Handout Valuing Stocks
Handout Valuing Stocks
Ritesh Pandey
September 1, 2023
Table of Contents
A One-Year Investor
0 1
−P0 Div1 + P1
A One-Year Investor
A One-Year Investor
Div1 +P1
Consider the PV of the date 1 cash flows : 1+rE
Div1 +P1
If P0 ≤ 1+rE , the investor will be willing to buy the stock.
Div1 +P1
If P0 ≥ 1+rE , the investor will be willing to sell the stock.
A One-Year Investor
So,
Div1 + P1
P0 = (1)
1 + rE
A One-Year Investor
So, the stock’s total return must equal the equity cost of
capital.
So, the stock’s total return must equal the expected return on
other investments with equivalent risk available in the market .
A One-Year Investor
A One-Year Investor
0.44
Div1 /P0 = 30.82 = 1.43%
A Multi-Year Investor
0 1 2
A Multi-Year Investor
Assume that the equity cost of capital is the same for both
years.
Div1 Div2 + P2
P0 = + (3)
1 + rE (1 + rE )2
A Multi-Year Investor
Does this mean that the two-year investor will value the stock
differently than a one-year investor?
NO. The one-year investor does not care about the year-2 cash
flows directly but he does care about them indirectly as they
affect the price at which he will have to sell the stock at the
end of year-1, P1 .
A Multi-Year Investor
Div1 + P1
P0 = (4)
1 + rE
P1
z }| {
Div1 1 Div + P
2 2
= + (5)
1 + rE 1 + rE 1 + rE
So, for a two-period investor,
Div1 Div2 + P2
P0 = + (6)
1 + rE (1 + rE )2
A Multi-Year Investor
This holds for any N. So, investors with same beliefs will
attach the same value to the stock, irrespective of their
investment horizon.
A Multi-Year Investor
≈
−P0 Div1 Div1 (1 + g ) Div1 (1 + g )2
Div1 $2.36
P0 = = = $39.33 per share.
rE − g 0.075 − 0.015
Then, intuitively,
Earningst
Divt = ×Dividend Payout Ratet (11)
Shares Outstandingt
| {z }
EPSt
Let us assume that it does not issue new shares or buy back its
outstanding shares so that the number of shares outstanding is
constant.
Let us assume that if the firm it does not reinvest its earnings,
the future level of its earnings remains constant at its current
level.
Then, intuitively,
New Investment = Earnings × Retention Rate (12)
And since
Change in Earnings = New Investment × Return on New Investment (13)
We get
Change in Earnings
Earnings Growth Rate = (14)
Earnings
= Retention Rate × Return on New Investment (15)
Note that
Retention Rate (%) = 100 − Payout Rate (%) (16)
Suppose Crane could cut its dividend payout rate to 75% for the
forseeable future and use the retained earnings to open new stores.
The return on its investment in these new stores is expected to be
12%. Assuming its cost of equity is unchanged, what effect would
this new policy have on Crane’s price?
Thus, Crane’s share price should rise from $60 to $64.29 if its
cuts dividends to increase investment and growth, implying the
investment has positive NPV.
Unprofitable Growth
Unprofitable Growth
Its growth under the new policy, given the lower return on
investment, will be g = 25% × 8% = 2%
$4.50
The new share price, P0 = 0.10−0.02 = $56.25
Unprofitable Growth
Thus even though Crane will grow under the new policy, its
investments will have negative NPV.
This is because the new stores earn 8% when its investors could
have earned 10% on other investments with comparable risk.
Assume that the firm starts paying dividends from t = N and these
grow at a constant rate of g .
0 1 2 N N+1 N+2 N+3
DivN+1
PN = (18)
rE − g
And, then,
Div1 Div2 DivN 1 Div
N+1
P0 = + 2
+ ... + N
+ N
(19)
1 + rE (1 + rE ) (1 + rE ) (1 + rE ) rE − g
Small Fry, Inc. has just invented a potato chip that looks and tastes
like a french fry. Given the phenomenal market response to this
product, Small Fry is reinvesting all of its earnings to expand its op-
erations. Earnings were $2 per share this past year and are expected
to grow at a rate of 20% per year until the end of year 4. At that
point, other companies are likely to bring out competing products.
