Statistics for Data Science -1

Statistics for Data Science -1

Lecture 7.5: Conditional Probability: Independent
events-examples

Usha Mohan

Indian Institute of Technology Madras

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Learning objectives

1. Understand notion of conditional probability, i.e find the

probability of an event given another event has occurred.

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Statistics for Data Science -1

Learning objectives

1. Understand notion of conditional probability, i.e find the

probability of an event given another event has occurred.
2. Distinguish between independent and dependent events.

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Statistics for Data Science -1

Learning objectives

1. Understand notion of conditional probability, i.e find the

probability of an event given another event has occurred.
2. Distinguish between independent and dependent events.
3. Solve applications of probability.

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Statistics for Data Science -1

Independent events: example

Rolling a dice
Deck of cards

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Example: Roll a dice twice

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Example: Roll a dice twice

I Experiment: Roll a dice twice

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Example: Roll a dice twice

I Experiment: Roll a dice twice
I Sample space:
 

 (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), 

 (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),

 

 

(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6),
 
S=

 (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), 

(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6),

 


 


(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6),


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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Example: Roll a dice twice

I Experiment: Roll a dice twice
I Sample space:
 

 (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), 

 (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),

 

 

(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6),
 
S=

 (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), 

(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6),

 


 


(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6),

I Define the following events
I E1 : The first outcome is a 3
I E2 : Sum of outcomes is 8
I E3 : Sum of outcomes is 7

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Statistics for Data Science -1
Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Example: Roll a dice twice

I Experiment: Roll a dice twice
I Sample space:
 

 (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), 

 (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),

 

 

(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6),
 
S=

 (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), 

(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6),

 


 


(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6),

I Define the following events
I E1 : The first outcome is a 3
I E2 : Sum of outcomes is 8
I E3 : Sum of outcomes is 7
I Are events E1 and E2 independent?

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Statistics for Data Science -1
Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Example: Roll a dice twice

I Experiment: Roll a dice twice
I Sample space:
 

 (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), 

 (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),

 

 

(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6),
 
S=

 (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), 

(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6),

 


 


(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6),

I Define the following events
I E1 : The first outcome is a 3
I E2 : Sum of outcomes is 8
I E3 : Sum of outcomes is 7
I Are events E1 and E2 independent?
I Are events E1 and E3 independent?
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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E2 independent?-solution

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E2 independent?-solution

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E2 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E2 is the event that the first outcome is 3 and sum of

outcomes is 8.

P(E1 ∩ E2 ) =

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E2 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E2 is the event that the first outcome is 3 and sum of

outcomes is 8.
1
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P({(3, 5)}) =
36

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E2 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E2 is the event that the first outcome is 3 and sum of

outcomes is 8.
1
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P({(3, 5)}) =
36

I P(E1 ) =

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E2 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E2 is the event that the first outcome is 3 and sum of

outcomes is 8.
1
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P({(3, 5)}) =
36

I P(E1 ) = P({(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)}) = 6
36

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E2 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E2 is the event that the first outcome is 3 and sum of

outcomes is 8.
1
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P({(3, 5)}) =
36

I P(E1 ) = P({(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)}) = 6
36
I P(E2 ) =

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E2 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E2 is the event that the first outcome is 3 and sum of

outcomes is 8.
1
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P({(3, 5)}) =
36

I P(E1 ) = P({(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)}) = 6
36
I P(E2 ) = P({(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2)}) = 36 5

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E2 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E2 is the event that the first outcome is 3 and sum of

outcomes is 8.
1
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P({(3, 5)}) =
36

I P(E1 ) = P({(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)}) = 6
36
I P(E2 ) = P({(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2)}) = 36 5

1
I Since 36 6 5
6= 36 × 36 we see that P(E1 ∩ E2 ) 6= P(E1 ) × P(E2 ),
so events

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E2 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E2 is the event that the first outcome is 3 and sum of

outcomes is 8.
1
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P({(3, 5)}) =
36

I P(E1 ) = P({(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)}) = 6
36
I P(E2 ) = P({(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2)}) = 36 5

1
I Since 36 6 5
6= 36 × 36 we see that P(E1 ∩ E2 ) 6= P(E1 ) × P(E2 ),
so events E1 and E2 are not independent.

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E3 independent?-solution

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E3 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E3 is the event that the first outcome is 3 and sum of

outcomes is 7.

P(E1 ∩ E3 ) =

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E3 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E3 is the event that the first outcome is 3 and sum of

outcomes is 7.
1
P(E1 ∩ E3 ) = P({(3, 4)}) =
36

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E3 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E3 is the event that the first outcome is 3 and sum of

outcomes is 7.
1
P(E1 ∩ E3 ) = P({(3, 4)}) =
36

I P(E1 ) = P({(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)}) =

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E3 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E3 is the event that the first outcome is 3 and sum of

outcomes is 7.
1
P(E1 ∩ E3 ) = P({(3, 4)}) =
36

I P(E1 ) = P({(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)}) = 6
36

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E3 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E3 is the event that the first outcome is 3 and sum of

outcomes is 7.
1
P(E1 ∩ E3 ) = P({(3, 4)}) =
36

I P(E1 ) = P({(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)}) = 6
36
I P(E3 ) =

