International Journal of Environment and Climate Change

12(10): 1210-1221, 2022; Article no.IJECC.88887

ISSN: 2581-8627
(Past name: British Journal of Environment & Climate Change, Past ISSN: 2231–4784)

Effect of ENSO on Seasonal Temperature Over

Tamil Nadu
M. Rajavel a, M. Vengateswari a*, V. Geethalakshmi a, K. Bhuvaneswari a,
V. Vakeswaran a, R. Gowtham a and S. Priyanka a
a
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India.

Authors’ contributions

This work was carried out in collaboration among all authors. All authors read and approved the final
manuscript.

Article Information
DOI: 10.9734/IJECC/2022/v12i1030918

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Received 12 April 2022

Accepted 24 June 2022
Original Research Article
Published 27 June 2022

ABSTRACT

Increased concentration of greenhouse gases is expected to alter the radiative balance of

atmosphere, causing increase in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns. Climate
variability has been principal source of fluctuations in Indian food production. Even though there is
no long-term trend, inter - annual variability of Indian monsoon rainfall leading to frequent droughts
and floods has profound influence on agriculture and intern, national economy. It is well recognized
that El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability on seasonal
to inter-annual scales and its impacts are felt worldwide. ENSO often affects seasonal temperature,
precipitation and thus crop yields in many regions, however, the overall impacts of ENSO on global
yields are uncertain Maximum and minimum average temperature was calculated for different
seasons such as Cold Weather Period (CWP), Hot Weather Period (HWP), South West Monsoon
(SWM), North East Monsoon (NEM) for each El Niño, La Niña and neutral years at various districts
of Tamil Nadu. Relation between ENSO and temperature was analyzed by computing the anomaly
in temperature at different districts of Tamil Nadu. The temperature deviation between the ENSO
o
and neutral phases was not significant as the deviation was within + 0.3 C in all the seasons.

Keywords: ENSO; temperature; CWP; HWP; SWM; NEM.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

*Corresponding author: E-mail: [email protected];

 Rajavel et al.; IJECC, 12(10): 1210-1221, 2022; Article no.IJECC.88887

1. INTRODUCTION North latitude and 76°15' and 80°20' East

longitude.
“Increased concentration of greenhouse gases is
expected to alter the radiative balance of 2.2 ENSO Linked Climate Variability
atmosphere, causing increase in temperature
and changes in precipitation patterns” [1]. El Niño is one of the important factors leading to
“Climate variability has been principal source of climate variability. Operationally ENSO
fluctuations in Indian food production. Even conditions are defined based on sea surface
though there is no long-term trend, inter - annual temperature variations and their persistence
variability of Indian monsoon rainfall leading to along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The National
frequent droughts and floods has profound Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
influence on agriculture and intern, national define El Niño and La Niña events based on a
economy” [2]. “Climate variability refers to o
threshold of + 0.5 C for the Oceanic Niño Index
departures from the mean position, that are (ONI) (3 months running mean of SST anomalies
usually called anomalies, over a given time over equatorial eastern Pacific)
period (for instance a month, a season, a year) (http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm). ENSO
from the long-term statistics. Many scientists years segregated into two groups as El Niño and
have analyzed the climatic trends over India in La Niña and remaining years were classified
the past. In the last 100 years the mean annual under neutral category.
surface air temperature of India has increased by
0.4 - 0.6°C” [3]. Annamalai et al. [4] has reported
“decreasing rainfall tendency in both Southwest 2.3 Influence of ENSO on Temperature
and Northeast monsoon seasons in most parts of
central and Northern India. In contrast, Daily temperature data at district scale was
peninsular parts of India, particularly over the obtained from India Meteorological Department
o
region 9-16 N showed an increasing rainfall (IMD) for a period of 43 years from 1971 – 2013
tendency and this increase was particularly and segregated based on El Niño, La Niña and
strong during the Northeast monsoon season”. neutral years. Maximum and minimum average
Sivakumar et al. [5] has reported “warming trend temperature was calculated for different seasons
0
of about 0.57 C per 100 years over the Indian Cold Weather Period (CWP, January - February)
sub continent and increase in extreme rainfall Hot Weather Period (HWP, March - May) South
events over Northwest India as well as decline in West Monsoon season (SWM, June-September)
the number of rainy days along east coastal and North East Monsoon (NEM, September-
stations during the summer monsoon”. “It is well December) using Weather Cock Software.
recognized that El Niño / Southern Oscillation Relation between ENSO and temperature was
(ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate analyzed by computing the anomaly in
variability on seasonal to inter-annual scales and temperature at different districts of Tamil Nadu.
its impacts are felt worldwide” [6,7] ENSO often
affects seasonal temperature, precipitation and 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
thus crop yields in many regions, however, the
overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are 3.1 Influence of ENSO on Temperature
uncertain [8,9].
Deviations of maximum and minimum
2. MATERIALS AND METHODS temperatures from the normal maximum and
minimum temperatures for Cold Weather period,
2.1 Description of the Study Area (Figs. 1 and 2) maximum temperature in most of
the districts deviated on the negative side by
Tamil Nadu is located in the Southernmost tip of 0
0.11 to 0.3 C in El Niño years. La Niña years
the Indian Peninsula between 8°5' and 13°35'

