Probability and Random Processes

(15B11MA301)

Lecture-25
(Content Covered: Reliability of Systems, Serial and Parallel Configuration)

Department of Mathematics
Jaypee Institute of Information Technology, Noida
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Contents
• Reliability of Systems
• Serial Configuration
• Parallel Configuration
• Solved Examples
• Practice Questions
• References

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Reliability of Systems : An Introduction
• A system is generally understood as a set of components assembled to perform a
certain function.

• To evaluate the reliability of a complex system, its is required to apply a particular –

failure law to the entire system.

• But it will be more proper if we determine an appropriate reliability model for each
component and then compute the reliability of the system by applying the relevant rules
of probability according to the configuration of the components within the system.

• The configuration of the components can be of either of the two categories viz.,
(i) Serial Configuration and (ii) Parallel Configuration.

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Serial Configuration
• Serial or nonredundant configuration is one in which the components of
the system are connected in series (or serially) as shown in figure. Here,
each block represents a component.

C1 C2 Cn

• In series configuration, all components must function for the system to

function.

• The failure of any component causes system failure.

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• Consider a system comprising of two components in series 𝐶1 and 𝐶2 .

• Let 𝑅1 (t), 𝑅2 (t) and 𝑅𝑠 (t) be the reliabilities of the components and the system
respectively.

Then, 𝑅1 = P(𝐶1 ) = probability that 𝐶1 functions

𝑅2 = P(𝐶2 ) = probability that 𝐶2 functions

Also, 𝑅𝑠 = probability that both 𝐶1 and 𝐶2 function

= 𝑃(𝐶1 ∩ 𝐶2 )

= 𝑃(𝐶1 ) . P(𝐶2 ) ( assuming that 𝐶1 and 𝐶2 function independently)

𝑹𝒔 =𝑹𝟏 . 𝑹𝟐 …….(1)
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The result obtained for two component series system can be extended for any n
independent components in series.

Consider a system comprising of any n components in series 𝐶1 , 𝐶2 , . . , 𝐶𝑛 with

reliabilities as 𝑅1 (t), 𝑅2 (t),… 𝑅𝑛 (t), and 𝑅𝑠 (t) be the reliability of the system.

Then, 𝑹𝒔 (𝒕) =𝑹𝟏 (𝒕) × 𝑹𝟐 (𝒕) × ⋯ × 𝑹𝒏 (𝒕)

≤ 𝒎𝒊𝒏 𝑹𝟏 (t), 𝑹𝟐 (t),… 𝑹𝒏 (t) [since, 0 < 𝑅𝑖 (t) <1]

i.e. the system reliability will not be greater than the smallest of the component
reliabilities.

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Some Special Deductions:

1. If each component has a constant failure rate 𝜆𝑖 , then

𝑅𝑠 𝑡 = 𝑒 −𝜆1𝑡 𝑒 −𝜆2𝑡 ….. 𝑒 −𝜆𝑛 𝑡

= 𝑒 −(𝜆1 +𝜆2+…+𝜆𝑛 )𝑡 = 𝑒 −𝜆𝑠𝑡

It means that the system also has a constant failure rate 𝜆𝑠 = (𝜆1 +𝜆2 + … + 𝜆𝑛 )

2. If the components follow the Weibull failure law with parameters 𝛽𝑖 and 𝜃𝑖 , then
𝛽1 𝛽2
𝑡 𝑡 𝑡 𝛽𝑛
− − −
𝑅𝑠 𝑡 = 𝑒 𝜃1 × 𝑒 𝜃2 ×….× 𝑒 𝜃𝑛

𝛽𝑖
𝑡
= exp − σ𝑛𝑖=1
𝜃𝑖

It means that the system does not follow Weibull failure law, even though every component follows a
Weibull failure distribution.
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Parallel Configuration
• Parallel or redundant configuration is one in which the components of the system are
connected in parallel as shown in figure. Here, each block represents a component.
C1

C2

Cn

• In parallel configuration, all components must fail for a system to fail.

• It means that if one or more components function, the system continues to function.

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• Consider a system comprising of two components in parallel 𝐶1 and 𝐶2 .

• Let 𝑅1 (t), 𝑅2 (t) and 𝑅𝑃 (t) be the reliabilities of the components and the system respectively.

Then, 𝑅1 = P(𝐶1 ) = probability that 𝐶1 functions

𝑅2 = P(𝐶2 ) = probability that 𝐶2 functions

Also, 𝑅𝑃 = probability that ( 𝐶1 or 𝐶2 or both function )

= 𝑃(𝐶1 ∪ 𝐶2 )

= 𝑃(𝐶1 ) +P(𝐶2 ) - 𝑃(𝐶1 ∩ 𝐶2 )

= 𝑃(𝐶1 ) +P(𝐶2 ) - 𝑃 𝐶1 . 𝑃(𝐶2 ) (as components are independent)

𝑹𝑷 = 𝑹𝟏 + 𝑹𝟐 − 𝑹𝟏 𝑹𝟐
= 1- (1- 𝑹𝟏 )(1- 𝑹𝟐 )

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The result obtained for two component parallel system can be extended for any n
independent components in parallel.

Consider a system comprising of any n components in parallel 𝐶1 , 𝐶2 , . . , 𝐶𝑛 with

reliabilities as 𝑅1 (t), 𝑅2 (t),… 𝑅𝑛 (t), and 𝑅𝑃 (t) be the reliability of the system.

