IT1807

Sample Space, Relationships Among Events and Rules of Probability

 Probability is used to describe the experiment. When one event occurs, it is
phenomenon of chance or randomness of simple event. When two or more events occur in
events to occur. It does not deal with a sequence, it is compound event.
guarantees, but with the likelihood of an
occurrence of an event. If we understand how
to calculate probabilities, we can make
thoughtful decisions about random and
unpredictable situations where multiple
outcomes are possible.
o Probabilities sometimes are subjective (aka
theoretical or classical probability) and is
based on past experience and judgment of
the person to determine whether a specific
outcome is likely to occur. It contain no
formal calculations and differ from person
to person, and they contain a high degree
of personal bias. There are several
methods for making subjective probability
assessments:
 Opinion polls can be used to help in
determining subjective probabilities for
possible election returns and potential
political candidates.
 Experience and judgment relate back to
upbringing as well as other events the
person has witnessed throughout his
life. A production manager, for
instance, might believe that the
probability of manufacturing a new
product without a single defect is 0.85.
 In the Delphi method, a panel of
experts is assembled to make their
predictions of the future.
o Other times probabilities are objectively
(aka empirical or experimental probability)
based on examining past data and using
logical and mathematical equations
involving the data to determine the
likelihood of an independent event
occurring.

Probability Formula:

Where:
P(E) – Experiments: refers a situation
involving chance or probability that
produces an event. n(S) – Sample space:
refers to set of all possible outcomes of an
experiment, that is, any subset of the
sample space.
n(E) – Event: refers to one or more of the
possible outcomes of a single trial of an

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Examples:

Experiment Sample Space Event

Select a The set The
student in of students
your class. students in your
in your class
class
Select a {red, black, red,
student in brown, black,
your class blond, brown,
and observe green, ...} blond,
the color of green, ...
his or her
hair.
Choose 2 cars The set of all Collections
(without collections of of 2 cars
regard to 2 cars chosen chosen
order) at from 10 from 10
random from
a fleet of 10.

Simple Event: Probability of getting a Head (H)

when a coin is tossed; Probability of getting 1
when a die is thrown

Compound Event: When two coins are tossed,

probability of getting a Head (H) in the first
toss and getting a Tail (T) in the second toss.

Sample Problem:
A manufacturer inspects 50 computer
monitors and finds that 45 have no defects.
What is the probability that a monitor chose
at random has no defects?

Solution:

Sample Problem:
A survey was taken on 30 classes at a school
to find the total number of left-handed
students in each class. The table below shows
the results:

No. of Left-handed 0 1 2 3 4 5
students
Frequency (no. of 1 2 5 12 8 2
classes)

A class was selected at random. Find the

probability that the class has 2 left-handed
students.

Solution:
The number of possible outcomes is 30.
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Basic Properties of Probabilities Thus, the number of ways a certain event can
 Property 1: The probability, P, of any event or occur
state of nature occurring lies between greater = 4 (because an even number is obtained)
than or equal to 0 or 0% and less than or
equal to 1 or 100%. That is:

 Property 2: The probability of an event will not

be less than 0 because it is not possible
(impossible) or can never occur. That is:

 Property 3: The probability of an event will not

be more than 1 because 1 is certain that
something will happen (sure event). That is:

Sample Problem:
Compute for the following items and place them
on the probability scale.
a. What is the chance of picking a number
between 1 - 8?

Solution:
Sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8}
Thus, the number of possible outcomes = 8
Event: One event of this experiment is
picking the number 4 for instance between 1
to 8.
Thus, the number of ways a certain event can
occur
= 8 (because any number may be pick)

b. What is the chance of picking a number that is

even?

Solution:
Sample space: {1,2,3,4,5,6, 7, 8}
Thus, the number of possible outcomes = 8
Event: {2, 4, 6, 8}

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c. What is the chance of picking the number 1?

Solution:
Sample space: {1,2,3,4,5,6, 7, 8}
Thus, the number of possible outcomes = 8
Event: The number of ways a certain event can
occur
= 1 (because only number 1 is going to be
pick)

The Addition Rule of Probabilities

(Events Involving “OR”)
 Mutually Exclusive (special addition rule) -
The probability that A or B will occur is the
sum of the probability of each event.
 Not Mutually Exclusive (general addition
rule) - The probability that A or B will occur
is the sum of the probabilities of the two
(2) events minus the probability that both
will occur.