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E3 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E3 is the event that the first outcome is 3 and sum of

outcomes is 7.
1
P(E1 ∩ E3 ) = P({(3, 4)}) =
36

I P(E1 ) = P({(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)}) = 6
36
I P(E3 ) = P({(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1)}) = 6
36

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E3 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E3 is the event that the first outcome is 3 and sum of

outcomes is 7.
1
P(E1 ∩ E3 ) = P({(3, 4)}) =
36

I P(E1 ) = P({(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)}) = 6
36
I P(E3 ) = P({(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1)}) = 6
36
I Since 1 6 6
36 = 36 × 36 we see that P(E1 ∩ E3 ) = P(E1 ) × P(E3 ),
so

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Independent events: example
Rolling a dice

Are E1 and E3 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E3 is the event that the first outcome is 3 and sum of

outcomes is 7.
1
P(E1 ∩ E3 ) = P({(3, 4)}) =
36

I P(E1 ) = P({(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)}) = 6
36
I P(E3 ) = P({(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1)}) = 6
36
1
I Since 36 6 6
= 36 × 36 we see that P(E1 ∩ E3 ) = P(E1 ) × P(E3 ),
so events E1 and E3 are independent.

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Independent events: example
Deck of cards

Example: deck of cards

Consider again the experiment of randomly selecting one card from
a deck of 52 playing cards.

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Independent events: example
Deck of cards

Example: deck of cards

Consider again the experiment of randomly selecting one card from
a deck of 52 playing cards.

I Define the following events

I E1 : A face card is selected.
I E2 : A king is selected.
I E3 : A heart is selected.

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Independent events: example
Deck of cards

Example: deck of cards

Consider again the experiment of randomly selecting one card from
a deck of 52 playing cards.

I Define the following events

I E1 : A face card is selected.
I E2 : A king is selected.
I E3 : A heart is selected.
I Are E1 and E2 independent?
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Independent events: example
Deck of cards

Example: deck of cards

Consider again the experiment of randomly selecting one card from
a deck of 52 playing cards.

I Define the following events

I E1 : A face card is selected.
I E2 : A king is selected.
I E3 : A heart is selected.
I Are E1 and E2 independent?
I Are E2 and E3 independent? 7/ 10
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Independent events: example
Deck of cards

Are E1 and E2 independent?-solution

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Independent events: example
Deck of cards

Are E1 and E2 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E2 is the event that a face card and a king is selected

which is the event a king is selected.
4
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P({KH, KC , KS, KD}) =
52

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Independent events: example
Deck of cards

Are E1 and E2 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E2 is the event that a face card and a king is selected

which is the event a king is selected.
4
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P({KH, KC , KS, KD}) =
52

I P(E1 ) =
P({JH, JC , JS, JD, KH, KC , KS, KD, QH, QC , QS, QD}) =
12
52

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Independent events: example
Deck of cards

Are E1 and E2 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E2 is the event that a face card and a king is selected

which is the event a king is selected.
4
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P({KH, KC , KS, KD}) =
52

I P(E1 ) =
P({JH, JC , JS, JD, KH, KC , KS, KD, QH, QC , QS, QD}) =
12
52
I P(E2 ) = P({KH, KC , KS, KD}) = 4
52

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Independent events: example
Deck of cards

Are E1 and E2 independent?-solution

I E1 ∩ E2 is the event that a face card and a king is selected

which is the event a king is selected.
4
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P({KH, KC , KS, KD}) =
52

I P(E1 ) =
P({JH, JC , JS, JD, KH, KC , KS, KD, QH, QC , QS, QD}) =
12
52
I P(E2 ) = P({KH, KC , KS, KD}) = 52 4

4
I Since 52 12 4
6= 52 × 52 we see that P(E1 ∩ E2 ) 6= P(E1 ) × P(E2 ),
so events E1 and E2 are not independent.

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Independent events: example
Deck of cards

Are E2 and E3 independent?-solution

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Independent events: example
Deck of cards

Are E2 and E3 independent?-solution

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Independent events: example
Deck of cards

Are E2 and E3 independent?-solution

I E2 ∩ E3 is the event that a king and a heart is selected which

is the event a kingheart is selected.
1
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P({KH}) =
52
I P(E2 ) = P({KH, KC , KS, KD}) = 4
52

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Independent events: example
Deck of cards

Are E2 and E3 independent?-solution

I E2 ∩ E3 is the event that a king and a heart is selected which

is the event a kingheart is selected.
1
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P({KH}) =
52
4
I P(E2 ) = P({KH, KC , KS, KD}) = 52
I P(E3 ) =
P({AH, 2H, 3H, 4H, 5H, 6H, 7H, 8H, 9H, 10H, JH, KH, QH}) =
13
52

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Statistics for Data Science -1
Independent events: example
Deck of cards

Are E2 and E3 independent?-solution

I E2 ∩ E3 is the event that a king and a heart is selected which

is the event a kingheart is selected.
1
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P({KH}) =
52
4
I P(E2 ) = P({KH, KC , KS, KD}) = 52
I P(E3 ) =
P({AH, 2H, 3H, 4H, 5H, 6H, 7H, 8H, 9H, 10H, JH, KH, QH}) =
13
52
1 4
I Since 52 = 52 × 13
52 we see that P(E2 ∩ E3 ) = P(E2 ) × P(E3 ),
so events E2 and E3 are independent.

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Independent events: example
Deck of cards

Section summary

I Examples of independent and dependent events.

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