MAPHL exponential [67 marks]
1. [Maximum mark: 27] EXM.3.AHL.TZ0.9
In this question you will explore possible models for the spread of an infectious disease
An infectious disease has begun spreading in a country. The National Disease
Control Centre (NDCC) has compiled the following data after receiving alerts
from hospitals.
A graph of n against d is shown below.
The NDCC want to find a model to predict the total number of people infected,
so they can plan for medicine and hospital facilities. After looking at the data,
they think an exponential function in the form n = ab
d
could be used as a
model.
(a) Use an exponential regression to find the value of a and of b,
correct to 4 decimal places. [3]
Use your answer to part (a) to predict
(b.i) the number of new people infected on day 6. [3]
(b.ii) the day when the total number of people infected will be
greater than 1000. [2]
The NDCC want to verify the accuracy of these predictions. They decide to
perform a χ2 goodness of fit test.
(c) Use your answer to part (a) to show that the model predicts 16.7
people will be infected on the first day. [1]
The predictions given by the model for the first five days are shown in the table.
(d.i) Explain why the number of degrees of freedom is 2. [2]
(d.ii) Perform a χ2 goodness of fit test at the 5% significance level.
You should clearly state your hypotheses, the p-value, and your
conclusion. [5]
In fact, the first day when the total number of people infected is greater than
1000 is day 14, when a total of 1015 people are infected.
(e) Give two reasons why the prediction in part (b)(ii) might be
lower than 14. [2]
Based on this new data, the NDCC decide to try a logistic model in the form
.
L
n = −kd
1+ce
Use the data from days 1–5, together with day 14, to find the value of
(f.i) L. [2]
(f.ii) c. [1]
(f.iii) k. [1]
(g) Hence predict the total number of people infected by this
disease after several months. [2]
(h) Use the logistic model to find the day when the rate of increase
of people infected is greatest. [3]
2. [Maximum mark: 12] 23M.2.AHL.TZ2.2
A scientist is conducting an experiment on the growth of a certain species of
bacteria.
The population of the bacteria, P , can be modelled by the function
P (t) = 1200 × k ,t
t
≥ 0,
where t is the number of hours since the experiment began, and k is a positive
constant.
(a.i) Write down the value of P (0). [1]
(a.ii) Interpret what this value means in this context. [1]
3 hours after the experiment began, the population of the bacteria is 18 750.
(b) Find the value of k. [2]
(c) Find the population of the bacteria 1 hour and 30 minutes
after the experiment began. [2]
The scientist conducts a second experiment with a different species of bacteria.
The population of this bacteria, S , can be modelled by the function
,t ≥ 0,
t
S(t) = 5000 × 1. 65
where t is the number of hours since both experiments began.
(d) Find the value of t when the two populations of bacteria are
equal. [2]
It takes 2 hours and m minutes for the number of bacteria in the second
experiment to reach 19 000.
(e) Find the value of m, giving your answer as an integer value. [4]
3. [Maximum mark: 8] 22M.1.AHL.TZ1.12
The strength of earthquakes is measured on the Richter magnitude scale, with
values typically between 0 and 8 where 8 is the most severe.
The Gutenberg–Richter equation gives the average number of earthquakes per
year, N , which have a magnitude of at least M . For a particular region the
equation is
log10 N = a − M , for some a ∈ R.
This region has an average of 100 earthquakes per year with a magnitude of at
least 3.
(a) Find the value of a. [2]
The equation for this region can also be written as N .
b
= M
10
(b) Find the value of b. [2]
Within this region the most severe earthquake recorded had a magnitude of
7. 2.
(c) Find the average number of earthquakes in a year with a
magnitude of at least 7. 2. [1]
The number of earthquakes in a given year with a magnitude of at least 7. 2 can
be modelled by a Poisson distribution, with mean N . The number of
earthquakes in one year is independent of the number of earthquakes in any
other year.
Let Y be the number of years between the earthquake of magnitude 7. 2 and
the next earthquake of at least this magnitude.
(d) Find P(Y > 100). [3]
4. [Maximum mark: 10] EXM.1.AHL.TZ0.15
Adesh wants to model the cooling of a metal rod. He heats the rod and records
its temperature as it cools.
He believes the temperature can be modeled by T (t) = ae
bt
+ 25, where
a, b ∈ R.
(a) Show that ln (T − 25) = bt + ln a. [2]
(b) Find the equation of the regression line of ln (T − 25) on t. [3]
Hence
(c.i) find the value of a and of b. [3]
(c.ii) predict the temperature of the metal rod after 3 minutes. [2]
5. [Maximum mark: 10] EXM.1.AHL.TZ0.15
Adesh wants to model the cooling of a metal rod. He heats the rod and records
its temperature as it cools.
He believes the temperature can be modeled by T (t) = ae
bt
+ 25, where
a, b ∈ R.
(a) Show that ln (T − 25) = bt + ln a. [2]
(b) Find the equation of the regression line of ln (T − 25) on t. [3]
Hence
(c.i) find the value of a and of b. [3]
(c.ii) predict the temperature of the metal rod after 3 minutes. [2]
© International Baccalaureate Organization, 2024
