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Lecture 7 Continuous Probability Distribution

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33 views30 pages

Lecture 7 Continuous Probability Distribution

Uploaded by

Sayeeda Jahan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Introduction to

Statistics

Sayeeda Jahan

Spring 2021
Chapter 6
Continuous Probability Distributions
 Uniform Probability Distribution
 Normal Probability Distribution
 Exponential Probability Distribution
f(x)

x

Continuous Probability Distributions

 A continuous random variable can assume any value


in an interval on the real line or in a collection of
intervals.
 It is not possible to talk about the probability of the
random variable assuming a particular value.
 Instead, we talk about the probability of the random
variable assuming a value within a given interval.
 The probability of the random variable assuming a
value within some given interval from x1 to x2 is
defined to be the area under the graph of the
probability density function between x1 and x2.
Uniform Probability Distribution

 A random variable is uniformly distributed


whenever the probability is proportional to the
interval’s length.
 Uniform Probability Density Function

f(x) = 1/(b - a) for a < x < b


=0 elsewhere

where: a = smallest value the variable can assume


b = largest value the variable can assume
Uniform Probability Distribution

 Expected Value of x

E(x) = (a + b)/2

 Variance of x

Var(x) = (b - a)2/12

where: a = smallest value the variable can assume


b = largest value the variable can assume
Example: Slater's Buffet

 Uniform Probability Distribution


Slater customers are charged for the amount of
salad they take. Sampling suggests that the amount
of salad taken is uniformly distributed between 5
ounces and 15 ounces.
The probability density function is
f(x) = 1/10 for 5 < x < 15
=0 elsewhere
where:
x = salad plate filling weight
Example: Slater's Buffet

 Uniform Probability Distribution


for Salad Plate Filling Weight

f(x)

1/10

x
5 10 15
Salad Weight (oz.)
Example: Slater's Buffet

 Uniform Probability Distribution


What is the probability that a customer will
take between 12 and 15 ounces of salad?

f(x)

P(12 < x < 15) = 1/10(3) = .3


1/10

x
5 10 12 15
Salad Weight (oz.)
Example: Slater's Buffet

 Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2
= (5 + 15)/2
= 10
 Variance of x
Var(x) = (b - a)2/12
= (15 – 5)2/12
= 8.33
Normal Probability Distribution

 The normal probability distribution is the most


important distribution for describing a continuous
random variable.
 It has been used in a wide variety of applications:
• Heights and weights of people
• Test scores
• Scientific measurements
• Amounts of rainfall
 It is widely used in statistical inference
Normal Probability Distribution

 Normal Probability Density Function

1  ( x   )2 / 2 2
f ( x)  e
2 

where:
 = mean
 = standard deviation
 = 3.14159
e = 2.71828
Normal Probability Distribution

 Graph of the Normal Probability Density Function

f(x)

x

Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics of the Normal Probability


Distribution
• The distribution is symmetric, and is often
illustrated as a bell-shaped curve.
• Two parameters,  (mean) and  (standard
deviation), determine the location and shape of
the distribution.
• The highest point on the normal curve is at the
mean, which is also the median and mode.
• The mean can be any numerical value: negative,
zero, or positive.
… continued
Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics of the Normal Probability


Distribution
• The standard deviation determines the width of
the curve: larger values result in wider, flatter
curves.
 = 10

 = 50
Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics of the Normal Probability Distribution


• The total area under the curve is 1 (.5 to the left of
the mean and .5 to the right).
• Probabilities for the normal random variable are
given by areas under the curve.
Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics of the Normal Probability


Distribution
• 68.26% of values of a normal random variable are
within +/- 1 standard deviation of its mean.
• 95.44% of values of a normal random variable are
within +/- 2 standard deviations of its mean.
• 99.72% of values of a normal random variable are
within +/- 3 standard deviations of its mean.
Standard Normal Probability Distribution

 A random variable that has a normal distribution


with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one
is said to have a standard normal probability
distribution.
 The letter z is commonly used to designate this
normal random variable.
 Converting to the Standard Normal Distribution
x
z

 We can think of z as a measure of the number of


standard deviations x is from .
Example: Pep Zone

 Standard Normal Probability Distribution


Pep Zone sells auto parts and supplies including a
popular multi-grade motor oil. When the stock of this
oil drops to 20 gallons, a replenishment order is placed.
The store manager is concerned that sales are being
lost due to stockouts while waiting for an order. It has
been determined that leadtime demand is normally
distributed with a mean of 15 gallons and a standard
deviation of 6 gallons.
The manager would like to know the probability of a
stockout, P(x > 20).
Example: Pep Zone

