Counting and Probability Handout

ThePuzzlr
AMC 10 Crash Course

1 Counting Strategies
1. Constructive Counting. Oftentimes counting problems can be solved
through constructive counting, or thinking about how to construct an ex-
ample of what you are counting. For instance, if you must count the
number of ways to put some objects in some boxes with specific restric-
tions, considering how to construct one way to put the objects in the boxes
can lead you to a solution.
2. Casework Counting. Sometimes the best way to count something is to
group all of the possibilities into non-overlapping categories, called cases,
count the number of possibilities in each case, and finally add up those
numbers. For example, if you must count the number of arrangements of
objects that satisfy many odd restrictions which make direct constructive
counting impossible, casework counting with cases based on which object
comes first in the arrangement may help.

3. Complementary Counting. Many times when directly counting what

you wish to count fails, it might help to count what you do not wish to
count. As a concrete example, if you must count the number of three-digit
numbers that do contain the digit 0, directly counting that with construc-
tive counting or casework counting could take a long time. However, you
can instead easily count the number of three-digit numbers that do not
contain the digit 0 and subtract that from the total number of three-digit
numbers to solve the problem.

2 The Fundamental Principle of Counting

Example 2.1. An outfit consists of one hat, one shirt, one pair of pants, and one
pair of shoes. Given there are two hats, three shirts, three pairs of pants, and
four pairs of shoes to choose from, how many different outfits are possible?
Solution 2.1. Let us use constructive counting here: consider how to construct
one outfit. Namely, first of all, there are 2 ways to choose which hat to wear.
Then, for each of those 2 choices, there are 3 ways to choose which shirt to wear,

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so there are 2 · 3 ways to choose a hat and a shirt. After this, for each of the
2 · 3 hat-shirt combinations, there are 3 ways to choose which pair of pants to
wear, so there are 2 · 3 · 3 choices for a hat-shirt-pants combination. Finally, for
each of the 2 · 3 · 3 hat-shirt-pants combinations, there are 4 ways to choose a
pair of shoes, so there are 2 · 3 · 3 · 4 = 72 hat-shirt-pants-shoes combinations,
or 72 outfits possible.
This example illustrates a powerful fact called The Fundamental Principle
of Counting, namely, that:
Theorem 1 (The Fundamental Principle of Counting). The number of ways a
series of independent events can occur is equal to the product of the numbers
of ways that each of the events can occur.
Independent events in this case are events that do not affect one other, and
in the example above, picking a hat, picking a shirt, picking a pair of pants, and
picking a pair of shoes were all independent events. Then, just as we multiplied
2 · 3 · 3 · 4 to obtain the number of outfits, we can apply our logic in the problem
above to any other series of independent events, which gives us The Fundamental
Principle of Counting.

3 Factorials, Permutations, and Combinations

3.1 Factorials
Example 3.1. How many ways are there to arrange 5 objects in a line?
Solution 3.1. First, notice that we cannot directly use the Fundamental Princi-
ple of Counting here. Indeed, choosing the first object in the line and choosing
the second are not independent events, since what we choose to be first in the
line does affect what we choose to be second in the line – we cannot choose the
first object again!
Thus, let us simply use constructive counting. Specifically, there are 5 ways
to choose the first object in the line. Then, for each of those 5 ways, there are
4 objects left to be second in the line, so there are 4 ways to choose the second
object in the line. Similarly, no matter what two objects we choose first, there
will always be 3 objects left to be third in the line, after which there will always
be 2 objects left to be fourth in the line, and of course 1 object left to be last
in the line.
Therefore, and this is essential, notice that although the events them-
selves of choosing the objects to put in the line are not independent,
the numbers of ways each of those events can occur are independent
from each other. So, we can still multiply the numbers of ways that each of
the events can occur to obtain the total number of ways that all of the events
can occur. In this problem, that gives us 5 · 4 · 3 · 2 · 1 = 120 ways to arrange
the 5 objects in a line.
Theorem 2. For any positive integer n, there are n(n − 1)(n − 2) · · · 1 ways to
arrange n objects in a line.