The Multiplication Rule of Probabilities

(Events Involving “AND”)
o Independent Event (special multiplication
rule) - Two events are independent if the
occurrence or nonoccurrence of one of the
events does not affect the likelihood that
the other event will occur.

Sample Problem:
A sock drawer contains one pair of socks
with each of the following colors folded
together in a matching set: blue, brown,
red, white, and black. It is an early
morning, you are tired and you randomly
reach into the sock drawer and grab a pair
of socks without looking. The first pair you
pull out is the wrong color, which is red.
You replace this pair and then choose

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another pair of socks. What is the probability
that you will choose the red pair of socks
twice?
Solution:

o Dependent Event (general multiplication rule) -

Two events are dependent if the occurrence
of one event does affect the likelihood that
the other event will occur.

Sample Problem:
There are 6 black pens and 8 blue pens with a
total of 14 pens in a jar. The probability that
you will get a black one when you reach in is:
6/14. But what are your chances of getting a
black one if you reach in again?

Solution:
Clearly, the two events are dependent, since
taking the first pen affected the outcome of the
next attempt. Let A be the event of reaching
the first black pen. Thus,

Out of 14 total number of pens, 6 are black.

Let B be the event of reaching the second
pen. Thus,

One pen is taken, thus, we are left with 13

pens only. Out of the remaining 13 pens left,
5 are black.

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Counting Rules Useful in Probability

Multiplication Principle of Counting
The fundamental principle of counting is often There are a total of 24 meals available.
referred to as the multiplication rule. The
multiplication principle of counting states that:  Permutation is a counting technique which refers

outcomes/ways for event 𝐸1 ; and n2 possible

o If there are n1 possible number of to the arrangement (or ordering) of a set of

number of outcomes/ways for event 𝐸2,then

objects, from first to last, where the order in
which the objects are selected does matter. In a
permutation n different
both events is (n1 ∗ n2) number of
the possible number of outcomes/ways for

outcomes/ways.
This can be generalize to E events, where E is the
number of events. The total number of outcomes
for E events is:
o The multiplication principle of counting only
works when all choices are independent of
each other. If one choice affects another
choice (i.e. depends on another choice), then
a simple multiplication is not right.

Sample Problem:
How many lunches are possible consisting of a
main entrée, fruit, and drink if one can select
from the following?
 a pizza, a sub sandwich, or chicken nuggets
as main entrée;
 a banana, apple, orange, or grapes as fruit;
and
 milk or apple juice as drink.

Solution:
To find the number of lunches that can be serve
with three main entrées, four fruits and two

o 𝐸1 is for main entrées: Since we have three

drinks, the events are described as follows:

main entrées (pizza, sub sandwich and

o 𝐸2 is for fruits: Since we have four fruits

chicken nuggets) we can have n(𝐸1) = 3.

(banana, apple, orange and grapes) we can

o 𝐸3 is for drinks: Since we have two drinks

have n(𝐸2) = 4.

(milk and apple juice) we can have n(𝐸3) = 2.

Each event is independent, thus, by the

multiplication principle, the total number of
dinner is:

# of Total #
# of # of
main of
× fruit × drink =
entré different
𝐸 𝐸3
s s
e combina

𝐸1 ons 𝐸
s 2
ti

3 × 4 × 2 = 24

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objects taken r at a time (where r is a subset
of n), an event cannot repeat.

Permutation Formula:

Where:
n is the number of objects to choose from
r is the number of objects selected

Sample Problem:
There are 12 puppies for sale at the local pet
shop. Four are brown, four are black, three
are spotted, and one is white. What is the
probability that all the brown puppies will be
sold first?

Solution:
Since the order that the puppies are sold is
important, this problem relates to
permutation. Determine n and r
o n is 12; since there are 12 puppies.
o r is 4; since there are 4 varieties of
puppies to choose from (brown, black,
spotted, white)
The number of possible outcomes in the
sample space is the number of permutations
of 12 puppies taken 4 at a time.

