected condition
[5] ASTM D 2992, Standard practice for obtaining hydrostatic or pressure design basis “Fibreglass” (Glass-
fiber-reinforced-thermosetting-resin) pipe and fittings


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ICS 23.040.20; 23.040.45
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