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Proof. This theorem can be proven with the same logic used to solve Example
3.1.
The expression n(n − 1)(n − 2) · · · 1 appears so much in counting problems
and discrete mathematics in general that there is a special notation for it, the
factorial:

Definition 3.1. Let n!, read ”n factorial”, denote n(n − 1)(n − 2) · · · 1 for any
positive integer n.
Therefore, n! is the number of ways to arrange n objects in a line, where n is a
positive integer. Furthermore, we conveniently and conventionally define 0! = 1,
since there is 1 way to arrange 0 objects in a line, which is to do nothing! This
definition of 0! also works nicely with permutations and combinations, which we
will look at next.

3.2 Permutations
Theorem 3 (Permutations). Denote n Pr for nonnegative integers n and r, read
”n permute r”, as the number of ways to arrange r of n objects in a line, or, in
other words, the number of ways to permute r of the n objects. Then,
n!
n Pr = = n(n − 1) · · · (n − r + 1). (1)
(n − r)!

Proof. We can prove the theorem above using constructive counting. Namely,
there are n ways to choose the first object in the line, n − 1 ways to choose
the second object, and so on, until there are n − r + 1 ways to choose the rth
object in the line. Thus, there are n(n − 1) · · · (n − r + 1) ways to permute r
of the n objects. Finally, if we wish, we can rewrite n(n − 1) · · · (n − r + 1) as
n(n−1)···1 n!
(n−r)(n−r−1)···1 , or (n−r)! .

3.3 Combinations
Example 3.2. How many ways are there to choose 3 objects out of 6?
Solution 3.2. Firstly, to make the problem more concrete, let A, B, C, D, E,
and F be the 6 objects, of which we wish to choose 3. Now, notice that
the answer is not 6 P3 . This is because 6 P3 describes the number of ways to
permute 3 objects given 6, so order matters: a permutation of A, then B, then
C is different from a permutation of B, then A, then C. On the other hand,
there is only one way to choose A, B, and C. In other words, order does not
matter in this problem.
In fact, and this is key, for every 1 unordered combination of three
objects, there are 3! ways to order, or permute, them, so there are
3! = 6 corresponding permutations with the same three objects. For in-
stance, the combination A, B, C has 6 permutations: A, B, C; A, C, B; B, A, C;
B, C, A; C, A, B; and C, B, A.

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 6!
Then, since there are 6 P3 = (6−3)! ways to permute 3 objects given 6 objects,
P3 6!
and for every 3! permutations, there is 1 combination, there are 63! = 3!(6−3)! =
20 ways to choose 3 objects out of 6 objects.
 
n
Theorem 4 (Combinations). Denote n Cr or for nonnegative integers n
r
and r, read ”n pick r” or ”n choose r”, as the number of ways to choose r
objects out of n objects, or, in other words, the number of combinations of r
objects given the n objects. Then,
 
n n!
n Cr = = . (2)
r r!(n − r)!

Proof. We proceed similarly to Solution 3.2. Namely, note that for every un-
ordered combination of r objects, there are r! ways to permute those objects,
so there are r! corresponding permutations. Then, for every r! permutations,
n!
there is 1 combination, and since there are n Pr = (n−r)! permutations, there
n Pr n!
are r! = r!(n−r)! combinations, as desired.

4 Basic Combinatorics
Combinatorics is the study of combinations. Here we will note some basic
identities of combinations and their relationships with Pascal’s Triangle.

4.1 Two Identities

Theorem 5. For nonnegative integers n and r where r ≤ n,
   
n n
= . (3)
r n−r

Proof. We will present two proofs, an algebra argument and a counting argu-
ment, as follows:

Algebra Argument: Note that, from Theorem 4,

 
n n!
= (4)
r r!(n − r)!

and
 
n n!
= (5)
n−r (n − r)!(n − (n − r))!
n!
= . (6)
r!(n − r)!

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Thus, we can combine (1) and (3) to give
   
n n
= , (7)
r n−r
as desired.