There are four brown puppies that can be sold

first. Thus, to find the number of ways to get
the 4 brown puppies in their specific

o 𝐸1 is for first puppy position: Since we

positions, the events are described as follows:

have any of the four puppies in the first

𝐸
puppy position we can have n(𝐸1) = 4.
o 2 is for second puppy position: Since we
have any of the remaining three puppies
in the second puppy position we can have

o 𝐸3 is for third puppy position: Since we

n(𝐸2) = 3.

have either of the remaining two puppies

in the third puppy position we can have

o 𝐸4 is for fourth puppy position: Since we

n(𝐸3) = 2.

have one remaining puppy in the fourth

puppy position we can have n(𝐸4)= 1.

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Total
# of # of # of # of
# of
secon third fourth points
first
× d puppy × puppy = in the
puppy
puppy positio positio sampl
positio
𝐸3 𝐸4
positio n n e
𝐸1
n
𝐸 𝐸
n space

2
4 × 3 2 × 1 = 24

Therefore, the probability would be 24 divided

by the permutation representing the 11,880
possible orderings.

There is only one arrangement as follows:

Thus, the probability that a permutation of these

tiles selected will be in the chosen sequence is 1
divided by the permutation representing the 756
possible orderings.
 Once an event occurs in a permutation with n
objects taken all at a time where some items
consist of look-alikes/duplicates and rest are all
different, it can occur again.

Formula:

Where
: n is the total number of
objects
n1 is the first kind
 In a permutation with n different objects taken all at
nr is the last kind
Sample Problem: o n3 = 2; since green occurs 2 times
A box of floor tiles contains the following in
random order:
 5 blue (bl) tiles
 2 gold (gd) tiles
 2 green (gr) tiles in random order.
The desired pattern is bl, gd, bl, gr, bl, gd, bl, gr,
and bl. If we selected a permutation of these tiles
at random, what is the probability that we would
be choose the correct sequence?

Solution:
Determine n, n1, n2, n3, n4
o n = 9; since there is a total of 9 tiles
o n1 = 5; since blue occurs 5 times
o n2 = 2; since gold occurs 2 times
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a time, n = r.

Formula:

Where:
n (left of P) is the number of objects to
arrange n (right of P) is the number of
positions available for the objects to
fill
n! is read as “n factorial”

Sample Problem:
Ramon has five books on the floor, one for each of
his classes:
 Algebra
 Chemistry
 English
 Spanish
 History

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Ramon is going to put the books on a shelf. If he Step 3
picks the books up at random and places them in o Find the total number of possible 5-
a row on the same shelf, what is the probability book arrangements.
that his English, Spanish, and Algebra will be the o Determine n(left) and n(right) for 5-
leftmost books on the shelf followed by the 2 book arrangements:
other books?  n(left) = 5; since there are 5 books to arranged
 n(right) = 5; since there are 5 positions
Note: English, Spanish, and Algebra books can be available for placing the books on the shelf
arranged in any order provided that they are all
in the leftmost part of the shelf.

Solution:
Step 1
o Determine how many book arrangements
meet the conditions.
o Determine n(left) and n(right) for placing
the 3 leftmost books:
 n(left) = 3; since there are 3 different Step 4
books (English, Spanish and Algebra) to o Determine the probability.
arranged o There are a total of 12 possible combinations
 n(right) = 3; since there are 3 positions for placing the English, Spanish and Algebra
available for the 3 different books to place books to the leftmost part of the shelf
on the shelf followed before the other 2 books, thus, the
probability is:

o Determine n(left) and n(right) for placing the  Combination is a selection of objects from a
other 2 books: collection in any order as oppose to
 n(left) = 2; since there are 2 other books permutations which deal with the ordered
to arranged arrangements of objects.
 n(right) = 2; since there are 2 positions  In a combination in which r objects can be
available for the 2 other books to place on selected from a set of n objects, the selection
the shelf after the other 3 books rules are:
o the order of selection does not matter (the
same objects selected in different orders
are regarded as the same combination);
o each object can be selected only once;
this implies that you are not allowed any
repeat numbers.