Then, 𝑹𝑷 (𝒕) = 1- {(1- 𝑹𝟏 ) (1- 𝑹𝟐 )…. (1- 𝑹𝒏 )}

≥ 𝒎𝒂𝒙 𝑹𝟏 , 𝑹𝟐 ,… 𝑹𝒏 [since, 0 < 𝑅𝑖 (t) <1]

i.e. the system reliability will be greater than the largest of the component reliabilities.

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Deduction:

If each component has a constant failure rate 𝜆𝑖 , then

𝑅𝑖 𝑡 = 𝑒 −𝜆𝑖 𝑡 ,

𝑅𝑃 𝑡 = 1 − (1 − 𝑒 −𝜆1 𝑡 ) (1 − 𝑒 −𝜆2 𝑡 )

= 𝑒 −𝜆1𝑡 + 𝑒 −𝜆2 𝑡 - 𝑒 −(𝜆1+𝜆2)𝑡

∞
and MTTF = ‫׬‬0 𝑅𝑃 𝑡 𝑑𝑡

∞ ∞ ∞
= ‫׬‬0 𝑒 −𝜆1𝑡 𝑑𝑡+ ‫׬‬0 𝑒 −𝜆2𝑡 𝑑𝑡+ ‫׬‬0 𝑒 −(𝜆1+𝜆2)𝑡 𝑑𝑡

1 1 1
= + -
𝜆1 𝜆2 𝜆1 +𝜆2

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Example An electronic circuit consists of 5 silicon transistors, 3 silicon diodes, 10 composition
resistors and 2 ceramic capacitors connected in series configuration. The hourly failure rate of each
component is given below:
Silicon transistor: 𝜆𝑡 = 4 × 10−5 ; Silicon Diode: 𝜆𝐷 = 3 × 10−5
Composition Resistor: 𝜆𝑟 = 2 × 10−4 ; Ceramic Capacitor: 𝜆𝐶 = 2 × 10−4
Calculate the reliability of the circuit for 10 hours, when the components follow exponential
distribution.
Solution: Since the components are connected in series, the system (circuit) reliability is given by
𝑹𝒔 (𝒕) =𝑹𝟏 (𝒕) × 𝑹𝟐 (𝒕) × 𝑹𝟑 (𝒕) × 𝑹𝟒 (𝒕)
= 𝑒 −𝜆 1 𝑡 𝑒 −𝜆 2 𝑡 𝑒 −𝜆 3 𝑡 𝑒 −𝜆 4 𝑡
=𝑒 −(5𝜆 𝑡 + 3𝜆 𝐷 +10𝜆 𝑟 + 2𝜆 𝐶 )𝑡
−(20×10 −5 + 9×10 −5 +20×10 −4 + 4×10 −4 )10
Therefore, 𝑹𝒔 (𝟏𝟎)= 𝑒
= 𝑒 −0.0269 = 0.9735

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Example Thermocouples of a particular design have a failure rate of 0.008 per hour. How many
thermocouples must be placed in parallel if the system is to run for 100 hours with a system failure
probability of no more than 0.05? Assume that all failures are independent.
Solution: If T is the time to failure of the system, it is required that
𝑃(𝑇 ≤ 100) ≤ 0.05
i.e., 1 − 𝑅𝑃 (100) ≤ 0.05
Let the number of thermocouples to be connected in parallel be n,
Then 𝑅𝑃 (𝑡) = 1 − (1 − 𝑅 )𝑛 , where R is the reliability of each couple.
Given, the failure rate of each couple =0.008 (constant)
Therefore, 𝑅 = 𝑒 −0.008𝑡
So, we have 1 − 𝑅𝑃 (𝑡) = (1 − 𝑅 )𝑛 = (1 − 𝑒 −0.008𝑡 )𝑛
1 − 𝑅𝑃 (100) = (1 − 𝑒 −0.8 )𝑛 ≤ 0.05
= (0.55067)𝑛 ≤ 0.05
By trials, above equation is satisfied for n= 6.

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Example A system consists of two subsystems in parallel. The reliability of each sub system is given by
𝑡 2
−
(Weibull failure) R 𝑡 = 𝑒 θ . Determine the system MTTF.

Solution: The system reliability is given by

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Practice Questions

1. A power supply consists of three rectifiers in series. Each rectifier has a Weibull failure
distribution with 𝛽= 2.1. However they have different characteristic lifetimes given by 12,000
hours, 18,500 hours and 21,500 hours. Find the MTTF and the design life of the power supply
corresponding to a reliability of 0.90. ( Ans. 8837.5 hours; 3417 hours)

2. Which of the following systems has the higher reliability at the end of 100 operating hours?

(i) Two constant failure rate components in parallel each having an MTTF of 1000 hours.

(ii) A Weibull component with a shape parameter of 2 and a characteristic life of 10,000 hours in
series with a constant failure rate component with a failure rate of 0.00005.

(Ans. (i) 0.9909, (ii) 0.9949; system (ii) has higher reliability)
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References
1. Veerarajan, T., Probability, Statistics and Random Processes, 3rd Ed. Tata McGraw-
Hill, 2008.
2. Ghahramani, S., Fundamentals of Probability with Stochastic Processes, Pearson,
2005.
3. Papoulis, A. and Pillai, S.U., Probability, Random Variables and Stochastic
Processes, Tata McGraw-Hill, 2002.
4. Miller, S., Childers, D., Probability and Random Processes, Academic Press, 2012.

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