Counting Argument: Let us count the number of ways to choose r objects

out of n objects with two different perspectives.Now, on the one hand, we can
n
directly choose r objects out of the n objects in ways by definition. On the
r
other hand, however, and this is crucial, we can equivalently select the n−r
objects out of the n objects
 that will not be in the combination of r
n
objects, which gives us ways. Nonetheless, both methods to choose
n−r
r objects out of the n objects should yield the same number of combinations.
Thus,    
n n
= , (8)
r n−r
as desired.
Theorem 6 (Pascal’s Identity). For nonnegative integers n and r where r < n,
     
n n n+1
+ = . (9)
r r+1 r+1
Proof. Similar
 to the above theorem, there is an algebra argument which uses
n n!
Theorem 4’s = r!(n−r)! . We will omit it here, however, in favor of a more
r
elegant counting approach, presented below.

Let us choose r + 1 objects out of n + 1 objects – which we will call

O1 , O2 , · · · , On+1 – and similar to the counting argument above, we  will con-

n+1
sider two different perspectives. Namely, on the one hand, there are
r+1
combinations by definition. Importantly, though, another way to choose the
r + 1 objects is to either first choose O1 as one of the r + 1 objects, or
not choose O1 . Then, if we choose O1 as one of the r + 1 objects, we must  
n
choose r more objects out of the n remaining ones, which we can do in
r
ways. On the other hand, if we do not choose O1 as one of the r + 1 objects,
then we must  choose
 r + 1 more objects out of the  n remaining
  ones, which we
n n n
can do in ways. This gives us a total of + ways to choose
r+1 r r+1
r + 1 out of the n + 1 objects. Both methods to choose the r + 1 objects should
give the same number of combinations, however, so
     
n n n+1
+ = , (10)
r r+1 r+1

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as desired.

4.2 Pascal’s Triangle

4.2.1 The Triangle

1
1 1
1 2 1
1 3 3 1
1 4 6 4 1
1 5 10 10 5 1
···

Let us generate the above triangle of numbers as follows. First, let us begin
with two diagonals of 1’s, one sloping down and to the left, the other sloping
down and to the right, both starting with a top-most 1. Then, we can repeatedly
take any two adjacent numbers in one row, add them, and write that sum in
the next row beneath those two numbers. For example, for the row with the
numbers ”1 1”, we can add the two 1’s to give a 2 in the middle of the next
row. Then, we can add that 2 to the adjacent 1’s to yield 3’s in the row below,
and the adjacent numbers in ”1 3 3 1” to give the row below that, and so on.
This is mathematically playful enough, but what is extremely interesting is
that we can rewrite the triangle entirely in terms of combinations:

 
0
0
   
1 1
0 1
     
2 2 2
0 1 2
       
3 3 3 3
0 1 2 3
         
4 4 4 4 4
0 1 2 3 4
           
5 5 5 5 5 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
···

See if you 
canprove
 why
 this is true with our two identities from above, and
n n
the fact that = = 1 for all nonnegative integers n.
0 n

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4.2.2 The Significance of Pascal’s Triangle
Pascal’s Triangle is accredited to the French mathematician Blaise Pascal, al-
though, as is tradition in mathematics, it was invented much earlier than Pas-
cal’s time by Eastern cultures.
The reason, though, for why we even name this triangle at all, is not only
because it gives us an elegant way to visualize combinations, but since there
are numerous patterns among the numbers in the triangle that lead directly to
combinatoric identities. Here are a few examples:

1. Add the numbers in each row of the triangle. What do you notice? How
can you formulate this in terms of combinations? Can you prove this
pattern always holds?
2. Alternate adding and subtracting the numbers in each row of the triangle.
For example, compute 1 − 1, 1 − 2 + 1, 1 − 3 + 3 − 1, 1 − 4 + 6 − 4 + 1,
and so on. What do you notice? How can you formulate this in terms of
combinations? Can you prove this pattern always holds?
3. Compute some powers of 11 and compare them with the rows of the tri-
angle. What do you notice? Can you prove this pattern always holds?

