Republic of the Philippines

Department of Education
ALTERNATIVE LEARNING SYSTEM
Region IVA CALABARZON
SDO Sto. Tomas City

Name of Learner: ____________________________ Date: _________________

CLC: ______________________________________ Level: Advanced Elementary
__________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________________

General Reminders: Use this learning activity sheet with care. Do not put unnecessary mark/s on any part of the
activity sheet. Use the work sheets in answering the exercises. Read the directions carefully before doing each
task. Return this activity sheet to your teacher/facilitator once you are through with it.

❖ State and Apply the laws of probability in everyday life.

LS3MP-SP-PSF-AE/JHS-40/ALS K to 12 BEC CG 2019, p. 168

How can you make simple predictions of events based on the results of
experiments?
How do you solve routine and non-routine problems involving experimental and
theoretical probability? This module will guided you upon reading and studying the short
discussion and important points to remember given to you that even without the teacher you
can still manage to learn.

In this module you will learn the following:

➢ what is probability
➢ what are the 8 probability in real life
➢ learn what is theoretical and experimental probability
➢ learn to solve probability problems
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A. Directions: Read the events and select if you think it is certain, likely,
unlikely, or impossible to happen.

B. Directions: Read the events below and write if you think it is certain, likely,
unlikely, or impossible to happen.

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Directions: Use likely to happen, unlikely to happen, certain to happen and
impossible to happen to describe each of the following statements. Write your
answer in the blank.

_________________1. A couple cannot afford to have an ultrasound and they are

waiting for a new-born baby. They feel that the unborn
baby is a girl.

_________________2. The sun sets in the south.

_________________3. It is cloudy today. It will not rain.

_________________4. I listened to the teacher and participated in the discussion

of the lesson. Then I reviewed my lesson. When I took
the test, I got a perfect score.

_________________5. Wearing face mask and shield can help prevent the spread
of corona virus.

_________________6. When a pupil is present, he is ready for the day’s

schoolwork.

_________________7. When a pupil is happy, he has a big amount of allowance.

_________________8. When a pupil is stout, he is healthy.

_________________9. The sun rises in the west.

_________________10. A good reader understands well.

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Directions: Analyze the given data below and answer the questions. Circle the
letter of your correct answer.

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Probability is a mathematical term for the likelihood that something will occur. It is the ability
to understand and estimate the likelihood of any different combination of outcomes.

Why is probability important?

Probability is an essential tool in applied mathematics and mathematical modeling. It
is vital to have an understanding of the nature of chance and variation in life, in order to be a
well-informed, (or “efficient”) citizen. One area in which this is extremely important is in
understanding risk and relative risk.

Probability has something to do with a chance. It is the study of things that might happen or
might not. We use it most of the time, usually without thinking of it. We don’t perform actual
probability problems in our daily life but use subjective probability to determine the course of
action or any judgment. Everything from the weather forecasting to our chance of dying in an
accident is a probability.

Probability is a mathematical term for the likelihood that something will occur. It is the ability
to understand and estimate the likelihood of any different combination of outcomes.

8 Real Life Examples Of Probability

Let’s discuss some real-life examples of Probability

1. Weather Forecasting
Before planning for an outing or a picnic, we always check the
weather forecast. Suppose it says that there is a 60% chance that rain
may occur. Do you ever wonder from where this 60% come from?
Meteorologists use a specific tool and technique to predict the weather
forecast. They look at all the other historical database of the days, which
have similar characteristics of temperature, humidity, and pressure, etc.
And determine that on 60 out of 100 similar days in the past, it had
rained.

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2. Batting Average in Cricket
Batting average in Cricket represents how many runs a batsman would
score before getting out. For example, if a batsman had scored 40 runs out of
100 from boundaries in the previous match. Then, there is a chance that he
would score 40% of his runs in the next match from boundaries.

3. Politics
Many politics analysts use the tactics of probability to predict the
outcome of the election’s results. For example, they may predict a
certain political party to come into power; based on the results of exit
polls.

4. Flipping a coin or Dice

Flipping a coin is one of the most important events before the start of the match.
There is no surety, either head will come or not. Both head and tail have 1 out of
2, i.e., 50% chances to occur. Hence, the probability of getting the desired
outcome is 0.5. Similarly, while playing with dice, there are 1 out of 6 chances,
that the required number will come.

