Chapter 5 Some Probability Distribution

Topic: Binomial Distribution: A Discrete Distribution

The Binomial Distribution is an example of a discrete probability distribution, which

is often encountered in practice. In the games of chance terminology, an outcome of
interest is called a “success”, otherwise it is called a “failure”.

There are many such type of trials that can be repeated any number of times and
whose result can be dichotomized into two mutually exclusive outcomes. These trials are
called binomial trials and the whole process is called a binomial experiment.

A binomial experiment possesses the following characteristics:

• The experiment consists of n repeated trials.

• Each trial results in one of two mutually exclusive outcomes that may be
classified as either a “success” or a “failure”.
• The probability of a success in one trial, denoted by p, remains constant
from trial to trial.
• The repeated trials are independent.

The random variable X is a binomial random variable and its probability

distribution, called the binomial probability distribution, is described mathematically by the
following equation:

 C p x qn− x = n!
n x p x qn− x for x = 0,1 , 2 ,, n
P ( X = x ) = b( x; n, p) =  x! (n − x )! (6.3)
0 otherwise


where n = number of trials;

p = probability of success;
q = 1 − p = probability of failure;
x = number of successes.

Example 1: Find the probability of obtaining exactly three 2's if an ordinary die is tossed
5 times.

Solution: Let X be the random variable which represents the number of 2’s on the face
of an ordinary die. Let p be the probability that the number 2 on the face of the
die will occur in one trial. Thus, p = 16 and q = 1 − 16 = 56 . Hence, the probability
of getting exactly three 2's , with n = 5 and x = 3 is

P ( X = 3) = b (3 ; 5, 1 )= 5 C 3 ( 1 ) 3 ( 5 ) 2 = 0.03215
6 6 6
Example 2: Find the probability of getting at least 4 heads in 6 tosses of a fair coin.

Solution: Let X be the number of heads and let p be the probability of getting a head in
one toss. Thus, p = 12 and q = 1 − 1 = 1 . With n = 6 and x = 4, 5 and 6, the
2 2
probability of getting at least 4 heads is:

P ( X  4) = P ( X = 4) + P ( X = 5) + P ( X = 6)
= b (4; 6, 1 ) + b (5; 6, 1 ) + b (6; 6, 1 )
2 2 2
1 4 1
=6 C4 ( ) ( ) 6 − 4 + 6 C5 ( ) ( )6 − 5 + 6 C6 (1 )6 (1 )6 − 6
1 5 1
2 2 2 2 2 2
=0.234375 + 0.09375 + 0.015625
=0.34375.

Example 3 A multiple-choice quiz has 10 questions, each with four possible answers of
which only one is the correct answer. What is the probability that sheer guesswork would
yield at most 1 correct answer?
Solution: Let X be the number of correct answers and let p be the probability of getting a
correct answer. Thus, p = 14 and q = 1 − 14 = 43 . Hence, the probability of getting
at most 1 correct answer, with n = 10 and x = 0 and 1 is:
P ( X  1) = P ( X = 0) + P ( X = 1) = b(0 ;10, 1 ) + b(1 ; 10, 1 )
4 4
1 0 3
=10 C 0 ( ) ( ) 10 − 0 + 10 C1 ( )1 ( 3 )10 −1
1
4 4 4 4
=0.05631 + 0.18771
=0.24402

Example 4 If 20% of the bolts produced by a machine are defective, determine the
probability that out of 4 bolts chosen at random,
a.) exactly 3 are defective.
b.) at least 3 are defective.
c.) 2 bolts are non-defective.
d.) at most 1 is non-defective.