Analysts project that at the end of year 4, Small Fry will cut in-
vestment and begin paying 60% of its earnings as dividends and its
growth will slow to a long-run growth rate of 4%. If Small Fry’s
equity cost of capital is 8%,what is the value of a share today?
Div4 $2.49
Clearly, P3 = rE −g = 0.08−0.04 = $62.25
With this as the terminal value, we can compute current share
price.
Div1 Div2 Div3 P3
P0 = + 2
+ 3
+
1 + rE (1 + rE ) (1 + rE ) (1 + rE )3
$62.25
=
(1.08)3
= $49.42
Table of Contents
In the Total Payout Model, we value all the firm’s equity and not a
single share.
Titan Industries has 217 million shares outstanding and expects earn-
ings at the end of this year of $ 860 million. Titan plans to pay out
50% of its earnings in total, paying 30% as a dividend and using
20% to repurchase shares. If Titan’s earnings are expected to grow
by 7.5% per year and these payout rates remain constant, determine
Titan’s share price assuming an equity cost of capital of 10%.
Total payouts for Titan at the end of this year will include both
dividends and share repurchase payments.
In the DFCF model, we value the entire firm by discounting the cash
flows available (i.e., free) to be paid to both equity and debt
holders by the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) for the
firm.
Free Cash Flow to the Firm: This is the amount of cash left over
with the business that can be used to pay both its lenders and its
equity holders.
Now,
Now, present value of the free cash flows to the firm, the enterprise
value:
V0 = PV (Future Free Cash Flow to the Firm) (25)
, Here, the numerator on the right hand side gives the value of equity
of the firm.
To calculate V0 :
FCF1 FCF2 FCFN + VN
V0 = + 2
+ ... + (27)
1 + rwacc (1 + rwacc ) (1 + rwacc )N
$424.8+100−3
So, per share price today, P2005 = 21million = $24.85
Table of Contents
The law of one price implies that the price of a stock is the present
value of the expected future cash flows that it will provide to its
owner.
When we buy shares, we are buying the right to the firm’s future
earnings.
Firms with a larger scale of earnings are more likely to earn more in
the future too and so we should be willing to pay more for each right
to those earnings.
So, we value a share of the firm by multiplying its current EPS by the
P- E ratio of comparable firms.
That is,
P0
Forward P/E = (29)
EPS1
and
P0
Trailing P/E = (30)
EPS0
Since we are more concerned about future earnings, we prefer the
forward ratio for valuation purposes.
So, for growing firms, trailing multiples tend to be higher. This means
that we should be consistent in our choice of multiple type.
This is because we know that enterprise value represent the total value
of the firm’s underlying business and not just the value of its equity.
V0 FCF1 /EBITDA1
= (38)
EBITDA1 (rwacc − gFCF )
This multiple is higher for firms with high growth rates and low
capital requirements (i.e., where free cash flow is larger in proportion
to EBITDA).
Suppose Rocky Shoes and Boots (RCKY) has earnings per share
of $2.30 and EBITDA of $30.7 million. RCKY also has 5.4 million
shares outstanding and debt of $125 million (net of cash). You believe
Deckers Outdoor Corporation is comparable to RCKY in terms of its
underlying business, but Deckers has no debt. If Deckers has a P/E
of 13.3 and an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 7.4, estimate
the value of RCKY’s shares using both multiples. Which estimate is
likely to be more accurate?
So,
So,
V0
(V0 )RCKY = × (EBITDA)RCKY
EBITDA RCKY
V
0
≈ × (EBITDA)RCKY
EBITDA Deckers
= 7.4 × $30.7
= $227.2million.
Since the two firms have a large difference in their debt levels,
so it is the enterprise value multiple (which values debt also) is
expected to be the more reliable estimate of RCKY’s share
price.
Instead of P-E ratio we may use price to book value per share ratio
(P-B).
Since usually, book value is not a negative number, it can be used for
companies with negative earnings.
Another multiple that can be used for firms with negative earnings is
the price to per share sales (P-S) ratio.