Combination Formula:
Step 2
o Use the multiplication principle of counting to
find the number of successes.
Where:
n is the size
# ofof the full set
r is theplaceme
number of selected set Total
# of placement
# of (n-r) is the number of set that was left
nt for × for the other 2 =
succe
𝐸2
the 3 books
𝐸
s ses
leftmost Sample Problem:
𝐸1 1
books
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A high school is planning to put on a “A Chorus
Line” musical. There are 20 singers auditioning
for the musical. The director is looking for two
singers who could sing a

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good duet. What is the probability that Kevin and
Phoebe are the two singers who are selected by
the director?

Solution:
o This question involves a combination
because the order of the two students
selected does not matter.
o Determine n and r:
 n = 20; since there are 20 singers
auditioning for the musical
 r = 2; 2 singers will be chosen among 20 singers

o The probability of one of the selections

(Kevin and Phoebe) would be 1 divided by the
combination.

References:
12-7 Probability of Compound Events (n. d.) Retrieved from: http://www.ohschools.k12.oh.us/userfiles/223/Classes/197/12.7%20answers.pdf?id=24221
Addition Rule For Probabilities (2018) Retrieved from: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/additionruleforprobabilities.asp
Addition Rule For Probability (2017) Retrieved from: https://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/addition_rules
Addition Rules for Probability (2018) Retrieved from: http://slideplayer.com/slide/11601830/
Dependent Events (2018) Retrieved from: https://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/dependent_events
Empirical Vs Theoretical (n. d.) Retrieved from: https://www.enotes.com/homework-help/what-difference-between-empirical-theoretical-267734
Empirical vs Theoretical Probability (2018) Retrieved from: https://mathbitsnotebook.com/Geometry/Probability/PBTheoEmpirical.html
Ferguson Probability (n. d.) Retrieved from: https://quizizz.com/admin/quiz/5756d67a55b60214b89d2ee5
How to Calculate Probability (n. d.) Retrieved from: https://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-Probability
Ideas that Lead to Probability (2018) Retrieved from: http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/lessons/IdeasLeadProbability/
Important Formulas - Probability or Chance (2015) Retrieved from: http://www.careerbless.com/aptitude/qa/probability_imp.php
Independent Events (n. d.) Retrieved from: https://www.onlinemathlearning.com/independent-events.html
Independent and Dependent Events (n. d.) Retrieved from: https://www.northallegheny.org/cms/lib9/PA01001119/Centricity/Domain/771/13.6NG.pdf
Mutually Exclusive Events (2018) Retrieved from: http://www.probabilityformula.org/mutually-exclusive-events.html#
Probability (n. d.) Retrieved from: http://www.montereyinstitute.org/courses/DevelopmentalMath/COURSE_TEXT2_RESOURCE/U08_L4_T1_text_final.html
Probability (2018) Retrieved from: http://slideplayer.com/slide/3255149/
Probability Formula (2018) Retrieved from: http://www.probabilityformula.org/#
Probability Game for Kids (n. d.) Retrieved from: http://www.kidsmathgamesonline.com/numbers/probability.html
Probability Line (2016) Retrieved from: https://www.mathsisfun.com/probability_line.html
Probability Notes (n. d.) Retrieved from: https://coursecontent.nic.edu/keolson/math130ko/Concept%20Notes/Probability%20Notes.htm
Probability Problems (2018) Retrieved from: https://math.tutorvista.com/statistics/probability-problems.html
Probability Questions with Solutions (n. d.) Retrieved from: http://www.analyzemath.com/statistics/probability_questions.html
Probability Word Problems (2018) Retrieved from: https://www.onlinemathlearning.com/probability-problems.html
Starter (2018) Retrieved from: http://slideplayer.com/slide/7928518/
The Probability in Everyday Life (n. d.) Retrieved from: http://catalogimages.wiley.com/images/db/pdf/0471751413.excerpt.pdf
The Real Life Applications of Probability in Mathematics (2017) Retrieved from: http://www.iraj.in/journal/journal_file/journal_pdf/14-358-149822091462-64.pdf
Worksheet Practice for Solving Probability Problems (n. d.) Retrieved from:
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https://www.brighthubeducation.com/homework-math-help/101137-how-to- solve-probability-problems/

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