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Probability Practice Set
Statistics for economics
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Probability Practice Set
Statistics for economics
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aa ee turns flipping a coin. The first one to get a head wins. The sample space of this experiment can be defined by gq { 101,001, 0001,...., = | 0000.-- (a) Interpret the sample space. (b) Define the following events in terms of 5: (i) A wins = A. (ii) B wins = B. (ii) (A U BY. Assume that A flips first, then B, then C, then A, and so on.Gaeye A and B are mutually exclusive events for = 3 and P(B) = .5. What is the probabil- ity that (a) either A or B occurs? (b) A occurs but B does not? (c) both A and B occur?13. A certain town with a population of 100,000 has 3 newspapers: I, II, and ITI. The proportions of townspeople who read these papers are as follows: 1:10 percent IandII:8 percent Iand land IIL: 1 percent 11: 30 percent I and IWl: 2 percent IIL percent 1 and IIL: 4 percent (The list tells us, for instance, that 8000 people read news- papers I and Il.) (a) Find the number of people who read only one newspa- per. (b) How many people read at least two newspapers? (© If | and III are morning papers and II is an evening paper, how many people read at least one morning paper plus an evening paper? (@) How many people do not read any newspapers? (e) How many people read only one morning paper and one evening paper?Ginn dice have had two of their sides painted red, two painted black, one painted yellow, and the other painted white. When this pair of dice is rolled, what is the probability that both dice land with the same color face up? 23. Apaitof fair dice is rolled. What is the probability that the second die lands on a higher value than does the first?2 5 red, 6 blue, and 8 green balls If a set of 3 balls is randomly selected, what is the probability that each of the balls will be (a) of the same color? (b) of differ- ent colors? Repeat under the assumption that whenever a ball is selected, its color is noted and it is then replaced in the urn before the next selection. This is known as sam- pling with replacement.32. A group of individuals containing b boys and g girls is lined up in random order; that is, each of the (b + g)! permutations is assumed to be equally likely. What is the probability that the person in the ith position, 1=i=b +g, isa girl?33. GREEA s 20 elk, of which 5 are captured, tagged, and then released. A certain time later, 4 of the 20 elk are captured. What is the probability that 2 of these 4 have been tagged? What assumptions are you making?1 a gives her class a set of 10 problems with the information that the final exam will consist of a ran- dom selection of 5 of them. If a student has figured out how to do 7 of the problems, what is the probability that he or she will answer correctly (a) all S problems? (b) at least 4 of the problems?45. A woman has n keys, of which one will open her door. (a) If she tries the keys at random, discarding those that do not work, what is the probability that she will open the door on her kth try? (b) What if she does not discard previously tried keys?Four individuals have responded to a request by a blood bank for blood donations None of them has donated before, so their blood types are unknown. Suppose only type O+ is desired and only one of the four actually has this type. If the potential donors are selected in random order for typing, what is the probability that at least three individuals must be typed to obtain the desired type? Incidence of a rare disease. Only 1 in 1000 adults is afflicted with a rare disease for which a diagnostic test has been developed. The test is such that when an individual actually has the disease, a positive result will occur 99% of the time, whereas an individual without the disease will show a positive test result only 2% of the time. If a randomly selected individual is tested and the result is positive, what is the proba- bility that the individual has the disease?A friend who lives in Los Angeles makes frequent consult- ing trips to Washington, D.C.; 50% of the time she travels on airline #1, 30% of the time on airline #2, and the remaining 20% of the time on airline #3. For airline #1, flights are late into D.C. 30% of the time and late into L.A. 10% of the time. For airline #2, these percentages are 25% and 20%, whereas for airline #3 the percentages are 40% and 25%. If we learn that on a particular trip she arrived late at exactly one of the two destinations, what are the posterior probabilities of hav- ing flown on airlines #1, #2, and #3?Assume that the chance of a late arrival in L.A. is unaffected by what happens on the flight to D.C. [Hint: From the tip of each first-generation branch on a tree diagram, draw three second-generation branches labeled, respectively, 0 late, 1 late, and 2 late.]An oil exploration company currently has two active proj- ects, one in Asia and the other in Europe. Let A be the event that the Asian project is successful and B be the event that the European project is successful. Suppose that A and B are independent events with P(A) = 4 and P(B) a. If the Asian project is not successful, what is the proba- bility that the European project is also not successful? Explain your reasoning. b. What is the probability that at least one of the two proj- ects will be successful? ¢. Given that at least one of the two projects is successful, what is the probability that only the Asian project is successful?A company that manufactures video cameras produces a basic model and a deluxe model. Over the past year, 40% of the cameras sold have been of the basic model. Of those buying the basic model, 30% purchase an extended warranty, whereas 50% of all deluxe purchasers do so. If you learn that a randomly selected purchaser has an extended warranty, how likely is it that he or she has a basic model?Seventy percent of all vehicles examined at a certain emis- ions inspection station pass the inspection. Assuming that successive vehicles pass or fail independently of one another, calculate the following probabilities: a. P(all of the next three vehicles inspected pass) b. P(at least one of the next three inspected fails) ¢. Plexactly one of the next three inspected passes) d. P(at most one of the next three vehicles inspected passes) e. Given that at least one of the next three vehicles passes inspection, what is the probability that all three pass (a conditional probability)?One percent of all individuals in a certain population are carriers of a particular disease. A diagnostic test for this disease has a 90% detection rate for carriers and a 5% detection rate for noncarriers. Suppose the test is applied independently to two different blood samples from the same randomly selected individual. a. What is the probability that both tests yield the same result? b. If both tests are positive, what is the probability that the selected individual is a carrier?
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