5 Probability
5.1 Basic Probability
Probability, in simple terms, is the likelihood of an event, such as raining tomor-
row, to occur, measured from 0 to 1. Namely, a probability of 0 indicates that
an event will almost certainly not occur, while a probability of 1 indicates that
an event will almost certainly occur. Furthermore, if we denote an event as E,
the probability of E occurring is denoted P (E).
For such an intuitive concept, however, probability is extremely difficult to
define rigorously, calling for measure theory concepts. Thus, to begin, we usually
think about probability as follows:
number of equally likely successful outcomes in event E
P (E) = . (11)
number of equally likely possible outcomes
The ”outcomes” here refer to the individual possibilities of a scenario such as
rolling a die; an outcome of rolling a die is rolling a 1. (And yes, this is a circular
definition of probability since it relies on these ”equally likely” outcomes, which
in turn references probability, but as we said, defining probability rigorously
requires more advanced tools than we need to or even could cover here.)
Example 5.1. Sally randomly (i.e., without bias towards one outcome or an-
other) selects one marble out of a bag which contains a red marble, a green
marble, and a blue marble. What is the probability that the marble Sally se-
lects is blue?

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Solution 5.1. There is 1 successful outcome, the one in which Sally selects the
blue marble, while there are 3 possible outcomes, one for each marble being
selected. Note that all these outcomes are equally likely since Sally randomly
selects a marble. Therefore, the probability that Sally selects the blue marble
is 13 .

5.2 Basic Probability Theory

Definition 5.1 (Mutually Exclusive Events). Let A and B be mutually ex-
clusive events if the two events do not share any outcomes. For example, the
events of rolling a 1 on a die and of rolling a 2 are mutually exclusive.
Definition 5.2 (Independent Events). Let A and B be independent events if
the two do not affect each other. (These are the same independent events as
those in The Fundamental Principle of Counting.) For instance, flipping a head
on a coin one time is independent of flipping a head on the coin another time.
Definition 5.3 (Union of Events). If A and B are events, define the union of
A and B, denoted A ∪ B and read ”A union B”, as the event where either A
or B occurs. For example, the union of the events of rolling a 1 on a die and of
rolling a 2 on the die is the event of rolling a 1 or a 2 on the die. (We can also
more broadly define the union of two sets, or collections of objects, but that is
a story for another day.)
Definition 5.4 (Intersection of Events). If A and B are events, define the
intersection of A and B, denoted A ∩ B and read ”A intersect B”, as the event
where both A and B occur. For instance, the intersection of the events of flipping
a head on a coin one time and of flipping a head on the coin another time is
the event of flipping heads on the coin twice. (Similar to the union of events,
we can also more broadly define the intersection of two sets, but again, that is
a story for another day.)
Theorem 7. Given mutually exclusive events A and B,

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B). (12)

For example, the probability of rolling a 1 or a 2 on a die is equal to the

probability of rolling a 1 plus the probability of rolling a 2.
Theorem 8. Given events A and B,

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B). (13)

For instance, the probability of rolling a 1 on a die or flipping a head on a coin

is the probability of rolling a 1 plus the probability of flipping a head minus the
probability of rolling a 1 and flipping a head.
Theorem 9. Given independent events A and B,

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) · P (B). (14)

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For example, the probability of rolling a head on a coin twice is the probability
of rolling a head on the coin on time multiplied by the probability of rolling a
head a second time.
We cannot prove these theorems without a more rigorous grasp on proba-
bility, but hopefully they are intuitively clear.

5.3 Geometric Probability

So far, we have only considered discrete events, which have finitely many out-
comes. However, there are many events which are continuous: they have in-
finitely many outcomes. As an example, choosing a real number between 0 and
0.5 is a continuous event since there are infinitely many real numbers between
0 and 0.5.
To analyze these continuous events, we must use a tool that can effectively
measure these infinitely many outcomes: geometry. For instance, in our example
of choosing a real number between 0 and 0.5, we can measure all the outcomes
with the length of 0.5 between 0 and 0.5 on the real number line. Then, to
consider the probability of a continuous event E, we can compute:
geometric measure of equally likely successful outcomes in event E
P (E) = .
geometric measure of equally likely possible outcome
(15)
Example 5.2. Mark shoots at a circular dartboard of radius 3. Given that Mark
randomly hits a point on the dartboard, what is the probability Mark hits the
circular bull’s-eye of radius 1?
Solution 5.2. Notice that the area of the equally likely successful outcomes, the
area of the bull’s-eye, is π(1)2 = π, while the area of the equally likely possible
outcomes, the area of the entire dartboard, is π(3)2 = 9π, so the probability in
π
question is 9π = 19 .

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