 Standard Normal Probability Distribution


The Standard Normal table shows an area of .2967 for
the region between the z = 0 and z = .83 lines below.
The shaded tail area is .5 - .2967 = .2033. The
probability of a stock- out is .2033.

z = (x - )/ Area = .2967


= (20 - 15)/6
= .83 Area = .5 - .2967
= .2033

Area = .5
z
0 .83
Example: Pep Zone

 Using the Standard Normal Probability Table


z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
.0 .0000 .0040 .0080 .0120 .0160 .0199 .0239 .0279 .0319 .0359
.1 .0398 .0438 .0478 .0517 .0557 .0596 .0636 .0675 .0714 .0753
.2 .0793 .0832 .0871 .0910 .0948 .0987 .1026 .1064 .1103 .1141
.3 .1179 .1217 .1255 .1293 .1331 .1368 .1406 .1443 .1480 .1517
.4 .1554 .1591 .1628 .1664 .1700 .1736 .1772 .1808 .1844 .1879

.5 .1915 .1950 .1985 .2019 .2054 .2088 .2123 .2157 .2190 .2224
.6 .2257 .2291 .2324 .2357 .2389 .2422 .2454 .2486 .2518 .2549
.7 .2580 .2612 .2642 .2673 .2704 .2734 .2764 .2794 .2823 .2852
.8 .2881 .2910 .2939 .2967 .2995 .3023 .3051 .3078 .3106 .3133
.9 .3159 .3186 .3212 .3238 .3264 .3289 .3315 .3340 .3365 .3389
Example: Pep Zone

 Standard Normal Probability Distribution


If the manager of Pep Zone wants the probability of a
stockout to be no more than .05, what should the
reorder point be?

Area = .05

Area = .5 Area = .45


0 z.05
Let z.05 represent the z value cutting the .05 tail area.
Example: Pep Zone

 Using the Standard Normal Probability Table


We now look-up the .4500 area in the Standard
Normal Probability table to find the corresponding
z.05 value.
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
. . . . . . . . . . .
1.5 .4332 .4345 .4357 .4370 .4382 .4394 .4406 .4418 .4429 .4441
1.6 .4452 .4463 .4474 .4484 .4495 .4505 .4515 .4525 .4535 .4545
1.7 .4554 .4564 .4573 .4582 .4591 .4599 .4608 .4616 .4625 .4633
1.8 .4641 .4649 .4656 .4664 .4671 .4678 .4686 .4693 .4699 .4706
1.9 .4713 .4719 .4726 .4732 .4738 .4744 .4750 .4756 .4761 .4767
. . . . . . . . . . .
z.05 = 1.645 is a reasonable estimate.
Example: Pep Zone

 Standard Normal Probability Distribution


The corresponding value of x is given by
x =  + z.05
= 15 + 1.645(6)
= 24.87
A reorder point of 24.87 gallons will place the
probability of a stockout during leadtime at .05.
Perhaps Pep Zone should set the reorder point at
25 gallons to keep the probability under .05.
Exponential Probability Distribution

 The exponential probability distribution is useful in


describing the time it takes to complete a task.
 The exponential random variables can be used to
describe:
• Time between vehicle arrivals at a toll booth
• Time required to complete a questionnaire
• Distance between major defects in a highway
Exponential Probability Distribution

 Exponential Probability Density Function


1
f ( x)  e  x /  for x > 0,  > 0

where:  = mean
e = 2.71828
Exponential Probability Distribution

 Cumulative Exponential Distribution Function

P ( x  x0 )  1  e  xo / 
where:
x0 = some specific value of x
Example: Al’s Carwash

 Exponential Probability Distribution


The time between arrivals of cars at Al’s
Carwash follows an exponential probability
distribution with a mean time between arrivals of 3
minutes. Al would like to know the probability that
the time between two successive arrivals will be 2
minutes or less.

P(x < 2) = 1 - 2.71828-2/3 = 1 - .5134 = .4866


Example: Al’s Carwash

 Graph of the Probability Density Function


f(x)

.4
.3 P(x < 2) = area = .4866

.2
.1
x
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time Between Successive Arrivals (mins.)
Relationship between the Poisson
and Exponential Distributions

(If) the Poisson distribution


provides an appropriate description
of the number of occurrences
per interval

(If) the exponential distribution


provides an appropriate description
of the length of the interval
between occurrences
End of Chapter 6

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