Table 1. El Niño, La Niña and neutral years from 1971 to 2013

El Niño La Niña Neutral

1972, 1976, 1977, 1979 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975 1978, 1980, 1981, 1985
1982, 1986, 1987, 1991 1983, 1984, 1988,1995 1989, 1990, 1992, 1993
1994,1997, 2002, 2004 1998, 1999, 2000,2007 1996, 2001, 2003, 2005
2006, 2009 2010, 2011 2008, 2012, 2013

1211
 Temperature deviation (oC)

-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4

Ariyalur
Chennai
Coimbatore
Cuddalore
Dharmapuri
Erode
Dindugal
Kanchipuram
kanyakumari
karur
kirishnagiri
El Niño Anomaly

Madurai
Nagapattinam
Namakal
Nilgiri

1212
Perambalur
Pudukottai
Ramanathapuram
La Niña Anomaly

Salem
Sivagangai
Tanjore
Theni
Tiruppur
Tirunelveli
Thiruvarur
Neutral Anomaly

Trichy
Thothukudi
Thiruvallur
Thiruvannamalai
vellore
Villupuram
Viruthunagar
Fig. 1. Influence of ENSO on Cold Weather Period (CWP) mean maximum temperature over different districts in Tamil Nadu (1971 - 2013)
Rajavel et al.; IJECC, 12(10): 1210-1221, 2022; Article no.IJECC.88887
 Temperature deviation (oC)

-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3

Ariyalur
Chennai
Coimbatore
Cuddalore
Dharmapuri
Erode
Dindugal
Kanchipuram
kanyakumari
karur
El Niño Anomaly

kirishnagiri
Madurai
Nagapattinam
Namakal
Nilgiri

1213
Perambalur
Pudukottai
La Niña Anomaly

Ramanathapuram
Salem
Sivagangai
Tanjore
Theni
Tiruppur
Tirunelveli
Neutral Anomaly

Thiruvarur
Trichy
Thothukudi
Thiruvallur
Thiruvannamalai
vellore
Villupuram
Viruthunagar
Fig. 2. Influence of ENSO on Cold Weather Period (CWP) mean minimum temperature in different districts in Tamil Nadu (1971 - 2013)
Rajavel et al.; IJECC, 12(10): 1210-1221, 2022; Article no.IJECC.88887
 Temperature deviation (oC)

0.05
0.15
0.25

-0.25
-0.15
-0.05
0.1
0.2

-0.2
-0.1
0
Ariyalur
Chennai
Coimbatore
Cuddalore
Dharmapuri
Erode
Dindugal
Kanchipuram
kanyakumari
karur
kirishnagiri
Madurai
El Niño Anomaly

Nagapattinam
Namakal
Nilgiri

1214
Perambalur
Pudukottai
Ramanathapuram
La Niña Anomaly

Salem
Sivagangai
Tanjore
Theni
Tiruppur
Tirunelveli
Neutral Anomaly

Thiruvarur
Trichy
Thothukudi
Thiruvallur
Thiruvannamalai
vellore
Villupuram
Viruthunagar
Fig. 3. Influence of ENSO on Hot Weather Period (HWP) mean maximum temperature over different districts in Tamil Nadu (1971 - 2013)
Rajavel et al.; IJECC, 12(10): 1210-1221, 2022; Article no.IJECC.88887
 Temperature deviation (oC)
0.05
0.15

-0.15
-0.05
0.1

-0.2
-0.1
0
Ariyalur
Chennai
Coimbatore
Cuddalore
Dharmapuri
Erode
Dindugal
Kanchipuram
kanyakumari
karur
kirishnagiri
El Niño Anomaly