Solution: Let X be the number of defective bolts drawn out of n = 4 bolts,

p = probability of getting a defective bolt =20%=0.20 and
q = probability of getting non-defective bolt = 1− p = 1 − 0.20 = 0.80

a.) The probability that exactly 3 bolts are defective is

P ( X = 3) = b(3 ; 4,0.2)= 4 C 3 (0.2) 3 (0.8) 4 − 3 = 0.0256

b.) and c.) Exercise

d.) The event of choosing “at most 1 non-defective” means that 0 or 1 non-defective
is chosen. In this case, the random variable Y is the number of non-defective
 items chosen, and has probabilities of success and failure as follows:
p = 80% = 0.8 and q = 1 − p = 1 − 0.8 = 0.2 . Hence,

P (Y  1) = P (Y = 1) + P (Y = 0) = b(1 ;4, 0.8) + b(0 ; 4, 0.8)

= 4 C1 (0.8)1 (0.2) 4 −1 + 4 C 0 (0.8) 0 (0.2) 4 −0
=0.00256 + 0.0016
=0.0272

Remark: The mean, variance, and standard deviation of a binomially distributed

random variable are given by  = np ;  2 = npq and  = npq , respectively.

Example 5 The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood disease is 0.4. If 15
people are known to have contracted this disease, find the mean and standard deviation
of the number of recoveries among 15 patients.

Solution: Let X be the number of patients that survive. The probability p of survival is
0.40 and the probability of non-survival is 0.60. With n = 15 , the mean and
standard deviation of X is given by:

 = (15)(0.40) = 6 and  = (15)(0.40)(0.60) = 3.6 = 1.897 .

Exercises:

1. Suppose you know that 80% of the people applying for a certain job had no
previous experience in this job. You select a random sample of 5 current
applicants. What is the probability that 3 has no previous experience in the job?

2. The manager of a restaurant claims that only 3% of the customers are dissatisfied
with the service. If this claim is true, what is the probability that in a random sample
of 25 customers,

a.) none is dissatisfied? c.) at most one is dissatisfied?

b.) at least one is satisfied?

3. An insurance salesman sells policies to 5 men, all of identical age and in good
health. According to the actuarial tables the probability that a man of this particular
age will be alive in 30 years hence is 23 . Find the probability that in 30 years
a.) 5 men will be alive; c.) only 2 men will be alive;
b.) at least 3 men will be alive; d.) at least one man will be alive.
Other Discrete Distributions
Topic: Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution is a type of discrete probability that is useful in

describing the number of events that will occur in a specific period of time or in a specific
area or volume.

A Poisson distribution possesses the following characteristics:

1. The experiment consists of counting the number of times a certain event occurs
during a given unit of time, in a given area, volume, weight, distance, or any other
unit of measurement.
2. The probability that an event occurs in a given unit of time, area, or volume is the
same for all the units.
3. The number of events that occur in one unit of time, area, or volume is independent
of the number that occurs in other units.
4. The mean number of events in each unit will be denoted by lambda, λ = np.

The Poisson probability provides an approximation to the binomial probability

distribution with mean, λ = np when the probability of success, p, is very small and the
number of trials, n, is large.

The random variable X is said to follow the Poisson probability distribution if it has the
probability function:

e - l lx
P( x) = , for x = 0, 1,2,...
x!
where

P(x) = the probability of x successes over a given period of time or space, given 
𝜆 = the expected number of successes per time or space unit;  > 0
e = 2.71828 (the base for natural logarithms)

The mean and variance of the Poisson probability distribution are:

µx = E ( X ) = l and s x2 = E[( X - µ) 2 ] = l
Example 1: On average a call centre receives 1.75 phone calls per minute.

a) Assuming a Poisson distribution, find the probability that the number of phone
calls received in a randomly chosen minute is:
i) exactly 4;
ii) no more than 2.

b) Find the probability that 6 phone calls are received in a 4-minute period.
Example 2: If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in a 500-page
manuscript, find the probability that a given page contains exactly 3 errors.

Exercise: A sales firm receives, on average, 3 calls per hour on its toll-free number. For
any given hour, find the probability that it will receive the following.

a) At most 3 calls c) 5 or more calls

b) At least 3 calls