5. Insurance
Probability helps in analyzing the best plan of insurance which suits
you and your family the most. For example, you are an active smoker,
and chances of getting lungs disease are higher in you. So, instead of
choosing an insurance scheme for your vehicle or house, you may go
for your health insurance first, because the chance of your getting sick
are higher. For instance, nowadays people are getting their mobile
phones insured because they know that the chances of their mobile
phones getting damaged or lost are high.

6. Are we likely to die in an accident?

Rates of car accidents have increased rapidly in the past decades. For example,
if a city has a population of one lakh, and the death rate in car accidents is 500.
So, the chance of being killed in a crash is 500/1 lakh is 0.05%. Thus, a person
has a 0.05% chance to die in a car accident.

7. Lottery Tickets
Winning or losing a lottery is one of the most interesting examples
of probability. In a typical Lottery game, each player chooses six
distinct numbers from a particular range. If all the six numbers on
a ticket match with that of the winning lottery ticket, the ticket
holder is a Jackpot winner- regardless of the order of the numbers.
The probability of this happening is 1 out of 10.

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8. Playing Cards
There is a probability of getting a desired card when we randomly pick one
out of 52. For example, the probability of picking up an ace in a 52 deck of
cards is 4/52; since there are 4 aces in the deck. The odds of picking up any
other card is therefore 52/52 – 4/52 = 48/52.

Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an

event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. The probability of an event is a
number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking, 0 indicates impossibility of the event and
1 indicates certainty.
Let’s study the sample problem below. Let’s try to answer the situations that involves
probability.
Explanation:
Since there are 12 months in a year, so there are 12 possible outcomes. There are 3 months that
starts with letter J: January, June, and July.

The following important points so that you will be guided on how to make simple predictions
of events based on the results of experiments and in solving routine and non-routine problems
involving experimental and theoretical probability.

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Probability is used to describe how likely or unlikely it is that something will happen.
Probability will be given in fraction, decimal or percent. The value of probability ranges from
0 to 1(0 means the event is impossible to happen, while 1 means the event is certain to happen.)
Possible outcomes are each of the outcomes that could result from an experiment.
Theoretical and Experimental probability:
When we use a formula to find the probability of an event, we are finding the theoretical
probability. Theoretical probability of an event is the number of ways that an event can occur
divided by the total number of outcomes. Theoretical probability is what we expect to happen.
Formula:

Theoretical Probability
We can also find the theoretical probability of an event.
Example:
A bag contains 10 red marbles, 8 blue marbles and 2 yellow marbles. Find the
theoretical probability of getting a blue marble.
Solution:
There are 8 blue marbles. Therefore, the number of favorable outcomes = 8.
There are a total of 20 marbles. Therefore, the number of total outcomes = 20

𝟖 𝟐
P=𝟐𝟎 ÷ 4 P= 𝟓

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Experimental Probability of an event is the ratio of the number of times an event occurs to
the total number of trials or times the activity is performed. We can also find the probability of
an event by doing an experiment. When we do this, we are finding experimental probability.
Experimental probability is what actually happen when we try it out.
Formula:

Experimental probability is used in most real-life situations when the probabilities cannot
be determined theoretically.
As more trials conducted, the experimental probability generally gets closer to the theoretical
probability.
Sample exercise in finding the theoretical probability:
1. There are 6 possible ways for a die (singular of dice) to turn up. What is the probability of
rolling a 1? a 2? a 5?

Sample exercise in finding the experimental probability:

1. A bag contains 12 red marbles, 8 blue marbles, and 4 yellow marbles. Find the
experimental probability of getting a blue marble.
Solution:
Take a marble from the bag.
Record the color and return the marble in the bag.
Repeat the process (at least 10 times).
Count the number of times a blue marble was picked (suppose it is 4).
Using the formula we have,

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A. Directions: Identify the event according to the category given in the chart (impossible,
poor chance, even chance, good chance, certain). Write your answer in the blank.

____
____
_____
______
______

B. Directions: Look at the spinner. Then answer the questions.

C. Look at the chart. Then answer the questions that follow.

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Directions: Try to answer the following problems. Circle the correct letter of the correct
answer.