Madurai
Nagapattinam
Namakal
Nilgiri
Perambalur
Pudukottai

1215
Ramanathapuram
La Niña Anomaly

Salem
Sivagangai
Tanjore
Theni
Tiruppur
Tirunelveli
Thiruvarur
Neutral Anomaly

Trichy
Thothukudi
Thiruvallur
Thiruvannamalai
vellore
Villupuram
Viruthunagar
Fig. 4. Influence of ENSO on Hot Weather Period (HWP) mean minimum temperature over different districts in Tamil Nadu (1971 - 2013)
Rajavel et al.; IJECC, 12(10): 1210-1221, 2022; Article no.IJECC.88887
 Temperature deviation (oC)

-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40

Ariyalur
Chennai
Coimbatore
Cuddalore
Dharmapuri
Erode
Dindugal
Kanchipuram
kanyakumari
karur
kirishnagiri
El Niño Anomaly

Madurai
Nagapattinam
Namakal
Nilgiri
Perambalur

1216
Pudukottai
Ramanathapuram
La Niña Anomaly

Salem
Sivagangai
Tanjore
Theni
Tiruppur
Tirunelveli
Thiruvarur
Neutral Anomaly

Trichy
Thothukudi
Thiruvallur
Thiruvannamalai
vellore
Villupuram
Viruthunagar
Fig. 5. Influence of ENSO on SWM mean maximum temperature over different districts in Tamil Nadu (1971 - 2013)
Rajavel et al.; IJECC, 12(10): 1210-1221, 2022; Article no.IJECC.88887
 Temperature deviation (oC)

-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20

Ariyalur
Chennai
Coimbatore
Cuddalore
Dharmapuri
Erode
Dindugal
Kanchipuram
kanyakumari
karur
kirishnagiri
El Niño Anomaly

Madurai
Nagapattinam
Namakal

1217
Nilgiri
Perambalur
Pudukottai
Ramanathapuram
La Niña Anomaly

Salem
Sivagangai
Tanjore
Theni
Tiruppur
Tirunelveli
Neutral Anomaly

Thiruvarur
Trichy
Thothukudi
Thiruvallur
Thiruvannamalai
vellore
Villupuram
Viruthunagar
Fig. 6. Influence of ENSO on SWM mean minimum temperature over different districts in Tamil Nadu (1971 - 2013)
Rajavel et al.; IJECC, 12(10): 1210-1221, 2022; Article no.IJECC.88887
 Temperature deviation (oC)

0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15

-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
Ariyalur
Chennai
Coimbatore
Cuddalore
Dharmapuri
Erode
Dindugal
Kanchipuram
kanyakumari
karur
kirishnagiri
El Niño Anomaly

Madurai
Nagapattinam
Namakal
Nilgiri

1218
Perambalur
Pudukottai
Ramanathapuram
La Niña Anomaly

Salem
Sivagangai
districts in Tamil Nadu (1971 - 2013)

Tanjore
Theni
Tiruppur
Tirunelveli
Neutral Anomaly

Thiruvarur
Trichy
Fig. 7. Influence of ENSO on NEM mean maximum temperature over different

Thothukudi
Thiruvallur
Thiruvannamalai
vellore
Villupuram
Viruthunagar
Rajavel et al.; IJECC, 12(10): 1210-1221, 2022; Article no.IJECC.88887
 Temperature deviation (oC)

-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30

Ariyalur
Chennai
Coimbatore
Cuddalore
Dharmapuri
Erode
Dindugal
Kanchipuram
kanyakumari
karur
kirishnagiri
Madurai
El Niño Anomaly

Nagapattinam
Namakal
Nilgiri

1219
Perambalur
Pudukottai
Ramanathapuram
La Niña Anomaly

Salem
Sivagangai
Tanjore
Theni
Tiruppur
Tirunelveli
Thiruvarur
Neutral Anomaly

Trichy
Thothukudi
Thiruvallur
Thiruvannamalai
vellore
Villupuram
Fig. 8. Influence of ENSO on NEM mean minimum temperature over different districts in Tamil Nadu (1971 - 2013)

Viruthunagar
Rajavel et al.; IJECC, 12(10): 1210-1221, 2022; Article no.IJECC.88887
 Rajavel et al.; IJECC, 12(10): 1210-1221, 2022; Article no.IJECC.88887

also recorded negative deviation in maximum period, South West Monsoon and North East
temperature, but to a very small extent of mean Monsoon over Tamil Nadu. ENSO induced
0
deviation of -0.05 C. In contrast to this neutral climate variability does not influenced the crop
0
years exhibited positive deviation around 0.2 C. production.
Similar to maximum temperature, minimum
temperature also deviated on the negative side COMPETING INTERESTS
deviation for the El Niño condition. However, La
0
Niña years had positive deviation up to 0.29 C. Authors have declared that no competing
0
Neutral years had mean deviation of -0.05 C. interests exist.

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