1. A Day is chosen from a week. Find the probability of choosing a Wednesday.

a. 4/7 b. 3/7 c. 2/7 d. 1/7

2. What is the probability of choosing 7th letter “a” from the word “Mathematics”?
a. 2/11 b. 3/11 c. 11/2 d. 2/12
3. A bag contains 10 marbles: 3 red, 3 green, and 4 blue. If a marble is picked at random,
what is the probability of getting a blue marble?
a. 2/5 b. 3/5 c. 4/5 d. 5/6

4.) A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored green, white, blue, and red. What is the
probability of landing on each color after spinning the spinner?
a. 4/4 b. 3/4 c. 2/4 d. 1/4

5. There are 5 white balls, 8 red balls, 7 yellow balls, and 4 green balls in a jar. A ball is
chosen at random. What is the probability of choosing red?
a. 3/25 b. 4/24 c. 5/24 d. 1/3

6. A bag contains 5 blue sticks,4 red sticks and 3 orange sticks and you ask your friend to
pick one without looking. What is the probability that the stick will be blue?

a. 5/12 b. 6/12 c. 7/12 d. 8/12

7. When a six-sided die is rolled, what is the probability that the number rolled will be five?
a. 1/4 b. 1/5 c. 1/6 d. 1/7

8. You ask a friend to think of a number from 4 to 10. What is the probability that his
number will be 7?
a. 1/8 b. 1/7 c. 1/6 d. 1/5

9. On a popular television game show, a contestant must choose one of the five envelopes.
One envelope contains the grand prize, a car. Find the probability of not choosing a car.
a. 4/5 b. 6/7 c. 7/9 d. 9/7

10. You roll a pair of number cubes. What is the probability of getting even numbers on
both sides?
a. 4/4 b. 2/3 c. 1/2 d. 1/3

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 POST-TEST
A. Directions: Read the situation below. And answer the questions that follow.

1. What is the probability that he will get a brown face mask?

a. 2/2 b. 3/6 c. 1/3
2. What is the probability of getting the red face mask?
a. 1 b. 2/2 c. 0
3. What is the probability of not picking a white face mask?
a. 3/6 b. ½ c. 1/5
4. A bag had 5 red balls and 4 blue balls. When a ball is picked from this bag, what is the
probability of it being a blue ball?
a. 5/4 b. 4/9 c. 4/5
5. In a class there are 15 boys and 10 girls. When a teacher calls out the name of a student,
what is the probability that it is the name of a girl?
a. 10/25 b/ 2/5 c. 10/15
6. Irvin has five t-shirts of which three are old and two are new. What is the probability that
Irvin wears a new t-shirt to visit his friend's home?
a. 5 b. 3/5 c. 2/5
7. A carpenter is trying to hit a nail with a hammer. For every ten shorts he correctly hits the
nail for six times and misses it for four times. What is the probability that the carpenter
rightly hits the nail?
a. 6/10 b. 3/5 c. 4/10
8. Samuel wins 5 matches out of 8 matches. What is the probability of his winning the
tournament.
a. 5/8 b. 8 c. 8/5
9. A bag had 8 oranges and 4 apples. When a fruit is picked from the bag, what is the
probability that is an apple?
a. 8/4 b. 4/12 c. 1/3
10. In a class 12 students like outdoor games, and 18 students like indoor games. What is the
probability that a student likes an outdoor game?
a. 12/30 b. 2/5 c. 12/18
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 ❖ What is probability and the 8 real life situation of probability?
_____________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________

❖ Why it is important to know how solve routine and non-routine problems involving
experimental and theoretical probability in our real-life situations?
_____________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________

• Grade 6 Self Directed Modules

• 1.probability-more-likely-and-less-likely_br74t5.pdf (mathskills4kids.com)
• 8 Real Life Examples Of Probability – StudiousGuy

Prepared by:
__________________________
ALS Mobile Teacher
District

Note: “Always be aware of your actions so that you will not

hurt someone.”

_____________ ________________ ______________

ALS Learner Signature ALS Teacher Parents/Guardian Signature
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AE Level

Let’s See What Have You Learned

Learner’s answer may vary.

Pre-Test A.

1. unlike to happen 2. impossible to happen 3. impossible to happen 4. certain to happen

5. certain to happen 6. likely to happen 7. likely to happen 8. likely to happen
9. impossible to happen 10. certain to happen

Lets See What You Already Know

1. Less Likely 2. Less Likely 3. More Likely

Activity 1
A. B. C.
a. certain
b. even chance
c. poor chance 1
Purple
d. impossible
e. good chance 2
Blue
1
Red
3

Activity 2
1. d 2. a 3. a 4. d 5. d 6. a 7. c 8. b 9. a 10. a

Post-Test

1. c. 1/3 2. c. 0 3. b. 1/2 4. b. 4/9 5. b. 2/5

6. b. 3/5 7. b. 3/5 8. a. 5/8 9. c. 1/3 10. b. 2/5

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